Archive for February, 2012

Mining for Under (and Over) Performers: Strikeouts

A while back, I had a little pet project to try and simplify the process of sniffing out the over- and under-performers relative to strikeout rates. More specifically, recognizing the sometimes wild fluctuations between strikeout rates year to year, I wanted a better idea if a particular pitcher earned their increase (or decrease) in the category. Was there a process — similar to the one we use on ERA with batting average on balls in play and strand rates — that we could go through for strikeout rates?

Obviously, a high swinging strike rate suggests an inherent ability to strike batters out. Makes sense –- you don’t miss many bats, you’re not likely to wind up registering many strikeouts. So using the swinging strike rate to potentially identify the pretenders from the contenders has merit as the season wears on. But I wanted to tighten that up a bit — add variables that would perhaps control for another part of a pitcher’s skill set to help us identify who should reasonably be expected to strike out more, or fewer, batters. And of course, this is with fantasy baseball in mind –- so the idea was that we can all outsmart the next guy relative to the strikeout column.

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Improve Your Control and Break Out

We have come to accept over the past couple of years that for the most part, pitchers have the most control over their strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. It is true that they do have some influence over a few of the metrics we lump into the luck category, but we can still be fairly accurate with our evaluations by just focusing on the three aforementioned core skills.

As fantasy players, we thrive on trying to find this season’s breakouts. Winning your league basically depends on it. The easiest way to identify these pitchers is to look at their peripherals and determine who has the ability to improve upon any of them. Better skills equal better results, assuming all else equal of course.

In my experience playing fantasy baseball and reading studies about the effect aging has on the various peripherals, it seemed pretty clear that pitchers improve their control more frequently than the other underlying skills. Luckily, we don’t have to guess anymore if this is actually the case, as Jeff Zimmerman, researcher extraordinaire, has done the work and the results can be found in this nifty graphic below.

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The Difficulty in Predicting Saves

The basic fantasy baseball stats –- wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts -– may be ultimately flawed in themselves, but once the entire puzzle is put together the best pitchers find their ways to the top of the list. Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez: these guys find themselves at the top of fantasy draft boards and the WAR leaderboards every season.

But oh, the save -– fantasy baseball’s great monkey wrench. The save is a monster in and of itself, as evidenced by the furious Closer Run. Players with little other value find themselves highly coveted simply on the basis of being the one tabbed with finishing out the ninth inning on a nightly basis. With just 30 such jobs available, identifying those prepared to move into that role can determine the balance of power in a league.

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Projections and Playing Through Pain

Fantasy evaluations are based on the player’s statistical projections, no matter what type of league you are in. A key to winning fantasy drafts is to find which players will exceed their projections and then go get them as cheaply as possible. It also follows that hitters that played through injuries the year before could outperform their projections.

One problem with projections is that they take into account the player’s full season of production. If a player persevered through an injury during the season, their overall stats probably suffered. Projections don’t know if a player played through injuries, though. The player’s projections might have been better if the player had simply gone on the disabled list to recover instead of trying to play through pain.

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2012 Batter Profiles: A – C

Bobby Abreu

Debut: 1996 |  BirthDate: 3/11/1974 | Team: Angels | Position: DH
Yr PA H HR SB RBI R AVG OBP SLG wOBA
’10 667 146 20 24 78 88 .255 .352 .435 .348
’11 585 127 8 21 60 54 .253 .353 .365 .325

Profile: Abreu is clearly in the twilight on his career, and the sun could finally set in 2012. With Albert Pujols now taking up Mark Trumbo’s old spot in the Halos lineup, Abreu could be the odd man out should the team choose to go with a slightly more defense-friendly lineup featuring Albert Callaspo at third base. Abreu still knows how to get on base, but at this point in his career, that’s all he can really do. If you think the veteran will get 400 at bats and you need an OBP specialist for some reason or another, Abreu should still be available on the waiver wire, so you won’t need to spend a draft pick on him. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: With Albert Pujols now taking up Mark Trumbo’s old spot in the Halos lineup, Abreu could be the odd man out. At this point, Abreu is just an OBP specialist who should find a comfortable spot on the waiver wire.


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2012 Batter Profiles: D – G

Chase D’Arnaud

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 1/21/1987 | Team: Pirates | Position: 3B/SS
Yr PA H HR SB RBI R AVG OBP SLG wOBA
’11 151 31 0 12 6 17 .217 .242 .287 .247

Profile: D’Arnaud is a high-percentage base thief and bears a passing resemblance to a young George Clooney, so he’s got that going for him. But alas, his bat is more Men Who Stare at Goats-worthy than Ocean’s Eleven-caliber. He’ll see meaningful playing time only if he can pull an inside job and lock Clint Barmes in a clubhouse stall. (David Golebiewski)


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2012 Batter Profiles: H – L

Travis Hafner

Debut: 2002 |  BirthDate: 6/3/1977 | Team: Indians | Position: DH
Yr PA H HR SB RBI R AVG OBP SLG wOBA
’10 462 110 13 2 50 46 .278 .374 .449 .358
’11 368 91 13 0 57 41 .280 .361 .449 .353

Profile: The Pronk of 2004-2006 is gone, but Hafner is re-establishing himself as a viable utility play — when healthy. Last year, the Indians DH hit .280/.361/.449 and added 13 home runs in just 94 games. He’ll likely find himself hitting in the middle of the lineup in 2012, giving him a chance to put up some big RBI numbers, particularly if Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore, two of the players likely to hit in front of him, can stay healthy and get on base. Expecting much more than 100 games is not advised, and his lack of positional eligibility severely limits his value, but Hafner is useful if you use him correctly, particularly against righties. In 2011, he hit over .300 vs right-handers, with a .180 ISO. He probably isn’t destined to be your everyday Util, but as part of a platoon, or as a bench option, particularly in deeper leagues, he is worth owning. (Chad Young)

Quick Opinion: He may not be the all-world hitter he was a few years back, but Hafner has re-established himself as a solid designated hitter. Particularly if you can play him only against righties, you can expect a high average, solid power, and decent RBI numbers.


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2012 Batter Profiles: M – R

Mitch Maier

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 6/30/1982 | Team: Royals | Position: OF
Yr PA H HR SB RBI R AVG OBP SLG wOBA
’10 421 98 5 3 39 41 .263 .333 .375 .314
’11 113 22 0 1 7 19 .232 .345 .337 .312

Profile: Mitch “MITCH” Maier is a favorite among some circles of Royals internet fandom, but do not mistake comedy and parody for fantasy potential. Maier is a servicable fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues, but he really does not walk that much (careful with that 2011 sample size!), has little power, and does not hit for average. Oh, and he only got 113 plate appearances in 2011 despite spending the whole year on the the Major League roster. Assuming the Royals do not find a better or cheaper bench option between now and Opening Day, he might see more time if someone gets hurt or if Lorenzo Cain completely bombs (a distinct possibility), but even then MITCH or someone roughly equivalent should be available on waivers. (Matt Klaasen)

Quick Opinion: Incredibly, Mitch Maier may still be on the Royals’ roster as a reserve outfielder in 2012. He should not be on yours.


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2012 Batter Profiles: S – Z

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 5/2/1985 | Team: Red Sox | Position: C
Yr PA H HR SB RBI R AVG OBP SLG wOBA
’10 30 4 0 0 2 2 .167 .333 .292 .296
’11 386 84 16 1 56 52 .235 .288 .450 .319

Profile: It was a strange season for Saltalamacchia. In April and September, his OPS was below .600 but it averaged .835 for the four months in between. That OPS is buoyed by a high slugging percentage, seeing as he walked just 6.2 percent of the time. Also, among catchers with a minimum of 300 plate appearances his .215 isolated slugging percentage ranked fourth. He’ll likely still receive the majority of time behind the plate in 2012, but may be platooned more with newly acquired Kelly Shoppach. He’s never hit left-handed pitching particularly well, despite switch-hitting. He’s not among the top fantasy catchers, but should provide a solid back-up option with 15-20 home run power. (Erik Hahmann)

Quick Opinion: Salty’s main obstacle will be playing time. Expect him to top out around ~100 games and ~325 plate appearances. The power is very real, with a 20 home run season a real possibility.


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2012 Pitcher Profiles: A – F

Alfredo Aceves

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 12/8/1981 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP
’10 3 0 1 12 1.5 3.0 0.8 3.00 1.17 5.08
’11 10 2 2 114 6.3 3.3 0.6 2.61 1.11 4.03

Profile: Aceves was a great find for the Boston Red Sox as he very much served as handy adhesive when pieces were falling off all over the Red Sox staff. Aceves gave them 114 innings of work, mostly in relief, but also four spot starts, posting a 2.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 6.32 strikeout rate. He benefited somewhat by a high strand rate and low home run rate, reflected in part in his 4.77 xFIP, but Aceves produced good results nonetheless. There’s some rumor of his joining the rotation in 2012, but that seems unlikely given his peripherals and pedigree. Aceves enters 2012 as a likely decent source of holds, and a dual-eligibility pitcher, but little more. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: Unless he joins the rotation, Aceves will have limited value as a sixth and seventh inning option and occasional emergency starter unless you’re in a holds league — and even then, don’t do somersaults when you draft him.


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