Bobby Abreu

Profile: In 2010, Bobby Abreu hit 20 home runs, stole 24 bases, and showed the same plate discipline (13% BB, 23% K) that he always has (14.8% BB, 21.6% K career) — and yet, there are reasons to think that the end is nigh for his fantasy relevance. While his stolen-base totals have stayed in the steady-but-solid range in the last six years (22 to 31 stolen bases), his Bill James’ speed score hit a seven-year low last year. With his bad body and poor defense — he’s pretty much a designated hitter these days — his lack of athleticism really has to catch up with him eventually. Also worrisome is the fact that he hit a career-low in line drives last year. He’s been undervalued before, and has managed twelve straight years with at least 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but as that speed dissipates, so will his remaining fantasy value. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: The old man with the beer gut has managed twelve straight seasons with more than 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but those wheels are getting a little rusty. Treat him more like an extra piece if he falls far enough, and you’ll mitigate the risk that his athleticism is providing these days.

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Travis Hafner

Profile: In 2010, Hafner played in more than 100 games for the first time since 2007, and managed an unflashy, but useful, .278/.364/.449 line in a deflated 2010 run environment as Cleveland’s primary DH. However useful that may be in real baseball, for a DH-only player in traditional 5×5 leagues, it won’t cut it. Hafner was last a good fantasy piece in 2006, a lifetime ago in baseball terms. Without the power to truly make pitchers pay, his walk rate has dropped. Even 2010’s numbers need to be seen in light of his .332 BABIP, so his average will likely drop. Cleveland doesn’t really have any other options at DH next season, so if he stays healthy (and even in 2010, he only played in 118 games) Hafner will help in counting categories; although, given the condition of the rest of Cleveland’s offense, he isn’t going to get that many opportunities to drive runs in or be driven in. Expect .260/.350/.430 with about 60 runs, 60 RBI, and 10-15 home runs. In other words, at this point Hafner is Billy Butler without the average. He should go drafted in all but the shallowest leagues, but don’t spend a high draft pick or more than minimal fantasy dollars on him. (Matt Klaassen)

Quick Opinion: Hafner had a mini-comeback in 2010, but the pre-2007 Hafner is almost certainly gone for good. He’s better than people think in real baseball, but not in ways that can help a fantasy team very much.

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Miguel Olivo

Profile: Olivo has racked up double digit home run numbers in five consecutive seasons while playing for three different franchises, but he’s decided to really challenge himself in 2011 – he’s going to the worst park in baseball for his particular skillset. As a right-handed extreme pull hitter, Safeco Field punishes his strengths more than any other park, and Olivo is going to have to do a lot of damage on the road to repeat his 2010 numbers. You would think he might have noticed what Adrian Beltre did in Boston after leaving Seattle, or how Jose Lopez failed to make this same approach work in Seattle, but Olivo took the security of a two year deal and now has to try to overcome baseball’s version of death valley for RHBs. Given that former Catcher Of The Future Adam Moore is still hanging around, Olivo will have some competition for playing time, so if he struggles, he might find himself on the bench more often than he had anticipated. (Dave Cameron)

Quick Opinion: Let someone else pay for Olivo’s expected power – his new home ballpark will stifle his production in a big way.

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David Aardsma

Profile: Heading into the off-season, it was essentially a foregone conclusion that the Mariners would trade David Aardsma. He has racked up solid save totals the last two years, but his shaky command and one pitch arsenal always left you feeling that he was something of a time bomb – eventually, hitters would stop swinging at his fastball out of the zone and let him self destruct. However, news broke in December that Aardsma would require surgery on the labrum in his hip, which nuked his trade value, and so he remains a member of the Mariners roster. He also remains one of the highest risk options for saves in baseball. He was already an implosion candidate before the injury, and now he’s going to get up speed in 2011 without a spring training to work out the kinks. If all these warning signs have you thinking buyer beware, you are a pretty smart individual. (Dave Cameron)

Quick Opinion: If he’s healthy, you’ll saves with a side helping of heart attacks. He might not be healthy. Discount heavily.

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Ryan Madson

Profile: For the last two years, Ryan Madson has been a better pitcher than titular closer Brad Lidge, and yet he only has 15 saves to show for it. Ask a Phillies fan, though, and they’ll assure you he’s not fit for the role. Perhaps he doesn’t have the temperament (he did kick a wall and break his toe after a blown save). What he does have is the ability to strike people out (10.87 K/9 last year, 7.67 K/9 career) and garner groundballs (50.4% last year, 47.6% career) while eschewing the walk (2.21 BB/9 last year, 2.77 BB/9 career). He’s 30 and only pitched 55 innings last year due to a non-pitching injury (the toe-wall thing), and seems primed for a great year. Unfortunately, in most leagues his value will depend almost entirely on the production of Lidge. Given that Lidge has both an injury-riddled and ineffective season in his recent past, it could mean double-digit saves for Madson by the end of the year. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: In recent times, Ryan Madson has been a better pitcher than the man notching the saves for the Phillies. Still, it looks like his owners will have to wait for Lidge to go down before getting any saves out of their pitcher.

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