Archive for 2013 Second Opinion

I’m happy to announce the fantasy values have come to FanGraphs+! Based on Steamer projections, these values are for standard, OBP, and “only” leagues based on the following descriptors: 12 teams, 23 starting lineup slots, $260 budget. They will appear on the projections’ leaderboard for FanGraphs+ subscribers.

The methodology for these values has long floated around the site, but there are a few minor changes that have been made to better the accuracy and efficacy of these values.

The replacement levels have been altered to cover a full league’s worth of players. In the past, we had assumed that the last round of two contained replacement players, but discarding this assumption leads to fuller, more accurate auction values. Now, the top 276 players are worth a combined $3120, which is the full budgeted amount for a 12-team auction draft.

In the past, we’d limited results to players that met a certain at-bat or innings threshold. This is no longer the case. However, there is still need for a baseline uninfluenced by low counting stats, the league averages and standard deviations were calculated using the players with at least 350 ABs or 40 IP.

Enjoy!

Welcome!

Thank you for your contribution to FanGraphs. You’ll see new content in this blog every week, but to make sure you don’t miss the articles prepared specifically for this product, here’s your table of contents for the ‘annual’ portion of FanGraphs+.

Enjoy!

Impact Fantasy Rookies for 2013, by Marc Hulet
Basic Questions: Potentially Useful, If Marginal, Prospects, by Carson Cistulli
Should You Draft a Prospect In Your Re-Draft League? by Chris Cwik
Finding The Next Fernando Rodney, by Jack Moore
Is There An Adjustment Time for Players Changing Leagues? by Jeff Zimmerman
Snake Draft 401, by Michael Barr
Auction Strategy and Strategies, by Eno Sarris
Do Speedy Players Really Put Pressure on a Defense? by Dan Wade
Projecting X: How to Project Players, by Mike Podhorzer
Auction Values For All Three ottoneu Formats, by Chad Young

Bobby Abreu

Profile: Abreu, 39 this spring, remains useful because he still draws a ton of walks (14.4% in 2012), but otherwise his game has evaporated. His power is gone (.100 isolated slugging percentage), he’s stopped stealing bases (just six in 2012), and his average has sat in the .250-range the last three years. Abreu remains unsigned as of this writing and has worked out for a few teams at first base, but even gaining some extra position eligibility won’t increase his fantasy value. He’s an end-of-the roster guy who won’t kill you in on-base percentage leagues, nothing more. (Mike Axisa)

Quick Opinion: Abreu, soon to be 39, fits best as an end-of-the-roster guy in on-base percentage leagues. He doesn’t hit for power or many bases anymore, plus his average has been middling for years. There’s not much left in the tank for a former elite fantasy player.

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Chase d’Arnaud

Profile: Chase d’Arnaud has shown the Pirates his speed in the minors, but that’s about it. The Buccos have better young options at shortstop, so d’Arnaud isn’t exactly a lock to take playing time from Clint Barmes should Pittsburgh fall out of the playoff race early. His career trajectory likely labels him as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement from here on out, so he’ll have no real value to fantasy owners. Dare I say it, but d’Arnaud shouldn’t even be bought for a dollar in ottoneu leagues. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Chase d’Arnaud has speed on the basepaths, but he can’t get on base nearly enough to stay in the lineup. He’s not even worth stashing for a dollar in ottoneu leagues.

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Travis Hafner

Profile: For the last few years, Hafner has had a guaranteed starting job — when healthy — by virtue of an eight-figure-per-year contract to be the Indians everyday designated hitter. With the end of that ill-fated deal, Hafner is looking for a new home, and the options may be limited. There are only 15 AL teams, and only so many of them are going to be interested in an injury-prone full-time DH on the wrong side of 30 with a heavy platoon split. Fantasy players will have the same issue — do you really have a roster spot for a Util-only player who you should only use against righties? Even if he ends up on the Yankees as is rumored as of the time of this writing? If so, Hafner will mash for you about half the time, but if your roster isn’t deep enough to platoon him (and weather his inevitable trips to the disabled list), don’t waste the spot. (Chad Young)

Quick Opinion: What fantasy team couldn’t benefit from a part-time, injury-prone utility-only player with a heavy platoon split? Oh…right…well, if you can afford the roster spot, Hafner will crush righties for you.

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Manny Machado

Profile: Manny Machado went through the usual rookie struggles last season. He was far too much of a free-swinger, walking in just 4.5% of his plate appearances. He did show solid power, hitting seven home runs in 202 plate appearances, and he has a track record of adding value on the basepaths. He’s a good bet to be in a full-time role next season, but it will probably come at third, where Machado would have much less value. His value would increase substantially if he moved over to short, where he could be a fringe starter in most leagues. He’ll be just 20-years-old this year, so he may need more time to adjust to the majors. He might not become a star next season, but he’s still on the path to be a very promising player in the future. His positional eligibility will play a big role on whether he’s worth a mid-round pick, and J.J. Hardy is still under contract until the end of 2014. (Chris Cwik)

Quick Opinion: Machado is far more valuable as a shortstop, but is slated to play third next season. At just 20 years old, he can’t be expected to perform like a star immediately, but his potential makes him an intriguing late round pick.

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Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Profile: Of the 193 players to post at least 400 plate appearances last year, only seven had a higher Three True Outcomes percentage (walks + strikeouts + homers divided by PA) than Saltalamacchia’s 45.09%. Looking strictly in the catching realm, only Mike Napoli had a higher TTO% than did Saltalamacchia. Staying among the catchers, we find that of the 18 that posted at least 400 PA, only two hit more homers than did Salty, which points to him being a potentially valuable commodity. But unfortunately for him, there are generally at least four other categories, and in those he fared poorly — 11th in runs scored, 13th in RBI, 17th in batting average and tied for dead last in stolen bases. This makes him a generally poor play in linear weights leagues like ottoneu, and a potentially odious play in standard 5×5 leagues. Also clouding Salty’s outlook is his playing time in the coming year. He may be squeezed by Ryan Lavarnway and David Ross, and potentially Mike Napoli as well. Salty could also eventually be traded, but even if he manages to equal his 2012 playing time, he’s unlikely to help your team all that much. (Paul Swydan)

Quick Opinion: A Three True Outcomes beast, Saltalamacchia doesn’t have enough success when he does put the ball in play to be a great fantasy option. If all you need from your catcher is home runs, he’s a decent play, but if all you need from your catcher is home runs then your league is weird.

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Fernando Abad

Profile: For lack of a better pun, Fernando has been pretty Abad thus far in his major league career. In 88 games (six starts) for the Astros, Abad has thrown 84.2 innings with a 1-11 record, a 5.09 ERA and a 1.559 WHIP. Abad now finds himself with an invite to Spring Training with the Nationals. At the end of last season, Abad had a few starts with the Astros and unsurprisingly he didn’t pitch all that well, but most of the damage occurred in the fifth inning (six earned runs in two innings) when Abad’s stamina was likely an issue after pitching out of the bullpen for the entire season. While Abad might be better suited for a fantasy razzball team, he is a lefty and there is a reason fathers joke about forcing their sons to only use their left hand. Abad’s handedness should give him another chance at the major league level, and it might occur this season for the Nationals. But of course, the chances aren’t too high that he will be any Agood. (Ben Pasinkoff)

Quick Opinion: Whether it’s starting or relieving, lefty Fernando Abad has a chance to make the the Washington Nationals’ opening day roster.

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Armando Galarraga

Profile: After walking more batters than he struck out in an inauspicious stint with the Astros’ big league club last summer, he was outrighted to Triple-A and currently has no value even in the deepest of leagues. (JP Breen)

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Darren O’Day

Profile: Darren O’Day is a great under the radar relief pitcher for 2013. First, he is good. Taking out his 2011 season when he spent time on the disabled list for his shoulder and hip, the 30-year-old righty has had an ERA under 2.30 in every of the last four seasons. To go with the low ERA, his career WHIP stands at 1.06 and he also owns a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.4. The K/BB stood at 4.9 last season. The Orioles used O’Day exclusively as the eighth inning set up man over the last month of the season with him getting a hold in each of the last five games in which he appeared. Nothing points to Johnson losing the closer role before the start of the season, but pitchers get hurt or blow up. O’Day looks primed to be a closer and he can generate some great counting stats in the mean time. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Darren O’Day is lights-out as Baltimore’s setup man and could step in if Jim Johnson falters as the closer.

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