Much is made of how baseball in October can often be a crapshoot. The differences between the remaining teams, at this point in the season, are so small that nearly any outcome is reasonably possible. And yet, it would be hard to argue that when the dust settled, the best team from the American League and the best team from the National League are still playing. It’s a battle of baseball’s elite, with two great teams looking to exploit any minor advantage they can find. Let’s look at some of the areas that might make a difference in the final series of the season.

Cardinals X Factor: Allen Craig

No National League team needs the DH more than the Cardinals, as Craig’s foot injury has reportedly healed enough for him to hit but not really do anything else. Luckily for St. Louis, they’ll get a position to let Craig do exactly that in their road games, and adding him back into the line-up could be a huge boost for the Cardinals offense.

Craig might not have the stature of some of baseball’s more well known sluggers, but over the last three years, Craig ranks 15th in baseball with a 140 wRC+, meaning his offensive production is 40% better than the league average hitter. It’s difficult for a guy who racks up as many RBIs as Craig does to be underrated, but because he’s a first baseman who specializes in singles and doubles, he tends to get overlooked when discussing the game’s impact bats. But, when healthy, he absolutely has been one.

But the health remains a huge question mark. The Red Sox just exploited a beaten down Miguel Cabrera in the ALCS, and while Craig might be healthy enough to swing the bat, it is possible that Boston will find a way to attack him in a part of the zone that he can’t cover as well at less than 100%. Craig’s production is a wild card, and his ability to hit at something approximating full strength might be a deciding factor in the outcome.

Red Sox X factor: Xander Bogaerts

John Farrell inserted Bogaerts into the starting line-up for the final two games of the ALCS, and given how he performed, it’s basically impossible to see him returning to the bench for the World Series. The 21-year-old is a physically gifted hitter, but he’s been astonishingly patient at the plate so far in the post-season, drawing five walks in just 11 plate appearances. Bogaerts has actually walked more times in the postseason than Dustin Pedroia, even though he’s only started those two games in the first two rounds.

Bogaerts approach at the plate is extraordinary for a 21 year old, so Cardinals pitchers won’t be able to attack him out of the zone as they would be able to with most inexperienced rookies. While Will Middlebrooks possesses more power at the moment, Bogaerts gives the line-up more depth and another hitter who can run up a starter’s pitch count. And as he showed with his big double when he finally did get something to hit from Max Scherzer, he’s not just a walk machine, as he can hit too. The World Series may end being remembered as the coming out party for Boston’s next superstar.

Cardinals key reliever: Kevin Seigrist

The Red Sox feasted on the Tigers bullpen to advance through the ALCS, but they’re about to see something from St. Louis that Detroit didn’t have: a lefty who sits near 100 mph. Seigrist threw hard in the regular season, averaging 95.3 mph during all his regular season outings, but the last month or so, he’s taken it to another level; his fastball has averaged 97.7 mph so far in the playoffs. The only reliever in baseball who threw that hard during the regular season was Aroldis Chapman.

Interestingly enough, however, the huge uptick in velocity hasn’t let to more strikeouts, as he’s only struck out one of the 12 batters he’s faced in the postseason after striking out a third of the batters he faced in the regular season. Usually, increases in velocity also lead to increases in strikeouts, but Seigrist’s strikeout rate began to tail off as his velocity rose in September, and that has now carried over into October as well.

It’s possible that the extra velocity is straightening out his fastball, making it actually easier to hit than it was when he was sitting at 95. He hasn’t struggled so far in the playoffs, and having a lefty who throws 98 is a nice problem to have to figure out, but the Cardinals might want to consider whether or not the extra velocity is actually helping Seigrist, because they’re going to need him to go after Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz in big situations.

Red Sox key reliever: Junichi Tazawa

While Koji Uehara has been shutting down opponents in the 9th (and occasionally the 8th) inning, Tazawa has been nearly as important to the team’s playoff run in 2013. Between the first two rounds of the postseason, Tazawa has appeared in eight of the 10 game the Red Sox have played, and barring an early blowout, he’s a good bet to pitch in every game of the World Series.

The Red Sox middle relief is the shakiest part of their team, and with Uehara showing he can pitch multiple innings, the Red Sox will have the ability to bring Tazawa in in the sixth or seventh inning to help bridge the gap between the starter and the dominating closer. John Farrell has used Tazawa as more of a situational reliever in the early rounds, but Tazawa was an effective pitcher against left-handers this year too, and may be asked to take on a bigger role in the World Series.

Key Matchup: David Ortiz vs Randy Choate

Evan at age-38, Choate is still humming along as the epitome of the cliched left-handed specialist. Choate appeared in 64 games this year but only threw 35 innings, because he frequently is called upon to pitch to the opponents best left-handed hitter and then is promptly removed when he gets that guy out. In his five postseason outings this year, Choate has thrown a grand total of 20 pitches.

But you’re likely going to see Choate in every close game this series, and he’s going to be used to try and neutralize David Ortiz. The complicating factor is that, during the three games in St. Louis, Ortiz is likely to have to serve as a pinch-hitter, as the DH will not be in play in the National League park. So, Mike Matheny is going to have to anticipate when John Farrell will use Ortiz as a pinch-hitter, and get Choate warm in anticipation of that match-up. The key for Farrell might be using Ortiz in early critical situations so that Matheny hasn’t gotten Choate up in time, giving him a chance to swing the bat against a right-handed starting pitcher. For the Red Sox, success will be avoiding this match-up, and keeping Ortiz away from Choate whenever possible.

Cardinals key bench player: Shane Robinson

Jon Jay has been pretty miserable in the postseason, not hitting or fielding his position well, and Matheny turned to Robinson to make a surprise start in Game 6 of the NLCS; he rewarded his manager’s confidence with two hits the day after hitting a pinch-hit home run. With a few days off to get reset, Jay should be back in the line-up for the series opener, but if he continues to falter, don’t be too shocked if Matheny goes back to Robinson at some point in this series. He’s not a big bat by any means, but he’s a better defender than Jay, and might prove useful for the Cardinals in this series.

Red Sox key bench player: Quinton Berry

As we noted during the ALCS preview, Berry has never been thrown out attempting a steal in his Major League career, and he’s a real weapon as a pinch runner for the Red Sox. However, the Cardinals have a guy behind the plate who just shuts down the running game entirely, and replacing a big hitter like Ortiz or Napoli for the right to try and steal off the game’s best defensive catcher might not be an appealing trade-off for Boston. However, even with Molina behind the plate, Berry’s ability to put a stolen base on the table makes him a fascinating option, and if the Red Sox put him in the game, the drama of Berry-versus-Molina should be a lot of fun to watch.

Key stat: STL pitchers in NLCS: 1.77 BB/9

The Red Sox offense is notorious for taking pitches and drawing walks, but the Cardinals pitching staff just doesn’t issue them. Between them, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha have combined to walk five batters in their six postseason starts, and the Cardinals entire pitching staff just pounded the zone against the Dodgers, forcing their hitters to swing the bats if they wanted to put runs on the board. The Red Sox did a good job of mixing up their approach and getting more aggressive against Detroit when it was clear that their work-the-count approach wasn’t working, and they might need to just scrap it all together against St. Louis, at least until their pitchers stop pounding the zone on every pitch.

Modest proposal: The Red Sox should go back to Daniel Nava as their left fielder.

Citing his energy and some gut feelings, John Farrell essentially ended his left field platoon in the ALCS, giving Jonny Gomes regular starts against right-handed pitchers, even though he’s been used mostly against left-handers during the regular season. This promotion for Gomes meant that usual starter Daniel Nava was moved into a reserve role, and he’s now only hit 14 times in the postseason despite. This follows a regular season performance in which Nava hit .303/.385/.445, and hit .322/.411/.484 against right-handed pitching.

The move worked, in that the Red Sox won the series against the Tigers, but with the World Series title on the line, it’s time to put away the hunches and put the best team they can on the field. And the Red Sox best team against right-handed pitching — the only kind of starters the Cardinals have — includes Nava, not Gomes, in left field. Gomes can’t even claim the hot hand advantage, as he’s hit just .200/.259/.280 in the postseason, not a huge surprise considering he’s being asked to face elite right-handed pitchers, a role he’s just not made for. Gomes might be an intense personality whose energy sparks his teammates, but he can yell from the dugouts steps and inspire his teammates by encouraging them between innings.

Nava is a better player than Gomes, and he was the team’s regular left fielder this year for a reason. It’s time for him to get a shot to prove that he can help them win a World Series too.

The Cinderellas are dead, and so the ALCS will be a battle of two high payroll perennial contenders, but that doesn’t mean that this series isn’t interesting. It’s pitching versus hitting, old school versus new school, big name stars versus a balanced roster. What will be the key factors in this battle? Let’s examine.

Tigers’ X factor: Miguel Cabrera

It’s a little weird to call the best hitter on the planet an X factor, but the reality is that no one really knows what Cabrera is right now. Hobbled by a body that is betraying him, Cabrera has been an immobile singles hitter for most of the last six weeks, as his home run in Game 5 of the ALDS was only his second since the beginning of September.

As Jeff Sullivan noted, the Tigers primarily pounded Cabrera on the outer half of the zone for most of the series, and his home run came on a mistake inside. The Red Sox surely noticed that the pound-him-away plan worked, and are likely to continue until Cabrera shows he can drive the ball the other way like he is capable of.

Beyond just his questionable offensive skills, Cabrera remains a liability at third base, and at some point, Jacoby Ellsbury or Shane Victorino might decide to start bunting in his direction to see if he can adequately play the position. The A’s didn’t have guys who were particularly good at bunting, but the Red Sox have a couple who could use Cabrera’s injuries to get on base regularly, and if his health doesn’t improve, Leyland may still be forced to choose between Cabrera’s less threatening bat in the line-up and taking away free bunt hits from the Red Sox hitters.

Red Sox X factor: Shane Victorino

The Red Sox offense is built around David Ortiz, but over the last couple of months, Victorino has been the reason that this team was a run scoring juggernaut. After giving up switch hitting and batting exclusively as a right-hander, he became a different hitter, pounding right-handed pitching in a way he never had before. For the season, he hit .274/.319/.389 against RHPs as a lefty, but he hit .300/.386/.510 against RHPs as an RHB. And he’s going to see a steady diet of RHPs in this series.

The Tigers rotation is entirely right-handed, and their bullpen pieces lean heavily towards the right side as well. Traditionally, this would have been a problem for Victorino, but he’s mastered the art of getting hit on inside fastballs by right-handed pitching, and his swing has more power from the right side than the left, so he’s both gotten on base and hit for power against righties of late. If Victorino keeps hitting this well from the right side against right-handers, the Red Sox line-up will become basically unstoppable.

Tigers key reliever: Drew Smyly

The Tigers ALDS pitching staff consistent of nine right-handers and two lefties, and of those two lefties, one of them is starter turned long reliever Jose Alvarez. In effect, Smyly was the only left-handed pitcher on the team for the first round, and he’s the only one likely to get called upon to get David Ortiz out in a critical situation.

Ortiz is basically Miguel Cabrera against right-handed pitching, as he hit .339/.440/.652 against RHPs this year. Against lefties, he’s more Omar Infante, as his .260/.315/.418 line shows. Ortiz is going to love facing all the Tigers right-handers, but in late and close situations, he should be fed a steady diet of Drew Smyly, who held left-handed hitters to a .187/.225/.246 line this season. Smyly doesn’t have to be used only as a situational lefty, so they can bring him in to go after Jacoby Ellsbury and let him stick around through Ortiz, and he should probably pitch in every close game this series.

Red Sox key reliever: Ryan Dempster

If the Red Sox have a weakness, it’s probably the bridge innings between when the starters exit and when Koji Uehara enters, which is one of the reasons they acquired Jake Peavy at the trade deadline. Not only did Peavy boost their rotation, but he allowed them to shift Dempster back to the bullpen to strengthen their relief core.

While he’s been exclusively a starter since 2008, Dempster was a pretty good reliever with the Cubs from 2004-2007, and a move back into that role for October will give John Farrell another option to get multiple innings from a reliever who doesn’t have to specialize. Dempster’s fastball/splitter combination plays up in relief, and even as he had his struggles this year, he was much better against opponents the first time facing them. In his first PA against a batter this season, he had 66 strikeouts against 20 walks, but the second time through, that fell to 43/32. In a relief role, only facing batters one team each, Dempster could be a real weapon for the Red Sox again.

Key matchup: Prince Fielder versus Craig Breslow

Primarily, these left-on-left match-ups are fairly straight forward. Team brings in funky sidearming lefty specialist to exploit big slugging left-handed power hitter who is vulnerable to sliders low and away, and specialist throws nothing but sliders to big slugging power hitter. Rinse and repeat. This match-up, though, will probably not be much like that at all.

There’s no question that Prince Fielder is not a premium offensive player against left-handed pitching, as he’s hit just .267/.347/.457 against southpaws in his career. And Breslow, being the Red Sox primary left-handed reliever, will likely be called on to face Fielder during this series. But Breslow is not your traditional left-handed specialist, and in his career, he’s actually been equally effective against right-handed batters (.289 wOBA against) as lefties (.285 wOBA against).

Breslow is a lefty reliever, but not really a lefty specialist. With Cabrera hobbled, Fielder is going to have to pick up some of the slack, and he’s going to get the benefit of facing a mostly right-handed pitching staff without a true dominant left-on-left reliever in the bullpen. Breslow isn’t a bad option against Fielder, but as far as facing ace lefty relievers go, this is a pretty good match-up for Fielder and the Tigers.

Tigers key bench player: Andy Dirks

The Tigers left fielder for much of the season, Dirks has been unseated by Jhonny Peralta (and, weirdly, Don Kelly) in the playoffs, and only got three at-bats against the A’s in the first round. Dirks, though, is easily the Tigers best defensive left fielder, especially for the games in Fenway Park, where The Green Monster comes into play. While the Tigers aren’t a team known for their defensive skills, punting experience in left field during the games in Boston seems like a big risk, and letting Dirks handle those games is probably the best plan. Despite getting displaced in the first round, Dirks could be a big key for the Tigers in the ALCS.

Red Sox key bench player: Quinton Berry

The Sox aren’t going to need to platoon or pinch hit much in this series, since the Tigers are all right-handers all the time, so you’re probably going to see few substitutions from John Farrell. However, he will need to pinch run occasionally, and that’s why Berry is on the Red Sox roster. Including the postseason, Berry is 27 for 27 in stealing bases in the big leagues, so while he’s not as fast as Billy Hamilton, he is a similar kind of weapon off the bench. With the Red Sox starters not exactly being the speediest group in the game, look for Berry to get a few chances to run in this series, and given his track record, he’s probably going to be safe.

Key stat: Red Sox .325 wOBA allowed against right-handed hitters

The Red Sox have a bunch of good right-handed pitching, so it doesn’t seem like this should be a weakness for them, but they actually ranked tied for 24th in holding down opponents RHBs this season. And the Tigers have some pretty good right-handed hitting.

Some of this weakness will be neutralized by leaving lefties like Felix Doubront, Matt Thornton, and Franklin Morales off the roster or using them sparingly against the Tigers, but even the Red Sox right-handers had some problems against right-handed hitting this year. John Lackey, Ryan Dempster, and Brandon Workman were all better against southpaws this year, and although reverse platoon splits are usually just small sample size, these guys are not traditional right-handed pitchers who dominate right-handed hitters. Toss in two starts from Jon Lester, and this could be a nice series of match-ups for Torii Hunter, Omar Infante, and Austin Jackson.

Modest proposal: The Tigers should bench Jose Iglesias.

The Tigers acquired Iglesias from the Red Sox to patch the hole created by Jhonny Peralta’s suspension, but Peralta is no longer suspended and is the team’s best option at shortstop. They got him into the line-up by using him in left field in the first round, but the defensive downgrade in having Peralta running around the outfield — especially behind Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, two fly ball pitchers — is larger than the upgrade they get by having Iglesias man shortstop instead. The Tigers are a better team with Peralta at short and Dirks in left field than they are with Iglesias at short and Peralta in left. Dirks’ bat is significantly better than Iglesias, Peralta can play short better than he can left. Iglesias can still be inserted for defensive purposes, but their best line-up doesn’t include him in it.

The Red Sox and Rays have already matched up 19 times this year; the Red Sox went 12-7 in those contests. These two teams know each other, and there won’t be any secrets when the division series between them kicks off on Friday. So, what factors are going to determine whether the Rays can the turn the tide on their AL East rival and advance to the ALCS? Let’s take a look.

Rays X-Factor: Jose Molina

The Red Sox offense is notoriously patient, and no team in baseball swung at fewer pitches in 2013 than Boston did. Guys like Daniel Nava, Stephen Drew, and Jonny Gomes go up there looking to take pitches early to get into fastball counts, and this approach bleeds through the entire line-up.

Molina is the guy who could help the Rays exploit those tendencies. He is perhaps the game’s most notorious pitch framer, using a complete lack of movement behind the plate to convince umpires that pitches off the plate were actually in the zone. He’s gotten so good at this that getting rung up on a pitch off the plate is now occasionally referred to as “getting Molina’d”.

If Molina can turn a few early balls into strikes, the patient Red Sox hitters might find themselves regularly down 0-1 or 1-2 instead of being in good hitters accounts, and that makes things a whole different ballgame.

Red Sox X-Factor: Mike Napoli

With Matt Moore and David Price set to pitch the first two games of the series, and Moore likely slotted in for a Game 5 start if it gets that far, Boston’s going to see a bunch of left-handed pitching in this series. With David Ortiz likely to be somewhat neutralized, Napoli is going to be the team’s primary power hitter, and they’ll need his lefty mashing ways to advance in this series.

Boston’s offense was the best in baseball against right-handers this year, posting a 122 wRC+, but the team isn’t likely to see many right-handed pitchers if their right-handed bats like Napoli can’t do some damage. It’s not just that he needs to create runs, but he needs to help force bullpen maneuvers that bring right-handers in to face the rest of the line-up. The longer Moore, Price, and Jake McGee are on the hill, the better Tampa’s chances of winning. Napoli needs to be the one to make sure they don’t stick around too long.

Rays Key Reliever: Alex Torres

As noted, the Red Sox line-up is notably weaker against left-handed relievers, and Torres is the kind of pitcher who Maddon can trust to pitch multiple innings to maintain that advantage on days when the team starts a right-handed pitcher. Torres gave the Rays a brilliant season, pitching well against both lefties and righties, so he doesn’t have to be used situationally. If Joe Maddon needs to get David Ortiz out in the 5th inning, he can turn to Torres and still trust him to get the ball through the 6th or even 7th inning, as he faced 10 or more batters in a game five times throughout the season.

Red Sox Key Reliever: Brandon Workman

Workman may be an inexperienced rookie who posted a 4.97 ERA in his time in the majors, but expect John Farrell to ask him to get some important outs in this series, and don’t be surprised if he turns in some dominant performances. His ERA masks how well he threw, but his 26% strikeout rate could be a taste of things to come. Without having to worry about pacing himself in starts, Workman can dial his fastball up to 96 and attack hitters with power stuff, and he may very well end up doing for Boston this year what Trevor Rosenthal did for the Cardinals last year.

Key Match-Up: Jon Lester vs Evan Longoria

With Lester slated to pitch Games 1 and 5 (if necessary) for the Red Sox, there’s going to be a lot riding on his left arm. Unfortunately for Lester, the Rays best hitter is right-handed, and Lester is significantly weaker against opposite handed hitters. Delmon Young, Wil Myers, and Desmond Jennings can be beaten even by lefties, but Lester’s going to have to figure out how to keep Longoria from driving the ball. In their career, they’ve met 63 times and Longoria has eight extra base hits.

Rays Key Bench Player: Matt Joyce

With the acquisition of David DeJesus, Joyce’s playing time has taken a bit of a hit, and he was out of the line-up in both of the team’s elimination game victories. Joyce, however, is an above average hitter who can really hit right-handed pitching, and should be an effective pinch-hitter for Joe Maddon. The key will be to pick spots where John Farrell isn’t going to counter with a lefty, because Joyce is about as good at hitting southpaws as I am.

Red Sox Key Bench Player: Xander Bogaerts

Farrell has made it clear that he’s willing to consider pinch-hitting Bogaerts for Stephen Drew against tough left-handers if the situation is deemed necessary. Bogaerts turned 21 on October 1st and has all of 50 big league plate appearances, but there’s a strong likelihood that he’s going to be sent up to the plate to try and get a big hit in a key situation. Pinch-hitting is hard for anyone, and Bogaerts has started nearly every game he’s played growing up, but the talent is there for him to grab the big stage and announce his presence as the Red Sox next great star.

Key Stat: Rays team wRC+ of 108

Everyone always thinks of Tampa Bay as a pitching-and-defense team that scratches and claws out enough runs to win, but this isn’t that kind of team. This team can hit, and their offensive production overall was 5th best in baseball, once you factor in their home park. Their attack is more to throw nine quality hitters at you than to scare with a few elite bats surrounded by glaring holes, but their approach is equally effective. Don’t underestimate this team’s ability to score runs.

Modest Proposal: The Red Sox should bunt a lot.

The Rays are baseball’s most notorious shifters, moving guys even within the same at-bat based on what the count is and where they expect a batted ball to go on that specific pitch. They routinely take Evan Longoria away from third base and put him on the right side of the infield against a left-handed hitter, and teams rarely make them pay for this alignment by bunting the ball toward the abandoned position. Without facing a penalty for their actions, the Rays just keep shifting.

The Red Sox should make them pay when they leave a huge patch of grass unprotected, and with several days to prepare for this possibility, let’s see if they worked on pushing the ball down the third base line so they can take the free base being offered.

The regular season was supposed to be over today, but thanks to the Rangers and Rays, there are still six American League teams standing. Each of the six has a path to a November parade. Each team has hope, and the beauty of the postseason is that anyone who got here has a real chance to win.

However, almost all of them will fail. Despite their strength, there can only be one champion. Today, with hoping rising in different cities, we look at the achilles heel for each team and note that, if they fail, this significant flaw may very well be the reason why.

Texas: Weak left-handed bats

What follows is a complete list of Rangers hitters who posted a wRC+ greater than 100 — meaning that they performed above the league average — against right-handed pitching this year:

Adrian Beltre, 134
Geovany Soto, 126
Nelson Cruz, 122

That’s it. That’s the whole list. It’s two right-handed hitters and the team’s backup catcher. Soto isn’t likely to play much against RHPs in the postseason, and his numbers were basically a fluke anyway, so the Rangers can essentially run out two above average hitters against righties, and that’s only if they lean heavily on a guy who spent the last two months sitting on the sidelines serving a PED suspension.

Their best left-handed hitter against righties this year? Leonys Martin, who posted a wRC+ of exactly 100 against RHPs. He’s followed by mediocrities like Mitch Moreland, A.J. Pierzynski, and David Murphy. Those are not hitters that are going to scare anyone into taking out their right-handed specialist relievers, so any team with a decent bullpen of power right-handers is going to be able to go right after the Rangers without much fear.

Given the expanded bullpen options each team has in October, that’s a real problem, and it’s one that could end up sending the Rangers home early.

Tampa Bay: The rotation isn’t actually very good.

The Rays have been a pitching development factory for years, constantly churning out quality young arms and providing enviable depth. Every year, it seems, the team is bursting at the seems with too many good starting pitchers. This year, though, their rotation has actually been a bit of a problem.

The Rays starters posted a 3.82 ERA this year, and after you adjust for league and park effects, that rates as almost exactly average among the 30 big league teams. By FIP, they’ve been even a little worse than that, and their ERA is propped up slightly by the fact that their defense helps save some runs from scoring.

They still have David Price, and Alex Cobb has emerged as a real weapon, but it gets a bit dicey after that. Matt Moore’s got a shiny ERA but he still walks everyone and his peripherals suggest not to expect a similar performance in the postseason. Jeremy Hellickson is the opposite, getting terrible results from his mediocre BB/K/HR numbers after a few years of being a guy who outperformed his FIP. Chris Archer might be the best bet of the trio, but even he’s more decent than good. Once the Rays get past Price and Cobb, things are going to start tilting in their opponent’s favor very quickly.

Cleveland: Chris Perez.

There isn’t a team still playing that should have less confidence in their closer than the Indians. Perez has never been an elite relief ace, always skating by racking up white-knuckle saves and looking like he was on the brink of disaster at any given moment. After a solid enough first half, the wheels have come off the last few months.

Since the All-Star break, opponents are hitting .287/.355/.595(!) against Perez, as he’s allowed a disastrous seven home runs in just 27 innings of pitching. For a pitcher who basically has made his name on inducing weak contact — his walk and strikeout rates have always just been okay — the recent string of dingers has brought anxiety to any ninth inning lead. Keeping hitters from hitting the ball hard has really been Perez’s primary strength, and if he’s not doing that, then he’s not the guy you want protecting a lead in October.

The good news for the Indians is that home run rate is particularly fickle, and this is the kind of problem that could magically disappear. But pretty much every other team left has a dominating shut down ace at the end of their bullpen, and the Indians have a guy who they hope won’t keep pitching as badly as he has for the last few months.

Oakland: Bartolo Colon’s magic act can’t last forever.

Bartolo Colon, at age 40, finished second in the American League in ERA. The only other time in his career he posted an ERA under 3.00 was in 2002, back when he threw in the mid-90s and could reach 100 at times. Now, he throws 89 mph fastballs on nearly every pitch, and while the results he got from that plan were incredible, there’s just no way this can keep going on forever.

Specifically, Colon can’t keep stranding runners like he has. Here are opponents performance against him, split out by the position of the baserunners:

Bases empty: .276/.300/.369
Men On: .238/.275/.370
RISP: .185/.217/.309

With no one on, Colon was good but not spectacular. With men on base, he was very good. With men in scoring position, he was Clayton Kershaw. Except, you know, he’s not Clayton Kershaw. The primary driver of the difference in performance in those situations is batting average on balls in play, which is often a better measure of defense and luck than pitching skill. Colon’s BABIPs by those same three states: .314, .263, and .212.

Colon is not going to keep holding good hitters to a .212 BABIP with men in scoring position. That’s just not a sustainable number, or anything even close to it. Some of those balls in play are going to start finding holes, and when they do, his ERA is going to spike. Colon isn’t a bad pitcher, per se, but he’s not a 2.65 ERA ace either. His performance in the regular season is one of the main reasons the A’s won their division, but they should not count on his regular season success carrying over into October.

Detroit: Miguel Cabrera’s body.

Miguel Cabrera, when healthy, is the best hitter on the planet. Miguel Cabrera hasn’t been healthy for several weeks now. Cabrera’s been dealing with abdominal soreness for most of September, and more recently, his knees have been acting up. And he doesn’t look like he’s getting better.

Cabrera, despite playing through the pain most days, managed just two extra base hits in September, racking up one double and one home run. He slugged .333 for the month. Even when he hits the ball hard, he doesn’t seem to have enough speed to get to second unless the ball gets over the wall. He’s been reduced to a singles-and-walks guy, and that’s not the hitter that the Tigers need him to be in the playoffs.

Perhaps adrenaline will kick in, or Cabrera’s just been taking it easy with his team’s playoff chances all but assured. Maybe he’s going to get a second wind and remember how to pull an inside fastball. Lately, though, Miguel Cabrera has just looked, well, broken. He’s a big man, and bodies like his don’t tend to last forever.

The Tigers need to hope that Cabrera’s body is more bruised than broken, and that their franchise player can get back to being the dominant offensive force he can be when he’s healthy. Because without that guy in the middle of their line-up, they probably aren’t going very far.

Boston: Clay Buchholz is not actually back to 100%.

Here are Clay Buchholz’s 2013 strikeout rates, by month:

April: 27%
May: 25%
June: 18%
July/August: On DL
September: 17%

Before Buchholz got hurt, he was beastly, striking out one-fourth of the batters he faced and posting a 2.46 FIP. In his four September starts since coming off the DL, he struck out one-sixth of the batters he faced and posted a 3.88 FIP. His 1.88 ERA in those four starts since returning might make it seem like he didn’t miss a beat while spending a couple of months on the shelf, but he hasn’t pitched like the same guy who was destroying hitters in the first couple of months of the year.

The stuff backs up the reasons for concern. At his peak in May, Buchholz’s fastball was averaging 93-94; in his last start, he averaged 90 and topped out around 92. From the results, it looks like everything is just fine, but Buchholz is not throwing the same way he was early in the year.

Without Buchholz as an ace, the Red Sox rotation looks a little shaky. And there are real reasons to think that, given what we’ve seen of Buchholz recently, he’s not likely to pitch like an ace in the playoffs.

The 2013 season will end for 20 of the 30 big league teams on Sunday, and a majority of those teams have been out of the playoff race for quite some time. For rebuilding clubs or teams whose seasons didn’t go as they planned, the last few months of the year have been about playing for pride. Managers will motivate their players to continue working hard by talking about ending the season on a high note, so that when everyone reports to spring training the following year, they feel good about how they finished strong the year before.

This year, there are three teams who are going to miss the playoffs but are certainly ending on a high note; the Angels, Royals, and Nationals. Each one came into the season with postseason aspirations but have fallen short of the mark due to a poor first half performance. Since the trade deadline, though, all three have taken off. Here are their records through the first four months of the season, and then their records down the stretch.

If these teams had played all season like they have over the last two months, the Nationals would have won the NL East and the Royals and Angels would be in serious wild card contention. For the final 60 games of the season, these teams have played like they belong in the postseason. But will it help them in 2014?

Recent history says no. Below are the teams that finished strong in each of the last three seasons after poor starts that kept them from playoff contention, only now, we’re also going to list their record in the following year.

Of the six teams that made dramatic improvements in the final two months of the season, five of them finished below .500 the next year. None of the six made the playoffs in the year following their strong push to the end the season. In fact, their overall average winning percentage in the following season (.447) was much closer to their early season struggles (.417) than their late season surge (.587).

Logically, we shouldn’t be that surprised by these results, given that the time period of poor play is twice as large as the period of time in which the teams played well. If a Major League club struggles for four months and then succeeds for two months, we should still place a larger emphasis on the four months because the sample is twice as large. As humans, we tend to place a very strong emphasis on recent performance, but the evidence does not suggest that we should abandon what we learned early in the year simply because these teams made a good impression to finish the year.

The Angels played poorly for four months because their pitching was atrocious and their two high paid sluggers were severe disappointments. Those problems have not just magically disappeared. Same for the Royals and their inability to score runs. The Nationals are probably the most likely of the three to contend next year without major improvements, but even they should not be simply counting on their end of season run as a sign of things to come. All of these teams need to improve in the off-season, and should not be tricked into thinking that 2014 will pick up where 2013 left off.

Baseball just doesn’t work that way. Earl Weaver had it right when he said that momentum was the next day’s starting pitcher. A team’s ability to play well is minimally, if at all, impacted by their results the day before. By the time an entire winter has passed, and the team reconvenes for spring training, the impact of how a team finished the prior year is completely non-existent, at least in terms of predicting wins and losses for the next season.

It’s better to play well down the stretch than to fall apart entirely, but don’t read too much into late season performances. You are almost always better off looking at a team or players entire season rather than slicing it into arbitrarily smaller sections in order to spot a trend. All the games count, not just the most recent ones.

Last week, we looked at the teams that were getting the most production from their young players, noting that the Atlanta Braves are blowing away the field in contributions from players under the age of 25. Today, we’re going to do the reverse, looking at teams that are relying heavily on older players, and might have to start making plans for replacements in the near future.

These teams have gotten the most production out of players in their age-32 season, which means that they were 32 or order on July 1st. For reference, all listed player ages are as of that date, so players who turned 32 after July 1st are not counted in these groupings.

1. Boston Red Sox, +21 WAR

The Red Sox rebirth has been well chronicled, as they remade their team last off-season through a series of smart free agent signings. However, the plan also called for the team to lean heavily on older players, and no team in baseball has gotten as much production from guys headed towards the end of their careers as the boys in beantown.

Koji Uehara is 38. David Ortiz is 37. Ryan Dempster is 36. John Lackey is 34. Shane Victorino and Jake Peavy are 32. There is a significant part of the team’s roster that shouldn’t be counted on for long term production, and with players on the wrong side of 30, the end can occasionally come quickly. While Ortiz is unlikely to forget how to hit any time soon and Uehara looks better than he ever has, the team won’t be able to keep getting this level of production from these guys forever. Eventually, Father Time will catch up.

Of course, part of the reason the Red Sox were willing to acquire so many long-in-the-tooth veterans is that they have spent the past few years stockpiling young talent, so help is on the way. With top prospect Xander Bogaerts and young arms like Brandon Workman already contributing to the big league team, the Sox future seems to be in pretty good hands. But make no mistake, there is a changing of the guard coming. The Red Sox of a few years from now likely won’t look anything like the team that is headed for the postseason now.

2. New York Yankees, +14 WAR

While the Yankees haven’t received the same level of production from older players as Boston has, this is probably the scariest number for any team, because the Yankees don’t have a Xander Bogaerts waiting in the wings. In fact, the +14 WAR they’ve gotten from older players represents more than half of their total team WAR on the year, so they’re actually getting carried by end-of-career players like Hiroki Kuroda and Mariano Rivera.

The changing of the guard that is going to happen in Boston is already happening in New York, but unfortunately for the Yankees, there doesn’t appear to be a new guard ready to replace the old ones. New York is going to have to keep pushing for production from the younger part of the old guy pool, hoping for more value next year from guys like CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.

Given the dearth of under-25 production, the Yankees probably need something closer to +20 to +25 WAR from their older core in order to contend next year. The Red Sox managed to pull it off this year, but the fact that no other team in baseball is even close to getting that kind of production from aging players probably tells you all you need to know about the likelihood of repeating that trick. The Yankees are still the Yankees, and they still have a lot of money, but this roster has some serious problems.

3. Texas Rangers, +13 WAR

You might not think of the Rangers as an old team, since they’ve been infusing young players like Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, and Leonys Martin into their core for the last few years. And they still have high hopes for Jurickson Profar, who spent a good chunk of the year in the big leagues at age 20. However, once you get past those few core players, it becomes pretty clear that the Rangers have been more reliant on aging players than you might first think.

Adrian Beltre is 34, and the team’s best player. His defense is showing some signs of erosion after 15 years of elite performance, and it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to keep up this level of performance forever. Joe Nathan, at age 38, had one of the best seasons of his career. A.J. Pierzynski and Nelson Cruz were both useful role players who are set for free agency, and Cruz’s absence was offset by the acquisition of the 32 year old Alex Rios.

The rotation is young, and Profar could be a big boost if they can find a spot for him, but this team is sneaky old, and is going to have to start replacing some productive players in the not too distant future.

4. Philadelphia Phillies, +11 WAR

Not a big surprise to see the Phillies here, as they have one of baseball’s oldest rosters after years of pushing for World Series titles. They’ve collected a large number of veterans over the years, many of them highly compensated, and that group simply wasn’t able to produce enough to offset the lack of young talent that has been flowing into the organization.

The Phillies still have some quality players, like Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and kept star second baseman Chase Utley in the organization with a mid-season contract extension, but the Phillies veteran core is no longer good enough to carry the team to the postseason. This team needs some productive young players, and soon.

5. Toronto Blue Jays, +8 WAR

Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, and Mark Buehrle aren’t spring chickens any more, which is one of the reasons the Blue Jays didn’t trade away veterans for prospects at the trade deadline. While they fell flat in 2013, there are still pieces in place that make a 2014 run a real possibility, and they don’t have lot of time to waste while Bautista is still an impact hitter.

Every Major League team wants to win, but at the same time, each organization has to constantly balance maximizing wins in the present with maintaining a stockpile of talent and financial flexibility for the future. Loading up on expensive veterans might have a short term payoff, but in time, those old players aren’t going to be enough to sustain a competitive team, and if those players are making big money in their decline years, things can get ugly in a hurry; just ask the Phillies.

However, some organizations have figured out how to both contend and build for the future at the same time. In order to look at which teams have done the best job of getting value from young talent that they can build around in the future, I’ve broken down every team’s total FanGraphs WAR into three age groups: young players (25 and under), in their primes (26-31), and aging veterans (32 and up). Today, we’re going to focus on the teams that have gotten the most value from players no older than 25, giving them a core nucleus to build around both now and in the future.

Atlanta Braves, +24 WAR

The Braves are destroying every other team in baseball in production from young talent this season, and they boast perhaps the best crop of young Major Leaguers in the entire game. On the position player side, they are led by three 23-year-olds in Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman. The “old guy” in the middle of their order is Justin Upton, who played most of the year at 25 before turning 26 a few weeks ago. Their rotation boasts both Mike Minor (25) and Julio Teheran (22), while Alex Wood (22) has provided value both as a starter and a reliever. Oh, and they have some guy named Craig Kimbrel (25) who is okay at closing out games.

The Braves have the best record in baseball, and they’re doing it with one of the youngest group of core players in the sport. Other teams that have similar aged players in key positions are focused solely on rebuilding and accumulating experience, while the Braves are riding their host of young kids to a potential World Series title.

The Braves have long been known as a player development machine, but the group they’ve put together might just be their most impressive collection yet. 60% of their total team WAR has come from the young player group. For comparison, the Braves have gotten more production from players 25-and-under than the Mariners, Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Cubs, Padres, Astros, Yankees, and Twins combined. 10 big league franchises, several of them in full on rebuilding mode with a primary focus on acquiring and developing young talent, and even if you put them all together, they don’t have enough good young players to match what the 2013 Braves have amassed.

The Cardinals, Rays, and others deserve the praise that is regularly heaped upon them, but let’s not overlook what Frank Wren and his staff have done in Atlanta. This is a great team built around players who aren’t likely to get worse any time soon.

Anaheim Angels, +14 WAR

This is almost entirely Mike Trout. In fact, Trout’s +10 WAR would rate as the 6th best mark of any team’s under-25 total all by himself. Having the very best young player in baseball — and maybe the best young player anyone has ever seen — is obviously a huge advantage, but Trout isn’t the only young talent the Angels have, even if it feels that way sometimes. Garrett Richards has developed into a pretty interesting pitcher this year, while Kole Calhoun is establishing himself as a nice option in the outfield for the future.

But, at the end of the day, this is basically Mike Trout’s team. If they can keep him and build around him, then there’s hope for the Angels, because he is the single most valuable asset in the game. There’s plenty wrong in Anaheim, but Mike Trout covers a multitude of sins.

Colorado Rockies, +13 WAR

This one might be a bit surprising, because the marquee players for the Rockies are in-their-prime guys like Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. We don’t necessarily always think of the Rockies as a team stocked with young talent, but they’ve gotten some really good seasons from Jhoulys Chacin (3.09 FIP while pitching half his games in Coors Field), Tyler Chatwood (3.57 FIP), Nolen Arenado (elite defense at third base), and Wilin Rosario (105 wRC+ while “catching”, even if he probably belongs at first base).

This is basically the opposite case of Anaheim, where they have one superstar young player and then a huge cliff. Beyond even those four, the Rockies have gotten value from guys like Corey Dickerson and Rex Brothers, so there’s a base of talent in Colorado that extends farther than Tulo and CarGo. It didn’t lead to a winning season this year, but it looks like there are some better days ahead for the Rockies.

Los Angeles Dodgers, +12 WAR

Yasiel Puig has been the Dodgers best under-25 hitter, producing +4 WAR in less than a full season’s worth of playing time. Their second best under-25 hitter? Clayton Kershaw, edging out backup catcher Tim Fedoriwicz in performance relative to his peers. On the offensive side, this is an old team with one phenomenal young talent.

The pitching is similar, as Kershaw is not only the best under-25 pitcher in baseball, he’s probably the best pitcher in baseball period. And he’s the only young starter to provide value in LA this year, but the young bullpen — led by Kenley Jansen — has been excellent. Almost all of the team’s performance from young players has come from those three players, but those are three pretty nifty pieces to build around.

Arizona Diamondbacks, +12 WAR

Like with LA, this is primarily driven by one star hitter (Paul Goldschmidt, +5 WAR) and one star pitcher (Pat Corbin, +4 WAR). They’ve gotten some production from the likes of A.J. Pollock, Didi Gregorius, Trevor Cahill, and Randall Delgado, but Goldschmidt and Corbin have really carried the brunt of the load.

The good news for the Diamondbacks is that there is reason for optimism for players beyond just those two. Adam Eaton had a disappointing rookie season, but his minor league track record is very strong, and if he’s completely healthy next spring, he could take a big step forward. Likewise, young arms like Tyler Skaggs might be more ready to contribute in 2014 than they did in 2013. The Diamondbacks have a solid young nucleus, and with Goldschmidt, they’ve got a franchise player to build around.

The AL MVP is going to be Miguel Cabrera, barring some kind of historic upset that would seemingly require a late season felony conviction of some sort, and even then, he might still win the award anyway. The outcome of the NL MVP race isn’t quite as clear, but it will very likely come down to Clayton Kershaw, Yadier Molina, or Andrew McCutchen. These are the players who are going to receive recognition for their efforts in contributing to a team’s success, and rightfully so; they’re all having fantastic seasons and are worthy candidates.

But, baseball is not basketball, and the impact any one player can have on a team’s final record pales in comparison to the sum of his teammates; just ask Mike Trout how realistic it is for even the game’s very best performer to “carry” his team to the postseason without assistance. The reality is that good teams are made up of numerous contributors. So, today, let’s talk about some of the guys who deserve recognition on MVP ballots, even if they aren’t going to occupy one of the few spots.

Russell Martin, C, Pittsburgh

While McCutchen is the star and pitchers like A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano get the spotlight, Martin might be the biggest factor in the Pirates success this year. Signed for a relative pittance — $17 million over two years — after the Yankees decided they didn’t want him back, Martin has been a revelation in Pittsburgh.

The bat is more solid than spectacular, but a 109 wRC+ from an everyday catcher is well above average for the position, and unlike many other good hitting catchers, he doesn’t get a break from the toll of catching by spending time at first base or designated hitter; in fact, Martin ranks 7th in the majors in innings behind the plate, which is where his value really comes through.

Martin leads the majors in runners gunned down stealing, with 33 baserunner kills to his credit in just 76 attempts, a spectacular 44% caught stealing rate, and it’s not the Pirates pitchers doing a great job of holding runners; Pirates catchers not named Russell Martin have allowed 37 stolen bases on 43 attempts, a 14% caught stealing rate that is in line with the awful performance the Pirates had as a team last year before bringing Martin in over the winter.

And that’s just the running game. As Jared Cross wrote earlier this week, catchers can have a significant impact on the called strike zone by the way they receive the ball, and while that piece focused on Yadier Molina and Jonathan Lucroy, Martin also excels at this skill, coming out at +19 runs according to Cross’ evaluation.

Martin currently ranks 12th in the NL in FanGraphs version of WAR even though framing runs are not yet included in the calculation. If you give him any bump at all for his contributions to turning balls into strikes, he easily flies into the top 10, and if you give him the full 19 runs that Cross estimated, then he’d actually end up #2, behind only McCutchen.

And when you look at the Pirates staff — with cast-offs like Burnett, Liriano, Mark Melancon, and Jason Grilli — taking starring roles for the best run prevention unit in baseball, it’s hard to not notice that Martin is the common link between all of them. His arrival has transformed the Pirates defense, and that is the unit that is carrying them to the postseason. He won’t get many MVP votes, but he deserves recognition for being one of the primary catalysts on the best story of the year.

Yunel Escobar, SS, Tampa Bay

Escobar’s back story is as much about his conflict with teammates and team personnel as it is about his performance, which hasn’t exactly been consistent either. The Braves tired of him in 2010, shipping him to Toronto simply because they didn’t want to be around him anymore, and the Blue Jays shipped him to the Marlins in the Mega Deal of the Winter in part because he performed terribly last season. The Marlins had no interest in keeping him, however, and only took him to offset some of the salary they were forcing the Blue Jays to take on in Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, so Miami dumped him on the Rays before he ever suited up for them.

Acquiring Escobar for a fringe prospect has turned out to be one of the primary reasons the Rays are in line to take a wild card spot, as he has returned to prior excellent form on the field and has apparently fit right into the Rays unusual clubhouse atmosphere as well. With a 104 wRC+ and terrific defense, Escobar leads all American League shortstops in WAR, and his presence has allowed Ben Zobrist to shift back over to his more natural positions, strengthening the team’s defense across the board.

And Maddon is a fan of Escobar’s personality, even if others haven’t been before. A month ago, Maddon told MLB.com:

“It’s entertainment, man, and this guy entertains,” Maddon said. “You watch before the game how he energizes the dugout before everyone takes the field. He’s always up. He’s upbeat. He brings a lot of positive energy to us.”

The players say they like him. The manager likes him. There is no evidence of dissent in the Rays clubhouse, and of course, Escobar is performing on the field. While his reputation might not ever completely dissolve, Escobar’s 2013 season is showing that in baseball, one organization’s trash can absolutely be another team’s treasure.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Atlanta

It’s always going to be referred to as the Justin Upton trade, as the Braves traded away Martin Prado and a group of prospects to land Arizona’s talented young right fielder over the winter, but the second piece that came east in that trade — third baseman Chris Johnson — has been just as important as the guy who they made the trade to get. Consider their performances side by side:

Johnson: .330/.366/.466, .361 wOBA, 131 wRC+
Upton: .262/.354/.469, .358 wOBA, 129 wRC+

By WAR, Upton leads +2.7 to +2.6, which is a tie, for all intents and purposes. Johnson isn’t a very good defensive third baseman, and there’s no way he’s going to keep hitting .330 in the future, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been an excellent offensive player for the Braves in 2013, and is one of the primary reasons that their offense has been so good even with prolonged slumps from the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward landing on the disabled list. Johnson is hardly the most recognizable player on the roster, but his contributions shouldn’t go unnoticed.

With all the new television money flowing into the game, Major League teams have ramped up pre-free agent contract extensions, keeping the best players away from the open market. When the off-season rolls around, you’re going to hear a lot of talk about what a lousy group of players are available, especially if Robinson Cano ends up staying with the Yankees. However, there’s one area where this free agent class is actually quite interesting: broken but perhaps fixable formerly great pitchers.

Among the hurlers who will hit the open market this year: Roy Halladay (2010 NL Cy Young), Tim Lincecum (2008/2009 NL Cy Youngs), Dan Haren (three time All-Star, finished 7th in 2011 Cy Young), and Josh Johnson (two time All-Star, finished 5th in 2010 Cy Young). Just a couple of years ago, this quartet would have made up the best rotation in baseball, as they combined to throw 749 innings and post a 2.67 ERA in 2011.

Over the last few years, though, things haven’t gone so well, especially this season. Over 419 innings, these four pitchers have combined for a 5.22 ERA. Halladay didn’t look like himself last year, and spent most of this season on the DL with a shoulder problem. Johnson was lousy for the Blue Jays in the first half and will end up missing the final two months of the season with a forearm strain. Lincecum has stayed off the DL, but his velocity is still missing and his ERA over 4.50 for the second straight year. Haren was so bad in the first half that the Nationals stashed him on the DL just to give him a break, and while he’s been better since, his 4.66 ERA overall is not what the team was hoping for when they signed him as a free agent.

In each case, the results these guys have posted make them look like a shell of their former selves. However, in each case, there’s reason for some optimism about the future, and a team with a significant appetite for risk could potentially rebuild their entire rotation in one fell swoop this winter.

ERA can often be a misleading indicator of future performance, and especially in one or two year samples, a pitcher’s FIP and xFIP will often give you more of an idea of what they’re going to do in the future. We’ve already noted that these pitchers have all been lousy by ERA this season, but FIP and xFIP tell a pretty different story in each case.

Tim Lincecum: 4.55 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.39 xFIP
Josh Johnson: 6.20 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 3.59 xFIP
Dan Haren: 4.66 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.81 xFIP
Roy Halladay: 7.92 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 4.58 xFIP

Lincecum, Johnson, and Haren all grade out pretty well by xFIP, which is based on their walk rates, strikeout rates, and ground ball rates. Halladay’s numbers aren’t as good, but his 2013 season covers fewer than 50 innings so far, and an off-season of resting his shoulder may allow him to come back stronger next year. Even including Halladay, the group’s collective FIP is 4.24, and their xFIP is 3.66, so some significant positive regression may be in store.

Of course, that regression is not guaranteed. Among the pitchers who posted a much higher ERA than xFIP last year was Joe Blanton, who was a total disaster for the Angels this year. Lincecum was on the list last year as well, and while he’s been better this season than last, his ERA is still much higher than his xFIP. There could be sustainable problems that are driving higher hit and home run rates for each of these four hurlers, and especially for pitchers who have health issues, their results can’t be entirely ignored.

However, in each case, these guys have a long track record of big league success. It isn’t a question of talent, as each have proven themselves more than capable of dominating Major League hitters when they’re healthy and locating their pitches effectively. None of these guys are Joe Blanton. As recently as two years ago, these were four of the elite pitchers in baseball.

Perhaps age and injuries have permanently broken them, and I wouldn’t expect any of them to turn back the clock and pitch like they were 27 again. However, as their underlying peripherals mostly show, the rumors of their demise may have been greatly exaggerated. For teams willing to take risks on short term bets for aging, past-their-prime starters, this winter looks like one of the best crops in recent history. You’re not going to rebuild your franchise around one of these guys, but if a team is looking for a rotation boost in 2014, there are several very interesting options to be found.

When the Red Sox shipped Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett to the Dodgers last year, they cleared a little more than $260 million in guaranteed contracts off their books. It was the salary dump to end all salary dumps, and that they happened to land a couple of flame throwing pitching prospects was just a nifty bonus. The primary motivation for the deal was to recoup the money they’d spent, giving them a chance to reallocate those dollars in a more effective fashion in the future.

This winter, that future is going to become the present. The Red Sox spent last winter redistributing their newly available cash to quality role players on short term contracts, and after the season ends, the team will not longer have any further commitments to the likes of Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, or Joel Hanrahan, and only Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, and Shane Victorino are signed through the 2015 season. Even after acquiring Jake Peavy at the trade deadline, the Red Sox are still expected to have approximately $40 million to spend this winter, and there are going to be opportunities for the team to put that money to use.

The primary decision, and the one that will shape what the rest of Boston’s off-season will look like, will require an in depth look at Jacoby Ellsbury’s value. Ellsbury’s return to excellence has been one of the driving factors in the team’s success, and it would not be easy to replace his production, especially considering that Ellsbury earned just $9 million this season. But, to retain his services for the future would likely require a 100% raise over a long term deal, and the Red Sox might not be that interested in signing another $100+ million deal with an outfielder whose value comes from speed and defense after seeing the Crawford deal go bad so recently.

If Ellsbury asks for something like $18 million per year over seven years — the 7/126 template that was given to Vernon Wells, Jayson Werth, and Barry Zito, making it both a popular and infamous contract total — then his days in Boston are likely numbered. With Shane Victorino capable of moving back to center field in the short term, and Jackie Bradley Jr around as a long term replacement, the Sox are not running low on center field options. The marginal value Ellsbury could provide to another team may very well be higher than the value he can provide to the Red Sox, who could fill his gap with a lower priced corner outfielder instead.

Of course, Ellsbury might not shoot for the moon, and the Red Sox would be foolish to closing the door on his return altogether. Having Ellsbury and Victorino play side by side hasn’t hurt them this year, and if he wants to continue his career in Boston at a less-than-market rate — say, $80 million over five years? — then the Red Sox should be willing to bring him back and figure out what to do with Victorino and Bradley when it becomes a problem. That scenario seems unlikely, however, with Ellsbury likely to command a much larger contract from a team badly in need of a center fielder who can also jumpstart an offense.

So, let’s pencil the Red Sox in for an outfielder not named Ellsbury. They’re also likely going to want a first baseman to replace Napoli, who has been decent but perhaps not quite as effective as hoped. They’ll probably also need an infielder who can slide between shortstop and third base, giving them some depth behind youngsters Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks. And finally, they’ll have a decision to make behind the plate, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia set for free agency.

$40 million and the shopping list includes an OF, an IF, a 1B, and a C? No problem. Here’s one way to spend those funds and keep the team in contention for years to come:

Sign catcher Brian McCann to a four year, $60 million contract.
Sign outfielder Carlos Beltran to a one year, $13 million contract.
Sign infielder Jhonny Peralta to a one year, $7 million contract.
Sign first baseman Michael Morse to a one year, $5 million contract.

McCann has had a huge season in his final year before free agency, answering some of the questions surrounding whether his body was breaking down after carrying a heavy workload in Atlanta since 2006. The Braves seem unlikely to re-sign McCann, but a qualifying offer is a near lock, which should depress the market and allow Boston to forfeit a late first round pick in order to pick up an impact bat at a reasonable price.

And as a bonus, the Sox already have McCann’s former platoon partner in David Ross, who they signed from the Braves last winter. McCann and Ross form a formidable left/right tandem, and Ben Cherington could get the band back together with a contract that lures McCann to Boston. While questions about his health are legitimate, McCann can produce enough to justify a $15 million paycheck even while spending parts of the year on the DL. Yes, it’s another lefty bat on a team that hasn’t hit right-handed pitching that well this year, but we’ll get to that part with the next three signings.

To replace Ellsbury in the outfield, the switch-hitting Beltran is something of the Red Sox ideal player: still productive, hits lefties, won’t require a long term commitment. The Cardinals outfield logjam may force Beltran to look for work elsewhere, and a move to the AL where he could get some days at DH when David Ortiz rests could help prolong his career. He would provide the perfect bridge to Bradley Jr, who could fill in as a part-time player behind Beltran in 2014 before taking a full-time job in 2015, when Victorino might be best served moving back to right field.

Additionally, the acquisitions of Peralta and Morse would give the team two more right-handed hitters who shouldn’t require multiple year commitments, and provide additional depth at multiple positions. Peralta likely won’t have a strong market after serving a 50 game suspension for being linked to BioGenesis, but he’s worth the gamble as a super utility guy who could split time between all the infield positions and play 3-4 days per week, or take over a starting job if either Bogaerts or Middlebrooks shows that they’re not quite ready for prime time. Morse was miscast as an outfielder by the Mariners, but could share the first base job with Mike Carp, allowing both to play the position where their lack of athleticism hurts the team as little as possible, and Morse can still hit lefties and fake it against right-handers if need be.

While the contract figures for McCann, Beltran, Peralta, and Morse are all speculative at this point, they’re reasonable price points for the players, as each comes with some kind of red flag but has enough upside to make the risk worth it. These players fit the mold that Cherington pursued last winter, allowing the team to make key additions when available without threatening the long term health of the franchise.

This is the kind of off-season that would set the Red Sox up for another strong push in 2014, and it’s only possible because of the Great Salary Dump of 2012. This is the trade that just keeps on giving.