2015 Pitcher Profiles: A – B

by
February 9, 2015

Fernando Abad

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 12/17/1985 | Team: Athletics | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 3 0 37 7.6 2.4 0.7 3.35 1.38 3.26 0.3 0.3
’14 2 4 0 57 8.0 2.4 0.6 1.57 0.85 3.25 1.9 0.6
’15 2 2 0 40 7.9 2.6 0.9 3.19 1.20 3.70 0.3 0.2

Profile: Fernando Abad appeared to post a strong 2014 season for several reasons. His 8.01 strikeouts per nine helped, as did his low 2.35 walks per nine. But his 1.57 ERA was more smoke and mirrors than true talent. Abad was incredibly fortunate in the batted ball department, his .211 batting average on balls in play tying for fourth-lowest among 142 qualified relievers. With a career .291 BABIP, it looks like a lot of his fly balls stayed in the yard and were caught by the Oakland A’s defense, owners of the ninth-best outfield Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games. Despite appearing in a career high (and nice) 69 games, Abad managed just nine holds and 13 shutdowns. If you’re in an extremely deep league which happens to count holds, Abad has some use. Outside of that, look elsewhere for your reliever stats. (David Wiers)

Quick Opinion: Probably the fourth or fifth man in the Oakland bullpen, Abad isn’t a terribly attractive fantasy option. He’ll get a few strikeouts and the occasional hold, but isn’t worth rostering in anything but the deepest of leagues.

Mike Adams

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 7/29/1978 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 4 0 25 8.3 4.0 1.8 3.96 1.36 5.25 0.1 -0.4
’14 2 1 0 18 10.1 3.9 0.5 2.89 1.29 2.86 0.1 0.3
’15 0 0 0 1 8.1 2.7 0.8 3.50 1.23 3.55 0.1 0.0

Profile: Mike Adams could end up in a late-inning role wherever he lands in 2015. His ability, when he’s healthy, isn’t much in question. His health, thanks mostly to a bum right shoulder that has been through surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome as well as two labrum tears and a torn rotator cuff since October 2012, is the concern. In fact, he missed most of the 2014 campaign because there was more fraying in his right shoulder labrum. No surgery this time, at least; he made three appearances for the Phillies in September. Adams’ ailments likely have something to do with his recent troubles with walks, but he doesn’t deserve a free pass at his age. Below-average velocity has forced him to become increasingly reliant upon breakers, too. He could sniff save opportunities in 2015, but they’d surely be byproducts of team attrition. The play – if there is one – would be in deep holds leagues, where he could eventually prove to have been a cheap reserve or to be a sneaky pickup. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Adams first has to prove that he’s healthy – and can stay that way for a meaningful length of time. If he does, then he might turn out to be a low-cost source of holds in deep leagues.

Jeremy Affeldt

Debut: 2002 |  BirthDate: 6/6/1979 | Team: Giants | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 5 0 33 5.6 4.5 0.5 3.74 1.31 4.44 0.1 -0.5
’14 4 2 0 55 6.7 2.3 0.2 2.28 1.10 2.86 1.2 0.4
’15 3 3 1 55 7.3 2.8 0.5 3.19 1.25 3.30 0.2 0.1

Profile: Jeremy Affeldt will be entering his seventh season with the Giants this year, and despite being 36 years old by midseason, the left-hander has shown little signs of decline over the past three years. Affeldt was actually better against right-handers this past season, but he’s better used consistently against left-handed hitters. He will likely continue to have an unremarkable strikeout rate, but his WHIP should be better than league average due his ability to limit hits and a good defense behind him. Affeldt is an extreme sinkerballer with a nasty curve, but odds are he’ll be the Giants second, and possibly third, option to pick up saves this year. In a mixed holds league, Affeldt is still not worth owning thanks to his strikeout rate, but he may be worth a flier in NL holds formats. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Affeldt is unlikely to see save opportunities this year, and thanks to his limited strikeouts, he’s not worth having unless his role changes.

Al Alburquerque

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 6/10/1986 | Team: Tigers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 3 0 49 12.9 6.2 0.9 4.59 1.49 3.72 -0.0 0.3
’14 3 1 1 57 9.9 3.3 1.1 2.51 1.17 3.78 1.4 0.2
’15 3 2 1 55 9.6 3.6 0.8 3.47 1.25 3.48 0.4 0.4

Profile: Occasionally, he’ll be quirky. The biggest thing keeping Al Alburquerque from being an elite reliever the last few years was the walks. A free pass for you, a free pass for me… The fantastic news? The righty setup man decided he was tired of going all Carlos Marmol on the Tigers bullpen and slashed his 16% walk rate in 2013 to 9% in 2014. The not-so-hot news? Plummeting along with his walk rate was his elite strikeout numbers, plunging from 32% to 27%. The two drops were still a net positive on Alburquerque’s bottom line, however, as his SIERA dropped under 3.00 for only the second time in his career. So what does this mean going forward? Well, his discipline stats are somewhat quixotic. His swinging strike rate only ticked down 1.5%, implying there’s room to rebound in the strikeout department. On the other hand, his first pitch strike percentage was actually the lowest of his career (and his zone percentage was not that much better). Maybe the Al Alburquerque we saw last year wasn’t materially that different after all. As in previous seasons, draft AlAl if you need whiffs out of a reliever lot, but the Tigers just don’t seem that interested in letting him close. With Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Joba Chamberlain still around to feed, I wouldn’t go on a hunger strike waiting for him to see the ninth if I were you. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: The reliever affectionately known as AlAl (partly because his name is too long for Twitter) saw offsetting decreases in his strikeout and walk rates in 2014, allowing a career high fraction of balls in play. Plate discipline metrics project both a bounce back in the punchouts and regression in free passes, so project him to what he has been — a middle reliever with good strikeout rates who may ding you in WHIP a bit.

Cody Allen

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 11/20/1988 | Team: Indians | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 6 1 2 70 11.3 3.3 0.9 2.43 1.25 2.99 1.4 1.0
’14 6 4 24 69 11.8 3.4 0.9 2.07 1.06 2.99 1.8 1.2
’15 4 3 33 65 10.6 3.0 0.9 2.90 1.15 3.19 0.8 0.6

Profile: Since entering the league in 2012, Cody Allen has been sneaky good. So sneaky, in fact, that the Indians thought John Axford was better suited than Allen to open the 2014 season as the closer. OK, so that probably had more to do with future arbitration costs than anything, but you get the picture. Here. Here’s a list of relievers with a higher strikeout rate than Allen over the last two seasons: Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Koji Uehara, David Robertson, Trevor Rosenthal. That’s it. You know these guys. Cody Allen is the surprise in that chain. After the Axford implosion seen from a mile away occurred almost immediately, Allen took over the closer job in Cleveland without ever officially being given the title and ran away with it. He saved 24 of 28 games with a 2.07 ERA with big boosts in his whiff and strikeout rates. Allen is still just 26 years old and likely has a long leash as the Indians closer, and could be a sneaky value pick as probably the next-best guy after the big-name elite closers go off the board. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: Allen has quietly been among the game’s better relievers over the last two seasons, and was awarded in June with the closers job he should have started the season with. Nothing changed in Allen’s performance once he was given the ninth inning, and he should be viewed as one of the top closer options after the big-name guys like Chapman, Kimbrel and Holland go off the board.

Henderson Alvarez

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 4/18/1990 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 6 0 102 5.0 2.4 0.2 3.59 1.14 3.18 1.7 1.9
’14 12 7 0 187 5.3 1.6 0.7 2.65 1.24 3.58 4.3 2.2
’15 10 10 0 163 5.6 2.1 0.7 3.90 1.30 3.70 1.3 1.7

Profile: Alvarez did more of the same in 2014: he killed worms. He did miss a few more bats, and even lowered his already low walk rate a little further, posting a top-ten walk rate among qualified starters. As with most ground-ballers, Alvarez does need a little help from his defense, but he also helped himself this season. His command improved tremendously, not only limiting free passes, but making his pitches harder to barrel. And to top all of that off, he began utilizing his change-up more. It didn’t generate a ton of empty swings, but it did produce a good ground-ball rate while giving hitters something else to think about. Alvarez’s velocity is something unteachable. His command has improved. And he’s grown as a pitcher. He might not post an ERA under three again, but he’s a seems to be a relatively safe bet at being around a 3.50. That’ll help. (Landon Jones)

Quick Opinion: Alvarez’s inability to miss bats matters. But he’s shown the ability to grow and keep his runs totals down the past two seasons. You could do worse when filling out the back end of your rotation.

Brett Anderson

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 2/1/1988 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 4 3 44 9.3 4.2 1.0 6.04 1.61 3.85 -0.7 0.3
’14 1 3 0 43 6.0 2.7 0.2 2.91 1.32 2.99 0.9 1.1
’15 6 6 0 96 7.1 3.0 0.7 3.70 1.30 3.59 0.7 0.9

Profile: Brett Anderson has almost 500 career big-league innings and he owns a 3.73 ERA (3.51 FIP) and yet he found himself in search of a new team in 2015 in large part because his body has almost never been healthy for an entire season. Even in eight starts as a member of the Colorado Rockies, Anderson had a lot of success — posting a 2.91 ERA (2.99 FIP), although his strikeout rate just barely cracked 16%. His repertoire remains mostly fastball/slider with an occasional curve, but his fastball is now south of 90 mph — and based on his results as a reliever in 2013, it’s entirely possible he finds himself in a Lefty One Out GuY role in 2015. It should be noted that Anderson will turn just 27 in February, so he’s still a pretty young buck and his track record always seems to tantalize fantasy owners looking for lightning in a bottle. Now with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Anderson appears to have an opportunity to start again, but given his health history, he’s probably better left to someone else to worry about. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: Brett Anderson’s body parts needing medical treatment throughout his career include his head, thumb, forearm, multiple fingers, neck, elbow, abdomen, ankle, foot, various locations of his back. He’s been on the 60-day disabled list five times before his 27th birthday. He’s the gold standard for injury proneness, and yet when he’s been able to toe the rubber, he’s typically had solid results. A flyer pick maybe, but don’t lean on him, because you’ll probably break him.

Chase Anderson

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 11/30/1987 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 9 7 0 114 8.3 3.1 1.3 4.01 1.37 4.22 0.9 0.8
’15 5 6 0 97 7.9 2.8 1.1 3.87 1.26 3.94 0.5 0.4

Profile: Chase Anderson owns: 1) A top-ten swinging strike rate on his changeup(s); 2) An above-average breaking ball by whiff rate (top 20 for starting pitchers by Arsenal Score); 3) An almost-exactly-average fastball by velocity and whiff rate; 4) A walk rate that has never once been average or worse with respect to the league. By strikeouts minus walks, he’s already been above-average in the major leagues even. He’s turning 27, was a ninth-round pick, and never really had the full respect of the prospect list-makers, so his success is not obvious or definite or anything. He just really seems like he has everything he needs to get there. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Chase Anderson has an elite changeup, and it’s not like he’s missing any pieces otherwise. Command, representative pitches other than his changeup, good enough velocity — give him a shot at at the back end of any fantasy squad in any league.

Chris Archer

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 9/26/1988 | Team: Rays | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 7 0 128 7.1 2.7 1.0 3.22 1.13 4.07 2.7 1.2
’14 10 9 0 194 8.0 3.3 0.6 3.33 1.28 3.39 2.4 3.1
’15 11 11 0 182 7.8 3.4 0.9 3.96 1.31 3.89 1.4 1.8

Profile: Chris Archer jumped a major hurdle in 2014, finally demonstrating an ability to get left-handed batters out regularly. He added a new pitch, a sinker, that kept the bat off the barrel of lefty bats, and the results showed up in his overall line. His 3.33 ERA over 194 innings is the stuff of an above-average starter. His numbers against lefties improved enough to mask an uptick in walks and in-play average. Simply put, he was a better pitcher in 2014. He cut his home run rate in half, allowing just 12 homers for the year. Even if regression drives that number up, he still represents a strong starter option, though the rebuilding Rays don’t make for the most attractive partner for those seeking wins. As he matures, Archer can better avoid the huge walk games that plagued him in 2014, when he issued four or more free passes seven times. The erudite hurler makes great use of the information available to him and is still young enough at 26 that an improvement in his command could be in the cards. Archer has the tools and mindset to take another step forward after his promising 2014 showed just what he can do. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: After making strides against left-handed batters in 2014, Chris Archer sets his sights on improving his walk rate to make 2015 the year he puts it all together to become a complete pitcher.

Jake Arrieta

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 3/6/1986 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 4 0 75 7.2 4.9 1.1 4.78 1.33 4.84 0.4 0.1
’14 10 5 0 156 9.6 2.4 0.3 2.53 0.99 2.26 4.7 4.9
’15 10 9 0 163 8.8 3.2 0.8 3.66 1.25 3.49 1.9 2.4

Profile: The former Orioles prospect nearly halved his walk rate when he changed uniforms, and he looks every bit the breakout star for which the Cubs rotation had been hunting. That being said, it is impossible to expect he can neatly reproduce his 2014 success in 2015. Steamer foresees his ERA increasing over a full run, and I struggle in seeing much different. From 2010 through 2013, Arrieta had a 5.28 ERA and 4.75 FIP over 409.2 IP. So it’s hard to trust 156.2 innings of 2.53 ERA / 2.26 FIP pitching. That being said, he did change his pitching approach — he’s throwing more sliders and throwing them in fastball counts more often — and was long expected to break out (albeit years ago). A late bloomer is still a bloomer, and if his light injury history holds, he should be a solid, maybe great, number two or three starter for Chicago. (Bradley Woodrum) 

Quick Opinion: Don’t expect Arrieta to repeat 2014. If he does, awesome. If he regress a little (think 3.50 ERA area), then okay, good. But just remember, it was only two seasons ago that he looked quite kaput.

Bronson Arroyo

Debut: 2000 |  BirthDate: 2/24/1977 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 14 12 0 202 5.5 1.5 1.4 3.79 1.15 4.49 2.7 0.8
’14 7 4 0 86 4.9 2.0 1.0 4.08 1.29 4.32 0.9 0.5
’15 1 1 0 10 5.2 1.9 1.2 4.44 1.31 4.43 0.1 0.0

Profile: After going his whole career without being deactivated due to injury, Bronson Arroyo was placed on the disabled list during the middle of the 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Arroyo won’t have a chance to pitch until the second half of 2015, and even then he’s not worth adding. (Zach Sanders)

Scott Atchison

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 3/29/1976 | Team: Indians | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 3 0 45 5.6 2.4 0.8 4.37 1.26 3.75 -0.9 -0.1
’14 6 0 2 72 6.1 1.8 0.5 2.75 1.03 3.08 1.3 0.8
’15 3 3 2 55 6.6 2.0 0.8 3.70 1.25 3.55 0.1 0.2

Profile: Scott Atchison experienced something of a career resurgence in 2014 as a 38-year-old coming off a season made up of injuries and ineffectiveness. That just added another twist to the tale of Atchison’s career, which has been a unique one. Atchison has experienced a late MLB debut, two seasons in Japan, a return to the MLB at age 34 met with a bad season, two good seasons, another bad one and then a revival at 38 that was rewarded with a $1 million extension by the Indians front office in August. He is an interesting fellow. He throws an 88 mph cutter/slider and a big, looping 12-6 curveball, both of which get a ton of ground balls. As the season went on, Francona began to trust Atchison in higher leverage situations, and occasionally let him work multiple innings, but he’s still behind closer Cody Allen and set-up man Bryan Shaw for saves in the Indians bullpen. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: Atchison has had an interesting career, and a good 2014, but he’s more of a third or fourth option the Indians bullpen. Heading into his age-39 season, he’s good for maybe 10 holds — given his elbow doesn’t act up again — and might fall into a save or two. I’m sure you can find better.

John Axford

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 4/1/1983 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 7 0 65 9.0 3.6 1.4 4.02 1.52 4.34 -0.2 -0.4
’14 2 4 10 54 10.4 5.9 1.0 3.95 1.45 4.34 -0.1 -0.5
’15 1 1 0 25 9.1 3.8 0.8 3.86 1.34 3.70 0.1 0.2

Profile: Years ago, John Axford was a dominant closer with a dynamite moustache and an 80-grade Twitter account. Then, he became a moustache and a Twitter handle. Now, even the moustache is gone. As of this writing, Axford is still a free agent, as he’s already burned four teams in the last two seasons, and the remaining 26 are understandably skeptical. Walks and homers have rendered Axford’s electric fastball and 12-6 curve meaningless, and wherever he does latch on, it won’t be in a meaningful role. Axford’s days in the ninth inning are likely numbered. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: 10 solid innings for the Cardinals at the end of the 2013 season ushered some hope for Axford heading into 2014. Heading into 2015, all hope is lost. If Axford even breaks camp with a major league team this year, it will be in a middle relief role, and it’s hard to see a scenario where he ends up closing out games again.

Burke Badenhop

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 2/8/1983 | Team: Reds | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 3 1 62 6.1 1.7 0.9 3.47 1.19 3.53 -0.3 0.3
’14 0 3 1 70 5.1 2.4 0.1 2.29 1.26 3.08 1.8 1.0
’15 1 2 0 30 6.4 2.2 0.7 3.39 1.24 3.58 0.1 0.1

Profile: Burke Badenhop’s ERA might have fallen in 2014 but by SIERA, he’s been the same pitcher since 2009. In his first season in Boston, the righty actually saw both his strikeout and walk rates head the wrong direction slightly, however, a tiny 2.3 home run per fly ball rate helped keep the number of runs crossing the plane in check. With a career-high 3.2 grounder-to-fly ratio last year, Badenhop has the potential to be an interesting middle-reliever to bring in with runners on base, however, with only a 3.3% swinging strike rate he’s at the mercy of the batted ball luck gods. A low-leverage sinkerballer who lacks an elite out pitch? That doesn’t really sound like a recipe for fantasy success, even in leagues where holds get you a couple more points. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: Badenhop’s season in Boston was successful, although a large portion of that success was due to an unsustainable home run rate. The sinkerballer put up career marks in the groundball department, though, so he could continue to be useful in real life applications. Real life doesn’t equal fantasy, however.

Pedro Baez

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 3/11/1988 | Team: Dodgers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 0 0 0 24 6.8 1.9 1.1 2.62 0.88 3.88 0.3 0.0
’15 1 1 0 25 7.7 2.9 1.0 3.61 1.26 4.01 -0.0 -0.1

Profile: Baez is a converted third baseman who began his pitching career at the start of the 2013 season, so the fact that he contributed 25 solid innings to the Dodgers bullpen in 2014 is quite impressive. He sports a mid- to high-90s fourseam fastball and a high-80s slider that were both plus pitches, per results. His batting average on balls in play was very low –– unsustainably low –– so he’s due some regression there, but his batted ball profile suggests that it wasn’t all luck. His 14.7% line drive rate and 21.2% infield fly rate were both much better than league average, even if in a small sample size, and indicate he induced plenty of weak contact. The presence of Brian Wilson and the off-season acquisition of Joel Peralta might push Baez down the depth chart to start the season, but if he can leverage his good control and velocity into a few more strikeouts while continuing to get weak contact, he could leapfrog both in short order to be the number one set-up man. (Robert J. Baumann)

Quick Opinion: Kenley Jansen is probably as entrenched in his role as a closer can be, but if your league uses holds, keep an eye on the Dodgers’ bullpen situation in the early going; Baez could be a good set-up man if Brian Wilson and/or Joel Peralta falter.

Homer Bailey

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 5/3/1986 | Team: Reds | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 11 12 0 209 8.6 2.3 0.9 3.49 1.12 3.31 3.5 3.7
’14 9 5 0 145 7.7 2.8 1.0 3.71 1.23 3.93 2.2 1.3
’15 10 10 0 173 8.1 2.5 1.0 3.70 1.21 3.74 1.9 2.0

Profile: Sometimes the pieces don’t quite fit together. Homer Bailey looks the part of a number two starter in a good big league rotation. He’s also paid this way, after he signed a long extension to stay in Cincinnati. After his 2013 breakout, Bailey appeared on his way to realizing this potential, notching a career-best ERA on the back of an improved strikeout rate while allowing fewer home runs. Then 2014 came around and Bailey was ineffective and injured, missing time with a bulging disk in his neck before undergoing surgery on his throwing elbow. His “ineffectiveness” looked a lot more like the Bailey of old, as the gains he made in his strikeout rate slipped away and he issued too many free passes. But there is hope in Bailey’s 2014 season. Outside of a disastrous April (when he allowed seven of his 16 homers), he was quite good until losing his season to injury. His velocity never wavered, still averaging more than 94 miles per hour on his four seam fastball. He threw his slider more than ever and it remained an effective pitch, as batters hit just .203 against it with five home runs. He can be great again, but first he must be healthy. The onus, for now, is on Bailey to prove he’s healthy and the changes in his game are real. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: Don’t let one bad month scare you away, Homer Bailey can still be the solid number two starter we saw in 2013.

Scott Baker

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 9/19/1981 | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 15 3.6 2.4 1.8 3.60 0.87 5.65 0.3 -0.1
’14 3 4 0 80 6.1 1.6 1.7 5.47 1.19 4.78 -0.3 0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 6.2 2.4 1.7 4.67 1.35 5.11 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: Healthy for most of a season for the first time since 2010, Scott Baker performed about as expected for the Texas Rangers. Baker was stingy with walks, allowed far too many homers, and struck out two batters every three innings. He isn’t durable enough to start for a full season, but he can serve as an excellent spot starter for a team in a reasonable ballpark. There’s no need to spend anything to get Baker in full season leagues, but if you’re a daily fantasy player or like to stream pitchers, he can be interesting when he’s starting. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Baker is unlikely to stay healthy enough to hold down a rotation spot, but he’s an interesting spot starter in some ballparks.

Grant Balfour

Debut: 2001 |  BirthDate: 12/30/1977 | Team: Rays | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 3 38 62 10.3 3.9 1.0 2.59 1.20 3.49 1.5 0.6
’14 2 6 12 62 8.2 5.9 0.4 4.91 1.44 3.95 -0.7 -0.0
’15 3 3 4 55 8.2 3.9 0.9 3.75 1.33 4.01 0.0 -0.1

Profile: One wonders what kind of season it would have been had Grant Balfour’s shoulder checked out a little better with the Baltimore Orioles training staff. After his contract was nixed by the white lab coats in Baltimore, Balfour took act and ostensibly healthy appendages back to the Tampa Bay Rays and summarily coughed up a pretty plumb closing gig. He was one of the better closers in baseball with the Oakland Athletics for two seasons, but he entered June of 2014 a mess of control problems and perhaps a little rotten luck, shackled by an era over six, ending games with lots of NSFW potty talk. He threw better in the second half, holding opponents to a .220/.341/.349 slash line in 30 innings from July to the end of the season, but his control problems hamstrung him all season long and he was never able to ultimately right the ship. Although they’re on the hook for $7 million, it’s unlikely the Rays will let Balfour close with Jake McGee’s breakout performance. It’s possible Balfour could find some value in holds leagues, but that’s probably being optimistic. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: After four dominant seasons of relief, Grant Balfour had an ironclad grasp of a closing gig and most prognosticators predicted a productive year. By mid-June, he had no defined role, a bloated ERA, his velocity was absent as was his control of the strike zone. Balfour enters 2015 with an albatross contract buried on the closing depth chart. 

Matt Barnes

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 6/17/1990 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 0 0 0 9 8.0 2.0 1.0 4.00 1.44 3.47 0.0 0.1
’15 1 1 0 25 7.8 3.0 1.0 3.77 1.29 3.95 0.2 0.1

Profile: Barnes’s fantasy value comes down to his ability to throw strikes. In the minors he was rated as having an above average fastball and average change and curve. Those pitches should work for a starter, but his lack of command won’t. He had a combined minor league walk rate of 3.1 walks per nine and that rate will likely only get worse in the majors. Besides the high number of walks, a decline in strikeouts worry me. In 2013 in Double-A, he struck out 11.3 per nine in 24 starts. That rate dropped to 7.3 K/9 over 22 Triple-A starts in 2014. Again, those rates could drop even further in the majors. With the low strikeout and high walk numbers, he is probably a fourth to fifth starter at best. With the addition of several new starters to Boston, it looks like Barnes is definitely on the outside looking in for starting spot. He will find himself in Triple-A to start 2015 — or at the back end of the Red Sox bullpen. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Matt Barnes is going to need to improve his walk and/or strikeout rate to break into a crowded Red Sox starting rotation.

Anthony Bass

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 11/1/1987 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 42 6.6 4.3 0.9 5.36 1.69 4.24 -0.6 -0.3
’14 1 1 2 27 2.3 2.3 2.0 6.33 1.44 6.50 -0.9 -1.0
’15 0 0 0 1 6.5 2.6 1.0 4.19 1.33 4.12 -0.1 -0.0

Profile: Anthony Bass was a lukewarm pickup early in 2014 after garnering a few saves for the floundering Houston Astros. Even lukewarm might be overstating it a tad, but he certainly was owned in a few leagues. Unfortunately for owners (and Bass himself), there was little success to sustain. In fact, the lefty posted dueling (and cringe-inducing) 5.9% marks for both his strikeout and walk rates. While the lefty’s velocity was up there (94 mph), his 6.7% swinging strike rate paints the picture of a guy who isn’t fooling anyone. Making matters worse, it wasn’t just the fastball that he couldn’t sneak by hitters — both his cutter and slider (which he threw a combined 60% of the time) had vastly subpar whiff rates. Opting out of his deal with Houston, he has now ended up at the launching pad in Arlington, where he’ll function as middle relief depth for the bullpen-starved Rangers. In the right situation (where only lefties rule the world) it’s not out of the question he’ll produce a touch of value in holds leagues, but it’s tough to envision him peaking at ownership rates north of a percent or two anywhere. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: It’s rare that a pitcher who offers up a 1/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio racks up multiple saves in a season, but that’s exactly what Anthony Bass did in 2014. Now on the Rangers, he’ll likely serve as something similar to a Lefty One Out GuY in the middle innings. There’s really no reason to go fishing for Bass on draft day.

Antonio Bastardo

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 9/21/1985 | Team: Pirates | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 2 2 42 9.9 4.4 0.4 2.32 1.27 3.00 1.0 0.5
’14 5 7 0 64 11.4 4.8 0.6 3.94 1.20 3.10 -0.2 0.7
’15 3 3 2 65 9.7 3.6 0.9 3.14 1.23 3.61 0.4 0.1

Profile: As a reliever, Antonio Bastardo has fanned more than 30% of the hitters he’s faced in his career, including 29.9% of them last year. The southpaw’s good fastball-slider mix, which includes a very effective changeup (although it’s not oft-used, which probably helps the underdeveloped pitch be effective), has allowed him to set down right-handed batters on strikes nearly as often as he has left-handed hitters. He’s also been adept at inducing pop-ups (about 6% of batted balls against him, lifetime, which is almost twice the league average). Poor control of his secondary stuff has proved to be his undoing, though, primarily evidenced in his rate of free passes issued (lifetime out of the bullpen 11.8%, 12.6% in 2014). Bastardo, 29, probably peaked in terms strikeouts in 2012 (36.6%), too. He was occasionally a candidate for saves when his team’s closer was unavailable in Philadelphia, but that’s much less likely to be the case after his in-state move this past offseason because of his new club’s depth. On the plus side, the Pirates may have a little luck unlocking more of the sometimes nasty lefty’s potential and make him of use eventually … in deep NL-only leagues. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Platoon splits haven’t been much of a problem for Bastardo, who has fanned batters about 30% of the time in his career, but pretty bad control of his complementary stuff has long held him back. The move to Pittsburgh may be beneficial if there’s to be any more development, but it also likely much precludes him from serving in a fantasy-friendly role in 2015.

Trevor Bauer

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 1/17/1991 | Team: Indians | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 2 0 17 5.8 8.5 1.6 5.29 1.82 7.05 -0.1 -0.3
’14 5 8 0 153 8.4 3.5 0.9 4.18 1.38 4.01 1.1 1.3
’15 10 12 0 182 8.1 4.1 1.2 4.63 1.43 4.60 0.3 0.4

Profile: Here on FanGraphs, we love the projection systems. There’s no better way to project future performance, and so we use them often. But they’re not always perfect, and they’re not meant to be taken as gospel. The systems miss badly on some players, and some guys are just hard to project. Trevor Bauer is one of those guys where I will be ignoring the projections. By Steamer, Bauer is projected to be essentially replacement-level in 2015 after a solid first full year in 2014. It’s likely because his first eight starts went as terrible as humanly possible. Bauer walked almost everybody, and the ones he didn’t walk took him deep. These impossibly bad results lead to a nasty projection, but what the projections don’t know is that Bauer was a top prospect, that he studies the science of pitching perhaps more than any player in the league, and that he completely re-worked his mechanics, which are now much more efficient and allow him to increase his velocity even after 100 pitches. Sure, Bauer has his warts. The walk rate is still ugly and he seems to have a penchant for hard contact. But the strikeout rate is also still lower than people expected and he’s still just 24 years old. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: Don’t put too much stock in the projections for Trevor Bauer’s 2015. Instead, make your own. Everybody’s got their own opinion on Bauer — he’s a divisive player. But legitimate improvements to his mechanics in 2014 lead me to believe it’s just as likely he improves upon his 2014 numbers, rather than regress.

Pedro Beato

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 10/27/1986 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 1 0 10 4.5 1.8 0.9 3.60 1.40 4.25 0.0 0.0
’14 0 0 0 4 6.2 6.2 0.0 0.00 1.38 3.82 0.1 0.0
’15 1 1 0 20 7.4 3.4 1.2 4.09 1.34 4.41 -0.1 -0.1

Profile: Beato spent most of 2014 in Triple-A Gwinnett. He offers no upside and no value to any fantasy team next year, even the deepest of formats. (Ben Duronio)

Josh Beckett

Debut: 2001 |  BirthDate: 5/15/1980 | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 5 0 43 8.5 3.1 1.7 5.19 1.50 4.66 -0.7 -0.1
’14 6 6 0 115 8.3 3.0 1.3 2.88 1.17 4.33 2.3 0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 8.0 2.9 1.0 3.88 1.25 3.93 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: Coming off a disastrous 2013 in which he’d made eight lousy starts and then didn’t pitch after May 13 thanks to thoracic outlet syndrome and ensuing surgery, very little was expected of Josh Beckett in 2014. Instead, he was one of the first half’s biggest surprises, especially when catcher A.J. Ellis advised him to utilize his still-outstanding curveball more often. While Beckett’s 2.88 ERA wasn’t entirely deserved — both his batting average on balls in play and left on base percentage were easily out of line with his career norms — he looked like a useful starter for the first time in years, even throwing his first no-hitter on May 25. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on you look at it), Beckett bowed out just as the regression demons were demanding their payment, as a left hip injury contributed to his failure to go five innings in any of his last three starts, and ended his year after a final game on August 3. Beckett’s torn left hip labrum required surgery, but rather than undergo the rehab required to get back to the bigs, he called it a career in October at 34. (Mike Petriello)

Quick Opinion: After parts of 14 seasons in the big leagues and two memorable World Series runs, a serious hip injury forced Josh Beckett into retirement following the season.

Erik Bedard

Debut: 2002 |  BirthDate: 3/5/1979 | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 12 1 151 8.2 4.5 1.1 4.59 1.48 4.38 0.6 1.4
’14 4 6 0 75 7.6 3.4 1.2 4.76 1.49 4.39 -0.5 0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 7.1 3.7 1.2 4.33 1.38 4.57 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: What can you say about Erik Bedard that hasn’t been said about a dozen other replacement level lefties at one point or another? Maybe you just have to tell his story to put him in context. Bedard last pitched for the Rays before they released him August. He didn’t catch on with another club but still holds the ever-enticing promise of southpawedness. There might be hope for Bedard yet as a lefty-only reliever though his numbers against left-handed batters over the last two years are not promising. Somebody will dial Bedard up to make some emergency starts for them at some point, and when they do, there’s a 36-year old pitcher with his fastball velocity in steady decline (just 87.9 mph in 2014, with his strikeout rate going along with it, down below average at 18.7%) ready and willing. In the right situation, with the right defense and sizable park behind him? Well, The Tempest tells us “misery acquaints a man with strange bed-fellows.” Avoid misery at all costs. Bedard is a sixth starter through and through. Treat him as such. Stream with extreme caution… if at all. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: His best years behind him, Erik Bedard persists as a spot-starter option still looking for work.

Cam Bedrosian

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 10/2/1991 | Team: Angels | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 0 1 0 19 9.3 5.6 0.9 6.52 1.81 4.27 -0.8 -0.0
’15 2 2 0 35 9.5 4.1 0.8 3.50 1.30 3.70 0.1 0.1

Profile: A 2010 first round pick, Bedrosian has posted big strikeout rates at Single-A and Double-A in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Unfortunately, he struggled with his control during his first taste of Major League action and will likely battle for a bullpen spot during Spring Training. (Mike Podhorzer)

Ronald Belisario

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 12/31/1982 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 7 1 68 6.5 3.7 0.4 3.97 1.47 3.64 -0.5 0.0
’14 4 8 8 66 6.4 2.4 0.5 5.56 1.45 3.54 -1.6 0.5
’15 0 0 0 1 6.8 3.0 0.7 3.94 1.34 3.79 0.1 0.0

Profile: Despite his 5.56 ERA, there’s a lot of evidence Belisario was better in 2014 than he was in 2013. Most of his peripherals were identical, and he even cut his walk rate to a career-low 6.2%. So, what the heck happened? Belisario was abysmal with men on. His left on base rate was just 57.7% (70% is average). That figure ranked last among all relievers with at least 60 innings pitched. Belisario has never had problems with men on base in the past, so it’s reasonable to think his luck will turn in 2015. The White Sox, however, aren’t so sure. The club designated Belisario for assignment in November. Despite his poor ERA, Belisario did have a 3.54 FIP, so there’s a chance he winds up being a nice buy-low candidate for the Blue Jays. (Chris Cwik)

Quick Opinion: Belisario’s stint in Chicago didn’t go as planned even though his peripherals remained solid. With a little luck, he could be a savvy buy-low reliever for the Blue Jays, although he probably won’t close again unless disaster strikes.

Matt Belisle

Debut: 2003 |  BirthDate: 6/6/1980 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 7 0 73 7.6 1.8 0.7 4.32 1.25 3.03 0.3 1.4
’14 4 7 0 64 6.0 2.6 0.7 4.87 1.44 3.74 -0.0 0.5
’15 2 2 0 40 6.8 2.3 0.8 3.56 1.24 3.57 0.1 0.0

Profile: There are plenty of relievers who would be perfectly happy to take Matt Belisle’s 2014 season. It wasn’t Belisle’s best, but at this stage he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. He wasn’t exactly clutch last season, but outside of a drop in his reach rate, there aren’t a lot of long-term warning signs. His velocity and contact percentages were in range with his more successful seasons. Of course, with his move to a team that has an even more established closer situation than the one he left, there is even less optimism about Belisle getting save opportunities — and there wasn’t much optimism before. What should change though, is his holds output. Belisle fell out of favor with Rockies manager Walt Weiss after April, and as such only recorded six holds for the season. In St. Louis, he should be part of a set-up combo with Jordan Walden and Randy Choate, and as such should get more opportunities for holds. The fact that the Cardinals will be better than the Rockies were should help too. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: Matt Belisle is never going to win your fantasy league for you, but he also isn’t as bad as he seemed last year, and if you need a sneaky source for holds, he could be valuable.

Jeff Beliveau

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 1/17/1987 | Team: Rays | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 0 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.00 3.00 7.55 0.0 -0.0
’14 0 0 1 24 10.5 2.6 0.4 2.62 1.08 2.47 0.5 0.5
’15 2 2 0 35 9.1 3.5 0.8 3.26 1.25 3.60 0.2 0.1

Profile: Jeff figures to slot into the 2015 Rays bullpen as the lone lefty — aside from recovering closer Jake McGee, who has shown a reverse platoon split so far. Normally, that would signal Jeff will be the resident Lefty One Out GuY, but he had some filthy numbers in Triple-A during both the 2013 and 2014 seasons. The Rays may test the waters a little and see if he can flash that mid-30% strikeout rate against both hands in the majors. In his 30 major league games in 2014, he pitched slightly better against righties than lefties, albeit he faced an almost even 50/50 split of lefties and righties, meaning he was used primarily in advantageous spots of the lineup. Since he is out of options and has done no wrong in two calendar years, Beliveau and his rising fastball should make a good late-draft reliever surprise. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Beliveau may surprise some fantasy owners in 2015. His Triple-A numbers — where he saw action against both hands — were outrageous. And he brought that success to the Rays bullpen late in the season. Consider Beliveau if you’re looking to round out your bullpen with some surprise talent, without necessarily a guarantee for lots of innings.

Heath Bell

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 9/29/1977 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 2 15 65 9.9 2.2 1.6 4.11 1.37 4.10 0.2 -0.0
’14 1 1 0 17 6.2 4.2 0.5 7.27 1.85 4.57 -0.7 -0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 7.2 3.1 0.9 3.83 1.31 3.94 0.1 -0.0

Profile: Even the miracle-working Rays didn’t have enough pixie dust for this lost boy in 2014. Heath Bell should probably be in search of a new wrinkle if he wants another major league job. So far, a splitter (or split-change?) which he tried last season isn’t it. The right-hander also struggled to achieve good velocity in his roughly quarter of a campaign, but he’s dealt with similar stretches, and the sample is too small to assume that he’s lost his oomph for good. Something is likely wrong mechanically; Bell has incrementally become more of an over-the-top hurler, and his location has been awful. He’s basically thrown a lot of batting practice in the past three years. He probably has to change something significant and then fight his way onto a roster to sniff fantasy value again. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Bell needs to make major changes to recover some velocity and command – and thus, see some noteworthy regression toward career norms in his relevant rates. Until news of the former happens and there’s verification because of the latter, he’s a long way from fantasy relevance.

Joaquin Benoit

Debut: 2001 |  BirthDate: 7/26/1977 | Team: Padres | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 1 24 67 9.8 3.0 0.7 2.01 1.03 2.87 2.6 1.6
’14 4 2 11 54 10.6 2.3 0.5 1.49 0.77 2.32 2.0 1.2
’15 4 3 34 65 10.6 2.5 0.8 2.58 1.08 2.85 0.8 0.6

Profile: Echoing last year’s profile: How does Benoit keep getting better with age? Sunny weather helps, I guess? After being a world-beater in 2013, Benoit upped the bar in 2014, pitching extremely well as a set-up man before eventually taking over San Diego’s closer role once Huston Street was traded. On top of missing more bats, Benoit’s in a park that fits his pitching style, which involves giving up a lot of fly balls. His home run per fly ball ratio dropped to a staggering 4.8%, which seems dues for regression, but maybe not a ton considering his comfortable surroundings. Benoit’s season was very impressive, but his improving change-up might have been the best part. After producing swinging strike rates of 27% and 25% in 2012 and 2013, respectively, he upped the ante, generating a 32% mark this season. Now left-handed batters have something else to worry about — as if 95 mph heat and a devastating slider wasn’t mean enough. Benoit has seemingly found the fountain of youth, and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he seems likely to be one baseball’s best relievers once more. (Landon Jones)

Quick Opinion: Considering San Diego’s place on the win curve, a midseason trade always seem like it could be an issue. Given his improving repertoire, though, and the friendly park, Benoit seems likely to come cheaper and maybe perform better than the names around him.

Christian Bergman

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 5/4/1988 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 3 5 0 54 5.1 1.6 1.5 5.93 1.55 4.74 -0.2 0.4
’15 1 1 0 19 5.2 2.3 1.7 5.36 1.45 5.26 0.0 0.0

Profile: A former 24th round draft pick, Christian Bergman has proven to be excellent value for the Rockies despite a so-so rookie campaign. Everything from here on out will be icing on the cake from young hurler, whose average stuff plays up thanks to his above-average control. The 26-year-old has proven to be quite durable throughout his professional career but he doesn’t strike out many batters and his fly-ball ways suggest he’s not the ideally suited to pitching half his games in Colorado. Indeed, his small-sample sized stats from 2014 (54.2 innings) bear this out: (.338/.367/.600 allowed at home versus .281/317/.490 on the road). To date (late December), the Rockies have yet to make improvements to the starting staff, so Bergman has a shot at opening 2015 in the big league rotation, even as top pitching prospects Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray are preparing to knock down the door. As a result, there is no reason to buy on the sophomore hurler, even in deep NL-only leagues. (Marc Hulet)

Quick Opinion: (Average stuff + fly-ball tendencies) x Colorado = AVOID.

Dellin Betances

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 3/23/1988 | Team: Yankees | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 5 18.0 3.6 1.8 10.80 2.20 2.85 -0.2 0.1
’14 5 0 1 90 13.5 2.4 0.4 1.40 0.78 1.64 3.8 3.2
’15 4 3 24 65 11.6 3.7 0.7 2.73 1.13 2.96 1.1 0.9

Profile: Betances is a lesson in why teams rarely give up on promising arms. The monster-sized power arm went from top starting pitching prospect to wipeout (6.44 ERA in the upper minors in 2012) to striking out 135 batters in 90 big league innings as a reliever — all in the span of five seasons. Now, with the retirement of Mariano Rivera and the loss of David Robertson to free agency, Betances stands to inherit the role of closer in the Bronx. Despite his amazing story from 2014, the now-26-year-old hurler has only displayed the otherworldly command and control for one season so he’s by no means a sure thing entering 2015 — which makes him a risky top reliever target for 2015. Given his high profile and gaudy numbers, Betances could very easily be overvalued in fantasy drafts, suggesting your money (in auction drafts) or high draft slots (in non-auction drafts) could be better utilized elsewhere on “safer” players. With that said, he also has a chance to be the most valuable reliever in baseball. Maddening. (Marc Hulet)

Quick Opinion: Betances has a very small history of success but, when he’s been good, he’s been downright scary. He carries some risk — due to years of struggling with his command and control — but he also has the talent to be the top reliever in fantasy baseball.

Chad Billingsley

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 7/29/1984 | Team: Phillies | Position: P
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 0 0 12 4.5 3.8 0.8 3.00 1.42 4.38 0.3 0.0
’15 0 0 0 1 7.1 2.8 1.0 4.06 1.29 4.07 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: Once a solidly underrated mid-rotation starter, Chad Billingsley’s return from 2013 Tommy John surgery was derailed when hurt his arm again during rehab and underwent flexor tendon surgery. Having made only two MLB appearances in the last two seasons and with arm-related time on the disabled list in each of the last three, he’s an interesting buy-low candidate, but nothing more until he proves he can stay healthy. (Mike Petriello)

Vic Black

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 5/23/1988 | Team: Mets | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 0 1 17 7.9 3.2 0.5 3.71 1.35 3.46 0.1 0.1
’14 2 3 0 34 8.3 4.9 0.5 2.60 1.30 3.77 0.4 -0.0
’15 3 3 1 55 9.2 4.3 0.9 3.79 1.35 3.90 -0.2 -0.1

Profile: Vic Black has as much strikeout potential as anyone in the Mets’ bullpen, which is represented best by his 34+% strikeout rates in the upper minors. Last year in the majors, Vic Black had the sixth-best curveball. It induced more whiffs than Craig Kimbrel’s curve by a percent and only a handful of curves induced as many grounders. If he is truly over his shoulder issue, he could approach top 20 velocity, which would help ground his batting average on balls in play, homerun-to-fly ratio and left-on-base rates again. However, Black’s 19% infield fly rate, 82.8% left-on-base rate and .230 BABIP against lefties may have hidden some platoon issues including a 15.5% walk rate, 25% line drive rate and a HR/FB ratio against lefties that was six times his rate against righties. His sinker against lefties is not effective. (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: Black says he is over his rotator cuff injury. If true, the Mets have another devastating reliever against right-handed hitters. The only chance his ERA hovers around 2.60 again is if he sees lefties less or swaps out his sinker for more curves when he does see them.

Jerry Blevins

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 9/6/1983 | Team: Nationals | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 0 0 60 7.8 2.5 1.0 3.15 1.07 3.88 0.6 0.4
’14 2 3 0 57 10.4 3.6 0.5 4.87 1.24 2.77 -0.5 0.7
’15 2 2 1 45 9.0 2.9 0.9 3.12 1.20 3.56 0.4 0.1

Profile: Jerry Blevins is death on left-handed hitters. In 32 1/3 innings against southpaws, Blevins allowed 17 hits and notched 40 strikeouts. Righties, however, turned into an issue. Right-handers hit .295 against Blevins last year. And while he’s shown the ability to limit righties more in the past, he’s always been a little worse against them over his career. Also, don’t be fooled by Blevins’ 4.87 ERA, his peripherals suggest that figure may have been fluky. That figure is also certain to fall if Blevins has his opportunities against righties limited in 2015. As of right now, he’s a specialist/set-up man for Drew Storen. His struggles against righties could limit his holds, though he should still put up decent numbers and will be used as a high-leverage option. (Chris Cwik)

Quick Opinion: Blevins can destroy tough lefties, and should pitch in high-leverage situations for Washington. He’s not likely to pick up many saves, though.

Lisalverto Bonilla

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 6/18/1990 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 3 0 0 20 7.4 5.2 0.9 3.05 1.21 4.63 0.6 0.2
’15 1 1 0 20 9.0 3.7 1.0 3.74 1.31 3.86 0.1 0.1

Profile: Usually, when you describe a one-pitch pitcher, you’re talking about a guy with a great sinker or a big four-seamer. Maybe a knuckleball. It’s hard to make a living in the big leagues when your best pitch is something other than an every-down running back. Then you have Lisalverto Bonilla, who managed to get a whiff on one of every four changeups he threw last year despite issues with the rest of his oeuvre. If he’d thrown the change more with the same results, he would have qualified and shown up right behind Stephen Strasburg in whiff percentage on that pitch. His curve did okay last year too (18% whiffs), so it’s not quite time to call hime a one-pitch guy. But he only threw 73 changeups and 44 curves, and his fastball was below-average in velocity, and in results (5% whiff rate). And his track record suggests poor command is a reality for him. And he’s not even currently listed on our depth charts for the Rangers’ starting rotation. So don’t draft Bonilla. Don’t even think too hard about him. Just come look at this when he’s up for a spot-start in Oakland and you’re thinking about starting him. Then, I hope you give him a ride in your deep league. If only so that you sit down and watch some of his game and enjoy a changeup or two along the way. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: There’s a chance Lisalverto Bonilla only has a changeup on his side, and bad command and below-average fastball velocity working against him. A good chance. So just stash the name away and remember to read this if he gets a spot start or a two-week run in some friendly parks in 2015.

Brad Boxberger

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 5/27/1988 | Team: Rays | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 1 22 9.8 5.3 1.2 2.86 1.45 4.41 0.1 -0.2
’14 5 2 2 64 14.5 2.8 1.3 2.37 0.84 2.84 1.7 0.9
’15 4 3 9 65 11.6 3.2 0.7 2.49 1.08 2.77 1.1 0.8

Profile: When the Rays traded for Brad Boxberger in January, they knew what they had. A hard-throwing pitcher with great strikeout numbers in the minor leagues and only the foggiest notion of the strike zone. It was a flyer and not an uncommon one — except this one worked out. Boxberger discovered the strike zone in a real way, posting huge strikeout numbers but managing to avoid both walks and home runs. His fastball/changeup combination rendered lefties hopeless against him and his new-found ability to fill the strike zone kept righties at bay as well. With Jake McGee set to miss the start of the season, Boxberger might be the guy to fill in at closer, picking up saves and pitching in huge spots. There is no telling how new Rays manager Kevin Cash might run his bullpen, but Boxberger is a name he’s sure to rely on. Even if his strikeout rate regresses, there are enough tangible changes in Boxberger’s approach to the game (no longer pitching out of the windup and a different release point) to suggest 2015 holds the promise of more strikeouts and potentially more saves for the Rays latest relief ace. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: Brad Boxberger got it all right in 2014. Are the adjustments that produced nearly 15 strikeouts per nine innings here to stay?

Brad Brach

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 4/12/1986 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 0 0 31 9.0 5.5 0.9 3.19 1.77 4.14 -0.2 -0.2
’14 7 1 0 62 7.8 3.6 0.9 3.18 1.17 3.90 0.6 0.2
’15 2 2 1 45 8.6 3.3 1.2 3.66 1.26 4.13 0.2 0.1

Profile: Brach put together a respectable season working the earlier and lower-leverage innings in the Orioles bullpen in 2014. It appears as though he’s ticketed for a similar role in 2015, with limited chance of finding his way into save opportunities given where he’ll land on the bullpen totem pole. Brach doesn’t have discernible splits, but does struggle to throw strikes to left-handed hitters. He’s also fly ball heavy in a park that doesn’t favor that kind of approach, especially to left-handed hitters. As it appears right now, Brach is closer to being an odd man out of this bullpen than he is to throwing high-leverage innings, making him a non-entity in fantasy drafts this spring. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: Brach is a perfectly useful middle reliever with no obvious warts, who throws hard and has a pretty good slider. Still, he’s pretty low on the Orioles bullpen totem pole. Don’t forget about him altogether, but he’s definitely not a priority.

Craig Breslow

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 8/8/1980 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 2 0 59 5.0 2.7 0.5 1.81 1.12 3.60 1.7 0.7
’14 2 4 1 54 6.1 4.6 1.3 5.96 1.86 5.34 -1.2 -0.6
’15 2 2 1 45 6.1 3.5 1.1 4.30 1.43 4.58 -0.0 -0.2

Profile: Craig Breslow was awful in 2014. He attributed that to being tired after the long 2013 season. It was an argument he made as the 2014 season drew to a conclusion, and one the Red Sox apparently bought into, as they re-signed him for 2015. It doesn’t need to be an argument that you buy into, however, as there are plenty of signs that Breslow just isn’t that good. The first is the most obvious — his work against left-handed batters. As a left-handed reliever who is not a closer, his primary function is to retire left-handed hitters. During the past three seasons, his 3.72 FIP against left-handed batters is pretty pedestrian. And obviously, his 4.30 FIP against righties in that same timespan is even more so. Breslow also has seen a sharp drop in his strikeouts. With his velocity dropping, he tried to work in more changeups last season to keep hitters off balance. It didn’t work. He has never possessed a good changeup, and using it more frequently was a poor idea. He also stopped throwing first pitches for strikes, registering a 51.9% mark that was roughly seven percent lower than previous seasons, and was his lowest since his rookie season. In short, Breslow was pretty terrible across the board. He has rarely been trusted in situations where he would accrue holds, and isn’t going to be a closer any time soon, so this is all a moot point anyway — unless there’s a wave of typhoid fever in the Red Sox bullpen that he is somehow immune to, you won’t want Breslow anywhere near your fantasy team in 2015. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: Perhaps Craig Breslow was just tired last season. Whether he was or not, he’s not someone you want to target on your fantasy team heading into the 2015 season.

Zach Britton

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 12/22/1987 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 3 0 40 4.1 3.8 0.9 4.95 1.73 4.80 0.1 0.1
’14 3 2 37 76 7.3 2.7 0.5 1.65 0.90 3.13 3.1 1.1
’15 3 3 35 65 7.7 3.1 0.5 3.22 1.26 3.33 0.6 0.5

Profile: Britton exploded onto the fantasy scene in 2014, finishing third in value among relievers according to Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings. The 26-year-old had long been a top prospect in Baltimore, but flourished with the move to the bullpen, picking up nearly three mph on his sinker while greatly improving his overall swinging strike percentage. About that sinker: It generated 18.4 fastball runs above average, second highest among qualified relievers, and allowed him to record an eye-popping 75.3% ground ball rate, the highest single-season rate we have on record. It wasn’t as if he was trying to surprise hitters, either; PITCHf/x data show that Britton threw his sinker a whopping 89.3% of the time, offsetting it occasionally with his solid slider, and the southpaw didn’t discriminate platoon-wise, as he held right-handed hitters to a measly .182 batting average. All told, he finished with 37 saves, which is all the more impressive considering he didn’t take over as closer until mid-May. Of course, Britton’s season wasn’t without its blemishes; his 1.65 ERA outperformed his 3.13 FIP and 2.82 xFIP, thanks in no small part to a high 82.3% strand rate, and his ground ball ways came at the expense of his strikeouts, evidenced by a good-not-great 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Finally, a low .215 average on balls in play could conceivably rise given all those grounders, especially if Baltimore is unable to replicate a team defense that finished first in the majors in ultimate zone rating per 150 games. These caveats, however, shouldn’t cloud the main point on Britton: A move to the bullpen allowed him to simplify his approach on the mound, paving the way for him to emerge as a top fantasy closer for a team that has averaged 91 wins a season for the past three years. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Britton will be hard-pressed to replicate his outstanding season, but fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to consider him a worthy number one reliever in 2015.

Rex Brothers

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 12/18/1987 | Team: Rockies | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 19 67 10.2 4.8 0.7 1.74 1.29 3.36 2.5 1.1
’14 4 6 0 56 8.8 6.2 1.1 5.59 1.85 4.98 -0.9 -0.4
’15 3 3 4 65 8.8 4.3 0.9 4.07 1.40 4.01 0.2 0.3

Profile: There will be few players looking forward to the 2015 season more than Rex Brothers, who flopped in 2014 about as badly as a player can flop. The year began with him ready to assume the closing duties from LaTroy Hawkins atanysecondnow! It ended with him pitching mop-up duty. In between, he regressed in just about every way possible. His swinging strike percentage was down, his zone percentage was down, his swing percentages were all down and his contact percentage was up. His velocity was also slightly down, and definitely down from 2011-12. Oh also, his strikeout, walk, strikeout-per-walk, WHIP, ERA, FIP and home run per fly ball numbers all went in the wrong direction. His batting average on balls in play was also a burden, but no more so than it was in 2011 and 2012 when he was still pitching at a high level. The good news is that there really isn’t any reason why he can’t recover and become the pitcher he was. Both ZiPS and Steamer like him for mild rebounds — certainly they don’t forecast him to bounce completely back, but the fact that any rebound is expected is a sign of hope. Whether or not you want to bank on his prior track record and said modicum of hope from the projections is going to depend on your risk profile, but the safe bet is to bypass Brothers on draft days and keep a watchful eye on him as the season starts. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: The 2014 season was a disaster for Rex Brothers in every way imaginable, but the Rockies still have faith in him and he may rebound well. Nevertheless, he will hold very little value come draft day.

Brooks Brown

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 6/20/1985 | Team: Rockies | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 0 1 0 26 7.3 1.7 1.0 2.77 0.96 3.71 0.4 0.2
’15 1 1 0 15 7.2 2.9 1.0 4.07 1.34 4.04 0.1 0.1

Profile: In his first big league exposure, the 29-year old Rockies reliever proved to be a near-ideal match for Coors Field’s extreme conditions. His fourseam/change combination produced a league average strikeout rate (around 20%) with decent control and a high ground-ball rate of 58.4% good enough for a 2.77 ERA. His slider was only decent, but does keep him from suffering from extreme platoon splits. His profile isn’t the sexiest but he was effective in a middle relief role in 2014 and should see some higher leverage innings in 2015. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: A heavy fourseam/change combination served the Rockies well in middle relief, perhaps hinting at a larger role in the future for the 29-year old Brown.

Jonathan Broxton

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 6/16/1984 | Team: Brewers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 2 0 30 7.3 3.5 1.2 4.11 1.27 4.68 -0.3 -0.4
’14 4 3 7 58 7.5 2.9 0.6 2.30 1.02 3.37 1.8 0.5
’15 3 3 26 65 8.1 2.8 1.0 3.71 1.26 3.76 0.1 0.2

Profile: As long as Jonathan Broxton’s right elbow has been feeling good, he’s been an effective late-inning relief option. In five pre-injury years from 2006-10, he was in an elite class of baseball closers among Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, and late-career Mariano Rivera. Elbow surgery derailed his train wreck 2011 season, but he was healthy and effective in 2012. In 2013, he was again hurt and bad as the elbow crept back up, but once again he rebounded nicely with a 2.30 ERA and 3.37 FIP in 2014. As Broxton’s career went on, he began relying more and more on his slider, throwing it as often as 37% of the time in an injury-plagued 2013 season. Last year, Broxton cut his slider usage to just 20% — the lowest rate of his career — perhaps in an attempt to keep himself healthy. The slider is arguably the most stressful pitch on an arm, and it’s something worth knowing considering the key to Broxton’s success is his health. Broxton was traded to a bullpen of disarray in Milwaukee at the trade deadline, and the closer job appears to be his to lose. If he does lose it, it’s more likely due to injury than poor performance. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: Broxton is set to open the season as the closer in Milwaukee, where the bullpen has been a disaster the past few seasons. As long as Broxton has been healthy, he’s been reliable, and he’s coming off an injury-free 2014 in which he cut his slider usage nearly in half. He’s not the elite closer he once was, but he could be a cheap source for saves, provided his elbow doesn’t act back up.

David Buchanan

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 5/11/1989 | Team: Phillies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 6 8 0 117 5.4 2.4 0.9 3.75 1.29 4.27 1.0 0.6
’15 6 10 0 125 5.6 3.1 1.1 4.77 1.42 4.65 -0.2 0.1

Profile: The Phillies may have their next Kyle Kendrick – or better, actually – in David Buchanan, a righty who generated 60.6% ground balls with his two-seamer as well as 49.3% grounders and 20.1% swinging strikes with his changeup in 117 2/3 stanzas last year. Being the next Kendrick – or better, even – isn’t much of an accomplishment, relatively speaking, of course. Buchanan posted a 14.1 K% in 2014 and has a minor league track record that doesn’t hint at a bunch more strikeouts are coming in his age-26 season and beyond. He may have been a tad lucky (.284 batting average on balls in play) in his debut campaign, too. Basically, Buchanan’s upside involves an ERA better than fantasy average, with no counting-stats perks. Another scenario that robs him of redraft value is a year spent mostly on the farm, although his skill set could help him to avoid that somewhat easily. He’s an end-gamer or reserve pick in NL-only formats. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Buchanan coaxed grounders at a better than 50% clip in his 2014 and has a couple of solid pitches. Solid is far from spectacular, however – his inability to generate even a major-league-average strikeout rate makes him low-end NL-only material.

Clay Buchholz

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 8/14/1984 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 12 1 0 108 8.0 3.0 0.3 1.74 1.02 2.78 5.0 3.2
’14 8 11 0 170 7.0 2.9 0.9 5.34 1.39 4.01 -0.5 2.2
’15 11 9 0 173 6.9 2.9 0.9 4.19 1.33 4.06 1.7 2.1

Profile: 2014 may go down as the year fantasy owners finally threw in the towel on Clay Buchholz. Many bought in on his vastly improved (if injury-shortened) 2013, hoping he could be a nice upside pick as a third starter in most standard leagues. Buchholz came out of the gate awful, however, posting a 5.42 ERA over the first half of the season. The peripherals weren’t happy either, as the righty’s pre-All-Star-break 4.59 FIP was buoyed by massive regression in the strikeout rate department, primarily due to his inability to replicate his top-tier called strikeout looking numbers from 2013. Buchholz did show some signs of the life in the second half, with an uptick in fastball velocity and some home run regression pushing his FIP down into the 3.50 area. Headed into the last year of his guaranteed deal (he has two options), he has plenty to prove, but projecting him for better than a 4.00 FIP or 180 innings seems to be asking for trouble. He certainly still has the upside to put him in the top 30 or so starting pitchers, but you have to bake the odds of him actually getting there into your pre-draft valuations. He safest left as an upside play in the later rounds. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: Buchholz was unable to recreate his “looking strike” magic from 2013 and plummeted back to Earth. While his peripherals weren’t quite as bad as the ERA would indicate, he performed no better than a mediocre fantasy starter and lost another 30-40 innings due to injury. At 30 and only one year removed from an elite season, there is a bit of upside left deep down, however, owners willing to gamble on that should only do so once more sure bets have come off the board.

Mark Buehrle

Debut: 2000 |  BirthDate: 3/23/1979 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 12 10 0 203 6.1 2.3 1.1 4.15 1.35 4.10 2.5 2.7
’14 13 10 0 202 5.3 2.0 0.7 3.39 1.36 3.66 3.9 3.5
’15 12 11 0 189 5.5 2.2 1.2 4.45 1.34 4.49 1.2 1.5

Profile: Few players offer the stark difference between their “on paper” and “real world” value like Mark Buehrle. Entering his age-36 season, the big lefty is nothing short of a modern miracle, posting 14 consecutive 200 inning seasons despite diminishing fastball velocity — at 83.9 mph, his is the slowest in baseball save the one his knuckleballing teammate R.A. Dickey owns.He doesn’t strike anybody out (13.9% strikeout rate in 2014, lowest among qualified starters) and his win total reflects a middling team (25 over the past two years), but Buehrle always finds a way to keep the odometer rolling. Adding new wrinkles — like increasing his sinker usage, or throwing more arm-side change ups — allows the big lefty to pile up outs in bulk. He walks a fine line and each passing year increases the likelihood that it all crashes down around him, but penciling Buehrle in for another 3.75-ish ERA with a dozen wins and 200 innings pitched is as safe a bet as one can make. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: The dependable workhorse doesn’t light up the radar gun or most categories but there’s value in his 200 inning act.

Madison Bumgarner

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 8/1/1989 | Team: Giants | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 13 9 0 201 8.9 2.8 0.7 2.77 1.03 3.05 4.3 3.6
’14 18 10 0 217 9.1 1.8 0.9 2.98 1.09 3.05 3.5 3.6
’15 14 10 0 201 9.1 2.3 0.7 2.96 1.11 3.04 3.5 3.4

Profile: The man, the myth, the legend. Madison Bumgarner graduated from “great young pitcher” to “postseason demigod” in ways few would’ve expected. Of course, his regular season production couldn’t possibly match his near-perfect playoff push. Bumgarner’s 2014 campaign was slightly more pedestrian than we remember, posting a “mere” 2.98 ERA and 18 wins. The Giants left-hander showed progress in all aspects of his game, setting a career high for strikeouts with 219 and a career-low in walks allowed with just 42. Still just 25 years old, almost everything is trending in the right direction for the World Series MVP. Bumgarner’s mastery of the upper limits of the strike zone and his improved fastball command and aggression makes him a great bet to continue mystifying National League batters. Some might be wary of his tremendous workload in 2014 but, even if he gives back some of the gains in 2014, this remains an elite pitcher in a near-ideal situation. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: Don’t let postseason hyperbole overshadow another great regular season from the Giants lefty. The price will be high but the wins, ERA, and strikeouts are sure to come.

Dylan Bundy

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 11/15/1992 | Team: Orioles | Position: P
’15 5 5 0 82 7.0 3.6 1.2 4.49 1.39 4.67 -0.0 -0.1

Profile: Bundy attempted to work his way back from June 2013 Tommy John surgery last season. In 41.1 innings last year at the A-Ball levels, Bundy was mostly 90-93, hitting 94 mph with the command and curveball not close to what they once were. Later in the summer, he hit 96 mph and the curve and command were getting there, but he was shut down with an oblique problem, unrelated to his arm. He continued the upward trajectory in instructs and is expected to have stuff close to his peak stuff this year. There’s some belief that Bundy’s crazy work ethic and workout routine may have led to him coming back too early, which explains the diminished performance out of the chute last year. Some in the organization are pushing for him to be considered for a rotation spot out of camp if the arm speed and command are where they need to be. (Kiley McDaniel)

Quick Opinion: Bundy had some trouble getting all the way back following Tommy John surgery, but his ceiling remains through the roof. He should have a shot at a rotation spot as early as this season if things go well.

Sean Burnett

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 9/17/1982 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 9 6.5 3.7 0.9 0.93 1.34 4.19 0.6 -0.1
’14 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.50 1.50 3.13 -0.1 0.0
’15 1 1 0 15 6.9 2.6 0.8 3.69 1.28 3.74 0.0 0.0

Profile: Burnett has pitched a total of just 16.2 innings between the minors and majors over the last two seasons. Tommy John surgery performed last June will knock him out until around midseason. He can safely be ignored. (Mike Podhorzer)

A.J. Burnett

Debut: 1999 |  BirthDate: 1/3/1977 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 11 0 191 9.8 3.2 0.5 3.30 1.21 2.80 2.6 4.0
’14 8 18 0 213 8.0 4.0 0.8 4.59 1.41 4.14 -0.5 1.0
’15 10 10 0 173 7.7 3.3 0.7 4.05 1.33 3.64 0.8 1.6

Profile: A return to the Pirates is a good thing for A.J. Burnett. He spent two of the best years of his career there. In Pittsburgh, pitching coach Ray Searage helped to turn the pitcher on to more frequent use of the sinker. That largely coaxed from the hurler greatly improved walk rates and two of the three best ground-ball rates of his career. I’s hard not to believe that the sports hernia through which Burnett pitched at age 37 didn’t corrupt his command, control, and/or, perhaps even, velocity, particularly on his signature knuckle curve. The better offseason development – especially given that stellar pitch-framer Russell Martin has departed the ‘Burgh – for the right-hander is likely that he had surgery and enters 2015 healthy. In what Burnett intends to be his last hurrah, he should again post a better-than-average strikeout rate and is a rebound candidate. Does the crowd view him that way? Or does it see “Age: 38” as well as last season’s 10.3% walk rate and steer clear? The answer will surely be somewhere in the between. The outcome could be as well, so don’t chase or get into a bidding war for him and you’ll have a chance to appreciate some profit potential. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Burnett’s surgery to repair the sports hernia that likely hampered him in 2014 plus his return to the Bucs signals a possible return to fantasy relevance in 2015. His age (38) should mitigate some of the optimism but also the cost, so there might be room for profit in the coming season.

Jared Burton

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 6/2/1981 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 9 2 66 8.3 3.0 0.8 3.82 1.26 3.61 0.5 0.9
’14 3 5 3 64 6.5 3.5 0.8 4.36 1.30 4.23 -0.3 0.1
’15 2 2 0 35 7.6 2.9 1.0 3.65 1.26 3.98 0.2 0.1

Profile: Burton went completely off the rails in 2014, so much so that the Twins opted to buy out of his $3.6 million option for 2015. Pretty much everything across the board declined for the 33-year-old right-hander, from ground-ball rate, to strikeout rate, even down to the velocity on his fastball. Burton’s prodigious changeup — dubbed a ‘splangeup’ for its splitter-change break — was more mortal this season as well. Opponents had a .572 OPS on it, which doesn’t seem like much but still represents a 150-point jump from the season before. Couple that with a higher contact rate, higher zone rate, and lower swinging strike rate on the offering and that’s simply part of what went into Burton’s tough season. Burton was clearly usurped by Casey Fien as the number two candidate for saves, pitching more sixth and seventh innings later in the season than he did early on. Burton did however close when Perkins went down, thanks in part to Fien’s late-season struggles, and perhaps a bit of hard-headedness from outgoing skipper Ron Gardenhire. Nevertheless, Burton is still on the street and will likely command a one-year deal with low base pay, or perhaps even a minor-league contract. He would make a good resurrection project for a team like the Tampa Bay Rays, who are known for that kind of thing. Chances are pretty good that he has some juice left, but it’ll take a good fit for him to find it. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: The wheels fell off for Burton in his third season with the Twins, and his option was declined at season’s end. He is still seeking employment as of this writing, and will have to settle for a one-year deal or maybe even a minor-league deal.

Eddie Butler

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 3/13/1991 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 1 1 0 16 1.7 3.9 1.1 6.75 1.88 5.69 -0.1 -0.0
’15 5 7 0 96 5.5 3.7 1.2 5.38 1.55 5.04 -0.0 0.4

Profile: Butler’s stuff took a step forward since being drafted, with his velocity settling a tick or two higher (93-95, touching 97 mph consistently) than it did and his off-speed stuff jumping a notch as well. He’s in a dead heat with Jon Gray to be number one on on the Rockies list, but the separator for scouts is that they are worried about Butler’s durability. He’s had a lot of minor dings and there’s doubt he can hold up for 200 innings, though everything is there for him to be a starter. If he has to move to the bullpen he could be a closer, with a fastball that’s been up to 99 mph and a knockout changeup, but Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can stay in the rotation. The slider has been a 55 in the past but scouts have said it’s only been average this year. (Kiley McDaniel)

Quick Opinion: He’s either a number thre starter or a closer and he’s pretty close to being able to contribute, so there isn’t much else to do but see what he does in a full season in Denver. He should see the majors in 2015.





 

One Response to “2015 Pitcher Profiles: A – B”

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  1. Joncarlos says:
    February 23, 2015 at 8:24 am
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    All these guys but no Aaron Barrett?