Five Breakout Candidates For 2015

As we unveil the players ranked 51-100 in the 2015 BBTN 100, let’s also look ahead to next year and predict five unranked players this year who are positioned to land on next year’s list. This discussion won’t include top prospects like Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson or Noah Syndergaard because their talent is well-known and everyone expects great things from them.

Today we’ll focus on five young players who have already had a small amount of big league success and could find themselves with much-higher public profiles — and possible places in the 2016 BBTN 100 — after what should be productive 2015 seasons.

Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies

During what looks to be a pretty dark time in Phillies history, at least there’s Giles, who came up to the majors in June and did nothing but dominate hitters afterward.

No, really: In the past 100 years of baseball, only five pitchers have had a season (minimum 40 innings) with a better FIP than Giles’ 1.34. Obviously there are plenty of small-sample-size issues in there, so don’t take the historical nature of it too seriously, but it shows just how great Giles was after coming up. So does the fact that Giles’ numbers after his June 11 call-up hold up pretty favorably to those of the two undisputed best current closers in baseball:

The main barrier between Giles and stardom is Jonathan Papelbon, who still owns the ninth inning in Philadelphia. But even that might not really be an issue, and not just because Papelbon’s name has regularly come up in trade rumors. As we’ve seen in recent years with setup men Wade Davis and Andrew Miller, a reliever doesn’t have to be a closer to be a star. (Saves are terribly overrated and often misleading.) Someday soon, Giles will be Philadelphia’s closer. He’ll still be the Phillies’ best reliever well before that.

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Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

Over the second half of last season, Carrasco was basically Clayton Kershaw in fewer innings.

Stats over half a season don’t matter that much on their own due to the limited sample size; after all, in 2013, one of the best second-half performers was Ubaldo Jimenez, who promptly collapsed in 2014. For Carrasco, we have a much longer track record that says he won’t be any good, considering that in 529 1/3 innings from 2009 to 2013, he had a 5.29 ERA along with suspensions, demotions, injuries and a designated-for-assignment tag.

So what makes this different? The real, tangible changes we saw from a pitcher who was once so highly regarded that he was a centerpiece of the first Cliff Lee trade in 2007. A stint in the bullpen early last season had him pitching from the stretch full time even when he returned to the rotation, which seems to have helped him keep a consistent release point. Nearly as important, improvements to his secondary pitches — his change and slider both ranked as considerably above-average last year — helped make a blazing (95.2 mph) but otherwise straight fastball look more dangerous.

We’ve already seen Corey Kluber rank highly on the BBTN 100; a year from now, expect the Indians to have two aces in the conversation.

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Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman’s unfortunate season-ending knee injury puts an enormous damper on what was otherwise a highly anticipated Blue Jays season, but they aren’t giving up yet. That’s because in Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Hutchison, they have a trio of young pitchers, none even 25, ready to contribute immediately.

Hutchison is probably the least hyped of those three, but he’s also the only one who’s actually had big league success, throwing 184 2/3 roughly league-average innings in his first full year back from 2012 Tommy John surgery.

Now, it’s fair to say that a 4.48 ERA isn’t all that impressive, and that’s true. Here’s why you should like Hutchison, though — like Carrasco, he made identifiable changes in his pitching process that led to better results. (Also, a 3.85 FIP indicated that he suffered somewhat from poor luck.) Just look at how much better Hutchison became at missing bats and limiting walks as the season went on:

How did he come up with that 19.6 K%-BB%, a number better than those of Johnny Cueto, Zack Greinke and Jon Lester over the same time period? Around mid-August, Hutchison began throwing his slider much differently, which had two effects:

1. It came in slower, down 3 mph from April to August, which helped differentiate it from the changeup;

2. It added considerable movement, dropping 3 to 4 inches more than it had before.

Over his last six starts and 34 2/3 innings, Hutchison struck out 50 batters, and now he’ll have the added benefit of new Toronto catcher Russell Martin, one of the best pitch framers in baseball, and an enormous upgrade over the below-average Dioner Navarro.

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Corey Dickerson, Colorado Rockies

It was probably easy to overlook Dickerson in the outfield of the 2014 Rockies. After all, they had two-time All-Star Carlos Gonzalezand his $80 million contract, defending batting champion Michael Cuddyer and the breakout season of first-time All-Star Charlie Blackmon, who carried a 1.000 OPS into May. None of them ended up as the most valuable Rockies outfielder, however; it was the 25-year-old Dickerson, who put up a 140 wRC+ in his first full season in the bigs.

It’s important to remember that wRC+ is park-adjusted, so we’re not just looking at a player who was 40 percent better than average because he plays in Coors Field. Dickerson’s line was so impressive that it made him about as effective a hitter as superstars Freddie Freeman, Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre and Matt Kemp. It’s impressive company; since the turn of the century, there have been 658 player seasons of at least 400 plate appearances through age 25. Just 53 were better than Dickerson’s 2014, and 49 of those belonged to players who made at least one All-Star team.

It’s difficult to have a year like Dickerson just did and not turn into a star. Some might argue he’s already there. If he played for another team, maybe it wouldn’t even be a discussion.

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Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers

I mentioned Grandal as a breakout candidate in this space back in November, before he was traded away from the Padres. While the Dodgers surely appreciate his plus pitch-framing skill, that’s not what’s going to make him a great candidate to be on next year’s top 100 — it’s his bat.

As ESPN’s Christina Kahrl noted last week, baseball has been receiving more offense from behind the plate than you’d traditionally expect, and the 26-year-old Grandal is part of that trend — if you can look past his disappointing .225 batting average last year. It should go without saying that batting average is flawed, because walks are valuable and extra-base hits aren’t the same thing as singles, not to mention the fact that Petco Park is death on any hitter.

Since Grandal does draw walks and does hit for power, he looks a lot better with wRC+, which adjusts for park and weights those events appropriately. He was 11 percent above league average last year, and he’s been 19 percent above average in 777 career plate appearances. There’s reason to believe that more is there, however, because Grandal suffered a major knee injury just before the All-Star break in 2013 that was expected to keep him out for up to a year. Rushing back to be ready in time for Opening Day — perhaps too soon — he put up a below-average 93 wRC+ in the first half before busting out a 128 in the second half, much more closely aligned with his career marks.

Now, consider the added time away from the knee injury, the eighth-best batted ball distance (and first among non-righties) in baseball, the move to a Dodger Stadium field that’s not as much of a home run suppressor as its reputation would indicate, and the exponentially higher profile that comes from playing for a Dodgers team expected to make a deep playoff run. Grandal won’t even turn 27 until after the season, and everything is pointing in the right direction for him to become a star.