Schedule May Give Sox Edge Over Rays

There is a time for measured, philosophic calm, and there is a time for unrestrained panic. In Boston, it is time for the latter.

Despite a recent bevy of championships in a bevy of different sports, Boston and environs remain, to a large extent, home to the stricken Calvinist. As such, what’s unfolded over the past several days has left Boston Red Sox fans lost in a state of misery and in the embrace of worst-case scenarios.

What, exactly, has unfolded over the last several days? Those plucky Tampa Bay Rays, despite being outfitted with a payroll that’s roughly 26 percent of Boston’s, have hawked down the Red Sox in the AL wild-card chase and now sit two games back of Boston. Central to those developments is the fact that Tampa Bay has taken five of six from the Red Sox.

So how did such a thing come to pass? On the Boston side of things, it’s been a systemic breakdown. However, the pitching staff has been even worse: Boston starters, already hobbled beyond recognition, are lugging around a 6.37 ERA for the month, and Boston relievers over that same span have an aggregate ERA of 5.81. Hence that 4-13 record in September.

However, it’s not just the pitching that is at fault. The Boston offense is presently posting its worst monthly OPS since April. Dustin Pedroia has been particularly abysmal. He entered the season’s final month as an MVP candidate, but is hitting just .217 in September with 14 strikeouts and two walks. He had 66 whiffs and 80 bases on balls entering the month. The Rays were also able to take advantage of a major Sox weakness by swiping 11 bases in 13 attempts over the weekend. Boston has allowed an MLB-worst 142 steals on the season.

Given these trends and the afflicted state of the Boston roster, most of us expect the Rays to overtake the Sox and claim the AL wild card for the first time in franchise history. Seems inevitable, no? Yet despite all that’s been said about Boston’s current problems and Tampa Bay’s current merits, Boston’s probably going to be fine. For now.

Yes, a two-game lead, particularly considering what’s happened over the past fortnight, seems vanishingly thin. But this late in the season, it’s not. The Red Sox and Rays each have 10 games left to play in the regular season, and at this late hour any lead is a substantial one. To put a finer point on it, even after Sunday’s outcomes, the Sox have a 90.3 percent chance of making the postseason and the Rays an 8.6 percent chance of doing the same. Adjust those figures based on momentum and health if you like, but the Sox will remain heavy favorites to prevail. And they’ve got something else going for them besides the math — the schedule.

Here’s what’s ahead for the Red Sox: BAL, BAL, BAL, BAL, @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, @BAL, @BAL, @BAL.

And here’s what’s ahead for Tampa Bay: @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, @NYY, TOR, TOR, TOR, NYY, NYY, NYY.

The Red Sox will play seven more games against the lowly Orioles, against whom they are 8-3 in 2011. The Rays, meanwhile, will play their final 10 games against teams that have an average winning percentage of .574. To state the obvious, the Rays have a significantly tougher final stretch than the Red Sox do, and that’s the case even if the Yankees are in “cruise control” mode for the final series of the regular season and decide to rest their regulars.

Based on the Red Sox schedule, it’s hard to imagine them doing any worse than 5-5 over their next 10 games. (Remember, Josh Beckett is back.) Therefore, the Rays would need to go 7-3 just to tie the Red Sox and force a one-game playoff. And based on their slate, a 6-4 record is always a likely outcome for Boston, which would mean the Rays would need to go 8-2 to tie Boston. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not really.

In sum, despite what you hear and feel, the Red Sox, buttressed by a two-game lead and a far more accommodating docket of games, are very likely to prevail in the AL wild-card race. Trends notwithstanding, the Rays simply are running out of time. And nothing portends triumph in a tight race quite like playing the Orioles in 70 percent of your remaining games, which describes the Red Sox.