Archive for July, 2010

Can You Win Without Power?

After losing again last night, this time to the Kansas City Royals in a game in which Felix Hernandez took the mound, the Mariners now stand at 34-48. The biggest culprit in their disappointing season is clearly their offense, which is last in the AL in nearly everything related to producing runs. The Mariners’ biggest problem on offense is a total lack of power; they are tied with Oakland for fewest home runs of any American League team, but the A’s have 24 more doubles and nine more triples.

Many people see Seattle’s lack of power and its overall failure as a cause and effect, suggesting that teams that don’t hit the ball out of the park are structurally flawed and can’t win. Rather than just taking this at face value, though, I thought we should look at whether other teams have won without having any real thump in their lineups, compensating by scoring runs in other ways. As it turns out, a number of punchless squads have ended up playing meaningful games in October.

The most recent example of a playoff team that won this way was the 1996 Dodgers. They won 90 games and the NL wild card despite finishing last in the league in slugging percentage with a .384 mark. They managed to score 703 runs on the back of Mike Piazza and a poor supporting cast, though two of the other guys in the lineup, Raul Mondesi (24 homers) and Eric Karros (34 homers), could at least hit the ball over the wall.

If we’re looking for a playoff club that really lacked power, we have to turn the clock back to 1987, when the St. Louis Cardinals won more games (95) than they hit home runs (94). With Vince Coleman, Ozzie Smith and Willie McGee, it was a team built around speed and defense, but the Cards were able to finish second in the NL in runs scored because they got on base (No. 1 in OBP) and ran like the wind (No. 1 in steals). They did have one big-time power hitter, Jack Clark, who accounted for 37 percent of the team’s home run total by himself, but the rest of the lineup was a bunch of slap hitters who were on the team for their defense.

That squad is a good comparison for Seattle, because the M’s were hoping to ride the speed-and-defense model to a division crown. However, their .309 team OBP ranks 13th in the AL. And though they are third in the AL with 75 swipes (and an 80 percent success rate), you can’t steal first base. And unlike the ’87 Cards, they don’t have even one masher. Franklin Gutierrez leads the squad with just eight homers, and Ichiro Suzuki has the highest slugging percentage (.415) of any of their everyday players. Seattle’s team slugging percentage of .349 is the lowest in the AL.

If we’re searching for a team that got to the playoffs without any real big-time power threat, though, we have to go back to the 1973 Mets. They slugged a ridiculous .338 as a team, which was bad even by the lower offensive standards of the time. Their leading home run guy, John Milner, hit 24 bombs but also hit just .239. Rusty Staub, the team’s best hitter, launched only 15 jacks, but he racked up a lot of doubles and walks.

Still, despite being power-starved, that Mets team was able to win the NL East and take the A’s to seven games in the World Series, showing that it is possible to contend without a big-time power bat in the middle of the lineup. However, considering that the Mets won just 83 games in the regular season, they don’t exactly inspire confidence that this plan will always work.

While some teams have been able to get away with a lack of power, it’s rare. The Mariners needed more from Milton Bradley and Jose Lopez, who were being counted on to produce the offensive punch in the middle of the lineup. When they both decided to have the worst years of their careers, the Mariners’ chances for contention went out the window.


Full-Year All-Stars

It’s no secret which guys are having the best seasons so far in 2010 — Robinson Cano, Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Morneau are among those who are off to the races and will certainly be at the All-Star Game in two weeks. But that’s the thing about the Midsummer Classic — the choices are mostly based on who has had the best first half. What if we went back a full year? Here are the best players over the last calendar year, dating back to July 1, 2009? Think of them as the full-year All-Stars.

To choose this team, I took the players at each position with the highest weighted on-base percentage (wOBA) who had enough plate appearances (3.3 per team game) to qualify for a batting title. For pitchers, I used FIP.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Twins — .330/.410/.491, .390 wOBA
No big surprise here, as Mauer’s the best-hitting catcher in the game. However, it should be noted that Arizona’s Miguel Montero has slightly better rate statistics, but doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify. He’s one to keep an eye on now that he’s healthy again.

First base: Albert Pujols, Cardinals — .319/.429/.585, .424 wOBA
Pujols takes the top spot, but you should feel bad for Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Kevin Youkilis — they are the three of the best hitters in baseball over the last 365 days, but because they play the same position as Prince Albert, they can’t crack the top spot.

Second base: Robinson Cano, Yankees — 347/.386/.567, .407 wOBA
Cano’s burst to begin this season has carried his numbers to the top, surpassing both Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley. Not a bad trio of offensive middle infielders.

Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies — .318/.389/.564, .412 wOBA
Move over, Hanley; the Rockies star has taken over as the best-hitting shortstop in the game over the past year. Tulowitzki’s recent wrist injury is going to be a huge problem for Colorado. He is much more than just a slick fielder.

Third base: Alex Rodriguez, New York – .297/.381/.522, .392 wOBA
Rumors of A-Rod’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, as the Yankees third baseman has outhit all other third basemen over the last year. He might not be as good as he was a few years ago, but the guy can still rake.

Left field: Matt Holliday, Cardinals — .326/.395/.547, .404 wOBA
Yeah, I think St. Louis is pleased with how that trade with Oakland has worked out. Holliday’s slow start with the A’s last year is nothing more than a blip on the radar at this point, as he’s gone right back to being the best-hitting left fielder in the game.

Center field: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies — .299/.346/.523, .375 wOBA
Kudos if you guessed this one correctly. He gets overshadowed by some of his teammates, but the slugging center fielder has put up huge numbers for the Rockies over the last year and is one of the reasons they felt comfortable giving Dexter Fowler more time in Triple-A.

Right field: Magglio Ordonez, Tigers — .334/.402/.506, .397 wOBA
Ordonez has certainly rewarded the Tigers for their decision to let his $18 million option vest; he has produced at an elite level even as he advances in age, just edging out Jayson Werth for the top spot on this list.

Designated hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers — .324/.370/.550, .393 wOBA
If the Angels weren’t already regretting their decision to let Guerrero leave and replace him with Hideki Matsui, they certainly are after he hit two more home runs against them Wednesday night. Finally healthy again, Guerrero is once again hitting like the “Impaler” that Anaheim knew and loved for so many years.

Starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright, Cardinals — 2.11 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 3.10 xFIP
He generally doesn’t get mentioned in the conversations about the best pitcher in baseball, but over the last year, he’s outpitched everyone, including Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum.

Relief pitcher: Luke Gregerson, Padres — 2.48 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 2.32 xFIP
The Padres have a great bullpen, but no one has been better than Gregerson, who is simply blowing hitters away on a nightly basis. The Cardinals have done a lot of things right over the last few years, but trading him to San Diego for Khalil Greene was not one of their finer moments.


Florida’s Scapegoat

You can’t fire all the players, the old saying goes, so you fire the manager. He is, after all, the easiest target. When a team performs poorly the front office can point to the guy in charge on the field, the figurehead, as the reason. It is, after all, his job to coax the best possible performances out of his players. If things go wrong, the front office can turn the manager into a symbol for the futility. By getting fans to focus on the symbol, the front office can take the heat off everyone else. And as Tim Kurkjian writes Thursday, the ever-increasing spotlight is making it harder than ever to be a big league skipper.

So far this season, we’ve seen three managers axed. After nearly three years of futility, the Baltimore Orioles finally showed Dave Trembley the door. A team in rebuilding mode, the Orioles probably wouldn’t have kept Trembley much longer anyway. But the team so greatly underperformed its modest expectations that management thought something had to change. Also, the Kansas City Royals fired Trey Hillman after a little more than two years on the job. While the Royals didn’t project to perform very well this season, they figured to be better than the 12-23 mark realized under Hillman. Under Ned Yost they have performed much better.

So it might also seem that the Florida Marlins fell short of expectations under Fredi Gonzalez. They were just 34-36, 7 1/2 games behind the first place Atlanta Braves, when the Marlins announced Gonzalez’s firing. This came as a disappointment after the 87-75, second-place finish from last year, and even the 84-77, third-place finish in 2008. The problem with this comparison is that the 2010 Marlins are not the 2008 or 2009 Marlins. They’re a different team that should carry a different set of expectations. Given the team’s preseason projection, it doesn’t appear that the team underperformed at all.

Using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, here are the Marlins hitters’ projected weighted on-base average (wOBA) against what they have actually produced in 2010.

Only three hitters have come in below expectations. Ramirez, while not hitting to the .410 wOBA he posted last year, still ranks as MLB’s best shortstop. Maybin has since been sent to Triple-A for his poor performance. Cantu hasn’t been far below his projection. Nor has Coghlan, who has hit .316/.387/.502 since April 30. In other words, he has exceeded expectations for the last two months.

The pitchers, too, have been outperforming their projections. Here we can see the Marlins’ five starters and top two relievers projected Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) against what they’ve actually done.

This presents more of the same. A number of pitchers are greatly outpacing their projections. The only pitcher on that list not hitting his projected FIP is Nolasco, who has let a few too many fly balls leave the park. If his HR/FB ratio were around league average his FIP would be 3.95, which is much closer to his projected number.

When ESPN ran a season preview featuring ZiPS projected standings, the Marlins ended up with an average of 74.5 wins. Even rounding up, that’s a .463 winning percentage. Under Gonzalez they were 34-36, a .486 win percentage. It appears, then, that the Marlins have overachieved this season by about four wins, if they kept the pace of their first 70 games. This is nothing new under Gonzalez. The 2009 Marlins outpaced their Pythagorean record by five wins, and the 2008 team beat their Pythagorean record by three.

When he announced Gonzalez’s firing, Marlins President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest, said, “This team seems to be stuck in neutral.” But that doesn’t appear to be Gonzalez’s fault. His team, by all appearances, outperformed expectations in 2010. Yet he became the scapegoat for the Marlins’ inability to even further outpace their expected performance. However, with the team behind in the standings, the front office needed a symbol for Florida’s relative futility. That became Gonzalez — but he didn’t deserve it.