For those readers without a rooting interest in the National League Central, you might be surprised to learn that the perennially strong St. Louis Cardinals currently have company atop the division standings. Your first inkling might be: Is it the Chicago Cubs and their $147 million payroll? Actually, no. Well, what about the 2008 wild card-winning Milwaukee Brewers? Guess again.

With their 7-5 win versus Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Cincinnati Reds now stand at 26-19, tied with St. Louis. Whether Cincy’s success will last, it’s hard to say. How the Reds have gotten where they are — that’s easier to understand.

The answer is offense.

As you can see in the following table, the Reds are currently scoring runs at a faster pace than they did in 2009. After ranking 11th among 16 NL teams in runs scored last season, the Reds are currently ranked fifth in that category.

Reds' runs scored and run allowed
YEAR	RS	Rk	RA	Rk
2009	673	11th	723	8th
2010	217	5th	212	12th

Yet raw run totals don’t necessarily tell the whole story. Otherwise, one might assume — seeing that the Reds have slipped four spots in terms of runs allowed — that they had simply offset their offensive gains with defensive shortcomings.

In fact, that’s not the case. If we look at the club’s batting and pitching wins above replacement numbers (bWAR and pWAR in the table below) for last year and for the season to date, we find that Cincinnati’s pitching has actually stayed relatively consistent (10th last season; 11th this year) while the batting is significantly better.

Reds' wins above replacement
YEAR	bWAR	Rk	pWAR	Rk
2009	9.5	15th	10.4	10th
2010	6.7	5th	4.5	11th

What does WAR tell us that pure stat of runs scored doesn’t? Well, a couple important things. For one, WAR is park-adjusted. Seeing as Cincinnati’s home field, Great American Ballpark, plays as a hitter’s park, it makes sense that their pure run totals might be inflated. Secondly, WAR is context neutral. That means it only considers what a given batter does at the plate, thus teasing out the effects of so-called “clutch” hitting, which demonstrates high degrees of variance season to season.

In any case, it’s pretty clear that it’s the Reds’ offense that has helped them get where they are.

The logical question then is: From where are the Reds getting all this production? The answer: Basically from everyone. Though OPS+ isn’t a perfect measure — it’s generally acknowledged that it undervalues the importance of on-base, as opposed to slugging, percentage — it’s very helpful for understanding where a player stands relative to league average — and where players stand relative to each other.

The following table gives the OPS+ numbers at each position for Cincy’s batters this year as opposed to last.

Reds OPS by position
Pos	2009	2010	Diff
as C	90	125	35
as 1B	112	134	22
as 2B	106	118	12
as 3B	78	120	42
as SS	77	104	27
as LF	84	126	42
as CF	74	74	0
as RF	105	94	-11

With the exception of right field (where they’ve dropped 11 percent relative to league average) and center (where they’ve broken even), the Reds are consistently improved across the board. In particular, third base (where Scott Rolen is currently hitting .287/.353/.581) and left field (where Jonny Gomes has taken over the majority of playing time) have proven to be significant improvements over their 2009 counterparts.

Monday night was no different. On the strength of 10 hits, five walks and a couple of 3-for-4 performances from Orlando Cabrera and Drew Stubbs, the Reds showed the Pittsburgh Pirates what they’ve been showing the National League these first 40 or so games: an improved ability to push runners across the plate.

Pop quiz: Under what circumstances is it reasonable to be excited about a pitcher who posted a 6.12 ERA last season?

Answer: When that pitcher is Texas Rangers left-hander Derek Holland.

Derek Holland’s first season in the Majors was superficially poor. He went 8-13 with 26 homers allowed and had a 6.12 ERA. But look a little bit closer, at the events over which Holland — or any pitcher — exerts the most control, and the young lefty’s season has to be considered a success.

He posted a strikeout rate of 6.96 K/9, a walk rate of only 3.06 BB/9, and induced ground balls on 41.5 percent of balls in plays (only slightly below league average of around 43 percent). All that added up to a 4.38 xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, normalized for home-run rate), which is designed to look like ERA, but removes all the elements of luck. For a 22-year-old in his big league debut, a 4.38 xFIP is excellent.

So what’s the disconnect here? Basically everything that could go wrong for Holland did go wrong. His batting average on balls in play was .321, compared to a league average right around .300. His left-on-base percentage (a.k.a. strand rate) came in at 64.7 percent, below a typical figure of 70 percent. Home runs per fly ball? Yep, he got unlucky there, too, conceding homers on about 15 percent of fly balls, even while the average pitcher finds his number settling somewhere in the range of 10 percent. These are all elements of pitching that the pitcher has little control over. When these stats deviate heavily from the norm, it usually points to luck.

All of which is why there was some confusion among the sabermetric ranks when Texas opted to begin the season with the less talented Matt Harrison in the big league rotation while Holland got sent down to Triple-A. Such confusion was justified: Holland breezed his way through six Pacific Coast League starts (38 2/3 IP, 37 strikeouts, seven walks — good for a 2.44 xFIP). Over six starts of his own, Harrison struggled, posting a mediocre 4.82 xFIP before finding his way to the 15-day disabled list with bicep tendinitis.

Yesterday, making his season debut in Harrison’s vacated rotation spot against the A’s, Holland pitched like the guy we could have expected. He went six innings, struck out seven, walked one, and induced grounders on over half of his balls in play. He didn’t allow a run and earned him a much-deserved win.

If Holland is able to come close to matching last night’s performance in his next start — most likely next Monday, at home, versus the struggling Angels — he is almost certain to take Harrison’s spot. Such a course of events would be quite intriguing, as it should give the Rangers — along with Colby Lewis, Rich Harden, C.J. Wilson, and Scott Feldman — one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.

Most baseball fans — even those who count themselves among the TMI readership — were probably a little surprised to find that someone named Colby Lewis had not only signed with the Texas Rangers this offseason, but was immediately considered a prime candidate for a starting rotation. If the name sounded somewhat familiar, it’s because Lewis entered 2010 with over 200 Major League innings under his belt, having made appearances at the highest level every year but one from 2002 to 2007. As for the quality of those innings, well, you be the judge.

In 217 innings, Lewis had a 6.71 ERA with 155 strikeouts with 124 walks. He was awful. But after a couple of years playing in Japan, he showed the kind of stuff that made him a supplemental first-round pick of the Rangers back in 1999, as he had eight strikeouts for every one walk while playing for Hiroshima.

Lewis’s numbers in Japan certainly impressed a couple of the projection systems we host at FanGraphs. Sean Smith’s CHONE projections call for Lewis to end 2010 with 167 innings, a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projects Lewis for a 4.39 ERA in 176 innings. Not incredible, but still serviceable when one considers Lewis’s home ballpark (which ranks among the top-third of all parks in run inflation).

Yesterday’s start in Cleveland, however, might create even loftier expectations. Obviously, small sample size caveats abound here, but Lewis’s final line against the Indians was excellent. In 5 1/3 innings, he struck out 10, walked four, and allowed just two runs. Remarkably, those 10 whiffs came against just 24 batters faced, meaning Lewis fanned more than 40 percent of opposing batters.

Of particular note are the 15 swings-and-misses Lewis generated on the night. In a study published last summer, Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing finds that there is a great deal of correlation between swinging strikes and strikeout rates. Starting pitchers, on average, induce a swing and miss a little more than eight percent of the time. Last year’s strikeout leaders Tim Lincecum and Justin Verlander finished 2009 with swinging-strike rates of about 11 percent. Last night, Lewis managed to generate whiffs on a full 13 percent of his pitches.

Does this mean we can expect to find Lewis’s name among the list of strikeout leaders by year’s end? My guess is no. But he could still be a success without striking out 200 batters. In any case, his is a compelling story, and one that will be a pleasure to follow for the remainder of the 2010 season.

This will be Jake Peavy’s first full season with the Chicago White Sox, and it’s well documented that his new home ballpark, U.S. Cellular, inflates home run totals while his former park, Petco Park, suppresses them quite a bit. So we should expect Peavy to give up more home runs — but how many more?

One way to answer the question is to look at the home run per fly ball rates, or HR/FB, of each park relative to Peavy’s fly-ball numbers. We know fly-ball rates normalize more quickly than simple home run rates, and pitchers generally allow homers on about 11 percent of their fly balls. So this approach allows us to take a pretty nuanced look at the problem.

A study by Dan Turkenkopf of The Hardball Times shows us that “The Cell” and Petco have HR/FB indices of 118 and 75, respectively. What that means is that if you multiply those numbers by .11 (percentage of all fly balls that become homers), you discover that about 13 percent of fly balls become homers in Chicago, versus only about 8.25 percent in San Diego.

Before we see how that affects Peavy, let’s look at his record with the Padres.

Peavy away from Petco Park
Season	HR	FB	HR/FB
2004	9	81	11.1%
2005	6	82	7.3%
2006	11	110	10.0%
2007	8	102	7.8%
2008	13	75	17.3%
2009	3	27	7.9%
Total	50	477	10.5%

Peavy at Petco Park
Season	HR	FB	HR/FB
2004	4	81	4.9%
2005	12	105	11.4%
2006	12	130	9.2%
2007	5	121	4.1%
2008	4	100	4.0%
2009	4	53	8.1%
Total	41	590	6.9%

We see a couple of things here. First, Peavy benefited from Petco’s home-run suppression, as seen by his lower HR/FB rate. Also, he gave up a greater number of fly balls at Petco. The latter is due to a significant imbalance in his innings-pitched home/away splits between 2004 and 2009: 591 innings at Petco versus only 458 innings away.

Therefore, we need to figure out how many fly balls Peavy allows on average. Since 2004, he’s allowed 477 flies in 458 away innings (1.04 FB/IP) and 590 flies in 591 home innings (1.00 FB/IP). Basically, he allows almost exactly one fly ball per inning.

If we project Peavy to throw 200 innings, split equally between The Cell and opposing parks, we get something like this:

Home: 100 IP = 100 FB at 13% HR/FB = 13 HR (1.17 HR/9)
Away: 100 IP = 100 FB at 11% HR/FB = 11 HR (0.99 HR/9)
Total: 200 IP = 200 FB = 24 HR (1.08 HR/9)

Of course, this isn’t a stone-cold lock. There are other variables to consider, such as the fact that he is moving to a league with a designated hitter, but 24 is a legitimate estimate.

How does that compare to his usual numbers? Well, since 2004, when Petco opened, Peavy has posted a 0.77 HR/9 rate, meaning that, in any given 200 innings, he’d allow about 17 home runs.

So over 200 innings, Peavy should give up around seven more homers than he did with the Padres. That’s enough to give his ERA a bit of a bump but not enough to prevent him from remaining an elite pitcher.

In the 1991 edition of his Baseball Book, Sabermetric Baby Daddy Bill James includes a long section called Basic Questions. Here’s how he introduces it:

What I’ve tried to do… is talk about, write about, as many of the things which are on the minds of the average baseball fan as I can. For each player, I tried to find the basic questions about each major league player. The basic questions about Daryl Strawberry: How’s he going to do in Los Angeles? How will he hit in Dodger Stadium? How much will his loss hurt the Mets? How much will he help LA? What are his career totals going to be? Is he going to hit 500 home runs in his career? 600? How many?

He then proceeds, for 180 giant, three-columned pages, to do just that. The product is excellent, vintage James, whether he’s warning us to appreciate Eric Davis, almost pinky-swearing us that Lance Dickson will be a star (he pitched 14 innings in the majors), or referring to Luis Encarnacion of Kansas City as “the Rodney Dangerfield of the Royals’ organization.”

There are also kinda mean entries, such as this, in re Jerry Kutzler of the White Sox:

Who is he?

Right-handed starting pitcher, pitched well for Tampa in 1988. I don’t expect him to be a major league starting pitcher, ever.

Ever. Ouch.

And then there’s this in re Baltimore’s Jose Mesa, which is just awesome:

Can he pitch in the major leagues?

Can a bear perform heart surgery? I guess you never know unless you give him a scalpel and stand back.

In what follows, I’ve stolen James’s Basic Questions format to look at some players on the periphery of baseballing relevance. Most of the players here would likely make decent fantasy plays given the opportunity, but that hasn’t been my only concern in composing this list. For example, I don’t look at some of the standard metrics. And I don’t even pretend to guess at something like pitcher wins. This might be a case of wanting my cake and eating it, too. But to that I say: why else would a person want cake besides for eating it? Cake is good for little else.

A couple notes before I begin. First, where James writes that he is attempting to address questions that the “average baseball fan” might have, I have attempted, in what follows, to anticipate and answer questions that a FanGraphs reader might have. Basically, what that means is I use some metrics (wOBA, wRC+, xFIP) that are used pretty commonly on FanGraphs. Also, it means that I take for granted that names like Garrett Jones and Matt Thornton – that is, players without much public exposure – are at least somewhat familiar.

Second point: While I’d guess that most fans share an intuitive understanding of “fringe,” let’s say, for the sake of clarity, that “fringe” players are those who:

(a) had something like a starting job but underperformed their probable skill levels pretty badly, or

(b) had something more like a part-time role but would probably play well in an expanded role, or

(c) are minor leaguers but, for one reason or another – age, draft pedigree, injury, failures at the Major League level – aren’t exactly what you’d call prospects.

For whatever reason, pitchers seem to skew younger among this category of player. I don’t know why that is, exactly, but were I forced, at gun-point, to hazard a guess, I’d say (a) why is this such an important question that you feel the need to threaten me with violence, and (b) maybe it’s because starters who fail are generally regulated to reliever status.

Finally, in a bow to the roto-minded, I’ve organized the players according to the standard fantasy roster: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P. Here’s the result:

C: Brayan PENA, Kansas City

What sort of name is Brayan?

I’m sure I’m not qualified to answer that sort of question.

Okay, then, how about this one: Who the flip is Brayan Pena?

Last year, he was back-up to the back-up catcher in Kansas City.

That doesn’t really sound like much of a distinction.

No, but you have to remember that, in Kansas City, every day is Opposite Day. Pena has a career line-drive rate of 20.5%. He doesn’t strike out too much. He’d probably hit 10-12 homers with something like a regular job. He’d probably post a league-average wOBA. Around .335 or so, at least.

I don’t care what you say. What’s the word from CHONE and ZiPS?

Pretty good, actually. CHONE says .282/.326/.415. ZiPS says .281/.328/.413. Confucius say… nothing. Not about baseball, at least.

1B: Garrett JONES, Pittsburgh

The career minor leaguer who raked for Pittsburgh last year?

Right.

He played well, but how do I know that wasn’t luck?

He posted a wRC+ of 147 (.396 wOBA) in 358 plate appearances, and only his home-run rate (21.2% HR/FB) was really out of place relative to his minor league numbers. Cut that down to 15% and you still have an above-average hitter, with maybe a .350 wOBA. CHONE and ZiPS agree.

You put him at first base, but he played more games in right field last year.

You’re right. He played 39 games in right versus only 30 at first last year. But I had three outfielders I wanted to pick and no first basemen. The Pirates have the same flexibility with both Jeff Clement and Brandon Moss hanging round.

2B: Ryan ROBERTS, Arizona

Remind me again who he is.

The guy who took over at second in Arizona after Felipe Lopez was sent to Milwaukee.

How’d he play?

Actually, a little bit better than Lopez. All told, Roberts finished with a .348 wOBA, while Lopez posted a .341 during his time in Phoenix. Consider, too, that Lopez posted a significantly higher BABIP (.350 versus Roberts’ .321), and there’s reason to believe that Arizona played its cards right.

Will he start this year?

Entering the offseason, it seemed like maybe not. But then it seemed like, yes, maybe he would. But then Arizona signed Kelly Johnson. So, probably not, no. Not right away at least.

3B: Edwin ENCARNACION, Toronto

Are you serious? He hit like caca for Cincinnati and Toronto last year.

Or did he? The only thing that really changed was his BABIP, which checked in at .249. Relative to his career mark of .290, that’s pretty low. Relative to his line-drive rate of 17.5%, it’s also pretty low.

So say he comes back with a .290 or so BABIP. What then?

Probably a wOBA of .355 or .360. Probably 20-25 homers.

Okay, that’s fine. But isn’t he a kinda sucky infielder?

Almost assuredly, yes. He’s got an UZR/150 of -12.3 for his career at third base. If you’re the club that’s paying him, that’s not so great. From a fantasy perspective, though, it’s not really a problem. The closest thing to competition at third base is from new acquisition Brett Wallace. By all accounts, Wallace is an even worse third baseman.

SS: Khalil GREENE, Texas

Khalil Greene? Is this a preview for 2010 or for 2004 I’m reading?

So far as I know, 2010. If not, something has gone horribly awry.

But Greene was terrible last year.

Actually, not really. His strikeout rate (20.6%) was lower than it’s been for a while, his walk rate (8.1%) was as high as it’s been for a while, and his infield fly-ball rate (2.9%) was almost non-existent. The problem was that he had .217 BABIP. That’s real low. Normalize his numbers for something like a league-average BABIP, and he becomes a league-average hitter.

Why did he have so few plate appearances last year?

Well, the perception of him playing poorly, for one. And for two, he had problems with social anxiety disorder. Still, he came back from the latter and hit .345/.368/.618 in 57 rehab plate appearances at Triple-A – with only a .319 BABIP, which suggests that he was making excellent contact, as opposed to getting super lucky.

OF: Seth SMITH, Colorado

What’d he do last year, again?

Hit, field, and do everything else like a starting Major League outfielder: .383 wOBA, 16.2 UZR/150 in about 80 games in left field.

Sure that’s a high wOBA, but wOBA’s not park-adjusted, and Smith plays at Coors.

You’re right, it isn’t, but wRC+ is, and he posted a 129 wRC+, which compares very favorably to starting right-fielder Brad Hawpe’s 130 wRC+. When you consider that Hawpe is a legitimately awful fielder (-21.6 UZR/150 since 2004), then there’s barely a contest in terms of overall value.

Then why isn’t he a starter?

A couple reasons. For one, the Rockies have legitimate outfield depth. Besides Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Ryan Spilborghs all makes legitimate claims to playing time. For two, well… I don’t know. Regardless, it’s a fact: if he’s anything like a starter in 2010, he’ll put up great numbers.

OF: Andruw JONES, Chicago (A.L.)

Surely he doesn’t play baseball anymore.

Actually, he does, although you’re excused for thinking as much. Three years ago, he was bad. Two years ago, he was really bad. Last year, though, he was actually kinda good as a DH for Texas, posting a 104 wRC+ despite a horrifically low .224 BABIP.

Alright, but look: he faced lefties almost exclusively. Wouldn’t he be exposed in a larger role?

Well, for one, he actually faced more righties than lefties (181 PAs, versus only 150 against LHPs). For two, Jones’s career platoon split (.256/.331/.485 versus righties, .261/.361/.499 v lefties) is almost exactly what you’d expect from any sort of right-handed batter.

Can he really still play the field?

He’s declined, for sure, but on account of his peak being so high, he’s probably still league-average in a corner. He does seem injury-prone, though, so maybe he’s best as a part-time fielder.

OF: Jody GERUT, Milwaukee

Describe him in three words.

Here they are: the disappearing man. Now here are some other ones: Gerut played well in 2003-04, declined afterwards, and left baseball… until 2008, when he hit .296/.351/.494 while playing half his games at Petco. Then, last year, he appeared to decline again, batting .230/.279/.376 in limited plate appearances between San Diego and Milwaukee.

Why’s he on this list then?

Like many of the guys here, he was the victim of bad luck. In this case, a .243 BABIP. Other than that, he has the profile of a league-average hitter.

Why’d Milwaukee acquire him just to bench him?

[Insert sound of crickets chirping.]

What are his chances of playing this year?

Cameron’s gone from Milwaukee, but Carlos Gomez has arrived. Signs point to Gomez starting. He’s worth 1.5 wins afield, which is probably the reason why, but Gerut is a better offensive player.

SP: Felipe PAULINO, Houston

I’m not one for old-timey metrics, but come on: dude was 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA.

Dude had 93 strikeouts versus only 37 walks in 97.2 innings last year. Dude had a 4.10 xFIP. Dude also finished second among starters (50+ IP) in his rate of swings and misses outside of the zone – something that correlates highly with strikeouts.

Oh. What happened, then?

Take your pick: .368 BABIP. 16.9% HR/FB. 67.6% LOB (versus a league average of 71.9%).

What’s his role for 2010?

He was slated as the fifth starter until the signing of Brett Myers. It’s hard to believe that Houston likes Brian Moehler more than Paulino.

P: Sean GALLAGHER, San Diego

What’s the difference between him and Chad Gaudin?

Gallagher has never had absurd facial hair. Not recently, at least.

Why am I getting them mixed up, then?

Because each of them, despite being pretty young, has played for Chicago (N.L.), Oakland, and San Diego. Gallagher was also sent to Oakland in the deal that sent Gaudin and Rich Harden to the Cubs.

What’s Gallagher gonna do in 2010?

Benefit immensely from Petco, for one. Gallagher’s posted a 35.8% groundball rate in 150 Major League innings. In Petco, that equals fewer home runs and lot of outs. CHONE and ZiPS agree, projecting ERAs of 3.97 and 3.98, respectively.

RP: Luke GREGERSON, San Diego

Remind me.

He pitched 75 nutso relief innings for San Diego last year, finishing with 93 strikeouts, only 31 walks, and only three home runs-allowed. That was good for a 3.11 xFIP.

You say “three home runs” like it’s a big deal, but he pitched in Petco.

Petco obviously helps – nor should a fantasy owner ever lose sight of that fact. But Gregerson has a good sinker, too. He had a 45.7% ground-ball rate in 2009. His minor league ground-ball rate was almost 60% even.

How does he get all the strikeouts?

A nasty slider. Among the 214 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings last year, only Mike Wuertz and Carlos Marmol threw the slider more often. And Gregerson finished second among relievers in terms of runs-saved-above-average on the slider.

RP: Brandon LEAGUE, Seattle

He’s been around for a while without really impressing. Why do you like him for 2010?

The best three things a pitcher can do are (a) strike hitters out, (b) not walk them, and (c) force hitters, in the event that they do make contact, to hit the ball on the ground. League does all those things well – better than most people in the Major Leagues, as his 2009 line testifies: 74.2 IP, 76 K, 21 BB, 55.7% GB.

Those are the best things a pitcher can do?

Well, I guess not. The best things are probably, like, give blood or live an authentic life or something like that.

That’s deep, yo.

Duly noted.

P: Billy BUCKNER, Arizona

Billy Buckner, huh? Do the editors of FanGraphs know that you drink heavily while writing these articles?

First of all, “heavily” is a subjective term. Second of all, Buckner posted a 3.95 xFIP. CHONE has him with a 4.58 ERA in 2010 through 167 innings.

What’s the deal with last year’s 6.40 ERA then?

Same thing as Felipe Paulino, except almost even worse: .347 BABIP, 16.7% HR/FB, and a spectacularly unlucky 63.2% LOB.

Oh, and why do you only cite CHONE above? Is it because ZiPS says he bites?

No, it’s because his ZiPS projection wasn’t released before printing. I swear.

P: Garrett MOCK, Washington

I’m suspicious. Guess why.

Probably because, over the last two years, Mock has gone back and forth – between levels and roles. Also, his traditional numbers (like his 3-10, 5.62 in 2009) have been kinda meh. Also, because you’ve barely ever heard of Garrett Mock.

That’s pretty good. So why’s he here?

Because, regardless of where he’s been or in what role, his peripherals have always been promising. In 2008, he had an xFIP of 3.90, mostly in relief. In 2009, it was 4.49, mostly as a starter. He gets strikeouts and ground balls. Ta-da!

What’ll he do in 2010?

He’s slated to begin the season in the rotation, probably as the fourth starter. As a fantasy player, he may not produce wins (see: Nationals, Washington), but he can do some things.

P: Matt THORNTON, Chicago (A.L.)

What’s his deal?

HE’S REALLY FLIPPING GOOD!

OMG, stop shouting.

Okay, but he’s really good. In 2008? BAM!: a 2.75 xFIP. In 2009? BAM!: 2.46 xFIP. In 2010?

Don’t say “BAM.” Please.

Fine, but you get the idea. Basically, he profiles like a left-handed and more svelte version of Heath Bell. He’d be a great closer.

Overall team outlook: A couple years ago, Milwaukee was situated as one of baseball’s more exciting teams, with a crop full of young, cost-controlled players. Now, with some departed (J.J. Hardy), some about to become expensive (Prince Fielder), and some plagued by injury (Rickie Weeks), the future is maybe a little less bright in Beer City.

The Starting Rotation: Yovani Gallardo’s 185.2 innings in 2009 outpaced his previous high (from 2007) by 75 innings. A similar workload, combined with a drop in walks (he averaged 4.56 per nine last season), could place him among the Majors’ elite starters. Randy Wolf’s production hasn’t really ever been the problem; it’s been his health. Last year marked the first time he’s hit 200 innings since 2003. Note that Miller Park shouldn’t be as friendly to his ERA as Dodger Stadium. Doug Davis is a bit of a poor man’s Randy Wolf – just with one more walk and one fewer strikeout per nine. Jeff Suppan was, at one point, the definition of league-average. Last year, he had a 1.08 K/BB ratio. Ick. The last spot in the rotation is mostly up for grabs. Manny Parra is a lefty with velocity and sink (48.7% career ground-ball rate) but serious control issues. David Bush’s 4.79 xFIP from 2009 is a lot better than 6.38 ERA he posted.

The Bullpen: The only real way to know Trevor Hoffman’s true age is to cut him in half and count the rings inside. Until he stops striking out eight per nine and saving 40 or so games per season, it’s unlikely that he or the Milwaukee Brewers will let anyone do that. When Hoffman’s not feeling up to it, Todd Coffey is a good candidate to pick up a save or two. The reliever finally lived up to his peripherals in 2009, posting a 2.90 ERA. Unfortunately for everyone, Mark DiFelice had surgery in early December to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Hopefully, he and his cut fastball return in 2011.

The Starting Lineup: If you’re a Brewer fan, you’ll hope Manager Ken Macha is able to resist the temptation of batting either of his speediest speed merchants, Alcides Escobar or Carlos Gomez, at the top of the order, as neither is likely to get on base enough to warrant the extra plate appearances. Both will likely provide 20+ stolen bases in something like a full-time role. In lieu of either, Rickie Weeks – returning from another serious-ish injury – will most likely assume the leadoff role for 2010. Corey Hart batted second more often than anywhere else in the lineup last year – a bit of an oddity considering his questionable plate discipline (although his walk rate is considerably higher in the two-hole than anywhere else in the lineup). Ryan Braun frightens opposing pitchers and is possibly still getting better. Prince Fielder frightens pitchers, too, and is possibly still getting bigger*. Expect Casey McGehee’s BABIP to regress from the .335 he posted last year, perhaps making his hold on the fifth spot somewhat tenuous. Gregg Zaun is a useful option at catcher while prospects Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome develop in the high minors.

*Obligatory weight comment

The Bench: Like Kanye West, Jody Gerut is curious as to why you won’t let him be great. In the meantime, he’ll play a back-up role in the outfield along with grizzled vet Jim Edmonds. If the Carlos Gomez Experiment fails, either guy could be in line for more plate appearances. Craig Counsell ditched his funny batting stance in 2009 but also posted a 2.8 WAR as the Brewer infield slowly fell apart. He might very well be the Practically Perfect Utility Player.

Overall team outlook: Though unlikely to compete in 2010, the Orioles organization is building a core of young, talented players who will make the team interesting for the next few years. In the meantime, a couple of curious veteran signings are bound to raise questions about the savvy of the front office.

The Starting Rotation: New acquisition Kevin Millwood will be the nominal No. 1 in 2010, and the move from Texas might have a somewhat tonic effect on his numbers. Jeremy Guthrie lost 17 games in 2009, and, even more worrisome, saw his strikeout rate fall below 5.00 K/9 and ground-ball rate below 35%. CHONE projects a slight rebound, but the outlook isn’t fantastic. Brad Bergesen isn’t necessarily a sweet fantasy play with his 4.5 or so strikeouts per nine, but he avoids walks and gets ground balls at about a 50% clip, which should give him success as a Major Leaguer.

Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman were, until last year, the most promising pitching prospects (say that five times fast) in the organization. This year, the O’s hope that they develop into the most productive pitchers on the staff. Despite an underwhelming 100 innings in 2009, David Hernandez remains an interesting case, due to his excellent minor league strikeout numbers.

The Bullpen: Flush with cash entering the offseason, Baltimore signed Mike Gonzalez to two-year deal worth $12 million. Gonzalez has fantastic stuff – there’s no ignoring it – but the wisdom of such a decision is questionable, as (a) Gonzalez is an injury risk, and (b) that sort of money might’ve made sense elsewhere on the roster. Jim Johnson closed games last year after Baltimore shipped George Sherrill to Los Angeles. Reliever Cla Meredith has a wacky 67.1% ground-ball rate for his career.

The Starting Lineup: Brian Roberts remains a fixture at the top of the Baltimore lineup. CHONE and ZiPS both like him to sustain about a .360 OBP and steal 30 bases. Adam Jones is in a race with Chris Tillman to embarrass former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi, who orchestrated the Erik Bedard trade a couple seasons ago. He raked last year before injury curtailed his production. Nick Markakis’ 113 wRC+ last year didn’t live up to his excellent 2008. He’s signed through 2014, so the Baltimore front office will be crossing their collective fingers.

Miguel Tejada returns to the site of at least some of his conquests. His walk rate slipped to troublingly low levels in Houston. Basically, as his batting average goes, so goes Tejada. Acquired by Baltimore in the trade that sent Tejada to Houston in the first place, Luke Scott is a useful piece – and a better fielder than the DH label would suggest. Oh, Garrett Atkins. Nolan Reimold took advantage of his first shot at Major League pitching, posting a 123 wRC+. An Achilles injury apparently harassed him for much of last season. Not everyone believes in God; Matt Wieters, on the other hand… Cesar Izturis is hanging around for his glove. He’s actually been worth about a win afield each of these last three years.

The Bench: Ty Wigginton is a unique back-up infielder in that he plays all infield positions with equal levels of mediocrity. You can say this for him: he can hit. As Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold dealt with injury last season, Felix Pie demonstrated why he was once a highly rated prospect in the Cubs’ system, flashing the leather to the tune of 6.9 runs above average in less than half of a season’s worth of playing time. He enters 2010 as Baltimore’s fourth outfielder.

Overall team outlook: Last year marked the first season since 2004 that Texas posted a winning record. A group of promising, cost-controlled players (Nelson Cruz, Julio Borbon, Elvis Andrus) and an improved pitching staff (including Rich Harden) should help the club remain competitive while preserving fiscal sanity.

The Starting Rotation: Last year, Rich Harden was the best of all starters at making batters swing and miss. That’s a pretty good skill for a pitcher to have. Of course, he’s also a perpetual injury candidate. The only question for the Rangers, who signed the righty for $7.5MM plus incentives, is: “Do you feel lucky?” Scott Feldman probably won’t win 17 games in 2010. That said, his cutter should continue to depress his BABIP numbers and control lefties. Derek Holland is better than his 6.12 ERA. He should strike out more than seven per nine while walking about three. Last year’s 4.38 xFIP is probably more likely as 2010’s ERA.

Young Tommy Hunter’s 4.10 ERA last season is a bit surprising. It’s also unlikely to be repeated, as the righty strikes out fewer than six per nine and seems unlikely to top a 40% ground-ball rate. His walk rate makes him serviceable but unexciting. The fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs. Brandon McCarthy is a safe choice but gives up a bunch of long flies. After dominating in Japan, Colby Lewis is a contender for the fifth spot. Finally, Neftali Feliz will try to harness his electric stuff in the service of a starting role.

The Bullpen: Frank Francisco is the closer in Texas. The big righty has posted a 3.41 K/BB ratio over the last two seasons. His only nemesis is injury. If and when such a thing were to happen, C.J. Wilson has closed out games before. His 2009 was particularly impressive: 10.26 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, 55.4% GB. Former closer Chris Ray came to Texas in the trade that sent Kevin Millwood to Baltimore.

The Starting Lineup: Word on the streets (and in the newspapers) is that Julio Borbon will be leading off and playing center for Texas. He’s a very promising fantasy player, combining a .300 batting average with 30 or 40 stolen bases. Some players are more productive in fantasy than in real baseball. Michael Young is one of them. He’s not bad at all. It’s just, he’s reliant on his average for production. Josh Hamilton will look to stay injury-free and build on his success in 2008. His new position is left field. How much does Vlad Guerrero have left? Enough, probably, but he’s also not much better than, say, Luke Scott at this point. Ian Kinsler hit 13 more homers in 2009 than in 2008 to become the only member of the 30-30 club in 2009. Only problem is, his increased fly-ball rate created a pretty serious dip in his BABIP. It’ll be interesting to see if he sticks with that approach in 2010.

Right fielder Nelson Cruz entered 2009 still attempting to evade the Quad-A label. He left 2009 as roughly a four-win player, displaying an above-average bat and glove. His 20/24 stolen base rate was pretty good, too. No, he didn’t bat .300 as Bill James’s projections suggested he might – in fact, he didn’t even bat over .240 – still, Chris Davis is only 24 and possesses awesome power. CHONE likes him to rebound (.268/.321/.487), while ZiPS is more bear-ish (.251/.300/.475). It’s a rule in baseball that a team needs to field a catcher. Neither Taylor Teagarden nor Jarrod Saltalamacchia distinguished himself in that role last season. Finally, Elvis Andrus probably won’t post league-average offensive numbers anytime soon, but he was worth about a win in the field in 2010. Also, he’s a good candidate to steal 30+ bases again.

The Bench: For the first time in his career, Khalil Greene could play in something resembling a hitter’s park. Between the baleful effects of PETCO and then the baleful effects of the anxiety disorder he suffered through last season, it’s hard to say exactly what Greene is now. It’ll be interesting to see. Outfielder David Murphy is an above-average hitter and, as a corner outfielder, defender. Max Ramirez almost went to Boston for Mike Lowell in the offseason. Whether he’s still a catcher remains to be seen.