Archive for ESPN Insider 2013

It’s hard to feel shortchanged by this year’s NLCS, because the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have arguably the two deepest, most talented rosters in the league. These two franchises have been competing against each other since the 19th century, and the previous time the Dodgers made the playoffs, in the 2009 NL Division Series, it was they who ended the Cardinals’ season in a series that will long be remembered for Matt Holliday’s flubbed catch.

This promises to be a lengthy, hard-fought series for the right to advance to the World Series. Here’s a look at the key matchups and under-the-radar players.

Cardinals’ X factor: Michael Wacha

In Wacha’s final start of the regular season, he came within one out of a no-hitter against the Nationals. In Game 4 of the NLDS against the Pirates, he took another no-hitter into the eighth inning. He’s also all of 22 years old with 10 starts under his belt, so there’s more than a little potential for volatility here in both directions.

For the Cardinals, one of the downsides of needing Game 5 to eliminate the Pirates is that ace Adam Wainwright won’t be available until Game 3, so St. Louis needs its other starters to step up against the rested Dodgers rotation. Wacha is undeniably talented — 74 strikeouts in 72 innings, including his NLDS start — but still inexperienced, so how he responds to the growing spotlight in what might be two head-to-head starts against Clayton Kershaw could tell the story of the series.

Dodgers’ X factor: Don Mattingly

The fourth and final game of the NLDS victory over Atlanta will be remembered for two eighth-inning managerial decisions that loomed large. After Atlanta’s Fredi Gonzalez went with David Carpenter to hold a 3-2 lead rather than give the ball to the dominant Craig Kimbrel, Juan Uribe slammed a two-run homer that proved to be the winning margin … but only after Mattingly had called twice for Uribe to give Carpenter an out with a sacrifice bunt, even though Yasiel Puig was already in scoring position and Uribe had proven throughout the season that bunting isn’t a skill he has.

That came on the heels of a Game 2 head-scratcher that had Mattingly calling for a bases-loading intentional walk so that the struggling Paco Rodriguez could face Jason Heyward rather than Reed Johnson — a decision that ended as poorly as one would have expected.

Mattingly showed a deft touch with his starters by lifting the ineffective Hyun-Jin Ryu after three innings in Game 3 and successfully starting Kershaw on short rest in Game 4, but every decision gets magnified in the playoffs, and his choices thus far have often been questionable at best.

Cardinals’ key reliever: Randy Choate

With St. Louis expected to use exclusively right-handed starters in the NLCS, it will fall on manager Mike Matheny to effectively use his bullpen to neutralize lefty Dodgers bats such as Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez. Kevin Siegrist will help with that, but he’s so effective against hitters from both sides that he’s more of a full-inning type than a situational one, meaning that ageless ex-Dodger Choate will be the true lefty specialist here. (Choate appeared in 19 more games than Siegrist, yet threw 4 1/3 fewer innings.)

Choate, 38, hasn’t allowed a homer to a left-handed hitter in more than two years, a streak he’ll need to keep alive in big spots in the late innings.

Dodgers’ key reliever: Paco Rodriguez

For most of the year, the young lefty with the funky delivery was one of Mattingly’s main bullpen weapons, striking out 63 in 54 1/3 innings with a sold 3.08 FIP as he became Kenley Jansen’s primary setup man. Through the end of August, he’d allowed opponents to hit just .140/.214/.185 against him.

But as September arrived, Rodriguez struggled terribly (.308/.438/.731), then allowed six of the eight Braves he faced in the NLDS to reach, including a Heyward home run. Chris Capuano is more of a long reliever at this point, so if Rodriguez can’t be trusted, Mattingly is left with only J.P. Howell as a lefty reliever, potentially creating some matchup problems.

Key matchup: Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Cardinals’ offense

With Kershaw and Zack Greinke leading the way (more on them below), the Cardinals absolutely have to get to the lesser Dodgers starters in order to keep pace. Unfortunately for them, they’ll likely see the lefty Ryu in Game 3, and only one team in the NL had a harder time hitting lefty pitching than St. Louis did.

Ryu had a wonderful debut season in the United States, but struggled badly in Game 3 of the NLDS, lasting just three innings. Interestingly, he has a reverse split — he was more effective against righties (.280 wOBA) than lefties (.322 wOBA), making this likely Game 3 showdown a key one for the series. If the series goes to a full seven games, the Cardinals could see a lefty starter four times.

Cardinals’ key bench player: Kolten Wong

With Allen Craig still nursing a foot injury, Matt Adams has moved into the lineup and left the Cardinals’ bench almost entirely devoid of offensive utility. That could be a real problem as the games get tight, because Adron Chambers, Shane Robinson, Wong, and whoever isn’t starting at shortstop between Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma, are less-than-dangerous threats. (Craig is now claiming he could play in the NLCS, but even if he does, it’s unclear how effective he would be.)

Wong, who is coming off a very good .303/.369/.466 season in Triple-A, is really the best of this bunch and should get the high-leverage pinch-hitting opportunities. He very well might be the starting second baseman next season, and Matt Carpenter’s defensive versatility allows him to play five positions. Late-game double-switches that take advantage of moving Carpenter as needed could allow Wong to play a surprising role.

Dodgers’ key bench player: Michael Young

Young’s best days are long behind him, as is the value he once provided with his glove, but he’s clearly become Mattingly’s top pinch-hitting option. Mattingly rarely used his bench in the NLDS — Young and Ethier were the only pinch hitters used — and Ethier now hopes to be healthy enough to move back into the lineup.

That makes Young the man who is likely to get the bulk of important pinch-hitting appearances late in games. Now appearing in his fourth consecutive postseason, it’s going to fall to Young — not Nick Punto or Tim Federowicz or Skip Schumaker — to make the most of those chances.

Key stat: 76.5 percent

That’s the percentage of starts this season in which Kershaw (28 of 35) and Greinke (21 of 29) allowed two runs or fewer. They are lined up to start four games in this series, and that gives the Dodgers an edge in the pitching department — especially since Wainwright won’t be available before Game 3.

That percentage actually might be a little misleading, because it includes Greinke’s road back from the broken collarbone he suffered in April; the previous time he allowed more than two earned runs was July 27, more than two months ago. Since then, the duo has allowed two runs or fewer in an incredible 23 of 24 starts, making for a huge uphill battle for the Cardinals’ offense.

Modest proposal: Give Shelby Miller a home start

This is unlikely to happen, because Joe Kelly or Lance Lynn is likely to start Game 1, but it should. Matheny chose Lynn to start the second game of the NLDS, and Lynn couldn’t deliver, allowing five runs in less than five innings as the Cardinals fell 7-1. That, along with Wacha’s ascendance, left Miller without a start in the series — an odd fate for a pitcher who finished the year right between Cy Young Award candidates Felix Hernandez and Chris Sale in the overall ERA rankings.

Miller did have a somewhat tougher go of it in the second half, compared to his first, but he rebounded in September (.238/.317/.324 line against him), and he’s got massive home/road splits (.253 wOBA against in St. Louis as opposed to .345 on the road) that basically make him Wainwright (who had a .252 wOBA) at home. He should be a candidate to start at least one game in St. Louis.

Prediction: Dodgers in 6

The Red Sox and Rays have already matched up 19 times this year; the Red Sox went 12-7 in those contests. These two teams know each other, and there won’t be any secrets when the division series between them kicks off on Friday. So, what factors are going to determine whether the Rays can the turn the tide on their AL East rival and advance to the ALCS? Let’s take a look.

Rays X-Factor: Jose Molina

The Red Sox offense is notoriously patient, and no team in baseball swung at fewer pitches in 2013 than Boston did. Guys like Daniel Nava, Stephen Drew, and Jonny Gomes go up there looking to take pitches early to get into fastball counts, and this approach bleeds through the entire line-up.

Molina is the guy who could help the Rays exploit those tendencies. He is perhaps the game’s most notorious pitch framer, using a complete lack of movement behind the plate to convince umpires that pitches off the plate were actually in the zone. He’s gotten so good at this that getting rung up on a pitch off the plate is now occasionally referred to as “getting Molina’d”.

If Molina can turn a few early balls into strikes, the patient Red Sox hitters might find themselves regularly down 0-1 or 1-2 instead of being in good hitters accounts, and that makes things a whole different ballgame.

Red Sox X-Factor: Mike Napoli

With Matt Moore and David Price set to pitch the first two games of the series, and Moore likely slotted in for a Game 5 start if it gets that far, Boston’s going to see a bunch of left-handed pitching in this series. With David Ortiz likely to be somewhat neutralized, Napoli is going to be the team’s primary power hitter, and they’ll need his lefty mashing ways to advance in this series.

Boston’s offense was the best in baseball against right-handers this year, posting a 122 wRC+, but the team isn’t likely to see many right-handed pitchers if their right-handed bats like Napoli can’t do some damage. It’s not just that he needs to create runs, but he needs to help force bullpen maneuvers that bring right-handers in to face the rest of the line-up. The longer Moore, Price, and Jake McGee are on the hill, the better Tampa’s chances of winning. Napoli needs to be the one to make sure they don’t stick around too long.

Rays Key Reliever: Alex Torres

As noted, the Red Sox line-up is notably weaker against left-handed relievers, and Torres is the kind of pitcher who Maddon can trust to pitch multiple innings to maintain that advantage on days when the team starts a right-handed pitcher. Torres gave the Rays a brilliant season, pitching well against both lefties and righties, so he doesn’t have to be used situationally. If Joe Maddon needs to get David Ortiz out in the 5th inning, he can turn to Torres and still trust him to get the ball through the 6th or even 7th inning, as he faced 10 or more batters in a game five times throughout the season.

Red Sox Key Reliever: Brandon Workman

Workman may be an inexperienced rookie who posted a 4.97 ERA in his time in the majors, but expect John Farrell to ask him to get some important outs in this series, and don’t be surprised if he turns in some dominant performances. His ERA masks how well he threw, but his 26% strikeout rate could be a taste of things to come. Without having to worry about pacing himself in starts, Workman can dial his fastball up to 96 and attack hitters with power stuff, and he may very well end up doing for Boston this year what Trevor Rosenthal did for the Cardinals last year.

Key Match-Up: Jon Lester vs Evan Longoria

With Lester slated to pitch Games 1 and 5 (if necessary) for the Red Sox, there’s going to be a lot riding on his left arm. Unfortunately for Lester, the Rays best hitter is right-handed, and Lester is significantly weaker against opposite handed hitters. Delmon Young, Wil Myers, and Desmond Jennings can be beaten even by lefties, but Lester’s going to have to figure out how to keep Longoria from driving the ball. In their career, they’ve met 63 times and Longoria has eight extra base hits.

Rays Key Bench Player: Matt Joyce

With the acquisition of David DeJesus, Joyce’s playing time has taken a bit of a hit, and he was out of the line-up in both of the team’s elimination game victories. Joyce, however, is an above average hitter who can really hit right-handed pitching, and should be an effective pinch-hitter for Joe Maddon. The key will be to pick spots where John Farrell isn’t going to counter with a lefty, because Joyce is about as good at hitting southpaws as I am.

Red Sox Key Bench Player: Xander Bogaerts

Farrell has made it clear that he’s willing to consider pinch-hitting Bogaerts for Stephen Drew against tough left-handers if the situation is deemed necessary. Bogaerts turned 21 on October 1st and has all of 50 big league plate appearances, but there’s a strong likelihood that he’s going to be sent up to the plate to try and get a big hit in a key situation. Pinch-hitting is hard for anyone, and Bogaerts has started nearly every game he’s played growing up, but the talent is there for him to grab the big stage and announce his presence as the Red Sox next great star.

Key Stat: Rays team wRC+ of 108

Everyone always thinks of Tampa Bay as a pitching-and-defense team that scratches and claws out enough runs to win, but this isn’t that kind of team. This team can hit, and their offensive production overall was 5th best in baseball, once you factor in their home park. Their attack is more to throw nine quality hitters at you than to scare with a few elite bats surrounded by glaring holes, but their approach is equally effective. Don’t underestimate this team’s ability to score runs.

Modest Proposal: The Red Sox should bunt a lot.

The Rays are baseball’s most notorious shifters, moving guys even within the same at-bat based on what the count is and where they expect a batted ball to go on that specific pitch. They routinely take Evan Longoria away from third base and put him on the right side of the infield against a left-handed hitter, and teams rarely make them pay for this alignment by bunting the ball toward the abandoned position. Without facing a penalty for their actions, the Rays just keep shifting.

The Red Sox should make them pay when they leave a huge patch of grass unprotected, and with several days to prepare for this possibility, let’s see if they worked on pushing the ball down the third base line so they can take the free base being offered.

For the second straight season, the A’s and Tigers will meet in the American League Division Series. Last year’s series was hotly contested, with each of the first four games being decided by two runs or fewer before Detroit broke things open at the end of Game 5. This series should be just as competitive.

Key matchup: Brandon Moss vs. Tigers starting pitchers

Since arriving in Oakland, Moss has brutalized right-handed pitching. His 158 wRC+ against righties during the past two seasons ranks eighth in baseball, and has easily been the best on the A’s. With the fearsome foursome in Detroit — all righties — the burden will fall on Moss to produce. Oakland will especially need him for power, as they are uncertain if they can rely on the hurting Yoenis Cespedes from that standpoint.

Athletics’ X factor: Sonny Gray

The club’s first-round pick in 2011, Gray quickly ascended to the majors and has posted great results since his arrival. His 74 FIP- was easily the best mark among Oakland starters, as was his 24.8 percent strikeout rate. But there are a couple of caveats. First, he only threw 64 innings in The Show. In addition, six of his 10 starts came against the Astros, Mariners and Twins.

On the other hand, if you subscribe to the theory that a pitcher has the upper hand the first time he faces a team, Gray holds all the cards. Not only has he never faced the Tigers, he never faced a Tigers affiliate in the minors and hasn’t faced them in spring training either. The A’s have to hope that works in their favor.

Tigers’ X factor: Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera has compiled at least 80 plate appearances in 53 months during his major league career. He has never had a lower slugging percentage in a single month than the .333 mark he posted this September. It has been some time since Cabrera has been right health-wise, but in the postseason the Tigers need him to produce.

As good as the Tigers are offensively, they are powered by Cabrera. With Jhonny Peralta back, they could slide him or Jose Iglesias over to third base if Cabrera is still too hurt to play, but that is a pretty big drop-off offensively. It’s no coincidence that Detroit’s run production suffered markedly in September.

Athletics’ key reliever: Sean Doolittle

One of the 10-15 best relievers in the game the past two seasons, the lefty-throwing Doolittle hums it in there at better than 94 mph, and he does so as frequently as possible. Over the past two years no qualified reliever has thrown his four-seam fastball as frequently as has Doolittle, who throws it 87 percent of the time. When he does mix in his other pitches though, he is able to get swings and misses on them.

In essence, Doolittle is dominant. And Doolittle is no left-handed specialist. He is just as capable of setting down right-handed hitters as he is lefties. In fact, for his career, he has posted a better FIP and xFIP against righties (2.31 and 3.28) than he has lefties (2.74 and 3.67). This will be key because while he is most likely to be used against Prince Fielder, he won’t be vulnerable against Victor Martinez and Peralta on the way to Alex Avila.

Tigers’ key reliever: Joaquin Benoit

Tigers manager Jim Leyland made fewer bullpen decisions than most this season — the only team to make fewer pitching changes was the Royals, and then only by one. However, this was sort of necessary too, as Detroit had just 103 shutdowns, last in all of baseball (yes, they had even fewer than the Astros). With 30 shutdowns against four meltdowns, Benoit was the only reliever on the team to finish with at least 10 more shutdowns than meltdowns, and is really the only high-leverage reliever.

Of the Tigers pitchers likely to make the ALDS roster, only three had a pLI (Average Leverage Index) of 1.00 or higher: Benoit (1.71), Jose Veras (1.40) and Al Alburquerque(1.01). Leyland will need all three of them, but of the trio, Benoit has the longest track record of domination. Unfortunately, Benoit wasn’t that strong toward the end of the season (4.38 ERA in September), but he didn’t have any dramatic drop in velocity, so there is no reason for alarm, especially because momentum means very little heading into the postseason. That said, Benoit will need to be on his A-game — pun intended.

Athletics’ key bench player: Daric Barton

With Cespedes laboring through a shoulder injury, he may see some more time off than Oakland would like. If he does, Moss figures to spell him in left field, leaving Barton as the last man standing at first base. He won that role partly by default, as the A’s won’t carryNate Freiman on the ALDS roster. But Barton may also be key off the bench as he can draw out at-bats and force the Tigers pitchers to throw a lot of pitches. Oakland’s best chance of winning this series is to get to the bullpen as quickly as possible, and Barton and his double-digit walk rate can help them achieve that goal.

Tigers’ key bench player: Andy Dirks

With Peralta back, the most likely outcome for him is to play left field. This will make Dirks a backup, and he can be valuable in this role defensively. Peralta is learning left field on the fly — he had never played the outfield before the final weekend of the regular season. Austin Jackson is solid in center, but has battled some nagging leg injuries this season, and Torii Hunter is a good defender only by reputation at this point, having posted a below-average UZR in seven of the last eight seasons. In fact, Hunter’s poor defense has dragged down the defensive ratings of the entire Tigers outfield. Between him and Peralta, Dirks should find himself caddying for someone toward the end of every game.

Key stat: 77 FIP- for Tigers starting rotation

The Tigers’ 77 FIP- is tied for the best mark in baseball history (1901-present) with the 2011 Phillies and 1971 White Sox (see table), and they’re probably even a little better than that in the postseason, as fifth starter Rick Porcello moves to the bullpen. With an 88 FIP-, Porcello was good himself this season, but he still lags behind Max Scherzer (68), Justin Verlander (81),Anibal Sanchez (59) and Doug Fister (81).

Even against the A’s offense — which did hit righties well this season — this is the largest edge in the series and the biggest reason to put faith in Detroit. The Tigers rotation was tops in the majors this season at 25.3 WAR this season, which was 9.3 WAR more than the next-best team’s rotation and more than double that of the A’s rotation (11.2, 17th place overall).

Modest proposal: A’s need to be aggressive with their bullpen

Oakland’s starting rotation isn’t bad per se, but it’s better described as solid than spectacular. Only Bartolo Colon totaled more than 2.0 WAR, and at some point his act is going to wear thin. Combine that with the fact that hitters fare increasingly better against starting pitchers the more times they face them in the same game, and manager Bob Melvin is almost compelled to be aggressive with his bullpen. Luckily, he has the horses to make this happen.

In his bullpen, he has Brett Anderson, who is normally a starter and should be able to work extended stints. He also has Dan Otero and Jesse Chavez, both of whom recorded more than three outs per outing with regularity this season. Deploying this trio — who posted FIPs ranging from 2.12 to 3.33 as relievers this season — will give the A’s key length without sacrificing quality. Also, with Doolittle, Ryan Cook and Grant Balfour all capable of closing out games, Oakland has the freedom to insert one of them early in the game if there is a high-leverage situation. Given how good the top of Detroit’s lineup is, Oakland’s starting pitchers should rarely — if at all — be allowed to face it a third time.

Prediction: Tigers in 5

The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers face off in one of the more interesting divisional series of this postseason. The Braves led the NL East nearly wire to wire, easily beating out the favored Washington Nationals, while the Dodgers went on one of the most historic worst-to-first runs in the history of the sport.

As they prepare to meet in Atlanta on Thursday, let’s highlight the most important players and matchups.

Braves’ X factor: Kris Medlen

Medlen is a very good pitcher who has been handed a nearly impossible task — outduel the great Clayton Kershaw at least once and possibly twice. Medlen wasn’t quite able to repeat the wonderful 2012 run that saw the Braves win all 12 of the starts he made after moving from the bullpen, but he still had a solid 2013 and really turned it on down the stretch, putting up a 49/11 K/BB ratio and a 1.37 ERA over his final nine games.

Kershaw will make it difficult on the Atlanta offense, so Medlen’s ability to keep pace is among the most important stories of the series.

Dodgers’ X factor: Yasiel Puig

Like it would be anybody else. With Matt Kemp out for the season and Andre Ethier slowed by an ankle injury that has kept him out since Sept. 13, the Dodgers’ offense has taken some big hits, and Puig needs to be the man to stem the tide.

Puig slumped to end the season, hitting just .214/.333/.452 in September, but some of that can be chalked up to the inevitable regression of his BABIP from the unbelievable heights it had been during the summer. The good news is that he kept his walk rate at more than 10 percent for a second month in a row and maintained power, so Puig not only has a chance to bounce back with the bat, he has an opportunity to show those who are convinced that his mental errors will cost the team in the playoffs what he has learned during his whirlwind rookie season.

Braves’ key reliever: Alex Wood

Many Atlanta fans were disappointed when it was announced that Wood would be returning to the bullpen for the playoffs, especially with the prospect of the ancient Freddy Garcia perhaps starting Game 4 instead. The rookie lefty with the funky delivery had made 10 late-season starts for Atlanta and was a revelation, striking out 49 in 53 innings. Now, he’ll be in the bullpen, helping to give Fredi Gonzalez an intriguing weapon to help an effective yet relatively little-known cast of relievers — guys such as Luis Avilan, David Carpenter, and Anthony Varvaro — get the game to the sensational Craig Kimbrel.

Dodgers’ key reliever: Brian Wilson

Yes, that Brian Wilson, the ex-Giants closer known nearly as well for his beard and his look-at-me stunts as he is for helping lead San Francisco to the 2010 title. Wilson missed just about all of the Giants’ 2012 run to the World Series after blowing out his elbow in April, and didn’t even make his Dodgers debut this season until Aug. 22. Since the end of 2011, he has just 15 2/3 innings under his belt.

However, Wilson has allowed only one earned run in 18 games as a Dodger, as he works to regain some of his lost velocity and improve his cutter location. And with usual setup men Ronald Belisario (who recently endured a run of 52 batters during which he recorded only one strikeout) and Paco Rodriguez (six walks and three homers in 6 1/3 September innings) struggling at the end of a long season, it might be up to Wilson to be the bridge between a solid rotation and an excellent young closer in Kenley Jansen.

Key matchup: Luis Avilan vs. Adrian Gonzalez

Without Ethier, the Dodgers’ lineup likely will be heavy on righty hitters, with Gonzalez and Carl Crawford the only lefties certain to play. (Skip Schumaker might, but more on him below.) That means that that the Braves will be sure to have a steady diet of lefties ready for Gonzalez in the late innings. Along with Wood, Avilan will get a lot of that work. Avilan allowed just 15 hits and seven walks in 114 plate appearances against lefties this year, good for a paltry .144/.219/.163 line. Gonzalez, it should be noted, doesn’t actually have a terrible split against fellow southpaws, and whether he can take advantage of that skill — or not — will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this series.

Braves’ key bench player: Jordan Schafer

The Braves were supposed to have put together one of the most talented outfields in baseball this year, pairing newcomer brothers B.J. and Justin Upton with returning star Jason Heyward. It didn’t happen; B.J. Upton was a tremendous bust (.184/.268/.289) and Heyward missed time with a broken jaw.

Instead, catcher Evan Gattis has been seeing most of the time in left field, but he’s a enormous defensive liability, as well as having hit just .224/.262/.425 since Aug. 1. That means that Schafer might play a big role in the series, not only to replace Gattis on defense, but to add speed off the bench (22 steals) and exploit some of his own huge platoon splits. Schafer is no star, and he absolutely cannot hit lefties, but he can help out Atlanta in a lot of little ways.

Dodgers’ key bench player: Dee Gordon

Due to the health uncertainty in the outfield, the Dodgers aren’t likely to set their NLDS roster until the last possible moment. But what does seem certain is that their bench will have a lot of guys who offer positional flexibility (Jerry Hairston Jr.), good defense (Nick Punto), and a nice reputation (Michael Young) — i.e., no one all that exciting.

If Gordon sneaks his way on to the roster, he offers Don Mattingly elite-level speed, and while Gordon isn’t a major league quality player either at the plate or in the field, Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton has shown us all just how dangerous speed can be when used correctly. The latest reports on Ethier indicate that if he makes the roster, he’ll be restricted to pinch-hitting only, meaning Gordon should have plenty of opportunity to pinch-run for Ethier and make some noise.

Key stat: Atlanta’s 22.6 percent team strikeout rate

The Braves have a whole lot of swing-and-miss in them, whiffing more than all but two other teams in baseball. Even when you remove the anchor of pitchers batting and just look at regular hitters, they still strike out more than 26 other teams. That’s because in a league with an average of 19 percent, Atlanta has four hitters at 25 percent or higher: Justin Upton, Schafer, B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla, with the latter two over a whopping 30 percent. Pair that with a Dodgers staff that led the National League in strikeout percentage, and you have a recipe for an excessive amount of strike-three calls.

Modest proposal: Start Scott Van Slyke over Skip Schumaker

With Kemp out and Ethier slowed, the Dodgers suddenly find themselves without a center fielder. More than likely, utilityman Schumaker is going to fill the role, with the main argument apparently being “he started in center for the 2011 Cardinals during the World Series and they won a ring,” which ignores the fact that he managed just two singles in the series.

Schumaker offers little power or speed to go with a large platoon split, and most defensive metrics rate him poorly. Instead, Don Mattingly might be better served by living with the adventure that is Puig in center field in order to start Van Slyke — who isn’t much of an outfielder either, but at least showed good power in limited play this year — in right field. Against lefties, such as Mike Minor in Game 2, it’s an absolute must.

Prediction: Dodgers in five

As we head into the playoffs, you’ll surely hear a lot about why each team has what it takes to go all the way and win the World Series. Today, we’re taking the opposite approach. Here’s a look at why each of the five National League playoff teams will not win it all.

Atlanta Braves: Lack of an “ace” and a top-heavy offense

Led by the underrated Mike Minor and boosted by rookie Julio Teheran, Atlanta’s deep rotation gave the club a chance to win every day, not only weathering a lost season from Brandon Beachy and a season-ending injury to Tim Hudson, but improving down the stretch thanks to 11 solid starts from rookie Alex Wood.

Yet while this rotation is built well for the day-in, day-out rigors of a long season, the Braves might find difficulty matching up with the elite-level starters they’ll find in the playoffs — such as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in the National League Division Series. Minor’s 3.39 FIP leads the remaining Braves starters (Wood is headed to the bullpen), yet is just 19th in the National League, behind four different Dodgers starters and two apiece from the Cardinals, Reds and Pirates.

The Braves might also find themselves limited by their top-heavy offense, which has a few star-level performers in the second half (Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons, provided you include his defense) but also some complete anchors (B.J. Upton, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla and Jordan Schafer). Catcher Brian McCann, he of the .296 OBP since the All-Star Game, is now also dealing with a strained adductor muscle. And though it’s not expected to be serious, it’s another issue he doesn’t need.

Cincinnati Reds: Struggle against the best

Reds fans should be terrified about Dusty Baker’s usage — or lack thereof — of closer Aroldis Chapman, as well as his infuriating bunting tendencies, but the biggest reason the Reds won’t go all the way is that they have been unable to beat the best teams this year. Cincinnati fattened up on lousy teams like the Cubs, whom they beat 14 of 19 times, and went 55-30 against teams under .500.

Good teams are supposed to do that, but they’re supposed to be able to beat their own class, too, and the Reds are the only NL playoff team with a losing record against teams above .500 — finishing with a poor 31-39 record against winning opponents.

October baseball is all about beating the best, of course, and the Reds posted losing records against fellow playoff teams the Braves, Pirates and Cardinals. (They beat the Dodgers four out of seven times.) Considering their performance against elite opposition and Baker’s tendency to help his opponents with some of his decisions, Cincinnati might be in for an uphill battle against the best the game has to offer.

St. Louis Cardinals: Closer and injury issues

Having to replace your struggling All-Star closer 97 percent of the way through the season wasn’t exactly the plan Mike Matheny‘s team had hoped to follow. The good news is that even Edward Mujica’s collapse isn’t as fatal as it might be on other teams, because Matheny can turn to talented arms like Trevor Rosenthal (108 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings), Kevin Siegrist (two earned runs in 38 2/3 innings) and perhaps even starter Michael Wacha, but all three are rookies, which always is a concern at the end of a long season.

If relying on such youth in the bullpen isn’t enough to stop this team, the health of a lineup that already has a black hole at shortstop might be. First baseman Allen Craig, one of the top run producers in baseball, hasn’t played since injuring his foot in early September and is unlikely to be available for the NLDS. He’ll be replaced by Matt Adams, who has been dealing with a sore elbow that cost him a few days earlier this month, though he’s still hit well. Outfielder Carlos Beltran has a sore wrist, while catcher (and MVP candidate Yadier Molina) has put up his worst month of the season after returning from a knee injury that cost him half of August.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Skip Schumaker, starting center fielder

With the unexpected news following Sunday’s season finale that Matt Kemp’s injured ankle would sideline him for the postseason, the Dodgers find themselves with a huge hole in center field. It’s true that Kemp wasn’t around for most of the team’s record-setting summer run anyway, but Andre Ethier was — and Ethier hasn’t started since Sept. 12 with a sore ankle of his own, making his availability for the NLDS a very uncertain proposition.

Don Mattingly indicated he would prefer to keep Yasiel Puig in right field, so if Ethier can’t go, that leaves the team stuck with bench player Skip Schumaker as the starter. Schumaker played just 12 complete games in center this year and was rated as below average by most defensive measures. At the plate, he’s a subpar hitter who had just four steals and homers combined, and has a large enough career platoon split that he’s nearly an instant out against lefties.

The Dodgers should also worry that usual setup men Paco Rodriguez and Ronald Belisario have struggled over the past few weeks ahead of elite closer Kenley Jansen, but that’s a secondary concern. Going from Kemp and Ethier to Schumaker is a huge blow that could cost them in October.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Facing right-handed pitching

The Pirates are a team that wins with pitching, defense and MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen. That’s been enough to overcome what is generally an average offense — their .311 wOBA was just 18th in baseball, between the noncontending Brewers and Giants. The good news is that no team in the National League feasted on lefties the way Pittsburgh has, topping all others with a 108 wRC+ against southpaws, including having five different Pirates who had at least 40 plate appearances put up a wRC+ mark of at least 176 against lefties.

Unfortunately, the Pirates were merely middle-of-the-pack against righties, and are last among all NL playoff teams; McCutchen was the only one who managed to get to even 125 in wRC+ against righties. Other than McCutchen, their best hitters against righty pitching (third baseman Pedro Alvarez and second baseman Neil Walker) are all but unplayable against lefty pitching, creating matchup problems against lefty specialists in the late innings.

The lesser production against righties is a concern considering that even if the Pirates can get past Cincinnati righty Johnny Cueto in the wild-card game, they’ll end up facing a St. Louis team that will likely have an all-righty starting rotation in the NLDS.

The regular season was supposed to be over today, but thanks to the Rangers and Rays, there are still six American League teams standing. Each of the six has a path to a November parade. Each team has hope, and the beauty of the postseason is that anyone who got here has a real chance to win.

However, almost all of them will fail. Despite their strength, there can only be one champion. Today, with hoping rising in different cities, we look at the achilles heel for each team and note that, if they fail, this significant flaw may very well be the reason why.

Texas: Weak left-handed bats

What follows is a complete list of Rangers hitters who posted a wRC+ greater than 100 — meaning that they performed above the league average — against right-handed pitching this year:

Adrian Beltre, 134
Geovany Soto, 126
Nelson Cruz, 122

That’s it. That’s the whole list. It’s two right-handed hitters and the team’s backup catcher. Soto isn’t likely to play much against RHPs in the postseason, and his numbers were basically a fluke anyway, so the Rangers can essentially run out two above average hitters against righties, and that’s only if they lean heavily on a guy who spent the last two months sitting on the sidelines serving a PED suspension.

Their best left-handed hitter against righties this year? Leonys Martin, who posted a wRC+ of exactly 100 against RHPs. He’s followed by mediocrities like Mitch Moreland, A.J. Pierzynski, and David Murphy. Those are not hitters that are going to scare anyone into taking out their right-handed specialist relievers, so any team with a decent bullpen of power right-handers is going to be able to go right after the Rangers without much fear.

Given the expanded bullpen options each team has in October, that’s a real problem, and it’s one that could end up sending the Rangers home early.

Tampa Bay: The rotation isn’t actually very good.

The Rays have been a pitching development factory for years, constantly churning out quality young arms and providing enviable depth. Every year, it seems, the team is bursting at the seems with too many good starting pitchers. This year, though, their rotation has actually been a bit of a problem.

The Rays starters posted a 3.82 ERA this year, and after you adjust for league and park effects, that rates as almost exactly average among the 30 big league teams. By FIP, they’ve been even a little worse than that, and their ERA is propped up slightly by the fact that their defense helps save some runs from scoring.

They still have David Price, and Alex Cobb has emerged as a real weapon, but it gets a bit dicey after that. Matt Moore’s got a shiny ERA but he still walks everyone and his peripherals suggest not to expect a similar performance in the postseason. Jeremy Hellickson is the opposite, getting terrible results from his mediocre BB/K/HR numbers after a few years of being a guy who outperformed his FIP. Chris Archer might be the best bet of the trio, but even he’s more decent than good. Once the Rays get past Price and Cobb, things are going to start tilting in their opponent’s favor very quickly.

Cleveland: Chris Perez.

There isn’t a team still playing that should have less confidence in their closer than the Indians. Perez has never been an elite relief ace, always skating by racking up white-knuckle saves and looking like he was on the brink of disaster at any given moment. After a solid enough first half, the wheels have come off the last few months.

Since the All-Star break, opponents are hitting .287/.355/.595(!) against Perez, as he’s allowed a disastrous seven home runs in just 27 innings of pitching. For a pitcher who basically has made his name on inducing weak contact — his walk and strikeout rates have always just been okay — the recent string of dingers has brought anxiety to any ninth inning lead. Keeping hitters from hitting the ball hard has really been Perez’s primary strength, and if he’s not doing that, then he’s not the guy you want protecting a lead in October.

The good news for the Indians is that home run rate is particularly fickle, and this is the kind of problem that could magically disappear. But pretty much every other team left has a dominating shut down ace at the end of their bullpen, and the Indians have a guy who they hope won’t keep pitching as badly as he has for the last few months.

Oakland: Bartolo Colon’s magic act can’t last forever.

Bartolo Colon, at age 40, finished second in the American League in ERA. The only other time in his career he posted an ERA under 3.00 was in 2002, back when he threw in the mid-90s and could reach 100 at times. Now, he throws 89 mph fastballs on nearly every pitch, and while the results he got from that plan were incredible, there’s just no way this can keep going on forever.

Specifically, Colon can’t keep stranding runners like he has. Here are opponents performance against him, split out by the position of the baserunners:

Bases empty: .276/.300/.369
Men On: .238/.275/.370
RISP: .185/.217/.309

With no one on, Colon was good but not spectacular. With men on base, he was very good. With men in scoring position, he was Clayton Kershaw. Except, you know, he’s not Clayton Kershaw. The primary driver of the difference in performance in those situations is batting average on balls in play, which is often a better measure of defense and luck than pitching skill. Colon’s BABIPs by those same three states: .314, .263, and .212.

Colon is not going to keep holding good hitters to a .212 BABIP with men in scoring position. That’s just not a sustainable number, or anything even close to it. Some of those balls in play are going to start finding holes, and when they do, his ERA is going to spike. Colon isn’t a bad pitcher, per se, but he’s not a 2.65 ERA ace either. His performance in the regular season is one of the main reasons the A’s won their division, but they should not count on his regular season success carrying over into October.

Detroit: Miguel Cabrera’s body.

Miguel Cabrera, when healthy, is the best hitter on the planet. Miguel Cabrera hasn’t been healthy for several weeks now. Cabrera’s been dealing with abdominal soreness for most of September, and more recently, his knees have been acting up. And he doesn’t look like he’s getting better.

Cabrera, despite playing through the pain most days, managed just two extra base hits in September, racking up one double and one home run. He slugged .333 for the month. Even when he hits the ball hard, he doesn’t seem to have enough speed to get to second unless the ball gets over the wall. He’s been reduced to a singles-and-walks guy, and that’s not the hitter that the Tigers need him to be in the playoffs.

Perhaps adrenaline will kick in, or Cabrera’s just been taking it easy with his team’s playoff chances all but assured. Maybe he’s going to get a second wind and remember how to pull an inside fastball. Lately, though, Miguel Cabrera has just looked, well, broken. He’s a big man, and bodies like his don’t tend to last forever.

The Tigers need to hope that Cabrera’s body is more bruised than broken, and that their franchise player can get back to being the dominant offensive force he can be when he’s healthy. Because without that guy in the middle of their line-up, they probably aren’t going very far.

Boston: Clay Buchholz is not actually back to 100%.

Here are Clay Buchholz’s 2013 strikeout rates, by month:

April: 27%
May: 25%
June: 18%
July/August: On DL
September: 17%

Before Buchholz got hurt, he was beastly, striking out one-fourth of the batters he faced and posting a 2.46 FIP. In his four September starts since coming off the DL, he struck out one-sixth of the batters he faced and posted a 3.88 FIP. His 1.88 ERA in those four starts since returning might make it seem like he didn’t miss a beat while spending a couple of months on the shelf, but he hasn’t pitched like the same guy who was destroying hitters in the first couple of months of the year.

The stuff backs up the reasons for concern. At his peak in May, Buchholz’s fastball was averaging 93-94; in his last start, he averaged 90 and topped out around 92. From the results, it looks like everything is just fine, but Buchholz is not throwing the same way he was early in the year.

Without Buchholz as an ace, the Red Sox rotation looks a little shaky. And there are real reasons to think that, given what we’ve seen of Buchholz recently, he’s not likely to pitch like an ace in the playoffs.

The 2013 season will end for 20 of the 30 big league teams on Sunday, and a majority of those teams have been out of the playoff race for quite some time. For rebuilding clubs or teams whose seasons didn’t go as they planned, the last few months of the year have been about playing for pride. Managers will motivate their players to continue working hard by talking about ending the season on a high note, so that when everyone reports to spring training the following year, they feel good about how they finished strong the year before.

This year, there are three teams who are going to miss the playoffs but are certainly ending on a high note; the Angels, Royals, and Nationals. Each one came into the season with postseason aspirations but have fallen short of the mark due to a poor first half performance. Since the trade deadline, though, all three have taken off. Here are their records through the first four months of the season, and then their records down the stretch.

If these teams had played all season like they have over the last two months, the Nationals would have won the NL East and the Royals and Angels would be in serious wild card contention. For the final 60 games of the season, these teams have played like they belong in the postseason. But will it help them in 2014?

Recent history says no. Below are the teams that finished strong in each of the last three seasons after poor starts that kept them from playoff contention, only now, we’re also going to list their record in the following year.

Of the six teams that made dramatic improvements in the final two months of the season, five of them finished below .500 the next year. None of the six made the playoffs in the year following their strong push to the end the season. In fact, their overall average winning percentage in the following season (.447) was much closer to their early season struggles (.417) than their late season surge (.587).

Logically, we shouldn’t be that surprised by these results, given that the time period of poor play is twice as large as the period of time in which the teams played well. If a Major League club struggles for four months and then succeeds for two months, we should still place a larger emphasis on the four months because the sample is twice as large. As humans, we tend to place a very strong emphasis on recent performance, but the evidence does not suggest that we should abandon what we learned early in the year simply because these teams made a good impression to finish the year.

The Angels played poorly for four months because their pitching was atrocious and their two high paid sluggers were severe disappointments. Those problems have not just magically disappeared. Same for the Royals and their inability to score runs. The Nationals are probably the most likely of the three to contend next year without major improvements, but even they should not be simply counting on their end of season run as a sign of things to come. All of these teams need to improve in the off-season, and should not be tricked into thinking that 2014 will pick up where 2013 left off.

Baseball just doesn’t work that way. Earl Weaver had it right when he said that momentum was the next day’s starting pitcher. A team’s ability to play well is minimally, if at all, impacted by their results the day before. By the time an entire winter has passed, and the team reconvenes for spring training, the impact of how a team finished the prior year is completely non-existent, at least in terms of predicting wins and losses for the next season.

It’s better to play well down the stretch than to fall apart entirely, but don’t read too much into late season performances. You are almost always better off looking at a team or players entire season rather than slicing it into arbitrarily smaller sections in order to spot a trend. All the games count, not just the most recent ones.

There are 162 games in a major league season, spread out over six months, and the mantra you hear from managers and players is almost always the same: Take it one game at a time.

That’s almost always good advice, serving to shepherd an ever-changing group of 25 players through the highs and lows of a long season, but in certain situations that kind of calming effect is no longer appropriate. With more than 98 percent of the season in the books, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates find themselves in exactly that position, entering a series that’s more than just about adding to the season-long win total — it’s a face-to-face battle to see who hosts the one-game NL wild-card matchup between the same two teams on Tuesday.

(The Pirates are technically still alive for the NL Central division title as well, which may give them added motivation, but it’s beyond unlikely; not only would Pittsburgh have to sweep the Reds in Cincinnati, but St. Louis would have to drop three games at home to the last-place Cubs. Don’t hold your breath on that.)

Even though the Pirates have a one-game edge, the Reds would own the tiebreaker if they win two of three this weekend in Cincinnati. So whichever team wins the series gets to host the wild-card game on Tuesday. And while both teams would obviously love to host, the Reds have a bit more to gain playing on their own turf.

Road-fearing hurlers

On the surface, these are two very evenly-matched teams. Both squads have 97 wRC+, and in terms of run prevention, nearly-identical ERAs (3.29 to 3.35 in favor of the Bucs). Though the Reds won four of the previous seven games between the two in Cincinnati this year, each side scored 21 runs apiece; in Pittsburgh, the Pirates went 5-4, despite being outscored by eight runs. (Two of the losses were via shutout.)

That makes any added edge either side can pick up crucial, and both likely wild-card starters — expected to be resurgent lefty Francisco Lirianofor Pittsburgh and Cincinnati ace Mat Latos — would benefit from games at home, because each have pitched much better in the home whites this year.

In two previous starts this year at Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, Liriano allowed a line of .250/.348/.500 and three home runs — one more homer than he gave up in 11 starts at home, where he allowed just a puny line of .174/.249/.225. Liriano has completely dominated left-handed hitters this year (.321 OPS against), which bodes well against the Reds’ lefty-heavy lineup, but his problems at Great American, a more hitter-friendly park than PNC, can’t be ignored.

Latos made three starts at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, and not only was it the only visiting park that he allowed more than a single home run in, his total of four allowed is half what it was at home, where he started 14 times.

The Aroldis factor

Reds fans may also hope for a home game beyond the obvious reasons because it may allow for a more effective usage of elite closer Aroldis Chapman. Though this clearly falls into a larger “old school-vs-new school” debate — and Reds manager Dusty Baker is firmly old-school — a source of frustration for many Cincinnati supporters this year has been Baker’s reluctance to use Chapman in non-save situations on the road, even allowing his team to lose with inferior pitchers on the mound while Chapman watches from the bullpen.

To cherry-pick just one example of many that directly impacted this race, the Reds lost 5-4 in Pittsburgh in 11 innings on June 2 without Chapman — who had pitched only once in the previous week — entering the game. Instead, Alfredo Simon, an effective reliever who is nonetheless far from Chapman’s level, was pushed to a third inning of relief and eventually allowed the winning run as Chapman waited for the “save situation” that never came.

Baker manages much differently at home in the ninth and extra innings, when there is no longer an opportunity for a save, like he did on Wednesday by using Chapman in the ninth with the Reds down 1-0 to the Mets. Whether by coincidence or not, Chapman performs much better at home both in 2013 (.169 wOBA against as opposed to .371 wOBA on the road) and over his career (.214 wOBA at home, .270 wOBA on the road), which combined with Baker’s tendencies, makes the Reds closer much more dangerous in Cincinnati. Of all the reasons why the Reds need the game at home, this one is the most crucial.

Pirate pandemonium

Off the field, there’s a slightly different approach to this series in Pittsburgh than there is in Cincinnati, where the Reds have hosted playoff games twice in the last four seasons. After waiting more than two decades for the next good Pirates team, Pittsburgh fans have already seen the end of the 2013 home regular season schedule, which wrapped up on Sunday when the Pirates lost to these same Reds 11-3.

It would be a cruel taunt if the Pirates finally broke that streak to make it back to the playoffs and found the reward was merely to extend the season-ending three-game trip to Cincinnati into four, without even so much as a home playoff game for the long-suffering fans who’d been patient for so long. So whatever stock you want to put in soft factors such as extra motivation from the crowd, you’d have to think that Pittsburgh’s fan would bring the noise a little bit more than Cincinnati’s.

Will simply gaining the home field for the wild-card game guarantee a victory? Of course not; the home team won about 54 percent of the time across MLB this year, and 54 percent is a far cry from 100. But for two teams that are so evenly matched, every little edge — Liriano’s larger home-road split, the Pittsburgh fans, Baker’s usage of Chapman — can have an enormous impact in a single game. That’s what makes this weekend’s series so important, both teams could use home-field advantage, and the Reds could use it a little bit more.

Last week, we looked at the teams that were getting the most production from their young players, noting that the Atlanta Braves are blowing away the field in contributions from players under the age of 25. Today, we’re going to do the reverse, looking at teams that are relying heavily on older players, and might have to start making plans for replacements in the near future.

These teams have gotten the most production out of players in their age-32 season, which means that they were 32 or order on July 1st. For reference, all listed player ages are as of that date, so players who turned 32 after July 1st are not counted in these groupings.

1. Boston Red Sox, +21 WAR

The Red Sox rebirth has been well chronicled, as they remade their team last off-season through a series of smart free agent signings. However, the plan also called for the team to lean heavily on older players, and no team in baseball has gotten as much production from guys headed towards the end of their careers as the boys in beantown.

Koji Uehara is 38. David Ortiz is 37. Ryan Dempster is 36. John Lackey is 34. Shane Victorino and Jake Peavy are 32. There is a significant part of the team’s roster that shouldn’t be counted on for long term production, and with players on the wrong side of 30, the end can occasionally come quickly. While Ortiz is unlikely to forget how to hit any time soon and Uehara looks better than he ever has, the team won’t be able to keep getting this level of production from these guys forever. Eventually, Father Time will catch up.

Of course, part of the reason the Red Sox were willing to acquire so many long-in-the-tooth veterans is that they have spent the past few years stockpiling young talent, so help is on the way. With top prospect Xander Bogaerts and young arms like Brandon Workman already contributing to the big league team, the Sox future seems to be in pretty good hands. But make no mistake, there is a changing of the guard coming. The Red Sox of a few years from now likely won’t look anything like the team that is headed for the postseason now.

2. New York Yankees, +14 WAR

While the Yankees haven’t received the same level of production from older players as Boston has, this is probably the scariest number for any team, because the Yankees don’t have a Xander Bogaerts waiting in the wings. In fact, the +14 WAR they’ve gotten from older players represents more than half of their total team WAR on the year, so they’re actually getting carried by end-of-career players like Hiroki Kuroda and Mariano Rivera.

The changing of the guard that is going to happen in Boston is already happening in New York, but unfortunately for the Yankees, there doesn’t appear to be a new guard ready to replace the old ones. New York is going to have to keep pushing for production from the younger part of the old guy pool, hoping for more value next year from guys like CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira.

Given the dearth of under-25 production, the Yankees probably need something closer to +20 to +25 WAR from their older core in order to contend next year. The Red Sox managed to pull it off this year, but the fact that no other team in baseball is even close to getting that kind of production from aging players probably tells you all you need to know about the likelihood of repeating that trick. The Yankees are still the Yankees, and they still have a lot of money, but this roster has some serious problems.

3. Texas Rangers, +13 WAR

You might not think of the Rangers as an old team, since they’ve been infusing young players like Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Elvis Andrus, and Leonys Martin into their core for the last few years. And they still have high hopes for Jurickson Profar, who spent a good chunk of the year in the big leagues at age 20. However, once you get past those few core players, it becomes pretty clear that the Rangers have been more reliant on aging players than you might first think.

Adrian Beltre is 34, and the team’s best player. His defense is showing some signs of erosion after 15 years of elite performance, and it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to keep up this level of performance forever. Joe Nathan, at age 38, had one of the best seasons of his career. A.J. Pierzynski and Nelson Cruz were both useful role players who are set for free agency, and Cruz’s absence was offset by the acquisition of the 32 year old Alex Rios.

The rotation is young, and Profar could be a big boost if they can find a spot for him, but this team is sneaky old, and is going to have to start replacing some productive players in the not too distant future.

4. Philadelphia Phillies, +11 WAR

Not a big surprise to see the Phillies here, as they have one of baseball’s oldest rosters after years of pushing for World Series titles. They’ve collected a large number of veterans over the years, many of them highly compensated, and that group simply wasn’t able to produce enough to offset the lack of young talent that has been flowing into the organization.

The Phillies still have some quality players, like Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and kept star second baseman Chase Utley in the organization with a mid-season contract extension, but the Phillies veteran core is no longer good enough to carry the team to the postseason. This team needs some productive young players, and soon.

5. Toronto Blue Jays, +8 WAR

Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, and Mark Buehrle aren’t spring chickens any more, which is one of the reasons the Blue Jays didn’t trade away veterans for prospects at the trade deadline. While they fell flat in 2013, there are still pieces in place that make a 2014 run a real possibility, and they don’t have lot of time to waste while Bautista is still an impact hitter.

Yu Darvish “doesn’t fight,” wrote one Dallas-area media member earlier this week as the painful September slide of the Texas Rangers continued. “He’s crumbling under the pressure” and “not mentally tough,” added multiple fans commenting on the site of the Dallas Morning News.

It’s not particularly difficult to understand why Rangers fans are so agitated right now, because for the second season in a row, their team is collapsing down the stretch and ceding control of a division they once dominated to the rival Oakland Athletics. After consecutive World Series defeats in 2010 and 2011, the 2012 Rangers squandered a season-long run in first place by succumbing to a sweep in Oakland in the final series of the season.

This year, they spent 95 days atop the West and were within a half-game of first as recently as Sept. 6, but after dropping nine of 12 — including another sweep at the hands of Oakland — Ron Washington’s team now finds itself 6 1/2 games behind the Athletics and on the verge of being knocked out of a playoff spot entirely.

There’s no shortage of places to put that blame, but the bulk of the frustration seems to be landing on Darvish, mainly because the Texas ace hasn’t pitched the Rangers to a win in any of his past six starts dating back to early August — including two painful losses against Oakland. So Darvish, as the narrative goes, doesn’t have “the will to win” and isn’t living up to his ace billing, right? Well, not quite.

No support

When Darvish lost to Oakland last Saturday, he struck out 10 and walked one in seven one-run innings, yet the Texas bats couldn’t muster anything against Bartolo Colon, and the Rangers lost 1-0. When Darvish lost to phenom Gerrit Cole and the Pirates on Sept. 9, he also threw seven one-run innings before leaving with a cramp, but the Texas offense again disappeared in a 1-0 loss. The losses made Darvish the first pitcher since Orel Hershiser in 1989 — and only the fourth in the past century — to lose by a 1-0 margin four times in a single season.

In 11 starts since the All-Star break, Darvish has allowed more than three earned runs only once, while holding opponents to two runs or fewer seven times. In the second half, he ranks fourth in the AL in ERA, fifth in WAR, eighth in FIP, first in strikeout percentage and first in batting average against. Those half-season rankings are similar to what he has for the full season, and only the presence of Max Scherzer and his 19-3 record is going to prevent Darvish from getting the recognition he deserves in the AL Cy Young balloting.

As Darvish heads into Thursday night’s start against Matt Moore and the Rays, he’s actually on pace to have a historically significant season. Over the past century, his current 11.9 strikeouts per nine mark has been topped by only three qualified starters — Randy Johnson, who did so six times, and once apiece by Pedro Martinez and Kerry Wood. There’s more to life than strikeouts, of course, but it’s difficult to look at the pitcher who is missing bats and not allowing runs and think that he’s your main problem here.

The real culprits

Rather than Darvish, Texas fans would do well to focus their contempt on Derek Holland, who just lasted a combined 7 2/3 innings in two September starts against Oakland, allowing 10 runs (nine earned). Or perhaps aim their vitriol toward failed midseason trade acquisition Matt Garza, who has allowed four or more earned runs in seven of his past nine starts — including six earned runs in a loss to Tampa Bay, their main wild-card competition, Monday night.

They might especially look at an offense that has scored just 55 runs in September, which is tied for the third fewest in baseball with the dreadful White Sox and Mariners. Texas has been struggling to support Darvish or any of its starters thanks to slumps by Adrian Beltre(.238/.304/.254), Ian Kinsler (.222/.253/.333, plus two outs on the bases Monday night) and Mitch Moreland (.154/.283/.410), and also because of the PED suspension to Nelson Cruz that deprived them of one of their top hitters.

Other than shortstop Elvis Andrus and outfielder Alex Rios, who came over from the White Sox in July, not a single regular Texas hitter is hitting at even a league-average rate this month. In the past seven games — all losses — they had played entering Tuesday, the Rangers never even held a lead. That’s not a typo — in seven full games, at no point did the Rangers have more runs than their opponent at any point.

It goes without saying that Darvish had nothing to do with most of those games, because this has been a team effort. Speaking after the most recent Oakland loss, the frustration from Darvish was evident, as he told reporters, “I can’t control it. I can’t do anything about it,” and “as a pitcher, you can’t control how many runs are scored. Am I going to go into the lineup and help the lineup? I can’t.”

Perhaps that’s a level of honesty that most aren’t comfortable with, because that borders dangerously close to the line of throwing your offense under the bus rather than simply spouting the company line that “we all need to do better as a team.” Maybe that’s why Darvish is taking the brunt of the blowback for this, or maybe it’s just mostly coming from those who still actually put importance in pitcher won-loss record despite all evidence to the contrary. Still, “crumbling under the pressure?” Far from it.