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Contenders Without Enough Arms

We all know that depth is important for teams across sports, and with the largest amount of games to fill, it is of paramount importance for baseball teams. In a nutshell: over the course of six months and 162 games, stuff happens. This is especially true when it comes to starting pitchers. It’s rare that a team makes it through a season with its intended rotation intact.

Last month, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote that, on average, each team needed 32 starts from starting pitchers who weren’t among the five most-frequent starters. In essence, what this means is that teams need to have quality options at the sixth and seventh spots in their rotation. It is in this area that the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics and Atlanta Braves may come up a little short this season.

All three supposed contenders face injury concerns with the front five members of their rotation, and it doesn’t get much prettier after the front five. Let’s take a closer look.

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Astros No Longer the Worst

The Houston Astros have not been very good the past three seasons. They haven’t cracked 60 wins, and have generally played an unwatchable brand of baseball while doing so.

This year should be different. Not only are some of their prospects about to graduate to the majors, but they have acquired some depth at the major league level. They won’t be the worst team in baseball, and might not even be one of the three worst.

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Five Strangest Moves of Winter

Every offseason, there are some deals that make you scratch your head. Not necessarily for the money paid to the player, but for the return received in trade or how that player actually fits on the roster. The 2013-2014 MLB offseason has been no exception.

Let’s take a look at five transactions where we’re not sure what one team was thinking.

Colorado Rockies trade Dexter Fowler to the Houston Astros for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes

Fowler isn’t perfect, but he was the best center fielder the Rockies had. They preferred the upside of Lyles, hoping that they could find another Tyler Chatwood. And perhaps there is logic in that, because they’re both young pitchers who might have been rushed to the majors.

But where Chatwood has a good fastball and gets tons of ground balls, Lyles has neither a good fastball nor generates enough grounders to succeed at high altitude. Last season, among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, just two — Charlie Morton and Samuel Deduno — generated a higher percentage of ground balls than did Chatwood. Lyles, meanwhile, ranked 41st on that list. Perhaps the Rockies can change Lyles’ game, but that’s a big bet when the player you’re giving up is a known and precious commodity — a league-average center fielder.

The issue is that Fowler may be even be more than that. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th among qualified center fielders in wRC+, on par with Carlos Gomez. And now that he has left Coors Field, his defensive statistics — advanced and otherwise — will only look better, as the cavernous Colorado ballpark throws off all defensive outfield evaluations. To compound the problem, the Rockies are now hoping to play star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez in center field more frequently, but given the giant pasture there and CarGo’s past knee troubles, that plan looks like a recipe for disaster.

The Astros also gave up Barnes in the deal, but he is likely no better than replacement level, and the Rockies already had two such players in their outfield in Charlie Blackmon and Charlie Culberson. Barnes then became even more irrelevant when the the Rockies traded for Drew Stubbs less than two weeks later. He’ll be lucky to be the team’s fifth outfielder.

Los Angeles Dodgers sign Chris Perez

There’s no way to sucarcoat it: Last year, Perez was terrible. The Dodgers had a full bullpen of better pitchers — particularly Kenley Jansen, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell, Brian Wilson and Ronald Belisario. In addition, rookies Chris Withrow and Jose Dominguez were better. Heck, even Carlos Marmol, in his time with the Dodgers, performed better than did Perez in Cleveland. The Dodgers then added to their stable of competent-to-good relievers when they signed Jamey Wright.

With as many as eight competent relievers under contract, surely the Dodgers didn’t need a ninth? And yet, they decided to lock in Perez. This makes little sense, and will probably cost a kid like Withrow or Dominguez a shot at a big league job.

The deal also didn’t really make much sense from Perez’s standpoint, if his end goal is to try to retain a closer’s job. At best, he’ll be No. 3 on the depth chart for saves behind Jansen and Wilson, and the Dodgers will have no reason to trade him to a contender at midseason, since they will already be contenders. If he doesn’t work out in a middle-leverage role, he’ll be cut. And if he does work out, he may have pigeonholed himself back into the far-less-lucrative setup man territory.

The Dodgers are probably hoping for a rebound from Perez, but given that they already had a whole bullpen full of better choices, and the fact that Perez’s average fastball velocity was the lowest of his career last year, there is little reason to expect such a rebound. On top of all that, there was no reason to lock him up for a major league job in early December when they could have waited for cheaper options to emerge. All things considered, this move just didn’t make any sense.

San Francisco Giants sign Joaquin Arias to two-year extension

Like Perez, Arias is a replacement-level player. He has one skill — he is above-average at third base defensively. The Giants have sometimes made use of this skill — Arias started at third base 18 times last season, but the bulk of his work there has come as a defensive replacement.

In his two seasons with the Giants, he has played 129 games at third base, but he has started just 57 of them, and has played a complete game at the hot corner just 51 times. He’s a defensive sub — around when the team wants to give Pablo Sandoval a breather, and on the bench when they don’t. Nevertheless, the team locked him into a two-year deal this week, to cover his last two arbitration years. The cost will be modest, so it’s an easily corrected mistake, but one that shouldn’t have been made in the first place.

For one thing, Sandoval is a free agent after the 2014 season, and the Giants’ next starting third baseman might not need to be replaced defensively. Furthermore, Sandoval is once again in shape this year, and dare we say, the best shape of his life. With such improved conditioning, he might not need to be replaced as frequently himself this season. After all, it’s not like he’s a defensive disaster — for his career, he has a positive UZR at the hot corner.

Finally, the team has Nick Noonan available at the league minimum salary. Like Arias, Noonan is a banjo-hitting utility infielder with a good glove. The difference is that Noonan is a lot further from arbitration, and will make less for the foreseeable future.

Having Arias around this year isn’t the worst thing in the world, but given that the Giants don’t know what third base will look like next year and have a league-minimum earner around in Noonan, it wasn’t necessary to lock in Arias for a second year.

Detroit Tigers trade Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Robbie Ray, Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi

The Nationals may have got the steal of the offseason with this deal. Last year, Fister’s 4.6 WAR (per FanGraphs) made him the 12th-most valuable pitcher in the majors, and over the past three years, only eight pitchers have had a higher WAR.

For their trouble, the Tigers got a utility infielder that they didn’t really need and two pitchers who don’t figure to crack their starting rotation and have just a grand total of 31 innings pitched above Double-A. Ray is a decent prospect, but for a team that is trying to win the World Series right now, this was a perplexing move. The Mariners were the first team to be burned when they got too little in return for Fister, and the Tigers will almost assuredly be the second.

Nationals sign Nate McLouth to two-year deal

McLouth is a good player and the Nationals had some depth issues with their outfield last year. So on the surface, this signing makes perfect sense. But then you read things like the team expects to give him “significant at-bats,” and you see that he will be paid more than $5 million a season, which is more than what most fourth outfielders make. And you start to wonder, exactly how is this arrangement going to work?

By signing this contract, the Nationals are essentially saying that they are confident that one of their corner outfielders — Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth — will get hurt at some point. And maybe that will happen. But what if it doesn’t? What if they’re healthy all season? McLouth is a nice player, but any day he spends in the lineup in front of a healthy Harper or Werth is a day where the Nationals don’t have their best team on the field. McLouth on his best day might be as good as Harper or Werth on their worst, but you’d have to squint to see it. In the past three seasons, McLouth’s best wRC+ is an even 100; that is also Werth’s worst. Harper’s wRC+ hasn’t yet dipped beneath 121, and probably won’t any time soon.

Perhaps the Nationals want to play McLouth in center, but that wouldn’t be a great idea. McLouth hasn’t played significant innings in center since 2011, and he hasn’t played well in center since 2009, and that was really the only season out of his five with significant time in center field in which he was actually valuable.

Scott Hairston would be a better bet to play over Denard Span if he needs a breather. For one, Hairston hits right-handed, which better complements Span. For another, he has played a better defensive center field in his career than McLouth. For their careers, Hairston has been worth 3.4 UZR per 150 games in center, while McLouth’s UZR/150 is minus-12.3. And when you throw in the fact that both McLouth and Span hit left-handed and that Span is McLouth’s equal at the plate and clear superior with the glove (Span’s UZR/150 in center is 6.1), it’s hard to see how you would justify playing McLouth over Span at all, never mind in center field.

McLouth is a nice player, but he is inferior to all three of Washington’s starting outfielders, and in certain situations — specifically against left-handed pitchers — he is inferior to Hairston as well. So unless one of the other four outfielders lands on the disabled list, giving McLouth that aforementioned significant playing time will be a mistake.


Why Pirates Should Sign Morales

Even with the extra wild-card team additions a couple of years ago, making a return trip to the postseason isn’t exactly the easiest thing in the world to do. Half the teams that made the playoffs in 2012 didn’t get there in 2013, and a similar scenario is likely to occur this season. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a strong team with a bright future, but if they want to avoid being one of the teams on the outside looking in, they need to upgrade at two spots — first base and starting pitcher. There are myriad options for the latter, particularly A.J. Burnett, whom the team is still waiting on to decide whether he will come back to the Steel City or retire. But for the former, there is really one desirable option: Kendrys Morales.

Last season, the Pirates ranked just 19th in wRC+ as a team at first base. Gaby Sanchez is capable of crushing left-handed pitchers, but he is basically Rey Ordonez against right-handed pitching. The Pirates acquired Chris McGuiness earlier in the offseason ostensibly to help fill that void, but McGuiness will be entering his age-26 season in 2014, and he has just 34 major league plate appearances on his résumé. (The Pirates will be his third organization.) He didn’t reach Triple-A until age 25, and when he did, he didn’t exactly set it on fire — he hit just .246/.369/.423 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Banking on him should definitely not be Plan A. Although Sanchez hits lefties extraordinarily well and plays decent defense, he can’t be trusted to play every day. The Pirates need more.

They can get more in Morales.

Morales has his flaws, to be sure, particularly on defense. But hitting right-handed pitching is not one of them. Over the past two seasons, he has posted a 117 wRC+ against righties. That’s not star-level, but it is a lot better than the Pirates hit against them in 2013, when they posted just a 97 wRC+. And even that is misleading, as the two Pirates hitters who fared best against them were Justin Morneau and Garrett Jones, and both were jettisoned in the offseason. Sanchez, the one remaining first baseman, posted just a 73 wRC+ against righties and has posted just an 80 wRC+ against them in his time in Pittsburgh.

It is especially important to have a first baseman who can hit righties when you look at the starting pitcher composition of the Pirates’ foes in the National League Central. There are a bevy of great left-handed starters in the game today, but none of them resides in the NL Central. As it stands now, here is how they will break down:

Projected starting rotations for NL Central teams
CHC — Samardzija, Jackson, Wood, Rusin, Arrieta, Villanueva/Coleman
MIL — Lohse, Gallardo, Peralta, Estrada, Thornburg, Hellweg/Fiers
STL — Wainwright, Wacha, Lynn, Garcia, Miller, Martinez/Kelly
CIN — Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Leake, Cingrani, Reynolds/Corcino

Just four of the 20 starting pitcher slots are projected to go to southpaws, and no teams are slated to have a lefty at the top of their rotation. Furthermore, much of the depth behind them will be right-handers as well. This makes having a first baseman who is competent against righties that much more important.

Defense may be an issue, of course. It has been four seasons since Morales logged 1,000 innings in the field. (He has started 28 and 31 games defensively the past two seasons.) He might have played more frequently, but the presence of Albert Pujols in 2012 when Morales was with the Angels, and the Mariners’ strong desire to see whether Justin Smoak could be productive in 2013, made it unnecessary for Morales to log more time in the field. With Sanchez available for late-game duty, it should be less of a concern than it would be if the Pirates didn’t have him there for depth.

Morales does come with draft-pick compensation attached, but not all first-round picks are created equal. Back in 2005, Rany Jazayerli found that while a top-five pick — which the Pirates had for a number of years — would reach the majors more than 85 percent of the time, a pick in the 20s reached the majors around 70 percent of the time. The calculus has likely changed a little bit over the past decade, but probably not by much. This year, the Pirates’ first-round pick would be 25th overall. And while they would also lose some of their draft budget as well, it’s still far from the end of the world. Seven of the 10 players ranked as the top Pirates prospects by Baseball America were either signed as international free agents or were drafted outside of the first round. That is a credit to the Pirates’ scouting and player-development team and shows that they are capable of finding the gems that it takes to build a robust farm system.

Forfeiting a draft pick and having to dole out a large contract would be a bitter pill to swallow, especially for a non-star-level player, but Morales’ market is likely much more modest at this point. At the offseason’s outset, it was assumed that players like Morales and Nelson Cruz would find paydays in excess of $50 million, but that no longer appears likely. Morales’ price is probably more like two years, $20 million, and that makes him a much more attractive option.

This isn’t to say that Morales is the only option for Pittsburgh. Trading for players like Ike Davis of the Mets or Mike Carp of the Red Sox would be potentially great moves as well. But the Mets have demanded a high price for Davis, and the Red Sox aren’t exactly shopping Carp. In other words, it takes two to tango, and any player or players the Pirates relinquish in a deal with either club may be just as valuable as the player they would draft this spring, especially when you consider where the Pirates are right now on the win curve.

A first-round draft pick will no doubt help keep the farm system stocked, but the Pirates’ window for contention is likely the next four years, maybe five. The Pirates have to balance how much value that potential pick will provide in that time frame versus how much Morales could provide in the next two to three seasons. Perhaps Morales would bring in less value, but if it is even close, signing him should be a no-brainer. Sanchez can hit lefties just fine, but they are in short supply in the NL Central, and the only other option the team has is an untested, 26-year-old non-prospect. The Pirates need to do better if they want to experience another Buctober.


Yanks Infield Could Be Worst Ever

In 2013, for the first time in 11 seasons, the wins above replacement (WAR) posted by the New York Yankees’ infield starters was less than 10.0. In fact, it fell well short of that mark, as Lyle Overbay, Robinson Cano, Jayson Nix and Eduardo Nunez combined for a more modest 5.3 WAR. This week, two pieces of news came out that might make 2014 even more bleak, at least on the field.

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ALDS Scouting Report: Athletics-Tigers

For the second straight season, the A’s and Tigers will meet in the American League Division Series. Last year’s series was hotly contested, with each of the first four games being decided by two runs or fewer before Detroit broke things open at the end of Game 5. This series should be just as competitive.

Key matchup: Brandon Moss vs. Tigers starting pitchers

Since arriving in Oakland, Moss has brutalized right-handed pitching. His 158 wRC+ against righties during the past two seasons ranks eighth in baseball, and has easily been the best on the A’s. With the fearsome foursome in Detroit — all righties — the burden will fall on Moss to produce. Oakland will especially need him for power, as they are uncertain if they can rely on the hurting Yoenis Cespedes from that standpoint.

Athletics’ X factor: Sonny Gray

The club’s first-round pick in 2011, Gray quickly ascended to the majors and has posted great results since his arrival. His 74 FIP- was easily the best mark among Oakland starters, as was his 24.8 percent strikeout rate. But there are a couple of caveats. First, he only threw 64 innings in The Show. In addition, six of his 10 starts came against the Astros, Mariners and Twins.

On the other hand, if you subscribe to the theory that a pitcher has the upper hand the first time he faces a team, Gray holds all the cards. Not only has he never faced the Tigers, he never faced a Tigers affiliate in the minors and hasn’t faced them in spring training either. The A’s have to hope that works in their favor.

Tigers’ X factor: Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has compiled at least 80 plate appearances in 53 months during his major league career. He has never had a lower slugging percentage in a single month than the .333 mark he posted this September. It has been some time since Cabrera has been right health-wise, but in the postseason the Tigers need him to produce.

As good as the Tigers are offensively, they are powered by Cabrera. With Jhonny Peralta back, they could slide him or Jose Iglesias over to third base if Cabrera is still too hurt to play, but that is a pretty big drop-off offensively. It’s no coincidence that Detroit’s run production suffered markedly in September.

Athletics’ key reliever: Sean Doolittle

One of the 10-15 best relievers in the game the past two seasons, the lefty-throwing Doolittle hums it in there at better than 94 mph, and he does so as frequently as possible. Over the past two years no qualified reliever has thrown his four-seam fastball as frequently as has Doolittle, who throws it 87 percent of the time. When he does mix in his other pitches though, he is able to get swings and misses on them.

In essence, Doolittle is dominant. And Doolittle is no left-handed specialist. He is just as capable of setting down right-handed hitters as he is lefties. In fact, for his career, he has posted a better FIP and xFIP against righties (2.31 and 3.28) than he has lefties (2.74 and 3.67). This will be key because while he is most likely to be used against Prince Fielder, he won’t be vulnerable against Victor Martinez and Peralta on the way to Alex Avila.

Tigers’ key reliever: Joaquin Benoit

Tigers manager Jim Leyland made fewer bullpen decisions than most this season — the only team to make fewer pitching changes was the Royals, and then only by one. However, this was sort of necessary too, as Detroit had just 103 shutdowns, last in all of baseball (yes, they had even fewer than the Astros). With 30 shutdowns against four meltdowns, Benoit was the only reliever on the team to finish with at least 10 more shutdowns than meltdowns, and is really the only high-leverage reliever.

Of the Tigers pitchers likely to make the ALDS roster, only three had a pLI (Average Leverage Index) of 1.00 or higher: Benoit (1.71), Jose Veras (1.40) and Al Alburquerque(1.01). Leyland will need all three of them, but of the trio, Benoit has the longest track record of domination. Unfortunately, Benoit wasn’t that strong toward the end of the season (4.38 ERA in September), but he didn’t have any dramatic drop in velocity, so there is no reason for alarm, especially because momentum means very little heading into the postseason. That said, Benoit will need to be on his A-game — pun intended.

Athletics’ key bench player: Daric Barton

With Cespedes laboring through a shoulder injury, he may see some more time off than Oakland would like. If he does, Moss figures to spell him in left field, leaving Barton as the last man standing at first base. He won that role partly by default, as the A’s won’t carryNate Freiman on the ALDS roster. But Barton may also be key off the bench as he can draw out at-bats and force the Tigers pitchers to throw a lot of pitches. Oakland’s best chance of winning this series is to get to the bullpen as quickly as possible, and Barton and his double-digit walk rate can help them achieve that goal.

Tigers’ key bench player: Andy Dirks

With Peralta back, the most likely outcome for him is to play left field. This will make Dirks a backup, and he can be valuable in this role defensively. Peralta is learning left field on the fly — he had never played the outfield before the final weekend of the regular season. Austin Jackson is solid in center, but has battled some nagging leg injuries this season, and Torii Hunter is a good defender only by reputation at this point, having posted a below-average UZR in seven of the last eight seasons. In fact, Hunter’s poor defense has dragged down the defensive ratings of the entire Tigers outfield. Between him and Peralta, Dirks should find himself caddying for someone toward the end of every game.

Key stat: 77 FIP- for Tigers starting rotation

Top rotation FIP- in history

Team FIP-
2011 Phillies 77
2013 Tigers 77
1971 White Sox 77
1996 Braves 78
1997 Braves 78
2002 Diamondbacks 79
1998 Braves 79
1970 Cubs 79
10 teams tied 81

The Tigers’ 77 FIP- is tied for the best mark in baseball history (1901-present) with the 2011 Phillies and 1971 White Sox (see table), and they’re probably even a little better than that in the postseason, as fifth starter Rick Porcello moves to the bullpen. With an 88 FIP-, Porcello was good himself this season, but he still lags behind Max Scherzer (68), Justin Verlander (81),Anibal Sanchez (59) and Doug Fister (81).

Even against the A’s offense — which did hit righties well this season — this is the largest edge in the series and the biggest reason to put faith in Detroit. The Tigers rotation was tops in the majors this season at 25.3 WAR this season, which was 9.3 WAR more than the next-best team’s rotation and more than double that of the A’s rotation (11.2, 17th place overall).

Modest proposal: A’s need to be aggressive with their bullpen

Oakland’s starting rotation isn’t bad per se, but it’s better described as solid than spectacular. Only Bartolo Colon totaled more than 2.0 WAR, and at some point his act is going to wear thin. Combine that with the fact that hitters fare increasingly better against starting pitchers the more times they face them in the same game, and manager Bob Melvin is almost compelled to be aggressive with his bullpen. Luckily, he has the horses to make this happen.

In his bullpen, he has Brett Anderson, who is normally a starter and should be able to work extended stints. He also has Dan Otero and Jesse Chavez, both of whom recorded more than three outs per outing with regularity this season. Deploying this trio — who posted FIPs ranging from 2.12 to 3.33 as relievers this season — will give the A’s key length without sacrificing quality. Also, with Doolittle, Ryan Cook and Grant Balfour all capable of closing out games, Oakland has the freedom to insert one of them early in the game if there is a high-leverage situation. Given how good the top of Detroit’s lineup is, Oakland’s starting pitchers should rarely — if at all — be allowed to face it a third time.

Prediction: Tigers in 5


Why Boston won’t implode in 2013

On Sept. 1, 2011, the Red Sox had the best record in the American League. On Sept. 1, 2013, the Red Sox had the best record in the American League. But for Boston, which moved up three spots to third in the ESPN Power Rankings this week, the starting rotation’s poor work that caused the disastrous 2011 implosion is a thing of the past. This year’s rotation is not only just as talented but also deeper.

The depth is the key here. In September 2011, the Red Sox’s rotation was running on fumes. Its starting five had pitched well in July and August, but things crashed and burned in September. Like this year, the Red Sox lost Clay Buchholz in June 2011. But unlike this year, Buchholz never pitched again. (Buchholz is expected back later this month and has already made one rehab start.) That forced the team to first hand the ball to Andrew Miller, who quickly proved that he should never be trusted as a starter again — in his 40 1/3 innings in the rotation in June and July, he struck out 25 and walked 25 and posted a 5.36 ERA.

After Miller, the team turned to trade deadline acquisition Erik Bedard. Bedard pitched better, but he wasn’t durable. An injured lat and knee forced him from the rotation on Sept. 3, and when he returned to the rotation on Sept. 20, he was a disaster — he allowed seven baserunners in a start that lasted just 2 2/3 innings. He gave it one more go seven days later in the penultimate game of the season and struck out six in a better effort, but still went only 3 1/3 innings.

When Bedard couldn’t take the ball in early September 2011, the team was forced to turn back to Miller, and the results were predictable. He tossed just 6 1/3 innings in his two September starts, allowed 11 runs and walked more hitters than he struck out. The Sox lost both games, and he was pushed back into the bullpen, where he has remained — and thrived — ever since.

Bedard’s injury on Sept. 3 left the team thin, and the situation only got worse two days later when Josh Beckettrolled his ankle at the Rogers Centre. Beckett would need to skip his next start, and in stepped Kyle Weiland. A third-round pick in 2008, Weiland had been a nonentity until ’11, when he punched out 23.5 percent of the hitters he faced in Triple-A Pawtucket. Still, he wasn’t ready for prime time. He got two spot starts in July and bombed the audition — he allowed nine runs in 10 innings and struck out four against five walks. But Boston had nowhere else to turn in mid-September, and Weiland got the ball once again. In his three September starts, he never escaped the fifth inning, and the Sox lost all three games. In his final outing on Sept. 19, he coughed up three homers to the Orioles in 4 2/3 innings. Of the 456 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings in the majors that season, only eight posted a worse FIP than Weiland’s 6.55 mark.

When Beckett was able to take the ball again on Sept. 16, it was with great relief. The team had lost six of its past seven and had allowed 60 runs in those seven games (for an abhorrent 7.5 runs per game). And for that one night, Beckett was fine — he tossed a quality start and struck out seven against one walk, and the Sox rolled. But working on regular rest his next two times out, it was clear that he was gassed. On Sept. 21, he struck out eight and walked just one, but he also allowed six runs as the then-lowly Orioles roasted the Red Sox for 13 runs total. Still, eight strikeouts … not bad, right? There was hope. But in his final start, Beckett’s average fastball velocity would dip under 93 mph for the first time in 11 starts, and the Orioles let him have it again. The next year, his average fastball would fall to 91.2 mph, and now after a May injury this year, his days as a quality pitcher seem long behind him.

Heading into this season, that is also how things looked for John Lackey. Demonized along with Beckett in the beer-and-fried-chicken fallout following the 2011 season, Lackey was chugging on the fumes of his fumes that September. He allowed at least four runs in all five of his starts that month and didn’t go past six innings in any of them. His 9.13 ERA that September was easily the worst full-month mark of his career, and after it he needed Tommy John surgery. When he came back this year, little was expected of him, even when he showed up to Sarasota, Fla., looking fit and trim. And for a minute, it looked like he would deliver little, as he left his first start with arm trouble and missed most of April. But since his return, he has been both a revelation and a rock in the rotation. He hasn’t quite been vintage Lackey, but he has been as good as he was in 2009 and 2010, and that isjust fine and dandy like sour candy.

 

Boston’s 2013 Rotation

Pitcher K/BB FIP- fWAR
Felix Doubront 2.22 85 3.1
Jon Lester 2.42 91 3.1
Clay Buchholz 2.79 59 2.9
John Lackey 4.06 91 2.8
Jake Peavy 4.35 94 2.1
Ryan Dempster 2.04 112 1.2

 

Lackey is part of a rotation that already runs five-deep with dependable starters, and if Buchholz is as good as he was in the first half when and if he returns later this month, the Sox will suddenly have more starters than they can pitch. The logical cut would be Ryan Dempster, who has easily been the worst of the bunch this season (see chart at right). But while Dempster hasn’t performed as expected this year, having him as a sixth starter is a lot more comforting than having to turn to Miller, Weiland or Alfredo Aceves, as the Red Sox did in 2011. And if for some reason they need more than these six guys — which is unlikely, considering the active quintet has made 40 of the team’s 43 second-half starts — they can turn to Brandon Workman. A prospect who graduated in midseason, Workman was touted by Baseball America as having the best curveball and the best control in the farm system this year, and he has delivered as advertised — he has struck out 37 hitters and walked just 12 in his 34 innings in Boston thus far.

Looking at the seasons month by month, the 2011 starting rotation never posted a FIP under 4.00. This season, the starting rotation has had three such months, including the past two. The normal five members of the rotation have made every start since Aug. 6, when Steven Wright got a spot start. Entering Sunday, Boston starters had tossed 11 straight starts with a Game Score of 50 or better.

The Red Sox are as equally well-positioned in the standings this September as they were back in 2011, but in 2011 the floor was crumbling beneath them, and they didn’t have enough quality reinforcements to help them find their footing. This season, the Red Sox may not have a true ace, but if Buchholz comes back soon, they have as many as seven quality options in the rotation from which to choose. This puts them on much more stable ground than September of ’11, when no member of the rotation posted an ERA under 5.00. Boston still has to go out and win it and has a tougher September schedule than do the Tampa Bay Rays, but don’t be fooled — this season’s starting rotation is nothing like 2011’s, and the rotation’s quality and depth should help Boston cruise to its first division title since 2007.


Should the Braves Be Worried?

It was a rough week for the Atlanta Braves. Not only did they drop four of their six games but they also got the one-two punch to the gut of losing Brandon Beachy and Jason Heyward to injury.

They did drop another spot in the ESPN Power Rankings, back to the No. 3 spot, but there is little reason for concern at this point as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. However, some recent injuries reveal a team that could be very vulnerable come October.

Playoff lock

According to Coolstandings.com, the Braves have had a 99.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason since Aug. 4, and their mini-slump this week has not affected their odds one iota. Not only have they been the best team in baseball but their competition has been lacking. There is no other team in the National League East above .500, and, at 65-65, the Nationals have just a 4.1 percent chance to reach the postseason, which is easily the lowest percentage for a team currently in second place in its division. With a whole week of August still to go, we are already talking about Atlanta’s magic number.

The problem for the Braves is that the team that built that lead is not the same one that is taking the field right now. In fact, Fangraphs projects them to be just a .500 team the rest of the way, good for the 12th-best record in baseball. This is mildly alarming, but not for the reason you might think.

Momentum myth

If Atlanta stumbles down the stretch, you are sure to hear a lot about why that is a bad omen for the postseason. Now, a team never likes to limp into the playoffs, especially if it’s with two of its best players rusty or on the shelf. However, statistically, there’s very little to the notion that a team needs momentum entering the postseason tournament.

Back in 2005, Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times noted that, from 1969 (the first season of the two-division/league championship series play format) through 2004, World Series champions had a slightly worse September record than the average playoff team and that the team with the best record in September won the World Series only eight times in 35 seasons, and six of those eight teams also had the best overall regular-season record. This essentially means that just two teams that got red-hot in September went on to win the Fall Classic.

Momentum aside, the real issue for the Braves could simply be that they won’t be as good a team if Heyward and Beachy aren’t on the field. Heyward, in particular, has really come into his own. The still-just-24-year-old had been putting together a monster second half at the dish before taking a fastball off the cheek.

He had been hitting .317/.405/.554 since the break, and his 168 wRC+ — a measure of a player’s overall offensive contributions compared with the league average — was seventh-best in the game among qualified hitters. His jaw wasn’t wired shut, however, so there is hope that he can be ready for the postseason, even if he has to wear a Dave Parker-like mask in the batter’s box.

The only real effect on Atlanta, though, will be dealing with whether he is rusty once the postseason starts, as the Braves actually have several capable bodies in the outfield.

Plenty of players

The most capable replacement for Heyward  is Joey Terdoslavich, a 24-year-old Florida native whom the Braves plucked out of the sixth round of the 2010 first-year player draft. Since his call-up on July 4, Terdoslavich has displayed a keen eye at the plate, albeit in a small sample — he has walked in eight of his 49 second-half plate appearances, good for a robust 16.3 percent walk rate.

In addition, the team has Evan Gattis and Jordan Schafer, both of whom have tailed off after monster first halves but nevertheless possess the talent to cover for Heyward in his absence. Gattis is especially free for outfield support now that third catcher Gerald Laird is back in the lineup.

The story is similar in the rotation — the Braves have dug deep this season to find arms when they’ve needed them. For a while, there was the thought that they had too many starters, but when Tim Hudson was felled for the season, in stepped Beachy. But now, with Beachy possibly being lost for the season after a complication in his surgically repaired right elbow, the team can turn to lefty Alex Wood.

Wood himself had stepped into Paul Maholm’s spot when the latter landed on the DL, but now Maholm is back and Wood has been pitching well in the rotation. He has posted a 2.52 ERA and 2.56 FIP in his six second-half starts — both marks best the effort put forth by staff ace Mike Minor. Like Heyward, Beachy had been playing well, but, over the course of a month, it isn’t hard to replace his contributions. If Atlanta has any problem on its hands, it will be setting a postseason rotation — specifically, whether Wood is needed more in the rotation or in the bullpen, where he had pitched well earlier in the season.

Losing Heyward and Beachy in one week is no doubt painful for a Braves squad that has faced more than its fair share of injuries this season. However, not only do the Braves have good depth to cover for them but they are going to sail into the playoffs on the wings of their 13-game lead.

And even if they drag themselves into the postseason in T-101 fashion, their lack of momentum won’t be a death knell as long as they can get some of their injured players — particularly Heyward — back on the field.


Five Players Who Will Fall Off in 2013

Every year, certain players surprise in a good way, and we have already seen picks to click from Jonah Keri and breakout picks from Keith Law. But not everyone can be a pleasant surprise. Young players who we expect to show progress will plateau or take steps back, and veterans who we expect to maintain a certain level of performance will backslide. Let’s take a look at a few players that I am not optimistic on this year.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Back-to-back three-win seasons established Weaver as one of the best pitchers in the game, but there was an underlying river that threatened to undermine his progress — his strikeout rate. In 2010, Weaver struck out a career-best 25.8% batters, but his swinging-strike rate that season has proven to be an outlier. As his strikeout rate has declined — his 19.2% K% last season was actually below average — so has his velocity. Towards the end of last season, his average velocity was barely above 85 mph. With his 20’s behind him, Weaver is unlikely to see these trends suddenly reverse themselves, and he will become even more reliant on his control and defense. Luckily, both of those are still excellent, so Weaver’s decline may be soft, but his days of being an ace may be behind him. Last season he only registered a 94 FIP-, just six percent better than league average. That’s not the profile of a pitcher who should be the eighth-fastest pitcher in fantasy leagues, as he is at Mock Draft Central.

Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants: Another player who will say goodbye to his 20’s this season is Pence. The Texas native, who turns 30 on April 13, saw a sharp decline in his performance following his trade to the Giants last season. It might not get any easier this season. Pence has never been a player who relies on his patience, and has instead made his hay as a power-speed player. The speed vanished in 2011, and the power may go the way of the dodo soon as well. Last season, only one National League park depressed home runs from right-handed hitters more than did AT&T Park. It was also the fourth-hardest NL park for right-handed hitters for doubles and triples. This puts Pence’s streak of 20-plus homers in five straight seasons squarely in jeopardy, but it’s more than just that. After starting his career with five consecutive seasons with at least 3.0 WAR, last season Pence fell to just 1.8, and if he doesn’t improve, his days as a full-time starter may be numbered.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians: When Kipnis homered in four straight games in his introduction to the majors, it seemed like a new star had been foisted upon us. More than a year later, things appear less certain. Yes, Kipnis did sock 14 homers and swipe 31 bases last season, something that no other second baseman could boast. On the other hand, his 3.1 WAR was only the 12th-best mark at the position, and tied for a middling 69th out of 143 qualified players. His offense was league average, but after his ’11 debut, more was expected. His projections don’t look any rosier heading into 2013, as neither ZiPS nor Steamer project his wOBA to be a top 10 figure at second base. Steamer ranks him 12th, and ZiPS ranks him 13th. He’s not close to breaking away from the pack in either projection system, and both rate him as essentially akin to the Mets’ Daniel Murphy.

This runs contrary to his public perception — on MDC for instance, only Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler are being drafted ahead of Kipnis at the keystone. Part of the problem may be his home ballpark, Progressive Field. In his brief time in the majors, Kipnis has struggled against left-handed pitching, and that is doubly true at home. In his 128 plate appearances at home against lefties, he has hit just .184, and only 3.8% of the flyballs he has hit have landed in the cheap seats, a number that is well below league average. And while 128 PA is a small sample, it has been shown that HR/FB stabilizes around 100 PA, so that number may not take a turn for the better. This season, Kipnis will be 26, so he isn’t <i>that</i> young. He should be entering his prime, but his recent performance and projections offer little hope for growth. As a point of comparison, Pedroia had seasons with wOBA’s of .364, .377 and .359 by the time he reached his age-26 season. Last year in his first full season, Kipnis hit for a not-at-all comparable .315 wOBA. Kipnis simply may not become the star many expect him to be.

Michael Morse, Seattle Mariners: In his one full season in the majors, Morse hit .303/.360/.550 in 575 PA. In his other 1,115 major league PA, he has hit .291/.341/.462 — not bad in and of itself, but certainly the star quality is lacking. Add in some absolutely horrid defense, and you are left with a player that is only superficially a “beast.” Over the past two seasons, 107 players have played at least 1,000 innings in the outfield. Of them, only Lucas Duda has a worse UZR/150 than does Morse. Now, he will move to a bigger outfield in Seattle than he had been playing in in Washington. That’s not a recipe for success. Not only will his fantasy value take a hit — Safeco Field still kills right-handed hitters — but his WAR may be in danger of delving into negative territory.

Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals: In the past two seasons, Beltran has not missed significant time due to injury. Unfortunately, he wasn’t the automatic number-generating robot for the entirety of the two seasons. His 2011 campaign was a revelation, as was his first-half performance last season. But then his walk rate dropped, his K rate spiked, and his production dropped. Beltran isn’t going to be as bad as his .236/.302/.440 line that he tallied in the second half last season, but the superstar lines of 2011 and early 2012 will probably be out of reach as well. No longer an asset defensively, Beltran is almost completely reliant on his bat to provide value, and his bat isn’t going to justify superstar status. Neither ZiPS nor Steamer projects Beltran to have a top-20 wOBA among outfielders. Both grade him as above-average offensively, similar to players like Jason Kubel and Nick Markakis. What’s more, if Beltran does get hurt, he may find himself Wally Pipp’d by top prospect Oscar Taveras. It can be dangerous to put too much weight on first-half and second-half splits, but when the player in be pessimistic.

To be sure, these four are not the only players about whom I am pessimistic. Like Morse, Jacoby Ellsbury only has only recent banner season, albeit a borderline-MVP banner season. He probably isn’t going to get near that level again though. Dan Haren, Tommy Hanson and Brian McCann are all broken until proven healthy — all three are too risky for my tastes in fantasy baseball this season. From a fantasy perspective, Mike Moustakas is the embodiment of a player whose real-life value far outstrips his fantasy value.


Big Weaknesses on Contenders

Every year during spring training, teams are doing more than more than soaking up sun and trying to cut out early to get in 18 holes. They’re actually working on their games, and often that means working on areas in which they were deficient a year ago. In that vein, let’s take a look at five would-be contenders and the areas in which they should be focusing this spring. At a certain point, teams and players are who they are, but hope springs eternal, and hard work does pay dividends.

Detroit’s defense: It’s no secret that Detroit’s defense left something to be desired last season. It didn’t stop them from reaching the World Series, but that doesn’t mean that Detroit should rest on its laurels. While the Tigers had a middling .983 fielding percentage, advanced metrics — be it UZR, DRS or Defensive Efficiency — all painted the Tigers as a bottom feeder with the leather. The transactions they have made should make them a bit better this season. Omar Infante is a slight upgrade over Ramon Santiago, but mostly in the sense that manager Jim Leyland may be more comfortable playing Infante every day, while Santiago never achieved that status. Assuming that father time didn’t catch up with Torii Hunter this offseason, he should be a big upgrade over Brennan Boesch in right field. But it’s not all wine and roses. Likely starting left fielder Andy Dirks may have good range, but his arm leaves a lot to be desired. And then there is still Miguel Cabrera at third base. Among the 13 qualified third basemen last season, no one posted a worse UZR than did Cabrera. In fact, of the 124 qualified players last season, Cabrera’s -10 UZR ranked 115th. To be fair, his defense could have been a lot worse than it was, and he has worked hard to transition from first base back to third base. But he needs to keep working.

Boston’s walk rate: When Red Sox fans used to complain that the team’s games were too long, the main culprit was the team’s great walk rate. Last season, it was a different story. After nine years with one of the top walk rates in the game — from 2003 to 2011, no team had a better walk rate than Boston — the Sawx’s walk rate fell all the way to 29th-best in the game. There are two reasons to think that won’t continue in 2013. First, new recruits Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli and David Ross are exceedingly patient. Second, while Boston’s non-pitcher walk rate fell from nine percent in 2011 to seven percent in ’12, they still saw about the same number of pitches — their 3.89 pitches seen per plate appearance ranked third in the majors, which was in line with the recent past. The team did lose patient hitters in Kevin Youkilis and Cody Ross, but they are poised to once again claim a top-notch walk rate.

Atlanta’s hitting against breaking balls: In looking at the Pitchf/x breakdowns of how teams fared against each pitch last season, one thing sticks out — on a per 100 pitches basis, the Braves were the only National League team in the bottom five against both curveballs and sliders last season. Atlanta had a middling offense — seventh in the National League in runs scored, and 17th overall — and this inefficiency was a likely culprit. Looking to 2013, the situation may not improve all that much. The only Braves’ regulars who posted positive rates against both curves and sliders last season were Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, and neither of them will suit up for Atlanta in 2013.  On the positive side of the ledger is that Michael Bourn was well below average against both pitches, and he is also history. Andrelton Simmons may help, as he was leaps and bounds better against breaking balls than were Tyler Pastornicky and Paul Janish. Then again, Simmons doesn’t even have 1,500 professional plate appearances yet, and less than 200 at the major league level, so let’s hold off on crowing on him just yet. The Upton brothers may help, as for their careers both have posted positive numbers against curveballs, and Justin Upton has fared well against sliders as well, but neither has been impeccably good against the pitches. B.J. Upton had been a monster against curveballs until last year. Another negative may be at third base, where neither Chris Johnson nor Juan Francisco are downright Pedro Cerrano-esque. The Braves would do well to set the pitching machine to deliver a bevy of breaking balls this spring.

Oakland’s starting pitcher strikeout rate: Last season, only one team’s starters struck out less than 17 percent of the hitters they faced and still posted a winning record. That’s right, it was the A’s. The mainly no-name crew of castoffs, rookies and Brandon McCarthy didn’t pump strike three with enough regularity. Often unable to generate swinging strikes — their swinging strike percentage ranked a dismal 10th in the American League and 24th overall — Oakland had to rely on its defense more than most. Since they imported Chris Young, they will have even more defensive depth this season, but it would be nice if they could give their fielders a break more frequently. The team’s K% should come up a little naturally. The four starters at the bottom of their K% list from a year ago — McCarthy, Bartolo Colon, Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey — are all either history or will miss a significant chunk of the season. The three departed pitchers — Godfrey, McCarthy and Ross — combined for more than 20 percent of their starter’s innings, and all posted a K% south of 16 percent. On the other hand, their removal in and of itself isn’t going to make the A’s elite. For them to make real progress in this regard, the team needs their youngsters to take steps forward, particularly Jarrod Parker and Dan Straily. Both struck out at least 20 percent in every one of their minor league stops, but did not reach that threshold last season in the majors. It’s reasonable to expect improvement from both — both posted swinging strike percentages that were above league average — but they’ve got to go out and show it.

Yankees’ starting pitcher HR/FB rate: Last season, only the Orioles and Yankees posted a HR/FB (fly ball) rate in the bottom 10 and posted winning records, but while the O’s should get a different mix of pitchers (more Chris Tillman and Jason Hammel, less Tommy Hunter) the Yankees’ mix figures to be fairly similar — CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova, with David Phelps first off the bench as spot starter. These six started 88% of the team’s games last season, and all six posted a HR/FB above the AL average of 12.3%. This deficiency is understandable when the team is in the Bronx, as the corners of Yankee Stadium are fairly bandbox-ish. But only three teams allowed homers at a higher rate on the road than did the Yankees, and among starting pitchers, only Hughes’ HR/FB dipped under league average. The tendency to allow big flies certainly didn’t hurt New York’s chances of reaching the postseason, but any Yankees fan who hasn’t yet repressed the memories of Game 4 of last year’s American League Championship Series will remember that part of the reason New York was broomed was that they allowed four homers to Detroit in the decisive fourth game. This may prove to be a blip on the radar — the dismal 2012 HR/FB rates for Hughes, Kurosa, Nova and Sabathia were all career worsts — but just in case, the Yanks may want to make keeping the ball in the yard a priority this spring.