On paper, the playoff race in the National League looks pretty boring. The Braves have a 14 game lead in the NL East, and while nothing is ever a completely sure thing in mid-August, they’re about as close to a lock to win their division as you’re going to find. The Dodgers, meanwhile, haven’t lost a game since some time back in May — okay, they have, it just feels that way — and look poised to run away with the NL West, especially if Matt Kemp ever gets healthy.

The NL Central is shaping up to be a fun fight, but with St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati fighting over one division title and two wild card spots, it mostly seems to be a fight to avoid the wild card game, with the two runners up likely to face off once the regular season is over. It’s not impossible to see Arizona running down one of the Central teams and perhaps adding a little more intrigue, but even if they make a run, we’re still looking at six teams fighting for five spots. The NL does not look like it’s in for any kind of dramatic finish.

However, there is a seventh team quietly lurking, hanging out on the periphery of the playoff bubble, not quite a serious threat yet but with enough potential to pull off a miracle. Of all the teams in baseball that look like their season may already be over, the Washington Nationals are the one who might just have a chance to shock the world and end up playing in October.

On the one hand, the Nationals making the postseason wouldn’t be a stunner, because this team was supposed to be good. They had the best record in baseball last year, and then added pieces like Denard Span, Dan Haren, and Rafael Soriano to fortify their defenses. With Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper ready for stardom, this was supposed to be the year of Natitude. Instead, pretty much everyone on the team has been a disappointment in some manner, and the Nationals find themselves 14 games behind the Braves in mid-August.

The division race is probably over at this point. Not officially, of course, as teams have come back from this kind of deficit before, but it would take a collapse of historic proportions for Atlanta to give the NL East title away. It’s theoretically possible — the 1995 Angels say hello — but it’s unrealistic to expect that kind of comeback; the gap is just too large.

However, with the Cardinals and Reds both showing some vulnerability and the Nationals winning five straight, sneaking back into the wild card race isn’t completely out of the question. After Wednesday’s games, Cool Standings gives the Nationals a 3.1% chance of winning the wild card. 1-in-33 odds aren’t very good, of course, but there are reasons to think that maybe the Nationals can be the one who pulls this kind of miracle off.

For one, they’re better than they’ve played so far this year. The thing about underachievers is that they’re underachieving because they’ve played better in the recent past, and some percentage of those underachievers are likely to play more like their old track records than their 2013 performances. The Nationals have no shortage of candidates for improvement over the final six weeks, starting with Dan Haren.

Haren is certainly not the front line starter he used to be, but he also is showing signs of pitching significantly better than he did in the first half of the year. He was atrocious for the first three months of the year, giving up 19 home runs in just 82 innings pitched, looking like the same broken down starter that the Angels dumped over the winter. However, after a short stint on the DL, Haren has been fantastic since June ended, having allowed just two home runs in 37 innings since July 1st.

Even during his early season struggles, his walk and strikeout rates were solid enough, but the frequent home runs were his undoing. Now, with the ball staying in play far more regularly, he’s been giving his team a strong chance to win, allowing a 2.43 ERA during this stretch. He’s not likely to keep that recent performance up, but his finish to 2013 should be a lot better than the cumulative performance he’s put up to date, and getting solid performance from Haren down the stretch would go a long way to stabilizing a rotation that was supposed to be among the league’s best.

And Haren has done this before. In 2010, the D’Backs got tired of Haren’s home run problem, dumping him on the Angels after he posted a 4.60 ERA over 140 innings. In Anaheim, the home runs went away, and he posted a 2.87 ERA over the rest of the season. It’s easy to watch a pitch give up a lot of dingers and think it’s just because he’s a terrible pitcher, but home run rates can fluctuate wildly and are often not very predictive, so don’t rule out a strong finish from Haren just because he gave up too many long balls in the first half of the year.

The other reason for some optimism? The Nationals offense has been hilariously un-clutch so far this year. Here are their position players batting lines — so that this isn’t skewed by the pitchers feeble attempts to hit — by the various leverage states, with leverage representing the relative importance of the situation based on the score, inning, number of baserunners, and how many outs there are.

Low Leverage: .251/.316/.401, .315 wOBA (13th)
Medium Leverage: .259/.315/.417, .319 woBA (19th)
High Leverage: .203/.269/.322, .255 wOBA (30th)

The Nationals offense hasn’t been great overall, but early in the game or when there aren’t men on base, they’ve been roughly average. However, in important situations with the game on the line, they’ve been completely inept, and no one is even in their same area code of terrible high leverage hitting. The second high leverage offense, by wOBA, is the Chicago Cubs, who check in at .276, 21 points better than the Nationals. The gap between 29th and 30th is larger than the gap between 19th and 29th.

As we detailed a few weeks back when looking at the Tigers un-clutch pitching staff, however, this is the kind of thing that has no real predictive value. There’s no reason to believe that the Nationals hitters just lack the intestinal fortitude to deliver in key situations, especially as essentially the same line-up of hitters ranked 9th in high leverage wOBA a year ago.

Even if the Nationals offense doesn’t get more hits in the next six weeks than they have in the first 4 1/2 months, a simple redistribution of when those hits occur should lead to more runs and more wins. It probably won’t be enough to catch the Braves, but the Nationals have enough talent on hand to make one final run. It won’t be easy to run down the three NL Central contenders and potentially Arizona as well, but the Nationals aren’t dead quite yet. If anyone is going to pull off a miracle comeback this year, it’s probably going to be the team in D.C.

Back in 1981, the Dodgers had a young pitcher named Fernando Valenzuela. He began the season as part of the team’s rotation despite being just 20 years old, and he proceeded to take the sport by storm. Despite being an untested rookie, he led the majors in innings pitched, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts. He was an All-Star, won Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award while finishing 5th in the MVP race. The hysteria around him grew so large that it earned the nickname Fernandomania.

Well, 32 years later, it’s happening again, only because of the anonymity of the 2013 Marlins, this time it’s happening in relative obscurity. Their young ace, Jose Fernandez, deserves a bright spotlight, because he’s having a better age-20 season than Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981. In fact, when we look at age-20 pitchers over the last 50 years, Fernandez’s 2013 season is near the very top.

Here is a table of all starting pitchers in the last 50 years who threw at least 120 innings in their age-20 season, along with their ERA- and FIP-. These numbers are just their respective ERA or FIP relative to the league average in that season, allowing us to better compare pitchers from different offensive eras. Like with ERA, lower is better, so an ERA- or FIP- of 50 would mean that their ERA or FIP was exactly half of the league average that year.

Year, Pitcher, ERA-, FIP-
1985, Dwight Gooden, 44, 59
2013, Jose Fernandez, 69, 75
1981, Fernando Valenzuela, 73, 74
1977, Dave Rozema, 74, 94
1975, Dennis Eckersley, 75, 97

By ERA-, Fernandez has been better than every 20-year-old pitcher since 1964 not named Dwight Gooden. Gooden, of course, had one of the great pitching seasons of all time, and set a standard that is unlikely to ever be matched. Coming in second to Gooden’s 1985 season is nothing to be ashamed of, and and the fact that Fernandez is keeping company with the likes of Gooden and Valenzuela is a testament to how good he has been this year.

And he’s getting better as the year goes on. Fernandez was fantastic in the first half, but since the All-Star break, he’s been on another level. In four starts, he’s allowed a grand total of six runs over 28 innings — a sparkly 1.92 ERA — and it hasn’t come through spectacular defensive support from his teammates. Over those same four starts, Fernandez has racked up 40 strikeouts against just seven walks and a single home run.

In fact, if we reset the list of best age-20 pitching seasons to focus on the three things a pitcher is most in control of — their walks, strikeouts, and home runs — we can see how much better Fernandez has been this year compared to other recent phenoms.

Fernandez has a FIP- of 75, meaning that he’s been 25 percent better than the league average based on his walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate. In 2000, Rick Ankiel caught the world by storm with an amazing debut, but his FIP- that year was 88, nowhere near Fernandez’s 2013 mark. The next year, CC Sabathia came up on the scene with a 95 FIP-. In 2004, Zack Greinke put up a 99 FIP-. In 2006, Felix Hernandez posted a FIP- of 90.

Since Fernandomania back in 1981, only Valenzula, Gooden, and now Fernandez have posted a FIP- below Ankiel’s 88, and like the other two, Fernandez is blowing that out of the water. The best pitchers in the game today weren’t anywhere near as good as Fernandez has been in his age-20 season. For reference, Fernandez’s FIP- of 75 is almost a near match for the 73 FIP- that Justin Verlander posted in 2011, the year he won both the AL Cy Young and MVP awards.

Need more evidence of just how incredible Fernandez’s accomplishments at this age are? Okay, how about this one. Matt Harvey has been perhaps the best non-Clayton Kershaw pitcher in baseball this year, and has rightfully garnered significant attention for his breakout season. When Matt Harvey was 20 years old, he posted a 5.40 ERA for the University of North Carolina. Fernandez is destroying major league hitters at the same point where Harvey was struggling against college amateurs.

Put Fernandez on virtually any other team in baseball — okay, maybe not the Astros — and Fernandez is the talk of the sport. However, the Marlins organization isn’t held in the highest esteem after yet another off-season of dumping salary, and so most of the talk about Fernandez’s team centers around when they’ll trade Giancarlo Stanton. However, if we’d put down the trade rumors long enough to watch the Marlins play, we’d find that perhaps their star attraction is no longer the right fielder who hits the ball 500 feet. The Marlins still have Giancarlo Stanton, but this might just be Jose Fernandez’s team now.

When Dan Szymborski released his updated playoff odds to account for moves — or lack thereof — at the trade deadline, he noted that the big losers of July 31st were the Cleveland Indians. The deadline came and went, and the Tribe failed to add any talent to their roster, while the Tigers, Orioles, Rangers, and Red Sox make strong additions to bolster their rosters for the stretch run. Standing still while your competitors improve is equivalent to going backwards.

However, it should be noted that Szymborski’s simulations still had Cleveland’s playoff odds at 36.3%, a fairly robust number for a team with Ryan Raburn as their offensive hero. And since that post was published, the Indians have won two of three and pulled into the lead for one of the two wild card positions in the American League. If the postseason began today, the Cleveland Indians would qualify for the playoffs, and yet, a quick glance at their roster does not exactly resemble a list of All-Stars. How is this team making a playoff push?

It’s impossible to start anywhere but with Raburn. Coming off an unbelievably terrible year with the Tigers — of the 347 batters to hit at least 200 times in 2012, Raburn rated 346th in wRC+, ahead of only utility infielder Wilson Valdez — Raburn signed a minor league contract with the Indians in January, and has since been a revelation. Of the 284 batters with 200 more plate appearances this season, Raburn’s 169 wRC+ is tied for 5th with some guy named Mike Trout. On a per plate appearance basis, Raburn has been a better hitter than the likes of David Ortiz, Joey Votto, or David Wright. That’s not a bad return for a guy who got a non-roster invite to spring training.

Raburn’s success somewhat symbolizes this Indians team. A year ago, he was one of the game’s worst players, and at age-32, his career looked to be hanging in the balance. He’s responded by having one the best stretch of baseball of his entire career. And he’s not the only Indian who has come back from baseball purgatory.

Scott Kazmir hadn’t pitched in the big leagues since recording five outs (and allowing five runs) in 2011. The year before that, he’d been the worst pitcher in baseball. He then spent time in independent ball, and joined a long line of cautionary tales about getting overly excited about the future of young hurlers. Instead of accepting that his arm had given out, Kazmir worked to get his velocity back, signed with the Indians after a good run in winter ball– as a non-roster invite, just like Raburn — and has returned back to the form he showed when he was in Tampa Bay. His walk rate is the lowest of his career, and Kazmir’s success has stabilized the back end of a rotation that is still generally seen as the Indians big weakness.

However, a closer inspection shows that starting pitching might actually be the primary reason the Indians are hanging around the playoff chase. While their rotation may not be full of house hold names, their ability to avoid relying on terrible performers has proven to have a strong positive impact on their record. In 2012, 102 of their 162 starts were made by pitchers who ended the season with an ERA over 5.00, including giving 21 starts to Derek Lowe (5.52 ERA), 17 starts to Jeanmar Gomez (6.23 ERA), and 16 starts to Josh Tomlin (5.72 ERA)

This year, just 13 of their 109 starts have been made by pitchers with an ERA over 5.00, and none of those five project to start another game for the Indians this year. Instead of horrendous outings from everyone besides Justin Masterson, the rotation behind the Tribe’s ace has been quite solid if not spectacular. Kazmir’s resurgence has been part of that, but so too has the underrated dominance of Corey Kluber.

The young right-hander might not be a household name, but he sure is pitching like one. On the season, he has a 3.03 xFIP that rates #9 among qualified big league starting pitchers. He currently sits in between Homer Bailey and Cliff Lee, and once you adjust for the fact that he’s pitching in the American League, he actually moves up to #7, just behind Max Scherzer. Corey Kluber has been a revelation for the Indians this year, and has had as much of a low key impact as any non-Raburn player on the Indians.

But herein lies the rub; the Indians success to date is based on players doing things they’ve never really done before, or in Kazmir’s case, haven’t done in quite some time. While the team has more established stars like Masterson, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana, they had those players last year and won 68 games. Masterson and Kipnis are having better seasons than they did a year ago, but the team’s success this year is due to a far better supporting cast, and unfortunately, those role players probably can’t be counted on to sustain these performances.

Expecting Raburn to keep hitting like Mike Trout just isn’t realistic. Expecting Kluber to keep pitching like an ace isn’t fair to the youngster. Expecting backup catcher Yan Gomes to keep hitting bombs when he’s put in the line-up is likely a path to disappointment. The Indians have been heavily reliant on a bunch of players with mediocre track records playing like All-Stars, and yet they still only have a half game lead over the Rangers and Orioles in the wild card race.

Maybe some of these guys really have figured things out and are going to keep performing at a high level, but there re just too many guys on this team playing over their heads right now. Some of them will regress, and when they do, it isn’t clear that there are enough players on the other side of that coin who can pick up the slack. And so, while the Indians are a collection of great stories, this team looks to have serious potential for a second half fade.

Ryan Raburn can only carry you so far for so long. When the magic runs out, the Indians playoff chances might evaporate with it.

With a handful of non-contenders reportedly deciding to hang on to their best trade chips, the supply of quality pitchers on the market is quite thin. As a result, teams in the playoff hunt are having to look at players they wouldn’t otherwise be interested in, and tarnished pieces start looking more attractive given limited options. However, even for a contender in need of a rotation boost, Bud Norris should not be viewed as the answer to anyone’s problems.

The Astros 28-year-old right-hander will have some superficial appeal due to his 3.93 ERA and multiple years of team control, as he isn’t going to be free agent eligible until after the 2015 season. Unlike other pitchers changing teams this summer, Norris would not just be a rental, and could be penciled into a team’s rotation for the next few years. The only problem? Bud Norris isn’t particularly good, and shouldn’t be trusted to start a game in the playoffs.

His 3.93 ERA is mostly a mirage, based around an unsustainably low rate of fly balls flying over the fence. From 2009 to 2012, Norris posted an 11.4% HR/FB ratio, a little bit higher than the league average. This year, his HR/FB rate is just 6.9%, the 13th lowest mark of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. While not giving up home runs is definitely a positive, history has shown that HR/FB ratio is not very predictive, and Norris is more likely to go back to giving up something closer to his career number of home runs per fly ball over the rest of the season.

When he does, that ERA is going to go up in a hurry, because Norris’ strikeout rate has taken a dramatic turn for the worse with the move to the American League, going from 22% down to 17%. For reference, a 22% strikeout rate would put him in the same range as Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, and Derek Holland, while a 17% strikeout rate actually makes him the equal of guys like Miguel Gonzalez and Jarrod Parker. Strikeouts aren’t an absolute requirement to be a quality starting pitcher, but Norris hasn’t off-set the reduction in strikeout rate by limiting his walks or his fly balls, so he’s basically just pitching worse, not differently.

Beyond just the strikeout decline, though, is another significant problem, especially for a team considering handing him the ball in October: his platoon splits.

Because Norris relies heavily on his slider, he’s able to dominate right-handed batters but is much less effective against left-handed hitters. This season, RHBs are hitting .240/.305/.315 against him, while LHBs are at .300/.365/.494. Of the 117 qualified starting pitchers this season, Norris’ .372 wOBA allowed versus left-handers ranks 104th, putting him squarely between Jon Garland and Jason Hammel. Allowing a .372 wOBA is essentially the equivalent of turning every left-handed batter he faces into Andrew McCutchen.

And no, it’s not just bad luck. Norris’ strikeout rate against left-handers is a paltry 12.5%, and 10 of the 11 home runs he’s allowed this season have been hit by a left-hander. His slider is a knockout pitch against right-handed batters, but just tilts right into a lefties wheelhouse. There are a lot of pitchers in Major League Baseball just like Norris, but most of them are pitching in relief, where they can be selectively used against right-handers in order to maximize their effectiveness.

As a starter, Norris simply has to face whatever group of hitters the opposing manager decides to put in the line-up that day. If that line-up happens to be stacked with good left-handers, he’s in trouble, and every potential playoff team in both leagues has good left-handed hitters to throw at pitchers just like Norris. Unless someone is planning on playing the Angels in October, handing Norris the ball probably isn’t a great idea.

Anaheim is exactly the kind of club that Norris’ skillset works the best against. They’re very right-handed, with their only four hitters posting an OPS over .700 — Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo, and Howie Kendrick — all hitting from the right side. Norris has made four starts against the Angels this year, thanks to his new home in the AL West, and he’s allowed exactly one earned run in 28 innings over those four starts, a sparkling 0.32 ERA.

His ERA against every other team he’s faced? 4.95.

Here’s how he’s performed against a few teams he might actually have to face in the playoffs, if he’s traded to a contender.

BOS: 6 IP, 5 R, .346/.393/.538
OAK: 12.2 IP, 14 R, .278/.371/.519
DET: 12 IP, 9 R, .292/.346/.500
STL: 5 IP, 7 R, .478/.500/.739

These teams all have good left-handed hitters, and Norris has been terrible against all of them. That isn’t likely to change in October, and any team facing him is going to stack the line-up with as many lefties as they can manage. Starting Norris against a bunch of left-handers with the season on the line is not a great bet.

Norris is good enough against right-handers to be a useful #5 starter, and he could probably be an effective weapon out of the bullpen in the playoffs if a team was willing to use him in that role. But that’s what he should be viewed as; a right-handed specialist who could be used situationally in October. If a contender put him in their playoff rotation, don’t be too surprised when a lefty heavy line-up makes it end poorly.

With the trade deadline now just a couple of weeks away, the obvious buyers are still waiting for several of the sellers to decide to actually sell. Maybe they just need the right kind of motivation, so we’ll provide it for them here. Here are five deals that AL teams should make in order to bolster their rosters for the stretch run.

#1: Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley and catcher Carlos Ruiz to the Oakland Athletics for outfielder Michael Choice, second baseman Jemile Weeks, and starting pitcher Michael Ynoa.

Utley is an absolutely perfect fit for the A’s; he does all the things that Oakland values, and despite his health issues over the last few years, he remains an elite player when he’s on the field. His 126 wRC+ this year equals what Dustin Pedroia is doing for the Red Sox, and no one thinks he’s over the hill. If he stays healthy, Utley could easily add two wins to the A’s total over their rotation of second baseman, and would provide another left-handed bat to a line-up that could use some thump from that side.

Ruiz, meanwhile, would provide the team with another catching option, and a guy who could form a formidable platoon with John Jaso. While Derek Norris hasn’t been bad and Ruiz has been pretty lousy since coming off the disabled list, he has continued to pound left-handed pitching, which is Jaso’s primary flaw. He’s also good at gunning down would be base stealers, and could serve as a defensive upgrade when the A’s want to put their best run prevention line-up on the field.

To get the Phillies to sell, the A’s have to give them enough of a return to forfeit the right to make Utley a qualifying offer; Michael Choice may be the bait that would make Ruben Amaro bite. Choice ranked as the A’s third best prospect on Keith Law’s pre-season Top 10, and while he hasn’t yet taken big leap forward, he’s held his own in Triple-A and isn’t that far from the big leagues. Given the Phillies reliance on Delmon Young this season, they could certainly use some talent in the outfield, and Choice could be able to contribute as soon as next season.

Weeks and Ynoa are lottery tickets whose early promise has mostly fizzled, but both could still develop into big leaguers at some point. Weeks is showing good on base skills in Triple-A, though he might end up as a utility infielder. Ynoa, fresh from giving up a home run in the Futures Game, still throws hard but might profile best as a reliever. These guys provide some upside, but Choice is the guy who makes this deal work for Philadelphia. The A’s would likely prefer to keep him in their organization, but facing an opportunity to make a substantial upgrade in a dogfight of a division race, they should take the plunge. You can replace a prospect like Michael Choice, but flags fly forever.

#2: Seattle Mariners reliever Tom Wilhelmsen, reliever Oliver Perez, “outfielder” Michael Morse, starting pitcher Joe Saunders, and shortstop Brendan Ryan to the Detroit Tigers for starting pitcher Rick Porcello and outfielder Avasail Garcia.

It’s no secret that the Tigers need to upgrade their bullpen, and this move could give them a potent relief corps in October. While Wilhelmsen has struggled with his fastball command this year, he was a dominating closer a year ago, and he may very well just be a mechanical tweak away from blowing hitters away again. The Tigers have been looking for a long term solution to their 9th inning problems for a while, and Wilhelmsen could very well be the guy to take that role for the next several years.

By acquiring Perez at the same time, they won’t have to rush Wilhelmsen into a high leverage role right away, giving him time to find his command in lower pressure situations. Perez has been a revelation as a reliever, showing that he can get hitters out from both sides of the plate, and would give the Tigers another left-handed reliever besides Drew Smyly who isn’t a pure specialist.

In Morse, the Tigers would get a power hitter to split time between the outfield — they’re already punting defense, so might as well go all the way — and 1B/DH, giving Victor Martinez some rest or Prince Fielder an off day against a tough lefty. Saunders gives them a steady #5 starter to replace Porcello who could potentially be yet another bullpen weapon in October, as his career numbers against left-handers are lethal, and he could more easily move into a playoff relief role given his splits. Ryan serves as a defensive upgrade and shortstop depth, capable of entering games late to provide a boost to the team’s run prevention.

Giving up Porcello just as he’s learned how to strike hitters out is a real cost, but he’s once again posting results that don’t line up with his talent level, and using him as bait opens the door for Smyly to move back into the rotation next year, plus keeps the team from having to surrender top prospect Nick Castellanos. The Mariners have the opportunity to give Porcello a better situation — they put their DHs in the outfield instead of the infield, and he’s a ground ball pitcher — and could use him as a mid-rotation starter for 2014, while Garcia gives them another outfield body in their search for anyone better than Jason Bay.

#3: Chicago White Sox reliever Jesse Crain to the Boston Red Sox for shortstop Deven Merrero.

The two Sox already swapped prospect-for-reliever in the Matt Thornton trade, but they should go another round by shipping Crain to Boston for a shortstop who is as blocked as any prospect in the game. Before landing on the disabled list, Crain was among the best relievers in baseball, and he’s overcome minor arm problems with no long term effects before. While he might not have the proven closer label, he’s a serious weapon, and the Red Sox need talent more than a guy with a label and an inflated ego.

Merrero, the Red Sox first round pick in 2012, might seem to be a high price to pay for an injured reliever rental, but he has no future in Boston. Defensive wizard Jose Iglesias has already reached Boston, and elite prospect Xander Bogaerts isn’t far behind. A move to third base is both impractical because of his limited offensive abilities and the presence of Garin Cecchini. There’s just no future with the Red Sox for Marrero, and the White Sox could begin grooming him as Alexei Ramirez’s replacement.

#4: Seattle Mariners designated hitter Raul Ibanez to the New York Yankees for starting pitcher Phil Hughes.

The Yankees have been dangling Hughes around for weeks, looking to exchange some of their pitching depth — especially a guy who is basically guaranteed to head elsewhere when he becomes a free agent at the end of the year — for an injection of offense. Ibanez is miraculously having the year of his life at age-41, launching 24 home runs in the first half of the season despite beginning the year as a bench player. The Yankees are clearly familiar with Ibanez, and his swing is still tailor made for their home ballpark. If he keeps defying age as he has this year, he could provide some much needed power to their line-up.

The rebuilding Mariners wouldn’t seem to have much use for a free-agent-to-be, but as an extreme fly ball pitcher with a home run problem, Hughes should be intensely interested in pitching on the west coast next year, hoping the marine layer can knock down some of his meatballs and turning them into outs. With a two month trial run in Seattle, the Mariners could see how Hughes approach would play in reconfigured Safeco Field. Just 27, Hughes could potentially be an interesting free agent for a team that lacks pitching depth behind Felix Hernandez and should have money to spend this winter, and swapping Ibanez for him would give them a few months to see him up close and personal before deciding whether or not to be a bidder.

#5: Miami Marlins reliever Chad Qualls to the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Josh Lueke.

After a couple of awful seasons the last few years, Qualls is throwing harder than ever and has seen his strikeout and ground ball rate both spike, allowing him to resume his previous position as a quality right-handed setup guy. With Kyle Farnsworth struggling, the Rays could use a righty who can come in and induce a double play grounder when needed, and Qualls fits the bill perfectly.

In Lueke, the Marlins would be getting a guy with the upside of a late inning reliever but a past that he won’t ever escape from. It would be best for MLB to have Lueke work in the most anonymous setting possible, and it doesn’t get any more anonymous than pitching for the Marlins right now.

The Detroit Tigers are supposed to be one of the best teams in baseball. With Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder anchoring the offense and a starting rotation that is the envy of everyone else in the game, this is a team that was built to crush the American League Central and play deep into October. However, they enter play on Friday at 50-41, just 2 1/2 games ahead of the Indians, and have been beaten in far too many games they should have won.

Part of that is their defense, as they’ve exchanged range at first and third base to maximize offense, and their pitchers pay the price for that trade-off. However, even accounting for the runs that their fielders give away, the Tigers have played better than a 50-41 team would indicate. At 5.1 runs scored per game and 4.2 runs allowed per game, the Tigers run differential suggests that they “should be” 54-37, which would give them the second best record in the AL and a comfortable lead in their division.

So, why are the Tigers winning fewer games than their runs scored and allowed would suggest? Put simply, they’ve been absolutely terrible in clutch situations.

On FanGraphs, we have a Clutch score for every team (and player), which is calculated by measuring the difference in a player’s performance based on the score, inning, and base/out situation for each play. Essentially, this statistic tells us who has performed better or worse with the game on the line than they have in less critical situations.

By this metric, the Tigers have been the worst team in the league, coming in at -4.8 wins; only the Cubs (at -4.4 wins) are also below -4.0, and likewise, they have also dramatically underperformed their expected record based on runs scored and runs allowed. You might think this is just the natural result of not acquiring a better closer over the off-season, but in reality, it’s their starting pitchers that have been the big culprit here; Anibal Sanchez (-1.35 clutch wins), Doug Fister (-1.11 clutch wins), and Rick Porcello (-0.81 clutch wins) account for a vast majority of the team’s rating.

Now, because this metric isn’t separating out credit for pitching from defense, the problem could very well be the poor defenders behind those pitchers, but the point is that the Tigers poor clutch performances have happened with their starters, not their relievers, on the mound. For all the talk about the Tigers bullpen problems, Joaquin Benoit has actually been excellent in relief, and has the highest clutch score of any Tigers pitcher, so he’s been even better than his overall numbers would indicate when the game is on the line.

I’m sure the Tigers would much rather not be singled out as the least clutch team in baseball so far, but I have good news that should give them confidence in their abilities down the stretch: clutch performance in the first half has no predictive value whatsoever.

Every year, there are teams that perform just as poorly in important situations in the first half as the Tigers have this year, and often more than one. Over the last three years, here are the teams that have posted clutch scores of -4.5 or worse in the first half of the season, and then for reference, their clutch performance in the second half of the season.

Year, Team, 1st Half Clutch, 2nd Half Clutch

2011, Astros, -5.5, -0.7
2011, Dodgers, -5.3, +1.2
2012, Phillies, -5.2, +4.3
2010, D’Backs, -4.7, -0.1
2012, Red Sox, -4.5, -1.9

From 2010 to 2012, these five teams combined for a clutch score of -29.2 in the first half, but then went on to post a collective +2.8 clutch score in the second half. Their first half performance in high leverage situations did nothing to tell us what they would do in similar situations in the second half.

And it’s not just the underperforming teams where clutch rating shows wide variance. I took the first half and second half clutch ratings for all 30 teams from each of the last three years, and in each season, there was no correlation to be found. A 1.0 correlation is found when we look at two items with an absolutely perfect relationship to each other, while a correlation of 0.0 would occur when we looked at the relationship between two items that have nothing to do with each other.

From 2010 to 2012, the correlation between a team’s first and second half clutch scores were, in order, -0.01, -0.04, and +0.04. In other words, first half team clutch score had about as much relationship with second half team clutch score as we would find from looking at the rate of ice cream consumption in Wisconsin and the length of an average commute in Istanbul. There’s just no evidence that a team who performs poorly in high leverage situations in the first half will continue to do so in the second half.

The numbers that are predictive, and correlate well from first half to second half, are the core numbers that the Tigers are excelling in, and the ones that rate them among the very best teams in baseball. Those performances are far more likely to carry over, and with a more even distribution of their play across critical situations, the Tigers should be expected to post a better record second half record even if they don’t make any huge upgrades at the trade deadline.

And if they do end up landing a couple more quality players for the stretch drive? Well, then Cleveland and Kansas City better pray for a miracle, but despite the Tigers mediocre record so far, Detroit is going to be very difficult to catch.

Last summer, Zack Greinke was the big fish at the trade deadline. A legitimate ace who could make a difference in the playoffs, Greinke was the guy everyone wanted, and the Angels eventually coughed up three players — including 2013’s breakthrough shortstop Jean Segura — in order to rent his services for the final two months of the year. Other high profile acquisitions included Hanley Ramirez, Hunter Pence, and Ryan Dempster, as teams loaded up with big names for the stretch run. However, in looking back at how the remainder of the season played out, none of those names turned out to be the most important acquisition of the deadline: that title goes to Marco Scutaro, and he should be a lesson for buyers this month.

When the Rockies traded Scutaro to the Giants on July 27th, he was hitting just .271/.324/.361, mediocre numbers for a hitter playing anywhere, much less one who got to spend half of his time playing at altitude in the most hitter friendly ballpark in the Major Leagues. At 36-years-old, Scutaro looked like he was just done as a big leaguer. His defense limited him to second base, he’d never hit for any power, and as a .270 hitter who didn’t walk much, Scutaro looked like a utility guy off the bench at best.

After all, he didn’t make the big leagues until he was 26, and he didn’t lock down a starting job until he was 28. Scutaro has been defying the odds his entire career, and it was inevitable that he was going to run out of juju at some point. So, when we saw him put up half a season of replacement level performance, it didn’t look like a slump; it looked like the end for a guy who peaked as a solid role player to begin with.

When the Dodgers acquired Hanley Ramirez despite his mediocre performance in Miami, it was considered “buying low” in hopes that a “change of scenery” would restart his career. These are the kinds of phrases that get tossed around when a team trades for a slumping player in his 20s. If he’s on the wrong side of 30, though, the consideration that it might just be a cold streak is hardly considered. We assume that any older player going through a rough stretch is struggling because his skills are eroding. As Scutaro showed, however, old players can slump too, and we should be wary of writing off players in their mid-30s with strong track records just because they had a bad couple of months.

For teams who want to try and repeat what the Giants did with Scutaro last year, here are a few players worth going after, even though they aren’t that young and their first half performance doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence.

Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago Cubs

Soriano is 37-years-old and posting an 89 wRC+, his worst offensive performance since 2009. At 2.8%, his walk rate is actually the lowest he’s posted since becoming a regular in 2001, and it’s not like he’s been a particularly patient hitter throughout his career. In addition to the lack of walks, his .174 Isolated Slugging percentage would be his worst mark since his rookie year. The power seems to be eroding, and that’s really the only tool that has been able to keep him a productive player through the second half of his career.

However, we shouldn’t just assume that Soriano’s power is gone for good. He had 67 extra base hits a year ago, and half of those went over the fence. His .237 ISO in 2012 was actually higher than his career average of .229, so this is not the continuation of any kind of recent trend. Soriano’s hitting for less power this year, but there’s no reason to think that his ability to launch home runs has completely disappeared.

Because that’s really all Soriano does well at this point, he’s not any kind of offensive savior, and should probably only be expected to produce at about the rate of a league average hitter. However, for teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, getting league average offense from a corner outfield spot would be a tremendous upgrade, and Soriano is unlikely to cost much of anything in trade. With about $27 million left on his contract — he’s scheduled to make $18 million at age-38 next year — the Cubs will have to pick up almost all of his remaining money in order to move him, but a contender could do worse than taking a shot on Soriano rebounding in the second half.

Scott Hairston, OF, Chicago Cubs

Hey, look, another Cubs outfielder. Hairston doesn’t have Soriano’s name value, but his skillset is very similar. At 33-years-old, Hairston has a nice track record as a guy who mashes left-handed pitching, but his aggressive approach at the plate limits his value to a part time role. Signed by the Cubs over the winter to serve as a platoon outfielder, Hairston has hit just .160/.224/.372, and has basically fallen out of the Cubs line-up at this point.

However, his offensive downturn is almost entirely based on hitting balls right at people. His walk rate, strikeout rate, and isolated power are almost identical to his marks from last year with the Cubs, when he posted a 118 wRC+ and was a high quality role player. His batting average on balls in play, however, is a staggeringly low .132, 155 points below his 2012 mark and easily the lowest of any hitter with at least 100 plate appearances this year. BABIP is much less predictive than other measures, especially over 100 plate appearances, and Hairston could easily go back to mashing left-handed pitching in the second half. For a team looking for a platoon outfielder, Hairston would be a nice low cost option.

Shaun Marcum, SP, New York Mets

Marcum, once an excellent pitcher in Toronto, has seen his career derailed by shoulder problems, and he’s currently dealing with both neck and shoulder tightness that could land him back on the disabled list. At 31-years-old and with a fastball that now averages just 85.3 mph, along with his current 5.03 ERA, it’s easy to see Marcum as a washed-up has been that doesn’t have the stuff to get big league hitters out anymore.

However, Marcums’ xFIP is 4.26, almost a dead on match for the 4.21 mark he put up a year ago when his ERA was 3.70. Even with his stuff degrading, his rate of home runs on fly balls (6.5%) is at a career low, and his strikeout rate is hanging around league average thanks to his excellent change-up.

Marcum is not an innings eater by any stretch of the imagination, but for a contender who is hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, Marcum could throw 50 to 75 decent innings and will likely not cost much in terms of prospects to acquire. He’s not going to fix your entire rotation, but if a team is looking for an adequate stop gap to help get them through the stretch run, Marcum could be a useful piece, even if he hasn’t looked great in the first half.

The Giants have been rumored to be involved in talks with the Marlins about acquiring Ricky Nolasco to bolster their starting rotation. Given that they’re currently rolling with rookie starter Michael Kickham — who has allowed 10 runs in 7 2/3 innings in his first two big league starts — in the #5 spot in their rotation, going after a solid innings eater like Nolasco makes a lot of sense. However, I’d like to suggest that the Giants expand their shopping list even if they acquire Nolasco; their goal over the next month should be to trade for two starting pitchers, not just one. By picking up two starters, they can get Tim Lincecum’s career back on track by using him as a true relief ace.

The blueprint has already been laid. After struggling throughout the 2012 season, Lincecum was deployed in relief during the playoffs last October, and the results were electrifying. His total line out of the bullpen during the playoffs: 13 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 walk, 17 strikeouts. There’s dominance, and then there was Tim Lincecum pitching in relief. He was absurdly good.

The primary difference was the effectiveness of his change-up. Now that Lincecum doesn’t throw in the high-90s anymore, he’s heavily relient on hitters chasing his change-up for strikeouts, and it’s a pitch he needs to be able to locate effectively in order to entice hitters to swing. According to the data from BrooksBaseball.net, During the regular season, hitters only chased his change-up 51% of the time during the regular season, but they went after it 61% of the time during the post-season.

And they weren’t swinging at hittable pitches either. His swing-and-miss rate on the change-up was 32 percent in October, up from just 21 percent during the regular season. In short stints, with hitters unable to make adjustments facing him multiple times in the same game, Lincecum’s change-up became a dominating weapon once again. And the Giants would be better off with Lincecum pitching well in that role, even during the regular season, than they are with him starting every fifth day.

I’m not advocating for Lincecum to be converted into a reliever who fits into a modern bullpen role. With Sergio Romo and an army of effective match-up relievers, the Giants already have a pretty good bullpen. However, utilizing Lincecum in that multi-inning relief ace role that worked so well in the playoffs could not only prepare him for that job in the postseason, but could pave the way for a bullpen renaissance of sorts.

Back before Tony LaRussa made the middle/setup/closer structure popular, it was completely normal for teams to have relievers throwing 120 to 150 innings in 60-80 appearances, getting six to nine outs before their day was considered over. 30 years ago, 18 relievers threw at least 100 innings, with Bob Stanley leading the way at 145. He wasn’t some kind of long reliever either, as he led Boston with 33 saves. It was just expected that each team would have a guy who could pitch multiple dominating innings whenever the team wanted to protect a lead.

As Bochy showed in October, that role is perfect for Lincecum. His change-up works really well against both left-handed and right-handed hitters, so he doesn’t need to be pigeonholes as some kind of match-up specialist. Since he’s already stretched out as a starter, transitioning Lincecum into a multi-inning reliever shouldn’t be terribly difficult, and will give the added perk of giving the rest of the Giants starters a chance to get out of the games a little bit earlier, increasing both their effectiveness and perhaps their ability to pitch well in October.

One of the main reasons relievers perform better than starting pitchers is that they only have to face a hitter once per game. As hitters get multiple looks at a starter throughout a game, their performance against them improves, and the pitchers tire as they throw more pitches. The combination of these effects can be seen in the Giants rotation this year:

First time facing a batter: .695 OPS
Second time facing a batter: .732 OPS
Third time facing a batter: .752 OPS

This is a league wide trend, so it’s not just a Giants thing we’re focused on. Starting pitchers really begin to fall off the third time through the order, and that’s where leads can evaporate in a hurry. Because the modern bullpen doesn’t allow for a team’s best relievers to be used until the 8th or 9th innings, a starter who runs into trouble in the fifth or sixth inning might give way to one of the worst bullpen arms on the team, who ends up throwing gas on the fire. To illustrate this point, here is the opponents OPS versus the Giants for each inning this season:

1st inning: .709
2nd inning: .678
3rd inning: .805
4th inning: .651
5th inning: .774
6th inning: .770
7th inning: .579
8th inning: .705
9th inning: .663

You see the big drop-off in hitter performance from those middle innings that are handled mostly by faltering starters or long relievers to when Bochy starts handing things over to his better setup guys. This is where Lincecum could have a huge impact.

By utilizing him as a bridge in those middle innings, Bochy could have an earlier hook with his starters, not allowing them to give up crucial runs in earlier game situations, and still have the confidence of knowing that he’s saved Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, and Sergio Romo for any late game leads that need to be protected. Linecum’s ability to get six to nine outs could serve to keep games close that might otherwise never turn into save situations, and if he responds as well to a bullpen role as he did in October, he’ll be far more valuable holding tight games than he would be as an inconsistent starter every fifth day.

Let Lincecum pitch in 2-3 inning outings every 2-3 days, and you’ll end up getting about the same number of innings from him as you would by keeping him in the rotation. In essence, by acquiring a second useful innings sponge — Scott Feldman would be a good fit for this role, for instance — to allow Lincecum to pitch in relief, they wouldn’t just be adding depth, but they’d be reducing the workload for their entire staff, and preparing Lincecum for the role he showed he could thrive in last October.

The Nationals were supposed to be one of baseball’s best teams. They led the majors in wins a year ago, and this year, they were going to have a full season of both Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, plus they added Dan Haren to fill out their rotation and Rafael Soriano to save games in the ninth inning. On paper, they looked like a team with few holes.

It hasn’t quite worked out that way. Harper got hurt, Haren has been terrible, and pretty much every role player the Nationals were counting on has taken a step backwards. The result is that they currently sit at 35-36, seven games back of Atlanta in the AL East race. As they head for the trade deadline, they’ll almost certainly be looking to boost their offense in order to make a strong push for at least a wild card and give them a better chance of running down Atlanta, but I have another suggestion: they should trade Rafael Soriano.

This is not to say that I think the Nationals should give up on 2013 season and start playing for the future, but I do think they can make themselves better for 2014 without really harming their chances of winning this year by using Soriano as a trade chip.

If the Nationals made Soriano available, there would be a market. There’s no secret that the Detroit Tigers are in need of a closer upgrade, as Jose Valverde is doing what you expect Jose Valverde to do — give up runs and generally instill fear into all Michigan natives every time he takes the mound — and Detroit cannot enter the postseason again with him as the de facto ninth inning guy. The Diamondbacks might also need a closer upgrade to reach the postseason, with Heath Bell giving up home runs left and right while J.J. Putz’s elbow keeps him on the shelf. There would be contenders interested in acquiring Soriano from the Nationals.

So, if the Nationals were able to take advantage of the demand for a quality closer, they could not only clear $14 million in salary off the books for 2014 that could be reallocated to an offensive upgrade next year, they could potentially turn Soriano into a piece that they need more than a one inning reliever. With the other options in their bullpen, trading Soriano might not even make their team substantially worse this season, and if they can turn Soriano into a decent back-end starter, it might even make them better.

Before Soriano was acquired, Drew Storen was in line to close games for the Nationals this season. His 4.34 ERA might suggest that it was a good thing they moved him to a setup role, but Storen’s underlying performance suggests he’s mostly back to the pitcher he was two years ago when he saved 43 games.

Storen, 2011: 6.6% BB%, 24.4% K%, 47.3% GB%, 3.32 FIP, 3.14 xFIP
Storen, 2013: 5.5% BB%, 21.9% K%, 52.9% GB%, 3.74 FIP, 3.35 xFIP

He’s gone slightly more towards a contact/ground ball profile at the cost of a few strikeouts, but the overall package is about the same, and he might trade some of those ground balls to get more strikeouts if moved back to the ninth inning role. Either way, Storen’s peripherals suggest that he’s more than capable of handling the ninth inning, and the drop-off from switching Storen out for Soriano wouldn’t be dramatic.

Of course, they’d have to replace Storen in the setup role, but 22-year-old Ian Krol — acquired as one of three prospects from Oakland in the Michael Morse trade over the winter — is flashing serious potential since his promotion, striking out eight of the first 22 batters he’s faced while throwing a fastball that tops out at 96. By trading Soriano away, they’d essentially be creating higher leverage opportunities for Krol, who will make the league minimum for the next few seasons and could become a dominant setup man in front of Storen.

That isn’t to say that Krol is Soriano’s equal, but it is hard to argue that the Nationals are better off with Krol pitching middle relief in front of Storen/Soriano than they would be with $14 million to spend this winter and the talent they could get back from shipping Soriano to a team with fewer quality bullpen options. Especially if Detroit or Arizona decide that Soriano is the piece that could put them over the top, the Nationals might be able to turn their relief depth into a valuable player for the future, similar to how they flipped Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos back in 2010.

Thankfully for the Nationals, both Detroit and Arizona are swimming in starting pitching depth, which is an area of need for the team with Haren’s struggles and a lack of quality options in the high minors. If Mike Rizzo could turn Soriano into a decent #5 starter, the difference in performance from that rotation spot could offset any downgrade they see in the late innings.

And, as an added perk, putting Soriano in play might make things a little more complicated for the division rival Phillies. Jonathan Papelbon has been assumed to be the potentially available proven closer in the NL East, and without any other competitors trading off ninth inning specialists, the Phillies might be able to extract some value in exchange for their closer while clearing salary off their own books, which they could then use to retool their roster in order to better compete with Washington in the future. Any team acquiring Soriano would only be on the hook for his salary through 2014, while Papelbon is signed through 2015 at essentially the same annual salary. The monetary difference alone should make Soriano more appealing, and Washington could essentially undercut the trade value of one of their closest competitors.

While trading Soriano might be viewed as a sign of giving up on the season, they could offset the negative PR by making simultaneous offensive upgrades and give their team a similar chance to sneak back into the playoff race that they have now. If it doesn’t materialize, they’ve freed up salary to allow for a more active off-season and a better team in 2014. Trading away talent isn’t always the same thing as giving up, and in this case, the Nationals can trade from a surplus to help their organization overall.

Coco Crisp is not a big guy. He’s listed at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds, and those numbers are often fudged upwards a bit. He’s been a big leaguer since 2002, and has spent a majority of that time hitting leadoff. He plays center field, and he’s also one of the most effective base stealers in the sport. If there was a poster child for the skills that allow a little guy to be a quality big league role player, it’s Coco Crisp. He’s had a long career as exactly the kind of player you imagine when you see a relatively short baseball player.

Except now, at age 33, Coco Crisp is becoming a power hitter. Well, actually, he started becoming a power hitter last summer, and it’s carried over to the 2013 season to the point that now we’re all noticing. And his transformation is one of the more amazing stories in baseball.

Last year, the first two months of the season were a total disaster for Crisp. After re-signing with the A’s to a two year, $14 million contract, Crisp was one of the worst players in the league right out of the gates. Last June 6th, he went 0 for 4 and dropped his overall line to .158/.213/.175, good for a .389 OPS. That’s the kind of offensive performance teams get when they send their pitchers up to hit. Crisp had managed just two extra base hits — both doubles — in 124 plate appearances. At 32-years-old, he looked washed up.

On June 7th, Crisp went 2 for 3 with a triple and a home run and never looked back. From that day on, he hit .293/.361/.499, with 41 of his 100 hits going for extra bases. In the first two months of 2013, he’s hitting .297/.384/.505, with 40% of his hits going for extra bases. Since June 7th of 2012, Crisp has racked up 609 plate appearances, which is about equal to one full season’s worth of playing time. During that stretch, Crisp has 64 extra base hits, which is not exactly what you expect from an aging leadoff hitter whose career specialties have been speed and defense.

So, what’s the deal? How did Crisp not only turn his season around last summer, but become a legitimate power hitter in the process? In a word, patience.

A’s hitting coach Chili Davis has been a big advocate of the A’s longstanding philosophy of working counts, getting into fastball situations, and then swinging hard. As he told the San Francisco Chronicle earlier this week:

“”Guys are more patient at the plate, they’re seeing a lot of pitches. They’re making pitchers work, too.”

Crisp is a perfect example of a more patient hitter and how that approach can lead to better hitter’s counts and better results. From 2007-2011, PITCHF/x data shows that Crisp swung at 43.3% of the pitches he was thrown, and while he wasn’t Pablo Sandoval at the plate, he chased his fair share of pitches out of the zone, posting an out-of-zone swing rate of 24.4%. Over the last year, Crisp’s swing rate is down to 40.9% and his out-of-zone swing rate is down to 21.8%.

These aren’t huge drastic shifts, but they’re increasing as Crisp gets more comfortable with the more selective approach. In 2013 only, Crisp’s at 38.7% of the pitches he’s thrown, and his out-of-zone swing rate is down to 18.7%, which is the fourth lowest rate of chasing balls of any hitter in baseball. Crisp has transformed from not-a-hack into a guy who swings almost exclusively at strikes, and that has led more swings in favorable counts.

Here are the rates at which Crisp’s at-bats have ended in either pitcher’s counts, hitter’s counts, or even counts, for both his career and for 2013.

Career:

Batter Ahead: 35%
Pitcher Ahead: 29%
Even Count: 35%

2013:

Batter Ahead: 42%
Pitcher Ahead: 29%
Even Count: 29%

Crisp has basically moved 7% of his plate appearances from even counts to hitter’s counts, which might not like sound that important, but here are Crisp’s relative performances by count this season:

Even Count: .250/.246/.375
Batter Ahead: .375/.564/.719

Five of Crisp’s eight home runs have come in hitter’s counts, and while you might think that this is the norm, Crisp is killing the ball in hitter’s counts at a rate that far outpaces the average AL hitter. According to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index, of the 168 players with at least 200 plate appearances this year, Crisp ranks 19th in OPS when ahead in the count and 23rd in slugging percentage. When he gets into counts where he can look for a fastball and swing for the fences, he has a higher slugging percentage than guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and David Ortiz.

And for all the talk about how a patient approach leads to more strikeouts and lower overall offensive levels, Crisp is showing the exact opposite to be true. For his career, 44% of his at-bats have reached ended on two strike counts, but by swinging less this year, he’s up to 53% two strike counts, and yet at the same time he’s posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Strikeouts aren’t just a function of getting to two strikes, but also swinging at the wrong pitches in two strike counts. Crisp has been willing to get to two strike counts this year because he knows he has the contact skills to still put the ball in play, and the increase in selectivity has gotten him into more favorable counts overall.

So, while some corners of the world rail against the A’s for encouraging hitters to not swing, Crisp is a living example of just how this offensive philosophy can work. Instead of becoming a slower, less effective lead-off hitter, Crisp’s turned himself into a guy who gets into good hitter’s counts and swings for the fences. As a result, he’s having the best offensive season of his career, and he’s one of the main reasons why the A’s are in first place in the American League West.