Every year, it seems, the New York Yankees put together a monster offense. They get on base (#1 in MLB in OBP since 2008) and they hit for power (#1 in both SLG and HRs), so it’s no big surprise that they’ve scored a league best 4,234 runs over the last five years. Their 1,092 home runs during that span put them more than 100 dingers ahead of the Rangers, who have the second highest total among MLB clubs in the last five seasons. The Yankees more than have lived up to their Bronx Bombers nickname.

However, an interesting thing happens when you look at each team’s offensive performance during those last five years and exclude the at-bats that have been given to pitchers, leveling the playing field between AL and NL clubs to a large degree. When you just look at the results each team has gotten from their hitters, the St. Louis Cardinals emerge as the Yankees of the National League.

The totals that include their pitchers at-bats – a .270/.338/.419 slash line, a .331 wOBA, and 805 home runs — don’t stack up against New York’s numbers, but eliminating those at-bats from players who are not paid to hit makes a big difference. Just focusing on the results from their position players, the Cardinals team average jumps to .278 (#1 in MLB), their OBP jumps to .348 (#1 in MLB, edging out New York’s .347), and their slugging percentage jumps to .433 (#7 in MLB).

That slugging percentage doesn’t keep pace with the Yankees .449 mark, but then again, the Cardinals don’t play half their games in a park that was designed with home run derbies in mind. In fact, Busch Stadium annually grades out as one of the stingiest parks in all of baseball for home runs, depressing homers by about nine percent since it opened. Yankee Stadium and it’s short RF porch inflates home runs by 11 percent, for comparison.

Once you adjust for these park factors, the Cardinals hitters have actually performed almost identically to the Yankees hitters during this last five year stretch. The Yankees hitter’s 113 wRC+ — which adjusts overall offensive numbers relative to a team’s home park and the average offensive levels of the leagues each team plays in — is still #1 in baseball, but just barely ahead of St. Louis’ 112, and both teams stand well ahead of the rest of the pack during that stretch.

If we repet this measurement after the 2013 season, it’s quite possible that St. Louis will stand as the best overall offense of the last five years, because while the Yankees line-up looks like it’s going to take a step back due to aging and injuries, the Cardinals offense just continues to get better and better. In fact, there’s a case to be made that St. Louis’ 2013 line-up is one of their deepest and most impressive in recent memory.

The anchors of the team that posted a 107 wRC+– excluding pitchers, that number jumps to 114, tied with NYY for #1 in baseball — last year return, and while Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran are getting older, there’s still some significant areas where the Cardinals offense could be even better than they were a year ago. For starters, Allan Craig played in just 119 games last year, so a full season from Craig could add an additional 100 or so plate appearances from one of the league’s best hitters, many of which were given to an ineffective Matt Adams last year.

However, the biggest potential upgrade could come at second base. Last year, St. Louis’ second baseman hit just .240/.309/.363, with only San Francisco and Colorado getting a lower OPS from the keystone position among NL clubs. Most of the Cardinals at-bats at second base last year went to Skip Schumker, Daniel Descalso, and Tyler Greene, and Greene and Schumaker won’t be back with the Cardinals for 2013. Descalso is still penciled in for some regular work at second base, but in an ideal situation, he’ll spend most of his time as a defensive replacement and part-time player in 2013, because the Cardinals are working with Matt Carpenter — primarily a third baseman in his career to date — on making the shift to second base in order to get his bat in the line-up.

Carpenter has played a grand total of 18 innings at second base in his career, but the Cardinals had some success converting Schumaker to the position a few years ago, and they believe that Carpenter has the physical skills to become adequate at the position as well. If he makes the transition, having a second baseman with a career 120 wRC+ would be a huge boon to St. Louis’ already potent offense. Carpenter might not field the position well enough to be an everyday player at the start of the season, but if he hits and doesn’t embarrass himself, it will be hard to keep him out of the line-up, and St. Louis’ other hitters are so good that second base is the only job he has a chance to win.

Having too many good hitters is a nice problem to have, and allows you to do things like experiment with a third baseman at second base, but even with moving Carpenter around, the Cardinals still don’t have room for all of their offensive talents. Oscar Taveras — just rated by Keith Law as the #2 prospect in baseball — is a prodigious hitting prospect that draws comparisons to the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, and yet, there is nowhere for him to play barring an injury. With Beltran and Holliday in the corners and Jon Jay locking down center field, the Cardinals don’t have room for a hitter who destroyed Double-A as a 20-year-old last year, and projects as an above average Major League hitter right now according to Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections.

The Cardinals have some pitching questions, and Rafael Furcal’s continuing elbow problems highlight their lack of depth at shortstop, but St. Louis has the deepest group of offensive talent in the Major Leagues right now, and the best hitting prospect in baseball sitting in their farm system waiting for an opportunity. They might not have a cool nickname based on their offensive prowess, but 2013 may very well signal the year where the sport begins to recognize that St. Louis is where the best offense in baseball resides.

The Houston Astros are coming to the American League West. The Houston Astros current Major League roster looks like one of the worst we’ve seen in recent memory, as the team is currently in the midst of a total organizational overhaul. The Astros are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, and their addition to the AL West means that the schedules for Texas, Anaheim, Oakland, and Seattle will be easier this year than they were last year.

Just how much will playing one of the league’s worst teams 19 times help the AL West contenders? Well, first off, we need to know where those games are going to come from.

Let’s use the Angels as an example of the scheduling adjustments that have been made to make 19 games against the Astros work. MLB wanted to preserve the same number of intra-division match-ups, so the Angels are still going to play the Rangers, Mariners, and A’s a combined 57 times, just as they did a year ago. To add 19 match-ups against Houston, the league had to trim a portion of the games against teams from other divisions. The count of where those cuts were made to create 19 additional games against their new divisional rival:

Team 2013 2012 Difference
Detroit 6 10 4
Tampa Bay 7 10 3
Minnesota 6 9 3
Cleveland 6 9 3
Baltimore 7 9 2
New York 7 9 2
Kansas City 7 9 2
Toronto 7 8 1
Chicago 7 8 1
Interleague 20 18 -2

The Angels will now play 21 fewer games against the AL Central and AL East, with the extra two games that were cut from those teams going to additional interleague match-ups. Here, you can see how it’s not just playing a poor Houston team that could be a potential boon to the Angels, but it’s dumping a decent chunk of their games against some of their toughest AL competition. Last year, the Angels played 29 games against Detroit, Tampa Bay and New York, going 10-19 in the process. This year, they will play just 20 games against those three teams.

But, of course, this isn’t just a single sided coin. In addition to getting fewer games against the Tigers, Yankees, and Rays, they also lose a series against Minnesota, who might challenge the Astros in the race for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft, and lose some games against the mid-to-lower-tier AL clubs as well. Clearly, though, the games being shifted to match-ups with the Astros are coming from a group of games that were against much stiffer competition previously.

To take this a step further, we can make an educated guess as to just how many additional wins we might expect the Angels (and the Rangers, Mariners, and A’s) to get from this new schedule compared to what they might have been expected to win under the old format. The Astros won 34% of their games last year, and that was with some decent performances from since-traded players such as Jed Lowrie, Wandy Rodriguez, and Wilton Lopez. Even with some improvement from a few young players and some carryovers, it’s hard to see the Astros being a significantly improved team in 2013. If we project a slight improvement — it’s really hard to lose 107 games, even when you’re rebuilding — we might generously call them a 60 win team in 2013, which means that they would be expected to win 37% of their games next year.

However, because we believe that the Angels are a better than average team, the Astros shouldn’t win 37% of their match-ups against Anaheim. By using a neat little mathematical tool developed by Bill James called log5, we can estimate the outcome of those 19 Angels-Astros match-ups, however. If we assume that the Angels have the talent level of a 90 win team — that is, they would win 55.5% of their games — then we’d expect the Angels to beat the Astros in 68% of their head to head match-ups, which translates to a 13-6 expected record in those games.

How would they have done under the old system? Well, if we look at the overall strength of the competition that they are playing fewer games against, we note that they are skewed towards above average teams, mainly thanks to the reduction in games against Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New York. Overall, the same methodology would have expected the Angels to go just 10-9 under the old schedule, so playing the Astros is a three win bump for Anaheim.

The math is essentially the same for each of the other three AL West incumbents, even teams with less imposing rosters like Seattle. While the Mariners might not win as many games against the Astros as the Angels, Rangers, and A’s, they’ll still get the benefit of losing fewer games against the AL East squads, and so the relative benefit comes out to three additional wins for them as well.

Three wins probably won’t be enough to push the Mariners into the playoff race, but it could very well be a decisive margin in determining the American League Wild Card teams. For Texas, Anaheim, and Oakland, the arrival of the Astros might give them enough of a cushion to sneak out a wild card berth, even if their rosters might not stack up against Toronto or Tampa Bay on paper. Thanks to the unbalanced schedule, it’s not always about being the best team, but simply being the team that takes the most advantage of inferior opponents.

When the Blue Jays pulled off their blockbuster trade with the Marlins, the focus immediately went to the two pitchers in the deal, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle. Toronto’s rotation was terrible in 2012, and their starters were one of the main reasons the team allowed 784 runs last season, more than all but five other MLB clubs. Johnson brings the ability to dominate when healthy, while Buehrle is the safest bet in MLB for 200 average or better innings. With one fell swoop, the Marlins rebuilt a battered rotation.

However, there’s a secondary storyline hiding under the Blue Jays off-season, and the foundation for their 2013 offensive identity was laid in that same transaction. With that move — and a few more additions later in the off-season — the Blue Jays have given themselves the opportunity to run more than any team has in recent years.

Everyone knows that Jose Reyes is one of the fastest players in baseball, and uses his speed to greatly enhance his overall value. In fact, over the last 10 years, Reyes has accumulated the sixth most runs from baserunning of any player in MLB, despite missing large chunks of time due to various injuries. However, on the Blue Jays roster of sprinters, Reyes might be the third most dangerous baserunning weapon.

In order to get a better idea of seasonal baserunning value, we can take the amount of runs a player has created on the bases and prorate it to 600 plate appearances, which is approximately one full season worth of playing time for a regular position player. Over the last 10 years, the most valuable runner per 600 plate appearances (with a 1,500 PA minimum to keep the sample size reasonably large) has been Brett Gardner, who checks in at +10.3 runs per season. Three spots behind Gardner is Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis, who has averaged +8.3 runs per season on the bases. Two spots behind Davis? Newly acquired utility infielder Emilio Bonifacio, who came from Miami with Reyes in the mega-deal.

That’s right – the 2013 Blue Jays are going to feature two of the six most effective baserunners in baseball over the last decade, and neither one is named Jose Reyes. Reyes, if you’re wondering, checks in at +5.8 runs per 600 plate appearances, coming in 16th overall during the last 10 years. It doesn’t stop with Reyes, either, as the Blue Jays also imported infielder Maicer Izturis (+3.9 runs per 600 PA, #40) over the winter, and are retaining center fielder Colby Rasmus (+3.2 runs per 600 PA, #60) as well. And, if Rasmus either struggles or gets injured, the team would likely call up 22-year-old speedster Anthony Gose, who put up a staggering +5.1 runs of baserunning value in just 189 plate appearances as a rookie last year.

Even assuming a reduced role for Davis with Melky Cabrera — an above average but unspectacular baserunner — taking over as the regular left fielder, we can still project him as a force on the bases. After all, even on days when Davis isn’t starting, he’ll likely be used as a late inning pinch-runner, and Davis is absolutely fearless as a base stealer. Last year, Davis was in position to steal a base 118 times, and he ran on 59 of those, or exactly half of his opportunities. No other player in baseball ran even close to that frequency. Only five other players attempted a steal in at least 1/3 of their opportunities last season, and two of them — Gose (35%) and Bonifacio (33%) are now Davis’ teammates.

Aggressive baserunning has largely gone out of vogue in baseball over the last 20 years, as the increased offensive environment that began in 1994 led to a change in the calculus of how often a player should run. When hits and especially home runs are plentiful, the value of advancing into scoring position is reduced — the runner is more likely to score from first base, after all — and the cost of making an out is higher, as it prevents more batters from coming to bat. With the reduction in offense throughout the sport, runs are now more scarce, and the tide has shifted back towards increasing aggressiveness on the bases.

During the offensive heyday at the turn of the century, the break-even rate for base stealing was around 70%, with runners succeeding less often than that not adding any real value to their teams through base stealing, no matter how many bases they stole. Last year, it was down to about 66%, as outs simply aren’t as harmful as they used to be, and the potential run gained by getting into scoring position is more critical to winning than it was when every game ended 10-9.

The Blue Jays appear to be extremely aware of the rising importance of baserunning, and have built a roster to take advantage of a more aggressive style of play than we’ve seen in some time. Over the last 10 years, no team has created more value on the bases than the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays, who checked in at +34 runs overall, led by Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria, and also featured quality running role players like Jason Bartlett and Sean Rodriguez. That team won 96 games and finished at the top of the American League East.

This Blue Jays team could very well challenge that Rays team for the best baserunning club we’ve seen, depending on how much playing time Davis, Bonifacio, and Gose end up getting this season. Even with Davis and Bonifacio serving as part-time players to begin the season and Gose likely ticketed for Triple-A, this is still easily the fastest team in baseball, and the Blue Jays speed is likely to be a factor in every game they play this season.

The Detroit Tigers are a very good baseball team, and they play in the American League Central, a division that Jayson Stark just graded out as baseball’s worst. While the Royals are attempting to make a run this season, the Tigers have fewer real challengers than any other playoff contender in the sport. And perhaps that cushion is why the Tigers are apparently willing to go into the 2012 season without anything resembling a Major League closer.

The frontrunner for the job is 22-year-old rookie Bruce Rondon. Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski made it clear earlier this week that the job was not going to be handed to Rondon, but was quoted as saying they “hope he wins the job in spring training”, following that up with “in my opinion, he’ll handle it fine.” That’s quite the vote of confidence for a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues.

In some ways, this experiment is a very new-school approach to the closer’s role. The statistical community has long advocated for lower cost bullpen construction, eschewing the notion of a “proven closer” and simply giving the ninth inning job to a quality reliever without the reputation to demand a big salary. For years, Billy Beane has used pump-and-dump closers as a way to create valuable trade chips and then ship them off for more valuable prospects, dating back to the days of Billy Taylor in the mid-1990s. While Dombrowski is not generally seen as an analytical GM, the idea of creating a closer rather than paying for one is a page right out of the Moneyball playbook.

However, the notion that statistical analysts believe that “anyone can close” is a bit of a myth. This is often the paraphrased argument for the idea of a ninth inning mentality, citing the analytical crowd’s lack of emphasis on things like personality and mindset. While we may not buy into the value of paying market prices for proven closers, it is very clear that not just anyone can successfully hold down a lead in the ninth inning role.

And no, this is not a concession that some pitchers simply aren’t mentally prepared for the pressure of being in the game for the final three outs. It’s the Major Leagues – every pitcher at this level was the local ace for most of their lives, and all of them have pitched critical innings in front of tens of thousands of people. The ones who really didn’t have the personality to handle pressure got weeded out a long time ago. Instead, the real separator for successful ninth inning relief work is a very tangible and measurable skill – the ability to get opposite handed hitters out.

This is the primary difference between a closer and his bullpen mates. A manager has the ability to mix and match setup men based on the handedness of the opposing hitters, and can pick his spots to maximize the amount of right-on-right or left-on-left match-ups in the middle innings. The closer, however, is at the mercy of the draw, and is tasked with facing whichever three batters are due up to begin the ninth inning, no matter what side of the plate they bat from.

This inflexibility means that closers simply face a much larger proportion of opposite handed batters than middle relievers do. Last year, Jose Valverde was the Tigers closer, and due to his ninth inning responsibilities, he only had the platoon advantage against 43% of the batters he faced. Meanwhile, Octavio Dotel (62%), Bryan Villareal (61%), and Phil Coke (53%) all got to face more same-handed hitters than opposite-handed hitters, which is the right role for each since they all struggle mightily against opposite handed hitters.

Unfortunately for Valverde, that kind of same-handed specialist role is the one he’s also best suited for, as he held right-handers to a .191/.270/.246 line last year, while lefties hit .250/.337/.417. Valverde’s 12.6% K% against left-handed batters last season is one of the primary reasons why the Tigers are replacing him as closer to begin with; he simply didn’t have the weapons necessary to get a string of left-handed hitters out on a consistent basis.

Unfortunately for Rondon, his minor league track record suggests that he might not be ready for the ninth inning job either. Over the past two minor league seasons, left-handed batters have posted a .406 on base percentage against Rondon, in large part thanks to a staggeringly high 21.3% BB%. Rondon has dominated right-handed batters, holding them to a dismal .120/.235/.131, but his inability to consistently throw strikes to left-handers should be a big red flag for the Tigers. In many ways, Rondon’s profile is similar to that of both Valverde’s and Villareal’s, and both have rightfully been deemed as unworthy of the closer’s role on a team hoping to contend for the World Series.

The best pitcher in the Tigers bullpen at retiring opposite handed hitters is Joaquin Benoit, but Jim Leyland has noted that he has problems working back-to-back days, so they don’t see him as a legitimate option for the full-time closer’s position. Meanwhile, Phil Coke has bigger problems with right-handed hitters than Valverde did with lefties, and he’s best used in a situational role where he can face as many left-handers as possible.

While the Tigers can hope for Rondon to overcome his problems against left-handers — and it’s certainly possible, given that he’s still just a kid — they don’t appear to have any solid internal candidates to fill the ninth inning role for the upcoming season. I’m not one who believes strongly in proven closers, but I do believe that it takes a minimum amount of skill to pitch in the ninth inning, and that skill is the ability to get opposite handed hitters out. Perhaps Rondon will eventually develop that skill, but he hasn’t yet shown it at in the minor leagues. Phil Coke does not possess that skill. While developing your own closer rather than paying free agent prices for one is a good idea, it’s also helpful to have legitimate closing options to pick from. Right now, Detroit’s bullpen looks like a bunch of guys better suited to the setup role.

While Delmon Young has yet to live up to his prospect hype, he is still just 27-years-old. Theoretically, he should be headed into the prime of his career, and baseball has seen a number of other players struggle early in their careers, only to develop into productive players at a later age. Raul Ibanez didn’t have his first productive season until age 29. Ben Zobrist turned into an effective player at age 27, seemingly out of nowhere. Garrett Jones came on the scene at 28, the same age that Nelson Cruz finally started hitting big league pitching. In each case, previously unproductive players turned into far more than they looked like earlier in their careers, and they should stand as a reason for optimism regarding Young’s future.

However, in each of those cases, those players hadn’t really failed at the Major League level in any kind of extended trial. They were minor league lifers, tagged with the 4A label, and they spent their early twenties just trying to earn a shot at the Majors. Rather than comparing Young to guys who simply didn’t get a chance to show what they could do earlier in their careers, I wanted to see if I could find some examples of late bloomers who had already accumulated significant Major League careers, and after struggling at the highest level, eventually turned into good players as they got into their peak seasons.

So, I started off by looking for players with similar track records to Delmon Young. Through his 2012 season, when he was 26-years-old, Young had racked up 3,575 plate appearances and totaled just 0.8 WAR. So, I set the playing time limit to 3,500 plate appearances capped career WAR through age 26 at less than 6. These filters would give us players who had racked up approximately six years worth of playing time, and had averaged fewer than 1 WAR per season during that time.

The problem? It’s a really small list. In the last 100 years, there have been four players have managed to get that much playing time early in their career without being particularly effective. Those four, in order of least production:

Delmon Young: 3,575 PA, 0.8 WAR
Charlie Grimm: 3,847 PA, 4.9 WAR
Cristian Guzman: 3,538 PA, 5.3 WAR
Ed Kranepool: 3,684 PA, 5.4 WAR

Grimm, Guzman, and Kranepool weren’t very effective players in their early twenties, but they were all better than Young by a pretty decent margin. No player in the last 100 years has played as much at as ineffective of a level as Delmon Young through this same point in his career. However, the three other guys on the list do offer some hope for Young’s future.

Through age 26, Grimm was a first baseman without much power, as he hit .285/.331/.392, good for just a 90 wRC+. He’d shown flashes of potential, including an excellent season at age 24, but hadn’t sustained that early promise. His age 27 season didn’t include any kind of miraculous breakout (100 wRC+, 0.7 WAR), but it began a steady ascent towards being a relatively decent player. From age 27 to 37, Grimm hit .294/.349/.401, good for a 98 wRC+, and he racked up 14.6 WAR in 4,898 pate appearances. On a per season basis, that puts him around 1.8 WAR per full year, which is roughly the performance of a league average player.

Kranepool had a similar improvement, going from a 90 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances through age 26 to a 102 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances from age 27 to 34. He didn’t have the same staying power as Grimm, but he put together a nice three year run from 1974 to 1976 as a well above average hitter, despite showing little of that offensive potential early in his career.

Guzman is the least simmilar player to Young, as he got to the Majors early based on his speed-and-defense profile at a young age, but even he performed better from 27 to 32 than he had earlier in his career. Through age 26, Guzman had a 74 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances, but from 27 on, he put up an 83 wRC+ and averaged 1.3 WAR per 600 trips to the plate. It’s not a huge gain, but Guzman did have one big season at age 30, putting his skills together to give the Nationals a real boost in 2008.

In each case, previously unproductive players turned into useful role players later in their careers, even after struggling for years in the big leagues with a promotion they probably weren’t ready for. However, we can’t ignore the fact that each player was significantly better than Young during their formative years, and so they were starting from a higher baseline than he is. And, of course, none of the three even turned into above average players, and it’s probably safe to write off the idea of Young becoming any kind of star.

But, for all the ridicule the Phillies got for bringing Young on board, there is some precedent of bad young players becoming useful middle aged players. It might not be quite as rosy of an outlook as comparing him to guys like Ibanez, Cruz, or Jones, but Young isn’t worthy completely giving up on yet. There’s still a chance he has a few decent seasons in him yet.

When Opening Day day rolls around in a few months, Major League teams will have to declare an active 25 man roster. That roster will, in most cases, be divided into 13 position players and 12 pitchers, with five of those pitchers designated as starters, and the rest serving as relievers out of the bullpen. However, while teams will begin the season with five starters, any team with a strong hope of contending in 2013 should have a sixth starter waiting in the wings.

Because of the frequency of pitcher injuries, it is exceedingly rare for a team to make it through the whole season without leaning on a starter who didn’t begin the year in their rotation. Last year, 186 different pitchers threw at least 50 innings as a starter, which works out to an average of just over six per team. While the sixth starter often begins the season either in Triple-A or in long relief, they’ll usually end up throwing nearly half a season’s worth of innings overall, their performance can make a significant difference on a team’s final record.

For instance, A.J. Griffin didn’t join the A’s until June 24th, when he was called up from Sacramento to replace the injured Brandon McCarthy. He proceeded to post a 3.06 ERA in 15 starts over the remainder of the season, and the A’s went 12-3 when he took the hill. The A’s beat out the Rangers for the AL West title by one game. While no single player can be responsible for a division title, it is pretty clear that the A’s wouldn’t have managed to finish ahead of Texas had Griffin not put together a remarkable second half of the season. Kris Medlen, Michael Fiers, Alex Cobb, and Hisashi Iwakuma also made significant contributions to their teams after joining the rotation in mid-season.

So, which teams are prepared for the inevitable need for a sixth starter heading into 2013? Here are three pitchers who give their teams necessary depth, and could end up being big parts of a winning club even if they don’t have a job coming out of spring training.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit

Trade rumors have been swirling around Porcello ever since the Tigers re-signed Anibal Sanchez, as Porcello is seemingly without a starting spot headed into the year. He’s certainly better than many other pitchers penciled into rotations on other teams, so a trade would make some sense. However, the Tigers might want to consider just keeping Porcello for themselves.

Doug Fister had two different stints on the disabled list last year resulting from a costochrondal strain, and has only made 30 starts in a season once in three full big league seasons. Drew Smyley only threw 117 innings last year between Triple-A and the Majors, and is still at the point of his career where Detroit isn’t going to want to push him too quickly. Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer both have their own injury histories as well. Behind Justin Verlander, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Tigers will need to fill gaps from time to time, and the drop-off to the next best starter if Porcello is trade would be extreme.

Casey Crosby would probably be first in line to replace Porcello, and he was nothing short of a disaster in three mid-season appearances last year, giving up 13 runs in 12 1/3 innings. His command simply isn’t yet Major League caliber, and having Crosby run up 100 pitches in four innings every fifth day would put a large strain on an already thin bullpen. While Porcello might hold more value for another team that could use him as a full season starter, the Tigers should be interested in minimizing the risk of losing the division by having to turn to inadequate replacements if injuries start to mount. Given the difference between a quality pitcher like Porcello and the alternatives if they traded him away, the Tigers best bet may be to just use Porcello in relief until the need arises.

Chris Capuano, LHP, Los Angeles

It has to be a little weird for Capuano to come to camp without a guaranteed rotation spot, given that he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and stayed healthy for the entire 2012 season. Yet, after the Dodgers splurged on Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu after picking up Josh Beckett last August, there might not be room for him in the opening day rotation, especially if Chad Billingsley proves to be healthy during spring training.

But, despite the fact that Capuano might not be promised a rotation spot on opening day, the Dodgers shouldn’t be in any hurry to reduce their rotation depth. Money is clearly not a problem for the organization, so they don’t need to ship him out to save the $6 million he’s due in 2013, and while they have a large quantity of starters behind Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, they don’t necessarily have a ton of quality. Beckett wasn’t particularly good for either the Red Sox or Dodgers last year, which is why Boston gave him to Los Angeles in the first place. Aaron Harang’s 3.61 ERA from last year looks like a total mirage when compared to his 4.14 FIP and 4.95 xFIP. Ryu is a total wild card. Even if all three are completely healthy, odds are pretty good that one of them just doesn’t pitch very well in 2013.

From a performance perspective, it’s not entirely crazy to think that Capuano could be the Dodgers third or fourth best pitcher next year, even if he begins the year in the bullpen. Having him around not only gives them depth in case of an injury, but could very well allow them to upgrade on a weak rotation spot in season.

Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay

The Rays have been notorious about hoarding their pitching depth, and even after trading James Shields to Kansas City, they still have too many good arms to fit everyone into their opening day rotation. Right now, the hard-throwing right-hander is on the outside looking in, but Archer showed glimpses of dominance in his debut last year, and provides the Rays with another tantalizing option for the summer if one of their young arms goes down.

Don’t pay too much attention to his 4.60 ERA; it’s the 29.5% strikeout rate from his 29 big league innings that should be the real eye opener. For reference, Max Scherzer led all qualified MLB starters in K% during 2012, with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Archer shouldn’t be expected to keep that performance up over a full season worth of starts, but his dominant stuff should allow him to be an excellent fill-in whenever Tampa Bay needs to give one of their young arms a break.

The Rays have always put a lot of value in having more than five good starters, and they’re still rich in young pitching even after trading James Shields. Not having to lean on a mediocre Triple-A veteran or overpay for a rent-a-pitcher at the deadline has been one of the keys to the team’s sustained success, and they appear set to continue to take advantage of that strength.

Keith Law’s list of the best players in Major League Baseball under the age of 25 is exceptional for several reasons, but perhaps the most notable is that the cream of the crop aren’t even anywhere close to the age limit. In fact, when you look at what Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jason Heyward did in 2012 — with Stanton and Heyward being the veterans at age 22 — it becomes clear that we just saw a season for the history books.

Much has been written about Trout and Harper, who both had all-time great seasons for their age bracket, but baseball has seen two phenomenal rookie hitters come up together before. Baseball has not, however, seen four players this young who were this good in the same season in nearly 50 years. Trout, Harper, Stanton, and Heyward combined for a truly remarkable 27.3 WAR in 2012 – for reference, here are the best combined WAR totals for four position players, all 22 or younger, in baseball history:

1964: Dick Allen, Jim Fregosi, Boog Powell, and Bill Freehan: 29.8 WAR
2012: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Hewyard: 27.3 WAR
1972: Cesar Cedeno, Chris Speier, Ted Simmons, Greg Luzinski: 25.0 WAR
1939: Ted Williams, Buddy Lewis, Ken Keltner, Charlie Keller: 25.0 WAR
1970: Johnny Bench, Bernie Carbo, Aurelio Rodriguez, Richie Hebner: 24.8 WAR
1956: Hank Aaron, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Bill White: 24.2 WAR

Only the 1964 group bested last year’s quartet, and it’s worth noting that all four players in that season were the maximum age of 22. Given that Trout and Harper weren’t even of legal drinking age at the time, you might even give a slight edge to the modern day group, even though Allen and company posted a slightly higher WAR. And, of course, there’s some pretty illustrious company looking up at last year’s phenoms, including several inner circle Hall of Famers. Any time you end up on the same list as Ted Williams, Johnny Bench, and Hank Aaron, you’re doing alright for yourself.

Of course, there are some less famous names on the list that serve as a reminder that some players just peak early, for various reasons. Carbo, for instance, had one of the great rookie seasons in baseball history in 1970, hitting .310/.454/.551 as a 22-year-old. The next year, he hit .219/.338/.339, and he started 1972 so poorly that he was traded to the Cardinals. He never came close to repeating his early success, and was out of baseball by 1980.

But, for the most part, being great in the big leagues an early age is a sign of rare talent. Even the guys who didn’t end up enshrined in Cooperstown generally had pretty terrific careers, and were among the best players of their time. There aren’t too many guys who fluke their way into terrific seasons when most players their age are still riding the buses in the minor leagues.

Trout, Harper, Stanton, and Heyward are all special talents. In most other years, they’d be easy picks for the best under-25 player in the sport. Right now, though, the sport is experiencing a renaissance of absurdly good players at a young age. When you’re looking through the list, keep in mind that this is not an ordinary class of players. We don’t usually have this kind of greatness on display at an early age. Enjoy it, because you probably won’t ever see four outfielders this good come up together again.

When the Angels became The Mystery Team and signed Josh Hamilton last month, the idea of their new batting order became the thing of legends. Hamilton could slide in behind Albert Pujols, who was already hitting behind Mike Trout, and even guys like Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar, are better than average hitters for their positions. The Angels line-up is going to be very good, and people have even begun to whisper about the team potentially scoring 1,000 runs, a feat which hasn’t been accomplished since the Indians did it back in 1999. But here’s the dirty little secret about the Angels offense; the 2013 version may very well be worse than the 2012 version.

How does a team add Josh Hamilton and get worse offensively? Well, it’s not as far fetched as it might sound on the surface. There are essentially three big factors that could cause the Angels to score fewer runs than they did last year.

1. Hamilton is not actually going to be a big upgrade over what Torii Hunter did in 2012.

If you just focus on home runs — Hamilton hit 43, Hunter hit 16 — this might seem ridiculous. But there’s more to life than home runs, and what Hunter lacked in power, he made up for in singles. Despite having 52 fewer plate appearances, Hunter out-singled Hamilton 126 to 84, and while singles might not be as flashy as home runs, they are useful run scoring tools in their own right. Because of all those base hits, Hunter posted a higher on base percentage than Hamilton — .365 to .354 — and he did it while playing half his games in Anaheim, not Texas.

This is one of the scenarios where park factors actually are a really big deal. During his time with the Rangers, Hamilton had a .406 wOBA at home and just a .365 wOBA on the road. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the very best places in all of baseball to hit, especially in the summer when the temperature and the humidity rise. While we can’t just expect Hamilton to turn into what he has been on the road now that he’s leaving the friendly confines of Texas, his overall offensive numbers will come down. That’s why we look at park adjusted numbers like wRC+, which account for different offensive environments and put everyone on a level playing field.

Last year, Hunter posted a 130 wRC+, meaning that he hit 30% better than a league average hitter would be expected to while playing half his games in Anaheim. Josh Hamilton’s career wRC+? 135. Last year, he posted a 140 wRC+, but he’s also getting older, and age related decline could easily push Hamilton’s overall performance down to a similar level to what Hunter produced for the Angels last year.

2. The 2012 Angels were remarkably healthy and a little lucky.

The Angels didn’t have to deal with too many injuries last year, and the ones that did arise generally came on the mound. Among the regular position players, only Chris Iannetta and Erick Aybar hit the DL in 2012, and Aybar was only disabled from July 22nd to August 8th. Torii Hunter spent two weeks away from the team dealing with a personal issue, but even counting that, the rest of the hitters stayed active the entire season. The Angels had eight players garner at least 500 plate appearances last year, and that’s something that simply isn’t likely to be repeated again in 2013.

They also had some good fortune when it comes to how often their balls in play went for base hits. They led the AL with a .311 team BABIP, nearly 20 points higher than the league average last year. Some of that is due to having a line-up of speedy players, but even adjusting for the team’s speed, the Angels can’t count on getting the same amount of hits in 2012 as they did in 2013. The main regression candidate — now that Hunter has been replaced, at least — is Mike Trout, who posted a .383 BABIP last season. Even with Trout’s speed, that’s a number that simply can’t be sustained.

Over the last three years, 46 AL hitters have received 1,500 or more plate appearances; 45 of them have posted a BABIP below .350, with Austin Jackson (.370) as the lone exception. Even if you look at elite speed guys, you see that they can’t sustain BABIPs much over .350 for any length of time. Ichiro, for his career, has a .347 BABIP. Michael Bourn is at .343. Carl Crawford is at .328. Trout’s BABIP is going to come down. The only question is how far.

3. They’re also replacing Kendrys Morales with Peter Bourjos.

I like Peter Bourjos more than most, and I think he’s a much better hitter than he showed in limited duty in 2012. But, no matter how bullish you might be on his overall value, there’s no question that replacing Morales’ bat with Bourjos’ is a massive downgrade. Morales posted a 118 wRC+ last year, while Bourjos’ career mark is just 95, making him a slightly below average hitter during his time in the big leagues. Given his high strikeout rate and low power output, being an average hitter is probably his ceiling, as the Angels are essentially hoping he can turn into the west coast version of Michael Bourn, making up for the decent bat with elite defense in the outfield.

Swapping out Morales for Bourjos is probably a bigger offensive downgrade than swapping Hunter for Hamilton is an upgrade. While most of the focus is understandably on the addition of Hamilton, we must remember that the Angels made room for Hamilton by jettisoning Morales. When projecting their offense in 2013, we can’t simply pretend that they’re going to have all their good hitters back and simply added another great hitter to the mix. That’s not a reflection of what has actually happened this winter.

When you add up all the expected gains — likely some improvement from Albert Pujols, perhaps better health from Chris Iannetta, the addition of Josh Hamilton — there are enough positives to expect the Angels to still a have a very good offense in 2013, even with the issues listed above. But they had a very good offense last year — their team wRC+ of 112 was second best in baseball — and improving significantly on that performance is going to be a tall order. Adding Hamilton should allow them to remain one of the best offensive clubs in baseball, but don’t get too carried away with what putting him in right field will do to their offense. If the Angels match their offensive performance from 2012, they’ll be doing well. Expecting them to take a huge step forward is probably unrealistic.

The Rangers haven’t had a great off-season so far. After attempting (and failing) to land both Zack Greinke and Justin Upton, the team also saw Josh Hamilton defect to the division rival Angels, while Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, and Koji Uehara all went to Boston. The only free agent they’ve signed is Joakim Soria, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and might not be ready for the start of the 2013 season. The Rangers are going to have quite a different look next year.

Even the players who are sticking around are likely to experience some changes, as super prospect Jurickson Profar is expected to take a bigger role in 2013, potentially even moving into an everyday job. While Elvis Andrus is blocking his path at shortstop, Profar could play a decent amount of second base, which might force the Rangers to relocate incumbent starter Ian Kinsler to another spot on the diamond.

The question facing the Rangers is where that spot should be. Besides a two inning stint at third base — where the team is more than pleased with Adrian Beltre — Kinsler has spent his entire big league career at second base. With the departures of Hamilton and Napoli, the team has openings in the outfield and at DH, but they’ve also talked about moving Kinsler to first base, a position where they didn’t get a lot of production last year. You don’t see many second baseman shift over to first base, second baseman who are listed at 6’0, but Kinsler might actually be a better fit there than one would think just based on his height.

While first base is generally thought of as a power position, and second baseman aren’t generally known for their power, Kinsler actually hits more like a first baseman than a second baseman. For his career, he has an Isolated Slugging (Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, which gives you a measure of how much power a player hit for) of .188. For comparison, Adrian Gonzalez has an ISO of .195 over the last three years. Kinsler isn’t known as a prodigious home run guy, but like Gonzalez, he racks up a copious amount of doubles, which are pretty effective in driving in runs themselves.

For instance, compare Kinsler’s overall offensive performance to Adam LaRoche, who the Rangers have been linked to at various times this winter. Here are their numbers since 2010:

Kinsler: .263/.350/.441, 111 wRC+
LaRoche: .255/.327/.462, 109 wRC+

No one thinks of LaRoche as an underpowered hitter for the position, and Kinsler’s offensive track record is even stronger. Any team willing to give LaRoche a first base job should also be willing to consider Kinsler a first baseman, as there’s not a lot of evidence that LaRoche is a significantly better hitter overall.

And the Rangers wouldn’t be covering totally new ground here either. There is precedent for teams moving high contact, gap power middle infielders to first base and having it pay off in a significant way. The Brewers converted high contact, middling power second baseman Paul Molitor into a first baseman at age 34, and he went on to average +4 WAR per season for the next four years. Like Kinsler, Molitor was a guy who focused more on not striking out than hitting the ball over the wall, but he was still a highly productive 1B/DH, hitting better in his thirties than he did in his twenties, partially due to the improved health from not having to play a demanding position on the field.

Molitor, of course, is not the only low-strikeout, lots-of-doubles player who has succeeded as a high quality first baseman. John Olerud slugged .465 for his career, averaging 17 home runs per full season, and still produced +60 WAR during a brilliant career. Mark Grace slugged just .442 and never hit more than 17 home runs in a season, but he was still a consistently above average player until age 37. Don Mattingly, Will Clark, John Kruk, and Sean Casey… there’s a long list of guys who were very good first baseman despite not being a prototypical slugger.

The thing most of these guys had in common, of course, was excellent defense at first base. Mattingly won nine gold gloves in a ten year span. Grace won four. Olerud won three. Often times, the first baseman who don’t hit for power make up for the lack of home runs by saving runs in the field, as their more slender frames allow them to be far more agile at the position than the big lumbering sluggers who just try to not embarrass themselves between at-bats.

While Kinsler would have to adjust to learning a new position, he has the quickness and range to develop into that kind of quality defensive first baseman. While Kinsler was a bit of a defensive problem at second base coming up (-22 UZR in his first three seasons), his hard work has helped him become an above average defender at second base in recent years (+17 UZR in his last three seasons). And, of course, the pool of players which Kinsler would be measured against at first base is not as impressive as the group at second, so he’d likely grade out as an average or better defender at first base even while learning how to make the transition. With more experience, Kinsler could easily become one of the best defenders at the position in the sport.

Kinsler might not look like a first baseman, but he hits for more power than you might think, and there’s a strong history of smaller, skinnier players being highly valuable players at first base by making a lot of contact, hitting a bunch of doubles, and playing great defense at the position. Kinsler already had the contact and doubles skillset, and his quickness should allow him to develop into a good defensive player at first as well.

With Profar forcing his way onto the roster, the Rangers need a spot for Kinsler, and they have an opening at first base. The move prolonged Paul Molitor’s career, and helped give his offense a boost as well. Don’t be surprised if Kinsler ends up as a productive first baseman before too long, even if he’s not hitting 30 home runs every year.

James Shields is not your typical #1 starter. He was a 16th round draft pick by the Rays back in 2000, then never rated as a top prospect as he climbed through the farm system. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he doesn’t throw it that often, instead mostly relying on his cutter, curve, and change-up. The change-up is excellent, but the rest of his repertoire is somewhat unexciting. Until he started racking up 200 inning seasons in the big leagues, scouts were never that impressed with what Shields had to offer.

Through years of excellent performances, he has changed a lot of minds, and has proven that his package of skills can get big league hitters out on a regular basis. Today, we’ll look at three pitchers who have similar skills, and might be able to follow Shields’ lead by developing into an unexpected ace.

Jon Niese, New York Mets

Besides throwing with his left-hand, there are a lot of similarities between Niese and a young James Shields. His average fastball velocity sits at around 90 MPH, and to balance it out, he leans heavily on his cut fastball, while also working in his curve and change-up. And, like with Shields early in his career, the only thing keeping him from being a frontline starting pitcher is a problem with allowing home runs. From 2010 to 2012, 11.7% of Niese’s fly balls have left the yard; of the 24 NL starters who have thrown 500 or more innings over the last three years, only Bronson Arroyo has a higher HR/FB rate, and he pitches in a much more hitter friendly ballpark.

In K/BB ratio, Niese actually grades out ahead of guys like Anibal Sanchez and Johnny Cueto, but his propensity for giving up the long ball has kept his results from matching what they’ve put up. If he can get his home run rate down — and HR/FB rate is far less predictive than things like walk rate or strikeout rate – than Niese could be in for a breakout season sooner than later.

Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves

Unlike Shields, Minor has been on scouts radar for a while; he was the #7 overall pick in the 2009 draft, and Keith Law rated him as the #61 prospect in baseball before the 2011 season. However, Minor was highly thought of for his polish and proximity to the majors, not so much his upside as a frontline starter. After a miserable start to the 2012 season, however, Minor showed some flashes of developing into that kind of pitcher in the second half.

In the first three months of 2012, Minor issued 33 walks against 72 strikeouts, a mediocre total for an extreme fly ball pitcher who also gave up 18 home runs. The total led to a 6.19 ERA, and questions over whether Minor was capable of being anything more than a back-end starter. However, in the second half of the year, Minor started working in his slider a bit more often, and perhaps more importantly, he started working on the outer half of the strike zone with more frequency (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/28975/a-closer-look-at-mike-minors-improvement). The shift in results was dramatic – he allowed just eight home runs and posted a 73/18 K/BB ratio in the final three months of the season, and his ERA dropped to 2.21 over that stretch. His overall season numbers don’t look very good, but if Minor can continue to work the outer half of the plate and keep the ball in the yard, he’s got a chance to turn into a very good starting pitcher.

Tommy Milone, Oakland Athletics

Like Shields, Milone was a bit of an after thought as a prospect, not getting selected until the 10th round of the 2008 draft, then being overlooked even as he dominated hitters in the minor leagues. When he was included in the Gio Gonzalez trade last winter, he was considered something of a throw-in; the other three prospects in the deal were labeled as the real return for Oakland. Meanwhile, Milone quietly took his 88 MPH fastball to the Major Leagues and turned in an excellent rookie season, baffling hitters with an array of change-ups and racking up nearly four strikeouts for every walk he issued in 2012. He has the least impressive fastball of any pitcher on this list, but he also has the best change-up, which is the pitch that has helped Shields turn into a legitimate frontline starting pitcher.

Milone also has one other thing working in his favor – his home ballpark. A large part of Shields’ success came from pitching in a home run depressing park in Tampa Bay, as he allowed just 0.74 HR/9 at home compared to 1.28 HR/9 on the road. Milone was even more extreme in his home/road splits last year, giving up just 0.55 HR/9 in Oakland compared to an astonishing 1.77 HR/9 when he left the friendly confines. Those numbers will come closer together as the samples get larger, but playing in a big ballpark is going to be a significant benefit to Milone, and he may be able to ride the stadium’s park effects to better numbers than were ever imagined for a guy with his stuff.