The Setup

It took Nyjer Morgan just three games with the Washington Nationals to confirm to his new fans that the organization had made the right move in acquiring him. Although he recorded his first three hits as a National that day, the real attention would be paid toward his defensive efforts against the Braves.

It was July 5, to be exact, and young Washington starter Scott Olsen was struggling with his command. Nerves were high as Chipper Jones strode to the plate, following a lead-off walk to Martin Prado. Olsen made his first pitch to Jones and watched in horror as it caught far too much of the plate. Jones reacted swiftly and, just like that, a bullet was heading deep into straightaway center field.

On an ordinary day, Jones reaches second base easily, Prado scores, and the Braves have the tying run in scoring position with nobody out. However, this was no ordinary day, and Morgan is no ordinary centerfielder. Upon launch, a blaze of red set into motion, stampeding towards the wall and then suddenly extending a lone arm. The ball tucked firmly into his glove, Morgan twirled and fired it back into the infield.

Two groundouts later, the threat was over. Prado was stranded on the bases, the Nationals’ lead was secure, and Washington would hold on for a 5-3 win. It was then that fans in the nation’s capital realized that their new centerfielder might just be the best defensive player in the game.

The Proof

It isn’t just Nationals fans who think highly of his abilities. Ultimate Zone Rating, one of the most accessible advanced defensive metrics that baseball has today, is in love with the man who calls himself “Tony Plush”. Developed by Mitchel Lichtman, a statistical analyst who once served as a consultant for the Cardinals, UZR produces an above- or below-average rating, measured in runs saved, for each player drawn from multiple defensive aspects — including range, throwing arm, and errors. By this metric, the 29-year-old Morgan is off the charts.

Morgan started last season with Pittsburgh (where he played left field), but was traded to Washington (where he played center) on July 1. Over the course of the season, his total UZR was an absurd +27.8 runs above average. Many analysts agree that Franklin Gutierrez was the best full-time defensive centerfielder in baseball last season, with good reason: his centerfield UZR was +29.1, but in nearly 400 more innings than Morgan played in center. For cases like these, we can use UZR/150, a playing time-adjusted figure which calculates the player’s defensive contributions pro-rated to 150 games, and therefore gives a fairer outlook to players with disparities. Gutierrez’s UZR/150 of +27.1 is just fantastic, but doesn’t look quite as impressive when compared to Morgan’s absurd +40.5 UZR/150 in his half-season in center. A half-season’s worth of data is not enough to definitively judge a player, but Morgan’s career numbers tell a similar story. For his career, Morgan’s UZR/150 in center is 39 runs better than average.

Don’t trust UZR? No problem. Baseball analyst Tom Tango organizes the Fans Scouting Report on a yearly basis, getting input from those who watch the players on a daily basis. In 2009, fans voted Morgan as the best defensive left fielder in the game by a fair margin, and he earned an even higher rating than Gutierrez did in center. And in case you think that this was the result of playing for teams with rabid fan bases, remember that Morgan suited up for the Nats and Bucs.

Need more proof? Morgan made a substantial impact on both his current and former teams. Through the time he was traded, the Pirates had allowed 16 unearned runs and had a 4.24 ERA against. In the 82 games thereafter, they allowed 29 unearned runs scored and the team ERA bloated to 4.92. Conversely, Washington allowed 43 unearned runs and held a 5.21 ERA through its first 77 games. Those numbers shifted to 40 unearned runs and a 4.80 ERA after Morgan’s arrival.

If his UZR is to be believed, and Morgan is the best defensive player in the game, then he should be expected to take between 15 and 25 runs off the scoreboard per season compared to an average centerfielder. On the high end, that would be the pitching equivalent of going from Braden Looper’s 5.22 ERA down to Chad Billingsley’s 4.03 ERA.

The Conclusion

Whether you’re a fan of numbers, a casual observer or both, there’s no doubt Morgan is magnificent with the leather. After some brutally tough seasons, Nationals fans have found hope in phenom pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg, but they should not overlook another terrific player who has arrived in their town.

Nyjer Morgan, Tony Plush, no matter what you call him, he’s a defensive wizard beyond compare.

Overall team outlook: A disappointing season capped by disobedience and disappointment, the Cubs finished just above .500 and seven-and-a-half behind the Cardinals in the NL Central. With mostly the same team intact, the Cubs will attempt to rally around a rejuvenated clubhouse atmosphere and claim the championship for the first time since 1908.

The Starting Rotation: Carlos Zambrano is always a spontaneous dugout tantrum waiting to occur. Last season marked the first in his career that he recorded more than 25 starts and failed to win double-digit games. Expect his ERA to climb as his home-run rate regresses towards league-average rates. Ted Lilly is coming off the best season of his career and shouldn’t be expected to replicate those numbers in full, especially the ERA. Ryan Dempster continued his new-found success as a starter in 2009 by again reaching 200 innings and double-digit victories. His ERA increased but his xFIP actually remained relatively static. Randy Wells figures to have a job locked in following his strong rookie season, but the fifth spot may come down to a battle between two recent acquisitions: Tom Gorzelanny and the green elephant in the ledger, Carlos Silva. Neither figures to be a particularly great fantasy option, but if you have to root for one, Gorzelanny seems more likely to succeed.

The Bullpen: Carlos Marmol is what some would call “wild” and what others would call “Rick Vaughn.” Barring manager Lou Piniella playing hot potato with the closer’s role, Marmol should be the ninth-inning guy. Marmol is one of the few pitchers in baseball who can claim a nearly 2:1 ratio on BB/9 and blown saves. John Grabow returns on a rather peculiar contract as the left-handed set-up man, and Angel Guzman, as well as Sean Marshall, should see some high-leverage opportunities.

The Startling Lineup: The Cubs organization doesn’t possess what many would call a prototypical leadoff hitter. Alfonso Soriano’s appalling season led to his removal from the spot in late June, which gave way to Kosuke Fukudome, and then Ryan Theriot. Cubs’ leadoff hitters scored nearly 100 runs last season, and whichever of the three gets the job this year should be a decent bet for similar production. The underappreciated Derek Lee figures to drive in most of his runs from the three spot while hitting his usual 20-25 homers and walking 70-75 times. If Aramis Ramirez can stay healthy, similar power production should be expected; just don’t bank on him repeating the .300 batting average, as his BABIP was considerably high. Newcomer Marlon Byrd, second baseman Mike Fontenot, and catcher Geovany Soto figure to fill out the bottom portion of the lineup with whoever remains from the top two spots’ battle. Soto had a rough run at things, with a failed drug test in the World Baseball Classic, and then a career-low BABIP and ISO. He’s worth gambling on for a bounceback with the rewards potentially high.

The Bench: Jeff Baker, Koyie Hill, Sam Fuld, and Micah Hoffpauir aren’t the most spectacular of groups, but at least they carry a better reputation than the Lemons of Dusty Baker’s time. Baker is the most versatile of the group and figures to get the largest amount of playing time, as he can play at either corner infield position, second base, or even the outfield. Hill is a no-hit catcher with relatively no fantasy value while Fuld and Hoffpauir’s jobs are hardly secure.

Overall Team Outlook: The Rays club figures to be competitive for the third consecutive season. Whether or not it has enough to secure a playoff position will be the question.

The Starting Rotation: One of the strengths for the team figures to be the rotation. Led by the underappreciated James Shields and the fiery Matt Garza, the Rays also boast a few tantalizing young arms alongside which their playoff hopes may ride. Shields is a workhorse who has topped 200 innings each of the past three seasons and should break the franchise single-season record for wins (14) sooner than later. Lacking offensive support has led to so-so win-loss records, but have no doubt about it, he’s the Rays’ best starter.

Garza shares something in common with the duo of David Price and Wade Davis in the sense that this could be a coming out season of sorts with a high probability at a career-best ERA. The highly touted Price started last season in Durham amidst much controversy but upon reaching the Majors showed he still had some things to learn. Davis, on the other hand, exceeded expectations in his brief showing with the Rays. His first start included striking out six batters through two innings.

With all that talent it’s easy for Jeff Niemann to be lost in the crowd, something the 6’10” righty is not used to experiencing. Niemann will have to wine and dine Lady Luck once more to repeat or top his rookie season. Each has double-digit win potential.

The Bullpen: One of the more surprising moves of the offseason was the Rays acquisition of Atlanta closer Rafael Soriano. In Atlanta, Soriano was flanked by lefty Mike Gonzalez; with the Rays he’ll be paired with J.P. Howell, who is equally as talented. The hard-throwing Grant Balfour and blasé veteran Dan Wheeler should also play big roles, but most of the saves will go Soriano’s way.

The Starting Lineup: The most glaring change for the Rays will come behind the plate. Incumbent starting catcher Dioner Navarro will take a smaller role with Kelly Shoppach on board. Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist figure to man the right side of the infield while the amazing Evan Longoria and Jason Bartlett cover the left. In the outfield, stolen-base threats Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton will welcome the long-awaited Matt Joyce, while Gabe Kapler receives a fair share of playing time as well. Despite their best efforts, the Rays figure to roll with Pat Burrell as designated hitter.

Last year, the Rays sent each of their non-catcher infielders to the All-Star game, a feat unaccomplished in some 40 years. Unlike some of the Rays’ recent lineups, this one figures to pack some power with the addition of Shoppach (who has as many home runs as Joe Mauer over the past two seasons) and Joyce. Zobrist and Bartlett don’t figure to replicate their 2009 performances, but then again, neither do Upton or Burrell. Look for Crawford and Bartlett to score runs while Longoria, Pena, and Zobrist drive them in. Nearly every starter has either home-run or stolen-base potential, as well.

The Bench: Willy Aybar, Navarro, and Kapler seem locked in as the top three bench players. The Rays have a plethora of positional players on the cusp of contributing to the big league club, including Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac. The question is more or less which can help more now and whose development will be hurt less.

Overall team outlook: The Padres played The Price is Right on the Titanic by throwing anything worth more than a few hundred thousand over the rails. New ownership and management are now in charge, and the club still figures to be relatively low in the payroll rankings, but the organization has some exciting young pieces through trades of Jake Peavy and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

The Starting Rotation: If nothing else, the Padres organization has a rotation that fits its park increasingly well. Chris Young is built like a pole who allows more than 50% fly balls and has issues preventing base stealers. Nevertheless, expect his ERA to improve on a 5.21 figure and consider him a contender to lead the Padres in victories. Correia is a guy who always had issues with the long ball while pitching with the Giants, which is a symptom for disaster. He had a nice run with the Padres last year, but expect his ERA to creep over 4.00.

The rest of the rotation will feature youngsters. Mat Latos looked impressive in his Major League debut and probably has the best stuff on staff, which means the potential for strikeouts, while Clayton Richard is a tallish ground-balling lefty. The fifth spot is going to be decided via a battle royal between a bunch of pitchers with marginal differences. Sean Gallagher, Wade LeBlanc, Aaron Poreda, and Cesar Carrillo figure to be the combatants. Poreda probably holds the highest value in most leagues.

The Bullpen: Heath Bell is surprisingly back, as the Padres chose against attempting to cash in his 42 saves. Most games held within Petco are going to be low-scoring in nature and prone to high-leverage appearances from Bell, which means the save opportunities will come regardless of the quality of team. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson represent two pretty good set-up men who figure to get a few save opportunities as well.

The Starting Lineup: Everth Cabrera jumped straight from the low minors and displayed an affinity for getting on and then stealing bases. He figures to continue leading off, collecting steals, and touching home once Adrian Gonzalez delivers. It’s unlikely that Gonzalez will pound 40 homers again, as the lineup around him doesn’t provide much incentive to actually pitch to him, but then again, this lineup is an improvement over what the Pads ran out last year, and Gonzalez walked nearly 120 times (22 times intentionally) and still smoked 40 over the fence. Gonzalez is one of two legitimate long-ball and run-producing threats, alongside the unproven Kyle Blanks. Scott Hairston also has some power and absolutely demolishes left-handed pitching. David Eckstein doesn’t do much in the way of things that are valued in fantasy leagues, but Chase Headley could represent a decent choice, if only for his occasional power. Nick Hundley isn’t worth anyone’s time.

The Bench: Scott’s brother, Jerry, figures to be the Padres’ super-utility player, taking reps in the infield and spacious outfield alike; he’s a pinch-running threat as well. Tony Gwynn Jr. will be the back-up center fielder. Meanwhile, catcher Dusty Ryan holds next to no value, and Oscar Salazar likely won’t see enough playing time to be worth a look.