Whenever you read about the Pittsburgh Pirates these days, you hear about 2013 being “the end”. With their win over Texas on Monday, it was officially the the end of more than two decades of losing baseball, dating back to the Barry Bonds / Doug Drabek Pirates of 1992. Barring a massive collapse over the next two weeks, it’s soon going to also be the end of a playoff drought going back to that same season, the one that ended on Sid Bream’s infamous slide home.

As the NL Central race heats up, the Pirates have been treading water, having lost 16 of 30 games over the last month of play — though after being swept by St. Louis, they just finished off a sweep in Texas on Wednesday. The magical season, the one that has seen them spend 52 days in first place to date, might not even end with a single home playoff game in front of the Pittsburgh fans, should they be unable to hold off the Reds and Cardinals and end up with the second wild card spot. (The Pirates and Reds face off six times in the final nine games of the season, the closest we’re likely to get to must-watch baseball in the National League this year.) Wouldn’t that end up being the most Pirates way possible to end the streak?

Yet for all of the discussion about what the Pirates are in position to end, the state of this franchise is about far more than the ghosts they’re about to excise. 2013 isn’t the end. It’s merely the beginning, because this organization is being built for the long haul, not just to poke above .500 for one year before falling back off. (Looking at you, 2003 Royals and 2009 Mariners.)

The story starts, as it should, with the team’s best player. 26-year-old Andrew McCutchen is, by at least one measure of WAR, the second-most valuable player in baseball behind only Mike Trout. A true five-tool player who is considered by many to be the frontrunner for the NL Most Valuable Player award, McCutchen is also notable for doing what past generations of Pirates stars hadn’t. He decided to stay, signing a $51 million extension prior to last season that buys out two years of his free agency and keeps him under team control through the 2018 season.

McCutchen doesn’t turn 27 until next month, making him the senior member of an outfield that could potentially be overflowing with talent over the next few years. Starling Marte, 26 in October, has been worth more than four wins in his first full season, stealing 36 bases (along with 13 failed attempts, which is admittedly poor) to go with an above-average .344 wOBA and solid defense. If Marte manages to get four more extra-base hits (he’s been dealing with a hand injury lately), he’ll be just the third Pirate since the end of World War II to put up a season of 35 steals and 50 extra-base hits.

While the Pirates have had trouble all season long filling right field next to Marte & McCutchen — they’ve used 10 players there, and only four clubs have had less cumulative production from the position — that could change relatively soon. Gregory Polanco, who turns 22 on Saturday, moved up to #17 on Keith Law’s midseason Top 50 Prospects list while playing at three minor league levels, including Triple-A Indianapolis, and could see time in Pittsburgh as soon as next year. Polanco has stolen 78 bases over the last two seasons, so when he arrives, the Pirates will have three of the youngest, fastest, and most talented outfielders in baseball roaming the grass at PNC Park.

While the outfield is where the star power is on offense, it might be difficult to compete with the coming one-two punch in the starting rotation that Pirates fans have been dying to see since the team used back-to-back top-two draft picks on pitchers in 2010 and 2011. Righty Gerrit Cole, who turned 23 just last weekend, arrived in Pittsburgh earlier this summer and has proven more than effective, pitching to a 3.48 ERA / 3.18 FIP in 16 starts and allowing more than three earned runs just once.

Cole was already a highly-touted prospect, but even he has shown improvement in his brief time in the big leagues. Over his first eight starts, Cole relied mostly on his sinker and his fastball and had difficulty missing bats, striking out just 29 in 48.2 innings. In his last eight starts, he’s dialed down the sinker usage to take more advantage of his full arsenal, and the results have been clear — in a nearly equal 49.2 innings, he’s struck out 46 hitters, a much better rate. Cole’s adjustments made for national news on Monday night when he outdueled Texas’ ace, Yu Darvish, and struck out nine Rangers over seven scoreless innings — including striking out the side in just 11 pitches in the bottom of the fifth inning.

Taillon, meanwhile turns 22 in November and was the number two pick out of high school in the 2010 draft. Ranked ranked as a consistent top-fifteen prospect, he should make his debut next year. After years of wasting first round picks on the low-upside likes of Brian Bullington, Daniel Moskos, and Brad Lincoln, the team is finally reaping the rewards of smart, focused drafting. Imagine what we might have been saying about the future rotation had they been able to sign Mark Appel, their top 2012 pick who returned to the draft and went number one overall to Houston this year?

Along with 25-year-old starter Jeff Locke, 26-year-old third baseman Pedro Alvarez — both first-time All-Stars this year, though neither without their flaws — and 26-year-old lefty reliever Justin Watson, the Bucs have built up a core of excellent young talent that they can build around. With prospects like shortstop Alen Hanson and pitchers Tyler Glasnow & Luis Heredia on the way, the Pittsburgh pipeline should continue to provide reinforcements.

It takes more than just prospects to win, of course and general manager Neil Huntington is going to have to continue to pull rabbits out of his hat like he’s done recently with the successful low-risk acquisitions of important pieces like A.J. Burnett, Jason Grilli, Garrett Jones, Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin, & Mark Melancon. He might even have to package some of those young players for the additional elite bat this offense probably needs.

Even if it’s taken far longer than fans might have liked, Pittsburgh is finally a destination where free agents might consider coming if they want to contend. That might be a win just as big as any of the 84 they have so far this year, and it’s why things are just getting started for the Pirates.

The AL MVP is going to be Miguel Cabrera, barring some kind of historic upset that would seemingly require a late season felony conviction of some sort, and even then, he might still win the award anyway. The outcome of the NL MVP race isn’t quite as clear, but it will very likely come down to Clayton Kershaw, Yadier Molina, or Andrew McCutchen. These are the players who are going to receive recognition for their efforts in contributing to a team’s success, and rightfully so; they’re all having fantastic seasons and are worthy candidates.

But, baseball is not basketball, and the impact any one player can have on a team’s final record pales in comparison to the sum of his teammates; just ask Mike Trout how realistic it is for even the game’s very best performer to “carry” his team to the postseason without assistance. The reality is that good teams are made up of numerous contributors. So, today, let’s talk about some of the guys who deserve recognition on MVP ballots, even if they aren’t going to occupy one of the few spots.

Russell Martin, C, Pittsburgh

While McCutchen is the star and pitchers like A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano get the spotlight, Martin might be the biggest factor in the Pirates success this year. Signed for a relative pittance — $17 million over two years — after the Yankees decided they didn’t want him back, Martin has been a revelation in Pittsburgh.

The bat is more solid than spectacular, but a 109 wRC+ from an everyday catcher is well above average for the position, and unlike many other good hitting catchers, he doesn’t get a break from the toll of catching by spending time at first base or designated hitter; in fact, Martin ranks 7th in the majors in innings behind the plate, which is where his value really comes through.

Martin leads the majors in runners gunned down stealing, with 33 baserunner kills to his credit in just 76 attempts, a spectacular 44% caught stealing rate, and it’s not the Pirates pitchers doing a great job of holding runners; Pirates catchers not named Russell Martin have allowed 37 stolen bases on 43 attempts, a 14% caught stealing rate that is in line with the awful performance the Pirates had as a team last year before bringing Martin in over the winter.

And that’s just the running game. As Jared Cross wrote earlier this week, catchers can have a significant impact on the called strike zone by the way they receive the ball, and while that piece focused on Yadier Molina and Jonathan Lucroy, Martin also excels at this skill, coming out at +19 runs according to Cross’ evaluation.

Martin currently ranks 12th in the NL in FanGraphs version of WAR even though framing runs are not yet included in the calculation. If you give him any bump at all for his contributions to turning balls into strikes, he easily flies into the top 10, and if you give him the full 19 runs that Cross estimated, then he’d actually end up #2, behind only McCutchen.

And when you look at the Pirates staff — with cast-offs like Burnett, Liriano, Mark Melancon, and Jason Grilli — taking starring roles for the best run prevention unit in baseball, it’s hard to not notice that Martin is the common link between all of them. His arrival has transformed the Pirates defense, and that is the unit that is carrying them to the postseason. He won’t get many MVP votes, but he deserves recognition for being one of the primary catalysts on the best story of the year.

Yunel Escobar, SS, Tampa Bay

Escobar’s back story is as much about his conflict with teammates and team personnel as it is about his performance, which hasn’t exactly been consistent either. The Braves tired of him in 2010, shipping him to Toronto simply because they didn’t want to be around him anymore, and the Blue Jays shipped him to the Marlins in the Mega Deal of the Winter in part because he performed terribly last season. The Marlins had no interest in keeping him, however, and only took him to offset some of the salary they were forcing the Blue Jays to take on in Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, so Miami dumped him on the Rays before he ever suited up for them.

Acquiring Escobar for a fringe prospect has turned out to be one of the primary reasons the Rays are in line to take a wild card spot, as he has returned to prior excellent form on the field and has apparently fit right into the Rays unusual clubhouse atmosphere as well. With a 104 wRC+ and terrific defense, Escobar leads all American League shortstops in WAR, and his presence has allowed Ben Zobrist to shift back over to his more natural positions, strengthening the team’s defense across the board.

And Maddon is a fan of Escobar’s personality, even if others haven’t been before. A month ago, Maddon told MLB.com:

“It’s entertainment, man, and this guy entertains,” Maddon said. “You watch before the game how he energizes the dugout before everyone takes the field. He’s always up. He’s upbeat. He brings a lot of positive energy to us.”

The players say they like him. The manager likes him. There is no evidence of dissent in the Rays clubhouse, and of course, Escobar is performing on the field. While his reputation might not ever completely dissolve, Escobar’s 2013 season is showing that in baseball, one organization’s trash can absolutely be another team’s treasure.

Chris Johnson, 3B, Atlanta

It’s always going to be referred to as the Justin Upton trade, as the Braves traded away Martin Prado and a group of prospects to land Arizona’s talented young right fielder over the winter, but the second piece that came east in that trade — third baseman Chris Johnson — has been just as important as the guy who they made the trade to get. Consider their performances side by side:

Johnson: .330/.366/.466, .361 wOBA, 131 wRC+
Upton: .262/.354/.469, .358 wOBA, 129 wRC+

By WAR, Upton leads +2.7 to +2.6, which is a tie, for all intents and purposes. Johnson isn’t a very good defensive third baseman, and there’s no way he’s going to keep hitting .330 in the future, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been an excellent offensive player for the Braves in 2013, and is one of the primary reasons that their offense has been so good even with prolonged slumps from the Upton brothers and Jason Heyward landing on the disabled list. Johnson is hardly the most recognizable player on the roster, but his contributions shouldn’t go unnoticed.

On Sept. 1, 2011, the Red Sox had the best record in the American League. On Sept. 1, 2013, the Red Sox had the best record in the American League. But for Boston, which moved up three spots to third in the ESPN Power Rankings this week, the starting rotation’s poor work that caused the disastrous 2011 implosion is a thing of the past. This year’s rotation is not only just as talented but also deeper.

The depth is the key here. In September 2011, the Red Sox’s rotation was running on fumes. Its starting five had pitched well in July and August, but things crashed and burned in September. Like this year, the Red Sox lost Clay Buchholz in June 2011. But unlike this year, Buchholz never pitched again. (Buchholz is expected back later this month and has already made one rehab start.) That forced the team to first hand the ball to Andrew Miller, who quickly proved that he should never be trusted as a starter again — in his 40 1/3 innings in the rotation in June and July, he struck out 25 and walked 25 and posted a 5.36 ERA.

After Miller, the team turned to trade deadline acquisition Erik Bedard. Bedard pitched better, but he wasn’t durable. An injured lat and knee forced him from the rotation on Sept. 3, and when he returned to the rotation on Sept. 20, he was a disaster — he allowed seven baserunners in a start that lasted just 2 2/3 innings. He gave it one more go seven days later in the penultimate game of the season and struck out six in a better effort, but still went only 3 1/3 innings.

When Bedard couldn’t take the ball in early September 2011, the team was forced to turn back to Miller, and the results were predictable. He tossed just 6 1/3 innings in his two September starts, allowed 11 runs and walked more hitters than he struck out. The Sox lost both games, and he was pushed back into the bullpen, where he has remained — and thrived — ever since.

Bedard’s injury on Sept. 3 left the team thin, and the situation only got worse two days later when Josh Beckettrolled his ankle at the Rogers Centre. Beckett would need to skip his next start, and in stepped Kyle Weiland. A third-round pick in 2008, Weiland had been a nonentity until ’11, when he punched out 23.5 percent of the hitters he faced in Triple-A Pawtucket. Still, he wasn’t ready for prime time. He got two spot starts in July and bombed the audition — he allowed nine runs in 10 innings and struck out four against five walks. But Boston had nowhere else to turn in mid-September, and Weiland got the ball once again. In his three September starts, he never escaped the fifth inning, and the Sox lost all three games. In his final outing on Sept. 19, he coughed up three homers to the Orioles in 4 2/3 innings. Of the 456 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings in the majors that season, only eight posted a worse FIP than Weiland’s 6.55 mark.

When Beckett was able to take the ball again on Sept. 16, it was with great relief. The team had lost six of its past seven and had allowed 60 runs in those seven games (for an abhorrent 7.5 runs per game). And for that one night, Beckett was fine — he tossed a quality start and struck out seven against one walk, and the Sox rolled. But working on regular rest his next two times out, it was clear that he was gassed. On Sept. 21, he struck out eight and walked just one, but he also allowed six runs as the then-lowly Orioles roasted the Red Sox for 13 runs total. Still, eight strikeouts … not bad, right? There was hope. But in his final start, Beckett’s average fastball velocity would dip under 93 mph for the first time in 11 starts, and the Orioles let him have it again. The next year, his average fastball would fall to 91.2 mph, and now after a May injury this year, his days as a quality pitcher seem long behind him.

Heading into this season, that is also how things looked for John Lackey. Demonized along with Beckett in the beer-and-fried-chicken fallout following the 2011 season, Lackey was chugging on the fumes of his fumes that September. He allowed at least four runs in all five of his starts that month and didn’t go past six innings in any of them. His 9.13 ERA that September was easily the worst full-month mark of his career, and after it he needed Tommy John surgery. When he came back this year, little was expected of him, even when he showed up to Sarasota, Fla., looking fit and trim. And for a minute, it looked like he would deliver little, as he left his first start with arm trouble and missed most of April. But since his return, he has been both a revelation and a rock in the rotation. He hasn’t quite been vintage Lackey, but he has been as good as he was in 2009 and 2010, and that isjust fine and dandy like sour candy.

Lackey is part of a rotation that already runs five-deep with dependable starters, and if Buchholz is as good as he was in the first half when and if he returns later this month, the Sox will suddenly have more starters than they can pitch. The logical cut would be Ryan Dempster, who has easily been the worst of the bunch this season (see chart at right). But while Dempster hasn’t performed as expected this year, having him as a sixth starter is a lot more comforting than having to turn to Miller, Weiland or Alfredo Aceves, as the Red Sox did in 2011. And if for some reason they need more than these six guys — which is unlikely, considering the active quintet has made 40 of the team’s 43 second-half starts — they can turn to Brandon Workman. A prospect who graduated in midseason, Workman was touted by Baseball America as having the best curveball and the best control in the farm system this year, and he has delivered as advertised — he has struck out 37 hitters and walked just 12 in his 34 innings in Boston thus far.

Looking at the seasons month by month, the 2011 starting rotation never posted a FIP under 4.00. This season, the starting rotation has had three such months, including the past two. The normal five members of the rotation have made every start since Aug. 6, when Steven Wright got a spot start. Entering Sunday, Boston starters had tossed 11 straight starts with a Game Score of 50 or better.

The Red Sox are as equally well-positioned in the standings this September as they were back in 2011, but in 2011 the floor was crumbling beneath them, and they didn’t have enough quality reinforcements to help them find their footing. This season, the Red Sox may not have a true ace, but if Buchholz comes back soon, they have as many as seven quality options in the rotation from which to choose. This puts them on much more stable ground than September of ’11, when no member of the rotation posted an ERA under 5.00. Boston still has to go out and win it and has a tougher September schedule than do the Tampa Bay Rays, but don’t be fooled — this season’s starting rotation is nothing like 2011’s, and the rotation’s quality and depth should help Boston cruise to its first division title since 2007.

With all the new television money flowing into the game, Major League teams have ramped up pre-free agent contract extensions, keeping the best players away from the open market. When the off-season rolls around, you’re going to hear a lot of talk about what a lousy group of players are available, especially if Robinson Cano ends up staying with the Yankees. However, there’s one area where this free agent class is actually quite interesting: broken but perhaps fixable formerly great pitchers.

Among the hurlers who will hit the open market this year: Roy Halladay (2010 NL Cy Young), Tim Lincecum (2008/2009 NL Cy Youngs), Dan Haren (three time All-Star, finished 7th in 2011 Cy Young), and Josh Johnson (two time All-Star, finished 5th in 2010 Cy Young). Just a couple of years ago, this quartet would have made up the best rotation in baseball, as they combined to throw 749 innings and post a 2.67 ERA in 2011.

Over the last few years, though, things haven’t gone so well, especially this season. Over 419 innings, these four pitchers have combined for a 5.22 ERA. Halladay didn’t look like himself last year, and spent most of this season on the DL with a shoulder problem. Johnson was lousy for the Blue Jays in the first half and will end up missing the final two months of the season with a forearm strain. Lincecum has stayed off the DL, but his velocity is still missing and his ERA over 4.50 for the second straight year. Haren was so bad in the first half that the Nationals stashed him on the DL just to give him a break, and while he’s been better since, his 4.66 ERA overall is not what the team was hoping for when they signed him as a free agent.

In each case, the results these guys have posted make them look like a shell of their former selves. However, in each case, there’s reason for some optimism about the future, and a team with a significant appetite for risk could potentially rebuild their entire rotation in one fell swoop this winter.

ERA can often be a misleading indicator of future performance, and especially in one or two year samples, a pitcher’s FIP and xFIP will often give you more of an idea of what they’re going to do in the future. We’ve already noted that these pitchers have all been lousy by ERA this season, but FIP and xFIP tell a pretty different story in each case.

Tim Lincecum: 4.55 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.39 xFIP
Josh Johnson: 6.20 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 3.59 xFIP
Dan Haren: 4.66 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.81 xFIP
Roy Halladay: 7.92 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 4.58 xFIP

Lincecum, Johnson, and Haren all grade out pretty well by xFIP, which is based on their walk rates, strikeout rates, and ground ball rates. Halladay’s numbers aren’t as good, but his 2013 season covers fewer than 50 innings so far, and an off-season of resting his shoulder may allow him to come back stronger next year. Even including Halladay, the group’s collective FIP is 4.24, and their xFIP is 3.66, so some significant positive regression may be in store.

Of course, that regression is not guaranteed. Among the pitchers who posted a much higher ERA than xFIP last year was Joe Blanton, who was a total disaster for the Angels this year. Lincecum was on the list last year as well, and while he’s been better this season than last, his ERA is still much higher than his xFIP. There could be sustainable problems that are driving higher hit and home run rates for each of these four hurlers, and especially for pitchers who have health issues, their results can’t be entirely ignored.

However, in each case, these guys have a long track record of big league success. It isn’t a question of talent, as each have proven themselves more than capable of dominating Major League hitters when they’re healthy and locating their pitches effectively. None of these guys are Joe Blanton. As recently as two years ago, these were four of the elite pitchers in baseball.

Perhaps age and injuries have permanently broken them, and I wouldn’t expect any of them to turn back the clock and pitch like they were 27 again. However, as their underlying peripherals mostly show, the rumors of their demise may have been greatly exaggerated. For teams willing to take risks on short term bets for aging, past-their-prime starters, this winter looks like one of the best crops in recent history. You’re not going to rebuild your franchise around one of these guys, but if a team is looking for a rotation boost in 2014, there are several very interesting options to be found.

It was a rough week for the Atlanta Braves. Not only did they drop four of their six games but they also got the one-two punch to the gut of losing Brandon Beachy and Jason Heyward to injury.

They did drop another spot in the ESPN Power Rankings, back to the No. 3 spot, but there is little reason for concern at this point as far as their playoff hopes are concerned. However, some recent injuries reveal a team that could be very vulnerable come October.

Playoff lock

According to Coolstandings.com, the Braves have had a 99.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason since Aug. 4, and their mini-slump this week has not affected their odds one iota. Not only have they been the best team in baseball but their competition has been lacking. There is no other team in the National League East above .500, and, at 65-65, the Nationals have just a 4.1 percent chance to reach the postseason, which is easily the lowest percentage for a team currently in second place in its division. With a whole week of August still to go, we are already talking about Atlanta’s magic number.

The problem for the Braves is that the team that built that lead is not the same one that is taking the field right now. In fact, Fangraphs projects them to be just a .500 team the rest of the way, good for the 12th-best record in baseball. This is mildly alarming, but not for the reason you might think.

Momentum myth

If Atlanta stumbles down the stretch, you are sure to hear a lot about why that is a bad omen for the postseason. Now, a team never likes to limp into the playoffs, especially if it’s with two of its best players rusty or on the shelf. However, statistically, there’s very little to the notion that a team needs momentum entering the postseason tournament.

Back in 2005, Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times noted that, from 1969 (the first season of the two-division/league championship series play format) through 2004, World Series champions had a slightly worse September record than the average playoff team and that the team with the best record in September won the World Series only eight times in 35 seasons, and six of those eight teams also had the best overall regular-season record. This essentially means that just two teams that got red-hot in September went on to win the Fall Classic.

Momentum aside, the real issue for the Braves could simply be that they won’t be as good a team if Heyward and Beachy aren’t on the field. Heyward, in particular, has really come into his own. The still-just-24-year-old had been putting together a monster second half at the dish before taking a fastball off the cheek.

He had been hitting .317/.405/.554 since the break, and his 168 wRC+ — a measure of a player’s overall offensive contributions compared with the league average — was seventh-best in the game among qualified hitters. His jaw wasn’t wired shut, however, so there is hope that he can be ready for the postseason, even if he has to wear a Dave Parker-like mask in the batter’s box.

The only real effect on Atlanta, though, will be dealing with whether he is rusty once the postseason starts, as the Braves actually have several capable bodies in the outfield.

Plenty of players

The most capable replacement for Heyward  is Joey Terdoslavich, a 24-year-old Florida native whom the Braves plucked out of the sixth round of the 2010 first-year player draft. Since his call-up on July 4, Terdoslavich has displayed a keen eye at the plate, albeit in a small sample — he has walked in eight of his 49 second-half plate appearances, good for a robust 16.3 percent walk rate.

In addition, the team has Evan Gattis and Jordan Schafer, both of whom have tailed off after monster first halves but nevertheless possess the talent to cover for Heyward in his absence. Gattis is especially free for outfield support now that third catcher Gerald Laird is back in the lineup.

The story is similar in the rotation — the Braves have dug deep this season to find arms when they’ve needed them. For a while, there was the thought that they had too many starters, but when Tim Hudson was felled for the season, in stepped Beachy. But now, with Beachy possibly being lost for the season after a complication in his surgically repaired right elbow, the team can turn to lefty Alex Wood.

Wood himself had stepped into Paul Maholm’s spot when the latter landed on the DL, but now Maholm is back and Wood has been pitching well in the rotation. He has posted a 2.52 ERA and 2.56 FIP in his six second-half starts — both marks best the effort put forth by staff ace Mike Minor. Like Heyward, Beachy had been playing well, but, over the course of a month, it isn’t hard to replace his contributions. If Atlanta has any problem on its hands, it will be setting a postseason rotation — specifically, whether Wood is needed more in the rotation or in the bullpen, where he had pitched well earlier in the season.

Losing Heyward and Beachy in one week is no doubt painful for a Braves squad that has faced more than its fair share of injuries this season. However, not only do the Braves have good depth to cover for them but they are going to sail into the playoffs on the wings of their 13-game lead.

And even if they drag themselves into the postseason in T-101 fashion, their lack of momentum won’t be a death knell as long as they can get some of their injured players — particularly Heyward — back on the field.

When the Red Sox shipped Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett to the Dodgers last year, they cleared a little more than $260 million in guaranteed contracts off their books. It was the salary dump to end all salary dumps, and that they happened to land a couple of flame throwing pitching prospects was just a nifty bonus. The primary motivation for the deal was to recoup the money they’d spent, giving them a chance to reallocate those dollars in a more effective fashion in the future.

This winter, that future is going to become the present. The Red Sox spent last winter redistributing their newly available cash to quality role players on short term contracts, and after the season ends, the team will not longer have any further commitments to the likes of Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew, or Joel Hanrahan, and only Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, and Shane Victorino are signed through the 2015 season. Even after acquiring Jake Peavy at the trade deadline, the Red Sox are still expected to have approximately $40 million to spend this winter, and there are going to be opportunities for the team to put that money to use.

The primary decision, and the one that will shape what the rest of Boston’s off-season will look like, will require an in depth look at Jacoby Ellsbury’s value. Ellsbury’s return to excellence has been one of the driving factors in the team’s success, and it would not be easy to replace his production, especially considering that Ellsbury earned just $9 million this season. But, to retain his services for the future would likely require a 100% raise over a long term deal, and the Red Sox might not be that interested in signing another $100+ million deal with an outfielder whose value comes from speed and defense after seeing the Crawford deal go bad so recently.

If Ellsbury asks for something like $18 million per year over seven years — the 7/126 template that was given to Vernon Wells, Jayson Werth, and Barry Zito, making it both a popular and infamous contract total — then his days in Boston are likely numbered. With Shane Victorino capable of moving back to center field in the short term, and Jackie Bradley Jr around as a long term replacement, the Sox are not running low on center field options. The marginal value Ellsbury could provide to another team may very well be higher than the value he can provide to the Red Sox, who could fill his gap with a lower priced corner outfielder instead.

Of course, Ellsbury might not shoot for the moon, and the Red Sox would be foolish to closing the door on his return altogether. Having Ellsbury and Victorino play side by side hasn’t hurt them this year, and if he wants to continue his career in Boston at a less-than-market rate — say, $80 million over five years? — then the Red Sox should be willing to bring him back and figure out what to do with Victorino and Bradley when it becomes a problem. That scenario seems unlikely, however, with Ellsbury likely to command a much larger contract from a team badly in need of a center fielder who can also jumpstart an offense.

So, let’s pencil the Red Sox in for an outfielder not named Ellsbury. They’re also likely going to want a first baseman to replace Napoli, who has been decent but perhaps not quite as effective as hoped. They’ll probably also need an infielder who can slide between shortstop and third base, giving them some depth behind youngsters Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks. And finally, they’ll have a decision to make behind the plate, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia set for free agency.

$40 million and the shopping list includes an OF, an IF, a 1B, and a C? No problem. Here’s one way to spend those funds and keep the team in contention for years to come:

Sign catcher Brian McCann to a four year, $60 million contract.
Sign outfielder Carlos Beltran to a one year, $13 million contract.
Sign infielder Jhonny Peralta to a one year, $7 million contract.
Sign first baseman Michael Morse to a one year, $5 million contract.

McCann has had a huge season in his final year before free agency, answering some of the questions surrounding whether his body was breaking down after carrying a heavy workload in Atlanta since 2006. The Braves seem unlikely to re-sign McCann, but a qualifying offer is a near lock, which should depress the market and allow Boston to forfeit a late first round pick in order to pick up an impact bat at a reasonable price.

And as a bonus, the Sox already have McCann’s former platoon partner in David Ross, who they signed from the Braves last winter. McCann and Ross form a formidable left/right tandem, and Ben Cherington could get the band back together with a contract that lures McCann to Boston. While questions about his health are legitimate, McCann can produce enough to justify a $15 million paycheck even while spending parts of the year on the DL. Yes, it’s another lefty bat on a team that hasn’t hit right-handed pitching that well this year, but we’ll get to that part with the next three signings.

To replace Ellsbury in the outfield, the switch-hitting Beltran is something of the Red Sox ideal player: still productive, hits lefties, won’t require a long term commitment. The Cardinals outfield logjam may force Beltran to look for work elsewhere, and a move to the AL where he could get some days at DH when David Ortiz rests could help prolong his career. He would provide the perfect bridge to Bradley Jr, who could fill in as a part-time player behind Beltran in 2014 before taking a full-time job in 2015, when Victorino might be best served moving back to right field.

Additionally, the acquisitions of Peralta and Morse would give the team two more right-handed hitters who shouldn’t require multiple year commitments, and provide additional depth at multiple positions. Peralta likely won’t have a strong market after serving a 50 game suspension for being linked to BioGenesis, but he’s worth the gamble as a super utility guy who could split time between all the infield positions and play 3-4 days per week, or take over a starting job if either Bogaerts or Middlebrooks shows that they’re not quite ready for prime time. Morse was miscast as an outfielder by the Mariners, but could share the first base job with Mike Carp, allowing both to play the position where their lack of athleticism hurts the team as little as possible, and Morse can still hit lefties and fake it against right-handers if need be.

While the contract figures for McCann, Beltran, Peralta, and Morse are all speculative at this point, they’re reasonable price points for the players, as each comes with some kind of red flag but has enough upside to make the risk worth it. These players fit the mold that Cherington pursued last winter, allowing the team to make key additions when available without threatening the long term health of the franchise.

This is the kind of off-season that would set the Red Sox up for another strong push in 2014, and it’s only possible because of the Great Salary Dump of 2012. This is the trade that just keeps on giving.

When the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers matched up on the stunning trade that sent more than a quarter-billion dollars worth of contract commitments west last year, reactions in the baseball world to what the Dodgers had done tended to take on a certain tone. “Risky” was on the nicer end of that scale, while more often than not words like “gluttonous,” “laughable,” or simply “insane” were tossed around as the game struggled to comprehend the scale of what had happened.

For the Dodgers, it was an opportunity to jump-start a tattered organization that hasn’t been to the World Series since 1988 and had suffered through years of neglect due to the personal problems of former owner Frank McCourt.

In Boston, it was seen as a chance to make a fresh start as the Red Sox continued on the path to 93 losses, their worst season since 1966.

One year later, as the Red Sox come to Dodger Stadium for a highly-anticipated series this weekend, both clubs are in first place and looking towards October. It may have been a shocking deal when it happened, but it’s turned out to be a win/win that neither side would undo if they had the chance — and it’s a big part of the success both teams have had.

Here’s why.

As ESPN’s Buster Olney reported at the time, the response he heard from those in front offices of other clubs was that it was a “terrible value” and a “huge overpay” for the Dodgers. After all, in order to acquire Adrian Gonzalez — one of the central figures of the clubhouse revolt against Boston manager Bobby Valentine — they also had to agree to take on the more than $130 million still due declining pitcher Josh Beckett and injured, unproductive outfielder Carl Crawford. That they still had to send five players to Boston (including highly regarded pitching prospects Rubby de la Rosa and Allen Webster) to seal the deal seemed to be an unnecessary hardship.

When the Dodgers pulled the trigger on the trade, their goal was clear. They badly wanted Gonzalez, the first baseman who had followed up a smashing 2011 Boston debut (.407 wOBA) with a below-average (for him) .348 mark through mid-August of 2012. With the continually disappointing James Loney as the incumbent at first base and few upgrades at the position available either in the organization or on the upcoming free agent market, the opportunity to add a Southern California native who remains popular with the area’s huge Hispanic base was too tempting to pass up.

Acquiring Gonzalez was the primary focus, but it was Crawford who represented the largest risk. The former Tampa Bay star had hit just .260/.292/.419 in two seasons with Red Sox, proving that the marriage was a mismatch both on the field and off. He’d also undergone Tommy John surgery on his elbow just days before the trade, so his status to even start the season for the Dodgers was uncertain.

Crawford was not only ready for Opening Day, he hit .308/.388/.516 in April, filling the leadoff hole and pairing with Gonzalez to be basically the only two Dodgers to hit at all during the early part of the season, especially with Ramirez hurt and Kemp struggling. As the team struggled to stay afloat, it was their two Boston imports that were leading the offense. He’s missed a chunk of time since then due to a hamstring injury and has shown uneven results since then until an August rebound, but he’s proven that he can still contribute on both sides of the ball in a situation where he’s happy and healthy.

Beckett made just eight mediocre starts before being lost for the season, though the team has survived just fine without him; Crawford, Gonzalez, and fellow trade acquisition Nick Punto have combined for a full-season pace of approximately eight wins above replacement. If that’s perhaps not quite the impact that Puig and Ramirez have provided, it does make for a far deeper lineup than the one that finished eight games out of first last year.

While most of the focus was in Los Angeles, the Red Sox took a risk in this as well. Yes, clearing themselves of so much payroll and clubhouse trouble represented an unexpected chance they couldn’t pass up. But Boston is a difficult town to commit to a rebuilding process in, and removing Gonzalez created a hole both at first base and in the heart of the lineup. Coming off the disaster that was 2012, few observers picked the Red Sox to make it out of the tough American League East, much less compete for the best record in the league.

It should be noted that not only did the Sox “acquire” significant financial flexibility with all the money they cleared from the books in the deal, they haven’t lost it. The deals they signed this offseason could never be considered frightening, or of the long-term variety.

As the teams prepare to face on the field this weekend, there still a good case to be made that the Dodgers overpaid to get Gonzalez. That’s true not so much for the money (which they seem to have endless reserves of), but because they assumed most of the risk and still had to kick in a few very good prospects. Still, they managed to hang onto their best prospects like Zach Lee and Joc Pederson, and none of the big contracts they received extend past age 36.

The Dodgers wouldn’t be in this position without Gonzalez, and the Red Sox wouldn’t be here with him. It’s hard to think of a better outcome for both sides than that.

Across the sport, the majors are in the midst of a renaissance of incredible young starting pitching. To merely name Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg as elite under-26 talents is to neglect the work of Madison Bumgarner, Shelby Miller, Matt Moore, Chris Sale and so many outstanding others.

But those are the big names, the ones who win awards and headline highlight packages. Everyone knows them. While the attention is mostly given to those top-line pitchers, there’s an impressive crop of young arms behind them who may not be future aces in the sense that Fernandez and Harvey might be, yet are still making names for themselves at the beginning of what could be very productive careers. Let’s shine a spotlight on four under-the-radar pitchers who are excelling this season.

Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
While all of the pitching press in Flushing these days goes to Harvey and Zack Wheeler, the Mets do have a pitcher younger than Harvey who was in the big leagues before he or Wheeler were even in the organization. Mejia was rushed to the show as a reliever in 2010 at just 20 years old by the previous administration, perhaps trying to generate some excitement while fearing (correctly) that their tenure was ending. Mejia had been a starter in the minors and a nicely regarded prospect, but struggled with his command out of the bullpen that season while throwing nearly 80 percent fastballs — which did little for the development of his secondary pitches. He then blew out his elbow early the next season and missed most of 2011 and 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Once again healthy, Mejia — still just 23 — has returned to the Mets and has been very impressive in doing so. He shut out the Nationals in Washington over seven innings in his season debut in July and in his first four starts he’s managed a 22/3 K/BB mark in 24.1 innings. He’s also brought with him a brand-new slider, one that he’s thrown about a quarter of the time this season. That’s allowed him to use his naturally cutting fastball less often and keep hitters off guard. While there’s still a chance that a somewhat undersized righty with an injury history ends up in the bullpen, the thought of Mejia joining with Harvey and Wheeler to form a young powerful rotation trio for years to come has to give Mets fans some hope.

Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds
A third-round pick in 2011, the 24-year-old Rice product has done nothing but pile up absurd strikeout numbers during his professional career. In 228 minor league innings over parts of the last three seasons, he whiffed 301, then made his big league debut last September just over a year after being drafted.

Cingrani relies almost exclusively on his fastball, leading many to believe that his future is in the bullpen, but 14 of his 19 appearances for Cincinnati this season have been starts, and he’s looked excellent in them. In seven starts since a brief trip to the bullpen in June, Cingrani has allowed just a .164/.265/.250 line while striking out 45 in 40 innings. A particular highlight came on July 28, when he struck out 11 otherwise unstoppable Dodgers over seven shutout one-hit innings.

Despite the reliance on his main pitch — the fastball that succeeds in part because of his deceptive delivery — Cingrani has shown no problem with missing bats so far. His swinging strike percentage of 9.6 percent not only ranks him in the top 40 of all starters, but it puts him slightly ahead of young stars like Fernandez and Miller. Still, he’ll need to increase his offerings if he plans to stay in the rotation long term, and he’s begun to do that by introducing a new sweeping curveball this season. While it’s more of a “show-me” pitch at this point designed more to keep batters thinking than anything else, he’s also yet to allow a hit off it on any of the 68 times he’s thrown it.

Nate Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
Acquired from Los Angeles in the deal that sent Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers last year, the 23-year-old Eovaldi is perhaps best known for being a product of the same Texas high school that Nolan Ryan attended. That’s beginning to change, however. Eovaldi is now hitting triple digits on the radar gun and showing flashes of the talent that made him so appealing to the Marlins when they were shopping Ramirez.

Eovaldi’s career numbers may look underwhelming, but it’s important to remember that he was just 21 when the Dodgers skipped him past Triple-A to help reinforce a tattered rotation in 2011. He flashed potential in 16 starts with Los Angeles over 2011-12 before being traded, though he generally struggled with his control. Still, a FIP of 4.18 through 154 innings over his first two seasons put him at only slightly below league average, which was 4.01 last season. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with being an average major leaguer before your 23rd birthday.

A bout with shoulder soreness delayed his 2013 debut until June. But in the 10 starts since, he’s allowed more than three runs just once. While his 3.83 FIP doesn’t quite back up his 2.82 ERA, it does continue his trend of improvement each year. As with many young pitchers, Eovaldi needs to improve his secondary pitches, though his slider is showing promise. Eovaldi’s ceiling is short of an “ace,” but with fellow young pitching talents like Fernandez and Jacob Turner in the Miami rotation, it doesn’t need to be.

Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
This could have just as easily been 25-year-old Alex Cobb or 24-year-old Alex Colome, because the Rays are just overflowing with young pitching. (Even Moore, in the Cy Young conversation until he was sidelined by a sore elbow, only just turned 24.) The twice-traded Archer is the proud owner of one of the most impressive outings from any pitcher this season: a two-hit, 1-0 shutout of the Yankees in New York in late July.

Armed with a solid fastball and an excellent slider, Archer still needs to master his consistency, since he’s allowed four or more earned runs three times in 14 starts and left early with an injury in another. Still, he’s also capable of doing things like allowing only three earned runs in five July starts. He is part of the young core that makes the possibility of trading David Price a palatable option.

On paper, the playoff race in the National League looks pretty boring. The Braves have a 14 game lead in the NL East, and while nothing is ever a completely sure thing in mid-August, they’re about as close to a lock to win their division as you’re going to find. The Dodgers, meanwhile, haven’t lost a game since some time back in May — okay, they have, it just feels that way — and look poised to run away with the NL West, especially if Matt Kemp ever gets healthy.

The NL Central is shaping up to be a fun fight, but with St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati fighting over one division title and two wild card spots, it mostly seems to be a fight to avoid the wild card game, with the two runners up likely to face off once the regular season is over. It’s not impossible to see Arizona running down one of the Central teams and perhaps adding a little more intrigue, but even if they make a run, we’re still looking at six teams fighting for five spots. The NL does not look like it’s in for any kind of dramatic finish.

However, there is a seventh team quietly lurking, hanging out on the periphery of the playoff bubble, not quite a serious threat yet but with enough potential to pull off a miracle. Of all the teams in baseball that look like their season may already be over, the Washington Nationals are the one who might just have a chance to shock the world and end up playing in October.

On the one hand, the Nationals making the postseason wouldn’t be a stunner, because this team was supposed to be good. They had the best record in baseball last year, and then added pieces like Denard Span, Dan Haren, and Rafael Soriano to fortify their defenses. With Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper ready for stardom, this was supposed to be the year of Natitude. Instead, pretty much everyone on the team has been a disappointment in some manner, and the Nationals find themselves 14 games behind the Braves in mid-August.

The division race is probably over at this point. Not officially, of course, as teams have come back from this kind of deficit before, but it would take a collapse of historic proportions for Atlanta to give the NL East title away. It’s theoretically possible — the 1995 Angels say hello — but it’s unrealistic to expect that kind of comeback; the gap is just too large.

However, with the Cardinals and Reds both showing some vulnerability and the Nationals winning five straight, sneaking back into the wild card race isn’t completely out of the question. After Wednesday’s games, Cool Standings gives the Nationals a 3.1% chance of winning the wild card. 1-in-33 odds aren’t very good, of course, but there are reasons to think that maybe the Nationals can be the one who pulls this kind of miracle off.

For one, they’re better than they’ve played so far this year. The thing about underachievers is that they’re underachieving because they’ve played better in the recent past, and some percentage of those underachievers are likely to play more like their old track records than their 2013 performances. The Nationals have no shortage of candidates for improvement over the final six weeks, starting with Dan Haren.

Haren is certainly not the front line starter he used to be, but he also is showing signs of pitching significantly better than he did in the first half of the year. He was atrocious for the first three months of the year, giving up 19 home runs in just 82 innings pitched, looking like the same broken down starter that the Angels dumped over the winter. However, after a short stint on the DL, Haren has been fantastic since June ended, having allowed just two home runs in 37 innings since July 1st.

Even during his early season struggles, his walk and strikeout rates were solid enough, but the frequent home runs were his undoing. Now, with the ball staying in play far more regularly, he’s been giving his team a strong chance to win, allowing a 2.43 ERA during this stretch. He’s not likely to keep that recent performance up, but his finish to 2013 should be a lot better than the cumulative performance he’s put up to date, and getting solid performance from Haren down the stretch would go a long way to stabilizing a rotation that was supposed to be among the league’s best.

And Haren has done this before. In 2010, the D’Backs got tired of Haren’s home run problem, dumping him on the Angels after he posted a 4.60 ERA over 140 innings. In Anaheim, the home runs went away, and he posted a 2.87 ERA over the rest of the season. It’s easy to watch a pitch give up a lot of dingers and think it’s just because he’s a terrible pitcher, but home run rates can fluctuate wildly and are often not very predictive, so don’t rule out a strong finish from Haren just because he gave up too many long balls in the first half of the year.

The other reason for some optimism? The Nationals offense has been hilariously un-clutch so far this year. Here are their position players batting lines — so that this isn’t skewed by the pitchers feeble attempts to hit — by the various leverage states, with leverage representing the relative importance of the situation based on the score, inning, number of baserunners, and how many outs there are.

Low Leverage: .251/.316/.401, .315 wOBA (13th)
Medium Leverage: .259/.315/.417, .319 woBA (19th)
High Leverage: .203/.269/.322, .255 wOBA (30th)

The Nationals offense hasn’t been great overall, but early in the game or when there aren’t men on base, they’ve been roughly average. However, in important situations with the game on the line, they’ve been completely inept, and no one is even in their same area code of terrible high leverage hitting. The second high leverage offense, by wOBA, is the Chicago Cubs, who check in at .276, 21 points better than the Nationals. The gap between 29th and 30th is larger than the gap between 19th and 29th.

As we detailed a few weeks back when looking at the Tigers un-clutch pitching staff, however, this is the kind of thing that has no real predictive value. There’s no reason to believe that the Nationals hitters just lack the intestinal fortitude to deliver in key situations, especially as essentially the same line-up of hitters ranked 9th in high leverage wOBA a year ago.

Even if the Nationals offense doesn’t get more hits in the next six weeks than they have in the first 4 1/2 months, a simple redistribution of when those hits occur should lead to more runs and more wins. It probably won’t be enough to catch the Braves, but the Nationals have enough talent on hand to make one final run. It won’t be easy to run down the three NL Central contenders and potentially Arizona as well, but the Nationals aren’t dead quite yet. If anyone is going to pull off a miracle comeback this year, it’s probably going to be the team in D.C.

Back in 1981, the Dodgers had a young pitcher named Fernando Valenzuela. He began the season as part of the team’s rotation despite being just 20 years old, and he proceeded to take the sport by storm. Despite being an untested rookie, he led the majors in innings pitched, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts. He was an All-Star, won Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award while finishing 5th in the MVP race. The hysteria around him grew so large that it earned the nickname Fernandomania.

Well, 32 years later, it’s happening again, only because of the anonymity of the 2013 Marlins, this time it’s happening in relative obscurity. Their young ace, Jose Fernandez, deserves a bright spotlight, because he’s having a better age-20 season than Fernando Valenzuela did in 1981. In fact, when we look at age-20 pitchers over the last 50 years, Fernandez’s 2013 season is near the very top.

Here is a table of all starting pitchers in the last 50 years who threw at least 120 innings in their age-20 season, along with their ERA- and FIP-. These numbers are just their respective ERA or FIP relative to the league average in that season, allowing us to better compare pitchers from different offensive eras. Like with ERA, lower is better, so an ERA- or FIP- of 50 would mean that their ERA or FIP was exactly half of the league average that year.

Year, Pitcher, ERA-, FIP-
1985, Dwight Gooden, 44, 59
2013, Jose Fernandez, 69, 75
1981, Fernando Valenzuela, 73, 74
1977, Dave Rozema, 74, 94
1975, Dennis Eckersley, 75, 97

By ERA-, Fernandez has been better than every 20-year-old pitcher since 1964 not named Dwight Gooden. Gooden, of course, had one of the great pitching seasons of all time, and set a standard that is unlikely to ever be matched. Coming in second to Gooden’s 1985 season is nothing to be ashamed of, and and the fact that Fernandez is keeping company with the likes of Gooden and Valenzuela is a testament to how good he has been this year.

And he’s getting better as the year goes on. Fernandez was fantastic in the first half, but since the All-Star break, he’s been on another level. In four starts, he’s allowed a grand total of six runs over 28 innings — a sparkly 1.92 ERA — and it hasn’t come through spectacular defensive support from his teammates. Over those same four starts, Fernandez has racked up 40 strikeouts against just seven walks and a single home run.

In fact, if we reset the list of best age-20 pitching seasons to focus on the three things a pitcher is most in control of — their walks, strikeouts, and home runs — we can see how much better Fernandez has been this year compared to other recent phenoms.

Fernandez has a FIP- of 75, meaning that he’s been 25 percent better than the league average based on his walk rate, strikeout rate, and home run rate. In 2000, Rick Ankiel caught the world by storm with an amazing debut, but his FIP- that year was 88, nowhere near Fernandez’s 2013 mark. The next year, CC Sabathia came up on the scene with a 95 FIP-. In 2004, Zack Greinke put up a 99 FIP-. In 2006, Felix Hernandez posted a FIP- of 90.

Since Fernandomania back in 1981, only Valenzula, Gooden, and now Fernandez have posted a FIP- below Ankiel’s 88, and like the other two, Fernandez is blowing that out of the water. The best pitchers in the game today weren’t anywhere near as good as Fernandez has been in his age-20 season. For reference, Fernandez’s FIP- of 75 is almost a near match for the 73 FIP- that Justin Verlander posted in 2011, the year he won both the AL Cy Young and MVP awards.

Need more evidence of just how incredible Fernandez’s accomplishments at this age are? Okay, how about this one. Matt Harvey has been perhaps the best non-Clayton Kershaw pitcher in baseball this year, and has rightfully garnered significant attention for his breakout season. When Matt Harvey was 20 years old, he posted a 5.40 ERA for the University of North Carolina. Fernandez is destroying major league hitters at the same point where Harvey was struggling against college amateurs.

Put Fernandez on virtually any other team in baseball — okay, maybe not the Astros — and Fernandez is the talk of the sport. However, the Marlins organization isn’t held in the highest esteem after yet another off-season of dumping salary, and so most of the talk about Fernandez’s team centers around when they’ll trade Giancarlo Stanton. However, if we’d put down the trade rumors long enough to watch the Marlins play, we’d find that perhaps their star attraction is no longer the right fielder who hits the ball 500 feet. The Marlins still have Giancarlo Stanton, but this might just be Jose Fernandez’s team now.