It’s Not All about Justin Morneau

After Justin Morneau went down on July 7, the Minnesota Twins immediately dropped four of five games. They were 1½ games back in the AL Central on that date and were struggling against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers.

More than a month later, things have changed. The Twins have surged of late — even taking it to the White Sox in a head-to-head series — and now have an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs.

How will the “dog days” play out for the Twins? Let’s take a look.

Scoring runs consistently without Morneau had seemed nearly impossible just two months ago. The Canadian first baseman has put up 5.2 WAR in just 81 games in 2010 thanks to a fantastic .447 wOBA, the best of any hitter in baseball. Without Morneau in the lineup, a big issue was protection: Wouldn’t the other hitters falter if pitchers knew the first baseman wasn’t there?

Actually, the biggest contributor to the Twins’ lineup in Morneau’s absence has been the guy who most thought would suffer greatest: Joe Mauer. The catcher, who got off to a slow start relative to his 2009 MVP season, hit .344/.392/.570 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in July, good for a .411 wOBA. He didn’t let up in August and has even outperformed his July pace; he’s hitting .422/.530/.594 for the month, numbers that make even his 2009 campaign look mundane in comparison. Although he doesn’t have the same protection, he’s hitting for more power than when Morneau was intimidating the pitcher from the on-deck circle. Mauer’s success in the Morneau’s absence should further dent the idea of lineup protection. Many studies have shown the phenomenon does not exist, and the anecdotal evidence here suggests the same.

We can’t overlook the production of Jim Thome, either. The slugger ravaged the AL Central while with the Indians early in his career and the White Sox as recently as last season, and he has been flat-out incredible for the Twins as of late. The designated hitter is batting a Ruthian .333/.426/.769 (.490 wOBA) in August with a homer/fly-ball rate of 40 percent.

Also picking up the slack is shortstop J.J. Hardy. Coming into 2010, Hardy really could have used a bounce-back season. After putting up WARs of 4.4 and 4.9, respectively, in 2007 and 2008, Hardy struggled with a measly 1.4 WAR in 2009 and was promptly traded from the Brewers to the Twins. After starting this season looking no different than last year, Hardy has finally turned it up during the past two months. The shortstop hit .351/.377/.486 in 21 July games and for August has a respectable .321 wOBA.

Orlando Hudson has been another major part of the team’s offensive success during the past month. Although he hit a rather pedestrian .276/.353/.368 in July, the smooth-handed switch-hitter has hit .298/.382/.532 in August.

Although some may look to give outfielder Delmon Young the lion’s share of the credit for the Twins’ offensive success, even mentioning him as a possible MVP candidate, the reality is that he hasn’t been all that great since Morneau went down and the Twins’ offense took off. His .319/.345/.500 line isn’t bad, but he hasn’t been the one driving this offense forward. For example, rookie third baseman Danny Valencia has been just about as productive. Don’t buy into the Young-for-MVP hype; it’s been a total team effort, with several other players taking a more prominent role in the second-half surge.

Minnesota’s offensive performance also serves as a reminder not to overstate the importance of any one player; no one had played better in the first half than the Twins’ first baseman, yet removing him from the lineup has not affected them in the slightest. You’ll hear frequent clichés about one player carrying a team down the stretch, but nobody can do much on his own, and no team will have its season decided by the influence of just one man.