What with the terribly conspicuous signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this offseason, it’s easy to forget one important thing about the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim): they’re saddled with what may be the most burdensome contract in all of baseball. That contract belongs to, of course, Vernon Wells.

To grimly remind Angels fans, Wells was acquired from the Blue Jays in January of last year in exchange for Mike Napoli (he of the .444 wOBA in 2011) and Juan Rivera. Oh, and the Angels received a mere $5 million to defray the cost of Wells’s contract. And speaking of cost, the Halos will pay Wells $63 million over the next three years.

Last season, Wells authored the worst numbers of his career, which raises the possibility that his contract will worsen from “thoroughly ill-advised” to “boondoggle of unimaginable dimensions.” To be sure, Wells is an intelligent, self-aware, funny, and occasionally excellent ballplayer, but he’s not worth what he’s being paid. That’s not his fault, but it’s reality. To put a finer point on it Wells, according to WAR, provided $1.4 million in on-field value in 2011 while being paid more than $26 million. Suffice it to say, that’s not a sound investment.

So the question for the Angels, who have legitimate designs on a championship this season, is not whether Wells will somehow be worth the money — he won’t be. Rather, the question is whether he can help them toward their greater goals. The answer, with a caveat or three, is yes.

First, the depths that Wells reached last season must be acknowledged: there’s simply no glossing over a batting line of .218/.248/.412. In large part, the problem was that Wells’s line-drive rate cratered to a career-worst 12.3%, which was also the lowest figure of any qualifying hitter last season. While there’s usually some year-to-year fluctuation with line-drive rate, this level of decline is troubling. But regard these splits …

vs. RHP in 2011 .187/.213/.356 11.3 LD%
vs. LHP in 2011 .284/.320/.531 14.5 LD%

Wells’ overall numbers hide the fact that he was utterly feckless against same-side pitching but highly effective against lefties. For his entire career, Wells has been substantially better in platoon-advantaged situations, and, while everything else at the plate seemed to fall apart last season, his ability to hit for power against left-handers remained intact. And therein lies his value going forward. But he has to be deployed in just such a conservative manner.

Far too often, organizations are reluctant to treat bad contracts as “sunk costs.” That is, a player with a large and expensive pact, even if demonstrably ineffective, continues to play regularly because … well, because of the imagined mandates of that large and expensive pact. That makes no sense, obviously. Players should play because they help the team win, not because they’ve been promised a sheik’s ransom.

Taking the wise tack with a bad contract normally means releasing the player, but with Wells it’s obvious he can still help a team, provided his role is carefully limited. In his current straits, that means endeavoring never giving him a high-leverage plate appearance against a right-handed pitcher. Wells, as mentioned, can hit lefties, so he’d make for a useful platoon partner with DH Bobby Abreu, who, tidily enough is about as bad against lefties as Wells is against righties. Wells can also man center in an emergency and perhaps be a defensive asset at the corners when needed.

The Angels will be a better team if top prospect Mike Trout is an every-day outfielder alongside Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos, but Wells, even with three other righty-hitting outfielders on the roster, still has a place on this team. Pair him with Abreu (at least until Kendrys Morales proves to be healthy and effective) and let him play the corners on occasion when a lefty’s on the bump for opposition. Realize, though, that Wells is no longer a major-league regular. He’ll never again provide value on the dollar, but he can help.

The Washington Nationals, despite being linked in the media to almost every high-dollar free agent, have had a somewhat quiet winter. As such, it’s tempting to dismiss them. After all, an 80-win team whose primary offseason addition is a Type-B free agent (Edwin Jackson) isn’t redolent of “contender.” In the Nats’ case, however, that’s precisely what they are: a contender.

To be sure, the Nats can’t be considered the favorites for a playoff berth, in part because they have the misfortune of playing in a division in which only one team — the Mets — can be brushed aside as a non-factor. But they’re in the fray, which is more than can be said for the remainder of recent franchise history.

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When this week began, the American League Central was an eminently winnable sort of division. Sure, the Detroit Tigers won 95 games last year, but their Pythagorean record was a more modest 89-73, and in 2012 they’ll be without one of their best hitters in Victor Martinez. That meant an opportunity for an up-and-coming squad like the Cleveland Indians or Kansas City Royals.

But then the Tigers, despite solemn promises that they wouldn’t spend the money, lavished upon Prince Fielder a nine-year, $214 million pact. And now you can write in Detroit’s name at the top of the standings. Use ink if you like.

Sure, the idea of having Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Delmon Young wield leather at the same time for the same team is enough to haunt one’s dreams, but the powerhouse offense plus a strong rotation fronted by AL MVP and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander is more than enough to overcome those pratfalls in the field. The Tigers, barring a series of minor miracles, will win the division. And that changes things for everyone else in the AL Central.

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The Los Angeles Angels have had the splashiest offseason of any team. The Texas Rangers return an impressive core and may yet add the likes of Yu Darvish and perhaps even Prince Fielder. The New York Yankees, in the span of an hour or two this past Friday, upgraded their rotation by a notable margin. The Philadelphia Phillies return the most vital parts of last year’s 102-win outfit. The Boston Red Sox, despite the upheavals of 2011, have a tremendous amount of talent on the roster. Still and yet, the best team in baseball headed into the 2012 season might just be the Tampa Bay Rays.

That they’re in this discussion is not especially noteworthy. After all, the Rays, despite a basement-level payroll, have made a history of defying expectations: they’ve made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, and in 2008 they notched a pennant. They achieved all this even though, over that same span, they traded away or lost to the market core performers such as Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano and Johnny Damon, among many others. Yet the Rays, despite roster turnover, financial constraints and a home in baseball’s toughest division, keep on winning. In 2011, the Rays won 91 games, earned the same number of Pythagorean wins and of course seized the AL wild card in white-knuckled fashion. So why might the Rays be even better in 2012?

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The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in odd straits. On one hand, they’re coming off a season in which they barged to 96 wins and a division title. Their chief rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, lost their franchise player. On the other hand, however, the Brewers are poised to lose Prince Fielder to free agency, and reigning National League MVP Ryan Braun may be facing a 50-game suspension.

So what to make of this diminished team in this diminished division?

In 2011, the Brewers notched an offensive WAR of 32.9 and a pitching WAR of 18.1. Add that to the replacement-level estimate of 43 WAR, and you get 93 wins for the Brewers last season, which, of course, is close to their actual total. Still, their starting baseline is a bit lower than their 96-66 record would suggest.

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Barring a blockbuster trade to be named, Prince Fielder’s destination is the next — and last — big thing this offseason.

Fielder, the outgoing Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, is one of the best pure hitters in baseball. He’s coming off a season in which he ranked third in slugging and total bases and second in on-base percentage. At 27, Fielder is also entering what should be the prime of his career. So it’s reasonable to expect that he’ll average 5-7 WAR per season in the next few years (WAR = wins above replacement).

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs has already argued that the Texas Rangers could benefit greatly from signing Fielder, as could the San Francisco Giants, Cleveland Indians, Miami Marlins and a handful of other hopefuls. This raises a related question: Who doesn’t need Fielder?

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Not even the most privileged of human spawn will have as many holiday gifts to enjoy as the Miami Marlins. Indeed, besides a new ballpark, a new manager and new uniforms, the Marlins have bestowed upon themselves a new star shortstop, a new closer and a new workhorse for the rotation. So among the tattered wrapping paper is a pressing question: Does it all add up to postseason contention for the rebranded Marlins?

Last season, the Marlins limped to 72 wins, the same number of Pythagorean wins and a last-place finish in the National League East. So their baseline for 2012 would seem to be quite low. As you can see below, the Marlins were generally mediocre in all underlying phases of the game.

NL Rank
wOBA 9th
Rotation xFIP 7th
Bullpen xFIP 6th
UZR/150 8th
Run Differential 13th

Of course, there are those on-field improvements. Laying aside the fiscal wisdom of the contracts handed out, the Marlins will certainly be better because of their hot-stove adventures. But after all the hype, will they improve enough to make the playoffs? Let’s start with Jose Reyes. He will provide an offensive and defensive upgrade over what the Marlins got from the shortstop position in 2011. When healthy, Reyes puts up outstanding numbers by positional standards, flashes rare speed on the bases and plays capable defense.

On the downside, Reyes is coming off what was easily his best season on a rate basis, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to replicate those numbers. His 2011 spike was largely attributable to a batting average on balls in play of .353, compared to a .314 career mark. While it’s possible Reyes has established a new level of expected performance, it’s not likely. As well, Reyes hasn’t played in more than 133 games in a season since 2008. Reyes is a fine player and one who’ll likely live up to his new contract. However, some immediate regression is likely.

Also new to Miami will be Mark Buehrle, a pitcher who has notched 11 straight seasons of 200 innings or more. In the near term, Buehrle should benefit from moving out of the DH league and into a park that figures to be far more pitcher-friendly than was U.S. Cellular. Buehrle will almost certainly provide the Marlins with an ERA better than the league average and an innings total worthy of a frontline starter. Considering Josh Johnson’s penchant for injury and Ricky Nolasco’s penchant for inconsistency, Buehrle’s skills are much needed in South Florida.

A number of teams have handed out unwise contracts to closers this offseason, and the Marlins are among them. For a commitment of $27 million, Miami added to the fold Heath Bell, who will take over late-inning duties from Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez). While Bell certainly constitutes an upgrade, it’s not the degree of upgrade that leads to much improvement in the standings (Bell bested Oviedo by just 0.3 WAR in 2011). Moreover, Bell’s drop in strikeout rate last season might suggest forthcoming decline, and no longer pitching his home games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park might also exact a price.

Elsewhere, there’s the enigmatic Hanley Ramirez. He is coming off a disappointing campaign, but he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate. Ramirez’s core hitting skills remained largely unchanged last season, although a precipitous drop in BABIP led to depressed numbers overall.

As well, Ramirez’s surgically repaired shoulder should be fully healthy, so he’s likely to improve significantly in 2012. If, as planned, he moves to third base, it will address a serious weak spot in the Miami lineup. The shift would also play to Ramirez’s defensive strengths.

All of this, of course, assumes Ramirez will accept the position switch and maintain the proper state of mind.

Above all, though, there’s this reality: In 2011, the Marlins finished 30 games out of the NL East race and 18 games out of playoff position. Assume all contingencies break Miami’s way — the Phillies come back to earth a bit; Reyes doesn’t; Ramirez rebounds; Bell thrives; Mike Stanton shows skills growth; Johnson stays healthy; Buehrle is Buehrle; the run differential better reflects the team’s performance — where does that leave it? Almost certainly not in the postseason. The division title is out of reach, and the buy-in for the NL wild card figures to be 90-plus wins. The Marlins, even with their improvements, aren’t 18 wins better. A realistic goal? A winning season, a third-place finish and a reinvigorated fan base.

Last week’s winter meetings were filled with all sorts of moves, both big and small. There were a few teams, however, who did almost nothing, and the Cincinnati Reds were among them. That kind of inaction will usually make you the target of local talk radio hosts, but in Reds’ case, it might — just might — have put them over the top.

The Reds, of course, muscled their way to the division title in 2010 but regressed last season to 79 wins and a third-place finish. The two teams in front of the Reds in 2011, however, have been diminished by recent events. Most notably, the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Los Angeles Angels, and then outfielder/first baseman Allen Craig, a vital part of any post-Pujols scenario in St. Louis, was revealed to have undergone knee surgery last month. He’ll be lost until at least May.

The Cardinals certainly have room in the budget to add, say, someone like Carlos Beltran, but so far they look primed to fall from their 90-win level of a year ago, and that’s the case even with the return of pitcher Adam Wainwright from Tommy John surgery. And all of this is to say nothing of the loss of Tony La Russa, who might be the best manager since Joe McCarthy.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers, who won the division title flag in 2011, will almost certainly part ways with free agent Prince Fielder, and their rumored fallback plan — a badly needed upgrade at shortstop in the form of Jose Reyes — has already inked with the Marlins. Complicating the Fielder situation is that Mat Gamel, their likely starter at first base, doesn’t figure to even sniff Fielder’s level of production.

Then there’s left fielder Ryan Braun, who could face a crippling 50-game suspension because of his alleged use of a banned substance. And even though the Brew Crew won 96 games last year, their Pythagorean record — which estimates a team’s true talent level based on run differential — was that of a 90-win team. So subtract Prince and 50 games of Braun and you are very easily looking at a .500 team. As for the rest of the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros are still years away, though the Chicago Cubs could really spice things up if they make a run at Fielder because of just how wide open the division has become.

But let’s get back to the Reds. Unlike the Brewers, the Reds’ Pythagorean record (83-79 last season) portends better days ahead. On offense, young core performers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will be another year closer to what should be their prime seasons. Zack Cozart, now that he’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, should provide a significant upgrade over the awful production the Reds received from the shortstop position last season. The Reds could also be in for an upgrade at the catcher position once Devin Mesoraco is ready to take over for Ryan Hanigan. And Yonder Alonso could add some pop to the outfield or provide some pitching depth if the Reds end up shopping him since he is blocked by Votto at first base, his natural position.

The rotation is an obvious source of concern. Last season, the Reds, despite expectations to the contrary, ranked next to last in the NL in rotation WAR. The good news is that the Reds can assault the problem with depth: Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all return, and Aroldis Chapman might get a look as a starter, provided his shoulder holds up.

It’s obviously a bit odd to proclaim a team that was below .500 last season to be the division favorite, but considering the talent drain in the rest of the division, it’s hard to bet against the Reds. You’ve probably read a lot of stories about the “winners” and “losers” from the winter meetings. Well, Cincy might have gained the most of any club, and they did it without spending a dime.

The current iterations of the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have at least three things in common: all three crafted their own tragic endings to the 2011 season, all three figure to contend again in 2012, and all three teams don’t need to do very much in order to do so.

Sure, the Hot Stove is very much about conspicuous consumption. For teams with designs on the belt and the title, anything less than the splashiest addition might be regarded as a half-measure. For teams like the Rangers, Red Sox and Braves, this perhaps goes double: a crushing near-miss should beget major changes. Or at least that’s what many observers seem to think. As mentioned, however, there’s no need for a purge in Arlington or Boston or Atlanta, and there’s no need for pricey, top-tier signings.

First, take the back-to-back American League champion Rangers. Last season, they barged to 96 wins in the regular season, which is right in line with what could be expected based on their run differential. For 2012, they have under contract or under team control core performers like Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, Mike Napoli, and every starting pitcher not named C.J. Wilson.

Given Mitch Moreland’s modest upside and wrist problems, there’s some talk that the Rangers may pursue Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder this winter. Yet that may be an unwise allocation of resources for Texas. A better option might be a lower-cost hedge like Carlos Pena or Casey Kotchman. That would leave room in the budget to re-sign Wilson, although the conversion of Neftali Feliz to starter means that the rotation has depth with or without their incumbent ace.

On the whole, the Rangers are in a winnable division and have a great deal of talent already locked down. Big contracts — big contracts that may later prove to be burdensome — aren’t necessary for another run.

As for the Red Sox, lost in their lacerating collapse is the fact that they won 90 despite playing 84 games against teams with .500 records or better. More than chicken thighs, beer cans and video games, injuries — an inordinate number of injuries — are mostly to blame. During the 2011 season, 15 players on Boston’s major-league roster, most of them regulars, made at least one trip to the disabled list. Such a high figure is almost bound to improve in 2012.

Otherwise, the holes are few. Re-signing David Ortiz would fill out the lineup, and that lineup figures to again be one of baseball’s best. The loss of John Lackey to Tommy John surgery (hardly a bad thing from a cold-eyed organizational perspective) means the back of the rotation could use some depth, but there’s no need for a pricey frontline addition. The Sox wisely passed on re-upping Jonathan Papelbon at the absurd going rates, and Daniel Bard is ready to take over as closer. Middle-relief help is needed, but that’s never difficult to dig up, at least for a resourceful team. The overarching point is that the Sox, as presently constructed, are prepared to make a serious run in 2012. Wholesale changes aren’t necessary in the least.

Finally, the Braves. Like the Red Sox, they endured an impossible late-season collapse, but, also like the Red Sox, they’re in good shape for the season to come. Making Derek Lowe go away was a good thing, and the rotation behind Tim Hudson (provided sub-aces Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens are able to stay healthy) looks strong. When depth is needed, Julio Teheran and Mike Minor are ready to step in, or even seize a job out of spring training. Given the workloads foisted upon Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters, an addition or two to the relief corps is in order.

On offense, the Braves must hope that Jason Heyward, further removed from his shoulder injury, can rebound. They need help at short, but they won’t be in the market for a Jose Reyes or even a Jimmy Rollins. A reunion with Rafael Furcal? Or perhaps they might be willing to shop starting pitching in order to fill the shortstop hole (and perhaps snag an upgrade in left). And speaking of that upgrade in left, there’s enough out there for the Braves to cobble together a low-cost platoon.

While the offense won’t be exceptional, there’s some cause to think the Braves will improve on this front in 2012. To wit, better health for Heyward and Brian McCann, a full season of Michael Bourn, no uncharacteristic early-season slump from Dan Uggla, and skills growth from the already impressive Freddie Freeman are all reasonable expectations. Sure, the Braves have more needs than the Rangers or Red Sox, but the National League provides more margin for error these days. And there’s also the possibility of expanded playoffs in 2012.

Fans of contenders will always be frustrated by moves at the margins, but sometimes — as in the case of the 2012 Rangers, Red Sox and Braves — that’s all that’s needed to ensure another run.

Without question, Albert Pujols is going to command the largest contract of the offseason. And while there will much rejoicing in the streets for fans of the team that signs him (or re-signs him, in the case of the St. Louis Cardinals), they should know that Pujols’ next contract figures to be one of the riskiest in the annals of free agency.

Pujols, obviously, is a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and still one of the top hitters in all of baseball. Last season, his numbers slipped a bit, but he still managed to finish second in the NL with 37 home runs. As well, his wRC+ of 148 is the same as his mark in 2002, which reflects the fact that offense was down across all of baseball last season.

With all that said, the fact remains that Pujols is in decline. His wRC+ peaked in 2008 at 184 and then began a steady downward trend: 182 in 2009, 165 in 2010 and last season’s 148. Given his age, none of this is especially surprising. Last season, Pujols suffered a precipitous decline in his batting average on balls in play (a career-low .277), which could be somewhat attributable to bad luck/random variation or could be the symptom of a slowing bat. He also experienced a spike in his ground-ball rate — it jumped from 38.3 percent to 44.7 percent — which is potentially a troubling sign.

It bears repeating that Pujols remains a top-tier hitter and probably will remain as much for the next handful of seasons. The rub is that the market will likely treat him as something more than that.

If the rumors are any guide, then Pujols received a nine-year offer from the Cardinals last offseason and perhaps from the Miami Marlins last week. Since Pujols will turn 32 in January, that means a nine-year pact would run through his age-40 season. The average annual value of his next contract will surely exceed $20 million per, so that means Pujols will almost certainly fetch a deal in excess of $180 million over nine seasons. The whims of the market could alter those parameters, but that’s a fair guess at the minimum buy-in.

So you’ve got a slugger who’s in his 30s and already showing signs of decline but who’s also poised to fetch what will be one of the most lucrative contracts ever. Needless to say, the team that signs him will be assuming a great deal of risk.

The usual high-revenue suitors — i.e., the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels — almost certainly won’t be bidding since they are set at first base. As well, stalwarts like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets won’t be in the running thanks to owner incompetence (Mets) or malfeasance (Dodgers). So Pujols will likely fall to a club that may not be able to budget around him once he becomes a liability. To be sure, Pujols is a “brand-building” type of player who helps the bottom line over and above what he does on the field. Still, though, it’s lot of money and a lot of years for a player whose best days are almost certainly behind him.

In terms of historical comparables, the contract Mark Teixeira signed in advance of the 2009 season is probably strongest in terms of dollars and length (eight years, $180 million). The distinction, however, is that Teixeira was 28 when he inked his deal. And even that contract looks as though it could wind up being a burden.

Once age and contract dimensions are both considered, Alex Rodriguez’s 2007 mega-deal with the Yankees is perhaps most instructive. Pujols won’t match the $275 million lavished upon Rodriguez, but the contract length won’t be far off. Rodriguez was 32 in the first season under the contract in question, just as Pujols will be in 2012. Rodriguez in that first year put up strong numbers, but his descent since then, both in terms of productivity and durability, is undeniable. Since Rodriguez’s deal runs through 2017, things are going to get even uglier.

On this point, it’s worth noting that Pujols, as a first baseman, is already on the far left end of the defensive spectrum, so there’s no place to move him (in the National League, anyway) as he ages and loses mobility and athleticism. The other difference, of course, is that Rodriguez toils for the Yankees, who are uniquely positioned to withstand bad contracts. The team that signs Pujols — which almost certainly won’t be the Yankees or anyone else of their tax bracket — won’t be similarly blessed. If, say, the Cardinals are paying Pujols $20 million per (or more) for his age 36-40 seasons, that could be a serious drag on the team’s ability to build a competitive roster around him or treat him as a sunk cost.

A perfect lesson in this regard is the Minnesota Twins. Just a year-and-a-half ago they were lauded for signing hometown hero and reigning AL MVP Joe Mauer to an eight-year, $184 million extension. Mauer was just about to turn 27 at the time, and it looked like a no-brainer. However, he has been dogged by leg problems, and has hit a total of 12 home runs since signing the contract. There is already talk of moving him off catcher, and he will be paid $23 million per year through 2018 while occupying anywhere from 25 to 35 percent of the Twins’ payroll.

Overpaying at the back end of a contract in order to wring value out of the front end is nothing unusual. But considering Pujols’ age, performance trends, appeal on the free-agent market and the decidedly un-Yankee-like resources of the team that eventually signs him, Pujols’ next contract can be regarded as one of the riskiest we’ve ever seen.