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Fantasy Story Lines

Each team in baseball opens the year with half a dozen or more storylines that will determine how its season will play out. But some go beyond Player X staying injury-free or Player Y reaching the next tier. So, here are some of the big-picture items to look at as the 2011 season unfolds.

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Big Questions Will Be Answered in 2010

Each team in baseball opens the year with half a dozen or more storylines that will determine how its season will play out. But some go beyond Player X staying injury-free or Player Y taking the great-leap-forward. So, here are some of the big-picture items to look at as the 2010 season unfolds.

How Will Target Field Play?

It is always exciting when a new ballpark opens. Frequently, we get a massive upgrade in facilities with the opening of a new park and that will certainly be true in Minnesota, as the Twins move from a dome to an open-air facility. For the past 28 seasons, the Twins have played indoors, sharing their park with the Vikings while playing in a stadium more suited for football.

As we saw last year with the two new parks in New York, one can never be certain of exactly how a new ballpark will play. How many people expected the Yankees’ new place to be the best home-run park in baseball? How many spectators predicted that Citi Field would spook David Wright and help cut his home-run output to one-third of what it had been previously?

Last year, Mall of America Field reversed a three-year trend of cutting both home runs and runs by playing as a hitters’ park. The Twins and their opponents combined to score 830 runs and hit 189 homers in Minnesota in 82 games, while in 81 road games the numbers were 752 and 168, respectively. The top five home-run hitters for the Twins – Michael Cuddyer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, Joe Crede, and Delmon Young – combined to hit 145 homers. Eighty of those home runs came in their home park.

The dimensions are nearly identical between Target Field and Mall of America Field in right field and right center. The new park will be a few feet shorter from center over to left field. The wall in left will be eight feet high, a foot higher than in the old park. While the 23-foot high wall in the old park was located merely in right field, the new park will have a wall that high from right center to the right field foul pole. Officials expect the park to play “neutral,” but it remains to be seen how the Twins will do outside in their new surroundings.

Will the Red Sox Have a 30-Home-Run Hitter?

For years the Red Sox offense was defined by the 1-2 punch of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. From 2003 to 2007, the duo averaged more than 77 homers per season. Last year, Jason Bay hit 36 bombs for Boston. But with Bay gone and Ortiz no longer a guarantee to hit 30 long flies, who will provide the big bat in the middle of the order for the Red Sox? Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Mike Cameron, and Victor Martinez are all capable of putting up a 30-homer season but none of them are predicted to reach 30 bombs by the Bill James Projections. The Red Sox won two World Series in the last decade and consider themselves contenders for another title. But no team has won a World Series this century without at least one player recording 30 or more home runs.

Will the Mets Fare Better in Year Two at Citi Field?

Shea Stadium was known as a pitcher’s park. But in its final season, the Mets hit 95 homers in Shea Stadium. Last year, in the first season at Citi Field, the Mets club managed just 49 bombs in its home park. Now, the Mets’ home run problems were not limited to Citi Field, as the club managed only 46 homers in road parks. But the perception of Citi as an extreme pitcher’s park in part influenced the team’s decision to make Jason Bay its primary offseason acquisition, even though a younger, better all-around player in Matt Holliday was also a free agent at the same position. Holliday had a 5.7 WAR last year compared to a 3.5 mark for Bay.

The Mets cited Bay’s home-run power and his pull tendencies as reasons for preferring him over Holliday. Will Bay be able to approximate either the 36 homers he hit overall last year or the .936 home OPS he posted in 2009? If he does, will the Mets continue to base offseason decisions on players they believe will “fit” their home park? And if Bay flops and none of the other players step up with a big home-run season, will the club alter the dimensions of its new park?

Will the Jorge de la Rosa-Ubaldo Jimenez Combination Become the Best in Baseball?

When the Mariners acquired Cliff Lee, many offered Lee and Felix Hernandez as the top pitching tandem in baseball. Others countered with Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, or Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, or C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. But hardly anyone mentioned the Rockies’ duo of Jorge de la Rosa and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Last year, de la Rosa and Jimenez combined for 31 wins and 391 strikeouts, totals that stack up with any of the other tandems mentioned above. After the All-Star break, the two combined for a 19-5 record with a 3.26 ERA and had 191 Ks in 190.2 innings pitched. The duo helped lead the Rockies to the playoffs as Colorado won 45 games in the second half to claim the Wild Card.

Why are de la Rosa and Jimenez not considered as an elite tandem? Neither Rockies pitcher was considered top-shelf material while in the minors. Jimenez ranked 84th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect list in 2007, while de la Rosa never made any of the publication’s lists. Neither pitcher had much success until last year and, even then, de la Rosa’s ERA was 4.38 for the season. And many will contend that pitching in the heartland hurts when it comes to publicity.

But if de la Rosa and Jimenez can match their second half numbers for an entire season in 2010, no one will doubt them. And the Rockies club, which finished three games behind the Dodgers for the NL West title last year, will become the class of the division.

Will the Braves Have One Last Hurrah for Bobby Cox?

As a ballplayer, Bobby Cox was nothing special. In two seasons in the Majors he put up a .225/.310/.309 line. But as a manager, Cox will likely make the Hall of Fame. A four-time winner of the Manager of the Year award, Cox guided his team to 14 first-place finishes in 15 years. He was the skipper for five NL Pennants and one World Series championship. Overall, Cox ranks fourth among managers with 2,413 wins in 28 years.

The Braves have missed the playoffs the past four years, but last season’s 86 wins was their highest total since 2005. The club enters the season with a top-notch rotation and a revamped bullpen. Offensively, the Braves hope that Chipper Jones can shake off his late-season slump and that Troy Glaus can stay healthy for the majority of the year.

If Atlanta finds itself in the middle of the pennant race, will it make moves to acquire a veteran bat to give Cox one last shot at a World Series? For years, the Braves were known as an organization that made shrewd trades. But the big push for Mark Teixeira in 2007 really hurt the farm system and did not pay off in a playoff berth. If the Braves club finds itself in the hunt, will management be gun shy with the memory of the Teixeira deal or will it go all-in to send Cox out on a high note?

Who Will Dave Duncan Work Miracles on Next?

In 2009, Joel Pineiro was the latest pitcher that St. Louis Cardinals coach Dave Duncan transformed into a surprise winner. From 2004 to 2008, Pineiro was 35-47 with a 5.34 ERA. Last year, with the addition of a two-seam fastball, Pineiro won 15 games and posted a 3.49 ERA. He joined a long line of Duncan-aided success stories, including Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Brett Tomko, and Darryl Kile, among many others. Which St. Louis pitcher will come out of nowhere to post a big season in 2010?

How Will the McCourt Divorce Affect the Dodgers?

The local media likes to give Dodgers owner Frank McCourt a hard time about making his fortune with parking lots. But under McCourt, the Dodgers advanced to the NLCS in back-to-back years for the first time since 1977-1978. The Dodgers organization had not even won a playoff game since 1988 when McCourt took control prior to the 2004 season. Since then the club has made the playoffs in four of six seasons and has maintained one of the top payrolls in the game.

But since the end of last season, when strains in the marriage between Frank and Jamie McCourt became public, it has been a different story. The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to any of their free agents, clearly afraid that someone would accept and win a big pay day while the team’s ownership status was in flux during the divorce proceedings.

While losing Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, Orlando Hudson, Mark Loretta, Jim Thome, and Will Ohman from last year’s club, the only moves the Dodgers have made so far has been to sign veteran utility man Jamey Carroll and deal Juan Pierre in a cost-cutting move. Right-hander Vicente Padilla was recently re-signed after coming over to the club in a mid-season trade in ’09.

Will the Dodgers make any moves to add more depth to its pitching before the start of the year? And if the team is in contention, will it be able to pull off a trade to add payroll? On the flip side, if the Dodgers fall behind early, will the club look to move Manny Ramirez or any other veteran making more than minimum wage? Will the unsettled ownership situation lead to a quicker decision on in/out of the playoff chase than normal?

Will the Yankees Be Able to Repeat Their Prolific Offensive Season?

Last year, eight of the nine regulars for the Yankees posted an OPS+ of 125 or more, as the team scored 915 runs – the most in the Majors. Only center fielder Melky Cabrera failed to reach that level, and he was hardly a slouch with a 99 OPS+. However, the Yankees organization replaced him with Curtis Granderson, who put up a 123 OPS+ in 2008 and 135 in 2007.

The Yankees lost DH Hideki Matsui, but have already replaced him with Nick Johnson, who posted an OPS+ of 122 last year and 124 in 2008. Johnny Damon also may not return, but the Yankees are likely to replace him with a bat, too.

New York enjoyed great health in 2009. Only Jorge Posada failed to get 500 plate appearances among expected starters and even he played in 111 games. Also, the Yankees enjoyed great rebound seasons last year from Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Nick Swisher. Those three posted OPS+ numbers of 86, 102 and 92, respectively, in 2008. Can everything fall in place in back-to-back seasons offensively for the Bronx Bombers?

Can the Mariners Offense Catch Up to Its Pitching and Defense?

After five years of middle-of-the-road offensive performance, where he posted wOBAs ranging from .344 to .359, Raul Ibanez left the Mariners as a free agent prior to the 2009 season. The main outfielder imported was Franklin Gutierrez, who posted a .337 wOBA. Yet, Gutierrez was widely hailed as one of the reasons Seattle improved from 61 to 85 wins. Gutierrez took over center-field duties and posted a 27.1 UZR/150. Ibanez had posted back-to-back double-digit negative UZR/150 seasons his final two years in Seattle.

The Mariners led the American League with a .710 Defensive Efficiency Rating last year. In 2008, the club ranked 13th with a .679 mark. The outfield of Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki and a revolving door in left field, which included Wladimir Balentien, Endy Chavez, and Ryan Langerhans (who each posted double-digit UZR/150 marks in left), was one of the best fielding groups of recent memory. Among players who played at least 50 games, only shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt had a negative UZR/150. He was replaced with Jack Wilson, who notched a 14.3 UZR/150 in 31 games.

The improved defense undoubtedly helped the pitching, which led the AL with a 3.87 ERA. So the 2009 Mariners club was first in pitching, first in defense, but last in runs scored with 640 – 275 runs behind the AL-leading Yankees. The Mariners imported Chone Figgins to help the offense but must find a replacement for free agent first baseman Russell Branyan, who had a team-leading 31 homers and 76 RBI. Can a team with only two players likely to exceed a .350 wOBA – Ichiro and Figgins – make the playoffs?

Did the Phillies Make the Right Choice in Trading Cliff Lee?

The Phillies acquired Cliff Lee at the trading deadline last year and he proceeded to win seven games down the stretch and was the club’s best pitcher in the postseason. Lee went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in five playoff games last year and his two victories in the World Series were the only games won by the Phillies. But Lee was a free agent following the 2010 season and Philadelphia opted to trade him and acquire Roy Halladay in a multi-team, multi-player deal. The deal was contingent on signing Halladay to an extension, which the Phillies were able to do.

Meanwhile, after the trade, Lee expressed surprise that the Phillies dealt him, as he thought the two sides were closing in on a new contract. Philadelphia made the decision to spend the money on Halladay rather than Lee, but should they have kept both players for the 2010 season? With the Phillies’ offense, having Halladay and Lee at the top of their rotation would have been an imposing threat for other teams in the National League.

Now the Phillies are hoping that Cole Hamels can bounce back and be the club’s second starter behind Halladay. After out-performing his FIP in both 2007 and 2008, Hamels experienced some bad luck in 2009. His FIP shows him as essentially the same pitcher from 2006 to 2009, but the results were markedly worse last year than 2008. If Hamels posts an ERA that matches his career FIP of 3.79, will the Phillies be happy with that production from the second starter?

Philadelphia restocked its farm system by trading Lee. But is the haul of Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez better than a season of Lee and two draft picks? Conventional wisdom says that the Phillies made it to back-to-back World Series with just half a season of Lee. The Major League team is better off with a full season of Halladay and the minor league system is better with the prospects. But anything less than a World Series victory will leave fans wondering how things would have been with Lee still on the team.


Splitting Hairs on 2009’s Performances

Everyone has players that they think are strong performers in either the first or second half. Hank Blalock is a notorious first-half performer while Adam LaRoche has made a career out of heating up after the All-Star break. In 2009, Blalock had a .854 OPS in the first half compared to a .585 OPS in the second. LaRoche posted a .784 OPS before the All-Star break and .915 mark afterwards.

But neither of those players made the list of top-five extreme fantasy splits for 2009.

To figure out who the hot and cold fantasy performers were by half, I took the dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater at the All-Star break and compared them to the numbers that the players posted for the entire season. Hitters needed to have 150 at-bats in each half in order to qualify, while pitchers needed 50 innings (or be a closer) on both sides of the break to merit inclusion.

Here are the extreme first half hitters:

1. Jermaine Dye – First half: $20.73; Final: $6:36; Difference: $14:37

1st Half – .302-20-55-55-0

2nd Half – .179-7-26-23-0

2. Justin Morneau – First half: $26.68; Final: $13.87; Difference: $12.81

1st Half – .311-21-70-59-0

2nd Half – .201-9-30-26-0

3. Brandon Inge – First half: $14.80; Final: $2.58; Difference: $12.22

1st Half – .261-28-58-51-2

2nd Half – .186-6-26-20-0

4. Luke Scott – First half: $16.31; Final: $4.69; Difference: $11.62

1st Half – .305-18-51-39-0

2nd Half – .208-7-26-22-0

5. Brad Hawpe – First half: $21.02; Final: $11.40; Difference: $9.62

1st Half – .320-14-59-50-0

2nd Half – .240-9-27-32-1

Here are the extreme second half hitters:

1. Troy Tulowitzki – First half: $10.78; Final: $26.84; Difference: $16.06

1st Half – .254-16-37-49-11

2nd Half – .342-16-55-52-9

2. Ryan Howard – First half: $15.02; Final: $30.33; Difference: $15.31

1st Half – .257-22-67-53-4

2nd Half – .304-23-74-52-4

3. Chris Coghlan – First half: -$5.35; Final: $9.89; Difference: $15.24

1st Half – .245-2-15-30-4

2nd Half – .372-7-32-54-4

4. Matt Holliday – First half: $10.32; Final: $25.52; Difference: $15.20

1st Half – .276-8-43-42-10

2nd Half – .356-16-66-52-4

5. Jimmy Rollins – First half: $1.14; Final: $16.31; Difference: $15.17

1st Half – .229-7-34-51-16

2nd Half – .272-14-43-49-15

Here are the extreme first half pitchers:

1. Edwin Jackson – First half: $18.77; Final: $8.90; Difference: $9.87

1st Half – 7 W, 2.52 ERA, 97 Ks, 1.060 WHIP

2nd Half – 6 W, 5.07 ERA, 64 Ks, 1.527 WHIP

2. Jarrod Washburn – First half: $11.19; Final: $3.25; Difference: $7.94

1st Half – 6 W, 2.96 ERA, 72 Ks, 1.086 WHIP

2nd Half – 3 W, 5.23 ERA, 28 Ks, 1.366 WHIP

3. Ryan Franklin – First half: $21.51; Final: $14.25; Difference: $7.26

1st Half – 2 W, 21 SV, 0.79 ERA, 27 Ks, 0.794 WHIP

2nd Half – 2 W, 17 SV, 3.33 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.704 WHIP

4. Frank Francisco – First half: $13.12; Final: $6.26; Difference: $6.86

1st Half – 2 W, 15 SV, 2.28 ERA, 32 Ks, 0.940 WHIP

2nd Half – 0 W, 10 SV, 5.82 ERA, 25 Ks, 1.338 WHIP

5. Francisco Rodriguez – First half: $17.41; Final: $11.09; Difference: $6.32

1st Half – 2 W, 23 SV, 1.90 ERA, 42 Ks, 1.242 WHIP

2nd Half – 1 W, 12 SV, 6.75 ERA, 31 Ks, 1.421 WHIP

Here are the extreme second half pitchers:

1. Bronson Arroyo – First half: -$16.02; Final: $7.46; Difference: $23.48

1st Half – 9 W, 5.38 ERA, 59 Ks, 1.482 WHIP

2nd Half – 6 W, 2.24 ERA, 68 Ks, 1.043 WHIP

2. Jorge de la Rosa – First half: -$10.38; Final: $8.48; Difference: $18.86

1st Half – 6 W, 5.21 ERA, 99 Ks, 1.448 WHIP

2nd Half – 10 W, 3.46 ERA, 94 Ks, 1.302 WHIP

3. Cliff Lee – First half: -$4.51; Final: $12.84; Difference: $17.35

1st Half – 4 W, 3.47 ERA, 93 Ks, 1.386 WHIP

2nd Half – 10 W, 2.92 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.070 WHIP

4. Ricky Nolasco – First half: -$11,05; Final: $6.17; Difference: $17.22

1st Half – 6 W, 5.76 ERA, 90 Ks, 1.390 WHIP

2nd Half – 7 W, 4.39 ERA, 105 Ks, 1.124 WHIP

5. Jon Garland – First half: -$16.27; Final: $0.13; Difference: $16.40

1st Half – 5 W, 4.53 ERA, 44 Ks, 1.500 WHIP

2nd Half – 6 W, 3.42 ERA, 65 Ks, 1.289 WHIP

Here were the top five fantasy hitters at the All-Star break:

Albert Pujols – .332-32-87-73-10

Carl Crawford – .309-8-39-58-44

Hanley Ramirez – .349-14-61-53-13

Ichiro Suzuki – .362-6-24-45-19

Chase Utley – .313-20-61-62-9

Here were the top five fantasy pitchers at the All-Star break:

Dan Haren – 9 W, 2.01 ERA, 129 Ks, 0.808 WHIP

Tim Lincecum – 10 W, 2.33 ERA, 149 Ks, 1.050 WHIP

Zack Greinke – 10 W, 2.12 ERA, 129 Ks, 1.076 WHIP

Jonathan Broxton – 6 W, 20 SV, 3.10 ERA, 65 Ks, 0.934 WHIP

Joe Nathan – 1 W, 23 SV, 1.31 ERA, 43 Ks, 0.728 WHIP

Finally, here are some second half lines that stood out and were not mentioned above:

Rajai Davis – .325-1-42-46-30

Paul Janish – .202-1-13-26-2

C.C, Sabathia – 11 W, 2.74 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.141 WHIP

Luke Hochevar – 2 W, 7.35 ERA, 80 Ks, 1.599 WHIP


2010 Los Angeles Angels Preview

Rotation
Jered Weaver, RHP
Scott Kazmir, LHP
Ervin Santana, RHP
Joe Saunders, LHP
Joel Pineiro, RHP

Closers and Setup
Brian Fuentes, LHP
Fernando Rodney, RHP

Starting Lineup
Erick Aybar, SS
Bobby Abreu, RF
Torii Hunter, CF
Hideki Matsui, DH
Kendry Morales, 1B
Juan Rivera, LF
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Mike Napoli, C
Brandon Wood, 3B

Player in Decline

There is no obvious choice here but Abreu, who will be 36 when the season starts, posted a .142 ISO last year, a 34-point drop from 2008 and his lowest since being a part-time player in 1997.

Player on the Rise

The Angels have been expecting big things from Kendrick for years but he has been unable to stay healthy. Last year there were no injury problems and after the All-Star break he posted a .948 OPS with six homers in 165 at-bats.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Kendry Morales: Average
Torii Hunter: Average
Bobby Abreu: Average
Brian Fuentes: Average
Jered Weaver: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Hank Conger, C
2. Jordan Walden, RHP
3. Mike Trout, OF
4. Trevor Reckling, LHP
5. Peter Bourjos, OF
6. Fabio Martinez, RHP
7. Trevor Bell, RHP
8. Mark Trumbo, OF
9. Tyler Chatwood, RHP
10. Chris Pettit, OF

Overall team outlook: The Angels have won the American League West five of the past six seasons. But the loss of key free agents, including leadoff hitter Chone Figgins and No. 1 starter John Lackey, leaves the division up for grabs this year. Each of the other three clubs in the division has made key updates, making the AL West the most competitive division in baseball.

The Starting Rotation: While the Angels lost Lackey, they still have a deep and talented rotation. While there is no true ace, recently acquired Joel Pineiro, along with holdovers Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Jered Weaver have all reached the 15-win plateau in one of the past two seasons. And Scott Kazmir is no one’s idea of a fifth starter, with an ERA under 4.00 in four of the past five years. But there are questions surrounding each of them. Can Pineiro maintain his ground-ball rate, his pinpoint control, and his miniscule home-run rate without the aid of former pitching coach Dave Duncan? Is Santana fully recovered from the various arm injuries that ruined his 2009 season? Will Saunders continue to outpitch his peripherals, which gave him a 5.17 FIP last year? How will Weaver handle the designation as the team’s ace? Can Kazmir avoid the mechanical flaws that led to a drop in velocity and a 5.92 ERA with the Rays last year? But while there are some questions, the Angels also have good depth, with Matt Palmer, Sean O’Sullivan, and Shane Loux, who combined for 29 starts last year, available to fill in as needed.

The Bullpen: For years a team strength, the bullpen was not nearly as solid last year. Brian Fuentes, imported to replace Francisco Rodriguez as closer, racked up 47 saves but was erratic and struggled against right-handed batters to the point where manager Mike Scioscia went to matchups down the stretch in the ninth inning. Fuentes retains his closer job. But if he falters again, the club has newly acquired Fernando Rodney, who had 37 saves last year for the Tigers, as another option. The club hopes a return of Scot Shields, who missed most of 2009 after undergoing knee surgery, helps stabilize the pen. Also returning is veteran Jason Bulger, who excelled last year in his first extended stay in the Majors, featuring a curveball that was 12.8 runs above average.

The Starting Lineup: In addition to Figgins, the Angels also lost starting DH Vladimir Guerrero to free agency. The club will give long-term top prospect Brandon Wood the first shot at the third base job and imported veteran Hideki Matsui to replace Guerrero. The other seven hitters return from last year’s squad, which finished second in the AL with 883 runs scored. The big question is will the Angels be able to recoup the lost production at the top of the order? Last year, Figgins finished second in the league with 114 runs, thanks in large part to his .395 OBP. Shortstop Erick Aybar should get the first crack at the leadoff spot, but last year he had a career-best .353 OBP.

The Angels brought back Bobby Abreu, who was credited by many for the team’s more patient approach at the plate last year. Abreu posted a .390 OBP but did not lead off once last year and has done it just 30 times in his 14-year career. The Angels hope Kendry Morales can build upon last year’s breakout season, which featured a .382 wOBA. The club also needs repeat seasons from Torii Hunter, whose .379 wOBA last year was a career-best, and Juan Rivera, who established a personal high with 25 homers. Wood could be another source of power, if he makes enough contact (MLB K%: 33%) to keep the job. Second baseman Howie Kendrick may have to battle Maicer Izturis for playing time, but he finally started producing last year. After his recall from the minors, Kendrick batted .351/.387/.532 over his final 199 plate appearances.

The Bench: The Angels feature a quasi-platoon behind the plate, with Mike Napoli and his 122 wRC+ forming the offensive half and Jeff Mathis as more of a defensive-minded backstop. Napoli is a potent bat off the bench on days when he is not in the lineup, although he could see time at both DH and first base this year. The club re-signed Izturis to a three-year deal, giving them a quality reserve player who can play any of the infield positions. With the trade of Gary Matthews, Reggie Willits becomes the top outfield reserve.


2010 Chicago White Sox Preview

Rotation
Jake Peavy, RHP
Mark Buehrle, LHP
Gavin Floyd, RHP
John Danks, LHP
Freddy Garcia, RHP

Closers and Setup
Bobby Jenks, RHP
J.J. Putz, RHP

Starting Lineup
Juan Pierre, LF
Gordon Beckham, 2B
Mark Teahen, 3B
Paul Konerko, 1B
Carlos Quentin, RF
Alex Rios, CF
A.J. Pierzynski, C
Alexei Ramirez, SS
Andruw Jones, DH

Player in Decline

Paul Konerko played in 30 more games in 2009 than the previous year, which made his counting stats go up. But his BB/K, LD% and HR/FB rates all declined. The guy who averaged a .291-39-110 line from 2004-06 is but a distant memory.

Player on the Rise

Gordon Beckham came up and held his own as a 22 year old last season. Six of his 14 homers came in the final month of the year and a 25-homer season is within reach if he can take advantage of his home park. Beckham hit just four homers in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular last year.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Jake Peavy: Average
Gordon Beckham: Average
Carlos Quentin: Average
Alexei Ramirez: Average
Bobby Jenks: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Tyler Flowers, C
2. Daniel Hudson, RHP
3. Jordan Danks, OF
4. Jared Mitchell, OF
5. Brent Morel, 3B
6. Dayan Viciedo, 3B
7. C.J. Retherford, 2B/3B
8. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP
9. Trayce Thompson, OF
10. David Holmberg, LHP

Overall team outlook: The White Sox finished 12th in the American League in runs scored last season and will feature an overhauled offense in 2010. The club said goodbye to Jim Thome late last year and let Jermaine Dye go after the season. Chicago hopes its new imports can lead to a more versatile and balanced attack to support a pitching staff that should be one of the best in the American League.

The Starting Rotation: Jake Peavy won all three starts he made for the White Sox down the stretch and takes over as the staff ace. He battled injuries to his ankle and elbow last year but, when healthy, the former Padre is one of the top starters in the game. Mark Buehrle has always given the club innings and, for the past three seasons, he has also given consistency, as he has averaged a 3.75 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Gavin Floyd had better peripherals in 2009 but worse results. His FIP was a full run lower than in 2008 but he dropped from 17 to 11 wins. In his final 21 starts of the year, John Danks had a 3.21 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Freddy Garcia and rookie Daniel Hudson will battle for the fifth starter’s job. Garcia’s velocity is heading towards Buehrle territory but his slider is once again an outpitch. Hudson jumped from Class-A to the Majors last year and showed a good fastball (93.4 mph) in his limited action. He has a 10.6 K/9 in two years in the minors.

The Bullpen: Despite rumors to the contrary, the White Sox kept Bobby Jenks as their closer, inking him to a new deal and avoiding an arbitration hearing. Last year, Jenks saw a rebound of his K rate. Unfortunately, he also saw his HR/FB rate more than triple. But the real reason for his struggles was a tough July, when he allowed seven earned runs in 7.1 innings pitched, all without a homer allowed. In early August, Jenks passed a kidney stone. He finished the season with a 2.50 ERA in his final 17 games, despite allowing three homers in that stretch. Chicago inked J.J. Putz to be a set-up man/back-up closer while Matt Thornton, Tony Pena and Scott Linebrink add quality depth.

The Starting Lineup: The White Sox brought in Juan Pierre to be the leadoff hitter and he replaces Scott Podsednik. Pierre was productive when he led off for the Dodgers, but it remains to be seen if he can thrive in the lineup where Podsednik had just 75 runs in 132 games. Chicago hopes to recoup some lost power with full seasons from Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin. Despite playing in one of the best home-run parks in baseball, the White Sox were league average in homers last year and may struggle just to reach that mark in 2010. They will need better production from Alexei Ramirez, newcomer Mark Teahen, and late-season addition Alex Rios, who flopped in his brief time in Chicago last year.

A.J. Pierzynski is in the final year of his contract, likely his last with the White Sox, as top prospect Tyler Flowers is all but ready to take over. Perhaps the biggest change in the team is at designated hitter. After several years of having Thome man the position, manager Ozzie Guillen plans to use the spot among several people, with newcomer Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay expected to get the bulk of the time. Guillen also hopes to use the spot to give regulars a partial day off. Thome led the club with a wRC+ of 127 last year, a number the club will struggle to replace.

The Bench: The White Sox will have a veteran bench, with 42-year-old Omar Vizquel joining holdovers Kotsay (34) and Ramon Castro (34) and newcomer Jones (33). Jayson Nix (26) brings some youth, along with the ability to play both the infield and outfield. Because of the versatility of Kotsay, who can play first base and the outfield, and Nix, the White Sox have flexibility in their final bench spot which could be filled with Brent Lillibridge, Alejandro De Aza, or potentially even Flowers as a C/DH.


2010 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

Rotation
Chad Billingsley, RHP
Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Hiroki Kuroda, LHP
Vicente Padilla, RHP
James McDonald, RHP

Closers and Setup
Jonathan Broxton, RHP
George Sherrill, LHP

Starting Lineup
Rafael Furcal, SS
Matt Kemp, CF
Andre Ethier, RF
Manny Ramirez, LF
James Loney, 1B
Casey Blake, 3B
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Rafael Furcal was a down-ballot MVP choice in 2006 when he had a 119 wRC+. But he’s had two years below 95 since then surrounding an injury-shortened 2008. Now 32, he may never sniff 15 homers or 37 steals again.

Player on the Rise

Clayton Kershaw broke out in every way except wins last year, as he posted an 8-8 mark. With better run support he could double his wins total this year.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Matt Kemp – Elite
Jonathan Broxton – Elite
Manny Ramirez – Elite
Andre Ethier – Average
Clayton Kershaw – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Devaris Gordon, SS
2. Ethan Martin, RHP
3. Andrew Lambo, OF
4. Josh Lindblom, RHP
5. Chris Withrow, RHP
6. Scott Elbert, LHP
7. Aaron Miller, LHP
8. John Ely, RHP
9. Trayvon Robinson, OF
10. Allen Webster, RHP

Overall team outlook: The Dodgers organization has made it to the NLCS in back-to-back years and features a team of exciting youngsters, bolstered by productive veterans. But there is a cloud over the team due to the bitter divorce of owner(s) Frank and Jamie McCourt, which leaves the immediate future of the club uncertain. The organization did not offer arbitration to any of its free agents and has not made any impact additions to the team in the offseason.

The Starting Rotation: Despite losing two pitchers to free agency, the Dodgers still have a nice rotation. Youngsters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw lead the staff. Billingsley won nine of his first 12 decisions before running into trouble with the gopher ball, as he allowed 14 homers in his final 103.2 innings. Kershaw had a 2.27 ERA in the second half of the season yet managed just one win after the All-Star break. It was a tough year for Hiroki Kuroda, who suffered from an oblique strain early in the year and then got hit in the head by a line drive in mid-August. But when he was able to pitch, batters still had trouble with his fastball-slider-splitter repertoire, which led to an excellent 32.8 O-Swing%. That would have been the best in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

One move the Dodgers did make this season was to re-sign late-season pick-up Vicente Padilla, who pitched very well for them until Game Five of the NLCS. In eight games during the regular season for Los Angeles, Padilla had a 3.17 K/BB ratio. The fifth starter’s job is up in the air. James McDonald flopped in his four starts last year but was very effective in the bullpen. The Dodgers like his arm, and he should get another chance to make it as a starter. If McDonald falters, Eric Stults could get some starts like he did last year, and the Dodgers have a trio of former high draft picks in the upper minors who could get a shot.

The Bullpen: After three years as one of the top set-up men in the game, Jonathan Broxton excelled in his first year as the full-time closer. He averaged 97.7 mph with his fastball and complemented that with a wicked slider, a combination which led to a 13.50 K/9 and 36 saves. The Dodgers added Orioles closer George Sherrill down the stretch last year, giving them a strong eighth-inning option. Sherrill was fantastic for the Dodgers, as he allowed just two earned runs in 27.2 innings.

The Starting Lineup: The Dodgers club will feature the same lineup it did during the playoffs last year. Rafael Furcal leads off and he is followed by slugging outfielders Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez. Kemp won both the Gold Glove award and the Silver Slugger last year and should challenge for a 30-30 year. Ethier set a career high with a .237 ISO last season. Ramirez had a tough year, with first the suspension and later a hand injury, but he still posted a 148 wRC+ to lead the team. James Loney has not developed the home-run power the club hoped for, but he has back-to-back 90-RBI seasons. Casey Blake had a .320/.442/.563 line against LHPs last year and is a consistent .275 hitter with 20-homer power.

Ronnie Belliard took over for Orlando Hudson at second base down the stretch and the Dodgers chose to bring him back instead of Hudson, who had just a .707 OPS in his final 114 games. Belliard hit for both average (.351) and power (.636 SLG) in his brief time with the Dodgers last year. Belliard has a weight clause in his contract where if he reports to spring training at more than 209 pounds, the club can release him. In that case, Blake DeWitt would become the starter. Russell Martin struggled at the plate last year and hopes to improve upon last season’s .285 BABIP and 5.4 HR/FB rate.

The Bench: The Dodgers brought in Jamey Carroll to complement DeWitt for infield depth, although DeWitt may start the year in the minors if he does not grab a starting job. Doug Mientkiewicz signed a minor league deal and will likely be the back-up first baseman. Brad Ausmus returns as the second catcher. With the trade of Juan Pierre, Jason Repko becomes the primary outfield reserve. The bench is not a strong point of the club.


2010 New York Mets Preview

Rotation
Johan Santana, LHP
John Maine, RHP
Oliver Perez, LHP
Mike Pelfrey, RPH
Jon Niese, LHP

Closers and Setup
Francisco Rodriguez, RHP
Pedro Feliciano, LHP

Starting Lineup
Jose Reyes, SS
Luis Castillo, 2B
David Wright, 3B
Jason Bay, LF
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Beltran/Matthews, CF
Daniel Murphy, 1B
Omir Santos, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

People have been talking about the declining peripherals of Francisco Rodriguez for several years and it all came home to roost last season. His 1.92 K/BB was the lowest of his career.

Player on the Rise

In his final 266 plate appearances on the year, Daniel Murphy had a .294/.321/.504 line. In the final month of the season, he had a .580 slugging percentage.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
David Wright: Elite
Jose Reyes: Elite
Jason Bay: Elite
Johan Santana: Elite
Francisco Rodriguez: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Fernando Martinez, OF
2. Ike Davis, 1B
3. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
4. Wilmer Flores, SS
5. Jon Niese, LHP
6. Brad Holt, RHP
7. Ruben Tejada, SS
8. Josh Thole, C
9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
10. Jeurys Familia, RHP

Overall team outlook: A staggering number of injuries transformed the Mets from a playoff contender to an also-ran last year. The uncertainty surrounding nearly every key player in 2009, whether due to injury or ineffectiveness, makes the Mets the hardest team to predict in all of baseball. The organization has the talent to win 90 games yet enough question marks to make another 70-win season a potential outcome.

The Starting Rotation: For the Mets to have any chance at all, Johan Santana has to return from elbow surgery to be the elite pitcher he was for them at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In a 27-game stretch over the two years, Santana was 16-2 with a 1.98 ERA. They need a dominant Santana because there is so much uncertainty with the rest of the staff. There is no clear-cut order among John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, and Oliver Perez. Maine and Perez each have 15-win seasons under their belt, but both are coming off injury-plagued seasons.

Maine has thrown just 221.1 innings the past two seasons combined and needs to be healthy enough to throw his slider on a consistent basis to be an effective pitcher. Perez has outstanding stuff but is plagued by wildness. The two seasons when his BB/9 was beneath 4.50, Perez combined for a 3.26 ERA. Overall he has a 4.54 career ERA. He is also coming off knee surgery. Pelfrey was the lone starter to remain healthy in 2009, but he posted a 5.03 ERA. Barring a last-minute trade, the Mets will have Fernando Nieve and Jon Niese battle for the fifth starter’s job. Both players had their seasons end with injuries last year. Nieve had an impressive 2.95 ERA last year but that came with a 5.41 xFIP.

The Bullpen: After bullpen meltdowns cost the Mets a playoff berth in 2008, they imported Francisco Rodriguez last season. He had a fine first half but suffered a post All-Star break meltdown. Rodriguez had a 5.52 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in the second half last year. With his high walk rate, Rodriguez has little room for error and last year everything came crashing down. Rodriguez has made a career out of stranding base runners, with a lifetime 80.4% strand rate. His LOB% was 69.8% last year. Only a .270 BABIP kept things from being even worse. The Mets club needs the first half Rodriguez if it plans to contend in 2010.

The Starting Lineup: The Mets organization hopes the return of Jose Reyes will reinvigorate the lineup. After suffering through various leg injuries last year, Reyes had surgery on a torn right hamstring tendon in October. It remains to be seen if Reyes can once again be the player that averaged 64.5 steals from 2005 to 2008. Luis Castillo had a bounceback season in 2009. His 107 wRC+ was his highest since 2005. David Wright is working with hitting coach Howard Johnson to rediscover his home-run swing. Wright hit just 10 home runs last year after averaging nearly 29 homers the previous four years.

Jason Bay was targeted as a free agent because the Mets thought his pull tendencies would allow him to hit homers in Citi Field. Bay has hit more than 30 homers in four of the past five seasons. A .343 BABIP helped Jeff Francoeur to a .350 wOBA last year with the Mets, and the club hopes that is the real Francoeur, instead of the one that had a .286 wOBA in 2008 and a .278 in 2009 with Atlanta. Carlos Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season after undergoing knee surgery in mid-January. Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. will fill in during his absence. Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis will form a platoon at first base. Murphy led the team with 12 homers last year while Tatis had an .822 OPS versus LHPs. After spending most of the season in a pointless chase for free agent Bengie Molina, the Mets have an unsettled catching situation. Josh Thole is likely to start in the minors to work on his defense while Omir Santos and Henry Blanco battle to see if either can post a .700 OPS.

The Bench: Matthews replaces Jeremy Reed as a reserve outfielder, and brings a 92-point increase in OPS. Alex Cora returns as the primary middle infield back-up. Blanco was brought in mainly for his defense. Pagan was a pleasant surprise last year in his most extended playing time in the Majors. He opens the year in center for Beltran and may see time in right if Francoeur struggles. Tatis is a solid backup at the corner infield and outfield positions and can even play second base in an emergency.