It’s the great debate taking place in keeper leagues across the country: Who’s better, Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

The two high schoolers took drastically different paths to top prospect status. Harper appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16, got his GED and went first overall to the Nationals in 2010. Trout, by contrast, was a New Jersey prep product who lasted until the Angels popped him 25th overall in 2009 — no SI cover for him. Their games are also a study in contrasts, with Harper possessing mammoth power befitting of a future home run king and Trout profiling as a Tim Raines-like leadoff hitter.

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Red Sox acquire 1B Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres for RHP Casey Kelly, 1B Anthony Rizzo and OF Reymond Fuentes

Swinging in the most sinister offensive environment in the game, Gonzalez nonetheless batted .285/.387/.523 over the past three seasons, drawing a walk nearly 14% of the time with an ISO around .240. His three-year wOBA of .383 ranks 20th among qualified MLB hitters, but once you adjust for PETCO, Gonzalez’s bat has been eighth-best in the bigs over that time frame.

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As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches, general managers are busy working the phones for a deal that improves the current roster or lands intriguing, cost-controlled prospects who may play a prominent role in the years to come.

Baseball’s trade deadline history includes both the lopsided swap — such as the 1997 deal in which the Seattle Mariners sent Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox for Heathcliff Slocumb — and the win-win trades, like the 2008 CC Sabathia blockbuster that netted the Milwaukee Brewers an ace for a playoff run (plus two free agent compensation draft picks) and gave the Cleveland Indians two potential starting position players in Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta.

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Danny Tartabull’s deal in 1995 was ultimately lose-lose.
Not every transaction this time of year makes an impact, though — some trades provide both teams with a whole lot of nada.

Today, we’ll focus on five of the biggest lose-lose trades made in June and July over the past 25 years, as measured by wins above replacement. All WAR values given for major leaguers are rest-of-contract numbers — we’re interested in the value of the service time teams acquired in a trade, not what they subsequently paid to retain a player by bidding on his services on the free-agent market. For prospects and young major leaguers, the value is the WAR contributed during their inexpensive, team-controlled seasons before they hit free agency. By looking at the production teams received (or in this case, didn’t), we can get a feel for which deals gave general managers headaches and huge phone bills, but little on-field value. Despite winning five World Series in the past quarter-century, the Yankees still crack this list three times.

1. 2006: The Los Angeles Dodgers traded Joel Guzman and Sergio Pedroza to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Julio Lugo.
WAR received: minus-0.7
WAR forfeited: minus-0.2
Lugo averaged 3.5 wins per year from 2003-2005, and he was off to a great start with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2006 with a .383 wOBA and 2.5 WAR. But his bat didn’t make the cross-country trip to L.A., as Lugo posted a .240 wOBA while seeing time at second base, third base and the outfield corners. Guzman was ranked as the No. 26 prospect in the game by Baseball America prior to 2006, but he flamed out by moving down the defensive spectrum and displaying wretched plate discipline. While Pedroza hit well as an old player in the low minors, he tanked at Double-A.

2. 1995: The New York Yankees traded Danny Tartabull to the Oakland Athletics for Jason Beverlin and Ruben Sierra.
WAR received: minus-0.6
WAR forfeited: zero
“The Bull” inked a lucrative free-agent deal with the Bombers before the 1992 season, and the outfielder remained highly productive through ’93. But his bat no longer compensated for his lumbering defense after that (thanks for the swing tips, George Costanza). Plus, he had a very public spat with the late Yankees owner George Steinbrenner in 1995 after the team refused to put Tartabull on the DL with a rib injury. The Bull aggravated that rib ailment just a few games into his Oakland Athletics career, which would last all of 98 plate appearances. Sierra, meanwhile, turned in fantastic 1989 and 1991 seasons with the Texas Rangers, but his career flatlined in Oakland and he fared poorly in New York. The Yankees used him as part of a 1996 trade with the Detroit Tigers for Cecil Fielder.

What Will Happen?
Follow along with all the potential moves at MLB Rumor Central.

3. 1987: The Houston Astros traded Mel Stottlemyre Jr. to the Kansas City Royals for Buddy Biancalana.
WAR received: minus-0.6
WAR forfeited: plus-0.1
The son of Mel Sr. and brother of Todd Stottlemyre, Mel Jr. is the new pitching coach for the Arizona Diamondbacks. But before that, he was the third overall pick in the January phase of the 1985 draft. Mel Stottlemyre Jr.’s major league career would last all of 31.1 innings, logged in 1990. Roland Americo “Buddy” Biancalana, a middle infielder taken 25th overall in the 1978 June draft, has an awesome name. But alas, he barely stayed above the Mendoza Line as a big league reserve from 1982 to 1987.

4. 2008: The New York Yankees traded Kyle Farnsworth to the Detroit Tigers for Ivan Rodriguez.
WAR received: minus-0.1
WAR forfeited: minus-0.1
The Yankees figured they had killed two birds with one stone by getting rid of chronic underachiever Farnsworth and bringing in Pudge to fill in for Jorge Posada, who was out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, Rodriguez posted a .263 wOBA that made Jose Molina puff out his chest in pride. Farnsworth’s second stint with the Tigers didn’t go very well — he had a 5.07 FIP in 16 innings pitched. And he didn’t even body slam anybody this time. Bummer.

5. 2000: The Cincinnati Reds traded Denny Neagle and Mike Frank to the New York Yankees for Drew Henson, Jackson Melian, Brian Reith and Ed Yarnall.
WAR received: minus-1.4
WAR forfeited: plus-0.9
Before he got stacks-o-cash from the Colorado Rockies in free agency, Neagle compiled a 5.23 FIP for the Yankees. The Reds had to feel good about the return for trading the lefty — third baseman Henson ranked as Baseball America’s 24th-best prospect in the minors prior to 2000, and outfielder Melian ranked No. 72. Yet, Henson’s baseball career crumpled. The former star QB at Michigan was traded back to New York the following year for fellow enigma Wily Mo Pena, and Henson eventually quit the sport entirely to pursue a career in the NFL. That didn’t go so well either, and he’s currently retired. Neither Melian nor Yarnall ever reached the majors with Cincinnati, and the Reds probably wish Reith (minus-1.4 WAR) hadn’t either.

Visions of pennant-clinching trade acquisitions and blue chip prospects dance through the heads of fans and GMs alike as the deadline nears. Sometimes, however, reality bites.

Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels put on a pitching clinic Tuesday night. In eight innings, he struck out eight Cardinals batters and walked two, allowing just one run to cross home plate. His signature changeup was in fine form: According to Pitch F/X data from BrooksBaseball.net, Hamels threw 23 of his 28 changeups for a strike, and St. Louis hitters swung and missed at 11 of those off-speed offerings.

Expect more performances like this from Hamels in the days to come. Although the 26-year-old entered Tuesday’s action with a 5.06 ERA, he lowered that mark to 4.42 last night. And his peripheral stats suggest that he has been one of the best starters in the National League to this point.

In 38 2/3 innings, Hamels has whiffed 10.24 batters per nine innings, while allowing 2.79 walks per nine. Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Clayton Kershaw and Bud Norris are the only Senior Circuit pitchers with a higher K rate. Hamels is doing a great job of getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate, as opponents have swung at 31.6 percent of his pitches outside the strike zone. (The major league average this season is 27 percent.) That’s a career-best rate, and it places him in the top 10 among NL starters.

Despite the strong peripherals, Hamels’ numbers have been dragged down by abnormally high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and home runs per fly ball figures. Hamels has suffered from a .356 BABIP in 2010, compared with a career .298 BABIP. Also obscuring his excellent pitching is a 16.7 percent home run per fly ball rate, well north of his career 11.9 percent clip and the league average, which typically sits in the 10-12 percent range. Hamels was also a bit unlucky last season, as his strikeout, walk and home run rates were virtually identical to his 2008 marks. However, his BABIP went from .270 to .325, and his ERA jumped from 3.09 to 4.32.

With fewer bloop hits falling in and fly balls finding the stands less often, Hamels should see his ERA dip this season. He currently holds a 3.31 expected fielding-independent ERA (xFIP), which gauges a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks and a normal home run per fly ball rate. That places Hamels seventh among NL starters.

Roy Halladay may be the talk of the town, but Hamels gives the Phillies a second ace.

Chicago Cubs catcher Geovany Soto ramped up his workout routine during the winter, shedding serious pounds after a disappointing, injury-plagued sophomore season. During his Rookie of the Year Award-winning 2008 campaign, Soto batted .285/.364/.504 and ranked third in the majors among catchers with 4.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Last year, he hit just .218/.321/.381, falling to 1.2 WAR.

However, a huge chunk of that slide was due to his minuscule batting average on balls in play, and history suggests that we shouldn’t expect Soto to be nearly as unlucky in 2010.

In 2008, Soto had a .332 BABIP — league average is usually around .300. That figure plummeted to .246 in 2009, despite few changes in his offensive profile. Soto’s walk rate actually rose from 11 percent in 2008 to 12.9 percent in 2009, and he cut his strikeout rate from 4.5 percent to 23.3 percent. The 27 year-old swung at fewer junk pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (17.8 percent, compared to 20.1 percent in 2008) and took a cut at more hittable pitches within the zone (65.3 percent in 2009, up from 64.1 percent in 2008). Soto also made more contact, putting the bat on the ball 78.3 percent of the time he swung in 2009, compared to 74.7 percent in 2008.

Soto’s Isolated Power (slugging percentage minus batting average) did fall, from .219 to .163. But that’s still more pop than most backstops display. The average major league catcher posted a .141 Isolated Power in 2009.

For 2010, most projection systems figure that Soto’s BABIP will bounce back to a level near his career .305 mark. Chicago’s catcher possesses rare patience and power at a position where offensive production is often scarce. With more bloops and seeing-eyes singles evading gloves, Soto should post a much better batting line this season.

SS J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for OF Carlos Gomez

Hardy had a down year in 2009, hitting .229/.302/.357 and getting demoted to the minors at one point. But there’s hope for a rebound: his 2009 BABIP was about 40 points below his expected BABIP, which is based on his batted-ball profile. Hardy didn’t show as much pop as in years past with a .128 ISO (.166 career average). But there’s little reason to think the 27-year-old suddenly lost his power stroke. Minnesota’s new shortstop could be quite the bargain if he matches his 2007-2008 production.

Gomez possesses top-shelf speed, but he’s very much a work in progress. The 24-year-old outfielder showed modest improvement in his plate discipline in 2009, increasing his walk rate from 4.2 to 6.5%. However, he hasn’t been able to handle big league heat: Gomez has been -1.33 runs below average against fastballs during his short career. That has led to lots of weak contact, as Gomez popped the ball up nearly 20% of the time in 2009. He’s raw on the bases, too. After swiping 33 bags in 44 attempts in 2008 (75% success rate), Gomez stole just 14 bases in 21 attempts in 2009 (67%).

Hardy’s departure in Milwaukee opens the door for top shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar. The wiry Escobar is a burner, having swiped 42 bases in 52 tries at Triple-A. His bat has shown signs of life recently, though he’s a free swinger who doesn’t project to add much extra-base punch. Speaking of free swingers, Gomez’ departure from Minnesota gives former star prospect Delmon Young a little more rope, with Denard Span shifting to center field. Of course, Young might just hang himself that with that rope if his strike zone remains the size of Lake Superior.

RHP Javier Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan to the Yankees for OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Mike Dunn and RHP Arodys Vizcaino

The well-traveled Vazquez won’t replicate his 2009 production in the Bronx, as the fly-ball-oriented starter is headed from an NL park that depresses home runs to an AL venue that inflated tater-production in its inaugural season. That being said, Vazquez should still be high on your draft board. Over the past three seasons, the righty has the fourth-best K/BB ratio among starters (4.2), with a top-10 WHIP (1.15) and a top-20 FIP (3.74), as well. Vazquez is as durable as they come, too: he topped the 200-inning mark every season from 2000 to 2009, save for his 2004 campaign with the Yankees. As a bonus, he’ll be backed by the most potent offense in the game. Expect a high-3.00 ERA with a great WHIP.

Cabrera isn’t an exciting fantasy option, but the 25-year-old switch-hitter did manage a decent .274/.336/.416 line in 2009. He reversed a three-year decline in his walk rate, and posted the best ISO (.142) of his career. Melky’s no speed demon, but he did nab 10 bases in 12 tries. The question is: can he do more? Cabrera had a career .296/.349/.420 line in the minors, with a mild .124 ISO. He makes a lot of contact and isn’t punch-less, but he will have hit the ball with more authority to be relevant outside of NL-only leagues.

LHP Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners; RHP Roy Halladay, RHP Phillippe Aumont, RHP J.C. Ramirez and OF Tyson Gillies to the Phillies; RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d’Arnaud and OF Michael Taylor to the Blue Jays (Toronto later traded Taylor to the Athletics for 3B/1B Brett Wallace)

Over the past two years, Lee has established himself as a top-five starting pitcher. From 2008 to 2009, the lefty has the third-best FIP and K/BB ratio among starters, with the 10th-best WHIP. Now, Lee will be pitching in the best possible spot for a southpaw pitcher with fly-ball tendencies. Safeco Field has been brutal to right-handed power hitters, and has decreased home runs by 7% compared to a neutral ball park since 2007. Even better, Lee will be backed by perhaps the best defensive unit in the big leagues.

Halladay, meanwhile, is just about the safest bet among all pitchers. Roy’s K rate has increased four years straight, climbing from 5.4 K/9 in 2006 to 7.8 in 2009. The whiffs have cut into his ground-ball rate (from 61% in 2006 to 50% in 2009), but Halladay still burns plenty of worms. The 6’6’’ righty will be moving to a park that has inflated home runs by 14% over the past three years, so the grounder rate bears watching. But it’s easy to envision Halladay mowing down NL lineups and adding another Cy Young to his trophy case.

Wallace’s lumber is nearly big league ready – the lefty batter works the count well and has above-average-power potential. He’ll be more valuable if he can stick at third base, but they don’t call him “The Walrus” for nothing. Wallace will likely shift to first base at some point. Drabek, whose low-90s heat and power curve punched out 150 hitters in 158 innings between High-A and Double-A, could be a top-of-the-rotation arm. Aumont, a 6’7’’ righty with a sizzling fastball, looks like a closer-in-waiting if he improves his control and stays healthy. A hulking right-handed batter, Taylor has an intriguing combination of plus power (.229 ISO between Double-A and Triple-A) and deceptive athleticism (21 combined steals).

OF Curtis Granderson to the Yankees; RHP Max Scherzer, LHP Daniel Schlereth, LHP Mike Dunn and OF Austin Jackson to the Tigers; RHP Edwin Jackson and RHP Ian Kennedy to the Diamondbacks

Granderson’s .249/.327/.453 line in 2009 looks middling, but he’s a great bounceback candidate. His walk, strikeout and ISO figures were similar to 2008, when he hit .280/.365/.494. What changed? Granderson’s BABIP fell to .276, compared to his career .323 average. The lefty batter does scuffle against same-handed pitching (career .614 OPS vs. lefties), but he’s a good bet to go 30/20 again in 2010.

Scherzer’s first full year in the rotation was a rousing success, with a 9.2 K/9 rate and a 3.87 FIP. His blistering fastball, sharp slider and hard change-up led to a 77% contact rate, a top-15 mark among starters. About the only thing that can derail Scherzer is health; he has a troubling history of shoulder ailments.

Schlereth, a lefty reliever with a power fastball/breaking ball combo, could soon become Detroit’s closer. He’ll need to sharpen his control, though. Austin Jackson has a well-rounded skill set, though none of his tools stick out. He stole 24 bases in 28 tries in Triple-A last year. However, Jackson’s plate discipline has declined with each promotion, and his power is average.

Edwin Jackson made a good deal of progress in 2009, raising his K/BB ratio from 1.4 to 2.3 and lowering his FIP from 4.88 to 4.28. The former Dodgers prospect has a great slider (+1.89 runs per 100 pitches in 2009), but his fastball remains a batting practice pitch (-0.41 runs/100). Getting a better handle on his heater would allow Jackson to improve upon his poor 54% rate of first-pitch strikes. Jackson is good, but his 3.62 ERA might make him overvalued on draft day.

A former USC star with a career 2.69 FIP in the minors, Kennedy has yet to taste success in the Majors. His stuff (high-80s fastball, plus change-up, decent slider and curve) isn’t as good as his numbers would suggest, though the D-Backs still have high hopes for the 25-year-old. Kennedy’s 2009 season was derailed by surgery to remove an aneurysm in his right armpit. However, he did help his stock with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League.

RHP Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for RHP Brandon League and OF Johermyn Chavez

Morrow was handled terribly by Seattle’s previous regime. The fifth overall pick in the 2006 draft was shoved into the M’s bullpen in 2007, instead of being given time to develop his secondary pitches and build stamina as a starter in the minors. After two more years of bouncing between starting and relieving, Morrow is now 25 and pitches like a live-armed Low-A hurler. His talent is obvious, as the righty has punched out 9.3 hitters per nine innings in the Majors. Unfortunately, his control (5.8 BB/9) is abysmal. Morrow’s mid-90s fastball (+0.5 runs per 100 pitches thrown) and occasional mid-80s change-up (+0.2) have been effective, but his mid-80s slider (-0.5) often misses. He’s a project, but Morrow could provide value as either a starter or a closer.

League is fresh off his best season, having posted a 3.58 FIP out of the bullpen. The 27-year-old right-hander struck out 9.2 batters per nine frames, well above his career 6.9 average. He did so by trading some mid-90s sinkers for mid-80s change-ups. League’s change-up was worth +2.7 runs per 100 pitches, which helped him lower his contact rate from 82% to 71%. He still induced plenty of grounders, with a 56% ground-ball rate. There has been some rumbling that League could get some starts with his new team, but he has never started in the Majors and last took regular turns in a rotation at High-A in 2003.

Overall team outlook: The A’s broke in several high-upside starters and a shut-down closer in 2009, and a flood of position prospects are on the way. In the meantime, Oakland will give a few second-tier youngsters a chance to prove they’re deserving of inclusion in the club’s long-term plans.

The Starting Rotation: A pitcher can do three things to help himself: get strikeouts, limit walks, and keep the ball on the ground. Brett Anderson excels in all three aspects. Health permitting, Anderson has the skills to be a top-20 starter in 2010. Trevor Cahill didn’t have near the same smooth transition to the Majors as Anderson, as he struggled to fool batters, pitched away from lefties, and scrapped his breaking stuff. Keep in mind that he’s barely old enough to buy a beer and came into 2009 with little experience above A-ball. There’s a lot of potential here, but be wary for now. Dallas Braden’s season ended in August after a left foot rash led to nerve irritation. To avoid irritation yourself, take note that Braden had an ERA in the high 3.00s but had the peripherals of a pitcher with an ERA in the high 4.00s.

Justin Duchscherer missed the 2009 season while recovering from elbow surgery and a bout with depression. He won’t repeat his 2008 work, but The Duke’s useful if he still has plus control and a deceptive cutter/curve combo. Gio Gonzalez oscillates between enthralling and exasperating, possessing a big curve that leads to Ks and walks by the bushel. His FIP was much lower than his ERA last year. Vin Mazzaro has low-90s gas and a power slider, but doesn’t whiff as many batters as you would expect. As a sinker/slider righty with average command, Clay Mortensen has a limited ceiling.

The Bullpen: A former starter shifted to relief, Andrew Bailey used his mid-90s four-seamer, high-80s cutter, and high-70s curve to demolish batters during his rookie year. He did benefit from a very low BABIP and home-run rate, but Bailey has a rare combination of power and precision. The 6’3’’, 235-pounder belongs in the elite class of closers. A submarine pitcher whose fastball couldn’t tear through tissue paper, Brad Ziegler burns worms like few others but will never post huge K rates. Mike Wuertz, on the other hand, whiffed 11.7 batters per nine frames last year with his biting slider. His stuff is closer-worthy.

The Starting Lineup: Daric Barton finally showed signs of life last season. His plate discipline is immaculate, but Barton has limited pop at a position where power is a prerequisite. Mark Ellis was sidelined with a calf injury, after suffering a shoulder malady in 2008. Ellis has some doubles power, but he’s just an option in AL-only leagues. Cliff Pennington has a good eye and some speed, but he’ll have to prove he can avoid getting the bat knocked out of his hands. Kevin Kouzmanoff gets out of Petco, but the Coliseum constricts righty thump, too. Don’t expect a huge breakout in 2010.

Rajai Davis is highly unlikely to replicate his offensive performance from 2009, but he does have serious wheels and is a good bet to nab 30-40 bags if he has a full-time job. Coco Crisp’s shoulder went snap, crackle, pop last year, requiring season-ending surgery. He’s nothing special offensively, though he could offer 20 steals. It’s probably time to stop looking at Ryan Sweeney’s 6’4’’ frame and hoping he’ll turn into a power hitter. Jack Cust didn’t hit with the same authority last year, as his ISO fell nearly 70 points. Cust is still outfield-eligible, though A’s fans wish he wasn’t. Kurt Suzuki traded some patience for power last season, as he upped his ISO by 60 points but saw his walk rate dip three percentage points.

The Bench: Jake Fox can mash, but he’s ultra-aggressive and doesn’t have a defensive home. With Cust return, Fox’s playing time depends on how much the A’s can stomach his glove. Back, shoulder, and elbow injuries have sabotaged Eric Chavez’s once-promising career. Eric Patterson stole 43 bases at Triple-A last year. He’s buried on the depth chart, though. Travis Buck needs a healthy season to avoid falling into obscurity. Switch-hitter Landon Powell has better secondary skills than your average back-up catcher.

Overall team outlook: To assess Pittsburgh’s philosophy, look no further than last year’s opening day lineup: only Ryan Doumit and Andy LaRoche figure to return as starters. Rather than resigning the franchise to languid 70-win seasons, GM Neal Huntington took controversial, bold steps to give the roster an infusion of young, cost-controlled talent. After years of running in place, the team is now fully committed to player development.

The Starting Rotation: Paul Maholm’s ground-ball tendencies, plus control, and durability make him an asset to the Pirates, but his lack of punch-outs hinders his fantasy value. Ross Ohlendorf missed more bats during the second half of the season: 6.3 K/9 after the All-Star break, compared to 5.1 K/9 before the mid-point. Still, be skeptical of the sub-4.00 ERA. His BABIP was just .265. Ohlendorf’s fielding-independent stats suggest an ERA in the 4.50 range. Zach Duke is much like Maholm, with even fewer whiffs and a couple fewer walks. Despite the huge fluctuations in his ERA over the past three years (5.53 in 2007, 4.82 in 2008, 4.06 in 2009), Duke has been the same league-average innings-muncher. After aggravating scouts for years with incongruent scouting reports and results, Charlie Morton has a 3.1 K/BB ratio in Triple-A and was acquired from the Braves in last year’s Nate McLouth deal. The 6’4’’ righty gets grounders with a heavy low-90s heater and also has a quality curve, but his control is intermittent and a lagging change-up makes him vulnerable to lefty batters.

Former Cub Kevin Hart struck out nearly a batter per inning in the minors between the ‘pen and the rotation, but he has issued five free passes per nine innings in the Majors. He may be better suited for relief. Daniel McCutchen refuses to walk hitters and has a great track record, but his stuff is average and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Once a top prospect, Donnie Veal has serious control problems and spent last year in Rule 5 purgatory. He did have a promising Arizona Fall League season, though.

The Bullpen: With Matt Capps in Washington, Octavio Dotel takes over the ninth inning for Pittsburgh. Dotel has the second-highest K rate among relievers over the past two seasons, striking out 11.6 per nine frames. He has walked a batter every other inning over the time period, and Dotel gives up a ton of fly balls. His new home should help that latter problem, as it’s pretty difficult to go yard at PNC Park, particularly for righty hitters. Pumping mid-90s fastballs and mid-80s sliders, Joel Hanrahan has K’d 9.4 batters per nine innings in the big leagues. Unfortunately, he has also walked 5.2 per nine. Evan Meek misses bats and keeps the ball in the dirt, but with a career 6.2 BB/9, he makes Hanrahan look sharp by comparison.

The Starting Lineup: Andrew McCutchen is the sort of impact talent that Pittsburgh has lacked for years. The 2005 first-round pick has a polished approach at the plate; Olympic speed and quick wrists generate more power than you’d expect from his slender frame. He probably won’t post another ISO near .190, but McCutchen is the real deal. Akinori Iwamura won’t wow you offensively, but he rarely chases junk pitches and provides solid OBP figures. Garrett Jones packs a punch, but expecting anything near his 2009 performance would be misguided. A doubles and walks machine in the minors, Andy LaRoche was a league-average batter last season. The 26-year-old corner infielder is no star, but his big second half gives hope that there’s room for improvement.

Ryan Doumit’s season was curtailed by a wrist injury that sapped his bat control. Here’s the Catch-22 with the switch-hitter: his bat is a plus behind the plate, but catching exacerbates his lack of durability. The sheen is off Lastings Milledge; part of last year’s feeble hitting can be explained by a fractured finger, but his lack of strike-zone control is glaring. Speaking of fallen prospects, Jeff Clement may no longer don the tools of ignorance due to knee problems. That puts a big dent in his value, as his lumber would be potent for a backstop, but is ordinary at first base. Ronny Cedeno and Bobby Crosby will battle for the shortstop position, in a contest that would have been intriguing five years ago. Now, it’s just kinda sad.

The Bench: Delwyn Young’s trial run at second base reminded the Bucs why the Dodgers moved him off the keystone in the first place. The switch-hitter doesn’t have the bat for the outfield corners. Ryan Church hasn’t shown much pop lately, as post-concussion syndrome and back spasms have limited him. If healthy, he could work his way into Pittsburgh’s outfield plans. A Rule 5 pick from Florida, John Raynor hit a wall offensively at Triple-A. He’s a big stolen-base threat, however. Given substantial playing time last season, Brandon Moss scuffled and now appears buried on the outfield depth chart. Jason Jaramillo doesn’t have much in the way of secondary skills, but he’s an acceptable backup who could get 200+ at-bats, given Doumit’s injury history.

Overall team outlook: A club of contradictions, the Royals boasts one of the best starting pitchers on the planet, an emerging slugger at first base, a still-promising third baseman, and a farm system fertile in pitching. Yet, GM Dayton Moore has shown an alarming affinity for low-OBP hitters with fatal offensive flaws. You can see a better future, but you have to squint really hard and pretend that Jose Guillen and Yuniesky Betancourt aren’t there.

The Starting Rotation: In 2009, Zack Greinke graduated from stealth ace to widely praised A.L. Cy Young award winner. He won’t come cheap, but with three plus pitches and superb control, Greinke has staying power. Gil Meche enters 2010 as a huge question mark. He topped 200 frames in his first two years in Kansas City (the first two times he accomplished that feat), with a FIP in the high 3.00s. But he paid for it last year, suffering back and shoulder injuries. Tread cautiously. No, Luke Hochevar isn’t likely to become an ace. However, the first pick in the 2006 draft has pitched more like a mid-rotation starter than his ghastly ERA would suggest. Expect a FIP in the mid-4.00s next year.

Former Braves prospect Kyle Davies still can’t find the strike zone with GPS tracking. As a fly-ball pitcher with average K rates, Davies has to hone his control to have fantasy relevance. Adding a cutter to his arsenal and using his change-up more often, Brian Bannister raised his ground-ball rate significantly. That helped cure the gopher-itis that plagued him in years past. Robinson Tejeda impressed in some late-season starts and misses bats, but he makes Davies look like Greg Maddux.

The Bullpen: Though he battled shoulder problems, Joakim Soria was lights-out when he took the mound. The Mexicutioner whiffed a career-high 11.7 hitters per nine innings, with personal bests in outside swing percentage, contact rate, and first-pitch strike percentage to boot. Soria’s health bears watching (he dealt with a shoulder injury in 2007, as well), but he’s as wicked as they come. Kyle Farnsworth missed significant time with a groin strain, but did manage to whiff more than 10 hitters per nine frames. Juan Cruz was sidelined with a shoulder strain, and has now hit the DL four seasons running. Control has never been his strong suit, and his K rate dipped last year. Tejeda could work his way into the set-up role if he’s not needed in the rotation.

The Starting Lineup: Turning 24 in April, Billy Butler began to tap into his power last year – with an ISO nearing .200 – while also increasing his walk rate. He’s a quality hitter now, and he’s still improving. Alberto Callaspo seems unlikely to repeat last year’s power outburst (his ISO was nearly 40 points higher than his minor league mark), though his bat still trumps Chris Getz’s. Friends don’t let friends draft Yuniesky Betancourt. Mike Aviles, returning from Tommy John surgery, could enter the picture. Alex Gordon’s 2009 was wrecked by a hip injury, and he needs to answer questions about his ability to handle lefties and breaking stuff. Don’t make the mistake of writing him off, though. Despite those faults, he has been a league-average hitter, and there’s still potential for more.

David DeJesus offers steady, if unspectacular, production. Scott Podsednik’s return from the dead was fueled by a very high BABIP. Buyer beware. Slowed by shoulder, Achilles, and groin injuries, Rick Ankiel hit a wall (literally and figuratively) in 2009. If he can remain upright, he’s a good bet to return to his aggressive, slugging ways. Hitting became so unnatural to Jose Guillen that he tore his knee putting on a shin guard. Save yourself the pain of drafting him. Jason Kendall barely slugged .300 last season, and, at 35, he’s not suddenly going to revert to his halcyon days as a Pirate.

The Bench: A former first-round pick of the White Sox, Josh Fields lashes lefties and can actually draw a free pass every now and then. However, he has whiffed in over a third of his Major League plate appearances and is allergic to sliders. Getz makes plenty of contact and can swipe bases, though he offers little pop. He’ll battle it out at second base with Callaspo. Switch-hitter Brayan Pena provides more lumber than Kendall, though his receiving skills are poor. Mitch Maier doesn’t offer much upside. Grit isn’t a fantasy category, so feel free to ignore Willie Bloomquist unless you’re really desperate for stolen bases.

Overall team outlook: With Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez finding new zip codes last summer, the Indians organization is in full-blown rebuilding mode. The offense figures to be potent. However, the starting rotation is in disarray. There are talented arms on the cusp of the Majors and several more in the pipeline, but growing pains are inevitable.

The Starting Rotation: There might not be a less-settled unit in the Majors. Jake Westbrook, formerly a worm-killing, innings-eating control artist, looks to return from Tommy John surgery. His lack of whiffs limits his fantasy appeal, though. Have you seen Fausto Carmona’s sinker? He has lost all semblance of control since those midges swarmed him during the 2007 playoffs. Perhaps it was an omen. Speaking of sinkers, Justin Masterson has a nasty one that eats up righty batters. However, his low three-quarters release makes him vulnerable to lefties, and he must do a better job of limiting free passes.

David Huff is the best of Cleveland’s gaggle of low-upside lefties. His stuff isn’t great, but Huff has a strong minor league track record. Aaron Laffey, never one to miss bats, suffered an oblique injury and failed to paint the corners. Jeremy Sowers walked more batters than he whiffed last year, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher, too. Nothing to see here. Carlos Carrasco had an ugly big league intro, but he had a 3.30 K/BB ratio at Triple-A and has a nice fastball/change-up combo. The breaking stuff needs work. Mitch Talbot gets grounders and is stingy with the walks. He’s a big-league-ready fourth or fifth starter.

The Bullpen: Cleveland tossed considerable cash at Kerry Wood in free agency prior to the ’09 season, only to watch him struggle with his control and post a 4.15 FIP. His fastball was the culprit, as Wood’s mid-90s gas was 1.5 runs worse per 100 pitches than it was in 2008. Batters chose to let him back himself into a corner, swinging at few outside pitches. Wood should bounce back somewhat next year, but Chris Perez is breathing down his neck. Perez loses the strike zone at times, but the former Cardinals prospect has a sizzling fastball and slider, and punched out 10.7 hitters per nine frames last year.

The Starting Lineup: Matt LaPorta underwent hip and toe surgeries in October, so he might be behind as spring training opens. The key piece in the C.C. Sabathia swap, LaPorta has top-shelf power and a patient approach. Luis Valbuena showed more thump than expected, but he struggles against southpaws and will have to hold off Jason Donald. Though he’s likely to regress somewhat, Asdrubal Cabrera is a quality shortstop who added some steals to his game. Chopping the ball into the dirt more than 50% of the time, Jhonny Peralta had a power outage last season. He had trouble catching up to fastballs, as his performance against heat declined by a run per 100 pitches seen compared to 2008.

Michael Brantley has limited pop, but he’s a burner with a clue at the plate. You’ll never have another chance to acquire Grady Sizemore at a discount, so draft him and smile as he returns to his 2005-2008 level of production. He was hobbled by a sports hernia and an elbow injury last season, as well as a lower-than-usual BABIP. A healthy Sizemore is still a first-round talent. Shin-Soo Choo brings patience, power and surprising speed to the table. While he might not repeat 2009, he’s a well-rounded fantasy option. Travis Hafner is no longer a menacing slugger, and his aching shoulder continues to be a problem. However, Pronk did bounce back from an abysmal 2008 showing. Lou Marson has limited time to prove he’s more than a handy back-up backstop, as switch-hitting force Carlos Santana isn’t far off.

The Bench: Entering 2009, Andy Marte’s career was on life support. Once the pride of the Braves system, Marte devolved into a hacking mess, tanking in trials with the Indians in 2007 and 2008. Though still a free swinger, he raked at Triple-A last year and didn’t totally embarrass himself in the Majors. Trevor Crowe has some speed and a decent eye, but a lack of pop and injuries resign him to a back-up role. Donald scuffled at Triple-A last year while hindered by a knee injury. He could be Valbuena’s caddy against lefty pitching.