Don’t Call Them Tiers: Fantasy Talent Distribution

The data in this post is based on the evaluation system explained and updated some time ago. Players are grouped into their primary position from 2014, and stats are based on traditional 5×5 scoring.

Every year the fantasy world engages in the same old arguments: “Is Position X deep? Is it shallow? Why is the sky blue?” I think the third question has been answered sufficiently enough over the course of human history, but the first two queries are in need of annual research and updates.

The easiest way to evaluate positional strength is to present numbers that have not been adjusted in any way for scarcity and roster size. Below you’ll find a table outlining the number of players at each position who put up above fantasy league average raw stats last year, as well as the same number based on 2015 Steamer projections.

It should come as no surprise that above-average catchers are at a premium, but a decline from four players to two is a bit alarming, even if playing time and durability are issues at the position.

The biggest move, though, is the shift from relievers. It should be no surprise that reliever projections are less optimistic than their final production may dictate, due to the variability at the position in both pitching results and save totals. It would stand to reason that more than 25 relievers will end up being above-average contributors. First base picks up a lot of the slack, projecting to add ten players as compared to last season, while third base also shows promise.

Overall, in 12-team leagues without a corner infield or middle infield slot, owners will be able to wait a bit on first base – as usual – third base, outfield, and starting pitcher. The middle infield is a problem – again, as usual – which can be magnified in leagues that utilize a middle infielder. In leagues with two starting catchers, the top couple guys become immensely valuable, with the top dog (Buster Posey) potentially sliding up into the first round.

Intra-positional Talent Distribution

After getting a macro picture of positional strength, we can move down to the micro level and look at the distribution of talent throughout each position group. A great way to look at distribution inside a single position is by creating tiers.

Since there’s no real way to set a universal definition for tiers, one easy method of evaluation is to look at a pretty picture. Below you’ll find a graph of all players whose raw production would make them an average or better player in 2015, according to Steamer.

This is a bit broad, of course, and we’ll get to a full breakdown in a moment, but a couple things immediately stand out:

1.There is a large cluster of infielders who grade out at about average, but outside of the hot corner, there’s just a few top guys who stand above that group.

2.There is a huge gap between the 10th and 11th starting pitcher.

More specifically, below you’ll find a pair of charts breaking each position into tiers. This process was done manually by yours truly, but is based on the numbers and groupings represented in the above graph. Please note that tier levels do not indicate the same level of talent: for example, the second tier of catchers is worth less than the second tier of first baseman. Each position should be treated independently.