The White Sox hold a two-game lead over the Tigers in an up-for-grabs AL Central division. The rivals squared off this weekend in a crucial series, and tonight’s finale pits respective aces Chris Sale and Justin Verlander against one another. Sale has been a major reason the White Sox have held the division lead for this long, leading to speculation that he could dethrone Verlander in the Cy Young Award race.

While the 23-year-old lefty has turned in a fantastic season – especially considering it’s his first in the starting rotation – his award prospects should be tempered. His opponent is still king of the jungle.

The major difference between Sale’s and Verlander’s cases is playing time. Obviously, great pitchers help their team more and increase their own individual value by toeing the rubber more often. The near 40-inning gap between Sale and Verlander is integral to the discussion, because it truly has been all that separates the two starters. Aside from sheer playing time, they are having almost identical seasons.

Sale: 24 GP (23 GS), 157 IP, 25.0% K/PA, 6.3% BB/PA, 44% GB, 2.81 ERA, 3.23 SIERA
Verlander: 27 GS, 196.1 IP, 25.3% K/PA, 6.4% BB/PA, 40% GB, 2.80 ERA, 3.26 SIERA

Identical is being used in its literal sense here, as these pitchers are mere rounding errors away from each other in each of the relevant rate stats above. However, Verlander’s increased playing time has led to a WAR advantage of 1.5 wins. Verlander currently leads the junior circuit at 5.6 WAR, while Sale ranks third at 4.1. Though it’s easy to argue that Sale has pitched as effectively as Verlander on a start-by-start basis, Verlander has simply made more starts, and that goes a long way in accruing value.

The AL Cy Young Award landscape isn’t two pitchers deep, however, and since Sale ranks 3rd in WAR there is clearly someone sandwiched between him and Verlander. Felix Hernandez ranks between these two, and is actually just a hair behind Verlander with 5.5 WAR. Then again, Hernandez has thrown over half of his innings at Safeco Field, which has doubled as both the Mariners home park and a museum that reenacts the Deadball Era for interested fans this season. Even after accounting for the extreme disadvantage hitters face at Safeco, the playing time disparity bumps Hernandez over Sale.

Then there’s the matter of Sale’s teammate, Jake Peavy, having an equally good season. Through 26 starts and 181 innings, Peavy has 3.8 WAR to his name and similarly efficient and impressive peripherals. Of course, many voters still look at W-L record as a proxy for determining pitcher value and performance, and Sale’s 15-5 mark trumps Peavy’s 9-10 record. It also bests Verlander’s 12-7 and Felix’s 13-5. While Hernandez himself won the award with a 13-12 record in 2010, he was the clear choice that season. Right now, there are three reasonable choices and W-L record may loom large.

This season’s award race should prove interesting down the stretch, as Sale is the only pitcher in the race with a shot at 20 wins. However, he isn’t even likely to reach 200 innings, while his main opponents have 240 innings on their peripheries. Even if they did rack up that much playing time, voters could find reasons to not vote for them. Team performance could come into play for Hernandez, while a White Sox division title, plus a sexy wins total, could be enough to sway the vote in Sale’s favor.

This conflates will-win and should-win, which often happens in award discussions. Who will win is obviously up in the air right now, but there isn’t a clear-cut favorite. In terms of who should win, well, it shouldn’t be Sale. He has pitched very well this year but hasn’t pitched as often as Verlander or Felix, and the gap in WAR of over 1.5 wins is too much to ignore.

The Red Sox season hasn’t gone according to plan, and much of the blame has been placed on the shoulders of 62-year-old manager Bobby Valentine. Several members of the Red Sox are fed up with Valentine, and the situation reportedly came to a head in late July, when this group was highly critical of its manager and expressed those sentiments to ownership.

Regardless of whether or not these players informed ownership that they no longer wanted to play for Valentine, the new manager has undergone intense scrutiny this season. That tends to happen when a team with such high expectations is 59-62 through 121 games, 12.5 games out of first place in its division and five games out of the second wild card berth.

But much of this criticism is undeserved, as the Red Sox have experienced a litany of issues this year that have had far more of a material impact than the manager himself. While studies have shown the impact of a manager to be marginal at most over a 162-game season, it’s still a non-zero effect. However, injuries to key members of both the starting lineup and bullpen, strange and almost out-of-nowhere struggles from the starting rotation, and below average contributions from counted-on position players are why the Red Sox are on pace to miss the playoffs for the third straight season… not Valentine.

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The Red Sox are a disappointing 43-42 this season, in fourth place by a half-game over the Blue Jays, and 8.5 games out of first place in the AL East. However, despite their pitching struggles and numerous injuries, especially in the outfield, the Red Sox are merely 2.5 games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot. The playoffs are within reach, and as Jacoby Ellsbury gets back into the swing of things and Carl Crawford and Dustin Pedroia return from the disabled list, the Sox could make a serious postseason push. Though it would certainly help if Adrian Gonzalez was hitting at his normal level.

Through 85 games and 370 plate appearances, Gonzalez is hitting a measly .284/.330/.417. While his .322 wOBA meets the league average, he is a far greater hitter. He has a career .371 wOBA and a .395 mark over the last three seasons. Projection systems, which are based heavily on historical data, see him rebounding nicely down the stretch. But there is no guarantee that he completely rebounds and the possibility still exists that he’ll finish the year with a drastically lower wOBA. Whether he finishes the season hovering around a .320 wOBA, or closer to the .340 that ZIPS projects, his current and potential dropoffs are worthy of investigation.

Throughout history, there are plenty of examples of players whose wOBA dropped substantially as compared to their prior three-year averages. Among players who managed 1,000+ plate appearances over four consecutive years, and who batted at least 400 times in the fourth season – to avoid drop-offs due to injuries or reduced playing time – there were 187 such examples of players whose wOBA dropped by 70+ points.

However, a selection bias exists in the data in that players with extremely high wOBAs over a three-year span are more likely to experience larger drop-offs: Roger Hornsby’s .544 wOBA average from 1923-25, and his subsequent .396 mark in 1926 isn’t really a comp for Gonzalez. To get around that issue I restricted the data to players whose three-year wOBA average fell in the .370-.420 range. That dropped the list to 81 players who lost 70+ points of wOBA in that fourth season.

Most of the recent examples are players whose careers were essentially over after that fourth season. Sammy Sosa had a .387 wOBA from 2002-04, and a .292 wOBA in 2005. Roberto Alomar had a .404 wOBA from 1999-2001 and a .316 wOBA in 2002. Pat Burrell had a .382 wOBA from 2006-08 and a .304 mark in 2009. Jim Edmonds, like Gonzalez, had a .395 wOBA from 2004-06, but well to .316 in 2007.

The comparable players might not bode well for Gonzalez, but as Adam Dunn is showing us, sometimes players simply have fluky poor seasons. Among the group whose three-year average fell between .370 and .420, Dunn actually had the second-largest drop-off of all time, with a .385 average from 2008-10 and a .266 wOBA last season. Though his wOBA fell by 119 points, he now has a .370 wOBA and has rebounded nicely.

That being said, why exactly has Gonzalez struggled? According to an excellent post from ESPN’s Sweetspot affiliate Fire Brand of the American League, Gonzalez’s struggles revolve around plate discipline, an assertion backed up by the data. FanGraphs has Gonzalez swinging at 52.6% of his pitches seen, compared to his career 48.7% rate. He hasn’t topped 50% in this category since before he was a regular starter. His rate of swings out of the zone is up to a career-high 37.1%, and his career rate is just 29.1%. He has swung at 75.1% of pitches thrown his way in the zone, up from 69.9% last, but is making less contact on those pitches. And while his overall contact is slightly up, it has come more from pitches out of the zone, where worse contact is often induced by pitchers.

And while he has produced more effectively over the last two weeks – a .393/.404/.500 slash line and a .392 wOBA – some of his plate discipline stats are still askew. That productivity is accompanied by a 41.5% rate of out-of-zone swings, which is disconcerting since pitchers have only thrown 38.2% of pitches in the zone throughout this span.

He has also swung at 57.1% of all pitches, and while his approach has yielded solid results recently, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of a discernible change. Gonzalez started out slowly and has experienced some recent success despite approaching plate appearances in the same odd way. Perhaps he is being pitched differently and is yet to make adjustments.

The previously linked Fire Brand article found that pitchers are more inclined to challenge Gonzalez inside this year, instead of constantly staying low and away. Since he hasn’t made them pay for it, there hasn’t been any reason to limit their plate coverage. Gonzalez is likely too good to finish the season with merely league average production, but there is certainly precedent for substantial drop-offs in productivity, and his can be traced to a specific root cause. The Red Sox playoff hopes don’t entirely hinge on his production picking up, but given the uncertainties caused by numerous injuries to everyday players, having Gonzalez as anything but a sure thing clearly hurts.

Ryan Dempster pitched very well on Friday, shutting the Red Sox offense out over seven innings. It was the third straight start in which he tossed at least seven shutout innings, reducing his ERA to 2.11 in the process. With his typically strong peripherals, Dempster has already tallied 1.9 WAR in 81 innings, putting him on pace for his highest total since posting 5.2 WAR with the 2008 Cubs. However, given his contractual status and the Cubs futility this season, Dempster is likely to find himself finishing the season in another uniform.

While a few contenders — the Yankees and Dodgers, mostly — have already inquired on his availability, the team Dempster just recently blanked could and should have interest. The Red Sox interest in Cubs pitching doesn’t have to stop there, either, as Matt Garza is conceivably available as well. Both righties would help solidify the Red Sox starting rotation and help them get back into the running for a very obtainable playoff berth.

Neither pitcher would come cheap, but the Red Sox have a solid system and the front office familiarity — Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer run the Cubs now after having served together with the Red Sox for many years — could certainly help matters. The Red Sox might not instantly appear to be natural trade partners for the Cubs pitchers, but they stand to make up some ground as offensive contributors regress to the mean and return from injuries. Adding a 4-5 WAR pitcher to the mix could take them even farther.

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Despite being two games under .500 through the first week of May, the Philadelphia Phillies are still projected to make the playoffs. Their rotation boasts five effective pitchers, with three elite starters at the front, and they employ the best active closer in baseball. Pitching was always going to be their ticket to the post-season this year, as the team would go as far as its pitching carried it.

That sentiment rings true now more than ever, as the offense is scoring only 3.6 runs per game. Runs are much tougher to come by without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the lineup, but slow starts from counted on contributors like Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino have rendered the offense anemic quite often through their first 28 games. The Phillies 100 runs ranks 8th in the National League, but their per-game rate ranks 11th.

Obviously, scoring runs and winning games are strongly correlated – the more runs scored, the better the odds are of winning the game. However, this Phillies team is interesting in the sense that their starting rotation is so effective that they could still make the playoffs with a poor offense, which leads to the million-dollar question:

If the offense doesn’t improve and the Phillies make the playoffs, where would they rank among historically low-scoring playoff teams?

The inclusion of extra wild card teams muddies these waters a bit, as there is now a greater chance for everyone to make the playoffs, let alone low-scoring squads. This doesn’t skew our look through history insofar as what has actually happened. With that in mind, it’s imperative to remember that context is key. The Phillies 3.6 RPG average is meaningless without introducing the league average of 4.07 RPG for the senior circuit. Their RPG+, if you will, suggests they are scoring runs at 88 percent of the league rate. Numbers below 100 imply the offense is below average.

That adjusted rate is what we need to make accurate comparisons across various eras and scoring environments. Teams can have lower averages than the Phillies 3.6 RPG but a higher normalized rate given how frequently the league scored as a whole. I went ahead and normalized scoring rates by league and year, throughout history, and found these five teams as the lowest-scoring playoff contenders:

The Phillies, at 88.15, would top this list if they and the league continued scoring at the same rate, and they managed to make the playoffs. What’s even more noteworthy is that the NL East-leading Washington Nationals have scored fewer runs – just 93 over 27 games – and with an RPG+ of just 84.17, are the third lowest-scoring team in the National League.

Most of the teams above were from past eras, so what does the table look like if restricted to the Wild Card era of 1995-2011?

Again, both the Phillies and Nationals would rank as the lowest scoring teams, relative to their scoring environment, to make the playoffs if all applicable assumptions were realized. While the Phillies aren’t currently in the playoffs if the season ended today, the Nationals are 18-9 and lead the division. While much has been made about the Phillies rotation and offensive woes, the Nationals are essentially in the same boat, albeit with far better overall results.

The added wild card spot throws a wrinkle into this equation, as it’s entirely possible that some teams that just missed the playoffs from 1995-2011 would have qualified for the table above. I looked through the standings in each season of the Wild Card era, identified the teams that would have been the second wild card had it existed at the time, and compared their RPG+ to the five low-scoring teams above. Two teams – the 2009 Giants and 2010 Padres – would stake a claim as belonging on that low-scoring list if two wild cards were in play throughout the entire era.

In fact, the 2009 Giants would have actually been the lowest-scoring team to make the playoffs, as they posted a 91.49 RPG+ that season. They missed the Wild Card by four games – the Rockies won it at 92-70 – while scoring 4.06 runs in a 4.43 run league.

From 1995-2011, of all the teams that made the playoffs or would have made the playoffs if two wild cards were in play, the lowest-scoring team was the 2009 Giants and their 91.49 RPG+. The Nationals are currently at 84.51 while the Phillies are at 88.50. It’s still very early in the season, and both teams could see substantial shifts in their run scoring and prevention, but this is what they are up against. It is very possible that one of these teams will become the lowest-scoring playoff team in history.

Derek Jeter is off to a scorching start this season, hitting .382/.411/.618 through his first 74 plate appearances. His .432 wOBA currently ranks among the league’s best, and is almost 40 points higher than the next best shortstop in baseball.

For Jeter, this is simply a continuation of his torrid second half to the 2011 season. Over his last 388 plate appearances, dating back to July 2011, Jeter has a .379 wOBA. The sample is small enough that we can’t conclude he is currently that great of a hitter, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he continues to rake this year.

His wOBA since the second half of last season is made even more impressive by his age, as Jeter produced those numbers after turning 37 years old. And even if he finishes in the .340-.345 range he’ll still find himself in limited company, historically, relative to his age and position.

At a time when most shortstops have moved onto easier positions or have been relegated to part-time duty, Jeter is not only still chugging along, but producing quite effectively. In addition to hitting well, Jeter has also settled into the -5 fielding runs range recently, which, while below average, is far from poor.

But perhaps what is most interesting about Jeter is his eventual place in history given his tremendous career and the opportunities the Yankees have afforded him. Most 38 year olds don’t continue to start 140+ games at the infield’s toughest position, but what started as a courtesy to a homegrown legend has become a justifiable decision given Jeter’s 2.5-3.5 WAR level productivity.

Only 22 shortstops have tallied 600 or more plate appearances after turning 37 years old, indicative of the inherent selection bias at work: by that age, most former shortstops are replaced by younger, more agile defenders, or better hitters capable of playing similar defense.

With a .343 wOBA since the start of the 2011 season, Jeter ranks third among those 22 shortstops, behind Hall of Famers Luke Appling (.375) and Honus Wagner (.368). After Jeter there is a steep drop in production to Barry Larkin (.317) and Ozzie Smith (.314). Everyone in the top five is either in the Hall of Fame, or in Jeter’s case, will be enshrined five years after his career ends.

When exactly will his career end?

If he sustains some semblance of his July 2011-April 2012 production over the remainder of the season, he will not only play shortstop in 2013, but he may be able to turn down his 2014 option and obtain another multi-year deal to remain in the infield.

While that’s far into the future, it’s impossible to discuss the hypothetical without also considering what those extra years will do to his career hits total. By virtue of that, his rank among the all-time greats would also improve, which speaks volumes for a guy who looked finished just two years ago.

ZiPS projects another 139 hits this season, which would give Jeter 165 for the season and 3,253 for his career.

That total would move him up from 18th to 13th on the all-time hits list. He would finish the season two hits behind Eddie Murray for 12th, 30 hits behind Willie Mays for 11th, 62 hits behind Eddie Collins for 10th, and 66 hits behind Paul Molitor for 9th.

Barring injuries, he will pass all of those players next year. If he puts together a fantastic 2013 season, then Honus Wagner is also in reach at 162 hits away. Jeter would also fall 165 hits behind Cap Anson for 7th and 166 hits behind Carl Yastrzemski for 6th. Assuming he plays through 2014, at the very least, meets his 2012 projection of 165 hits and then averages 145 hits over 2013-14, he would end that campaign with 3,543 hits. That total would push him ahead of Tris Speaker for fifth place. Not to get carried away, but even a mediocre 2015 season would push him ahead of Stan Musial for 4th.

Jeter has already won five World Series titles and achieved practically all the success a major leaguer can ever hope to achieve. But in his case, the valid question must be asked — given this rarified air, is it worth it to continue playing to rise up one of the more prestigious charts? Would Jeter be so prideful to retire a shortstop and finish 6th or 7th on the all-time hits list than to move to LF or DH for a few years to move up to fourth or even third all-time?

Then again, if he continues to produce the way he has lately, in the 2.5-3.5 WAR range, he might not have to move off of shortstop and would remain a productive member of the lineup instead of a novelty act. Two years ago, the Yankees entered negotiations with Jeter with the understanding that this would probably be his final deal as a shortstop with the team. While the 2012 sample is still small, his seeming resurgence and defiance against natural aging curves suggest he has something left in the tank and may yet get another lucrative deal to captain an infield.