The odds of Josh Hamilton beating Andy Pettitte on Monday night seemed minute. A good left-handed pitcher, Pettitte had to know that allowing a run or two early could be enough for Cliff Lee to secure a 2-1 lead in the series for the Texas Rangers.

There was no way Pettitte could afford to give Hamilton, Texas’ best hitter, a pitch he could drive with a runner on first base. Not in the first inning and not with Lee looming. Sure enough, he held true, but only until the fourth pitch of the at-bat. It was then that Pettitte threw Hamilton a cutter that caught far too much of the plate. Hamilton connected with an upper-body heavy swing and watched as the ball snuck over the right-field wall. Just like that, the Rangers led 2-0 only three batters into the game.

According to win probability added (WPA), Hamilton’s home run increased the Rangers’ chances of victory by 15.7 percent — pushing them near 65 percent. It is important to note that win expectancy does not measure the likelihood of the team winning by that margin or score, but rather the odds of the team winning after leading at that point in the game. That percentage also does not account for the quality of opponent or the pitching matchup. Hamilton’s home run likely would be worth more if Lee’s presence on the mound for Texas had been accounted for in the formula.

The entire sequence is a series of questionable decisions by Pettitte. Hamilton’s previous playoff opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, held him without an extra-base hit in 20 plate appearances by tempering the amount of fastballs he saw and choosing to instead pound him with off-speed and breaking pitches. The strategy proved successful and sparked speculation that Hamilton’s rib injury, which caused him to miss four weeks late in the season, affected his ability to hit those pitches.

Admittedly, questioning the pitch selection is basing the analysis on results. Most pitch-by-pitch analysis is, much like a curveball over the middle for strike three is a successful pitch only if the batter fails to shoot the ball into orbit and a slider below the zone that Vladimir Guerrero cranks for a double is a bad pitch regardless of intent or probable outcome. Such is the life for pitchers, and such is the second-guessing that will follow Pettitte for relying on his fastball against Hamilton, likely rendering the effectiveness of the strategy in Hamilton’s subsequent at-bats irrelevant.

Sure enough, Lee shut down the mighty Yankees lineup and proved that two runs were more than enough. Hamilton helped cement the lead in the ninth with a leadoff double to catapult the Rangers into the catbird seat in the American League Championship Series.

With the trade deadline long passed and the waiver process being complicated, and occasionally inaccessible, due to overzealous rivals, teams must look for alternative avenues of upgrading their roster for the stretch run. Sometimes those improvements come in the way of a farm system producing talent and other times an upgrade is as simple as getting an injured player back. This week in particular is full of the latter for four teams battling for playoff positioning. And in some cases, it’s remarkable that these clubs were able to survive without their stars.

Carlos Pena returned to the Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup Monday night and played a pivotal role in their comeback against Cliff Lee. Pena had missed 15 games thanks to a plantar fascia sprain in his foot. In his stead, the Rays used a combination of players at first base, but mostly relied on Dan Johnson. The former Oakland Athletics first baseman hit 30 home runs in 98 Triple-A games this season before earning a long-awaited promotion. Johnson didn’t record too many hits during Pena’s absence — as a .111 batting average reflects — but he got on base 39 percent of the time and showed some defensive skills, as well; the power he showed in Triple-A did not translate over, though, and that might be the biggest upgrade Pena offers.

The Rays don’t hit many home runs, but when they do, Pena is usually one of the few hitting them. ZiPS has him pegged for nine more over the stretch of the season, which would give him his fourth consecutive season with 30 or more homers and set him up well heading into free agency. Assuming that Pena and Johnson are about equal with the glove and on the basepaths, the man they call “Los” should be worth at least a half-win more to the Rays than Johnson would be over the remainder of the season. That does not mean Johnson will ride the bench with Pena’s return; he’s slated to become the Rays’ designated hitter against right-handed pitching.

Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley returned Tuesday night. These two could pass as the best second basemen in the league in any given year, so you can only imagine how much their teams missed them.

Given Pedroia’s small stature, it’s pretty tough for human beings of normal height to stand in his shoes comfortably. Unfortunately for Boston, nobody the Red Sox ran out at second base could fill his metaphorical batting shoes, either. Boston’s fill-ins combined to hit .255/.328/.466, which isn’t half bad, but comes up short when compared to Pedroia’s career .305/.370/.461 mark, or even his 2010 season line of .292/.370/.502. Factor in Pedroia’s usually outstanding defense, and he’s likely worth a little more than a win upgrade over the final part of the season. That might keep Boston’s playoff hopes alive a week longer into the season, but make no mistake, they are heavy underdogs without the services of Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury.

As for Utley, who tore a thumb ligament in late June, his return came weeks earlier than previously expected. The word around the Phillies had been September all along, but few complained when Utley took the field ahead of schedule. The back-to-back National League champions made due with Wilson Valdez playing second. Valdez’s hitting left something to be desired, as his on-base percentage failed to top .300 and his slugging sat below .350. While not quite the infamous Mario Mendoza, Wilson was pretty close to replacement level, meaning Utley on a torrid streak could produce a two-win upgrade. That could easily swing the balance in the NL East and wild-card races.

Utley and Pedroia weren’t the only fantastic second basemen to make their return this week either, as Martin Prado reappeared for the Braves. Prado’s pinkie injury kept him out for more than two weeks and came days after Chipper Jones suffered a season-ending injury of his own. With All-Star Omar Infante playing second base, Prado could shift to third base for the remainder of the season, where he played during part of his rehab assignment. Brooks Conrad has probably the most memorable hit of the season for Atlanta, but Prado should be worth at least a win over him.

However, that is not the only equation that needs consideration. Jones hit .265/.381/.426 this season while Prado hit .315/.357/.484 before heading to the disabled list. That isn’t the real question, though, as it’s Infante, not Prado, who now becomes a regular. Infante is hitting .339/.368/.416 and his ZiPS projection calls for a .310/.353/.393 line. Even if he continues hitting at a career-best rate like he has to date, Infante is a downgrade from Jones offensively. That’s without attempting to analyze whether Prado will be a defensive downgrade. The Braves are losing about a half a win with the bats and maybe a little more with the gloves. Atlanta is obviously conscious of this, and the Braves traded for Derrek Lee yesterday to try and compensate. He’ll be an upgrade over the slumping Troy Glaus.

Saving the biggest for last, Utley’s teammate Ryan Howard will return this weekend. To say Philly has missed the big man is an understatement. Mike Sweeney might be the nicest man in baseball, but he hit .261/.320/.261 while his platoon partner Ross Gload carried the pair with an OPS over 1.000 and two home runs. The pair split playing time nearly 50-50, meaning the result was an average hitting first baseman. Much like Pena, Howard should represent about a one-win upgrade over what those two were producing heading forward. Maybe more if he goes on one of his patented second-half hot streaks.

The Braves entered Tuesday night with a 2½ game lead over the Phillies. These comings and goings shake out to the Phillies roughly making up two to three games on the Braves if all else holds equal, meaning they should be extremely close down to the wire. So close that the deciding factor very well could present itself as the victor of the remaining six head-to-head games, which includes a three-game series to end the season in Atlanta.

As the second half begins — nice win by Tim Lincecum Thursday night — FanGraphs is looking at 10 players who are essential to the stretch run in each league; on Thursday we focused on the AL. What follows is the National League edition.

Dexter Fowler
The Rockies’ former top prospect offers a blend of speed and on-base savvy perhaps unseen since Kenny Lofton. Despite a legitimately horrible UZR in 2009 (minus-16.2 runs), Fowler is a better defender than right fielder Brad Hawpe. Assuming Fowler can cut down on the strikeouts (nearly 30 percent rate right now), the switch-hitter should be able to secure a full-time position, which would knock Hawpe to first base, removing the toasty Todd Helton from the equation while instantly improving the Rockies’ defense and lineup.

Nate McLouth
Acquired a little over a year ago from the Pirates, it seems that McLouth left his talent at PNC Park. McLouth is having the worst season of his career offensively and it’s not particularly close. His .269 wOBA is only part of the story, though, as he’s also played brutal defense (minus-6.9 UZR to date). A resurgence by Melky Cabrera or McLouth could help pull the Braves away from the outfield trade market. One worrisome factoid about McLouth is that he suffered a concussion in early June and might not be able to return for another few weeks.

Carlos Beltran
Beltran returned Thursday night; his overall return should knock Jeff Francoeur to the bench permanently — which would be nothing shy of a blessing for a team that desperately needs to rid itself of his dead weight.

Edinson Volquez
Another player making his 2010 season debut after the All-Star break, Volquez has recovered from Tommy John surgery and a suspension for PED usage. In 31 minor league innings, he has struck out 66 and walked only 21, which is encouraging. Another above-average arm in the rotation would make the Reds even more legitimate contenders for a playoff berth.

Jair Jurrjens
Same story, different verse for Jurrjens and the Atlanta Braves. If he can regain any semblance of the pitcher who posted consecutive FIP of 3.59 and 3.68 in 2008 and ’09, the Braves will probably run away with the NL East, leaving the Mets and Phillies to duke it out for the wild card.

Buster Posey
The Giants are the forgotten team in the NL West. If they were to get a bat like Dan Uggla, they’d be dangerous; their problem for the last year-and-a-half has been offense. Posey helps immeasurably with that. In 149 plate appearances this season he has a .409 wOBA, and could be the NL’s answer to Joe Mauer.

Manny Ramirez
Even if Manny isn’t quite the slugger he used to be in the golden days, he’s still much better than Garret Anderson and Reed Johnson, the men who have played in his absence. When Ramirez is in, the Dodgers have the best offensive outfield in the National League, and when he’s out, well, they have Garret Anderson (.467 OPS) playing in meaningful games.

Chad Billingsley
One of the league’s best-kept secrets, Billingsley deserves none of the grief he’s received for a so-so win-loss record and career-worst ERA. He is currently toting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career and as a result a 3.40 FIP, which is the second-best of his career. He’s been brilliant all along, and if that .337 batting average on balls in play can regress during the second half, everyone else might take notice.

Johan Santana
Ignore the ERA. Santana isn’t pitching very well. He has horrible strikeout and walk ratios relative to what we’re accustomed to, and the lone saving grace is his deflated home run rate. Santana has always been able to stay slightly below the league average for jacks given up, but he’s currently halving his career average. That won’t continue for long and it won’t be pretty if that relapse coincides with his other struggles.

Jon Garland
The Padres are the surprise of baseball, but things are about to get complicated. If the Padres stick to their plan, staff ace Mat Latos will be shut down before he goes too far over the 150 innings mark. Of course, that plan didn’t involve the playoffs, and yet here they are, in first place at the break. That makes Garland’s performance all the more important. He’s pitched well to date, with his best xFIP in years, but that needs to continue and perhaps improve when and if the Padres put the lock on Latos.

Josh Johnson’s fastball is very good. But against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday, it was nearly unhittable — and this was against the eighth-best fastball hitting team in the majors.

FanGraphs’ pitch type run values had Johnson racking up 1.42 runs for every 100 fastballs thrown (a career-best ratio). And though he wouldn’t throw 100 heaters on Sunday — only 61 four-seamers — he was every bit as dominant as that number suggests, and perhaps more.

Johnson’s final line on the day included eight innings, six hits, one earned run on a Carl Crawford home run, zero walks, and nine strikeouts on 117 pitches — 87 of which were strikes (74 percent). Each of Johnson’s main pitches were whiffed at least 10 percent of the time: 13.3 percent of his 30 sliders; 17.7 percent of his 17 change-ups; and 21.3 percent of his 61 four-seam fastballs. He also threw a handful of two-seam fastballs, but the story of the day was Johnson’s four-seamer which averaged 95 miles per hour and topped out just shy of 98 MPH.

In Johnson’s prior 14 starts, batters were swinging and missing at his four-seam fastballs a little less than 10 percent. Sunday was different: Johnson usually throws the pitch for strikes 65 percent of the time, but on Sunday, more than 80 percent of his four-seamers were a strike of any variety. Johnson pounded the zone with heat and the Rays simply couldn’t do much with the pitch all day, either missing or fouling them off. The most egregious offender was Jason Bartlett, who in one plate appearance facing Johnson managed four swings and whiffed on three of them.

Of course it’s hard to blame Bartlett for such struggles as he was essentially fed to a roaring lion. Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena both missed on four Johnson pitches, but they saw nine and seven pitches apiece. In fact, only two Rays who faced Johnson managed to make contact on every swing — those being Reid Brignac and John Jaso on a combined 10 swings. That may not seem like a big accomplishment, but on Sunday it was one worthy of enshrinement.

It was easy to overlook the Padres in the springtime. After all, their most recognizable face, Adrian Gonzalez, doubles as their only legitimate bat and he spent the offseason popping up in various trade rumors. The rest of the lineup and the pitching staff was filled with various unknowns — not in the sense that the Padres had no idea who was playing where, but in the sense that nobody had reason to know about these guys. Projecting anything but a last-place finish seemed optimistic.

As we near June, the Padres are not only out of the cellar, but actually way up in the attic. So, how are they doing it?

For one, the Padres’ rotation leads the league in xFIP, meaning they own the aspects their pitchers can control — namely strikeouts, walks and getting ground balls. It’s not just the defense-free parts of pitching the Padres have succeeded at, though. Clayton Richard and Jon Garland have sub-3 ERAs and former top prospect Mat Latos isn’t too far behind. The team’s pitching staff has been the best in baseball for the first two months of the season.

In addition to pitching well, The Padres’ staff also maintains the third-lowest batting average on balls in play throughout the league.

That kind of success is a credit to the Padres’ stellar defense and the cavernous ballpark they play in. David Eckstein is no longer a shortstop with a weak arm, but one of the more range-blessed second basemen around. Chase Headley is back at third base and ranks second on the team in ultimate zone rating, UZR, the number of runs above or below average a player allows at his position. Even the Padres’ center-field platoon of Tony Gwynn and Scott Hairston is excelling defensively despite sharing playing time. Those parts combine with the rest of the team to form the unit that ranks second in UZR and first in defensive runs saved in the league.

The one group of players that was expected to excel for the Friars was their bullpen. Sure enough, the Padres’ relief corps has also been the best in baseball, turning games into six inning affairs and converting nearly every lead the team gets into a victory. Closer Heath Bell has led the way, but unheralded setup men such as Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams have each been lights out as well. The Padres bullpen is both deep and talented, and has given Bud Black numerous options with which to shut down opposing hitters in close games.

Perhaps we should have seen the Padres success coming after all. Given the recent success of teams like Tampa Bay and Seattle in past years, this is hardly the first time a young rotation with a stellar bullpen and excellent defense has surpassed expectations.

Adam Wainwright pitched 233 innings during the 2009 season while posting a 2.63 ERA and a 3.11 FIP and earning himself a fair share of Cy Young Award votes. It would have been perfectly acceptable and understandable if Wainwright’s performance took a step back this season as hitters adjusted and Wainwright’s ERA increased. Yet the 28-year-old hasn’t taken a step back, and so far, he’s actually taking a step forward by pitching well enough in his first seven starts to record an ERA of 2.08 and a FIP of 2.55.

Seemingly the only change in Wainwright’s approach is an increase in the amount of breaking balls used. Earlier this season on TMI, Mark Simon noted how frequently Wainwright was using his curve last year, and he is even more reliant on his breaking stuff this season.

Throughout his career, about half of the pitches Wainwright threw were fastballs. This season he’s throwing his heater less than 42 percent of the time and instead focusing on his always excellent slider and curve. FanGraphs’ linear weights based on pitch type give run values for each offering, and for his career, Wainwright’s curve is worth 45.2 runs above average and his slider 35.3 runs. It’s a stark contrast from the minus-7.6 runs his fastball is valued at, or the plus-3.9 run value of his change-up.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Wainwright’s success is how predictable his usage has become. The only counts in which Wainwright is throwing a fastball more than 50 percent of the time are obvious fastball situations (1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1, and 3-2). He’s using his curveball more than 70 percent of the time in 0-2 counts, and nearly 60 percent of the time in 1-2 and 2-2 counts.

When Wainwright gets ahead –- and he usually does –- batters have to know the hammer is on the way, and yet they still can’t hit the thing. Nearly 13 percent of the curves Wainwright has thrown have been swung at and missed and roughly 70 percent have been strikes –- whether it be of the foul, called, or swinging variety. As far as out pitches go, it’s hard to find one that gets the job done as often as Wainwright’s curve, and it’s easy to see why he’s on the path to a career year.

Both Felix Hernandez and Josh Beckett were given hefty contract extensions this past offseason, with both of their teams paying them to pitch like aces. Both right-handers were on the mound Monday night, and while one of them is looking like a very wise investment, the other is not. And there’s a pretty simple explanation as to why.

King Felix drew the Kansas City Royals to close out his April slate and held the hot-hitting Royals to two earned runs through seven innings. Hernandez did walk three but also struck out seven. The most notable thing about his outing — besides the fact that his team failed to score while he was in the game — was his ground-ball rate. Prior to the start, 62 percent of batted balls against Hernandez this season were of the ground-ball variety, a mark that will represent a career high if it holds up. (His career ground-ball rate is 57 percent.) On Monday night, 14 of the 23 balls put into play by the Royals were on the ground — or roughly 61 percent.

The reason for Hernandez’s increased ground-ball rate is his increased sinker velocity. Pitch f/x data collected from the 2009 and 2010 seasons says Hernandez is throwing his sinker nearly 94 mph on average thus far this season, while the pitch was closer to 90 mph last season. The 24-year-old might lose some velocity over the grind of a long season, but for now, Herandez’s sinker is simply overpowering hitters, and his 2.15 ERA suggests as much.

As for Beckett, he was striking out just 5.96 batters per nine innings entering Monday’s affair with the Toronto Blue Jays and had a 5.26 ERA. The Jays lead the league in strikeout percentage, making them the perfect opponent for Beckett to rack up some K’s against, right? Wrong. Beckett lasted all of three innings while allowing eight earned runs on nine hits to go with three strikeouts, three walks and a home run allowed. His ERA is now 7.22.

The biggest shifts in Beckett’s game are an increased number of changeups and a decreased number of swinging strikes. Beckett is using his changeup more than he ever has with Boston, and the results have not been pretty. FanGraphs’ run values suggest the changeup is his worst pitch on a rate basis, and it’s not particularly close. For every 100 changeups, Beckett is costing his team nearly three runs. What’s odd about that is last year, when Beckett had a 3.86 ERA, his change was his most valuable pitch. For every 100 times thrown, it was worth 2.16 runs. This year, he is throwing it more than 14 percent of the time. Last year, he threw it 8.6 percent of the time. Obviously, something is wrong with the offering. And a look at the chart below tells the story: Beckett is leaving his changeup up in the zone far more frequently.

Meanwhile, only 7.4 percent of Beckett’s pitches are resulting in swings and misses, a stark contrast to his career percentage of 9.9 percentage. Swinging strikes correlate pretty well with strikeouts, so this is not what Boston wants to see from its $68 million-dollar man.

In both cases, the alterations to their pitch repertoires and the contrasting degrees of success could be just coincidence or small sample sizes playing with the numbers. Whatever the truth is, both the Red Sox and Mariners will need their aces to thrive if their playoff hopes are to be categorized as anything but just hopes.

David Ortiz shifted his approach at the plate in 2009, perhaps hoping to generate more power on inside pitches. But instead, the results have been that he’s not pulling the ball with power.

Over the winter, FanGraphs’ pitch f/x guru Dave Allen studied Ortiz’s struggles at the plate, focusing on Ortiz’s power and plate discipline. He concluded that Ortiz was swinging at pitches outside the strike zone and that it was a tendency developed over time — dating back to the days of the prehistoric and lovably clutch “Big Papi” era. But that wasn’t the surprising part. What shocked Allen was the type of pitches Ortiz swung more at in 2009: high pitches and inside pitches.

The above graphs are from the catcher’s perspective. The contours are estimates of Ortiz’s swing rate (and contact rate). So for a pitch at the solid line (50 percent contour), there is a 50 percent chance Ortiz will swing at it. Ortiz will swing at a pitch between the solid and dotted contour between 50 percent and 75 percent of the time. He will swing at pitches inside the dotted line more than 75 percent of the time. The graph shows that in 2009 he was more likely to swing at pitches up-and-in as compared to in 2007 and 2008. The next graph shows the same thing but for his contact rate — the probability he makes contact with a pitch if he swings. The contour lines here are 80 percent (solid) and 90 percent (dotted). Since the area inside the 2009 contour lines is much smaller, there is a smaller area in which he made consistent contact compared to 2007 and 2008.

In his study, Allen surmised that perhaps Ortiz thought he would generate power only on inside pitches, so he forced the issue rather than taking these pitches as balls and waiting on better offerings.

But this shift in approach led to a drastic decrease in Ortiz’s power to right field. In short, he was sapped of any power when he pulled the ball. It also led to a decay in offensive production. In 2009, Ortiz posted a career low in home runs per fly ball, and he has yet to homer this season. So far in 2010, Ortiz has put only four balls into play that were not groundouts. Two went toward left field, one to center and one to right. This is counterintuitive to his aggressiveness on inside pitches.

Here’s an illustration of his drop-off in pull power:

Interestingly, pitchers are feeding Ortiz fewer changeups and more breaking pitches (specifically curveballs) this season. It could suggest other teams think Ortiz’s bat control has diminished with his wrist injuries. In fact, his wrists could be so exaggeratedly slow that when he swings expecting a fastball, he makes contact with changeups. And, sadly, that might be an improvement over Ortiz’s typical 2010 result of a grounder or infield pop. Another discouraging sign for Papi this season is that he has missed on 44 percent of his swings, while the league average is 20 percent.

Is Ortiz done? It’s too early to say. On Monday, Ortiz took a ball to the warning track in center field and wound up with a double. It could be a spark — or it could be an ember from a waning flame due to age and injury.

In the land of spring training cliches, the change of scenery card is often played. “Player A is with a new team, and he’s having a blast! His struggles last year were because of his unhappiness with his old team. Watch out for Player A in the upcoming season!” The Chicago Cubs are sure hoping a new environment will do wonders for Carlos Silva, who they acquired from the Mariners for Milton Bradley. Frankly, it’s hard to be worse than Silva was in Seattle (6.81 ERA the past two years), and if recent history is any indication, a change of address won’t be enough to help his pitching.

For starters, Silva should be quite familiar with the plight of Ian Snell, his former Seattle teammate. Snell, was so unhappy with the Pittsburgh Pirates that he actually demanded a demotion. The Pirates obliged and then traded Snell to the Mariners last July. Snell responded by smiling and pitching worse with the M’s than he had with the Pirates – his FIP was 4.61 in Pittsburgh and 5.23 in Seattle.

Dontrelle Willis seemed poised for a breakout upon leaving the last place and frugal Florida Marlins for the contending Detroit Tigers prior to the 2008 season. Willis’ 5.13 FIP with the Marlins soon looked much better in comparison to the 8.30 and 6.22 FIPs Willis has posted with Detroit during two injury-hampered seasons.

Area code magic doesn’t always work on positional players either. Former top prospect Delmon Young was seen as a victim of a poor organization when Tampa Bay traded him to the Minnesota Twins prior to the 2008 season. Young did hit better with the Twins, going from a .315 wOBA to a .324 wOBA, but posted a career low .312 wOBA in 2009, and his defense has been a nightmare.

The Kansas City Royals hoped the tales of the lethargic and apathetic Yuniesky Betancourt were false when they took him on from Seattle last year. To Betancourt’s credit, he upped his wOBA by four points while wearing blue, but also saw his defense get worse, as he posted a -28.6 UZR/150 with the Royals, a steep decline from his already horrid -18.5 UZR/150 with the Mariners.

Three of the four projections listed for Silva at FanGraphs have him posting an ERA over 5.00 next season. Is there any reason to be more optimistic than that? We know Silva is not going to strike people out (3.0 K/9 for his career), so he’ll have to rely on his defense. On the plus side, he is leaving the DH league for the non-DH league. However, he is also leaving what is widely considered to be the best defense in baseball. And remember, while pitching in front of that defense last year, his ERA was 8.60.

In reality, the Cubs didn’t really want Silva, they simply needed to eat his awful contract (two years, $25 million remaining) in order to convince Seattle to take Milton Bradley off their hands, and the Mariners even threw $9 million into the deal. But if the Cubs think a change of address will reverse Silva’s fortunes, they’re going to be sorely disappointed.

Over the last couple of days, we have talked about how a player’s skill set can affect his ability to take advantage of his home ballpark. Yesterday’s discussion on Adrian Gonzalez noted that his opposite-field power made him a candidate for teams that have inviting left field areas. And while it’s likely he’ll be playing in a new park in the near future, there’s another elite left-handed hitter who we know will playing in a new park starting next month: Joe Mauer.

With the Minnesota Twins ditching the Metrodome for Target Field, everyone’s wondering how it’s going to affect the 2009 MVP. Mauer has hit 72 home runs in six years in the big leagues, including a career-high 28 a season ago. Of those 72, a staggering 46 percent have been hit to left field, and that number jumped to 58 percent a year ago. Since most of Mauer’s power is to the opposite field, the dimensions that really matter to him in Target Field are the ones to left and left center.

According to Hit Tracker Online, each of Mauer’s 2009 shots to left field went further than 350 feet. If Mauer continues to hit opposite-field home runs at this length, he’ll rack up even more round-trippers, since the dimensions of Target Field suggest that left field may actually be more welcoming to hitters than the Metrodome. At the new park, left field measures in at 328 feet, and left-center at 371 feet; the Metrodome checked in at 343 feet to left and 385 feet to left-center.

We’ll have to wait and see how the weather factors into the hitting environment, but based on the dimensions of the park, Mauer will love his new home more than his old one. And if the reports of him signing a long-term extension are true, he should be very happy in Target Field for years to come.