2015 Pitcher Profiles: K – O

by
February 9, 2015

Tommy Kahnle

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 8/7/1989 | Team: Rockies | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 2 1 0 68 8.3 4.1 0.9 4.19 1.19 4.02 -0.2 0.3
’15 1 1 0 20 8.7 4.3 1.0 4.27 1.42 4.13 0.1 0.1

Profile: Kahnle isn’t anywhere near the closer job in Colorado, not even close enough to rack up a healthy amount of saves. He was a serviceable arm in his rookie season, but he didn’t give any indications of dominance. (Brett Talley)

Nate Karns

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 11/25/1987 | Team: Rays | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 0 12 8.2 4.5 3.8 7.50 1.92 8.38 -0.4 -0.4
’14 1 1 0 12 9.8 3.0 2.2 4.50 0.92 5.72 0.1 -0.1
’15 4 4 0 78 8.1 3.8 1.0 4.04 1.35 4.16 -0.1 -0.0

Profile: It’s not exciting for regular mixed league drafts or anything, but Nate Karns is probably only one or two spots back of the top five in Tampa Bay. That’s a decent pitcher’s park, and any starting rotation spot is interesting in the deeper leagues. Major league teams use ten pitchers on average and give significant innings to seven most of the time. If Karns gets the shot, and he should, there are other reasons to raise an eyebrow. He has velocity, for one. He tops 93 on average with a rising four-seamer and likes his hard, 84 mph curveball. After throwing over 100 breakers, he’s getting good whiff rates on the pitch (13+%). Of course, his opportunity could still end up in relief, so we’re also left reading the tea leaves represented by the 25 changeups Karns has thrown in the big leagues so far. The change only goes seven mph slower than his fastball, but the pitch also has slightly more fade and five inches more drop than his fastball. That satisfies about half of the equation for a good change. Actual results on the pitch are to come. Since Karns’ curve was the second-hardest thrown by a starter last year, it’s not surprising that it got a ton of whiffs. Maybe Karns can follow the lead of another high-velocity Tampa starter with an iffy changeup — Chris Archer is pretty good despite a mediocre change — or maybe he has a good change in him. There’s a reason to pay attention to Karns this season in any league, even if you don’t draft him. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Nate Karns may or may not have a changeup, but he should get a shot. Big velocity on the fastball and one of the hardest curves in baseball may be enough to pay attention, even if he’s only draftable in the deepest of leagues.

Scott Kazmir

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 1/24/1984 | Team: Athletics | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 9 0 158 9.2 2.7 1.1 4.04 1.32 3.51 1.7 2.6
’14 15 9 0 190 7.8 2.4 0.8 3.55 1.16 3.35 2.8 3.3
’15 12 10 0 182 7.8 2.5 1.0 3.70 1.23 3.71 2.2 2.3

Profile: Throwing 190 innings for the second time in his career and the first time since 2007, Scott Kazmir showed that his 2013 comeback wasn’t a fluke. He managed to take the hill 32 times and posted an impressive 3.55 ERA backed up with 3.35 FIP. He certainly benefited from pitching half of his games in the spacious Oakland Coliseum, as Kazmir’s 7.8% home run per fly ball rate beat his 9.2% career average and was tied for the 22nd-lowest mark in the majors. His 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings rate placed him just outside the top 30, ranking 33 among qualified starters, as did his 9.3% whiff rate, which tied for 34. His fly ball tendencies — only 30 qualified starters posted a higher fly ball rate — work for him at home as well as in two out of four away divisional parks, Anaheim and Seattle. Kazmir rates as a great third starter in fantasy and despite his tribulations, is still only pitching in his age-31 season in 2015. With a retooled offense and defense around him, Kazmir may not reach 15 wins again, but his strikeouts and strong rate stats should be make him a reliable starter. (David Wiers)

Quick Opinion: Expect Kazmir to get his share of strikeouts as well as posting a strong ERA. His home park works with his fly ball pitching profile and look for Kazmir to post a third straight useful fantasy season.

Shawn Kelley

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 4/26/1984 | Team: Padres | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 2 0 53 12.0 3.9 1.4 4.39 1.31 3.63 -0.1 0.5
’14 3 6 4 51 11.7 3.5 0.9 4.53 1.26 3.02 -0.0 0.9
’15 3 2 1 55 10.5 2.9 0.8 2.79 1.13 3.06 0.5 0.3

Profile: The Yankees traded Kelley to the Padres in late December in a swap of right-handed relievers, though Eno Sarris believes San Diego has netted a guy with closer potential. It’s not hard to see why: Kelly — who served briefly as the Yankees’ ninth-inning man when David Robertson went on the disabled list with a groin strain in April — has struck out more than 30% of the batters he’s faced for two years in a row. In case that’s not convincing, his swinging strike percentage in 2014 zoomed to 14.7%, 10th among qualified relievers, and he posted his best strike percentage in three years. Much of the success can be attributed to a significant increase in his slider usage; he threw the pitch 57.7% of the time last year, second most among qualified relievers, and it generated a ridiculous 22.1% whiff rate. He’s posted mid-four ERAs over the past two years, but don’t let that fool you: Kelley’s FIP, xFIP and (especially) his SIERA in that time have been quite good, his career history suggests he can improve on a low 67.8% strand rate last year and he’s occasionally been the victim of some bad luck on home runs allowed — a problem that will be soothed by a transition to Petco Park. As it stands now, Joaquin Benoit is the Friars’ closer, with setup men Kevin Quackenbush and Dale Thayer in the late-inning fold, but Kelley, who turns 31 in April, would immediately become a dark-horse candidate to pick up saves if things were to go south in the San Diego bullpen. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Kelley already has some fantasy appeal in deeper leagues due to his strikeout ability and potential to pick up holds, but keep an eye on him as a possible saves candidate on the wire in 2015.

Casey Kelly

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 10/4/1989 | Team: Padres | Position: P
’15 1 1 0 20 8.2 2.0 0.8 3.23 1.16 3.27 0.1 0.1

Profile: Kelly, now 25, reached the Majors in 2012 but blew out his elbow and lost all of 2013 and most of ’14 to the dreaded Tommy John surgery. The right-hander will likely open the 2015 season in either Double-A or Triple-A with an eye on returning to the majors at some point in the second half of the year. The lost development time will certainly do him no favors but he was a fairly polished product at the time of the injury. He has the ceiling of a number three starter but has a history of being more of pitch-to-contact guy with strong ground-ball rates rather than a big time strikeout machine. He has potential as a solid NL-only guy once he solidifies a role in the majors but might be a bit of a stretch as a mixed-league performer, at least in the early stages of his (restarted) MLB career. (Marc Hulet)

Quick Opinion: A former top prospect, injuries have slowed Kelly’s ascent and he enters 2015 with no defined big league role. He’s a name to monitor somewhat closely as he could have some NL-only value in the second half of the year.

Joe Kelly

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 6/9/1988 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 5 0 124 5.7 3.2 0.7 2.69 1.35 4.01 2.5 0.5
’14 6 4 0 96 6.2 3.9 0.7 4.20 1.35 4.37 0.8 0.6
’15 9 9 0 144 6.0 3.5 0.9 4.64 1.45 4.39 0.7 1.1

Profile: It will be tough to gauge expectations for Kelly going into 2015, but generally there are more things to dislike than like. Let’s start with the bad. He has always gotten a serviceable number of strikeouts (16%) as long as he kept his walks down, but in 2014, he didn’t keep his walks down. His walk rate jumped to 10.1% which was the 12th-worst value in the league out of the 171 pitchers with 60 innings pitched. With non-elite strikeout potential and a high walk rate, his ERA estimators have him pegged in the low fours. His 2014 ERA was at those same values even though his 2012 (3.53) and 2013 (2.69) ERAs were below his estimators. Part of the reason he has not lived up to his potential is his curveball. It just doesn’t have the life it once had. The swinging strike rate on it has gone from above league average to below league average over the past three seasons (12.5% to 11.3% to 8.3%). Hitters are just not chasing it as much. As for the good news, he had a top five percentile ground-ball rate in 2014 (55%) and ground balls are encouraged in the AL East due to its home run happy ball parks. With the off season starting pitching additions to the Red Sox, playing time will also be an issue with Kelly. He may have the role of a swingman or fifth starter. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Joe Kelly is one of several ground-ball pitchers who joined the Red Sox this past year. His biggest issue is that he needs to improve his high walk rate.

Kyle Kendrick

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 8/26/1984 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 13 0 182 5.4 2.3 0.9 4.70 1.40 4.01 -0.3 1.6
’14 10 13 0 199 5.5 2.6 1.1 4.61 1.36 4.57 0.1 0.4
’15 5 6 0 86 5.3 2.6 1.3 4.92 1.43 4.81 0.4 0.7

Profile: Kyle Kendrick entered his first offseason as a free agent coming off his worst season as a rotation member relative to the league (126 ERA-, 124 FIP-). The good news: He’s lost virtually no velocity in his career. The bad: His average fastball velo won’t crack 90, and he’s right-handed. The bad wouldn’t be so bad (perhaps even good) if he had a more effective two-seamer (lifetime 46.1% ground balls, 3.0% swinging strikes), because he has a couple of solid complementary offerings and a decent lifetime walk rate (6.6%). As it is, the 30-year-old, without a new skill, appears to be destined to continue to post strikeout rates well below league average (14.0% in 2014) and unspectacular ground-ball rates (44.6%) and, thus, remain, at best, a fifth starter. In a given season, Kendrick could again be a profitable $1 innings eater in considerably deep leagues, with a little luck and/or the right situation. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Kendrick possesses a couple of quality complementary pitches but is otherwise unspectacular, to say the least, given his low strikeout rate and mediocre ground-ball rate. At best, he can be a worthwhile $1 innings eater in league-only formats and deep-league streamer.

Ian Kennedy

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 12/19/1984 | Team: Padres | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 10 0 181 8.1 3.6 1.3 4.91 1.40 4.59 -0.5 0.5
’14 13 13 0 201 9.3 3.1 0.7 3.63 1.29 3.21 2.2 2.9
’15 11 11 0 192 8.7 3.0 1.0 3.78 1.25 3.80 1.4 1.3

Profile: The move to from Arizona to San Diego helped Kennedy become a valuable fantasy asset. The biggest change was the decline in home runs. In 2012, he gave up 1.2 homers per nine innings, and in 2013 he gave up 1.3 HR/9. In 2014, that rate dropped to a nice 0.7. The home change was expected, but the unexpected change was a 1.5 mph increase in fastball velocity (90.3 mph to 91.8 mph). With the increase, his strikeout rate jumped up to 9.3 per nine. A key for his value going into 2015 will be if he can keep the strikeouts up or have them drop to the near 8 K/9 level he showed from 2010 to 2013. I wouldn’t bet on it staying up. He will be 30 years old and will likely see his velocity decline. Value him for his pre-2014 production and just consider it gravy if he over produces. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Ian Kennedy saw an improvement in his value by pitching half his games in San Diego and putting on velocity. Even though his home run and strikeout numbers improved, be leery of the strikeout values staying up.

Clayton Kershaw

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 3/19/1988 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 16 9 0 236 8.8 2.0 0.4 1.83 0.92 2.39 8.8 6.6
’14 21 3 0 198 10.8 1.4 0.4 1.77 0.86 1.81 7.9 7.2
’15 15 8 0 201 10.1 2.0 0.7 2.45 1.02 2.63 5.2 4.8

Profile: There’s not much that has to be said about Clayton Kershaw. He’s the best pitcher in the league and it carries over to fantasy baseball as well. Unless you are in a NL-only league, no matter what category or league settings you have, Kershaw is the top dog. Kershaw led the league in wins, ERA (for the fourth consecutive year), WHIP and complete games. Kershaw’s 239 strikeouts only placed him seventh in the league but that’s because he missed his first few starts of the year with a strained muscle in his back. That injury clearly didn’t affect his 2014 season and besides the fact he throws baseballs for a living, Kershaw isn’t a particularly large injury risk. It would surprise nobody if Kershaw leads the league, or is close to it, in all fantasy baseball categories and that places him firmly number one on all draft boards among starting pitchers. A few years ago, the idea of any starting pitcher having an ERA under 2 sounded insane, Kershaw could do it for the third year in a row. Wow. (Ben Pasinkoff)

Quick Opinion: The best pitcher in major league baseball.

Dallas Keuchel

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 1/1/1988 | Team: Astros | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 6 10 0 153 7.2 3.0 1.2 5.15 1.54 4.25 -0.7 1.1
’14 12 9 0 200 6.6 2.2 0.5 2.92 1.17 3.21 4.9 3.9
’15 12 10 0 192 6.6 2.7 0.7 3.80 1.31 3.61 2.2 2.7

Profile: The big breakout for Dallas Keuchel came in late 2013, actually. Sure, the 3.39 xFIP in that second half could be poo-pooed as a small sample run, but there was underlying change. Keuchel had dropped the curve and added a slider, and it made all the difference. The slider actually gets more whiffs than his vaunted change. Now with two pitches that both average about 80 on the gun, but go in different directions, he’s equipped to battle batters of both handedness. As with every top sleeper that busts out, though, it’s fair to wonder if the love has gone too far. After all, Keuchel still doesn’t strike more batters out than about league average for a starter, so he’s no fantasy ace. And! That slider! He used it less as 2014 went along. Perhaps related to the ‘golf-ball sized‘ swollen area on his thumb, his usage of the pitch went from around a quarter of the time in the first half to closer to 15% in the second half. The good news is that his final two starts saw more sliders once again, and now hopefully he’s used to throwing that slider often. If he can keep that ground-ball rate elite (his sinker is great), he should be able to have better home run rates than his projections assume, and that would give him another good year with the ERA and WHIP, if not the strikeout rate. He’s still a good mid-rotation fantasy starter, and worth that sort of investment. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: If people in your league don’t believe, believe Keuchel is going to be a mid-rotation fantasy starter again. If people in your league think Keuchel is an ace, then let him go. He just doesn’t have the strikeouts to be a fantasy number one.

Mike Kickham

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 12/12/1988 | Team: Mariners | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 3 0 28 9.2 3.2 2.5 10.16 1.98 5.73 -1.6 -0.6
’14 0 0 0 2 4.5 4.5 4.5 22.50 4.50 10.13 -0.2 -0.1
’15 1 1 0 20 6.7 3.8 1.0 4.40 1.42 4.41 -0.0 -0.1

Profile: Kickham was claimed off waivers by the Cubs in late December, and then traded to the Mariners, so his role with his new organization is unknown at this point. He’s been a starter for his entire minor-league career, but not a particularly good one. His earned run average in 47 Triple-A starts sat at 4.38, with nearly four walks per nine innings. In his 14 major-league appearances (three starts), he has a 10.98 ERA with a 2.14 WHIP. Seeing as he’s pretty much just a fastball/slider guy, it seems like his best chance at sticking in the majors would be as a lefty specialist. As it turns out, the Mariners have a need for left-handed relievers — seeing as Charlie Furbush is pretty much the only reliable one they have — so it’s not at all unlikely that Kickham makes his way to the major-league bullpen at some point this season. (Scott Strandberg)

Quick Opinion: It’s highly questionable that Kickham will be a significant part of the Mariners’ bullpen this year, and even if he is, there’s no reason to own him in fantasy leagues.

Craig Kimbrel

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 5/28/1988 | Team: Braves | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 3 50 67 13.2 2.7 0.5 1.21 0.88 1.93 3.2 2.2
’14 0 3 47 61 13.9 3.8 0.3 1.61 0.91 1.83 2.5 2.2
’15 4 2 35 65 13.1 2.8 0.5 1.91 0.97 2.01 1.5 1.4

Profile: … and make that three straight seasons of 40+ saves and an ERA under two. The best closer in baseball continued his domination and made fantasy owners who were willing to draft the first closer off the board happy about their decision. The top player at his position is always going to be expensive, and if you are contemplating drafting Kimbrel, you know you will be paying a hefty premium for his services. However, there are strategies out there that include ensuring you have a guy like Kimbrel and other elite closers. Waiting on starting pitching was an effective strategy last year if you made sure to have top tier closers, for example. The only qualm with drafting Kimbrel this year is the expectation of how poor the Braves team will play next season. Jason Heyward and Justin Upton are gone, and there may be more deals made that may weaken both the team’s offense and defense in the short term. Even so, the lack of talent on the team should not deter you too much from drafting the game’s premier ninth inning man. He will still get plenty of opportunities and he will still strike out a ton of batters. Draft him with confidence if you are willing to pay the price. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Craig Kimbrel dominated again last season and should be expected to do the same in 2015. There is a bit of worry that the Braves will be a much worse team next year, but that should not deter you from drafting a sure thing like Kimbrel.

Brandon Kintzler

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 8/1/1984 | Team: Brewers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 3 0 77 6.8 1.9 0.2 2.69 1.06 2.54 1.3 1.4
’14 3 3 0 58 4.8 2.5 1.2 3.24 1.34 4.68 0.6 -0.7
’15 2 2 1 45 6.4 2.5 0.8 3.87 1.33 3.78 0.0 0.0

Profile: Kintzler isn’t somebody fantasy owners should worry about, but he is a useful major league pitcher. The sinker specialist has managed a 57% ground-ball rate in each of the last two seasons. He doesn’t pile up strikeouts, but a low walk rate helps to offset that particular issue. He was used in an interesting role last season. He threw 58.1 innings over 64 appearances, yet he also had nine appearances that lasted longer than one inning. Generally speaking, he won’t be eating high leverage innings, although he may come on to roll the occasional double play. (Brad Johnson)

Quick Opinion: Kintzler isn’t a fantasy asset, but the Brewers are thankful to have him. His reliable ground-ball ways can help to short circuit opposing rallies.

Corey Kluber

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 4/10/1986 | Team: Indians | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 11 5 0 147 8.3 2.0 0.9 3.85 1.26 3.30 1.9 2.8
’14 18 9 0 235 10.3 1.9 0.5 2.44 1.09 2.35 7.0 7.3
’15 13 9 0 192 9.2 2.2 0.8 3.21 1.13 3.05 3.6 4.0

Profile: Even Carson Cistulli — founder of The Corey Kluber Society — couldn’t have predicted the extent of Kluber’s breakout in 2014. Kluber was a sleeper candidate heading into the 2014 season, thanks to his underlying 2013 peripherals (3.30 FIP, 3.10 xFIP) that hinted at a stronger skill set than his 3.85 ERA might indicate. But what actually happened was one of the more surprising stories of the 2014 season. From the get-go, Kluber was pure filth. His five-pitch arsenal is anchored by a 94 mph sinker that helps him maintain an above-average ground-ball rate. It also includes two truly plus-plus secondary offerings — a 90mph cutter with so much break that PITCHf/x misclassifies it as a slider and an 83mph slurve that had more horizontal break than any curveball or slider in the majors in 2014. Those offerings led to a 12% swinging-strike rate and a 28% strikeout rate — both top-five marks among starting pitchers. There’s no doubt: Kluber’s arsenal is legitimately nasty. Add in good command — his walk rate and first-pitch strike percentage are both well above league average — and you’ve got the complete package. The knock on Kluber in the past was that he allowed hard contact, and the .316 batting average on balls in play suggests that may still be an issue, but Kluber’s line drive rate dropped to league-average levels and the terrible, now slightly improved, Indians defense plays a role in that. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: Kluber went from saber-darling to legitimate major league ace in 2014, as evidenced by his American League Cy Young Award victory. The notion of Kluber having hard-contact issues was put to rest, as evidenced by his line drive and home run rates. While you can’t necessarily pencil in Kluber for another Cy Young, you can certainly pencil him in as a top-15 pitcher in the MLB.

Tom Koehler

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 6/29/1986 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 10 0 143 5.8 3.4 0.9 4.41 1.36 4.27 0.7 0.6
’14 10 10 0 191 7.2 3.3 0.8 3.81 1.30 3.84 2.3 1.8
’15 4 5 0 67 7.0 3.5 0.9 4.41 1.39 4.20 0.1 0.3

Profile: After posting an ERA of 3.18 (4.41 FIP) in his first 11 starts, Koehler pitched to a 4.16 (3.53 FIP) in his final 21. Down the stretch, he was a little more effective at controlling things he could: striking out more batters while cutting his walk rate. Koehler’s secondary offerings are just okay. His curveball — thrown harder than most — helps tamp lefty production down, and his slider is solid versus right-handed batters (.224 average against). Everything works off of Koehler’s fastballs, though, which have been hit hard at times, making his newfound command all the more important. Koehler seems like a good fit in Miami. He’s solid, and his ERA should be around league average. If the strikeouts stay up and he’s able to keep his walks down, a meeting in the middle of the two earlier numbers could be in order. Follow his command closely, if his second-half numbers hold he could become a rather useful option. (Landon Jones)

Quick Opinion: Koehler’s arsenal is limited, but decent enough to get by. He’s solid, and might show flashes of something more, but for the time being he’s a backend/streaming option.

Michael Kohn

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 6/26/1986 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 4 0 53 8.8 4.8 1.2 3.74 1.32 4.56 0.4 -0.3
’14 2 1 0 23 9.9 7.6 0.4 3.04 1.31 4.27 0.2 -0.1
’15 0 0 0 1 8.6 4.6 1.1 4.03 1.41 4.48 0.1 -0.0

Profile: The Angels didn’t want him anymore. Then the Rays didn’t want him. Hint hint. That probably means you don’t want him. A career 15% walk rate combined with fly balls galore tell you why.  (Mike Podhorzer)

Hiroki Kuroda

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 2/10/1975 | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 11 13 0 201 6.7 1.9 0.9 3.31 1.16 3.56 4.6 3.8
’14 11 9 0 199 6.6 1.6 0.9 3.71 1.14 3.60 2.8 3.5
’15 0 0 0 1 6.5 1.9 1.1 3.88 1.22 3.97 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: How do you say “consistency” in Japanese? Well, for the purposes of this blurb, Hiroki Kuroda will do; since coming over to the U.S. in 2008, the right-hander averaged 188 innings and 30 starts, and he was fantastic in his three seasons as a Yankee, averaging 3.7 wins above replacement. Kuroda in 2014 was the same as usual; a modest-but-not-awful 17.8% strikeout rate, a microscopic 1.6 walks per nine innings and a 1.14 WHIP, tied for the best of his career. True, his 3.71 ERA was his highest in five seasons, but that can probably be chalked up to some poor luck stranding runners. Unfortunately, Kuroda’s fine season wasn’t rewarded in the wins department, as he finished with only 11 victories, thanks in no small measure to a bullpen that blew six Ws for him. Heading back to Japan, Kuroda, for all intents and purposes, has now retired, ending a seven-year MLB career that probably wasn’t fully appreciated. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Though he probably wasn’t fully appreciated while he was stateside, Kuroda is here no longer. Arigato for the consistent work here and gambarre with your team in Japan, Kuroda-san. 

John Lackey

Debut: 2002 |  BirthDate: 10/23/1978 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 13 0 189 7.7 1.9 1.2 3.52 1.16 3.86 3.8 3.2
’14 14 10 0 198 7.5 2.1 1.1 3.82 1.28 3.78 2.2 2.8
’15 12 10 0 182 7.4 2.1 0.9 3.61 1.19 3.51 2.0 2.5

Profile: After returning triumphantly from Tommy John surgery in 2013, Lackey followed up strongly in his second full season back from the procedure. A trade deadline deal sent him from the Red Sox to the Cardinals, where his skills fell off slightly, primarily due to a rise in fly ball rate. But the prospect of a full season in the National League for the first time in Lackey’s career is intriguing, as he should enjoy a strikeout rate bump, if old age doesn’t take its toll just yet. His fastball velocity has remained amazingly consistent, and there are no obvious signs of an imminent slowdown. Of course, at age 36, one should still be a bit cautious when setting 2015 expectations, but he’s in a good situation in St. Louis and in front of an outfield defense that now includes Jason Heyward. Don’t ignore the veteran on draft day. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: Despite his advanced age, Lackey’s velocity and skills have held up extremely well in recent years. A full season in the National League should result in another year of solid fantasy earnings.

Mat Latos

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 12/9/1987 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 14 7 0 210 8.0 2.5 0.6 3.16 1.21 3.10 4.0 4.4
’14 5 5 0 102 6.5 2.3 0.8 3.25 1.15 3.65 1.6 1.5
’15 10 11 0 182 6.6 2.6 1.0 4.11 1.30 4.04 1.1 1.8

Profile: Latos didn’t make his first start of 2014 until mid-June, but he turned in a pretty fantasy-friendly 102.1 innings once he did take the mound. His 3.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are obviously good numbers and in line with what he had done in his two previous seasons in Cincinnati. But it’s somewhat surprising that he was able to maintain that level of performance given a steep drop in fastball velocity. His average fastball velocity was down about two miles per hour, which seems like the culprit for his strikeout rate dropping about 3.5-4% from where it had been the two years prior. And it’s not like his velocity increased as he worked his way through the season. The velocity drop may not be the reason that his batted ball mix changed, but it’s equally concerning that he induced the lowest rate of ground balls he has in any full season and gave up fly balls at a rate closer to what he did when in San Diego. He managed to keep balls in the park at an above average rate, but if his home run per fly ball rate regresses back to his norm, or if he has some bad luck in that respect, the results could be ugly. The picture painted here may be a bit negative, but there’s not anything indicating things are going to get better for Latos. Hoping things stay the same also seems blindly optimistic. Maybe things will only get a little bit worse, but it will be hard for him to live up to his draft day price no matter what. (Brett Talley)

Quick Opinion: A drop in velocity and a concerning shift in batted ball mix make Latos a prime candidate to regress in 2015. It’s possible injury concerns could depress his draft day price to the point where he’s worth drafting, but most likely he won’t be a good value.

Brandon League

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 3/16/1983 | Team: Dodgers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 6 4 14 54 4.6 2.5 1.3 5.30 1.55 4.93 -1.5 -0.9
’14 2 3 0 63 5.4 3.9 0.0 2.57 1.46 3.40 0.5 0.1
’15 3 3 1 55 6.3 3.0 0.6 3.79 1.34 3.77 -0.2 -0.2

Profile: Brandon League’s velocity has dropped nearly three miles per hour from his peak, and his ability to miss bats has gone along with it. Despite the fact that the major leagues keep striking out more and more, League’s strikeout percentage has fallen from 24.3% in 2009 to 13.9% in 2014. Though even that modest number is up from 2013’s brutal 11.2%, his walk rate was up as well, leading to a career-low 4% strikeout minus walk percentage, which was the fifth-worst of the 270 pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. So how was it that League was still moderately useful? Among those same 270 pitchers, only one had a better ground-ball rate; a year after giving up eight homers, he allowed zero in 2014. His inability to miss bats makes him highly vulnerable to the whims of batting average on balls in play, but an extreme ground-baller is always a useful piece, even if a highly overpaid one.(Mike Petriello)

Quick Opinion: “Tons of grounders, declining velocity and very few strikeouts” isn’t exactly what the Dodgers hoped for when they signed League to a laughably large contract following 2012, but at least the grounders represent a positive, which is a lot more than he could say a year ago.

Mike Leake

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 11/12/1987 | Team: Reds | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 14 7 0 192 5.7 2.2 1.0 3.37 1.25 4.04 3.2 1.6
’14 11 13 0 214 6.9 2.1 1.0 3.70 1.25 3.88 2.8 1.9
’15 10 11 0 173 6.5 2.2 1.0 3.94 1.26 3.94 1.4 1.4

Profile: Is Mike Leake the best fifth starter in baseball? More to the point: is Leake even a fifth starter anymore? Leake has developed into a back-end stalwart for the Reds, making 30 starts for three years running. He strikes out batters at a below-average rate but he compensates with good walk rates and an improved ability to keep the ball in the park since 2013. Last year saw him strike out more hitters than ever before while keeping the ball on the ground more than ever. There is some concern his strikeout rate might not be sustainable. Leake upped his sinker and slider usage, the latter proving to me a more effective pitch in 2014 than in previous seasons. Sinker/slider Mike Leake might prove to be an improvement over the “jack of all trades/master of none” kitchen-sink style he worked with earlier in his career. If Leake gives back some of his strikeouts or his sinker/slider approach produces the ugly side of such an arsenal (read: too many long balls) then Leake goes back to the fifth starter bin: a non-starter in most formats but a guy with significant real world value. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: Was 2014 a sign of adjustment? Mike Leake hopes a change in his pitch selection proves he’s a legitimate mid-rotation starter for 2015.

Sam LeCure

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 5/4/1984 | Team: Reds | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 1 61 9.7 3.5 0.6 2.66 1.21 2.97 1.4 0.8
’14 1 4 0 56 7.6 3.8 1.0 3.81 1.52 4.24 -0.1 -0.3
’15 3 3 4 65 7.4 3.1 1.0 3.93 1.30 4.12 -0.1 -0.2

Profile: LeCure turned 30 last year, lost about two miles per hour of his fastball, and went from being a pretty good, not great reliever to a below average reliever. Even if he does rebound, he has one career save. Not a name you need to know. (Brett Talley)

Cliff Lee

Debut: 2002 |  BirthDate: 8/30/1978 | Team: Phillies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 14 8 0 222 9.0 1.3 0.9 2.87 1.01 2.82 5.2 5.1
’14 4 5 0 81 8.0 1.3 0.8 3.65 1.38 2.96 0.5 1.7
’15 10 10 0 173 7.8 1.6 1.0 3.52 1.14 3.42 2.2 2.6

Profile: Cliff Lee didn’t require surgery on the strained flexor pronator that sent him to the disabled list twice, the second time for good, in 2014. The injury could be a precursor to a sprained ulnar collateral ligament and qualifies as the most serious associated with his arm in the lefty’s major league career, however. The good news: He’d been expected to have a pretty normal offseason, and his ability remains intact. His poor health was almost surely to blame for location and/or velocity issues last season. Lee has the kind of repertoire (high dependence on fastballs and changeups, low breaking-ball usage, good control, and good command) that ages well, so if he remains healthy, then he should be reliable. That could again mean a strikeout rate above eight per nine in addition to something very close to his other standard low ratios. He could be traded if he proves that he’s past the arm problem, perhaps putting him in a better situation, but that’s hardly something to factor in. There needs to be some discount because of the increased injury risk, but there should be little doubt about the 36-year-old’s performance if he’s healthy, so there’s a chance that he’s a profitable acquisition in 2015. Whether he is will largely depend on whether everyone else realizes that. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Many of Lee’s indicators didn’t stray much in 2014, even in the face of the forearm strain that basically wrecked his campaign. There’s some increased risk of injury, but he warrants some confidence because his skills remain high-level and should continue to age well.

Dominic Leone

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 10/26/1991 | Team: Mariners | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 8 2 0 66 9.5 3.4 0.5 2.17 1.16 3.07 1.5 0.7
’15 2 2 6 40 8.9 3.2 0.7 3.22 1.22 3.31 0.3 0.3

Profile: A former 16th-round pick, Dominic Leone flew through the minors in a year-and-a-half to make the Mariners opening day roster. As he was at every minor league stop, Leone was superb in the big leagues, striking out over a quarter of the batters he faced while walking less than a tenth. Leone features a mid-90s fastball and a good cutter that sits around 90, using his slider as an effective offspeed offering. On many other teams, Leone would be considered for use in the late innings, but the Mariners have plenty of talented arms, and Leone provides value as a righty who can throw multiple innings if need be. He should end up with an ERA under 3.00 again, and could have some value in deeper AL-only leagues, but not if you’re looking for holds or future saves. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Leone’s debut went very well last year, and he’d be a closer candidate on many other teams. On the Mariners, Leone will pick up strikeouts and keep his ERA and WHIP low, which could be helpful in deeper AL-only leagues.

Jon Lester

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 1/7/1984 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 15 8 0 213 7.5 2.8 0.8 3.75 1.29 3.59 3.9 4.3
’14 16 11 0 219 9.0 2.0 0.7 2.46 1.10 2.80 5.8 6.1
’15 13 9 0 192 8.7 2.4 0.8 3.31 1.17 3.29 3.1 3.5

Profile: Entering his age-30 season in 2014, Lester’s fantasy stock was fading. Sure, he had been a fantasy stallion in his first few seasons, but from 2011 through 2013, his FIP and xFIP nearly touched four, his strikeouts per nine innings dipped to 7.7 and he averaged just 13 wins a year. It wasn’t that Lester had lost his use as a mid-rotation fantasy arm, but his days as an ace seemed clearly behind him. That changed big time in 2014, when Lester put together what might have been the finest season of his career, vastly improving his strikeout and walk results, slashing his ERA and grabbing 16 wins en route to finishing sixth among starting pitchers in Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings. The secret? As Nicholas Minnix noted, manager John Farrell’s return to Boston — where he had served as pitching coach during Lester’s early years — helped the southpaw improve his mechanics, changes that began to bear fruit down the stretch in 2013 before fully blossoming the next season. Lester, of course, would be traded in July, but he continued his solid year in Oakland, posting a 3.13 FIP with solid strikeout and walk rates. Now with the Cubs, he’ll be getting a full-time taste of National League offense, and even if he suffers some regression in his strand rate and home-run-to-fly-ball rate in the Windy City, he’ll still offer fantasy owners value across the board. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Lester won’t be among the top starters taken on draft day, but he’s re-established himself as a strong number two hurler with the upside of ace-like production.

Colby Lewis

Debut: 2002 |  BirthDate: 8/2/1979 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 10 14 0 170 7.0 2.5 1.3 5.18 1.52 4.46 -0.2 1.6
’15 7 8 0 125 6.6 2.5 1.5 4.66 1.35 4.86 0.7 0.6

Profile: After missing the 2013 season due to injury, Lewis was healthy, but not entirely productive for the Rangers in 2014. Lewis not only had his usual problems with homers, but struggled a bit with runners on base and balls in play — whether or not those are products of his abilities or the abilities of those around him, it’s not clear. Lewis will enter 2015 trying to prove he’s still got the goods, but it’s hard to bet on him after seeing him struggle after missing almost 20 months of MLB action. At best, Lewis will likely be a spot start candidate in 2015; at worst, he’ll prove to be so ineffective that he’s out of a job. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Lewis was unimpressive in his return from injury, and it’s hard to envision a spectacular return to form in 2015. Stay away.

Tim Lincecum

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 6/15/1984 | Team: Giants | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 14 0 197 8.8 3.5 1.0 4.37 1.32 3.74 0.1 1.5
’14 12 9 1 155 7.7 3.6 1.1 4.74 1.39 4.31 -0.7 -0.2
’15 6 7 0 111 7.9 3.2 0.8 3.94 1.29 3.65 -0.3 0.1

Profile: Only six starting pitchers that threw 150 innings had a worse ERA than Tim Lincecum in 2014. Only four that have thrown 300 innings have had a worse ERA since 2013. Dude has fallen off since his Cy Young days. And the fall has been so hard and for so long that you can’t just point to xFIP or his strikeout rate and hope for a rebound. When the pitcher himself confesses to being lost, trying to hide his fastball, and not knowing how to improve his fastball command or velocity… there’s very little to hang your hat on here if you’re looking for better days in the future. Especially if you’re talking about him as a starter. In the deepest of leagues, you can say that this formerly impressive Freak still had a slider, splitter, and curve that were average or better by whiff rates in 2014. You can say that he’s still striking guys out and just needs to stop giving up homers, which could be possible in that home park. But once you say those things, you should make sure not to pay much for your long-shot sleeper that might end up in the bullpen. And if you’re not in a deep league, leave him on the wire after your draft. He might throw another no-hitter, but good luck figuring out when. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: The Cy Young seasons are long gone. There was a no-hitter this year, but that seems so far away at this point too. Tim Lincecum can still get whiffs, but he never had command, and now that his fastball is lucky to break 90, batters are teeing off. Avoid until he makes a major adjustment to his mechanics or approach, and even then… wait for some results.

Matt Lindstrom

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 2/11/1980 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 4 0 60 6.8 3.4 0.3 3.12 1.43 3.15 1.0 1.0
’14 2 2 6 34 4.8 3.2 0.8 5.03 1.74 4.37 -0.7 -0.1
’15 2 2 0 40 6.3 2.8 0.8 4.12 1.34 3.96 -0.1 -0.1

Profile: With Nate Jones going down almost immediately, the White Sox turned to Lindstrom to close out games early in the year. The numbers weren’t pretty. he saw a big drop in his strikeouts, and had trouble with men on base. The latter issue may have been due to luck, the former issue suggests decline. Lindstrom also dealt with an oblique injury in spring training, and it’s unclear if that impacted him early in the season. If he was going to improve, he never had the chance to do so. Lindstrom injured his ankle in late May which knocked him out for the rest of the season. Lindstrom may work his way back into a major league pen, but it would be tough to see him used in high-leverage situations again. (Chris Cwik)

Quick Opinion: Lindstrom will hope to hook on with a club this winter. If he finds his way back into a bullpen, it’s unlikely he’ll be used in a high-leverage role.

Francisco Liriano

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 10/26/1983 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 16 8 0 161 9.1 3.5 0.5 3.02 1.22 2.92 3.8 3.1
’14 7 10 0 162 9.7 4.5 0.7 3.38 1.30 3.59 2.0 1.6
’15 11 9 0 173 9.1 3.7 0.6 3.60 1.28 3.29 1.7 2.4

Profile: After a disastrous couple of years in the American League back in 2011 and 2012, a move to the National League and pitcher-friendly Pittsburgh was just what Liriano needed to see his fortunes turn. His grounder ability returned and the strong Pirates bullpen ensured that his inherited runners would remain stranded, sparking a rebound in his strand rate. He still has trouble finding the plate, as evidenced by a major league low zone percentage, but that may be by design. He ranked 28th in reach rate, so hitters are certainly chasing those balls outside the zone. He also allowed the lowest contact rate outside the zone in baseball, so they have had major difficulties actually putting those balls in play. Why throw strikes when balls work nearly as effectively? A high walk rate means he’s unlikely to contribute positive value in WHIP, and since he hasn’t thrown more than 163 innings since 2010, his counting stats are not going to excite. But, he remains in a good situation with the Pirates and should comfortably earn mixed league value once again. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: A move to Pittsburgh has been a boon to Liriano’s fantasy value, as his ground balls have returned and his LOB% has rebounded. While he’s a poor bet to reach even just 180 innings, he should remain a good source of ERA and strikeouts when he’s on the mound.

Kyle Lobstein

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 8/12/1989 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 1 2 0 39 6.2 3.2 0.7 4.35 1.25 3.82 0.3 0.5
’15 2 2 0 39 6.0 3.2 1.1 4.60 1.41 4.56 -0.1 -0.1

Profile: Lobstein is missing two items from keeping him from being fantasy relevant — opportunity and talent. The 25-year-old lefty looks to fill the role as a long reliever for the Tigers. He is not going to get the chance for any saves and few if any wins while pulling mop up duty. The reason he is in this role is because he is just not a good major league pitcher. He might even belong in Triple-A if the Tigers didn’t have such a weak bullpen. He doesn’t have the velocity (88 mph fastball) or the strikeout rate (six per nine) to be a setup man. He has shown some ability to suppress home runs and his 2014 ground ball rate was league average. His 6 K/9 and three walks per nine are just not playable in any leagues, especially if he isn’t starting on a regular basis. He may eventually become useful in deeper leagues if he becomes a starter as a streaming option. For now, he is just a guy. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Kyle Lobstein will have no fantasy impact in 2015 if his talent and role stay constant. If he gets a spot in the rotation, he may have some value in the deepest leagues.

Jeff Locke

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 11/20/1987 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 7 0 166 6.8 4.5 0.6 3.52 1.38 4.03 2.3 1.0
’14 7 6 0 131 6.1 2.7 1.1 3.91 1.27 4.37 0.7 0.1
’15 7 7 0 115 6.5 3.4 0.7 4.20 1.39 4.01 0.2 0.6

Profile: Jeff Locke has had some fantasy value in recent seasons by virtue of consistently outperforming his peripherals with a sub-four ERA. And he should continue to have some advantages, such as an infield committed to defensive shifts, a major asset for an extreme ground-ball pitcher like Locke. However, Locke will lose the services of elite defensive framer Russell Martin, who left for Toronto in free agency. And Locke doesn’t have any strikes to spare; he has struck out just 6.5 batters and walked 3.7 batters per nine in his career. His diminished walk rate in 2014 was an important step for him to establish himself as a viable back-end major league starter, but it is not enough for him to have fantasy relevance except in NL-only formats. (Scott Spratt)

Quick Opinion: Locke has had sub-four ERAs each of the last two seasons, but in both seasons, he overachieved his peripherals. Couple that with mediocre career strikeout and walk numbers, and Locke remains an NL-only play in 2015.

Boone Logan

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 8/13/1984 | Team: Rockies | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 2 0 39 11.5 3.0 1.6 3.23 1.18 3.82 0.6 0.3
’14 2 3 0 25 11.5 4.0 2.2 6.84 1.68 5.13 -0.8 -0.3
’15 2 2 1 45 9.5 3.2 0.9 3.46 1.24 3.44 0.5 0.5

Profile: When a team signs a reliever to a three-year contract, it probably doesn’t expect that player to be passed by at least three pitchers on the depth chart and then miss a huge chunk of the season after elbow surgery. Logan was awful in 2014 before a bone spur shut him down in mid-September. His underlying numbers look mostly like the Logan of old but he simply struggled to get anybody out, presumably due to a bum elbow. There isn’t even Coors Field to blame as he was just as bad at away from the Mile High City as he was in Colorado. If the surgery on his throwing arm cured him of his ills, he can be a fine left-handed reliever in a setup role. He probably won’t allow three home runs in just 11 innings against left-handed batters again, so look for a healthy Logan to return to Lefty One Out GuY duties in 2015.

Quick Opinion: After a disastrous 2014, Boone Logan hopes to get healthy to restore his spot in the Rockies bullpen.

Kyle Lohse

Debut: 1998 |  BirthDate: 10/4/1978 | Team: Brewers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 11 10 0 198 5.7 1.6 1.2 3.35 1.17 4.08 3.8 2.0
’14 13 9 0 198 6.4 2.0 1.0 3.54 1.15 3.95 2.6 2.0
’15 10 12 0 182 6.3 2.1 1.4 4.47 1.31 4.46 0.6 0.7

Profile: It can be a bit difficult to get excited about a pitcher who has never reached seven strikeouts per nine in a season, but there is a lot to like about Kyle Lohse in deeper fantasy formats. For one, he has evolved into one of the truly elite command pitchers dating back to his time in St. Louis. In fact, over the last four seasons, he has not exceeded two walks per nine, and that has held his WHIP under 1.20 in each of those seasons. Second, Lohse has been exceptionally durable, exceeding 185 innings in each of his last four seasons and averaging more than 200 innings over the last three. At 36 years old and with no velocity to worry about losing, Lohse seems a fair bet to do what he always does in 2015. The question will simply be if a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 12 wins will be enough to make up for his 130 strikeouts in your format. (Scott Spratt)

Quick Opinion: Lohse is a tremendously consistent pitcher, but low strikeout totals make him more a deep league option despite his solid ERA, WHIP, and health track record.

Aaron Loup

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 12/19/1987 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 6 2 69 6.9 1.7 0.6 2.47 1.14 3.32 1.4 0.8
’14 4 4 4 68 7.3 3.9 0.5 3.15 1.17 3.83 1.1 0.5
’15 4 3 3 65 7.8 2.9 0.7 3.37 1.27 3.60 0.6 0.5

Profile: The 2013 Blue Jays were mostly disappointing, but in the process they did find some useful relievers. Aaron Loup was one of those. In 2013 his good control, adequate strikeout rate, and, most of all, his extreme ground-ball rate, combined to make him a very good middle relief option. He is better against fellow southpaws, but not horrible against righties, either. In 2014, he was still useful in a similar role, but not nearly as effective, despite a lot of luck on balls in play. He upped his strikeout rate a bit, but that was outweighed by control problems. His WHIP is okay for league in which that counts, but relievers with a mid-three ERA are no big deal in fantasy these days when they do not bring high strikeout rates or get saves. Unless your league counts holds or Loup somehow ends up as Toronto’s closer via injury, he can be safely ignored on draft day and picked up (like many other middle relievers) on the waiver wire. (Matt Klaassen)

Quick Opinion: Loup predictably regressed in 2014, but was still okay. The main problem for Loup in fantasy terms is that he is a non-elite middle reliever. Unless you really need holds, that means he has little or no fantasy value that would set him apart from all the other waiver bait.

Jordan Lyles

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 10/19/1990 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 9 1 141 5.9 3.1 1.1 5.59 1.51 4.57 -1.3 0.5
’14 7 4 0 126 6.4 3.3 0.9 4.33 1.37 4.22 1.6 1.6
’15 7 7 0 115 6.3 3.0 1.0 4.62 1.42 4.30 0.9 1.3

Profile: Lyles is a good pitcher for the Rockies because of his ground ball nature (52% in 2014). There is the problem though … he is a pitcher for the Rockies. At home, he posted a 4.81 ERA, and on the road he posted a 3.93 ERA. Neither number is great, but he is unplayable at home. The biggest difference between his home and road numbers is the inflated batting average on balls in play at Coors, but he also struck out fewer batters at home. Nothing he does stands out. Of the 128 pitchers who threw 120 innings in 2014, his strikeout minus walk rate was the 16th-lowest. He has basically been the same pitcher in his first four seasons with is ERA and ERA estimators fluctuating between four and five. Nothing points to a break out. Maybe his walk rate will finally stop increasing (2.5 to 2.7 to 3.1 to 3.3 walks per nine) and level out around three. He is worth a play in NL-only leagues and 20+ team leagues if you can avoid playing him at home. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Jordan Lyles would have some possible fantasy value if he didn’t pitch for the Rockies. Unless he taps into some hidden talent, he is unownable.

Lance Lynn

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 5/12/1987 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 15 10 0 201 8.8 3.4 0.6 3.97 1.31 3.28 1.9 3.4
’14 15 10 0 203 8.0 3.2 0.6 2.74 1.26 3.35 4.3 3.1
’15 11 10 0 182 8.1 3.1 0.9 3.71 1.26 3.77 1.7 1.8

Profile: The knock on Lance Lynn prior to 2014 was that he didn’t retire left-handed batters consistently enough in his first two seasons as a starter to be, basically, more than a league-average rotation piece. He silenced many critics by holding opposite-handed hitters to a .243/.325/.372 slash line last season. He did so by ditching, for the most part, an ineffective changeup and pairing his two-seam fastball – similar break, harder than the deprecated pitch – more often with his less frequently used curveball. That suckered those lefties into ground balls a bit more often. The approach gives him two distinctly different weapons – in terms of both break and speed – for batters who previously tormented him. Lynn may have sacrificed a few strikeouts to get here, but there should be no complaints with the overall results, and he still struck out more than 20% of the men he faced. The big question: Will he hold on to all those gains? He was probably still a bit fortunate in terms of average on balls in play against him, especially if opponents can adjust, so maybe split the difference. If people buy at Lynn’s 2014 earnings, pass, but if they think 2014 was all luck, then there’s still a chance to profit. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Lynn finally seemed to figure out how to get left-handed batters out in 2014 – and it wasn’t all luck. But maybe a little luck. So if the crowd believes, then he’s too pricey, but if they’re heavy doubters, then he could still be a good purchase.

Tyler Lyons

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 2/21/1988 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 4 0 53 7.3 2.7 0.8 4.75 1.23 3.73 0.0 0.4
’14 0 4 0 36 8.8 2.7 1.0 4.42 1.20 3.65 -0.4 0.2
’15 4 3 0 63 7.6 2.3 0.9 3.49 1.21 3.61 0.3 0.2

Profile: The Cardinals have used Lyons as a swingman, but his splits suggest a possible role as a lefty specialist. Right-handed hitters have teed off with a .338 weighted on base average against Lyons, while left-handers have scuffled to a .230 wOBA. It’s worth noting that the samples involved are tiny. The southpaw will turn 27 next season and mostly leans upon a mix made up of a four seam, sinker, and slider. Unless he’s making a spot start against a particularly anemic (and left-handed) lineup, Lyons probably won’t factor into any fantasy plans in 2015. He’s a useful major league piece, given his flexibility, but that’s about all. (Brad Johnson)

Quick Opinion: Lyons is a useful major league pitcher who has no purpose for fantasy owners. He could fill in with some starts if the injury bug bites St. Louis, but he’s a better fit as a LOOGY.

Jean Machi

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 2/1/1982 | Team: Giants | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 1 0 53 8.7 2.0 0.3 2.38 1.09 2.29 1.0 0.9
’14 7 1 2 66 6.9 2.4 0.7 2.58 0.95 3.43 1.3 -0.0
’15 3 3 3 65 7.6 2.5 0.7 3.25 1.20 3.30 0.2 0.1

Profile: Jean Machi had another impressive ERA in 2014, and now boasts a career 2.71 ERA despite not reaching the majors until his age-30 season. The good news ends at or around there. His peripherals took a hit in 2014 — his strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate moved up — and were it not for his slender .230 batting average on balls in play, it seems very likely he would have been a league average hurler. League average is worth something, of course, but it’s not worth much in fantasy leagues. Machi is well worth watching early in the 2015 season. If his splitter is diving hard, and hitters can’t elevate the offering, then he could maybe ease into higher leverage roles with the Giants. The fact that his manager avoided using him in big moments in the postseason suggests that he has a long way to go in recovering that confidence. Don’t rely on him to continue to beat his FIP if hitters are taking him out of the park. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Machi has two consecutive good ERA seasons, but his 2014 peripherals worsened considerably. Even at his worst, though, he hasn’t been that bad. So if he limits the homers and keeps the grounders coming, he’s worth a spot somewhere in your bullpen.

Paul Maholm

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 6/25/1982 | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 11 0 153 6.2 2.8 1.0 4.41 1.41 4.24 0.3 0.7
’14 1 5 0 70 4.3 3.6 1.0 4.84 1.56 4.96 -0.9 -0.8
’15 2 2 0 35 6.6 2.2 0.8 3.56 1.25 3.76 0.1 0.0

Profile: If there are two things that Paul Maholm does well, it’s making starts and inducing ground balls. In each of his first eight full seasons as a starter in the majors, the left-hander started 25 or more games while spending no less than 150 innings on the hill in a single season. And while real baseball general managers value the consistency on the bump every five days, fake baseball general managers are a bit more concerned with wins, strikeouts, and ratios — none of which Maholm provides exceptionally well. Most recently in 2014, the Dodgers featured Maholm both as a starter and out of the bullpen, but his season came to an abrupt end when the veteran southpaw tore his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) while covering first base. In 30 combined appearances last season, Maholm owned a 4.84 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP and a miniscule 1.9% strikeout minus walk rate. The numbers aren’t exciting and he doesn’t have a team at the time of this writing, so consider Maholm a reserve round pick at best in deeper “only” leagues. (Alan Harrison)

Quick Opinion: Maholm is expected to make a full recovery from an August surgery to repair a torn ACL, but the soft-tossing lefty will likely only carry value in deeper “only” depending on where he signs.

Seth Maness

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 10/14/1988 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 2 1 62 5.1 1.9 0.6 2.32 1.26 3.43 1.4 0.2
’14 6 4 3 80 6.2 1.2 0.8 2.91 1.10 3.38 0.9 0.3
’15 3 3 1 55 6.1 1.5 0.6 3.19 1.19 3.29 0.3 0.2

Profile: Maness is a useful real world reliever, but he’s not somebody to target in fantasy leagues. He racks up ground balls while limiting walks, but a tepid strikeout rate eliminates any value to his fake owners. He does see frequent action, which has allowed him to post double digit holds in the last two seasons. Unfortunately, he’s more of a middle reliever or else he could have a shot at 20 holds. (Brad Johnson)

Quick Opinion: Maness has no fantasy role outside of holds league. However, he’s still a useful major league reliever thanks to a big ground-ball rate and strong command.

Jeff Manship

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 1/16/1985 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 5 0 30 5.3 3.5 1.8 7.04 1.60 5.59 -0.4 -0.1
’14 1 2 0 23 6.3 5.5 0.4 6.65 1.65 4.13 -0.6 -0.0
’15 0 0 0 1 6.5 3.3 1.0 4.38 1.39 4.34 -0.1 -0.0

Profile: In his limited time (139 1/3 innings, parts of six different seasons), Jeff Manship has put together a pretty uninspiring body of work. Most of his pitch-type data don’t present reasons to be excited, although the samples are limited and spread out. He has yet to show that he has anything resembling consistently good command, and most of his stuff is below-average for swings and misses as well as ground balls. Despite his poor results as an exclusive reliever for Philadelphia in 2014, (6.65 ERA, 15.2% strikeout rate, 13.3% walk rate in 23 frames), his stuff had considerably more life than it showed in any previous campaign. Still, Manship would have to build on that, command and locate it a lot better, and maybe even come up with a better plan in order to improve his outcomes. And then, to be relevant, ascend to a role that matters to fantasy owners. Tall order for the 30-year-old. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Manship has yet to make anything but a negative impact at the major league level thanks to his sub-par repertoire. He’s a long way from fantasy relevance.

Sean Marshall

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 8/30/1982 | Team: Reds | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 0 10 8.7 1.7 0.0 1.74 0.58 1.98 0.2 0.3
’14 0 0 0 14 9.0 7.7 0.6 7.71 2.50 5.06 -0.6 -0.2
’15 1 1 0 15 7.7 2.9 0.8 3.44 1.25 3.67 0.1 0.0

Profile: Once upon a time, Marshall was a very good reliever who probably could have handled a closer job if given the opportunity. But the opportunity for a long-term stint in that role never really came along. Now he’s 32, he’s thrown 24.1 innings in the last two years, and he had shoulder surgery this summer. If healthy, maybe he could return to form, but don’t hold your breath. (Brett Talley)

Nick Martinez

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 8/5/1990 | Team: Rangers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 5 12 0 140 4.9 3.5 1.2 4.55 1.46 4.94 0.7 0.6
’15 1 2 0 29 5.6 3.8 1.7 5.44 1.54 5.65 -0.0 -0.1

Profile: Nick Martinez was forced to jump from Double-A to the majors last season, and he struggled to get easy outs, ending the year with a 4.55 ERA in 140+ innings. A relatively well-regarded prospect, he walked 9% of the batters he faced while striking out a mere 12.6%, well below the league average of 20.4%. An extreme fly-ball pitcher in Texas’ hitters haven, Martinez had a little trouble with the home run ball, and could actually see that problem increase next season due to some simple regression. Martinez’s stuff isn’t bad — he mixes a low-90s fastball with a slider, curve, and change — but he lacks a pitch that fools hitters on a consistent basis. Until the 24-year-old can figure out which of his offspeed pitches can be a real weapon, he’ll continue to be unimpressive as a big leaguer. Martinez could probably use some time in Triple-A to work on things, but he may not have that luxury. If he’s in the bigs to start the season, stay away. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Martinez struggled in his jump to the majors, and didn’t show much to inspire hope for the future. Martinez could use some more times in the minors to work on his offspeed stuff, so stay away until he proves he’s made improvements.

Carlos Martinez

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 9/21/1991 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 1 28 7.6 2.9 0.3 5.08 1.41 3.08 -0.3 0.3
’14 2 4 1 89 8.5 3.6 0.4 4.03 1.41 3.18 0.3 1.2
’15 9 8 0 145 7.7 3.4 0.8 3.82 1.31 3.82 0.5 0.6

Profile: Fantasy owners will want to keep a close eye on Martinez. Per research conducted by Eno Sarris and Daniel Schwartz, Martinez may possess one of the top overall pitch arsenals in the league. It’s a four pitch mix with a 97 mph heater, sinker, slider, and changeup. While his 4.03 ERA (.333 batting average on balls in play) isn’t awe inspiring, he maintained a solid strikeout rate (8.46 per nine) and devastating swinging strike rate (12.9%) over 89.1 innings. The sole blemish among his peripherals is a 3.63 walks per nine rate. A bigger cause for concern are his platoon splits. Against Martinez, lefties have a career .355 weighted on base average. Watch his use of the changeup in the spring if you’re nervous about his splits. His role with the Cardinals is uncertain, but he’s more likely to start than relieve. The indicators for a true breakout season are present. (Brad Johnson)

Quick Opinion: Martinez features, gas, a mostly full repertoire, and all the components of a standout pitcher. All that’s missing are positive results. Keep him on your sleeper radar.

Nick Masset

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 5/17/1982 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 2 0 0 45 7.2 4.8 0.6 5.80 1.78 4.33 -0.6 0.1
’15 0 0 0 1 7.5 3.1 1.0 4.07 1.36 4.05 0.1 0.0

Profile: Not too long ago, Nick Masset was a stalwart middle reliever for the Cincinnati Reds. Two shoulder surgeries later, he will be lucky to get a major-league deal. Despite undergoing his second right shoulder surgery before the 2014 season began, Massett managed to hurl 45 innings of Coors Field drama. He posted his lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate in five years. Combine that with the Rockies’ stadium and you get a 5.80 ERA. Masset has lost about two mph on his fastball since his heyday with the Reds. He might find his way back into some middle relief work at some point, but for fantasy purposes, he’s not worth watching. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Masset had some good years awhile ago, but his ceiling is/was middle reliever. He might help a shallow bullpen at some point, but he’ll be less than important in fantasy.

Justin Masterson

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 3/22/1985 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 14 10 0 193 9.1 3.5 0.6 3.45 1.20 3.35 3.9 3.5
’14 7 9 0 128 8.1 4.8 0.8 5.88 1.63 4.50 -1.8 0.3
’15 11 9 0 173 6.9 4.0 0.7 4.26 1.43 4.08 1.4 2.0

Profile: Justin Masterson’s disaster 2014 season began when he turned down a three-year, $45 million extension offered to him by the Indians in Spring Training. He was knocked around right out of the gate, posting a 5.20 ERA and 4.20 FIP in his first 10 starts, and was eventually traded to the Cardinals, where things only got worse. Masterson’s 30 innings in St. Louis were dreadful, to the tune of a 7.04 ERA and 5.84 FIP. Inflammation in his right knee cost Masterson a month of the season, and the 200-inning workhorse of the previous five seasons was limited to just 129 innings. Entering his age-30 season, Masterson signed on with the Red Sox for just one year and $9 million, joining the stable of extreme ground ball pitchers Boston assembled to pitch in front of the Green Monster. If it’s ground balls they want, it’s ground balls they’ll get, as Masterson’s 58% grounder rate was a top-three mark in the MLB last year. But Masterson has serious problems repeating his delivery, and it’s the three mile per hour drop in velocity and career worsts in walk rate, zone percentage and first pitch strike percentage that are concerning. Masterson won’t be as bad as he was in 2014, but you don’t know which Masterson you’re going to get, and a two-pitch repertoire makes an eventual transition to the bullpen easy to imagine. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: It doesn’t get much worse than Masterson’s 2014, but he found a new home in the place where he started his career and appears to have a spot in the rotation to begin the season. His poor mechanics exacerbated his already worrisome command issues in 2014, though a knee injury may have played a part in that. Masterson could be a sneaky buy-low option for 2015, or he could end up pitching a good chunk of the season from the bullpen.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 9/13/1980 | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 3 0 38 7.7 3.7 0.9 4.42 1.24 4.32 -0.1 0.2
’14 3 3 1 83 8.4 5.4 0.6 3.89 1.34 4.21 0.2 -0.1
’15 0 0 0 1 8.2 3.8 1.1 4.17 1.36 4.29 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: In 2014, Dice-K did his best Wade Miller impression. Okay…Zach Duke impression: starter turned successful reliever. His strikeout rate was the best it’s been since his rookie year. His ground-ball rate was the best it’s ever been. At 34 years old next year, would it have continued? We will never know. Dice-K signed a contract with the Softbank Hawks of the Japanese Pacific League. (Dan Schwartz)

Brian Matusz

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 2/11/1987 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 0 51 8.8 2.8 0.5 3.53 1.16 2.91 0.6 1.0
’14 2 3 0 51 9.2 3.0 1.2 3.48 1.32 4.00 0.3 0.3
’15 3 2 1 55 8.1 2.8 1.1 3.41 1.22 4.00 0.4 0.2

Profile: Prior to last season, if folks had been asked which left-handed starter-turned-reliever was likelier to lead the Orioles in saves in 2014, most of them would probably have picked Brian Matusz, not Zach Britton. The former has fanned about 25% of the hitters he’s faced and walked just 7.5%, with a pop-up rate approaching 7% (nearly double the league average for relievers), in his 116 innings out of the bullpen. Alas, he’s still been unreliable against right-handed batters (a .397, .330, and .372 weighted on-base average against in each of the last three years), even in that role. Unless he rediscovers his once-lauded changeup or improves his curveball, he’s likely to remain a glorified specialist. Matusz’s 2014 outcomes on those two offerings lend some hope, but other data suggest that some good luck was involved. Progress can’t be ruled out, but the southpaw still has some things to overcome before he’s more than a modest contributor of holds in deep leagues. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Matusz has been considerably more effective in his career as a reliever, but he needs a better curveball or his changeup back to become more than a LOOGY, practically speaking. He’s a safe bet in deep leagues for some holds but not to see save opportunities.

Tyler Matzek

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 10/19/1990 | Team: Rockies | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 6 11 0 117 7.0 3.4 0.7 4.05 1.39 3.78 2.1 2.0
’15 7 9 0 134 6.9 4.6 1.0 5.00 1.55 4.69 0.5 1.0

Profile: In his five years in the minor leagues, Tyler Matzek posted the following FIPs: 4.64, 4.26, 8.04, 4.41, 5.26, 4.62 and 4.83. That last one was from his 2014 stay at Triple-A Colorado Springs. This is not what you would call an encouraging track record. And yet, when he was promoted to Denver in mid-June, he proceeded to post a 3.78 FIP. To say this was a surprising turn of events is a bit of an understatement, but there was a reason the Rockies selected Matzek 11th overall in the 2009 draft, and he finally showed it last season. He flashed his fantastic slider regularly, and his strikeout percentage improved with each month he was in the majors, finishing up at 24.8% in September. Control has always been a problem for Matzek, and that was true in the majors as well, as he walked 8.8% of the batters he faced, or just slightly more than league average. He will have to work on harnessing his control if he is ever to take the next step. Certainly, the projection systems are bearish on him moving forward, though ZiPS is more optimistic than Steamer. And given his thin track record of success, tempering expectations may be wise. Still, Matzek represents a nice deep sleeper candidate for 2015. He is all but assured a spot in the Rockies’ Opening Day rotation, and if he is able to replicate his work in the second half, he could end up being a valuable part of your fantasy team’s starting rotation. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: Tyler Matzek has not been good for very long, but he always carried with him immense talent, and if he continues to flash it, he may finish 2015 as one of the season’s pleasant surprises. He is definitely worth grabbing toward the end of your draft.

Brandon Maurer

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 7/3/1990 | Team: Padres | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 8 0 90 7.0 2.7 1.6 6.30 1.57 4.90 -1.5 -0.2
’14 1 4 0 69 7.1 2.5 0.8 4.65 1.33 3.49 -0.2 0.7
’15 4 4 3 84 8.3 2.9 0.9 3.67 1.25 3.65 -0.1 0.0

Profile: The Mariners obviously don’t love Brandon Maurer, so you shouldn’t fall too hard for the factoids that are about to appear in this space. 1) Brandon Maurer had the number one spin rate on his curveball this year, and a similarly high spin rate was why the Astros went and found Collin McHugh. 2) By career whiff rates, Maurer has an above average slider (16% whiffs), an average curve (10%), and a representative change (11%). 3) His command has been better than average, his velocity even as a starter was above-average, and he’s gotten average grounders, so those aspects of his game haven’t been a problem. Unfortunately, you have to return to the first sentence after the excitement of the list. What sort of opportunity will his new team give him if his old team threw him by the wayside so often? The Padres seem to have seven or eight pitchers ahead of Maurer as we speak, and they’ve been so active it’s hard to call them done. If his shot is in the bullpen, he’ll have to leap past some names there, too. And the Mariners had him abandon his curve, so his arsenal is more narrow than it used to be. Maybe the Padres will allow him recapture the magic of that curveball and give him an opportunity to be fantasy relevant this year. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Brandon Maurer is only 24 but it seems like he’s running out of chances. If he’s a fastball/slider reliever, he’s got a tough road ahead of him for fantasy relevance. But if his new team gives him back his curve and a chance in the rotation, take notice.

Trevor May

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 9/23/1989 | Team: Twins | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 3 6 0 45 8.7 4.3 1.4 7.88 1.77 4.77 -1.2 0.2
’15 1 1 0 10 7.2 4.4 1.1 4.84 1.50 4.77 -0.0 0.0

Profile: May took a big step forward in his first season at Triple-A in 2014, leading many Twins fans to wonder when “May day” would eventually come for the big club. That day came and went, with May lasting just two innings, walking seven and whiffing none in his debut against Oakland. His second start against the Astros wasn’t much better, leaving many to openly jump off the May bandwagon as if 4.1 innings was some sort of indicator of who he is, and who he might be. Through three starts, May had a 9.00 ERA, 3-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a pair of losses with just nine innings pitched. The next seven appearances (six starts) were considerably better. The 7.61 ERA was unsightly, but May fanned 41 in 36.2 innings pitched, and managed to walk just nine batters in that span. He was still hit pretty hard, but at least started to show the attributes of what made him a decent pitching prospect. The Twins have overhauled the rotation a bit in the offseason, and that likely leaves May competing with Tommy Milone for the last role in the rotation. If May lands in the bullpen, he could rocket up the ranks toward the back end, but it seems as though a ticket to Rochester is more likely. He’s probably hands off for now. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: In a perfect world, the Twins would have room for May and Alex Meyer in their rotation. That isn’t the case at this moment, and May in fact might be ticketed for Triple-A again. Keep an eye on him, but he’s not a candidate to be drafted in leagues this season.

Zach McAllister

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 12/8/1987 | Team: Indians | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 9 0 134 6.8 3.3 0.9 3.75 1.36 4.03 1.4 1.6
’14 4 7 0 86 7.7 2.9 0.7 5.23 1.44 3.45 -0.6 1.4
’15 3 3 0 54 8.1 2.3 1.1 3.71 1.22 3.71 0.2 0.2

Profile: Zach McAllister started 2014 as a member of the Indians opening day rotation and ended it in the bullpen — where he will start 2015. He posted a 5.89 ERA in his first 10 starts, though things weren’t really as bad as they appeared (3.89 FIP, 4.03 xFIP). Nevertheless, the ineffectiveness and lower back injury sent McAllister to the disabled list, then the minors, then the bullpen. In his absence, Carlos Carrasco and T.J. House emerged as legitimate starters, joining rotation fixtures Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar. That leaves McAllister without a spot. In 13 bullpen innings toward the end of the year, McAllister impressed (2.77 ERA, 1.44 FIP, 2.39 xFIP), and the lighter workload allowed the 6-foot-6 righty’s fastball to play up to 95 mph from 92. He is out of options, so the 27-year-old will open the season as a member of the Indians bullpen, likely in a long relief role. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: McAllister worked his way out of the Indians rotation in 2014 and is now likely third in line behind T.J. House and Josh Tomlin in terms of rotation depth. His effort out of the bullpen at the end of the season has the Indians hoping he could potentially develop into a bullpen weapon — and he might make few spot starts if the rotation gets ugly — but McAllister will likely pitch more low-leverage innings than meaningful ones in 2015.

Brandon McCarthy

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 7/7/1983 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 11 0 135 5.1 1.4 0.9 4.53 1.35 3.75 0.7 1.8
’14 10 15 0 200 7.9 1.5 1.1 4.05 1.27 3.55 1.7 3.0
’15 11 9 0 163 7.2 1.7 0.8 3.46 1.15 3.32 1.9 2.1

Profile: In the first half of the season with the Diamondbacks, McCarthy battled the luck dragons, as he allowed a .345 batting average on balls in play and insane 20% home run per fly ball rate, while stranding just 66.7% of baserunners (league averages are .300, 10%m and 70% respectively). The poor fortune resulted in an inflated ERA over five, despite significantly increased fastball velocity that drove a strikeout rate surge. The Yankees saw through the ugly ERA and traded for the oft-injured pitcher in early July. McCarthy rewarded their faith in the peripherals by posting a sub-three ERA with the team, while continuing to punch out batters at a career-best clip and displaying pinpoint control. Every pitch McCarthy threw this season generated a swinging strike rate above his career average, likely due to the big boost in fastball velocity, which made everything more effective. Now returning to the National League with the Dodgers, he’ll get to take the mound in a home park that suppresses run scoring. If his velocity spike sticks, his ERA should tumble below four and he’ll be a near lock to deliver a profit to fantasy owners. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: McCarthy’s skills surged in 2014, driven by a significant jump in fastball velocity, but his results were marred by poor batted ball luck and an inflated HR/FB rate. Back in the National League, his ERA should drip well below four if he is able to maintain that increased velocity on his fastball.

T.J. McFarland

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 6/8/1989 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 1 0 74 7.0 3.4 0.8 4.22 1.49 3.84 0.1 0.4
’14 4 2 0 58 5.2 2.0 0.3 2.76 1.41 3.29 0.8 0.6
’15 2 2 0 35 6.6 2.5 0.7 3.46 1.26 3.65 0.2 0.2

Profile: McFarland is basically a knuckleballer without the knuckleball. He throws primarily one pitch — his 90 mph sinker — and he generates almost no strikeouts and almost infinity ground balls. The former Rule 5 pick never really pitched relief before landing on the Oriole’s major league roster, so it’s not inconceivable the birds might try him in the rotation again at some point. His 2014 success (a 71 ERA- across 58.2 IP) may lend extra credibility to the notion that a modern starting pitcher can survive with a strikeout rate under 15%. If they decide to keep him in the bullpen, he’ll likely continue to be a powerful situational weapon, nabbing key double plays with his absurd 60% ground-ball rate. But that also means he’s in a tricky spot fantasy-wise — neither a closer prospect nor a surefire starter candidate. Add in the lack of strikeouts, and McFarland makes for the rare excellent pitcher, poor fantasy player. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: He may start for the Orioles; he may play ground-ball ace reliever. Either way, his limited strikeouts and iffy potential in either role means McFarland is a real-life treasure with a limited fantasy-life appeal. Only look for him to fill out your pitcher bench if you think he’ll start or close.

Jake McGee

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 8/6/1986 | Team: Rays | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 3 1 62 10.8 3.2 1.1 4.02 1.18 3.41 0.2 0.6
’14 5 2 19 71 11.4 2.0 0.3 1.89 0.90 1.73 2.7 2.6
’15 4 2 22 65 11.0 2.4 0.7 2.28 1.02 2.67 1.3 1.0

Profile: Few pitchers in baseball throw harder — or higher — than Jake McGee. There are no secrets when the Rays closer enters the game: he’s throwing the heat and he’s going to elevate it. 46% of all pitches he threw in 2014 were higher than three feet off the ground, one of the highest rates in baseball (via Baseball Savant.) He’s been one of the game’s premier relievers over the last three seasons, and now he has the closer’s title to go with it. His numbers and approach compare nicely with Sean Doolittle over this time: their strikeout differential (strikeout rate minus walk rate) are nearly identical at 25.3% and 25.2% respectively, and their home run rates are both close to 0.6 per nine innings. They represent two dominant lefties that throw almost exclusively fastballs in the upper nineties. The concern now is McGee’s health, as he’s set to miss the first month or so after having bodies removed from his throwing elbow. Once he’s healthy, McGee’s as good as any reliever in baseball. The strikeouts come fast and furious and he’s the closer until new manager Kevin Cash decides he isn’t. A great value as others reach for bigger names on better teams. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: Quietly one of the very best relievers in baseball over the past three years, Jake McGee hopes to bounce back from off-season shoulder surgery and return to his dominant form in 2015.

Dustin McGowan

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 3/24/1982 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 25 9.1 4.2 0.7 2.45 1.21 3.67 0.2 0.2
’14 5 3 1 82 6.7 3.6 1.4 4.17 1.38 5.02 0.4 -0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 7.4 3.3 1.3 4.32 1.36 4.56 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: Wait, wasn’t Dustin McGowan a Blue Jay for life? Is he allowed to be a free agent? After being with the Blue Jays despite being hurt for years and years, Dustin McGowan is indeed a free agent. In his brief time in the majors in 2013, he showed signs of maybe being a useful middle reliever. In 2014, he actually got a few starts, during which he was not too great. Problematically, when he went back to the bullpen, he wasn’t anything special, either. One would imagine any potential employers will see him as a reliever. He still has impressive fastball velocity, but that is about it. He is a fastball-slider pitcher, for the most part, and thus is not great against lefties, although this could be papered over in the bullpen. McGowan just does not do anything that would set him apart from any other 30-something right handed reliever, at least not from a statistical standpoint. In other words, even if he finds a job, McGowan is fantasy waiver bait. (Matt Klaassen)

Quick Opinion: It seemed like just yesterday that Dustin McGowan was a promising young starter with arm problems. Now a free agent in his mid-30s, even when healthy he’s just another right-handed reliever without fantasy relevance.

Collin McHugh

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 6/19/1987 | Team: Astros | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 4 0 26 3.8 1.7 2.1 10.04 1.92 5.78 -1.0 -0.1
’14 11 9 0 154 9.1 2.4 0.8 2.73 1.02 3.11 4.0 3.3
’15 12 11 0 192 7.9 2.7 1.1 4.03 1.26 3.96 1.8 2.1

Profile: For pitchers with over 90 innings pitched last year, Collin McHugh had the 19th-best strikeout minus walk rate in all of baseball due a top 15 strikeout rate and top-65 walk rate. There are some concerns. He increased his slider usage, which has a swinging-strike rate over one standard deviation below average, and along with his heavy curve usage, his breaking ball usage topped baseball in August, which could impact his long-term health. Until then, ride his outcomes versus righties and curveball spin rates to glory. McHugh’s curve had the 14th-best whiff/swing rate in baseball last year. (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: McHugh might regress in three important categories: batted-ball luck, homers per fly ball and left on base rate. But if he keeps throwing all those breaking balls and stays healthy, his curve is devastating enough to maintain much of his excellence. Devalue him in dynasty leagues based on longterm health risk, but target him for the now.

Yoervis Medina

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 7/27/1988 | Team: Mariners | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 6 1 68 9.4 5.3 0.7 2.91 1.31 3.86 1.6 0.3
’14 5 3 0 57 9.5 4.4 0.5 2.68 1.33 3.45 1.0 0.3
’15 2 2 0 45 9.1 3.8 0.7 3.43 1.28 3.48 0.2 0.2

Profile: Despite a crowded bullpen with a plethora of talented arms, and despite issues with command and control, Yoervis Medina has managed to lock down a late-inning role in Seattle over the past two seasons. His walk rate improved by 2.5 percentage points in 2014, and he makes up for his walks by not allowing dingers, even away from Safeco Field. Funky Cold sits around 95 mph with his fastball, and features a nasty slurvy breaking ball that can buckle hitters’ knees. With former closers Danny Farquhar and Tom Wilhelmsen in the Mariners bullpen, Medina likely isn’t even second or third-in-line for saves, but he will pick up about 20 holds with ease. If you’re in an AL-only holds league, Media is an asset who will also help your ERA. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Funky Cold Medina has some control problems, but he’s locked down a role in the back of the Mariners bullpen. Consider him in AL-only leagues that count holds.

Kris Medlen

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 10/7/1985 | Team: Royals | Position: P
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 15 12 0 197 7.2 2.1 0.8 3.11 1.22 3.48 3.5 2.6
’15 6 6 0 112 6.4 2.1 1.0 3.85 1.24 3.92 0.6 0.5

Profile: Medlen looked like an entirely new and improved pitcher the first time he recovered from Tommy John surgery, recording two very impressive seasons in 2012 and 2013. Unfortunately, Medlen injured his elbow again last spring and was forced to have the dreaded second Tommy John surgery. The Braves opted not to take the risk and tender Medlen a contract, but he was able to land a two year deal with the Royals for a mutual option for 2017. The likelihood, since this is his second Tommy John surgery, is that the recovery time will not allow him to contribute in the first half of this season. Even hoping for him to be helpful for both the Royals and fantasy teams by the second half may be optimistic, as the Royals backloaded the deal — they may be hoping for more out of him in 2016 rather than 2015. If he returns to form, Melden is one of the better pitchers around due to his fastball and changeup combination. Sadly, elbow injuries have derailed his career and there is an immense amount of risk in owning Medlen even in long term formats. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Medlen will likely be out most if not all of 2015 as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery. Even in long term leagues, owning Medlen is a risk due to the difficulties one faces in recovery from a second TJ surgery.

Jenrry Mejia

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 10/11/1989 | Team: Mets | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 2 0 27 8.9 1.3 0.7 2.30 1.17 2.46 0.6 0.7
’14 6 6 28 93 9.4 3.9 0.9 3.65 1.48 3.73 0.5 0.2
’15 3 3 22 65 8.9 2.8 0.7 3.32 1.21 3.20 0.2 0.3

Profile: Since his arrival to the majors at age 20, Mejia’s batting average on balls in play hovers around .330, which has grounded his value. Some early 2014 struggles as part of the Mets rotation sent him to the bullpen for good. Since his first relief appearance in 2014, Mejia’s ERA was 2.72 with a top 50 contact rate for relievers over 40 innings pitched. That came with a .344 BABIP, back issues and a sport hernia. Despite it all, he saved 28 games and should be the Mets closer of the future once Tommy John returnee Bobby Parnell gives way again. As the season went on, he made good decisions with his repertoire. While starting to struggle, he swapped out cutters (great from a grounder-to-fly ratio, but lacked whiff potential for him) and curves for sliders, changeups and mixed in more elite sinkers – all great pitches for Mejia that induce whiffs over 30+% of the time. (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: Jenrry Mejia has a very successful season of almost 30 saves under his belt, and he will only be 25 in 2015. Even if manager Terry Collins might want Parnell to be the closer when he returns, by the end of the season Mejia should take the role back.

Mark Melancon

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 3/28/1985 | Team: Pirates | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 2 16 71 8.9 1.0 0.1 1.39 0.96 1.64 2.6 2.4
’14 3 5 33 71 9.0 1.4 0.3 1.90 0.87 2.09 2.7 1.9
’15 4 3 35 65 8.4 1.7 0.5 2.64 1.10 2.67 0.8 0.8

Profile: Entering last season as the set up man after a solid season in the same role the year before, Melancon took advantage of Jason Grilli’s struggles and became a very valuable closer for a majority of the season. The good part is that Melancon repeated his stellar 2013 campaign. The bad part is that Grilli was coming off an amazing season himself — but his leash proved short after he blew four saves. Tony Watson is a stellar reliever as well, and if Melancon struggles, Watson would be next in line. Melancon has turned from a pitcher just barely above replacement level to one of the top relievers in the game, so draft him with confidence. But know that he has struggled before, and if he were to do so again he could be removed from his role. When it comes to drafting closers, having a choke hold lock on the role is the most important attribute, and while Melancon clearly has the stuff and two years worth of data to show that he can be a top tier pitcher, the Pirates’ quick hook with his predecessor is somewhat of a caution sign. Even so, odds are Melancon pitches very well and maintains his closer spot. You likely will not need a handcuff, but if you have an roster space getting Tony Watson would be wise. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Melancon put together his second elite season in Pittsburgh, this time as the team’s closer. He walked just 11 batters all season and has the stuff to be a top tier closer. Be cautious since the Pirates had quick hook with Jason Grilli, but odds are you will be happy to have Melancon on your team.

Wade Miley

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 11/13/1986 | Team: Red Sox | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 10 0 202 6.5 2.9 0.9 3.55 1.32 3.98 3.0 1.9
’14 8 12 0 201 8.2 3.4 1.0 4.34 1.40 3.98 1.2 1.7
’15 12 9 0 173 7.0 3.0 0.9 4.20 1.35 3.98 1.6 2.0

Profile: Miley was a favorite sleeper of mine headed into 2014, but he just could never put it all together, even if the peripherals were decent. His 8.2 strikeouts per nine rate ended up in the top quarter of starting pitchers — surrounded in the rankings by names such as Ervin Santana, Jordan Zimmermann, and Alex Cobb. His 51% ground-ball rate was way above the league average. His 3.4 walks per nine could go down, but his biggest issue for 2014 was what happened when the ball was put into play. He had a .317 batting average on balls in play, which led to an ERA almost a half a run better than his FIP. The other issue were the homers. His one homer per nine innings was high considering his ground-ball tendencies. His home run issue occurred at home, where his HR/9 was 1.7 — he only gave up 0.4 on the road. It will be interesting to see how the move to Boston affects his home run numbers. As long as he is healthy, 2014 was the downside for Miley. He could see some batted ball improvements (HR and BABIP) which could help him with his ERA, WHIP and wins. Look to pay for 2014 production, and if he does better, it will just be surplus value. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Wade Miley showed signs of being good in 2014, but never put it all together. Watch to see how the move to Boston affects his production — even though he’s moving to the American League, it’s not all bad news. 

Shelby Miller

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 10/10/1990 | Team: Braves | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 15 9 0 173 8.8 3.0 1.0 3.06 1.21 3.67 3.3 2.2
’14 10 9 0 183 6.2 3.6 1.1 3.74 1.27 4.54 2.2 0.2
’15 9 12 0 173 8.0 3.3 1.1 4.15 1.33 4.21 0.9 1.0

Profile: For Miller to rebound in 2015, he needs to re-find his curveball. Despite a constant fastball velocity from 2012 to 2014, his strikeout rate still dropped from 8.9 in 2012-2013 (only 13 innings pitched in 2012) to 6.3 in 2014. The main reason for the decline in punchouts is his that his curve now gets a below average amount of ground balls and swinging strikes. If he had not developed a home run prone cutter, he would be a one pitch pitcher with a good fastball. Unfortunately his walks are headed in a bad direction, too, as he’s slid from 2.9 walks per nine (’12-’13) to 3.6 BB/9 in 2014. If one positive exists, it is that his walk rate did improve in the second half last year (4.46 to 2.31). All the struggles lead to a career high 3.74 ERA which was about a run less than his ERA estimators. It’s tough to pinpoint a 2015 projection for him in Atlanta after just a single year of decline. It’s tempting to value him with his ’14 line. If he regresses back to his ’13 production, great. If not, at least you didn’t overpay for him. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Shelby Miller is not going to get a needed boost by going the Braves. To get back to what he can be, he needs to improve both his strikeout and walk numbers. That’ll probably come from some combination of work on his command and his curve. 

Andrew Miller

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 5/21/1985 | Team: Yankees | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 2 0 30 14.1 5.0 0.9 2.64 1.37 3.05 0.4 0.4
’14 5 5 1 62 14.9 2.5 0.4 2.02 0.80 1.51 2.0 2.3
’15 4 2 10 65 12.2 3.0 0.7 2.37 1.03 2.51 1.4 1.2

Profile: The Yankees have a great lefty reliever for the next four years. In 2014, Andrew Miller reached another level. Using 60 innings pitched as a qualifier, he owned the single best strikeout and strikeout minus walk rates in all of baseball last year: 35.5 K%-BB%, which was 1.2% better than Sean Doolittle and almost 5% better than Wade Davis. Luck wasn’t a significant factor. His 2012 season backed up his .263 batting average on balls in play last year — same goes for his left on base rate and home run to fly ball ratio. In fact, based on the BABIP and HR/FB, we should consider his 2.64 ERA from 2013 UNLUCKY. Miller is an interesting cat. He relies on two pitches (fourseam and slider), yet he had the 20th lowest swing% in all of baseball last year (minimum 60 innings pitched). Most of the pitchers ahead of him on the list (C.J. Wilson had the #1 swing prevention rate) have a deeper repertoire or lack control. Of the pitchers that prevent swings the most, Miller owned the second-lowest walk rate (7.0%). His fastball is above average from a whiff/swing perspective. His slider on the other hand is elite: it had the sixth-best whiff per swing rate. (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: Miller’s success against righties will hinge on him remaining effective controlling and burying his slider .

Tommy Milone

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 2/16/1987 | Team: Twins | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 12 9 0 156 7.3 2.2 1.4 4.14 1.27 4.30 0.8 1.3
’14 6 4 0 118 5.7 2.8 1.2 4.19 1.40 4.69 0.6 0.4
’15 5 6 0 86 5.9 2.5 1.2 4.57 1.37 4.55 0.3 0.6

Profile: The left-handed Milone found himself squeezed out of the Oakland rotation picture after the team acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel last July, so he was flipped at the trade deadline to the Twins in the Sam Fuld deal. Milone, who will be 28 on opening day, fits the definition of a soft-tossing lefty: his average fastball velocity of 86.5 mph was the slowest among starters with at least 110 innings, and his changeup accounted for nearly a quarter of all the pitches he threw in 2014. As one might imagine, this means Milone doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, and his 14.5% strikeout rate last year was down more than three percentage points from his career mark entering the season. Unfortunately, the increased amount of contact against him hasn’t been offset by a diminished walk rate — he’s yielded free passes at an increasing clip each season since his 2011 debut, while his overall strike percentage has dropped each year. For a fly ball pitcher who allows home runs frequently, Milone is fortunate to have been bounced to Minnesota and its home run-suppressing Target Field, though he posted ugly numbers there in his three starts last year. More importantly, perhaps, is how he slots into what could be a crowded Twins rotation next year: Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana are locks, Ricky Nolasco has three years left on a $49 million contract, Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey could be in the mix, and promising hurlers Alex Meyer and Trevor May could compete for spots as well. Milone could have an advantage as the only southpaw in the group, but even with a full-time job, he won’t have much value unless he can reverse several disturbing trends. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Even with a rotation spot, Milone should be left for AL-only leagues.

Mike Minor

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 12/26/1987 | Team: Braves | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 13 9 0 204 8.0 2.0 1.0 3.21 1.09 3.37 3.7 3.5
’14 6 12 0 145 7.4 2.7 1.3 4.77 1.44 4.39 0.2 0.2
’15 9 11 0 173 7.5 2.6 1.2 4.06 1.28 4.09 1.1 0.9

Profile: Mike Minor became a different pitcher at the midway point of the 2012 season. At the time he was on the verge of being sent down to the minors, but some adjustments allowed him to dominate at the tail end of the 2012 season. He then put together a very impressive year in 2013. Unfortunately, right near New Year’s Day 2014, Minor had urethra surgery and was forced to put his offseason training regimen on hold. Once he was cleared to begin his training, Minor had a goal of being ready by the start of the season, but rushed himself and injured his shoulder in the process, which pushed his timeline back even further. It was a tumultuous offseason for Minor and it led to him having a down year after posting the best year of his career. Despite the struggles Minor had last year, he is entering his age-27 season and looks to be a decent buy-low candidate in fantasy this year. He should be able to be drafted as a back end starter so there is little risk in acquiring him and a good deal of upside if he reverts back to his 2013 ways. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Minor had a shoulder injury that pushed him back at the start of the year, and his struggles should allow him to be pretty low on the draft board this year. He looks like a decent buy low candidate with little risk and a good deal of upside.

Rafael Montero

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 10/17/1990 | Team: Mets | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 1 3 0 44 8.5 4.7 1.6 4.06 1.51 5.14 0.2 -0.3
’15 3 3 0 54 8.5 3.0 1.1 3.66 1.25 3.83 0.0 0.1

Profile: Montero works 90-94, hitting 95 mph with a slider and changeup that both flash solid average and play up due to his above average command. His slider is a little more advanced than his changeup, which he doesn’t always throw as often as he should. Montero is a flyball guy who needs to have good command to limit damage done via the home run, and will rely on high pop-up rates to do this and keep his rotation spot. Montero isn’t an upside play, but rather a close to ready-made number four starter that likely doesn’t break camp in the big league rotation. He’ll probably start in the bullpen, but be first to take an open rotation spot. (Kiley McDaniel)

Quick Opinion: Montero is close to a finished product, but has no spot in the team’s rotation right now. He’ll likely start out in the bullpen, but could be the first to get the call once an injury occurs.

Matt Moore

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 6/18/1989 | Team: Rays | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 17 4 0 150 8.6 4.5 0.8 3.29 1.30 3.95 3.0 1.8
’14 0 2 0 10 5.4 4.5 0.9 2.70 1.50 4.73 0.3 -0.0
’15 10 10 0 163 8.0 3.9 1.0 4.05 1.35 4.26 1.1 0.8

Profile: Hype has exceeded hope at this point of Matt Moore’s career. April 2014 Tommy John surgery was just the icing on that cake. All is far from lost, but the southpaw has a lot of work to do to convince that he’ll be a contributor in his age-26 campaign, which probably won’t begin in the majors until at least June. As a big leaguer, Moore has displayed four good pitches in terms of whiffs, with a couple of them useful for grounders, but inconsistent command and bad control have hurt his quest to achieve some semblance of a breakthrough statistically. Since TJS recoveries are somewhat unpredictable, and command and control are frequently problems for those coming back, he’s far from a good bet to contribute in 2015. Has the crowd’s love affair with him died? If so, then Moore is an interesting player to stash in deep leagues. It’s conceivable that he’ll produce meaningful numbers by the second half. If he costs more than flier rates, however, then there just aren’t enough reasons to chase him, mainly because there should be others who can do the same or better for fantasy owners. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Moore won’t be available to the Rays until sometime well after opening day, and recovery from Tommy John surgery could make his already unreliable command and control more elusive. He’s an interesting flier choice in deep redraft leagues – just not much more, if someone else is too eager.

Franklin Morales

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 1/24/1986 | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 2 0 25 7.5 5.3 0.7 4.62 1.54 4.55 0.1 0.1
’14 6 9 0 142 6.3 4.1 1.5 5.37 1.62 5.42 -0.1 -0.1
’15 8 10 0 144 6.4 3.9 1.1 4.70 1.45 4.75 0.0 0.2

Profile: We can look at it two ways: (1) Franklin Morales had a great 2014, starting a career-high 22 games. Or (2) Franklin Morales had a terrible year, hurling 142.1 innings of 5.37 ERA / 5.42 FIP ball. The correct perspective is probably the second. His strikeout rate was just about a career low and his walk rate was not great. Will Morales be fantasy useless again in 2015? Probably. Of course, pitching in Coors Fields did him no favors in 2014, but a change of venue is not likely to change his career 110 FIP-. Pretty much avoid Franklin Morales. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Franklin Morales is a toxic asset at this point. You probably don’t need him. An empty roster spot might be a better choice.

Mike Morin

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 5/3/1991 | Team: Angels | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 4 4 0 59 8.2 2.9 0.5 2.90 1.19 3.08 0.6 0.6
’15 2 2 0 45 8.0 2.6 0.9 3.45 1.22 3.62 0.2 0.1

Profile: The Angels’ rookie right-hander posted solid, albeit unspectacular skills, in his first taste of major league action. With two strong swing and miss secondary pitches in his slider and changeup, there is some strikeout rate upside if his fastball improves at all. Despite the starter’s arsenal, though, he’s never started a game in the pros. (Mike Podhorzer)

Bryan Morris

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 3/28/1987 | Team: Marlins | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 7 0 65 5.1 3.9 1.1 3.46 1.31 4.89 0.5 -1.1
’14 8 1 0 64 7.0 3.4 0.8 1.82 1.27 4.10 1.8 -0.4
’15 3 3 1 55 7.5 3.0 0.6 3.50 1.29 3.42 0.1 0.2

Profile: Mostly, Bryan Morris is ‘only’ a sinker/slider guy. Those two pitches made up 80% of what he threw last year, and they also both have the worst platoon splits in baseball. That’s about the end of the negative with Morris. Because boy does he have gas — his sinker went 95, his slider 90, both pitches are elite when it comes to grounders and whiffs, he got 14% whiffs overall, and 60% grounders overall. Oh, he also has decent command. And before we make too much of the arsenal’s short comings, we should note the second breaking ball. Call it a slow slider or a fast curveball, that breaker gets 17% whiffs against lefties in twice as much usage. In short, Morris has what it takes to be a closer. All he needs is for Steve Cishek to falter or be traded. Otherwise, he’ll make for great ratios, strikeouts, and holds — in leagues where that sort of thing matters. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Bryan Morris may need Steve Cishek to succumb to injury or be traded for a shot at saves. He’s a great long-term acquisition in keeper leagues, and a name to stash away, even in leagues where holds won’t matter.

Brandon Morrow

Debut: 2007 |  BirthDate: 7/26/1984 | Team: Padres | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 3 0 54 7.0 3.0 2.0 5.63 1.49 5.42 -0.5 -0.0
’14 1 3 0 33 8.1 4.9 0.5 5.67 1.65 3.73 -0.2 0.4
’15 7 8 0 125 8.1 3.1 0.9 4.01 1.29 3.77 0.1 0.4

Profile: Having thrown just 88 innings combined over the past two seasons, what comes next for Brandon Morrow is anybody’s guess. He could become a reliever in the Wade Davis model: a hard-thrower with the top flight stuff suited to a late-inning relief role. Health questions remain and Morrow’s past success a starter, along with some language in his new contract in San Diego, keeps that door open a crack. When he’s right, there aren’t many pitchers that matched Morrow’s swing-and-miss stuff and explosive fastball. But his results over the past two seasons — 5.65 ERA, 4.78 FIP, 18.5% strikeout rate, well below his career rate of 24.5% — don’t offer much encouragement. For the first time in his career, we was homer-prone (1.44 homers per nine innings). He was a much worse pitcher, in other words. His late-season cameo as a reliever offers a sliver of hope, as his fastball velocity bumped up to 97 mph in a tiny sample. With a clear role and extra attention given to his health, he might become a late-inning relief option. He closed before and just might find himself doing it again if he can’t stay healthy in San Diego. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: After losing nearly two full seasons to injury, the 30-year old Morrow heads to San Diego with an eye on a rotation spot. His floor, as a late-inning reliever, is just as decent as his upside. 

Charlie Morton

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 11/12/1983 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 4 0 116 6.6 2.8 0.5 3.26 1.28 3.60 1.3 1.3
’14 6 12 0 157 7.2 3.3 0.5 3.72 1.27 3.72 0.8 1.3
’15 3 3 0 48 6.7 3.0 0.6 3.89 1.34 3.74 0.3 0.4

Profile: Morton pitched like a solid number four last year, but unfortunately was not able to rack up many wins during his 26 start campaign. His peripherals align with his 3.72 ERA, which is similar to what his peripherals suggested he would be based off his 2013 season. We basically know what Morton is now — an innings eater four or five type starter who is more valuable to his real life team than he is in the fake game. Morton will enter the year with an injured hip, although latest reports suggest he believes he will be ready for opening day. However, even if he is healthy he will be competing for Jeff Locke for a rotation spot. Being injured is a pretty big disadvantage for Morton, and they could opt to bring him along slowly. With limited upside, an injury, and a non-guaranteed spot in the rotation, Morton is not someone you should be looking at in mixed leagues. Leave him on the waiver wire, use him in streaming formats, or wait until you need some reliability in the back end of your rotation if you are going to pick him up. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Morton is a pretty boring pitcher at this point in his career in fantasy baseball. He is a back end starter with limited upside, a current injury, and an uncertain role. Avoid him in standard formats.

Jason Motte

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 6/22/1982 | Team: Cubs | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 1 0 0 25 6.1 3.2 2.5 4.68 1.52 6.49 -0.2 -0.7
’15 3 3 4 55 8.0 2.5 1.0 3.63 1.23 3.74 0.2 0.0

Profile: Motte was one of the best closers in baseball in 2012, when he reached 42 saves while striking out 10.8 batters per nine. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery ended his 2013 season before it began, and when he finally made it back to the majors for a half-season in 2014, he had lost three miles per hour off his fastball and was striking out just 6.1 batters per nine. This offseason, he signed a one-year deal with the Cubs, who are thin and inexperienced in the back of their bullpen. Still, there is little reason to expect Motte can return to his previous elite form and so there is little reason to draft him in mixed league formats. (Scott Spratt)

Quick Opinion: Motte signed a one-year deal with the Cubs, but his diminished velocity and strikeout rates following Tommy John surgery do not provide much reason for optimism that he can return to his previous elite form.

Edward Mujica

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 5/10/1984 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 37 64 6.4 0.7 1.3 2.78 1.01 3.71 1.5 0.0
’14 2 4 8 60 6.4 2.1 0.9 3.90 1.38 3.70 0.2 0.4
’15 3 3 4 55 6.4 2.0 1.0 3.84 1.25 3.94 0.2 0.2

Profile: The long-standing belief with relief pitchers is that they are akin to fresh fruit — they’re only good for so long, and some are good for far less time than others. And that may be true. But some pitchers are a little more consistent than others. For seven of the past eight years, Edward Mujica has posted a FIP- in the narrow band between 93 and 105, and in the eighth year he was a bit better, at 82. In short, Mujica has been remarkably consistent. Now, consistent is not necessarily a synonym for good. After all, these are scores consistent with a league average reliever, and that is what Mujica has been. Actually, you could say he has been less than that. In his nine-year career, he has racked up just 2.05 WPA. He has, however, racked up a positive WPA in each of the last four seasons. It would appear as though he has figured some things out. Unfortunately, his new path to effectiveness is unlikely to help your fantasy team. He strikes out batters at a clip that is well below average — of the 67 relievers who have tossed at least 200 innings since 2011, Mujica’s 18.7% strikeout rate ranks just 55th. His strikeout minus walk rate is a more encouraging 33rd, but the bottom line is that his WHIP won’t be exemplary enough for it to be an asset on your team. Looking at the magical save, we see that over the past two seasons, Edward Mujica has racked up 45 saves. So he is clearly capable of holding down the role. But one of those seasons was not spent with his current employer, the Boston Red Sox, and with Koji Uehara back for another go-round in Boston, Mujica’s chances will likely be limited. He may see chances if Uehara goes down for any length of time, but even his assignment to the role last year was curious — he only ended up racking up three holds and wasn’t used like a potential closer. That output may increase now that Andrew Miller and Burke Badenhop are gone, but you probably can’t count on him to contribute much in either the saves or holds department. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: Edward Mujica is a reliably serviceable relief pitcher, but given that he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, and is not often trusted with high-leverage roles, he is probably a pitcher you should avoid on draft day.

Joe Nathan

Debut: 1999 |  BirthDate: 11/22/1974 | Team: Tigers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 6 2 43 64 10.2 3.1 0.3 1.39 0.90 2.26 3.5 2.5
’14 5 4 35 58 8.4 4.5 0.8 4.81 1.53 3.94 -0.5 0.2
’15 3 3 26 65 8.0 3.0 1.0 3.67 1.26 3.87 0.3 0.2

Profile: Has Father Time finally caught Joe Nathan? The righty reliever did not fare well in his first season in Motown as the Tigers closer. Things got so bad that the owner of 376 saves was semi-relieved of stopper duties late in the season and he felt the need to trade chin flicks with some of Detroit’s finest. While his near-five ERA was slightly unlucky by defense independent metrics, his fastball velocity ticked down again for the third straight year and his strikeout rate dropped by nearly 10%. With a walk rate in the double digits, there should be real concern that he’s rapidly nearing the end of the line. At 40, he’s not getting any younger, and while the Tigers continue to publicly say he’ll take on a significant role in his second year in Detroit, support seems tepid. He could be a worthwhile gamble as a warm body if he stays in the closer role this spring, but he seems unlikely to fall enough in draft to make that roll of the dice worthwhile. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: The wheels really came off for Nathan in 2014. Declining fastball velocity led to a corresponding cratering of strikeout rate, inflating his ERA in the process. Now 40 and with the risk of facing a lower-leverage bullpen role in 2015, the righty is a risky gamble. Let someone else overpay banking on Joe Nathan of seasons past returning.

Jimmy Nelson

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 6/5/1989 | Team: Brewers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 10 7.2 4.5 0.0 0.90 0.70 2.95 0.4 0.1
’14 2 9 0 69 7.4 2.5 0.8 4.93 1.46 3.78 -0.3 0.8
’15 10 11 0 173 7.8 3.6 1.0 4.38 1.38 4.22 0.2 0.7

Profile: Jimmy Nelson enters 2015 as the sixth man on the starting pitcher totem pole in Milwaukee — barring an injury, he’ll likely open the year in the minors. FIP suggests the right-hander’s 4.93 ERA was about a run too high so there is reason for optimism with the young pitcher. He has a solid repertoire, sturdy build and limited the walks during his rookie season. He needs to improve the command of his fastball, especially considering he’s more or less a two-pitch starter with the use of his changeup coming in around 2-3%. Nelson is a great player to target in keeper leagues but, given an opportunity, could be a solid performer in NL-only leagues with an eye towards becoming mixed-league relevant in 2016. (Marc Hulet)

Quick Opinion: Nelson doesn’t have a clear path to an opening day roster spot, which means he’s more likely to be relevant in the second half of the season. His success in 2015 will rely on improved command of his fastball, and perhaps a more reliable third pitch. He may not be mixed league relevant until 2016.

Pat Neshek

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 9/4/1980 | Team: Astros | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 0 40 6.5 3.3 1.3 3.35 1.36 4.66 0.2 -0.2
’14 7 2 6 67 9.1 1.2 0.5 1.87 0.79 2.37 2.4 1.8
’15 3 3 4 65 8.3 2.2 1.3 3.45 1.18 3.97 0.5 0.2

Profile: 33 year old Pat Neshek had a fantastic comeback season for the Cardinals last year, helping fantasy teams with excellent ratios (1.87 ERA/0.79 WHIP) and throwing in seven wins and six saves as well. The Houston Astros picked him up this offseason but he will still likely remain in a setup role — they also picked up Luke Gregerson and also have Chad Qualls on board. Neshek’s .233 batting average on balls in play and 83.0% strand rate aren’t sustainable in 2015 but he should still throw a lot of high leverage innings, strike out a batter an inning, and help your ratios. Neshek’s delivery and release point would seemingly lend himself to be a righty specialist but he still had a 3.02 FIP and .233 weighted on base average against left handed hitters. Neshek’s 2014 performance and two-year $12.5 million deal this offseason proves he’s more than just a specialist, and without impressive talent ahead of him in the Astros pen, he could even sniff a few save opportunities along the way. (Ben Pasinkoff)

Quick Opinion: As a 33-year-old multi-year free agent reliever acquisition that might not close, Pat Neshek was funky before you saw him throw a pitch. He doesn’t really profile as a closer by velocity, but he’s got as good a chance at saves anyone in that pen. 

Juan Nicasio

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 8/31/1986 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 9 0 157 6.8 3.7 1.0 5.14 1.47 4.25 0.5 2.3
’14 6 6 0 93 6.1 3.0 1.8 5.38 1.47 5.45 -0.1 -0.1
’15 5 4 1 83 7.3 2.7 1.0 3.78 1.26 3.91 -0.1 -0.2

Profile: Nicasio will be making quite the home-town leap in 2015 — changing from Coors Field to Dodger Stadium. That’s a jump from a 117 run environment by park factors (highest in the league) to a 96 run environment (sixth lowest in the league). So when Steamer puts forth a 3.79 ERA estimation for a pitcher with a career 5.03 ERA, I suspect Nicasio might hit that mark on park adjustments alone. Add in that Steamer is expecting him to pitch in relief, and maybe the numbers are even a little high. In 2014, Juan twirled 20.2 innings in relief, and during that time, he managed a 3.48 ERA and 3.59 xFIP. Perhaps that’s what piqued the interest of Dodgers GM Andrew Friedman, who established a routine of turning castoff pitchers into strong relievers on the cheap in Tampa Bay. It’s possible Nicasio still has a few starts left in him, but at this point, fantasy owners should not consider him anything but a possible waiver wire addition to the bullpen — if’n his 2014 relief success translates to LA. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: His starting days may be over, but Nicasio showed some promise as a reliever in 2014 — at Coors Field, no less. It’s unlikely he’ll ascend high enough to snare some saves from the Dodger bullpen; still, he might be worth some waiver wire activity if you need the innings.

Jon Niese

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 10/27/1986 | Team: Mets | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 8 8 0 143 6.6 3.0 0.6 3.71 1.44 3.58 0.8 1.5
’14 9 11 0 187 6.6 2.2 0.8 3.40 1.27 3.67 2.0 1.6
’15 10 11 0 173 6.5 2.5 0.9 4.09 1.31 3.93 0.5 0.9

Profile: Niese has yet to log 200 innings pitched in a season, even though he started 30 games in 2014 for the third time in his career. Outside of his ERA, it’s difficult to find a positive trend in his peripherals. Several things that can portend a pitcher’s demise have been trending the wrong way for Niese over the last four years, including fastball velocity, swinging strike rate, and infield fly rate, all of which have decreased steadily, while his line drive rate allowed has increased. He burns worms at an above average rate, but not to the extent that he can rely solely on ground ball frequency to limit damage. Niese throws a lot of strikes and issues few free passes, but he just doesn’t offer much upside in any of the traditional fantasy stats to get excited about. He might be worth streaming when he starts at home and has a decent matchup, but who isn’t these days. (Robert J. Baumann)

Quick Opinion: Niese showed signs of being a solid fantasy starter in the past, and he’s still relatively young. But many of his peripherals have long been trending the wrong way, and he now projects as the fifth or sixth best starter on his own team.

Hector Noesi

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 1/26/1987 | Team: White Sox | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 0 27 6.9 4.0 1.0 6.59 1.98 4.36 -0.4 0.0
’14 8 12 0 172 6.4 2.9 1.5 4.75 1.37 4.83 0.5 0.5
’15 7 10 0 144 6.3 3.2 1.5 5.05 1.43 5.03 0.0 0.2

Profile: Noesi had his best major league season in 2014, though for a guy owning a career 0.1 wins above replacement, that might not be saying much. First traded from the Mariners to the Rangers in the second week of April, then claimed off waivers by the White Sox just two weeks later, Noesi made 27 starts in Chicago, posting a 4.43 ERA (4.88 FIP) with a below average strikeout rate. Of course, it’s hard to have positive results in baseball when you’re constantly turning around to watch balls fly out of the yard, an event that occurred 28 times for Noesi — the most in baseball. For a fly ball pitcher with a historically high home-run-to-fly-ball rate, Noesi wasn’t helped by his move to U.S. Cellular Field, the fourth-deadliest park for home runs this year — he surrendered long balls at a pace of about one every 5.4 innings there. Things improved slightly for Noesi in the second half, when a decision to ditch his sinker for more four-seam fastballs helped him lower his walk rate to 5.8% and post quality starts in nine out of 13 appearances, but he still posted a 4.92 FIP in that span and continued to cough up home runs at an alarming rate. Noesi was arbitration eligible entering the 2015 season, and the White Sox indicated that they were open to bringing him back as a starter, but even with a rotation role, he doesn’t offer enough value to make him a viable mixed league option in all but the deepest of formats. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Even at his best, Noesi’s inconsistency and lack of strikeouts significantly curtails his fantasy value.

Ricky Nolasco

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 12/13/1982 | Team: Twins | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 13 11 0 199 7.4 2.1 0.8 3.70 1.21 3.34 2.0 3.1
’14 6 12 0 159 6.5 2.2 1.2 5.38 1.52 4.30 -0.3 1.2
’15 10 11 0 173 6.3 2.2 1.1 4.55 1.33 4.18 0.7 1.5

Profile: Nothing went well for Nolasco in his maiden voyage to a new league. Like literally — nothing. His strikeouts tumbled a bit, but that’s to be expected. His walks remained relatively stable. But the WHIP went through the roof, to a coronary-inducing 1.52. When that’s on the strength of hits, and hits alone, that’s troublesome. Nolasco’s fastball has always been hittable, and 2014 was no different, as opponents feasted to the tune of a .337/.386/.586 line on Ricky’s heat. Worse yet was that his previously reliable slider — .572 OPS against in 2013 — was also battered to the tune of a .301/.326/.491 line, leaving Nolasco and the Twins without answers. They’ll need to find them fast, as Nolasco is inked through 2017 at $12 million per year. Nolasco needs to rebound to hold off fast-charging youngsters, or at the very least maintain value so he can be moved in the future if that’s what the Twins decide is best. One dynamic to watch will be how Nolasco works with new pitching coach Neil Allen, who is coming over from Tampa Bay. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: Nolasco can’t possibly be as bad as he was last year with the Twins, but until he shows he isn’t, it might be best to just stay away.

Sean Nolin

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 12/26/1989 | Team: Athletics | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 0 1 0.0 6.8 6.8 40.50 6.00 15.05 -0.4 -0.1
’14 0 0 0 1 0.0 0.0 9.0 9.00 1.00 16.13 -0.0 -0.1
’15 2 2 0 34 7.2 3.5 1.0 4.08 1.36 4.24 -0.1 -0.1

Profile: There is nothing a lefty with iffy stuff likes to hear more than “you’ve been traded to Oakland.” Sean Nolin heard that sweet music in his ears this winter, moving to the A’s as a part of the Josh Donaldson trade. The Coliseum is a near-ideal fit for this big left-hander known for his straight fastball and decent change, to say nothing of his fly ball profile. He’s the kind of pitcher the A’s target, but is there room for him at the big league level? There are a whole lot of names on the A’s pitching depth chart, though the nature of 21st century pitching suggests he’ll have his chances at the big league level, perhaps even as a reliever. Oakland has a knack for ringing value from pitchers like Nolin, and perhaps they can mold him at Triple-A in a way that better prepares him fro the rigors of big league life. His numbers get a little worse with every new rung on the ladder he climbs, can Oakland help him bridge the largest of gaps? Some mechanical tweaks to add an extra tick of velocity could make a huge difference. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: The A’s grab another fly ball lefty in Sean Nolin. Can they work their magic and make him a realistic backend starter?

Bud Norris

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 3/2/1985 | Team: Orioles | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 10 12 0 176 7.5 3.4 0.9 4.18 1.49 3.86 1.7 2.7
’14 15 8 0 165 7.6 2.8 1.1 3.65 1.22 4.22 3.1 1.5
’15 8 7 0 125 7.7 3.1 1.2 4.06 1.30 4.34 1.3 1.0

Profile: Many have called 2014 a breakout season for Bud Norris, as he amassed a career high 15 wins and managed a career low 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. But it doesn’t take a whole lot of drilling down to see that if you liked Bud Norris last year, then you probably should have liked Bud Norris the Astro. His career FIP sits at 4.13 and his 2014 campaign registered a 4.22 FIP — and while he did manage to walk fewer batters in Oriole orange than his career would predict, he also posted a fairly pedestrian strikeout rate of 20.2%. Still, it’s worth noting that he had a pretty fantastic second half to the season, posting a 3.27 ERA (3.59 FIP) with almost a 25% strikeout rate while holding opponents to a .247/.314/.390 slash line. Some of this success might be attributable to increased confidence in and effectiveness from his changeup, which had been torched in the recent past. In 2014, it was his second-best pitch by way of pitch values, and provided him with a solid option versus left-handed batters where there historically wasn’t much in his bag of tricks. Norris also flashed the fastball he had as a rookie, with his average fastball sitting at 93.4 mph, a four-year high — and in fact, his last start of the year averaged almost 95 mph. Because of the velocity, command, and reconstituted changeup, he enters 2015 as a curious candidate for your squad who won’t likely cost much in dollars or rounds. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: Bud Norris enjoyed one of his better seasons as a major leaguer, but the most encouraging part of his year was the particularly strong second half where he found his fastball and ultimately found more strikeouts. It’s hard to rely on season splits, but if second half Norris comes out of the gate in April, you’ll be wishing you had him on your squad.

Ivan Nova

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 1/12/1987 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 6 0 139 7.5 2.8 0.6 3.10 1.28 3.47 3.7 2.5
’14 2 2 0 20 5.2 2.6 2.6 8.27 1.84 6.91 -0.6 -0.4
’15 7 7 0 115 6.9 2.8 1.0 4.16 1.30 4.16 1.0 1.1

Profile: Nova was among the first starting rotation casualties of the Yankees’ 2014 season, making only four starts before going down with an elbow injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. That was too bad, because the 28-year-old right-hander has developed into a solid major league starter who has improved throughout his career. Entering 2014, Nova’s walk rate had decreased each season, and what was a career 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings at the end of 2011 is now 6.8. Much of the credit can be ascribed to Nova ditching his slider in favor of his curveball, which had a 16.6% whiff rate in 2013 and became his go-to pitch with two strikes against both right- and left-handed hitters. No matter his pitch selection, however, he’s retained his ability to keep the ball on the ground, a crucial attribute given Yankee Stadium’s homer-happy dimensions. Nova won’t return until at least mid-May, and it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be coming off major surgery, but the Yankees, likely to be starved for dependable starting pitching in 2015, won’t hesitate to hand him back a rotation gig upon his return. Some fantasy owners may look past Nova on draft day given his lost 2014 campaign, a possible innings limit post-TJ surgery and his uninspiring career stat line, but Nova offers value at a likely discount. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: We’ll see how Nova fares coming off surgery, but he seems like a safe candidate to outearn his draft day price tag as a solid depth arm.

Vidal Nuno

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 7/26/1987 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 2 0 20 4.1 2.7 0.9 2.25 1.10 4.50 0.7 0.2
’14 2 12 0 161 7.2 2.6 1.4 4.56 1.26 4.51 0.7 0.9
’15 4 4 0 73 7.5 2.5 1.2 3.83 1.24 4.08 0.5 0.2

Profile: Nuno was punished in his 17 appearances (14 starts) as a Yankee in 2014, and found even less luck upon being traded to the Diamondbacks in early July, going 0-7 for them despite pitching decently (3.90 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings) in 14 starts. Considering the teams’ home ballparks, it comes as little surprise that Nuno, a fly ball pitcher, often fell victim to the long ball; the 1.39 home runs he allowed per nine innings was third-most among starters with at least 160 innings pitched. Nuno doesn’t throw hard — his average fastball velocity is just above 89 mph — but he throws strikes, and saw his first-pitch strike percentage jump to a lofty 68.8% upon moving to Arizona, which helped him shave his walk rate by nearly two percentage points. As for the putrid record, well, Nuno — who allowed two earned runs or less in nine of his 14 starts — would have picked up more wins had the Diamondbacks’ punchless offense delivered more than 2.8 runs on average in his starts. It’s not clear how he fits into the Diamondbacks’ rotation plans; Jeremy Hellickson and Josh Collmenter are locks, with Trevor Cahill, Daniel Hudson, Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa, Randall Delgado and Chase Anderson all in the mix for starting roles, with Patrick Corbin and Bronson Arroyo also to return from injury later in the year. And that’s before the name Archie Bradley is mentioned. That’s a lot of names for Nuno to climb over, but he certainly earned the right to prove that he’s better than his 2014 record in Arizona might have one believe. (Karl de Vries

Quick Opinion: Nuno doesn’t do anything flashy, but he probably won’t hurt owners in any particular category, making him an option for NL-only formats if he can snag a rotation spot.

Darren O’Day

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 10/22/1982 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 5 3 2 62 8.6 2.2 1.0 2.18 1.00 3.58 2.0 0.7
’14 5 2 4 68 9.6 2.5 0.8 1.70 0.89 3.32 2.7 0.9
’15 4 3 2 65 8.7 2.4 1.1 3.13 1.14 3.67 0.7 0.4

Profile: Would you believe O’Day has the lowest ERA among relievers who have thrown at least 300 innings over the past six seasons? Well believe it, as the sidearming righty has put together a 2.18 ERA over that span, far better than Joaquin Benoit, who checks in at number two on the list with a 2.35 mark. O’Day’s velocity spiked at a career-best 87.6 mph on his fastball this past year, but despite never really lighting up the radar gun, the righty had fanned at least a batter an inning in three of the past four seasons. O’Day does have some trouble with left-handed hitters — as most sidearmers do — but mostly it’s just relative, as over his career he’s given up a .715 OPS to left-handed hitters and just a .548 mark to righties. O’Day doesn’t appear to have a short path to saves in Baltimore, but did finish ninth across the MLB in holds. He should hold value in those types of leagues. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: This sidearmer finds favor in deeper leagues that favor holds. In saves leagues, he might need a rash of injuries to find relevance.

Eric O’Flaherty

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 2/5/1985 | Team: Athletics | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 0 0 18 5.5 2.5 1.0 2.50 0.94 4.10 0.5 -0.1
’14 1 0 1 20 6.8 1.8 1.4 2.25 0.95 4.48 0.4 -0.1
’15 2 2 0 35 6.9 2.7 0.7 3.50 1.27 3.68 0.2 0.2

Profile: After coming back from Tommy John surgery, Eric O’Flaherty managed just 20 innings pitched last season. The good news is that TJS isn’t an automatic career ender, but serious questions still loom about his ability to remain an effect reliever. O’Flaherty surrendered just four walks in his microscopic sample size last season, however he did hit two batters. Owner of a career 3.05 walks per nine, he hasn’t allowed more than three walks per nine on average since 2010, totaling 169 innings of strong control. While he is a lefty, O’Flaherty’s fastball velocity has been dipping for four straight years. Again sample size is important to remember, but last season saw his heater average less than 90 mph. With Sean Doolittle firmly entrenched as the Oakland A’s closer, expect O’Flaherty to be the go-to left-handed option in the bullpen for late inning matchups. Fernando Abad is another southpaw in the bullpen, however O’Flaherty owns a lower weighted offense against for both left-handed hitters and righties than Abad. In his peak, O’Flaherty gathered 60 holds between 2011 and 2012. He could be a source of very cheap holds and, as with any reliever, the occasional vulture win. (David Wiers)

Quick Opinion: Count on O’Flaherty being tabbed as the top left-handed option in the A’s bullpen, other than the closer Doolittle. If he settles into a similar role as one he played in Atlanta, 20+ holds with solid ratios is attainable.

Brett Oberholtzer

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 7/1/1989 | Team: Astros | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 5 0 71 5.7 1.6 0.9 2.76 1.10 3.65 1.9 1.3
’14 5 13 0 143 5.9 1.8 0.8 4.39 1.38 3.56 1.0 2.4
’15 9 11 0 163 6.0 2.3 1.4 4.61 1.34 4.64 0.5 0.6

Profile: Brett Oberholtzer has one above-average pitch: a changeup that works better against left-handed hitters. He is downright bad against righties (8.6% strikeouts minus walks, 12% is average; 4.57 xFIP). Ideally (for his outcomes), he would be a left-hand specialist out of the Astros’ bullpen who prevents damage based on his homerun prevention and command (excellent 4.5% career walk rate). (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: The Astros only have three established and effective starters at the moment, and Brad Peacock could miss time early on after hip surgery, so Oberholtzer might be guaranteed a spot in Astros’ rotation until they commit to emerging starters. With little-to-no potential for strikeouts or an ERA south of 4.00, he should not consume a spot on even your deepest AL-only rosters.

Jake Odorizzi

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 3/27/1990 | Team: Rays | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 1 29 6.7 2.4 0.9 3.94 1.21 3.89 0.3 0.3
’14 11 13 0 168 9.3 3.2 1.1 4.12 1.28 3.75 1.4 2.0
’15 10 10 0 173 8.1 3.2 1.3 4.00 1.30 4.34 1.4 0.8

Profile: After much of his prospect shine wore off in the upper levels of the Royals’ farm system, Jake Odorizzi established himself as a legit big league starter with a little help from Tampa Bay Rays magic. The righty featured his new split-change much more in 2014, which helped him improve against right-handed batters. He is as extreme a fly ball pitcher as exists in the game right now, which isn’t surprising for a pitcher who works up in the zone with a fastball that isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. The home runs will come, but, with some improvements in his command, Odorizzi can work up and down and use spacious Tropicana Field to his advantage. Entering his age-25 season, Odorizzi looks like a pitcher learning as he goes, tweaking his pitch selection to yield better results and work best with what he has. Shortening up his slider and using the split-change can only help his fastball and curveball, and that means good things for his numbers on the whole. Until the league shows they can take advantage of his propensity to work the top of the strike zone, let Odorizzi’s improvements speak for themselves through his ERA. 2015 is his chance to put it all together and put that process into action. (Drew Fairservice)

Quick Opinion: With an unconventional desire to work up in the zone and an ever-changing pitch selection, Jake Odorizzi is a tough one to pin down. There is lots to like about his 2014 and his 2015 looks bright indeed.

Alexi Ogando

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 10/5/1983 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 4 0 104 6.2 3.5 0.9 3.11 1.23 4.36 2.7 1.2
’14 2 3 1 25 7.9 5.4 0.4 6.84 1.92 3.81 -0.6 0.1
’15 2 1 0 30 7.6 2.8 1.0 3.75 1.28 4.02 0.1 0.1

Profile: After starting in 2013, Ogando was back to the bullpen in 2014, and his return did not go exactly as planned. Even after heading back to throwing shorter outings, Ogando’s velocity did not revert to his 2012 form, and the right-hander dealt with some serious command problems while giving up hits at an alarming rates. Ogando’s WHIP should improve quite a bit with some better luck on batted balls, but entering his age-31 season, the velocity loss is likely permanent. Without a changeup to help subdue lefties, Ogando is now best suited for middle relief. Unless Ogando can get his fastball back up to 95-96 mph, his fantasy role will be involved him being buried deep in the waiver wire. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Ogando returned to the bullpen last year, but his velocity didn’t return with him. The 31-year-old shouldn’t be in line for saves, so steer clear.

Logan Ondrusek

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 2/13/1985 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 1 0 55 8.7 2.6 1.3 4.09 1.25 3.94 -0.0 -0.1
’14 3 3 0 41 9.2 3.5 1.1 5.49 1.61 3.91 -0.7 -0.1
’15 0 0 0 1 8.0 2.9 1.1 3.72 1.25 3.95 0.1 -0.0

Profile: Trying to figure out how to pronounce Ondrusek’s name is much more difficult than figuring out whether he’s relevant in anything other than reliever-only fantasy leagues. He’s tall, though! (Brett Talley)

Dan Otero

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 2/19/1985 | Team: Athletics | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 0 0 39 6.2 1.4 0.0 1.38 1.23 2.12 1.2 0.8
’14 8 2 1 86 4.7 1.6 0.4 2.28 1.10 3.28 2.2 0.7
’15 3 3 2 55 5.5 1.9 0.7 3.62 1.27 3.62 0.1 0.1

Profile: Though Dan Otero owns a career 2.35 ERA in 138 innings, you can be forgiven if you’ve never heard of him. His skillset of “not many strikeouts and even fewer walks” has worked for him thus far, however his ERA estimators don’t believe in his shiny sub-2.50 earned run prevention rate. Otero is a ground-ball pitcher — he owns a career 57.3% ground-ball rate — and has allowed a mere four home runs in his career. His 2.38 ERA last year doesn’t quite match up with his 3.48 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA, but if Otero pitches to those number he could still have value. Appearing in a career-high 72 games and hurling the third-most innings by a reliever in baseball (86.2 innings), Otero may not have a ton of quality innings as far as strikeouts go, but his rate stats are great. With his impressive surface rate stats, it is possible he’ll earn a more high leverage role Oakland’s bullpen. Even though he led the team in bullpen innings by 14.1 innings, he accounted for just 12 holds. That did rank second on the team and his 22 shutdowns were the third most for an Oakland reliever. (David Wiers)

Quick Opinion: Otero may not do much for raw strikeout or strikeout percentage leagues, but he has real value in formats where strikeout to walk ratios matter. He should grab double-digit holds while keeping a low ERA thanks to his ground ball tendencies and his strong — though likely unsustainable — home run rate.

Adam Ottavino

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 11/22/1985 | Team: Rockies | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 3 0 78 9.0 3.6 0.6 2.64 1.33 3.15 1.6 1.3
’14 1 4 1 65 9.7 2.2 0.8 3.60 1.28 3.10 1.1 1.3
’15 3 2 2 55 9.4 2.8 0.9 3.38 1.21 3.31 0.6 0.7

Profile: Ottavino was better in 2014 than he was the year before, and took a step closer to being fantasy relevant someday — but you might not know it from looking at his numbers. His ERA increased by almost a full run, he blew five saves, and he threw fewer innings. The ERA rising was the result of bad luck on balls in play and some regression in homers allowed. He blew five saves because he had a bizarrely terrible month of June despite dominating the rest of the year. And he threw fewer innings just because he was used more in more late inning, high leverage situations as opposed to being used for more than three outs earlier in games. Hopefully the Rockies continue to use him in those situations because it might lead to him being considered in the ninth inning at some point. The closer situation in Colorado is anything but certain, so it’s possible Ottavino gets a shot at the job at some point in 2015. (Brett Talley)

Quick Opinion: It would be no surprise if multiple pitchers get a shot at closing in Denver at some point in 2015. Ottavino is a dominant reliever who deserves a chance.

Josh Outman

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 9/14/1984 | Team: Braves | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 0 0 54 8.8 3.8 0.5 4.33 1.46 3.25 0.2 0.7
’14 4 0 0 28 8.3 5.1 1.3 2.86 1.41 4.83 0.3 -0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 7.4 3.5 0.9 3.90 1.33 4.12 -0.0 -0.0

Profile: Outman’s inability to harness the strike zone has been a problem of late. One that is amplified by his inability to put right-handed batters away, if and when he does get ahead. After becoming a LOOGY in 2013, he was effective, and that carried over into 2014, albeit in a limited sample size. Right-handed hitters still torched him, though, posting a .403 weighted on-base average, and only striking out 19% of the time while garnering a free pass in 15% of their at-bats. That’s not going to work. In theory, Josh Outman shouldn’t ever face a right-handed batter, especially in a high leverage situation. After being designated for assignment in late September, it remains to be seen if Outman will be able to get another shot in the big leagues. Unless he’s able to throw some more strikes, it might not matter. (Landon Jones)

Quick Opinion: Certain pitching coaches have been able to rein in pitchers in the past, but it remains to be seen if one can work any magic with Outman. Without improved command, he won’t make much of an impact going forward.

Juan Oviedo

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 3/15/1982 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 3 3 1 31 7.4 4.5 0.9 3.69 1.36 4.52 0.1 -0.2
’15 1 1 0 15 7.6 3.0 1.3 4.09 1.33 4.40 0.1 0.0

Profile: Juan Carlos Oviedo has had a balky elbow ever since his Tommy John surgery at the end of 2012 and actually spent more than a calendar year on the shelf with the Tampa Rays before he ever threw a pitch for them. He came out of the 2014 gate slowly, but put together a pretty solid May and June, compiling a 1.88 ERA over 24 innings pitched, mostly fueled by a .161 average on balls in play. He had one horrific relief appearance in August and was summarily kicked to the curb and never caught on with another team. He’s now in the Dominican Winter League trying to hit the restart button. His velocity was off significantly last year, which is probably to be expected, but if it doesn’t return and he can’t muster better command than the unseemly 11.4% walk rate last year, he might just be staying in the Dominican. Needless to say, he’s highly unlikely to positively contribute to your fantasy squad. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: Rebranded as Juan Carlos Oviedo, the former Marlins closer Leo Nunez isn’t likely to help your fantasy squad much, and it’s possible he doesn’t find a major league gig at all in 2015.





 

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