When you think about a particular year’s free-agent crop, you think of the big tickets.

You remember how well Zack Greinke pitched for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year, while shaking your head at how poorly Josh Hamilton performed for the Los Angeles Angels.

At some point in the future, we’ll look back at this winter and judge how well the expected massive contracts for Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo worked out — or, quite possibly, didn’t. But focusing on the ever-increasing prices at the top of the market tends to overlook where the true value is found.

For teams that know where to look, there’s a class of free agents primed to provide production at a fraction of the cost. We saw this last year with guys like Russell Martin,James Loney and Scott Kazmir. Each was coming off a subpar season but had a history of success, and each contributed substantially this year to a playoff team.

Can we find players who fit a similar profile on this year’s market? The Cleveland Indiansmay have already, reportedly signing useful outfielder David Murphy to a reasonably priced two-year deal Tuesday night, hoping they’ll get something more like his excellent 2012 than his down 2013.

Murphy isn’t alone, however — there are others like him.

Dan Haren, RHP

For years, Haren has been one of baseball’s top pitchers with the Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Angels. He received big money on a one-year deal to fill out the Nationals’ rotation in 2013. But it didn’t work, mostly; after 15 starts, Haren had a 6.15 ERA and had allowed opposing batters an ugly line of .306 AVG/.340 OBP/.548 SLG.

After his 15th start, he ended up on the disabled list with what was officially termed “shoulder soreness” but what was widely believed to be more of a simple breather to get him some time off the mound.

When he returned, he was a new man. In his final 16 games (15 starts), his ERA was 3.29, his line against was a solid .228/.271/.355, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was an excellent 84/18. Just as importantly, he allowed only nine homers in his second half, as opposed to 19 before that.

Haren isn’t the ace he once was, not with 11 years in the bigs on his arm and downward-trending velocity. But he showed in the second half that his excellent control and a commitment to keeping the ball down can still allow him to be a productive pitcher, and his poor first half ensures he won’t get anything like $12 million again, making him a nice buy-low candidate.

Chris Young, CF

Young appears on this list for all the same reasons Murphy would have — they’re both eight-year veterans from the Houston area who suffered through arguably the worst years of otherwise productive careers in 2013.

Young might be an even better bet to buy low on, because he’s two years younger and was more productive at his peak than Murphy, providing Arizona with about 11 WAR from 2010 to ’12. Traded to Oakland last year, Young fell apart, hitting only .200/.280/.379, and the A’s predictably declined his $11 million option. Still, he’s only 30 and has three 20/20 seasons under his belt.

Young never did become the star that his 32-homer debut (at 22 years old in 2007) suggested he might be, but searching in the value bin isn’t about finding stars, it’s about identifying players who may be able to fit a role. If Young isn’t exactly the plus-plus center fielder he used to be, he’s still an above-average defender in a corner, and with a career .364 wOBA against lefties (only .310 against righties), he is an intriguing platoon option who can handle all three spots.

Even at his best, Young never had a high batting average — he has topped .250 just once — so he’d be best-served to land with a team that wisely doesn’t put much stock in that number. He’d do even better to end up somewhere that doesn’t have a lot of foul ground; of the 226 players with at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of 2011, only five have popped up more than Young.

Ike Davis, 1B | New York Mets

Davis doesn’t fit the mold perfectly, because he’s not a free agent, but the Mets have made it clear he’s available, and he has the biggest boom/bust potential of anyone around. In just four years in the bigs, Davis has had a dizzying array of ups and downs, from a .302/.383/.543 line in a shortened 2011 season and 32 homers in 2012, to bouts with a severe ankle injury, Valley fever and finally a Triple-A demotion in 2013.

It’s not surprising that the Mets sent him down in June, because he was hitting just .161/.242/ .258, the second consecutive year he’d been beyond awful for the first half. In 2012, he turned it around and was fantastic down the stretch; in 2013, he again showed improvement after being recalled, hitting .267/.429/.443 in July and August until an oblique strain shut him down in September.

While he’s often infuriating to watch, he will be only 27 years old next year, and he has been an above-average hitter overall in a world where power keeps getting harder to find. He’s perhaps the biggest “change of scenery needed” player on the market, with Mets fans seemingly finished with him. A team that would keep him away from lefty pitching (career .269 wOBA) and let him hit righties (.357 wOBA) may enjoy their purchase.

The 2014 Steamer projections, it should be noted, are optimistic, projecting a .238/.341/.439 line with 18 homers in part-time play.

Corey Hart, 1B/OF

Hart missed all of 2013 with knee injuries, and that makes him an enormous risk as he heads into his age-32 season. Yet Hart will get an opportunity for the same reason that Davis will, and that’s because offense continues to trend down — 2013’s MLB wOBA of .314 is the lowest the sport has seen since 1989.

Hart has proclaimed himself healthy, and he hit .279/.343/.514 with 87 homers from 2010 to ’12. If not for the missed year, that’s the kind of performance that would have earned him a sizable multiyear contract in this market. The health concerns mean he’ll likely get only a single-year, make-good offer — and we saw how well that worked out for the Red Sox andMike Napoli last winter.

It’s still early enough in the offseason that Marlon Byrd landing a two-year deal with thePhiladelphia Phillies is the biggest player movement we’ve seen so far, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any clear winners yet. There are two, and they’re the same two teams that always seem to fall into that category: the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

What could they possibly have won already, when no games are being played and they have not added any new players (yet)? They’ve won the ability to potentially pick up three additional draft picks apiece, more than any other teams in baseball, because of the “qualifying offer” system that went into place last year in the new collective bargaining agreement.

Rather than the old “Type A” and “Type B” arbitration system, teams may now offer eligible free agents a one-year deal for the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball, which this year comes out to $14.1 million.

If the idea of the draft serving to aid two of the wealthiest teams in the sport, especially when one is the defending champion, seems counterintuitive, it is. Yet that’s exactly what the new CBA has brought, as the fears of many who worried that small-market teams would find themselves further handicapped are being realized.

Under the old system — which, to be completely fair, no one particularly loved — teams could offer arbitration to any of their free agents. The player could decline and sign elsewhere, giving his old team a pick based on his status as a Type A, B or C free agent, as determined by a statistical formula, or he could accept and submit to arbitration. If the player signed elsewhere, his old club could receive up to two compensatory draft picks.

The key there is that there was no artificial dollar figure that served as a “one size fits all” mark, like the current system does. The team and player could submit their figures, and the arbitrator would choose one, giving each side incentive to stick to something realistic for that particular player.

Ironically, part of the reason the system was changed was because big-market teams were exploiting it — remember the Red Sox having five first-round picks in 2005? — but the new rules haven’t changed much. Many teams are bidding farewell to useful free agents because they are afraid of a one year, $14.1 million deal, taking the idea of draft pick compensation completely off the table.

Haves and have-nots

The problem with the new system is demonstrated fairly well by Bartolo Colon and Hiroki Kuroda. Colon, 40, and Kuroda, 38, are coming off very similar seasons and considering their age would almost certainly be valued comparably in a vacuum. However, the A’s are not in a position to risk $14 million on an aging pitcher, which is why Colon did not get a qualifying offer. The Yankees, however, can take that gamble, and made the tender to Kuroda, which means they will get an extra draft pick should he sign elsewhere.

This example isn’t perfect, as $14.1 million would represent a big raise for Colon and a slight pay cut for Kuroda, but their past salary isn’t that relevant to how they should be valued now.

For the Yankees and Red Sox, qualifying offers carry minimal risk. They can afford to carry multiple players who are making close to that level or more anyway, to start with, and even if, say, Kuroda, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, and Stephen Drew had all accepted their offers — which was never going to happen — New York and Boston could have made that work.

A full 10 of the 22 offers came from the Red Sox and Yankees alone, and a huge majority came from other teams that can easily be considered big players, like the Texas Rangers (Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton) andSt. Louis Cardinals (Carlos Beltran, Kyle Lohse).

That’s because it’s offered almost exclusively to players who are all but certain to go off and get huge, multi-year contracts, like when the Rays were able to extend an offer to B.J. Upton last season. Upton even reaching that point was something of a rarity, because most smaller teams have either locked up their young stars before free agency hits (see: Evan Longoria) or traded them for huge returns (see: James Shields).

By design, this system is meant to reward wealthier teams who can both hang on to players through free agency and then risk the $14.1 million salary.

Broken system

To its credit, MLB tried to build in some safeguards for this, like protecting the first-round picks of the worst 10 teams, in theory enabling them to sign a qualifying offer player without losing more than a second-round pick, and creating the competitive balance draft. It’s nice, but somewhat without teeth. Many of those teams with protected picks aren’t at the right point in the win cycle to buy expensive free agents — that is, the difference between 67 wins and 71 wins doesn’t mean a whole lot — even if those top players did want to go to losing teams, which many do not.

The competitive balance draft is somewhat better, because it distributes extra picks to the smallest-market and lowest-revenue teams based on a lottery. Still, some of those picks come between the first and second rounds and the rest between the second and third; since they come after the qualifying offer compensation picks, which are at the end of the first round, those teams still get their extra picks behind teams like the Yankees and Red Sox.

In theory, the draft is supposed to help the worst teams while keeping costs down, which is why it is generally seen as the best path to success for small-market clubs. But as we’re seeing with the free-agent compensation system, all that is happening is that the rich are getting richer.

Was there a bigger disappointment in 2013 than the Los Angeles Angels? Perhaps the Washington Nationals or the Toronto Blue Jays are in the conversation, but to suffer 84 losses after spending on Josh Hamilton and being an overwhelming preseason playoff pick was nothing less than a crushing blow for Arte Moreno’s heavily-hyped team.

Coming off their terrible season, the Angels find themselves in something of a difficult position headed into 2014. Once likely arbitration cases are figured in, they have approximately $140 million in contracts on the books, including four different players — Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson — making at least $18 million, and that limits their flexibility to improve.

The good news is that after starting out at 17-27, they were above .500 (61-56) from late May through the end of the season. As we saw with the Red Sox, a team with star talent can make a quick turnaround, and since the Angels already have an expensive payroll with big names, they are motivated to go for it all in 2014. Here’s how they can turn it around.

Any accounting of what the team must do has to begin with what they have, and the Angels aren’t without their share of positives. That starts, of course, with Mike Trout, who is just about unarguably the best player in baseball even if he won’t be the Most Valuable Player. Trout made just less than $1 million total over the past two seasons while giving the Angels more than 20 WAR.

Unfortunately, more help isn’t coming from within the organization. The team’s consensus top prospect, third baseman Kaleb Cowart, hit only .221/.279/.301 at Double-A, and everyone else in their top 10 is either low impact or several years away, with only relieverNick Maronde perhaps likely to impact the 2014 team.

That’s what will happen when you haven’t had a first-round pick since 2011 thanks to your free-agent signings. With the state of the system being what it is, the Angels really can’t afford to give up yet another top pick by signing a player who comes with a qualifying offer, or they’ll never right this ship. That means expensive free agents like Shin-Soo Choo orRobinson Cano can’t really be considered, even if they did fit into the budget.

Pitching, pitching, pitching

While Jered Weaver was fine after returning from an early-season broken left elbow that cost him nearly two months, his declining velocity is a huge red flag, and he can no longer be seen as the ace he once was. With the back end of the rotation in shambles — Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson were disasters, Jason Vargas can be a free agent and Jerome Williams should be a long reliever or emergency starter only — the Angels need at least two starters to go with Weaver, Wilson and Garrett Richards.

Depending on how wide Moreno is willing to open the checkbook, Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka is a perfect fit here, because he’ll provide badly-needed talent without costing a draft pick — and his posting fee won’t count against the luxury tax. Unfortunately for the Angels, that’s the exact same rationale that will make him so attractive to suitors like the Yankees and Dodgers. But if Moreno is motivated to take some of the spotlight back in Southern California, that’s how you do it.

Be active on the trade market

Peter Bourjos, Howie Kendrick and Mark Trumbo have heard their names in trade rumors for most of the past year, and now is the time to move one or more of them to add more pitching. Bourjos is a sublime defensive outfielder who has had trouble staying healthy, and may find himself without a spot if 2013 surprise Kole Calhoun proves he’s worthy to start next to Trout and Hamilton. Trumbo’s obvious on-base deficiencies are somewhat masked by the fact he has plus power (95 homers in three years) in a game where that’s increasingly difficult to find, and he’s already been linked to clubs like San Diego, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.

Kendrick is an interesting case because while replacing him with Grant Green or an inexpensive alternative like Mark Ellis (assuming the Dodgers decline his option) would be a step down, his talent and contract — due $18.9 million over the next two years — make him a valuable asset in an extremely thin second-base market. Assuming Cano returns to New York, it’s easy to see contending teams with excess pitching and room to improve at second base (Baltimore, Detroit if Omar Infante leaves, Atlanta, perhaps Kansas City or Washington) being willing to send starting pitching value in return.

Pray for Hamilton and Pujols

The sad truth, however, is that the Angels absolutely need their two highly-compensated stars to start giving a return on their investment. There’s almost no hope at this point that either one will actually be worth all of the money they’re receiving, but it’s important to remember that this isn’t another Wells situation, at least not yet. Hamilton was of course a mess in his first season in California, but still managed roughly league-average production with 21 homers and 1.9 WAR. It’s also worth noting that he was much better in the second half (.344 wOBA) than in the first (.302 wOBA), so it’s not unreasonable to expect better production in 2014.

Pujols is more of a concern, because while he had a .329 wOBA in a league that averaged .318, if you compare him only to designated hitters, he’s below average (.335). This is quickly looking like one of history’s all-time worst contracts, but the hope is that after eight full months of rest (he didn’t play after July 25), his troublesome left foot will allow him to at least be a mild asset in 2014.

The Angels won 78 games despite the fact Hamilton struggled and Pujols and Weaver missed much of the year. With healthy seasons from all three and the continued excellence of Trout, that’s the core of a winning team. With a few shrewd moves, they can compete with the A’s and Rangers.

For just the second time since the 1994 strike, the New York Yankees missed the playoffs, and as you’d expect, they’re not taking that setback lightly.

ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand reported that the Yankees are considering a $300 million spending spree this winter to put the team back into contention, while still planning to stay below the $189 million luxury tax threshold they’ve been working to avoid for years. The last time the Yankees did that, they followed up their 2008 playoff miss with a $423 million offseason run that brought them A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira — and helped them win the 2009 World Series.

Of course, part of the reason they’re in the situation they are today is because of that 2009 spree. Those three players cost them $64.5 million this year (including the portion of Burnett’s contract they’re paying for him to pitch in Pittsburgh) and brought them just 2.5Wins Above Replacement, with Teixeira injured and Sabathia declining. Still, in the short term, that helped them to a championship, and the hope is that they can do it again.

But while $300 million is certainly an impressive number, is it actually enough to propel the Yankees back to glory? Probably not.

Misleading dollar amount

To start with, let’s stop saying “$300 million” as though it will all immediately affect the 2014 team. When the team went on that 2009 spending binge, the deals signed covered a period of 20 contract years, with approximately $32 million of that actually hitting the books in the first year. (And, it should be noted, team payroll was actually down slightly from 2008 after the expiration of huge deals for Jason Giambi and others.)

With the team’s apparent insistence on staying under $189 million (really about $177 million, since administrative costs like player health insurance and worker’s comp count against the cap), there’s only so much room to add new talent considering what they already have committed.

As a whole, this group contributed just 4.5 WAR for the season, or basically what Jason Kipnis gave Cleveland on his own, and even that dollar figure might be light because it doesn’t include taxable performance bonuses like the $6 million Rodriguez would get for hitting 16 more home runs to reach 660 for his career.

Let’s estimate the money needed for rookies and lesser 40-man roster players at around $5 million, and make it $105 million so far. At this point, the Yankees have $72 million left to play with, and you can probably see where this is going. Without yet adding any new players, replacing Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Curtis Granderson and Mariano Rivera, or even accounting for arbitration cases like Brett Gardner and Ivan Nova, the payroll is largely ticketed for a group that consists of one aging starting pitcher, as well as three infielders and three outfielders well past their primes.

If we assume that Gardner, Nova and fellow arbitration case David Robertson return at around $12 million total, and Cano returns as part of the shopping surge at something like $25 million annually, that’s another $37 million on the books, yet even that is problematic. All four are quality players who can help the Yankees win, but the team will have merely maintained some of last year’s status quo, not improved anything. That is, Cano made $15 million in 2013, and he’s now in line for a substantial raise, yet he’s not expected to substantially increase his already-excellent play to match.

The A-Rod factor

Rodriguez’s status is, of course, the huge question mark here, since he may or may not be suspended for the entire season, saving the Yankees the pro-rated portion of his salary. The best guess at this point is that he’ll rightfully win his appeal and not be forced to serve the 211 games MLB is trying to impose, but that he will certainly sit out at least 50 or 100 games, which will recoup some savings for the team.

However, it may be another month or more before his situation is clarified, which makes it difficult for the Yankees to plan around, and of course if he’s gone, the team then needs to find another third base option in a painfully thin market.

The numbers we’ve tossed out so far are high-level and may not be accurate to the penny, because an in-depth examination of the contracts and the rules of the salary cap and luxury tax would require far more than this space allows for. But they’re in the right range, and you can already see the problem here, can’t you? A team in an exceptionally tough division that miraculously won 85 games in 2013 — “miraculously” because they were outscored by 21 runs, and were under .500 from early June through the end of the season — is being weighed down on one end by an old and expensive core, and limited on the other by the insistence of adhering to a luxury-tax limit New York could easily afford to exceed.

So sure, the Yankees could gamble on Japanese import Masahiro Tanaka to join the rotation, or add the aging (yet still productive) Carlos Beltran to the outfield, or make a risky bet on catcher Brian McCann — or even all three. To do so would add something in the neighborhood of $45 million in salary (Tanaka’s posting fee would not count against the luxury tax), and would basically max out the remaining available payroll. It also leaves them perhaps two pitchers short of a rotation (depending on what free agent Kuroda does), light in the bullpen and without any sort of adequate backup plans for the multitude of risks Teixeira, Jeter and Rodriguez offer in the infield.

For this plan to work, the team would need an influx of talent from the minors to make an immediate impact, but the Yankees don’t have the kind of prospects on the horizon who can be expected to make a difference in 2014.

The Yankees can improve their team this winter, and they can also stay under the cap limit. It’s just going to be very hard to do both, and unless Sabathia, Teixeira and Jeter suddenly look like they did five years ago, the Yankees might not be able to spend their way out of this hole any time soon.

It’s hard to feel shortchanged by this year’s NLCS, because the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have arguably the two deepest, most talented rosters in the league. These two franchises have been competing against each other since the 19th century, and the previous time the Dodgers made the playoffs, in the 2009 NL Division Series, it was they who ended the Cardinals’ season in a series that will long be remembered for Matt Holliday’s flubbed catch.

This promises to be a lengthy, hard-fought series for the right to advance to the World Series. Here’s a look at the key matchups and under-the-radar players.

Cardinals’ X factor: Michael Wacha

In Wacha’s final start of the regular season, he came within one out of a no-hitter against the Nationals. In Game 4 of the NLDS against the Pirates, he took another no-hitter into the eighth inning. He’s also all of 22 years old with 10 starts under his belt, so there’s more than a little potential for volatility here in both directions.

For the Cardinals, one of the downsides of needing Game 5 to eliminate the Pirates is that ace Adam Wainwright won’t be available until Game 3, so St. Louis needs its other starters to step up against the rested Dodgers rotation. Wacha is undeniably talented — 74 strikeouts in 72 innings, including his NLDS start — but still inexperienced, so how he responds to the growing spotlight in what might be two head-to-head starts against Clayton Kershaw could tell the story of the series.

Dodgers’ X factor: Don Mattingly

The fourth and final game of the NLDS victory over Atlanta will be remembered for two eighth-inning managerial decisions that loomed large. After Atlanta’s Fredi Gonzalez went with David Carpenter to hold a 3-2 lead rather than give the ball to the dominant Craig Kimbrel, Juan Uribe slammed a two-run homer that proved to be the winning margin … but only after Mattingly had called twice for Uribe to give Carpenter an out with a sacrifice bunt, even though Yasiel Puig was already in scoring position and Uribe had proven throughout the season that bunting isn’t a skill he has.

That came on the heels of a Game 2 head-scratcher that had Mattingly calling for a bases-loading intentional walk so that the struggling Paco Rodriguez could face Jason Heyward rather than Reed Johnson — a decision that ended as poorly as one would have expected.

Mattingly showed a deft touch with his starters by lifting the ineffective Hyun-Jin Ryu after three innings in Game 3 and successfully starting Kershaw on short rest in Game 4, but every decision gets magnified in the playoffs, and his choices thus far have often been questionable at best.

Cardinals’ key reliever: Randy Choate

With St. Louis expected to use exclusively right-handed starters in the NLCS, it will fall on manager Mike Matheny to effectively use his bullpen to neutralize lefty Dodgers bats such as Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez. Kevin Siegrist will help with that, but he’s so effective against hitters from both sides that he’s more of a full-inning type than a situational one, meaning that ageless ex-Dodger Choate will be the true lefty specialist here. (Choate appeared in 19 more games than Siegrist, yet threw 4 1/3 fewer innings.)

Choate, 38, hasn’t allowed a homer to a left-handed hitter in more than two years, a streak he’ll need to keep alive in big spots in the late innings.

Dodgers’ key reliever: Paco Rodriguez

For most of the year, the young lefty with the funky delivery was one of Mattingly’s main bullpen weapons, striking out 63 in 54 1/3 innings with a sold 3.08 FIP as he became Kenley Jansen’s primary setup man. Through the end of August, he’d allowed opponents to hit just .140/.214/.185 against him.

But as September arrived, Rodriguez struggled terribly (.308/.438/.731), then allowed six of the eight Braves he faced in the NLDS to reach, including a Heyward home run. Chris Capuano is more of a long reliever at this point, so if Rodriguez can’t be trusted, Mattingly is left with only J.P. Howell as a lefty reliever, potentially creating some matchup problems.

Key matchup: Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Cardinals’ offense

With Kershaw and Zack Greinke leading the way (more on them below), the Cardinals absolutely have to get to the lesser Dodgers starters in order to keep pace. Unfortunately for them, they’ll likely see the lefty Ryu in Game 3, and only one team in the NL had a harder time hitting lefty pitching than St. Louis did.

Ryu had a wonderful debut season in the United States, but struggled badly in Game 3 of the NLDS, lasting just three innings. Interestingly, he has a reverse split — he was more effective against righties (.280 wOBA) than lefties (.322 wOBA), making this likely Game 3 showdown a key one for the series. If the series goes to a full seven games, the Cardinals could see a lefty starter four times.

Cardinals’ key bench player: Kolten Wong

With Allen Craig still nursing a foot injury, Matt Adams has moved into the lineup and left the Cardinals’ bench almost entirely devoid of offensive utility. That could be a real problem as the games get tight, because Adron Chambers, Shane Robinson, Wong, and whoever isn’t starting at shortstop between Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma, are less-than-dangerous threats. (Craig is now claiming he could play in the NLCS, but even if he does, it’s unclear how effective he would be.)

Wong, who is coming off a very good .303/.369/.466 season in Triple-A, is really the best of this bunch and should get the high-leverage pinch-hitting opportunities. He very well might be the starting second baseman next season, and Matt Carpenter’s defensive versatility allows him to play five positions. Late-game double-switches that take advantage of moving Carpenter as needed could allow Wong to play a surprising role.

Dodgers’ key bench player: Michael Young

Young’s best days are long behind him, as is the value he once provided with his glove, but he’s clearly become Mattingly’s top pinch-hitting option. Mattingly rarely used his bench in the NLDS — Young and Ethier were the only pinch hitters used — and Ethier now hopes to be healthy enough to move back into the lineup.

That makes Young the man who is likely to get the bulk of important pinch-hitting appearances late in games. Now appearing in his fourth consecutive postseason, it’s going to fall to Young — not Nick Punto or Tim Federowicz or Skip Schumaker — to make the most of those chances.

Key stat: 76.5 percent

That’s the percentage of starts this season in which Kershaw (28 of 35) and Greinke (21 of 29) allowed two runs or fewer. They are lined up to start four games in this series, and that gives the Dodgers an edge in the pitching department — especially since Wainwright won’t be available before Game 3.

That percentage actually might be a little misleading, because it includes Greinke’s road back from the broken collarbone he suffered in April; the previous time he allowed more than two earned runs was July 27, more than two months ago. Since then, the duo has allowed two runs or fewer in an incredible 23 of 24 starts, making for a huge uphill battle for the Cardinals’ offense.

Modest proposal: Give Shelby Miller a home start

This is unlikely to happen, because Joe Kelly or Lance Lynn is likely to start Game 1, but it should. Matheny chose Lynn to start the second game of the NLDS, and Lynn couldn’t deliver, allowing five runs in less than five innings as the Cardinals fell 7-1. That, along with Wacha’s ascendance, left Miller without a start in the series — an odd fate for a pitcher who finished the year right between Cy Young Award candidates Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale in the overall ERA rankings.

Miller did have a somewhat tougher go of it in the second half, compared to his first, but he rebounded in September (.238/.317/.324 line against him), and he’s got massive home/road splits (.253 wOBA against in St. Louis as opposed to .345 on the road) that basically make him Wainwright (who had a .252 wOBA) at home. He should be a candidate to start at least one game in St. Louis.

Prediction: Dodgers in 6

The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in one of the more interesting divisional series of this postseason. The Braves led the NL East nearly wire to wire, easily beating out the favored Washington Nationals, while the Dodgers went on one of the most historic worst-to-first runs in the history of the sport.

As they prepare to meet in Atlanta on Thursday, let’s highlight the most important players and matchups.

Braves’ X factor: Kris Medlen

Medlen is a very good pitcher who has been handed a nearly impossible task — outduel the great Clayton Kershaw at least once and possibly twice. Medlen wasn’t quite able to repeat the wonderful 2012 run that saw the Braves win all 12 of the starts he made after moving from the bullpen, but he still had a solid 2013 and really turned it on down the stretch, putting up a 49/11 K/BB ratio and a 1.37 ERA over his final nine games.

Kershaw will make it difficult on the Atlanta offense, so Medlen’s ability to keep pace is among the most important stories of the series.

Dodgers’ X factor: Yasiel Puig

Like it would be anybody else. With Matt Kemp out for the season and Andre Ethier slowed by an ankle injury that has kept him out since Sept. 13, the Dodgers’ offense has taken some big hits, and Puig needs to be the man to stem the tide.

Puig slumped to end the season, hitting just .214/.333/.452 in September, but some of that can be chalked up to the inevitable regression of his BABIP from the unbelievable heights it had been during the summer. The good news is that he kept his walk rate at more than 10 percent for a second month in a row and maintained power, so Puig not only has a chance to bounce back with the bat, he has an opportunity to show those who are convinced that his mental errors will cost the team in the playoffs what he has learned during his whirlwind rookie season.

Braves’ key reliever: Alex Wood

Many Atlanta fans were disappointed when it was announced that Wood would be returning to the bullpen for the playoffs, especially with the prospect of the ancient Freddy Garcia perhaps starting Game 4 instead. The rookie lefty with the funky delivery had made 10 late-season starts for Atlanta and was a revelation, striking out 49 in 53 innings. Now, he’ll be in the bullpen, helping to give Fredi Gonzalez an intriguing weapon to help an effective yet relatively little-known cast of relievers — guys such as Luis Avilan, David Carpenter, and Anthony Varvaro — get the game to the sensational Craig Kimbrel.

Dodgers’ key reliever: Brian Wilson

Yes, that Brian Wilson, the ex-Giants closer known nearly as well for his beard and his look-at-me stunts as he is for helping lead San Francisco to the 2010 title. Wilson missed just about all of the Giants’ 2012 run to the World Series after blowing out his elbow in April, and didn’t even make his Dodgers debut this season until Aug. 22. Since the end of 2011, he has just 15 2/3 innings under his belt.

However, Wilson has allowed only one earned run in 18 games as a Dodger, as he works to regain some of his lost velocity and improve his cutter location. And with usual setup men Ronald Belisario (who recently endured a run of 52 batters during which he recorded only one strikeout) and Paco Rodriguez (six walks and three homers in 6 1/3 September innings) struggling at the end of a long season, it might be up to Wilson to be the bridge between a solid rotation and an excellent young closer in Kenley Jansen.

Key matchup: Luis Avilan vs. Adrian Gonzalez

Without Ethier, the Dodgers’ lineup likely will be heavy on righty hitters, with Gonzalez and Carl Crawford the only lefties certain to play. (Skip Schumaker might, but more on him below.) That means that that the Braves will be sure to have a steady diet of lefties ready for Gonzalez in the late innings. Along with Wood, Avilan will get a lot of that work. Avilan allowed just 15 hits and seven walks in 114 plate appearances against lefties this year, good for a paltry .144/.219/.163 line. Gonzalez, it should be noted, doesn’t actually have a terrible split against fellow southpaws, and whether he can take advantage of that skill — or not — will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this series.

Braves’ key bench player: Jordan Schafer

The Braves were supposed to have put together one of the most talented outfields in baseball this year, pairing newcomer brothers B.J. and Justin Upton with returning star Jason Heyward. It didn’t happen; B.J. Upton was a tremendous bust (.184/.268/.289) and Heyward missed time with a broken jaw.

Instead, catcher Evan Gattis has been seeing most of the time in left field, but he’s a enormous defensive liability, as well as having hit just .224/.262/.425 since Aug. 1. That means that Schafer might play a big role in the series, not only to replace Gattis on defense, but to add speed off the bench (22 steals) and exploit some of his own huge platoon splits. Schafer is no star, and he absolutely cannot hit lefties, but he can help out Atlanta in a lot of little ways.

Dodgers’ key bench player: Dee Gordon

Due to the health uncertainty in the outfield, the Dodgers aren’t likely to set their NLDS roster until the last possible moment. But what does seem certain is that their bench will have a lot of guys who offer positional flexibility (Jerry Hairston Jr.), good defense (Nick Punto), and a nice reputation (Michael Young) — i.e., no one all that exciting.

If Gordon sneaks his way on to the roster, he offers Don Mattingly elite-level speed, and while Gordon isn’t a major league quality player either at the plate or in the field, Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton has shown us all just how dangerous speed can be when used correctly. The latest reports on Ethier indicate that if he makes the roster, he’ll be restricted to pinch-hitting only, meaning Gordon should have plenty of opportunity to pinch-run for Ethier and make some noise.

Key stat: Atlanta’s 22.6 percent team strikeout rate

The Braves have a whole lot of swing-and-miss in them, whiffing more than all but two other teams in baseball. Even when you remove the anchor of pitchers batting and just look at regular hitters, they still strike out more than 26 other teams. That’s because in a league with an average of 19 percent, Atlanta has four hitters at 25 percent or higher: Justin Upton, Schafer, B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla, with the latter two over a whopping 30 percent. Pair that with a Dodgers staff that led the National League in strikeout percentage, and you have a recipe for an excessive amount of strike-three calls.

Modest proposal: Start Scott Van Slyke over Skip Schumaker

With Kemp out and Ethier slowed, the Dodgers suddenly find themselves without a center fielder. More than likely, utilityman Schumaker is going to fill the role, with the main argument apparently being “he started in center for the 2011 Cardinals during the World Series and they won a ring,” which ignores the fact that he managed just two singles in the series.

Schumaker offers little power or speed to go with a large platoon split, and most defensive metrics rate him poorly. Instead, Don Mattingly might be better served by living with the adventure that is Puig in center field in order to start Van Slyke — who isn’t much of an outfielder either, but at least showed good power in limited play this year — in right field. Against lefties, such as Mike Minor in Game 2, it’s an absolute must.

Prediction: Dodgers in five

As we head into the playoffs, you’ll surely hear a lot about why each team has what it takes to go all the way and win the World Series. Today, we’re taking the opposite approach. Here’s a look at why each of the five National League playoff teams will not win it all.

Atlanta Braves: Lack of an “ace” and a top-heavy offense

Led by the underrated Mike Minor and boosted by rookie Julio Teheran, Atlanta’s deep rotation gave the club a chance to win every day, not only weathering a lost season from Brandon Beachy and a season-ending injury to Tim Hudson, but improving down the stretch thanks to 11 solid starts from rookie Alex Wood.

Yet while this rotation is built well for the day-in, day-out rigors of a long season, the Braves might find difficulty matching up with the elite-level starters they’ll find in the playoffs — such as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in the National League Division Series. Minor’s 3.39 FIP leads the remaining Braves starters (Wood is headed to the bullpen), yet is just 19th in the National League, behind four different Dodgers starters and two apiece from the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates.

The Braves might also find themselves limited by their top-heavy offense, which has a few star-level performers in the second half (Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons, provided you include his defense) but also some complete anchors (B.J. Upton, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla and Jordan Schafer). Catcher Brian McCann, he of the .296 OBP since the All-Star Game, is now also dealing with a strained adductor muscle. And though it’s not expected to be serious, it’s another issue he doesn’t need.

Cincinnati Reds: Struggle against the best

Reds fans should be terrified about Dusty Baker’s usage — or lack thereof — of closer Aroldis Chapman, as well as his infuriating bunting tendencies, but the biggest reason the Reds won’t go all the way is that they have been unable to beat the best teams this year. Cincinnati fattened up on lousy teams like the Cubs, whom they beat 14 of 19 times, and went 55-30 against teams under .500.

Good teams are supposed to do that, but they’re supposed to be able to beat their own class, too, and the Reds are the only NL playoff team with a losing record against teams above .500 — finishing with a poor 31-39 record against winning opponents.

October baseball is all about beating the best, of course, and the Reds posted losing records against fellow playoff teams the Braves, Pirates and Cardinals. (They beat the Dodgers four out of seven times.) Considering their performance against elite opposition and Baker’s tendency to help his opponents with some of his decisions, Cincinnati might be in for an uphill battle against the best the game has to offer.

St. Louis Cardinals: Closer and injury issues

Having to replace your struggling All-Star closer 97 percent of the way through the season wasn’t exactly the plan Mike Matheny‘s team had hoped to follow. The good news is that even Edward Mujica’s collapse isn’t as fatal as it might be on other teams, because Matheny can turn to talented arms like Trevor Rosenthal (108 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings), Kevin Siegrist (two earned runs in 38 2/3 innings) and perhaps even starter Michael Wacha, but all three are rookies, which always is a concern at the end of a long season.

If relying on such youth in the bullpen isn’t enough to stop this team, the health of a lineup that already has a black hole at shortstop might be. First baseman Allen Craig, one of the top run producers in baseball, hasn’t played since injuring his foot in early September and is unlikely to be available for the NLDS. He’ll be replaced by Matt Adams, who has been dealing with a sore elbow that cost him a few days earlier this month, though he’s still hit well. Outfielder Carlos Beltran has a sore wrist, while catcher (and MVP candidate Yadier Molina) has put up his worst month of the season after returning from a knee injury that cost him half of August.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Skip Schumaker, starting center fielder

With the unexpected news following Sunday’s season finale that Matt Kemp’s injured ankle would sideline him for the postseason, the Dodgers find themselves with a huge hole in center field. It’s true that Kemp wasn’t around for most of the team’s record-setting summer run anyway, but Andre Ethier was — and Ethier hasn’t started since Sept. 12 with a sore ankle of his own, making his availability for the NLDS a very uncertain proposition.

Don Mattingly indicated he would prefer to keep Yasiel Puig in right field, so if Ethier can’t go, that leaves the team stuck with bench player Skip Schumaker as the starter. Schumaker played just 12 complete games in center this year and was rated as below average by most defensive measures. At the plate, he’s a subpar hitter who had just four steals and homers combined, and has a large enough career platoon split that he’s nearly an instant out against lefties.

The Dodgers should also worry that usual setup men Paco Rodriguez and Ronald Belisario have struggled over the past few weeks ahead of elite closer Kenley Jansen, but that’s a secondary concern. Going from Kemp and Ethier to Schumaker is a huge blow that could cost them in October.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Facing right-handed pitching

The Pirates are a team that wins with pitching, defense and MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen. That’s been enough to overcome what is generally an average offense — their .311 wOBA was just 18th in baseball, between the noncontending Brewers and Giants. The good news is that no team in the National League feasted on lefties the way Pittsburgh has, topping all others with a 108 wRC+ against southpaws, including having five different Pirates who had at least 40 plate appearances put up a wRC+ mark of at least 176 against lefties.

Unfortunately, the Pirates were merely middle-of-the-pack against righties, and are last among all NL playoff teams; McCutchen was the only one who managed to get to even 125 in wRC+ against righties. Other than McCutchen, their best hitters against righty pitching (third baseman Pedro Alvarez and second baseman Neil Walker) are all but unplayable against lefty pitching, creating matchup problems against lefty specialists in the late innings.

The lesser production against righties is a concern considering that even if the Pirates can get past Cincinnati righty Johnny Cueto in the wild-card game, they’ll end up facing a St. Louis team that will likely have an all-righty starting rotation in the NLDS.

There are 162 games in a major league season, spread out over six months, and the mantra you hear from managers and players is almost always the same: Take it one game at a time.

That’s almost always good advice, serving to shepherd an ever-changing group of 25 players through the highs and lows of a long season, but in certain situations that kind of calming effect is no longer appropriate. With more than 98 percent of the season in the books, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in exactly that position, entering a series that’s more than just about adding to the season-long win total — it’s a face-to-face battle to see who hosts the one-game NL wild-card matchup between the same two teams on Tuesday.

(The Pirates are technically still alive for the NL Central division title as well, which may give them added motivation, but it’s beyond unlikely; not only would Pittsburgh have to sweep the Reds in Cincinnati, but St. Louis would have to drop three games at home to the last-place Cubs. Don’t hold your breath on that.)

Even though the Pirates have a one-game edge, the Reds would own the tiebreaker if they win two of three this weekend in Cincinnati. So whichever team wins the series gets to host the wild-card game on Tuesday. And while both teams would obviously love to host, the Reds have a bit more to gain playing on their own turf.

Road-fearing hurlers

On the surface, these are two very evenly-matched teams. Both squads have 97 wRC+, and in terms of run prevention, nearly-identical ERAs (3.29 to 3.35 in favor of the Bucs). Though the Reds won four of the previous seven games between the two in Cincinnati this year, each side scored 21 runs apiece; in Pittsburgh, the Pirates went 5-4, despite being outscored by eight runs. (Two of the losses were via shutout.)

That makes any added edge either side can pick up crucial, and both likely wild-card starters — expected to be resurgent lefty Francisco Lirianofor Pittsburgh and Cincinnati ace Mat Latos — would benefit from games at home, because each have pitched much better in the home whites this year.

In two previous starts this year at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, Liriano allowed a line of .250/.348/.500 and three home runs — one more homer than he gave up in 11 starts at home, where he allowed just a puny line of .174/.249/.225. Liriano has completely dominated left-handed hitters this year (.321 OPS against), which bodes well against the Reds’ lefty-heavy lineup, but his problems at Great American, a more hitter-friendly park than PNC, can’t be ignored.

Latos made three starts at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, and not only was it the only visiting park that he allowed more than a single home run in, his total of four allowed is half what it was at home, where he started 14 times.

The Aroldis factor

Reds fans may also hope for a home game beyond the obvious reasons because it may allow for a more effective usage of elite closer Aroldis Chapman. Though this clearly falls into a larger “old school-vs-new school” debate — and Reds manager Dusty Baker is firmly old-school — a source of frustration for many Cincinnati supporters this year has been Baker’s reluctance to use Chapman in non-save situations on the road, even allowing his team to lose with inferior pitchers on the mound while Chapman watches from the bullpen.

To cherry-pick just one example of many that directly impacted this race, the Reds lost 5-4 in Pittsburgh in 11 innings on June 2 without Chapman — who had pitched only once in the previous week — entering the game. Instead, Alfredo Simon, an effective reliever who is nonetheless far from Chapman’s level, was pushed to a third inning of relief and eventually allowed the winning run as Chapman waited for the “save situation” that never came.

Baker manages much differently at home in the ninth and extra innings, when there is no longer an opportunity for a save, like he did on Wednesday by using Chapman in the ninth with the Reds down 1-0 to the Mets. Whether by coincidence or not, Chapman performs much better at home both in 2013 (.169 wOBA against as opposed to .371 wOBA on the road) and over his career (.214 wOBA at home, .270 wOBA on the road), which combined with Baker’s tendencies, makes the Reds closer much more dangerous in Cincinnati. Of all the reasons why the Reds need the game at home, this one is the most crucial.

Pirate pandemonium

Off the field, there’s a slightly different approach to this series in Pittsburgh than there is in Cincinnati, where the Reds have hosted playoff games twice in the last four seasons. After waiting more than two decades for the next good Pirates team, Pittsburgh fans have already seen the end of the 2013 home regular season schedule, which wrapped up on Sunday when the Pirates lost to these same Reds 11-3.

It would be a cruel taunt if the Pirates finally broke that streak to make it back to the playoffs and found the reward was merely to extend the season-ending three-game trip to Cincinnati into four, without even so much as a home playoff game for the long-suffering fans who’d been patient for so long. So whatever stock you want to put in soft factors such as extra motivation from the crowd, you’d have to think that Pittsburgh’s fan would bring the noise a little bit more than Cincinnati’s.

Will simply gaining the home field for the wild-card game guarantee a victory? Of course not; the home team won about 54 percent of the time across MLB this year, and 54 percent is a far cry from 100. But for two teams that are so evenly matched, every little edge — Liriano’s larger home-road split, the Pittsburgh fans, Baker’s usage of Chapman — can have an enormous impact in a single game. That’s what makes this weekend’s series so important, both teams could use home-field advantage, and the Reds could use it a little bit more.

Yu Darvish “doesn’t fight,” wrote one Dallas-area media member earlier this week as the painful September slide of the Texas Rangers continued. “He’s crumbling under the pressure” and “not mentally tough,” added multiple fans commenting on the site of the Dallas Morning News.

It’s not particularly difficult to understand why Rangers fans are so agitated right now, because for the second season in a row, their team is collapsing down the stretch and ceding control of a division they once dominated to the rival Oakland Athletics. After consecutive World Series defeats in 2010 and 2011, the 2012 Rangers squandered a season-long run in first place by succumbing to a sweep in Oakland in the final series of the season.

This year, they spent 95 days atop the West and were within a half-game of first as recently as Sept. 6, but after dropping nine of 12 — including another sweep at the hands of Oakland — Ron Washington’s team now finds itself 6 1/2 games behind the Athletics and on the verge of being knocked out of a playoff spot entirely.

There’s no shortage of places to put that blame, but the bulk of the frustration seems to be landing on Darvish, mainly because the Texas ace hasn’t pitched the Rangers to a win in any of his past six starts dating back to early August — including two painful losses against Oakland. So Darvish, as the narrative goes, doesn’t have “the will to win” and isn’t living up to his ace billing, right? Well, not quite.

No support

When Darvish lost to Oakland last Saturday, he struck out 10 and walked one in seven one-run innings, yet the Texas bats couldn’t muster anything against Bartolo Colon, and the Rangers lost 1-0. When Darvish lost to phenom Gerrit Cole and the Pirates on Sept. 9, he also threw seven one-run innings before leaving with a cramp, but the Texas offense again disappeared in a 1-0 loss. The losses made Darvish the first pitcher since Orel Hershiser in 1989 — and only the fourth in the past century — to lose by a 1-0 margin four times in a single season.

In 11 starts since the All-Star break, Darvish has allowed more than three earned runs only once, while holding opponents to two runs or fewer seven times. In the second half, he ranks fourth in the AL in ERA, fifth in WAR, eighth in FIP, first in strikeout percentage and first in batting average against. Those half-season rankings are similar to what he has for the full season, and only the presence of Max Scherzer and his 19-3 record is going to prevent Darvish from getting the recognition he deserves in the AL Cy Young balloting.

As Darvish heads into Thursday night’s start against Matt Moore and the Rays, he’s actually on pace to have a historically significant season. Over the past century, his current 11.9 strikeouts per nine mark has been topped by only three qualified starters — Randy Johnson, who did so six times, and once apiece by Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood. There’s more to life than strikeouts, of course, but it’s difficult to look at the pitcher who is missing bats and not allowing runs and think that he’s your main problem here.

The real culprits

Rather than Darvish, Texas fans would do well to focus their contempt on Derek Holland, who just lasted a combined 7 2/3 innings in two September starts against Oakland, allowing 10 runs (nine earned). Or perhaps aim their vitriol toward failed midseason trade acquisition Matt Garza, who has allowed four or more earned runs in seven of his past nine starts — including six earned runs in a loss to Tampa Bay, their main wild-card competition, Monday night.

They might especially look at an offense that has scored just 55 runs in September, which is tied for the third fewest in baseball with the dreadful White Sox and Mariners. Texas has been struggling to support Darvish or any of its starters thanks to slumps by Adrian Beltre(.238/.304/.254), Ian Kinsler (.222/.253/.333, plus two outs on the bases Monday night) and Mitch Moreland (.154/.283/.410), and also because of the PED suspension to Nelson Cruz that deprived them of one of their top hitters.

Other than shortstop Elvis Andrus and outfielder Alex Rios, who came over from the White Sox in July, not a single regular Texas hitter is hitting at even a league-average rate this month. In the past seven games — all losses — they had played entering Tuesday, the Rangers never even held a lead. That’s not a typo — in seven full games, at no point did the Rangers have more runs than their opponent at any point.

It goes without saying that Darvish had nothing to do with most of those games, because this has been a team effort. Speaking after the most recent Oakland loss, the frustration from Darvish was evident, as he told reporters, “I can’t control it. I can’t do anything about it,” and “as a pitcher, you can’t control how many runs are scored. Am I going to go into the lineup and help the lineup? I can’t.”

Perhaps that’s a level of honesty that most aren’t comfortable with, because that borders dangerously close to the line of throwing your offense under the bus rather than simply spouting the company line that “we all need to do better as a team.” Maybe that’s why Darvish is taking the brunt of the blowback for this, or maybe it’s just mostly coming from those who still actually put importance in pitcher won-loss record despite all evidence to the contrary. Still, “crumbling under the pressure?” Far from it.

Whenever you read about the Pittsburgh Pirates these days, you hear about 2013 being “the end”. With their win over Texas on Monday, it was officially the the end of more than two decades of losing baseball, dating back to the Barry Bonds / Doug Drabek Pirates of 1992. Barring a massive collapse over the next two weeks, it’s soon going to also be the end of a playoff drought going back to that same season, the one that ended on Sid Bream’s infamous slide home.

As the NL Central race heats up, the Pirates have been treading water, having lost 16 of 30 games over the last month of play — though after being swept by St. Louis, they just finished off a sweep in Texas on Wednesday. The magical season, the one that has seen them spend 52 days in first place to date, might not even end with a single home playoff game in front of the Pittsburgh fans, should they be unable to hold off the Reds and Cardinals and end up with the second wild card spot. (The Pirates and Reds face off six times in the final nine games of the season, the closest we’re likely to get to must-watch baseball in the National League this year.) Wouldn’t that end up being the most Pirates way possible to end the streak?

Yet for all of the discussion about what the Pirates are in position to end, the state of this franchise is about far more than the ghosts they’re about to excise. 2013 isn’t the end. It’s merely the beginning, because this organization is being built for the long haul, not just to poke above .500 for one year before falling back off. (Looking at you, 2003 Royals and 2009 Mariners.)

The story starts, as it should, with the team’s best player. 26-year-old Andrew McCutchen is, by at least one measure of WAR, the second-most valuable player in baseball behind only Mike Trout. A true five-tool player who is considered by many to be the frontrunner for the NL Most Valuable Player award, McCutchen is also notable for doing what past generations of Pirates stars hadn’t. He decided to stay, signing a $51 million extension prior to last season that buys out two years of his free agency and keeps him under team control through the 2018 season.

McCutchen doesn’t turn 27 until next month, making him the senior member of an outfield that could potentially be overflowing with talent over the next few years. Starling Marte, 26 in October, has been worth more than four wins in his first full season, stealing 36 bases (along with 13 failed attempts, which is admittedly poor) to go with an above-average .344 wOBA and solid defense. If Marte manages to get four more extra-base hits (he’s been dealing with a hand injury lately), he’ll be just the third Pirate since the end of World War II to put up a season of 35 steals and 50 extra-base hits.

While the Pirates have had trouble all season long filling right field next to Marte & McCutchen — they’ve used 10 players there, and only four clubs have had less cumulative production from the position — that could change relatively soon. Gregory Polanco, who turns 22 on Saturday, moved up to #17 on Keith Law’s midseason Top 50 Prospects list while playing at three minor league levels, including Triple-A Indianapolis, and could see time in Pittsburgh as soon as next year. Polanco has stolen 78 bases over the last two seasons, so when he arrives, the Pirates will have three of the youngest, fastest, and most talented outfielders in baseball roaming the grass at PNC Park.

While the outfield is where the star power is on offense, it might be difficult to compete with the coming one-two punch in the starting rotation that Pirates fans have been dying to see since the team used back-to-back top-two draft picks on pitchers in 2010 and 2011. Righty Gerrit Cole, who turned 23 just last weekend, arrived in Pittsburgh earlier this summer and has proven more than effective, pitching to a 3.48 ERA / 3.18 FIP in 16 starts and allowing more than three earned runs just once.

Cole was already a highly-touted prospect, but even he has shown improvement in his brief time in the big leagues. Over his first eight starts, Cole relied mostly on his sinker and his fastball and had difficulty missing bats, striking out just 29 in 48.2 innings. In his last eight starts, he’s dialed down the sinker usage to take more advantage of his full arsenal, and the results have been clear — in a nearly equal 49.2 innings, he’s struck out 46 hitters, a much better rate. Cole’s adjustments made for national news on Monday night when he outdueled Texas’ ace, Yu Darvish, and struck out nine Rangers over seven scoreless innings — including striking out the side in just 11 pitches in the bottom of the fifth inning.

Taillon, meanwhile turns 22 in November and was the number two pick out of high school in the 2010 draft. Ranked ranked as a consistent top-fifteen prospect, he should make his debut next year. After years of wasting first round picks on the low-upside likes of Brian Bullington, Daniel Moskos, and Brad Lincoln, the team is finally reaping the rewards of smart, focused drafting. Imagine what we might have been saying about the future rotation had they been able to sign Mark Appel, their top 2012 pick who returned to the draft and went number one overall to Houston this year?

Along with 25-year-old starter Jeff Locke, 26-year-old third baseman Pedro Alvarez — both first-time All-Stars this year, though neither without their flaws — and 26-year-old lefty reliever Justin Watson, the Bucs have built up a core of excellent young talent that they can build around. With prospects like shortstop Alen Hanson and pitchers Tyler Glasnow & Luis Heredia on the way, the Pittsburgh pipeline should continue to provide reinforcements.

It takes more than just prospects to win, of course and general manager Neil Huntington is going to have to continue to pull rabbits out of his hat like he’s done recently with the successful low-risk acquisitions of important pieces like A.J. Burnett, Jason Grilli, Garrett Jones, Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin, & Mark Melancon. He might even have to package some of those young players for the additional elite bat this offense probably needs.

Even if it’s taken far longer than fans might have liked, Pittsburgh is finally a destination where free agents might consider coming if they want to contend. That might be a win just as big as any of the 84 they have so far this year, and it’s why things are just getting started for the Pirates.