Batters Striking New Fear This Year

We’ve seen it happen time and time again, and the numbers agree: when a player shows power, pitchers adjust. They try to defuse that power bat by throwing fewer pitches in the zone, and fewer fastballs.

What we’d like to do here is turn the tables on this process by analyzing various hitters’ power situations based on which batters this season are seeing fewer pitches in the zone and fewer fastballs, and vice-versa.

It seems we can, and to do so we’ll use a few cool stats. The newest is Heart%, a stat created by Bill Petti that measures how often a pitch crosses the plate in the heart of the strike zone. We’ll also look at O-Swing%, which measures how often a hitter reaches at pitches outside the zone. And we’ll judge power using Isolated Slugging Percentage — slugging percentage minus batting average, or basically an extra-base hit rate.

Examining these statistics can help us identify which hitters likely have sustainable power breakouts and are worth targeting or keeping — and which fading sluggers would be best to avoid or let go.

Hitters being pitched around/enticed

Let’s look at the top of the list first. Here are the hitters who are seeing the fewest balls in the heart of the zone compared to last year. Let’s see if we can figure out why pitchers have changed their approach versus these batters.

Batter	Heart%	14 Heart%	Heart Diff	15 O-Swing%	15 ISO	ISO Diff	FB Diff
Yunel Escobar	19.2%	23.5%	-4.3%	32.7%	0.090	0.008	1.0%
Dustin Ackley	20.7%	24.9%	-4.2%	25.2%	0.139	-0.014	-1.4%
Billy Hamilton	22.7%	26.7%	-4.0%	27.9%	0.069	-0.036	-2.9%
Nelson Cruz	17.6%	21.4%	-3.7%	32.4%	0.245	-0.009	-0.3%
Brett Lawrie	22.0%	25.4%	-3.5%	36.7%	0.141	-0.033	-7.4%
Conor Gillaspie	19.3%	22.7%	-3.4%	35.5%	0.135	0.001	-4.8%
Jose Altuve	21.7%	25.1%	-3.4%	37.5%	0.125	0.013	0.9%
Kurt Suzuki	22.2%	25.4%	-3.3%	29.7%	0.084	-0.011	2.2%
Chris Young	22.3%	25.5%	-3.2%	28.8%	0.222	0.059	-4.8%
Andre Ethier	17.7%	20.8%	-3.1%	30.9%	0.209	0.089	-1.9%
J.J. Hardy	22.9%	26.0%	-3.1%	27.0%	0.087	-0.017	0.8%
Denard Span	21.9%	25.0%	-3.1%	26.6%	0.134	0.019	0.3%
Gregory Polanco	17.6%	20.6%	-3.0%	29.4%	0.101	-0.007	0.9%
Kolten Wong	19.7%	22.7%	-2.9%	33.3%	0.175	0.036	2.0%
Jose Reyes	20.7%	23.5%	-2.8%	34.1%	0.119	0.008	-0.7%
Miguel Cabrera	17.9%	20.6%	-2.7%	31.7%	0.234	0.023	1.0%
Matt Carpenter	21.9%	24.5%	-2.7%	19.9%	0.182	0.079	-2.3%
Evan Gattis	17.9%	20.5%	-2.6%	43.6%	0.210	-0.020	4.6%
Ryan Zimmerman	20.3%	22.8%	-2.5%	30.5%	0.137	-0.031	1.2%
Yasmani Grandal	19.0%	21.5%	-2.5%	23.1%	0.228	0.053	-0.6%

You can immediately see that not all entrants on this list are here for the same reason. Yes, Yunel Escobar has surged again this year, and re-found his power stick, to some extent. Nelson Cruz is obliterating the ball. Ever since Jose Altuve added the leg kick, he’s had more power, and pitchers have become more wary of him. These players are on this list because pitchers have changed their approach due to power growth.

Others are here because of their flaws. By FanGraphs’ pitch-type values, Billy Hamilton only had three pitches that he could handle last year, and the fastball was one of them. So he’s seeing fewer fastballs and fewer pitches down the middle. Fastballs are Brett Lawrie’s favorite pitch, and now teams are going to extremes to feed him breaking pitches, which don’t normally head down the middle. Only three batters reach on pitches outside the zone more than Evan Gattis, so why throw him anything in the middle of the zone?

There’s a little bit of a chicken and egg thing going on here, for sure. Dustin Ackley had a .179 ISO this April — little else went right, but it looked like maybe he was going to capitalize on the power growth he’d shown so far. Then maybe he couldn’t handle the finer approach. Gregory Polanco isn’t hitting for more power this year, but he’s having trouble laying off the pitch on the edges.

So where is this analysis most useful? Let’s lay a trio of less established players enjoying a power surge on you: Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter, and Yasmani Grandal. Two of the three are seeing fewer fastballs, and none of the three has a really tough time laying off pitches outside the zone. They’ve shown more power so far this season, and pitchers believe that power is real — and so should you.

Hitters being challenged

Let’s look at the other side, the batters who are being challenged more often.

Batter	Heart%	14 Heart	Heart Diff	15 O-Swing	15 ISO	ISO Diff	FB Diff
Jonny Gomes	23.4%	19.1%	4.2%	21.0%	0.108	0.013	1.1%
Carlos Beltran	22.5%	18.4%	4.0%	29.8%	0.169	0.000	1.0%
Colby Rasmus	21.2%	17.4%	3.8%	26.8%	0.237	0.014	-0.8%
Yonder Alonso	24.5%	20.8%	3.7%	26.7%	0.094	-0.063	-3.1%
Brandon Phillips	24.9%	21.4%	3.4%	38.3%	0.094	-0.012	0.4%
Travis Snider	24.1%	20.8%	3.3%	28.3%	0.126	-0.048	-4.4%
Tyler Flowers	25.2%	21.9%	3.3%	30.6%	0.153	-0.002	1.1%
Francisco Cervelli	24.0%	20.7%	3.3%	22.2%	0.098	-0.032	6.0%
Hanley Ramirez	22.2%	19.0%	3.2%	33.0%	0.199	0.034	-0.6%
Michael Morse	20.5%	17.3%	3.2%	35.0%	0.078	-0.118	-2.1%
Caleb Joseph	23.5%	20.4%	3.1%	31.4%	0.140	-0.006	-0.8%
Rene Rivera	23.9%	21.0%	2.9%	36.1%	0.115	-0.065	-0.8%
Wilin Rosario	23.1%	20.2%	2.8%	40.3%	0.170	0.002	-2.9%
Chris Owings	26.0%	23.4%	2.6%	40.5%	0.092	-0.053	0.2%
Leonys Martin	24.1%	21.5%	2.6%	32.0%	0.105	0.015	4.8%
Mike Aviles	24.6%	22.0%	2.5%	26.0%	0.095	-0.001	5.7%
Troy Tulowitzki	20.7%	18.2%	2.5%	33.8%	0.162	-0.101	-0.1%
Marlon Byrd	23.7%	21.2%	2.5%	39.3%	0.224	0.043	-0.6%
Mark Teixeira	22.9%	20.5%	2.5%	22.4%	0.290	0.108	2.0%
Kyle Seager	22.3%	20.1%	2.3%	29.4%	0.179	-0.007	4.1%

There are fewer head scratchers on this list, but even those can make a little sense if you poke around. Hanley Ramirez was dealing, but then he crashed into the wall and the power disappeared for a while. Perhaps pitchers were taking advantage of the injury. Mark Teixeira? Well, he’s reaching less than almost anyone on this list. Maybe his patience has forced pitchers inside the zone.

For the low-powered guys, this list makes complete sense. Jonny Gomes may not be hitting for much worse power this year, but it’s his second year without much sock. Yonder Alonso, Francisco Cervelli, Leonys Martin — none of these are really power threats, so it makes sense to make sure you don’t give them a free pass. They can’t hurt you terribly if they do make good contact.

In Brandon Phillips, Travis Snider, Michael Morse, and Chris Owings, we may have our most damning trio. The 34-year-old Phillips is definitively post-peak, and his power has been waning for years. Snider has never capitalized on what was supposed to be good power. Michael Morse was hurt. Chris Owings had shoulder surgery in the offseason and told me earlier this season that he’s changed his follow through (he’s “cutting it shorter” now) in order to keep that shoulder healthy. There’s only bad news here.

Troy Tulowitzki might make for the most interesting case here. He’s still a power threat, but his power numbers are down this year. He’s swinging more than he’s swung since his rookie year. That combination of aggressiveness and soft contact has emboldened some pitchers. It’s meant 25 more pitches down the heart of the zone so far, and he hasn’t done much with them.

Outlook

It’s clear that you can’t just look at one of these stats and see the whole picture. For that matter, there aren’t any statistics that don’t require context. But if we look at how a batter is being pitched — using a few different stats — we can spot breakouts and declines worth believing in.

We can trust that Kolten Wong, Yasmani Grandal, Andre Ethier and Matt Carpenter can sustain their current power numbers, for instance, because pitchers are showing us as much by way of their pitch offerings and locations. Yet pitchers are also showing us that Carlos Beltran, Brandon Phillips, Travis Snider, Michael Morse, Chris Owings and maybe even Troy Tulowitzki aren’t quite the same power threats they once were.