Now Is The Time To Trade Johnny Cueto

Back in February in this space, I wrote that the Cincinnati Reds needed to trade Homer Bailey for offensive help sooner rather than later. The reasoning behind that was simple — in 2013, the Reds had finished a middle-of-the-pack 15th in team wRC+, and their disappointing offseason had consisted of watching the very productive Shin-Soo Choo depart while importing only mediocre backups Skip Schumaker and Brayan Pena.

Instead, the Reds signed Bailey to a long-term contract and attempted to get by with what they had, ultimately winning fewer games than they had since 2008. Though it didn’t happen in exactly the way we might have expected — stars Jay Bruce and Joey Votto each had poor years, whileTodd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco carried the load — the offense was indeed a huge anchor, sinking to an 83 wRC+ that wasn’t just the second-worst in Major League Baseball, it was very nearly the worst in the last 50 seasons of Cincinnati baseball.

Nine months later, the Reds are again in a similar position. This team, as constructed, doesn’t look like a playoff contender. There are plenty of holes in the lineup and limited dollars to fix that. Once again, the most appealing Cincinnati trade chip is a top pitcher entering the final year of his contract. This time, the Reds can’t make the same mistake and stand pat. It’s time to trade Johnny Cueto.

It’s Cueto’s name that appears there because he’s the big star who would bring the most in return, but really this could apply to Mat LatosMike Leake or Alfredo Simon, as well, because they’re all in their final years, and the Reds won’t be able to sign them all. (You could make a great argument to shop Aroldis Chapman, too, but that’s another conversation entirely.)

The point is, just like it wasn’t that hard to see that the 2014 Reds weren’t built to win, it’s easy to see the 2015 squad isn’t in much better shape. Over at FanGraphs, a combination of author-curated depth charts and Steamer projections allows us to get an early look at 2015 WAR expectations, and while you can quibble around the edges of WAR, when it’s saying the Nationals look like the best team and the Phillies the worst, you know it’s on the right track.

At the moment, the Reds are ranked as the 26th-best team in baseball. The other teams in that range — the Chicago Cubs, the Chicago White Sox, the Houston Astros, etc. — are all in the midst of rebuilding phases. The Philadelphia Phillies are about to start one that’s at least two years overdue. The Reds, however, still are publicly trying to win with the core they have now, perhaps in some small part due to the fact that they’re hosting the All-Star Game this year. What makes that more difficult is something that the WAR rankings can’t take into account — the fact that an NL Central full of St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates and about-to-be-competitive Cubs represents one of the more difficult challenges in the game.

Also working against Cincinnati is that many of its issues are the same as last year, or in some cases, worse. Second baseman Brandon Phillips still is a solid defender, but he’s also been declining pretty steadily since 2011 — his wRC+ has dropped from 122 to 101 to 91 to 88 — and at 33, he has lost most of his power and offensive value. Shortstop Zack Cozart is a well-regarded fielder who was also the worst regular hitter in baseball last season. In left, a combination of players led by Ryan Ludwick collectively gave the team below-replacement play, ranking No. 28 in the game.

It didn’t help that Billy Hamilton was the second-worst hitter in baseball in the second half or that Votto was injured or that Bruce completely fell apart, and it’s fair to expect that at least one of those three players is going to give a lot more in 2015. But to expect production from all three, and for Frazier and Mesoraco to sustain their nice years, and for Phillips to stem the steady tide of aging, well, it’s just not realistic, to say nothing of the left field hole and the fact that Cozart will never be an acceptable big league hitter.

Ideally, the Reds would just hang on to Cueto and their other starters, then import some external help via free agency. But this year’s crop of bats either don’t fit with the Reds positionally — Pablo SandovalChase HeadleyRussell MartinAdam LaRoche et al — or live in a financial stratosphere far above where Cincinnati can venture, likeHanley Ramirez. With five players set to make at least $10 million, plus Leake, Latos and Chapman all expected to get more than $8 million in arbitration, the payroll already is near or above what it was in 2014, and because Phillips reached 10/5 rights late in the season, they’re stuck with the remaining three seasons and $39 million of his age 34-36 decline years. That being the case, the Reds have most often been linked to low-impact outfielders such as Norichika Aoki or Michael Morse, neither of whom will turn the tables alone.

Either might be better than Ludwick and friends, but only by a limited amount. That’s just treading water, and it doesn’t do much to advance the team’s interests either now or in the future. If standing still doesn’t help you, and upgrading via free agency isn’t an option, then the only alternative is to make a trade.

Let’s say the Reds decided now was the time to trade Cueto, reasonably feeling that his $10 million 2015 salary and top-2 Cy Young finish makes him a very appealing alternative to spending well over $100 million on free agents such as Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. What could they hope to get in return?

It’s something of a pitching-heavy market, but hopeful contenders such as the Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics and others could all use help in the rotation — and, by trading now rather than in July, the Reds can market Cueto as “a full season and a qualifying offer draft pick” rather than “12 starts or so and no pick” if they wait. That he’s got only a year remaining necessarily limits his value — this isn’t going to be Addison Russell for a combined two years of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel — but a little creativity could make it work.

Tossing out specific names in trade proposals like this is often folly, but it ultimately depends on how the Reds approach their offseason. If they want immediate help, certainly teams like the Dodgers (Carl Crawford, assuming the Dodgers pay down an overwhelming amount of the $62.25 million still due him, has been surprisingly good in his two years there, with a 117 wRC+) and the Red Sox (anyone but Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo) have an excess in the outfield, prospects to include along with the outfielder and holes in the rotation. Others could pay entirely in prospects. Yet another option would be to insist that an interested party takes a guaranteed contract off their hands to increase flexibility. It all depends on what the Reds want to do.

Whichever path the Reds choose, there’s really only one wrong answer for this winter, and that’s to stay the course, which is what doomed Philadelphia. This team isn’t good enough to get out of the NL Central as is. They don’t have the dollars to buy more talent. They need to trade from a strength, and with young pitchers Tony Cingrani, Robert StephensonDavid Holmberg, Michael Lorenzen and Raciel Iglesias either ready now or nearly so, they have the depth to handle it. Now is the time.





Mike Petriello used to write here, and now he does not. Find him at @mike_petriello or MLB.com.

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