2015 Pitcher Profiles: U – Z

by
February 9, 2015

Koji Uehara

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 4/3/1975 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 1 21 74 12.2 1.1 0.6 1.09 0.57 1.61 3.8 3.3
’14 6 5 26 64 11.2 1.1 1.4 2.52 0.92 3.09 2.2 1.4
’15 4 2 32 65 9.9 1.5 0.9 2.33 0.99 2.87 1.4 1.1

Profile: Entering his age 39 season as a bonafide closer for the first time in his career, Koji Uehara’s body of work from 2014 looks remarkably similar to the elite marks he put up in 2013. His strikeout rate fell a few points, but he managed to shave a hair off his already ridiculous 3% walk rate. His swinging strike percentages actually climbed, too. Even though he lost a little over a mph on his already-sub-90-mph fastball, his bread-and-butter splitter could still carry the load. Cracks began to appear in the foundation late in the year, however. His second half FIP was a less sexy 3.86, driven in large part by a jump to nearly two homers per nine innings. While some of this may have just been unfortunate luck, Boston felt the struggles were real enough to “relieve” him from his closer duties late in the year once they exited the playoff hunt. The Red Sox resigned Uehara to a two-year deal, and he’ll almost certainly return as their main ninth inning man. There is still reason to draft Uehara among the top 15 or so closers, but the potential of his late season regression sticking around needs to be baked into his projections. He seems like a prime candidate to be overdrafted on name value and the whole of his 2014 numbers. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: For the first time in his career, Koji Uehara headed into a season as a full-time closer. The 2014 version was a reasonable facsimile of 2013’s fantasy breakout star, although late season gopheritis tainted what looked to be a top-five reliever season. Now headed into his age 40 season, Uehara doesn’t have any overt warning lights. However, savvy owners need to factor in the potential for a decline, meaning he should come off the board later than he did last year.

Jason Vargas

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 2/2/1983 | Team: Royals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 8 0 150 6.5 2.8 1.0 4.02 1.39 4.09 1.8 1.5
’14 11 10 0 187 6.2 2.0 0.9 3.71 1.27 3.84 2.8 2.6
’15 11 11 0 182 6.0 2.3 1.2 4.10 1.28 4.35 1.7 1.4

Profile: Vargas is a fly ball pitcher who found the perfect home in Kansas City for his limited fantasy talents. KC’s home run suppressing home park and amazing outfield defense are just what Vargas needs to remain productive. Those two factors just aren’t enough to hide the flaws in his game. His 6.2 strikeout per nine rate was in the bottom fifth among qualified starters in 2014. His 3.71 ERA was his best in ever in the majors — his career value sits at 4.20. I really don’t expect anything to change. An ERA around four with 120 strikeouts and 10 wins is a reasonable projection. His level of production is just usually not playable in all but the deepest of leagues. (Jeff Zimmmerman)

Quick Opinion: Playing for the Royals makes Jason Vargas an okay pitcher, but his lack of talent will keep from being owned in many leagues.

Anthony Varvaro

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 10/31/1984 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 1 1 73 5.3 3.1 0.4 2.82 1.27 3.47 0.8 0.2
’14 3 3 0 54 8.2 2.1 0.8 2.63 1.08 3.21 0.8 0.3
’15 3 3 1 55 6.8 2.9 0.9 4.06 1.34 4.03 0.1 0.1

Profile: Varvaro posted a sub-three ERA in three of his four seasons with the Braves, but seen in sum, he doesn’t have plus strikeout, walk, or ground-ball rates. Originally picked up as a waiver claim, the Staten Island native has been just above a replacement level pitcher and will act in a similar middle-relief role for the Red Sox this year. He isn’t a great candidate for holds or saves in a deep Boston bullpen, and therefore isn’t worth a fantasy flier in most leagues. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Varvaro doesn’t have the plus stuff you’d expect from a late-inning reliever, and that’s where fantasy value is born. 

Jonny Venters

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 3/20/1985 | Position: P
’15 0 0 0 1 9.5 2.9 0.6 2.93 1.17 2.98 0.1 0.0

Profile: Venters attempted to return from his second Tommy John surgery last season but was unable to make an appearance on the mound. With his release from the Braves, it unfortunately looks like it may be the end of the line for the once dominant lefty set up man. (Ben Duronio)

Yordano Ventura

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 6/3/1991 | Team: Royals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 1 0 15 6.5 3.5 1.8 3.52 1.24 5.33 0.3 -0.0
’14 14 10 0 183 7.8 3.4 0.7 3.20 1.30 3.60 3.9 2.8
’15 10 10 0 173 7.9 3.5 0.8 3.87 1.30 3.86 2.1 2.1

Profile: Depending on how one chooses to classify the pitches, Ventura recorded either the highest or second-highest average fastball velocity among qualified starters in 2014. Regardless of the precise figure, the point remains: he throws so, so, so hard. All things being equal, above-average velocity is better than below-average. It creates a larger margin for error on location. It allows secondary pitches to play up. And that arm speed generally also translates to breaking pitches, permitting the owner of the arm in question to exact greater spin on the ball. This is all borne out in performance, too: fastball velocity correlates positively with run prevention. With the exception of his fastball, however — which is usually split into a four-seamer and sinker — Ventura’s other pitches profiled as largely average with regard to indicators such as swinging-strike and ground-ball rates. And despite producing an ERA that was nearly 20% better than league average, Ventura’s fielding-independent numbers were more ordinary. Because of the velocity, Ventura’s the sort who, with one mere adjustment, could become one of the league’s best starters. Velocity generally declines at about half a mile per hour per season, however, so continued dependence on the arm speed will likely breed negative consequences eventually. (Carson Cistulli)

Quick Opinion: Ventura is likely to pitch effectively in 2015 based on velocity alone. His long-term future, however, depends on the refinement of his repertoire.

Jose Veras

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 10/20/1980 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 5 21 62 8.6 3.2 0.9 3.02 1.07 3.62 1.2 0.7
’14 4 1 1 46 9.8 5.3 1.2 4.50 1.39 4.61 -0.2 -0.2
’15 0 0 0 1 8.7 3.7 1.0 3.79 1.32 3.96 0.1 0.0

Profile: His ability to miss bats with an arsenal spearheaded by a hard sinking fastball has often put Jose Veras at the periphery of the discussion about whom his team might consider for saves. Only once has a team brought him in to lead that charge, however; that experiment didn’t last for the entire campaign (because he was traded), and even the Astros aren’t that desperate anymore. Veras’ control isn’t as bad as his 2014 first-half (15.6% walk rate) indicates, and in the second half, he recovered most of the velocity that had been eluding him. But, regardless, at 34, he’s trending downward. His indicators in high-leverage situations say that he simply can’t be trusted in them. Regression might put him back to above league average in strikeouts minus walks, and it’s possible that he ends up as a bit of a surprise source of holds somewhere, but that’s almost surely the ceiling of his 2015 fantasy value. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Veras’ ability to strike out the opposition and limit walks have slowly waned, and he was never really good at limiting the walks. His second half of 2014 showed that he’s a candidate to bounce back some, so he might turn out to be a surprise 2015 source of holds in deep leagues, but that’s about it.

Justin Verlander

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 2/20/1983 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 13 12 0 218 8.9 3.1 0.8 3.46 1.31 3.28 4.0 5.2
’14 15 12 0 206 6.9 2.8 0.8 4.54 1.40 3.74 0.8 3.3
’15 12 10 0 192 7.2 2.7 1.1 4.05 1.28 4.18 2.1 2.1

Profile: The 31-year-old Verlander is at crossroads in his career. He is going to need to figure out how to pitch successfully with a lower fastball velocity. That gas has been slowly declining since 2009, but over the last couple of seasons it has dropped two mph from 94.3 to 92.3 mph. At the same time, his swinging strike rate has gone from 12% to 9%, which is inline with his strikeout rate dropping from nine per nine to seven per nine. Looking at all his numbers, almost all are trending in the wrong way. Contact percentages are up. Zone percentage is down. Batting average on balls in play is up. Home runs are up. Historically speaking, he has little chance of a velocity rebound. Owners need to go into 2015 expecting the 2014 Verlander, not the one from previous Cy Young seasons. Along with the drop in strikeouts, his ERA and estimators now stand near the four territory instead of being sub-three. These type of numbers puts in the category of pitchers like Bud Norris, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy and Wade Miley –acceptable starters, but not great. He is going to get drafted way ahead of those pitchers on the chance of a possible rebound. Don’t take the chance. He isn’t completely useless, but his current talent needs to be valued, not his production from a couple seasons ago. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: All pitchers eventually begin to see their production wane. Just like CC Sabathia and Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander needs to be valued on his current talent, not his previous Cy Young production levels.

Carlos Villanueva

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 11/28/1983 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 8 0 128 7.2 2.8 1.0 4.06 1.22 3.86 1.2 0.9
’14 5 7 2 77 8.3 2.2 0.7 4.64 1.39 3.13 -0.1 1.1
’15 0 0 0 1 8.1 2.4 1.0 3.61 1.21 3.72 0.1 0.0

Profile: Villanueva’s ERA and FIP were in major discord in 2014. His ERA was 24% worse than league average, but his FIP was 17% better than the league average pitcher. That oddity alone should ensure he will be in the majors in 2015 — likely in the hopes he can prove his FIP was legitimate, and not his ERA. From a fantasy perspective, there is not a lot to love about him, though. He splits his time between starting and relieving and hasn’t had an ERA beneath four since the Bush administration. It’s worth noting his numbers as a reliever (3.75 FIP) are almost a full 100 points better than as a starter (4.72 FIP). So if a team grabs him for middle relief instead of long relief or swing man duty, Carlos might be worth a second look — for some reason beyond the mustache. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: His fantasy value is limited because he is a fringy starting pitcher and an adequate long reliever. He improved his peripherals in 2014, but he probably won’t be worth a roster spot unless he’s pitching only in relief, and even then, he’s not a hold or saves candidate.

Nick Vincent

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 7/12/1986 | Team: Padres | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 6 3 1 46 9.5 2.1 0.2 2.14 0.95 2.06 1.2 1.1
’14 1 2 0 55 10.1 1.8 0.8 3.60 1.00 2.77 0.2 0.7
’15 2 2 0 40 8.8 2.5 0.9 3.20 1.18 3.47 0.1 0.1

Profile: Nick Vincent is pretty interesting at first glance because of his strikeout rates (27.8% in 127 2/3 frames lifetime, 28.8% in 55 innings last season) and strikeout minus walk rates (22.0% career, 23.7% last year). Figures like that have helped him to record a 2.68 ERA and 0.98 WHIP as a big leaguer. He looks like a potential closer, doesn’t he? Maybe he could fill in on occasion – he does have one save to his credit – but he’s highly unlikely to ascend to chairman of the bullpen. The right-hander is heavily dependent upon a nasty cutter that averages about 88 mph and has been very good for him (1.94 runs saved per 100 pitches, according to pitch-type linear weights). It has no doubt aided his other fastballs, but he obviously lacks prototypical velocity. Vincent has destroyed right-handed hitters (.174/.217/.246 slash line against him in 295 plate appearances) but hasn’t come up with a way to retire left-handed batters (.254/.332/.407 versus him in 205 PAs), either. If his changeup was the answer to that problem, then he’d throw it more often. As it stands, he’s a good middle reliever or right-handed setup man in a really good Padres bullpen and thus could again be pretty useful in holds leagues. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Vincent has been very efficient, as his lifetime 22% strikeout minus walk rate indicates, but he hasn’t found a way to retire left-handed batters consistently. He should continue to be very effective in a middle-relief or setup role, but he’s not really a candidate for saves, just holds, so he’s irrelevant in most fantasy leagues.

Arodys Vizcaino

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 11/13/1990 | Team: Braves | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 0 0 0 5 7.2 5.4 1.8 5.40 1.60 5.93 -0.0 -0.0
’15 0 0 0 1 8.8 3.5 0.8 3.57 1.28 3.68 0.1 0.0

Profile: Once an exciting starting pitcher prospect in the Braves system, Vizcaino’s potential has dimmed following two elbow surgeries. He still might develop into an elite reliever, what with his scintillating fastball and hard curve. He will only be 24 in the 2015 season, and after a cup-of-coffee MLB appearance in 2014, he should start the season in Triple-A with his number on speed dial. The Braves bullpen is not as crowded as the Cubs one, so Vizcaino will almost certainly make another appearance if he can translate his 31% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate from Double-A to Triple-A. He might even start in the majors and start accruing holds shortly. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Keep an eye on Arodys Vizcaino’s numbers. He could find himself in the majors from the beginning of the season, and his stuff if filthy at times. How good he’ll be with depend on his ever-flimsy health.

Ryan Vogelsong

Debut: 2000 |  BirthDate: 7/22/1977 | Team: Giants | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 6 0 103 5.8 3.3 1.3 5.73 1.56 4.91 -1.9 -0.6
’14 8 13 0 184 7.4 2.8 0.9 4.00 1.28 3.85 0.9 1.0
’15 7 7 0 115 7.1 2.9 1.0 4.07 1.30 4.07 0.3 0.3

Profile: The 37-year-old Vogelsong stayed healthy in 2014, and for the most part recaptured the success he had seen in his first two seasons back stateside after a three-year stint in Japan. The strikeouts were back up, the walks were back down and in general Vogelsong looked like his old self. A decline is certainly somewhere in the future, but with just under 1,000 big league innings on his right arm, it may be further off than most think. If healthy, Vogelsong should be able to give whomever he signs with a solid chunk of innings at slightly worse than league-average production. Where he lands will play a pretty big part on if he’s a back-end fantasy starter, or just waiver wire fodder. More likely he is the latter, however. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: Vogelsong is still unsigned as of this writing, but provided he can remain healthy should be good for slightly worse than league-average production and around 170-180 innings. That can be valuable in certain fantasy leagues, but probably not the majority.

Edinson Volquez

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 7/3/1983 | Team: Royals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 12 0 170 7.5 4.1 1.0 5.71 1.59 4.24 -2.4 0.3
’14 13 7 0 192 6.5 3.3 0.8 3.04 1.23 4.15 3.0 0.7
’15 9 11 0 163 6.5 3.7 1.0 4.56 1.41 4.46 0.6 0.9

Profile: Even after he recorded a 3.04 ERA in a bounce back campaign for the Pirates, there is still a lot of risk when it comes to drafting Edinson Volquez. He only struck out 140 batters despite throwing 192 innings, and now he will move to the American League for the first time since 2007. At least he will have a quality defense behind him in Kansas City. Volquez is a back end starter for the Royals — even though his ERA was almost halved last year, his FIP of 4.15 was comparable to the past two years. Despite having a solid season in terms of fantasy performance last year with his low ERA and 13 wins, he has yet to throw over 200 innings and only has two seasons with an ERA below four. Volquez has gotten so many chances. He finally was able to perform last year, and cashed in on his breakout season, but there are serious questions as to whether he will be able to even come close to replicating that type of year in his first season with the Royals. With Volquez comes a lot of risk — last year looks like the absolute high end in terms of results, which to me does not make him an attractive pick on draft day. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Let someone else bite on Volquez’s mirage-breakout on draft day. Although he will move to another team with a quality defense, Volquez does not have the strikeout potential he once had and his underlying statistics suggest he will move back into the low four ERA range in the American League.

Michael Wacha

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 7/1/1991 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 1 0 64 9.0 2.6 0.7 2.78 1.10 2.92 1.6 1.2
’14 5 6 0 107 7.9 2.8 0.5 3.20 1.20 3.17 1.9 1.8
’15 10 9 0 153 8.1 2.8 0.9 3.66 1.23 3.69 1.6 1.6

Profile: Wacha’s fastball/changeup combo made him a revelation in 2013. He joined the Cardinals’ rotation in early September, and remained razor-sharp through five regular-season starts and five post-season starts. Last year, the 23-year-old suffered from a stress reaction in his right shoulder — also known as Brandon McCarthy Syndrome. Wacha was limited to just 107 innings and pitched quite well, but his strikeout rate took a major hit, dropping from 9.05 per nine down to a 7.91 K/9. Wacha is expected to be at 100% health heading into 2015, but it remains to be seen whether his shoulder problems are a long-term concern, or just a short-term detour. For fantasy purposes, his upside is well worth the risk. If he stays healthy, his combination of pure stuff and advanced control will make him a valuable commodity in all leagues. (Scott Strandberg)

Quick Opinion: The key to Wacha’s 2015 is clearly his health. If he can stay off the disabled list, his floor is likely a top-50 fantasy starter, with a ceiling far higher. It’s usually best to shy away from drafting recently injured players in re-draft leagues, but the fact that he came back and got some innings in at the end of 2014 is reassuring, and his upside is still very high.

Tsuyoshi Wada

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 2/21/1981 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 4 4 0 69 7.4 2.5 0.9 3.25 1.24 3.75 1.2 0.8
’15 5 5 1 93 8.0 2.5 1.1 3.59 1.23 3.84 0.4 0.2

Profile: Wada is a soft-tossing lefty on the wrong side of thirty who has a major injury in his recent past. But here’s why he could make for a sly sleeper heading into 2015: Not only did he impress in his major league debut — a callup which lasted 13 starts — but he sported a strikeout percentage in the mid 20s. Having a 2.77 ERA in the Pacific Coast League is not a common feat no matter your age. In fact, it was good enough for third best in the league behind only Jimmy Nelson and Mike Fiers. Wada will need to look good in spring training to secure the number four or five spot in the rotation, but his years spent in Japan’s pro league and his recent success should give him an edge against the down-on-their-luck journeyman and ready-to-prove-something youngsters he’ll be competing against. If he does stick in the rotation, look for him to be the sort he out plays his FIP, as that is a trait he featured regularly in his time in Japan as well as in the MLB minors. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: He’s not a lock for the rotation, but Wada could be an excellent sleeper out of the Cubs starting five. He was a strong pitcher in Japan, and his unheralded ascension to the major leagues should make him relatively unknown. He has the potential to bring strikeouts and ERA to any fantasy lineup.

Neil Wagner

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 1/1/1984 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 4 0 38 7.8 3.1 1.2 3.79 1.37 4.13 0.3 0.2
’14 0 0 0 10 5.4 3.6 0.9 8.10 1.60 4.73 -0.5 0.0
’15 0 0 0 1 8.3 2.9 1.0 3.63 1.26 3.87 0.1 0.0

Profile: Wagner won’t pitch in 2015 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. He joined the Rays on a minor league contract in November. (Drew Fairservice)

Adam Wainwright

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 8/30/1981 | Team: Cardinals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 19 9 0 241 8.2 1.3 0.6 2.94 1.07 2.55 5.6 6.3
’14 20 9 0 227 7.1 2.0 0.4 2.38 1.03 2.88 6.9 4.5
’15 11 9 0 173 7.4 2.0 0.8 3.42 1.18 3.34 2.3 2.4

Profile: Has there ever been a quieter “full season missed due to serious arm injury” than Adam Wainwright’s 2011? In three seasons since, he’s barely missed a beat, and his 2014 ended with a fourth top-three Cy Young finish. While Wainwright has done it a little differently — he’s largely ditched his sinker in favor of more cutters and four-seamers — he’s still one of the few true “aces” in baseball. But if you’re looking for reasons to be worried, Wainwright’s 2014 provided several, despite the positive overall numbers. His strikeout percentage fell to 19.9%, the lowest it had been since 2008 despite the rest of baseball whiffing more often, and he had some dreadful moments both in July and October. More concerning, after battling an elbow issue for much of the second half, he had offseason surgery to “trim the ligament.” Wainwright is reportedly expected to be fine for 2015, but after more than 500 innings the last two years and over 700 since his Tommy John surgery, there’s always going to be concern about the condition of his arm. (Mike Petriello)

Quick Opinion: Adam Wainwright had another outstanding season, which masked some real concerns about the condition of his arm and his ability to miss bats. That said, even a diminished Wainwright is still one of baseball’s best pitchers.

Jordan Walden

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 11/16/1987 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 4 3 1 47 10.3 2.7 0.8 3.45 1.13 2.81 0.3 0.8
’14 0 2 3 50 11.2 4.9 0.4 2.88 1.20 2.79 0.8 0.7
’15 3 2 1 55 10.2 3.3 0.8 2.97 1.16 3.16 0.5 0.4

Profile: After a two year stint in Atlanta acting as a setup man for Craig Kimbrel, the former Angel closer will move to a setup role behind Cardinal fireballer Trevor Rosenthal. Rosenthal saved 45 games last year and has cemented himself as the closer in St. Louis for the foreseeable future, so Walden should only be looked at as a handcuff. Walden was useful to the Braves, and while his walks increased last year, his strikeouts did as well. He has battled some health problems the past two seasons, but he is pretty reliable in terms of his talent and is still just 27 years old. Even though he is in his prime and has consistently been better than average in terms of FIP, Walden’s only path to fantasy relevance is if Rosenthal gets injured or struggles tremendously. He is a fine handcuff and would be a very valuable closer if Rosenthal goes down, but unless you have room for a setup man on your roster he will likely not be worthwhile to own in fantasy leagues this year. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Walden’s move to St. Louis makes him only ever so slightly more valuable in fantasy formats. He is still a setup man behind an impressive young closer and his only path to being useful in fantasy is via an injury to Trevor Rosenthal.

Taijuan Walker

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 8/13/1992 | Team: Mariners | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 0 0 15 7.2 2.4 0.0 3.60 1.00 2.25 0.2 0.5
’14 2 3 0 38 8.1 4.3 0.5 2.61 1.29 3.68 0.9 0.4
’15 3 3 0 48 7.8 3.7 0.9 4.17 1.35 4.18 0.3 0.3

Profile: Taijuan Walker was supposed to break out in a big way last year, but that didn’t happen. Walker dealt with injury problems to start the season, and proceeded to struggle his way through 14 starts in Triple-A Tacoma before giving Mariners fans another taste of what could come. If you watched Walker’s big league starts, you could see the hard fastball, the big curve, and the nice cutter, but you could also see that Walker had little to no command and still needs to figure out a gameplan other than trying to throw it by hitters. Just 22 years old and relatively new to full-time baseball, Walker still has time to figure things out, but it likely won’t be in the major leagues. The Mariners will be happy to make room for Walker if he shines, but until then, he’ll likely be an injury replacement. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Just 22 years old and relatively new to full-time baseball, Walker still has time to figure things out, but it likely won’t be in the majors leagues quite yet. The Mariners will be happy to make room for Walker if he shines, but until then, he’ll likely be an injury replacement.

Wei-Chung Wang

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 4/25/1992 | Team: Brewers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 0 0 0 17 6.8 4.2 3.1 10.90 2.19 7.69 -0.9 -0.4
’15 1 1 0 15 7.2 2.7 1.1 3.87 1.30 4.10 0.0 0.0

Profile: As a Rule 5 pick from the Pirates in December 2013, Wang got to pitch out of the Brewers’ major-league bullpen from April through July, when he conveniently experienced shoulder tightness on the same day Jimmy Nelson was deemed ready for a call-up. Wang took a couple weeks off, then went back to being a starter in A-ball on his “rehab assignment.” As his numbers attest to, the 22-year-old was not close to being ready for major-league action, and he allowed at least two runs in six of his 14 appearances. (Scott Strandberg)

Quick Opinion: Wang will likely start the season in Double-A. He will almost certainly be a non-factor in fantasy leagues in 2015.

Adam Warren

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 8/25/1987 | Team: Yankees | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 2 1 77 7.5 3.5 1.2 3.39 1.43 4.32 1.0 0.1
’14 3 6 3 78 8.7 2.7 0.5 2.97 1.11 2.89 1.6 1.4
’15 3 3 1 55 8.1 2.7 1.0 3.46 1.22 3.72 0.4 0.3

Profile: Warren has been used virtually exclusively as a reliever in the two-plus years he’s been in the majors, but given the Yankees’ dearth of starting pitching depth —Masahiro Tanaka and CC Sabathia have major injury concerns, Ivan Nova won’t be ready until at least May after having Tommy John surgery, Michael Pineda is not exactly a paradigm of durability, and swingman David Phelps was just shipped to Miami —the 27-year-old has been instructed to prepare for a possible starter’s job in 2015. Warren, who features a slider, curveball and changeup to compliment his mid-90s fastball, had himself a very effective 2014 as a middle reliever, greatly improving his strikeout-to-walk ratio along with his strand rate. He’s only made three starts in the majors, but was a rotation man down in the minors, where he posted middling strikeout and walk numbers; although his fastball velocity has steadily ticked upwards since breaking into the majors, it could lose some steam if he’s stretched into a starter’s role, and his secondary stuff didn’t generate whiff rates above league average last year. Meanwhile, a 6% home-run-to-fly-ball rate is likely to climb given Yankee Stadium’s homer-aiding ways, as does a 2.97 ERA that benefited from some batted ball luck. At the least, Phelps’ departure should open the door for Warren to pick up some starts as the team’s swingman, but even if the Yankees were to hand him a rotation spot, he seems unlikely to distinguish himself for fantasy purposes. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Warren has demonstrated success at the major league level, but needs to prove himself as a starter before earning any value beyond AL-only leagues.

Tony Watson

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 5/30/1985 | Team: Pirates | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 1 2 71 6.8 1.5 0.6 2.39 0.88 3.20 1.7 0.5
’14 10 2 2 77 9.4 1.7 0.6 1.63 1.02 2.69 2.8 1.3
’15 3 2 1 55 8.8 2.2 0.7 2.83 1.12 3.08 0.6 0.5

Profile: A top left-handed set up man, Tony Watson enjoyed another stellar year in Pittsburgh and recorded his fourth consecutive year of posting a better ERA and FIP than the season before. Watson was already good and has continued to improve — he is now one of the best and most reliable relievers in the game. Combining a mid-90’s fastball with a solid changeup, Watson has improved so much against right-handed hitters that he is certainly a candidate for saves should something happen to Mark Melancon. Do not count on double-digit wins again, as the 10 he won last year would certainly be a fluke result for any reliever, but he will receive a ton of holds and is about as solid a handcuff as there is around the league. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Watson is one of the top set up men in the game and is almost certainly next in line for saves in Pittsburgh. He can get both lefties and righties out at a high rate, and if something were to happen to Mark Melancon, he could become one of the top closers in all of baseball. Target him if you are looking for a quality handcuff or if you are in a holds league.

Jered Weaver

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 10/4/1982 | Team: Angels | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 11 8 0 154 6.8 2.2 1.0 3.27 1.14 3.82 3.3 2.3
’14 18 9 0 213 7.1 2.7 1.1 3.59 1.21 4.19 3.3 1.5
’15 12 11 0 192 6.9 2.5 1.3 4.16 1.28 4.44 1.1 0.8

Profile: Jered Weaver is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. For years, his ERA has beat defense independent indicators like FIP, xFIP, and SIERA; 2014 was no exception in this regard. In lieu of high strikeout rates or even ground ball generation, Weaver has relied on inducing pop ups at a rate above average league average. Because so many of his copious fly balls are actually infield flies, he depresses the number of home runs allowed to an extent that’s not very common for fly ball pitchers. It will be interesting to see whether the dip in his pop up rate in 2014 (when it was right around league average) will be a trend. If it is, there’s might be cause for concern, because the spike in Weaver’s walk rate is of concern, too –– it was his highest since 2009. Add to these things a first strike rate that’s declined for four years straight –– to the point where it’s now well below league average –– and there are some question marks going forward. Still, DIPS continue to underrate Weaver’s ability to get batters out, and he reached 200 innings for the first time since 2011, so it’d be wise not to count him out completely. He’s just not the ace that he used to be. (Robert J. Baumann)

Quick Opinion: You can’t count on Weaver to be the ace of your fantasy staff anymore, but if you can nab him at a price appropriate for a league average [fantasy] starter with a bit of upside, he can still contribute.

Ryan Webb

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 2/5/1986 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 6 0 80 6.0 3.0 0.6 2.91 1.21 3.60 0.9 0.4
’14 3 3 0 49 6.8 2.2 0.4 3.83 1.26 2.95 0.4 0.7
’15 1 1 0 20 6.4 2.6 0.9 3.87 1.28 3.99 0.1 0.0

Profile: Ryan Webb features a repertoire with a heavy sinker and sharp slider which induces oodles of ground balls. His career strikeout rate barely cracks 16% and he’s well back on the Baltimore Oriole depth chart, so it’s unlikely that he sniffs many save opportunities in 2015 unless disaster strikes their bullpen. He could be in line for double digit holds, but even then, he’s probably their sixth or seventh inning bridge guy, not a classic eighth inning setup type. He’s someone to keep an eye on, but not particularly useful in standard formats. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: Webb can get you a double play with his big time sinker, but he’s not likely to play a part in too many fantasy championship rosters. Unless he falls into a late-inning high-leverage role with the Baltimore Orioles, he’s a fringe reliever with a handful of holds heading into 2015. 

Daniel Webb

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 8/18/1989 | Team: White Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 0 0 11 7.9 3.2 0.0 3.18 1.15 2.34 0.2 0.2
’14 6 5 0 67 7.7 5.6 0.8 3.99 1.49 4.52 0.3 -0.2
’15 2 2 0 40 8.3 4.4 0.9 4.23 1.42 4.11 -0.0 0.0

Profile: After showing promise in 2013, Webb took a bit of a step back in 2014. He had a real hard time with his control, walking 14.2% of opposing batters. He was able to pitch around those runners more often than not, leading to a solid 3.99 ERA. If he continues to walk batters at that rate, that ERA figure is certain to rise moving forward. Webb has always had tantalizing stuff, but has had issues harnessing it. If he can get back to where he was a year or so ago, he could turn into one of the team’s better late-inning options. If not, he’ll have some frustrating outings where he can’t find the strike zone. (Chris Cwik)

Quick Opinion: Webb has always had good stuff, but his ability to harness it has been a question. He took a step backward in 2014, but still is an intriguing arm.

Allen Webster

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 2/10/1990 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 2 0 30 6.8 5.3 2.1 8.60 1.81 6.51 -0.9 -0.3
’14 5 3 0 59 5.5 4.3 0.5 5.03 1.46 4.35 0.1 0.5
’15 6 9 0 125 6.7 3.9 1.0 4.63 1.43 4.65 0.2 0.4

Profile: Allen Webster has thrown over 800 sinkers, sliders, and changeups. They’ve all shown plus whiff rates. In the case of the change (26%), there’s even a chance for him to have one of the best righty changes in the game. Randall Delgado (28.8%) and Stephen Strasburg (25.1%) threw their versions of the pitch more often, but the trio sits atop the leaderboard for right-handed starters. The four-seam might be the culprit for his bad results to date. The pitch gets a whiff under 2% of the time and finds the zone less than half the time — perhaps he should quit throwing it, even if averaged over 92 last year. In any case, Webster’s poor control (he’s walked more than a batter ever two innings so far in his major league career and had worse-than-average walk rates at most minor league stops) makes him a risky bet. But that means he’ll also be available. And a starter with three good pitches and a demonstrated double-digit whiff rate has to be interesting in any draft you’ll see this spring. Only twelve pitchers with more than 80 innings thrown over the last two years have had a better whiff rate. Stay on top of his spring innings usage and conversations about his role. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: With a fistful of pitches and no command, Allen Webster is not the most dangerous man that ever lived. He is, however, a 25-year-old with great stuff and an opportunity in the Arizona rotation. If he gets that spot, draft him late. In any league of decent depth.

Zack Wheeler

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 5/30/1990 | Team: Mets | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 7 5 0 100 7.6 4.1 0.9 3.42 1.36 4.17 1.2 0.5
’14 11 11 0 185 9.1 3.8 0.7 3.54 1.33 3.55 1.4 1.8
’15 9 10 0 153 8.7 3.7 0.8 3.88 1.31 3.68 0.8 1.3

Profile: At 25 years old in 2015, Zack Wheeler could be even better. His two worst pitches — the slider and the changeup — still induced over 21% and 30% whiffs-per-swing respectively. While these rates are below average for these pitch-types, his fourseam, sinker and curve are all great: he had the 16th-best whiff rate on his fastball (23.14%); seventh-best whiff and 38th-best grounder rate on his sinker; and 11th-best whiff and 10th-best grounder rate on his curveball in 2014. It will take more swing-and-miss from his slider and/or changeup for him to become elite. If he had a better defense behind him, he could reach pre-2014 batting average on balls in play levels based on his contact prevention (top 25 zone-contact%) and balls in play (top 20 grounder-to-fly) outcomes. Wheeler’s expected earned run averages (3.54 SIERA and 3.49 xFIP) perfectly backed up his 3.55 ERA, and at 25, based on his repertoire, there should be more swing-and-miss to his game, which could have him approach 200 strikeouts in 33 starts. With some luck (a left on base% that approached his 2013 level) and a lower BABIP as well as additional command/development, Wheeler could turn into 3.25 ERA – 1.20 WHIP – 200 K Ace. (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: Steamer is not as bullish as some, but Wheeler will only be 25 and his repertoire adds up to almost three standard deviations better than average from a swinging-strike perspective. To say that he could be the Mets’ third-best starter next year if they all stay healthy, is exciting. The New York Mets rotation commands attention.

Chase Whitley

Debut: 2014 |  BirthDate: 6/14/1989 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 4 3 0 75 7.1 2.1 1.2 5.23 1.48 4.14 -0.0 0.6
’15 3 3 0 54 7.5 2.6 1.1 3.81 1.25 4.02 0.2 0.1

Profile: Peruse Chase Whitley’s player card, and one statistic might catch your eye. That 11.1% swinging strike rate stands out among what are otherwise mediocre numbers. You could discount it, even as it came in 1265 pitches, and pass on the player. You’re probably right to, as he fizzled late in the season, came back as a reliever, and is now firmly outside of the top five or six spots in the rotation. But there are reasons to believe Whitley could be a starter, and a decent one at that. First, his change piece is a really, really good one. With a 23.2% whiff rate, the change owned a top-ten swinging strike rate if he was counted among starters (top 20 overall). Second, his slider is average. A 12% whiff rate is just fine if it’s not your best pitch. Where his arsenal breaks down a bit is in the fastball section. 90.6 mph velocity, a 5% whiff rate on the four-seamer, and a 35.7% ground-ball rate on the sinker — these numbers are definitively not good. With a below-average fastball and a starter’s arsenal, you might think that Whitney’s plus command would even things out. It might, if he were in the National League in a nice park. In New York… just keep an eye on him. If one of the big guys goes down (when one of the big guys goes down), Whitney may get another shot at relevance, and there are some signs to suggest he could make good at that shot. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Being a bad fastball control-and-command guy might work in San Diego, but Whitley’s shown some issues with the fastball in New York, as his .263 isolated slugging against on the pitch can attest. That’s okay, in deeper leagues, it’s worth looking past that issue and focusing on his strengths. At least for a spot-start, bench lottery ticket type role.

Joe Wieland

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 1/21/1990 | Team: Dodgers | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 1 0 0 11 6.4 4.0 2.4 7.15 1.85 6.49 -0.3 -0.3
’15 4 4 0 67 7.1 2.6 1.1 4.14 1.28 4.14 0.2 0.2

Profile: Joe Wieland is interesting because of the propensity to limit walks and the efficiency he showed in the minors (combined 18.2 strikeout minus walk rate). Those things haven’t been on display in the bigs, but that’s primarily because he’s had elbow surgery twice (including Tommy John surgery once) in the last three years. He’s basically a finesse pitcher, so the fact that he’s right-handed subverts potential enthusiasm, but the label isn’t totally fair, because he can dial it up a little and has recovered his pre-injuries velocity. Given, however, Wieland’s repertoire – his curve and change show promise, but there’s hardly enough data to be excited – it’d be nice to see ground-ball outs from him more frequently than he coaxed them on the farm … or at least a better way to avoid homers the way he did in the minors. Still, there’s a little to like here, if he stays healthy, and it probably won’t be long before the Dodgers have a need at the major league level. He could also serve as an above-average swingman. Wieland makes for an intriguing reserve pick, at least, in NL-only leagues in 2015. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Wieland possesses the potential to be more than just a finesse righty with great command and control, but elbow problems have held him back. If he remains healthy, then he should get a chance to display it with the Dodgers as either a swingman or a starter in 2015 and makes for an interesting NL-only reserve pick, at least.

Tom Wilhelmsen

Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 12/16/1983 | Team: Mariners | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 0 3 24 59 6.9 5.0 0.3 4.12 1.32 3.69 0.1 0.2
’14 3 2 1 79 8.2 4.1 0.7 2.27 1.05 3.74 1.7 0.2
’15 3 3 1 65 8.6 3.5 0.8 3.64 1.27 3.59 0.2 0.3

Profile: Just when you thought it was safe to put a fork in Tom Wilhelmsen, he goes out and has a nice little bounce back campaign in 2014. In 2013, Wilhelmsen came out of the gate simply filthy, throwing 24 innings between the first two months of the season, giving up just two earned runs, only nine total hits and no extra base hits. And then he completely fell apart, lost his closer role, and was ultimately demoted to Tacoma. He entered 2014 not entirely ensured of a job, and while his season wasn’t without warts, he generally shut down his opponents all season long. He posted a 2.27 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with a 23% strikeout rate, giving up just 47 hits over 79.1 total innings pitched. Wilhelmsen even started two games in a pinch and there were whispers that the role might stick, although given the Mariners relative depth at starting pitcher, it would take quite a few disasters to see him toe the rubber in the first inning in 2015. Wilhelmsen is well down the depth chart at closer, he still struggles with his control at times, and he certainly benefited from an 82% strand rate, but those of you in holds leagues might have interest. (Michael Barr)

Quick Opinion: Tom Wilhelmsen bounced back nicely in 2014, harnessing his big fastball to shut down opposing batters who hit just .168 on the season. He’s unlikely to pull down much in the way of wins or saves in 2015, but a good number of holds could be in his future. Wilhelmsen should be good for a decent ERA and his share of strikeouts, and if we’re all lucky, he’ll come out and dance for us before it’s all over.

Jerome Williams

Debut: 2003 |  BirthDate: 12/4/1981 | Team: Phillies | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 10 0 169 5.7 2.9 1.2 4.57 1.39 4.60 0.0 0.2
’14 6 7 0 115 6.4 2.8 0.9 4.77 1.40 4.16 -0.0 0.3
’15 3 5 0 67 6.0 2.9 1.0 4.63 1.39 4.37 -0.0 0.2

Profile: Williams, 33, bounced between three teams in 2014, finally being claimed off waivers by the Phillies in August where he pitched serviceably (six strikeouts per nine innings, 2.83 ERA, 45.3% ground balls) in nine starts. The move to the National League surely factored into his success, as did a greater reliance on his sinker and changeup, though a heavy dose of luck — Williams outperformed his SIERA, FIP and xFIP by more than a full run in Philadelphia — helped as much as anything. Williams tentatively has a rotation spot for 2015, and has managed to maintain a sub-three walks per nine innings rate over the past three seasons, but he’ll also be playing for a team that finished last in the NL East in 2014 and plays in a notorious hitter’s park. One could probably do worse than Williams so far as streaming options go, but he’s a working definition of mediocre and isn’t guaranteed a starter’s role. (Karl de Vries)

Quick Opinion: Leave Williams for all but the deepest of NL-only leagues.

C.J. Wilson

Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 11/18/1980 | Team: Angels | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 17 7 0 212 8.0 3.6 0.6 3.39 1.34 3.51 3.0 3.2
’14 13 10 0 175 7.7 4.4 0.9 4.51 1.45 4.31 0.2 0.6
’15 12 11 0 192 7.6 3.9 0.8 4.25 1.38 4.01 0.7 1.4

Profile: C.J. Wilson was able to make 30 starts for the fifth consecutive season in 2014, a feat to which only 13 other starters can lay claim. But for the first time in those five years, Wilson’s 30+ starts weren’t any good. Command issues have plagued him throughout his career (10% walk rate) and they reached new heights in 2015; his zone rate plummeted and led to his worst walk rate as a starter. He did spend time on the disabled list in July — his first DL trip since 2008 — but just for a sprained ankle. Wilson has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball since 2010, but heading into his age-34 season there are certainly questions as to how valuable his annual 30 starts will actually be. Command problems limited him to just 5.6 innings per start, and he fell 25 innings shy of 200 despite his high start total. ZiPS and Steamer both have Wilson bouncing back a bit from his rough 2014, but he’s starting to look more and more like a back-end innings eater than an impact fantasy option at this point in his career. (August Fagerstrom)

Quick Opinion: Wilson opens the year as the Angels second or third starter and has a very long leash in the rotation. He’s been as good a bet as anybody to make 30 starts since he became a starter in 2010. The question now is whether those 30 starts will be any good. He could be a slight bounceback candidate in 2015, but his upside probably isn’t too high at this point.

Brian Wilson

Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 3/16/1982 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 1 0 13 8.6 2.6 0.0 0.66 0.88 2.02 0.6 0.4
’14 2 4 1 48 10.1 5.4 0.9 4.66 1.61 4.29 -0.6 -0.4
’15 1 1 0 20 8.4 3.4 0.9 3.68 1.30 3.90 0.0 0.0

Profile: “Fear the Beard” took on an entirely different meaning for Dodgers fans in 2014. Beyond Kenley Jansen and some good innings from Pedro Baez, the Dodgers’ bullpen was something of a mess. Wilson added to that instability, recording 10 meltdowns against 18 shutdowns. (By comparison, Jansen had seven and 34, respectively). Wilson did gain back some of the velocity on his four-seamer that he lost as he battled back from elbow injuries, throwing it around 94 mph through June, but it began to trail off until it was averaging around 89 in just 6.2 September innings. Considering that he pitched 15.2 innings combined in 2012-2013, the drop in velocity could just mean that he’s still building up arm strength after missing so much time. On the whole, however, he was unable generate grounders in the way that he used to, he gave up a lot of hard hit balls, and he walked way too many batters. He was released by the Dodgers in December, and now will have to catch on with a new team as he tries to work his way back to being a contributor. (Robert J. Baumann)

Quick Opinion: Time will tell if the Beard will elicit fear in hitters again, but recent injuries, poor performance, and a lack of a home render Wilson a non-factor on draft day.

Justin Wilson

Debut: 2012 |  BirthDate: 8/18/1987 | Team: Yankees | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 6 1 0 73 7.2 3.4 0.5 2.08 1.06 3.41 2.1 0.4
’14 3 4 0 60 9.1 4.5 0.6 4.20 1.32 3.62 -0.4 0.1
’15 2 2 0 45 8.8 3.8 0.9 3.46 1.28 3.82 0.3 0.2

Profile: Wilson is an interesting pitcher with three different types of fastballs, but he will be utilized as a left-handed middle relief option for the Yankees this year after being traded for Francisco Cervelli. He is off the fantasy radar. (Ben Duronio)

Chris Withrow

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 4/1/1989 | Team: Dodgers | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 0 1 34 11.2 3.4 1.3 2.60 0.95 3.57 0.7 0.1
’14 0 0 0 21 11.8 7.6 0.4 2.95 1.31 3.79 0.2 -0.1
’15 1 0 0 10 10.2 3.9 0.8 3.19 1.23 3.40 0.0 0.0

Profile: In just his second season out of the bullpen, the former first-round selection and converted starter Chris Withrow, got out of the gate in a hurry to begin the campaign. In 12.2 March/April innings, Withrow owned a 0.71 ERA (2.66 FIP) and a 0.95 walks plus hits per inning pitched rate, while striking out 36.7% of opponents. Walks became an issue as the month wore on, but it wasn’t until Withrow struggled in just over eight pretty awful May innings — 6.23 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and a 24.4% K% — that he learned of a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow. Dr. James Andrew performed Tommy John surgery on Withrow and the reliever is expected to return to the hill in the second half of the 2015 season, if all aspects of rehabilitation go as planned. And while on the mend from the Tommy John procedure, Withrow also underwent surgery on his lower back to repair a herniated disc. Although the second procedure is tagged with an estimated three-month timetable for return, it should not impact his ultimate return date from the Tommy John surgery. (Alan Harrison)

Quick Opinion: WIthrow is a name to keep on the back burner until the second-half of the 2015 season when a return from Tommy John and back surgeries is expected. If a complete recovery is made, Withrow could be a fine source of whiffs, ratios, and holds for owners in need at that time.

Travis Wood

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 2/6/1987 | Team: Cubs | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 9 12 0 200 6.5 3.0 0.8 3.11 1.14 3.89 4.4 2.6
’14 8 13 0 173 7.6 3.9 1.0 5.03 1.53 4.38 -1.2 1.0
’15 9 10 0 153 7.0 3.4 1.3 4.42 1.38 4.77 0.5 0.2

Profile: Travis Wood was never as good as his 2013 numbers (3.11 ERA), but he likewise may not be as bad as his 2014 performance (5.03 ERA). Problem is, with the addition of Jon Lester and re-addition of Jason Hammel — plus the strong late-season appearances from Kyle Hendricks and Tsuyoshi Wada — Wood enters the 2015 spring training schedule as a long shot for the number five spot in the rotation. Wood has enough talent to be at least a five, but the Cubs added pitching talent to the top of the roster, not the bottom. He does have a few things going for him: He is a lefty that gets an absurd amount of popups (which lends credibility to the notion of his being a FIP-beating outlier); he is out of options; and he is durable, making 30+ major and minor league combined starts in each of the last three seasons. Since he offers below average strikeout rates and only a decent ERA ceiling, most fantasy owners would be wise to avoid him if other options are available. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Wood is coming off a terrible season, but has never had the peripherals of a great starter anyway. Oh yeah, and he’s no lock for a spot in the rotation. His lack of options might ensure him either a bullpen or rotation role, but his fantasy value is next to nil.

Alex Wood

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 1/12/1991 | Team: Braves | Position: SP/RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 3 3 0 77 8.9 3.1 0.3 3.13 1.33 2.65 1.2 1.6
’14 11 11 0 171 8.9 2.4 0.8 2.78 1.14 3.25 3.9 2.5
’15 10 10 0 173 8.6 2.9 0.8 3.59 1.24 3.50 2.1 2.2

Profile: Pitching on an innings limit last season, Alex Wood threw 171 very solid innings for the Braves. While Julio Teheran may be the more notable name atop the Braves rotation, Wood may actually be the more talented starter. Wood kept the ball on the ground last season and struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he faced. While he has a funky delivery, he has avoided any real injury problems in his short pro career and he should be able to throw up to 200 innings this upcoming year. The Braves outfield defense went from elite to likely low end this offseason, but they still have Andrelton Simmons at shortstop and Wood’s ground-ball tendencies should allow him to continue to post excellent results in Atlanta if he remains healthy. While he may not have quite the upside of Chris Sale, it is hard not to see at least some similarities between the two funky left-handed starters. Wood will be a sought after commodity on draft day, but drafting pitchers who have upside to perform even better than they did the previous year is almost always recommended. Now a full time starter, do not fear for his innings any longer. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Wood impressed in his first full season in the majors. The Braves limited his innings by putting him in relief for part of the season, but this year he should be ready for a full season’s worth of starts and should be one of your starting pitcher targets on draft day.

Vance Worley

Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 9/25/1987 | Team: Pirates | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 1 5 0 48 4.6 2.8 1.7 7.21 1.99 5.53 -1.2 -0.2
’14 8 4 0 110 6.4 1.8 0.7 2.85 1.21 3.44 1.8 1.4
’15 10 10 0 163 6.1 2.2 0.9 4.07 1.29 3.85 0.7 1.2

Profile: Worley enjoyed a very nice bounce back year in Pittsburgh after struggling immensely in his lone season in the American League. Much of Worley’s improvements are tied to his command in the strike zone. If he had thrown enough innings to qualify, his 4.8% walk rate would be the 15th-lowest in all of baseball. The decreased walk rate and an uptick in strikeouts put his strikeout-to-walk rate close to that of his breakout rookie season. What Worley did differently this year was rely more on his two-seam fastball and less on his cutter, which led to his lowest xFIP in his career. Worley will enter the year in the Pirates rotation, as they tendered him a contract this offseason, but he will need to perform to stay in the rotation for the long term as he, Jeff Locke, and Charlie Morton are all competing for two rotation spots. If Worley’s two-seamer proves to be as effective as it was last season, he is a solid back end starter for fantasy purposes, as he has a reliable defense behind him and should see a fair amount of wins on a team looking to make its third straight postseason. It is tough to bet on another sub-three ERA season, but he could be a decent option late in drafts as his past struggles are likely keeping his draft price down. (Ben Duronio)

Quick Opinion: Worley had a comeback season in 2014 with the Pirates after struggling immensely in Minnesota the year prior. His two-seamer is now his go-to pitch and it led to a very impressive season, but his volatility makes him risky to rely on for fantasy purposes.

Jamey Wright

Debut: 1996 |  BirthDate: 12/24/1974 | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 2 0 70 8.4 3.0 0.5 3.09 1.20 3.13 0.8 0.5
’14 5 4 1 70 6.9 3.5 0.4 4.35 1.41 3.47 -0.4 0.1
’15 3 3 3 55 7.1 3.0 0.7 3.72 1.31 3.67 0.1 0.2

Profile: For the first 17 years of Jamey Wright’s MLB career, and in 18 of his 19 overall, he attended spring training in Arizona rather than Florida. This may be a fact that is interesting to no one other than me, but we are talking about a 40-year-old middle reliever with only slightly more real-world value than he has in fantasy, so, there you go. After a year in Tampa Bay, Wright took his oddly improving strikeout skills — 11.2% to 16.8% to 17.7% to 22.6% in his age 35-38 seasons — back to the Dodgers for a second stint, but found himself with an ERA much uglier than his decent enough FIP. Hopefully, he enjoyed the rare guaranteed contract, because it’s likely to be his last. (Mike Petriello)

Quick Opinion: After years as a non-roster invite, Jamey Wright finally got a guaranteed contract for 2014. A free agent once again, he’ll once again be kicking around someone’s camp in the spring to offer 60-70 low-leverage, low-impact innings.

Steven Wright

Debut: 2013 |  BirthDate: 8/30/1984 | Team: Red Sox | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 2 0 0 13 6.8 6.1 0.0 5.40 1.58 3.80 -0.1 0.1
’14 0 1 0 21 9.4 1.7 0.9 2.57 1.19 2.85 0.2 0.3
’15 2 2 0 40 6.2 3.0 0.9 4.21 1.37 4.19 0.0 -0.0

Profile: These days, knuckleballers are few and far between. As one of the rare few who possess it and have flashed it at the major league level, Steven Wright is most definitely an outlier. The question is whether or not he can be an effective outlier. That is an open question. He has pitched well in his major league trials, and has pitched well enough in Triple-A, but the Red Sox are not holding a rotation spot open for him. They are not even holding a bullpen spot open for him. He may very well earn a spot with the big league club come April, but the odds are stacked decidedly against him, especially after the acquisitions the team made in the wake of the winter meetings. Despite the successful major league trial, which included an effective September start against the Yankees, Wright is being guaranteed nothing. He could end the 2015 season as one of those successful pitchers who we will say we didn’t see coming. But the more likely scenario is that he toils away in Triple-A, or is perhaps liberated to a less-successful team in a trade for a bench piece. Either way, Wright is probably not someone you should target in your drafts, at least not until we see how his role might shake out during spring training. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: Steven Wright might actually be a good major league pitcher. But he is also a soon-to-be 30-year-old knuckleballer with just 34.1 career innings pitched under his belt on a team with a plethora of other pitching options higher on the depth chart. As such, he probably isn’t someone you should target on draft day.

Chris Young

Debut: 2004 |  BirthDate: 5/25/1979 | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’14 12 9 0 165 5.9 3.3 1.4 3.65 1.23 5.02 2.4 0.2
’15 7 10 0 144 6.1 3.3 1.9 5.22 1.45 5.72 -0.6 -1.1

Profile: The Comeback Player of the Year may not be down with FIP — yeah you know we — but that doesn’t mean that he’s a lock for a near-five ERA next year. He sits right at the crux of That Which We Cannot Measure. You can measure his 85 mph fastball velocity, yes, but you can’t (yet) measure exactly what that fastball looks like to opposing hitters. By being super tall and releasing the ball closer to home plate than anyone in baseball, and living up in the zone more than most, Young is making the most of what he has. It’s hard to get your hands around a fastball high and tight, and most of today’s hitters are low-ball hitters, so he’s zigging while the league zags. Of course, he still goes against all that we “know” about statistics and pitching — he has one of the worst ground-ball rates in baseball, and his strikeout minus walk rate is almost half league average — so he represents substantial risk. He’s likely to take a short deal to fill in for a starter some time this spring, so treat him the same way as the major league teams: cautiously put him on the back end of your deep league team if the price and fit is right. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Since the peripherals are so bad, you have to be cautious with the 35-year-old with an 85 mph fastball. But he still has his height, pitching philosophy, and seeming ability to beat those metrics so far in his career — and all of these things speak well to his potential usefulness in deep fantasy leagues.

Brad Ziegler

Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 10/10/1979 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: RP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 8 1 13 73 5.4 2.7 0.4 2.22 1.14 3.40 2.1 0.6
’14 5 3 1 67 7.3 3.2 0.7 3.49 1.25 3.70 0.4 0.2
’15 3 3 3 65 6.4 2.8 0.5 3.33 1.31 3.48 0.4 0.3

Profile: After finishing 2013 with the ninth inning role, Ziegler repeatedly threatened to recapture the title from trade acquisition Addison Reed. Ziegler’s been viewed as a righty specialist in past seasons, but excelled against opposite-handed hitters in 2014. But wait! A .190 batting average on balls in play is responsible for his unlikely success. The side-winder is still usually a specialist quality reliever. A knee injury eventually ended Ziegler’s season, and he may start the year on the disabled list as he recovers from microfracture surgery. (Brad Johnson)

Quick Opinion: Ziegler posted a career season, but a knee injury ended the year prematurely. Due to career-long problems against left-handed hitters, fantasy owners should take care when considering him. His status for opening day is up in the air.

Jordan Zimmermann

Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 5/23/1986 | Team: Nationals | Position: SP
Yr W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA WHIP FIP R9W WAR
’13 19 9 0 213 6.8 1.7 0.8 3.25 1.09 3.36 4.1 3.6
’14 14 5 0 199 8.2 1.3 0.6 2.66 1.07 2.68 4.8 5.2
’15 13 9 0 182 7.6 1.7 0.9 3.39 1.15 3.45 2.7 2.9

Profile: Steamer, SIERA and xFIP all doubt Jordan Zimmermann. None suggest he’s below average or anything, but they all doubt his suppressed home run rate or his inflated strand rate. Despite their doubts, though, Zimmermann has started 32 games for three consecutive seasons and slung a 2.96 ERA and 3.18 FIP over that period of time. And in 2014, he had the lowest walk rate (3.6%) of his career — not to mention one of his best strikeout rates (22.8%). Zimmermann is the real deal, and the Nationals can tally a lot of wins for him. But we also need to remember the Tale of Matt Cain and the Tragedy of Jeremy Hellickson — very, very few pitchers can beat their peripherals forever. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Zimmermann is an elite pitcher who comes with the risk associated with peripheral-beaters. His high strand and low home run per fly ball rates suggest an above average pitcher, but not an elite starter. Fantasy owners will need to accept the possibility of a sudden Matt Cain-like reversal of fortunes if they are will spend top dollar on Zimmermann.





 

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