For the third time in four years, the Cleveland Indians are coming off a season of at least 93 losses. General manager Chris Antonetti, having already fired manager Manny Acta before the 2012 season ended, spent the winter remaking the face of his club. That meant bringing in two-time World Series champion Terry Francona to manage and bidding farewell to longtime offensive cogs Shin-Soo Choo and Travis Hafner, part of what ended up being a surprisingly active offseason for a small-market team seemingly so far away from contention.

After acquiring Drew Stubbs in the Choo deal and signing Mark Reynolds, Cleveland then forfeited two high draft picks to sign Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher to expensive four-year deals. The new quartet — along with returning bats such as Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana — should make for an immediate upgrade to a Cleveland attack that finished 22nd in runs scored.

Yet for all the effort Antonetti put into reshaping his offense, he seemingly did little to improve a pitching staff that ranked as the least effective run-prevention unit in baseball (non-Colorado division). Needless to say, the offseason strategy has left many confused. Why, after all, make commitments of more than $100 million and two draft picks to improve the offense immediately, but fail to upgrade one of the worst rotations in baseball enough to make a real playoff push?

The answer: Antonetti may not have made a prominent addition to his rotation, but he did help his team take a huge leap forward in preventing runs.

Addition by subtraction

You might be wondering: How is a team that is bringing back the underwhelming trio of Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson and Zach McAllister, and fortifying it with Brett Myers and Scott Kazmir — yes, him — going to be any better than last year’s group? It’s because the responsibility for run prevention doesn’t fall entirely on the pitcher, and the offseason moves haven’t only upgraded the Cleveland offense — they’ve made a large impact on the team’s defense as well. Simply turning more balls into outs should help the pitching staff look better, even if the pitchers aren’t actually performing better.

Advanced defensive statistics remain admittedly imperfect, but they’re light years ahead of the generally useless fielding percentage, and they all agree on one thing — Cleveland’s 2012 defense was one of the worst in baseball. Whether you prefer defensive runs saved (28th, at minus-51 runs), UZR/150 (30th at minus-57 runs) or just about anything else, the team’s fielding was ranked poorly. It isn’t just a single-year problem, either; the Indians haven’t ranked above fourth worst in UZR/150 since 2008.

Extra outs in the field pile up on a team’s arms, and it’s not difficult to see how that affected Jimenez and Masterson, the only two Cleveland starters to throw at least 150 innings last season. Each ended up with ERA marks (5.40 for Jimenez, 4.93 for Masterson) that exceeded their FIP (5.04 for Jimenez, 4.16 for Masterson) by a considerable amount. In fact, six of the seven Cleveland pitchers to make more than five starts ended up with an ERA higher than their FIP, indicating a defense that was not making the plays it needed to. The pitching staff wasn’t good, but the defense made it seem even worse.

Taking the staff as a whole, only the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers ended up with larger differences between their ERA and FIP than Cleveland’s did. It’s a serious problem, and it’s one that might have still existed even if Antonetti had spent more of his time on improving his pitching.

Instead, the new-look Indians’ defensive corps is in position to actually help their staff rather than hinder it, and that’s in part simply due to addition by subtraction. Choo and Shelley Duncan were the two corner outfielders with the most playing time last season, and both were subpar defenders; Choo in particular rated as being especially poor (minus-17 UZR). If Antonetti had merely replaced them with average fielders, that would be an upgrade, but he has done much better than that — the 2013 Indians are likely to be one of the only teams in baseball playing three center field quality defenders in their outfield.

The new crew

Bourn is the real prize here, because he’s one of the few players universally acclaimed in the field by both traditional methods (two Gold Gloves) and advanced stats (DRS and UZR/150 each ranked him as 2012’s best defensive outfielder). DRS has Bourn has saving 24 runs on his own, and that alone would take a major chunk out of the 51-run defensive deficit the team saw last year.

The addition of Bourn also creates a domino effect that moves last year’s center fielder, Michael Brantley, over to left. Brantley ranked as a slightly below-average center fielder, and he should be more effective as he slides down the defensive spectrum to a less demanding position. When Brantley last played left field regularly, logging 558 1/3 innings there in 2011, both DRS and UZR/150 considered him above-average. He’ll look even better this year when compared to Duncan.

Rather than the subpar Choo in right field, Stubbs figures to see most of the playing time there. Despite hitting only .213/.277/.333 with Ohio’s other team, Stubbs still was worth 1.3 wins above replacement simply because of his excellent defense and baserunning (30 steals in 37 attempts). Like Brantley, he’ll be moving to a corner after having been a regular center fielder, and he’ll be a massive improvement over Choo.

Due to Stubbs’ huge platoon split, Swisher could see time in right field as well, but he’s expected to get most of his playing time at first base. That’s for the best, not only because it keeps the defensively challenged Jason Giambi and Reynolds as the designated hitter platoon they really ought to be, but because Swisher is a capable defender as well. If Swisher is even average at first base, that’s an improvement; despite the sterling defensive reputation of Swisher’s predecessor, Casey Kotchman, the metrics indicate he has been declining with the glove for several years now, posting a negative DRS and UZR for three straight years.

As for the rest of the infield, the Indians return the same primary starters who finished last season. Cabrera is not a good defensive shortstop, and Lonnie Chisenhall proved to be rough around the edges in limited play, but Kipnis was about average. Considering the inexperience and youth of Chisenhall and Kipnis, there’s the potential for improvement there, and Mike Aviles should take over the Jack Hannahan role. At the least, the infield — while not a strength — isn’t likely to be worse than last year’s version, and could be slightly better. Masterson, as a ground ball pitcher, stands to gain the most from any improvement here.

Again, advanced defensive metrics have not yet attained perfection, and so it’s reasonable if one were to quibble with some of the exact numbers. But the idea that an outfield of Bourn, Brantley and Stubbs comprises one of the best defensive groups in the game more than passes the sniff test. For a team that needed all the help it could get in preventing runs from scoring, an improved defense that will help every pitcher on the staff could be even more effective than having made a single big splash on the pitching market.

The Baltimore Orioles shocked the baseball world by winning 93 games and beating the favored Texas Rangers in the wild-card playoff last year, breaking a streak of 14 consecutive losing seasons that dated back to the Cal Ripken Jr. era. The AL East has long been a brutal division to compete in, but the usual powers in Boston and New York have finally begun to show signs of vulnerability, and Tampa Bay has to overcome the losses of James Shields and B.J. Upton. At long last, the timing would have appeared right this winter for the Orioles to capitalize on their success and take advantage of what might be a small window of opportunity.

That’s clearly the way the Toronto Blue Jays saw things, making big splashes in trades with the Miami Marlins and New York Mets, but Baltimore general manager Dan Duquette chose a different, much quieter path. The Orioles didn’t sign a single new player to a major league contract this winter, and even the team’s trading activity merely netted them bit players like Yamaico Navarro and Trayvon Robinson.

The lack of action was most notable in the team’s unstable rotation, where 12 different pitchers made at least two starts for the team last season, and only Wei-Yin Chen made more than 20. Rather than attempting to import a stabilizing presence, Duquette decided to stay with his various internal options for the rotation.

Despite the playoff berth, the Orioles outscored their opponents by only seven runs — good for an expected record of 82-80 — and much of the 2012 magic in Baltimore was built on a record-setting 29-9 record in one-run games. That’s good for a fantastic story for a fan base which desperately needed one, but it’s not indicative of their true talent level and almost certainly not sustainable going forward.

For this reason, Duquette has been criticized for not making a splash, But when you examine the three courses of action he had this winter, he made the right choice.

Course No. 1. Trade young talent for a big-time starting pitcher.

This is the largely unpopular route Dayton Moore took in Kansas City, cashing in star-in-the-making Wil Myers and three other decent-to-good prospects to add Shields and Wade Davis to his rotation. Duquette could have done the same, but it would likely have cost him stud prospects like pitcher Dylan Bundy  one of only three prospects to top Myers on Keith Law’s Top 100 — or infielder Manny Machado, each of whom made their MLB debuts in their age-19 seasons last year.

Had Duquette made those players available, he certainly could have swung a deal for a Shields or a comparable starter, but the long-term cost would have far outweighed the present benefits for a team that isn’t as close as hometown fans may believe.

2. Spend a lot of money (and potentially a first-round draft pick) on a free agent.

If you figure that the Orioles were never going to be in the race for Zack Greinke and that lesser choices like Joe Blanton or Kevin Correia weren’t enough of an upgrade to matter, the midrange market for impact starting pitching was exceptionally thin this winter. Other than Greinke, only two pitchers who moved to new teams signed for more than $15 million total — Ryan Dempster with the Red Sox and Edwin Jackson with the Cubs. Kyle Lohse remains available, of course, but in addition to being an imperfect fit for the AL East, he would have cost Baltimore its top draft pick since the Cardinals made him a qualifying offer. This is the toughest part of the market to find value in.

3. Stand pat.

This is the path the Orioles have taken, conserving their resources, and it makes sense because Duquette has no shortage of intriguing candidates to fill out his rotation. Only Chen and veteran Jason Hammel, who was surprisingly effective before going down with a knee injury, appear to have solid holds on jobs. Manager Buck Showalter has indicated that righties Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman are in line to get the next two, but it’s difficult to envision a scenario where both keep those positions all season.

Gonzalez was a 28-year-old rookie who impressed with a 3.25 ERA that wasn’t backed up by a 4.38 FIP or a less-than-stellar minor league track record. Tillman’s 2.93 ERA looked even better, but mediocre peripherals along with a .221 BABIP gave him a 4.25 FIP and make it unlikely he prevents runs as effectively again. In Tillman’s case, even reports of improved velocity may not be accurate, since it was skewed largely by a spike in his first game of the season that didn’t last.

Battling for the final spot — and for those that inevitably open up during the season — is a cast of seemingly thousands. The Orioles have former prospects who haven’t quite put it together yet (Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Steve Johnson, and Brian Matusz), they have veterans trying to prove they can stay healthy and effective (Tommy Hunter, Jair Jurrjens, and Tsuyoshi Wada), and both groups should be looking over their shoulders at the next wave knocking on the door (Bundy and Kevin Gausman).

This is where the Orioles can look for breakout potential, because the first four starters are unlikely to provide a whole lot more than we’ve already seen. It may seem odd to say about a pitcher coming off a 6.20 ERA season, but Arrieta might be the most likely of this group to come alive and provide value. In his age-26 campaign, he increased his strikeout rate to 8.56 per nine innings while also lowering his walk rate to 2.75 per nine, good numbers that continued the steps forward he’d made there in 2011. The resulting 3.11 strikeout-to-walk ratio was better than successful starters like Dempster, Matt Garza, Jackson, Mat Latos and Brandon McCarthy, and the upward trend in that metric is generally a good indicator of a pitcher doing something right.

Arrieta turned 27 this week, and scouts still love his multiple fastballs and plus secondary pitches, so the conditions are there for him to shave that ERA number significantly.

By this time next year, or perhaps even later in 2013, it’s quite possible that stud prospects Bundy and Gausman each occupy spots in the Baltimore rotation. Duquette knows that they are the future of the rotation, so there was no sense spending a lot of money (or talent) to bring in guys who might not be much better than their in-house options.

The Orioles need to sort out once and for all which of their many current starting options are going to join Bundy and Gausman, be a part of their bullpen or move on entirely. It may not be the most popular decision to stand still, but acquiring someone like an Aaron Harang only serves to ensure mediocrity and prevent young players like Arrieta from proving they’re part of the future.

Given the options available, Dan Duquette made the right decision for Baltimore’s long-term success — even if, in the present, it’s hard for fans to swallow.

Every year, it seems, the New York Yankees put together a monster offense. They get on base (#1 in MLB in OBP since 2008) and they hit for power (#1 in both SLG and HRs), so it’s no big surprise that they’ve scored a league best 4,234 runs over the last five years. Their 1,092 home runs during that span put them more than 100 dingers ahead of the Rangers, who have the second highest total among MLB clubs in the last five seasons. The Yankees more than have lived up to their Bronx Bombers nickname.

However, an interesting thing happens when you look at each team’s offensive performance during those last five years and exclude the at-bats that have been given to pitchers, leveling the playing field between AL and NL clubs to a large degree. When you just look at the results each team has gotten from their hitters, the St. Louis Cardinals emerge as the Yankees of the National League.

The totals that include their pitchers at-bats – a .270/.338/.419 slash line, a .331 wOBA, and 805 home runs — don’t stack up against New York’s numbers, but eliminating those at-bats from players who are not paid to hit makes a big difference. Just focusing on the results from their position players, the Cardinals team average jumps to .278 (#1 in MLB), their OBP jumps to .348 (#1 in MLB, edging out New York’s .347), and their slugging percentage jumps to .433 (#7 in MLB).

That slugging percentage doesn’t keep pace with the Yankees .449 mark, but then again, the Cardinals don’t play half their games in a park that was designed with home run derbies in mind. In fact, Busch Stadium annually grades out as one of the stingiest parks in all of baseball for home runs, depressing homers by about nine percent since it opened. Yankee Stadium and it’s short RF porch inflates home runs by 11 percent, for comparison.

Once you adjust for these park factors, the Cardinals hitters have actually performed almost identically to the Yankees hitters during this last five year stretch. The Yankees hitter’s 113 wRC+ — which adjusts overall offensive numbers relative to a team’s home park and the average offensive levels of the leagues each team plays in — is still #1 in baseball, but just barely ahead of St. Louis’ 112, and both teams stand well ahead of the rest of the pack during that stretch.

If we repet this measurement after the 2013 season, it’s quite possible that St. Louis will stand as the best overall offense of the last five years, because while the Yankees line-up looks like it’s going to take a step back due to aging and injuries, the Cardinals offense just continues to get better and better. In fact, there’s a case to be made that St. Louis’ 2013 line-up is one of their deepest and most impressive in recent memory.

The anchors of the team that posted a 107 wRC+– excluding pitchers, that number jumps to 114, tied with NYY for #1 in baseball — last year return, and while Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran are getting older, there’s still some significant areas where the Cardinals offense could be even better than they were a year ago. For starters, Allan Craig played in just 119 games last year, so a full season from Craig could add an additional 100 or so plate appearances from one of the league’s best hitters, many of which were given to an ineffective Matt Adams last year.

However, the biggest potential upgrade could come at second base. Last year, St. Louis’ second baseman hit just .240/.309/.363, with only San Francisco and Colorado getting a lower OPS from the keystone position among NL clubs. Most of the Cardinals at-bats at second base last year went to Skip Schumker, Daniel Descalso, and Tyler Greene, and Greene and Schumaker won’t be back with the Cardinals for 2013. Descalso is still penciled in for some regular work at second base, but in an ideal situation, he’ll spend most of his time as a defensive replacement and part-time player in 2013, because the Cardinals are working with Matt Carpenter — primarily a third baseman in his career to date — on making the shift to second base in order to get his bat in the line-up.

Carpenter has played a grand total of 18 innings at second base in his career, but the Cardinals had some success converting Schumaker to the position a few years ago, and they believe that Carpenter has the physical skills to become adequate at the position as well. If he makes the transition, having a second baseman with a career 120 wRC+ would be a huge boon to St. Louis’ already potent offense. Carpenter might not field the position well enough to be an everyday player at the start of the season, but if he hits and doesn’t embarrass himself, it will be hard to keep him out of the line-up, and St. Louis’ other hitters are so good that second base is the only job he has a chance to win.

Having too many good hitters is a nice problem to have, and allows you to do things like experiment with a third baseman at second base, but even with moving Carpenter around, the Cardinals still don’t have room for all of their offensive talents. Oscar Taveras — just rated by Keith Law as the #2 prospect in baseball — is a prodigious hitting prospect that draws comparisons to the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, and yet, there is nowhere for him to play barring an injury. With Beltran and Holliday in the corners and Jon Jay locking down center field, the Cardinals don’t have room for a hitter who destroyed Double-A as a 20-year-old last year, and projects as an above average Major League hitter right now according to Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections.

The Cardinals have some pitching questions, and Rafael Furcal’s continuing elbow problems highlight their lack of depth at shortstop, but St. Louis has the deepest group of offensive talent in the Major Leagues right now, and the best hitting prospect in baseball sitting in their farm system waiting for an opportunity. They might not have a cool nickname based on their offensive prowess, but 2013 may very well signal the year where the sport begins to recognize that St. Louis is where the best offense in baseball resides.

When the Los Angeles Dodgers retained reliever Brandon League in October by guaranteeing him $22.5 million over three years, with the chance to earn an additional $10 million in incentives, it was a move that was largely panned in the baseball world.

League is a good-but-not-great reliever in a world where expensive multiyear contracts for nonelite relievers almost invariably end poorly for the team. Over the past four seasons, League’s 3.51 ERA is nearly identical to that of Matt Belisle (making $4.1 million this year for Colorado) and Brandon Lyon (with the Mets for one year and just $750,000).

Why? Because League saved 37 games with the Seattle Mariners in 2011 and has earned the closer label. The excessive money may not bother the obscenely wealthy Dodgers as much as it would other teams, but general manager Ned Colletti compounded the decision by declaring that League would be the team’s closer in 2013 despite the presence of the undeniably more talented Kenley Jansen.

This thinking is par for the course at Chavez Ravine. Last year, Javy Guerra began the season as the closer even though he is inferior to Jansen, and he lost the job to Jansen, who lost it to League when he had to miss a month with a cardiac issue.

While it’s unclear if the Dodgers actually think League is better than Jansen, what is clear is that they are better off with League in the ninth and Jansen in a setup role.

It’s long been a sabermetric principle that managers shouldn’t preserve their best relievers for the ninth inning with a lead, because it’s often not the most important moment in a game. There’s clearly more danger in a reliever trying to hold down a one-run lead with two on in the eighth against the heart of a lineup than on a closer starting a clean inning in the ninth against the 7-8-9 hitters, but reliever usage doesn’t reflect that.

The reason why is that it takes the right circumstances to make it work. For example, if a team has an established veteran closer — think a Jonathan Papelbon type — telling him he’s being moved to the eighth can be seen as a demotion. If a club has only one above-average reliever, it’s understandably going to be difficult for a manager to keep him out of the ninth for long if the closer is blowing games and the media is breathing down the skipper’s neck.

The Dodger combo of Jansen and League just so happens to be perfectly situated to make this work, even if it seems odd to keep the better pitcher away from save chances. Jansen is a young player who did well as a closer but hardly had the standing to be untouchable. If not for that missed time, we might not be having this conversation, because League was terrible in his first weeks as a Dodger and posed no threat to Jansen otherwise.

However, after some side work with Dodgers coaches Rick Honeycutt and Ken Howell, League allowed just one run in his final 21 games, converting all six save opportunities in Jansen’s absence. When Jansen returned Sept. 20, manager Don Mattingly chose to work him back in slowly as League’s setup man. (He was still excellent, striking out 13 in 8 1/3 innings.)

That sequence of events is what led Colletti and Mattingly to determine that Jansen should continue to set up League, though it’s probably more of a happy accident in the “it wasn’t broke last September, so don’t fix it” vein than it is any indication that the team is suddenly thinking especially sabermetrically.

Whether it was on purpose or not, it makes sense. League can be a solid reliever — perhaps more than solid if the mechanical change means he can maintain that excellent September performance — yet he’s also a flawed one. Using Baseball Reference’s Leverage Index, we can see how he has performed over the past three years in situations deemed as low, medium and high leverage (see table).

In each of the past three seasons, League has been hit harder when the most pressure is on. Jansen, by comparison, has continued to blow away batters no matter whether the situation is tense (.465 career OPS against in high-leverage situations) or less critical (.452 career OPS against in low-leverage situations). He has also been effective against both lefty and righty hitters, unlike League, who has shown a massive platoon split over his career, limiting the tactical situations a team would want to use him in the first place.

It’s clear that Jansen is the man the team should want on the mound in the most critical situations, and while it may seem counterintuitive to have a reliever who performs better in lower-pressure situations as the closer, it’s important to remember again that bases empty in the ninth inning is often less important to winning a game than two on and one out in the eighth.

There’s no question that Jansen is the more effective reliever, a statement that even League would probably agree with, and he may yet end up back in the ninth if League’s inconsistent history returns. Yet as long as League can hold things together as the closer, Jansen will provide the Dodgers one of baseball’s most dangerous bullpen weapons in the most important situations — even if he’s not the one actually collecting the saves.

The Houston Astros are coming to the American League West. The Houston Astros current Major League roster looks like one of the worst we’ve seen in recent memory, as the team is currently in the midst of a total organizational overhaul. The Astros are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, and their addition to the AL West means that the schedules for Texas, Anaheim, Oakland, and Seattle will be easier this year than they were last year.

Just how much will playing one of the league’s worst teams 19 times help the AL West contenders? Well, first off, we need to know where those games are going to come from.

Let’s use the Angels as an example of the scheduling adjustments that have been made to make 19 games against the Astros work. MLB wanted to preserve the same number of intra-division match-ups, so the Angels are still going to play the Rangers, Mariners, and A’s a combined 57 times, just as they did a year ago. To add 19 match-ups against Houston, the league had to trim a portion of the games against teams from other divisions. The count of where those cuts were made to create 19 additional games against their new divisional rival:

Team 2013 2012 Difference
Detroit 6 10 4
Tampa Bay 7 10 3
Minnesota 6 9 3
Cleveland 6 9 3
Baltimore 7 9 2
New York 7 9 2
Kansas City 7 9 2
Toronto 7 8 1
Chicago 7 8 1
Interleague 20 18 -2

The Angels will now play 21 fewer games against the AL Central and AL East, with the extra two games that were cut from those teams going to additional interleague match-ups. Here, you can see how it’s not just playing a poor Houston team that could be a potential boon to the Angels, but it’s dumping a decent chunk of their games against some of their toughest AL competition. Last year, the Angels played 29 games against Detroit, Tampa Bay and New York, going 10-19 in the process. This year, they will play just 20 games against those three teams.

But, of course, this isn’t just a single sided coin. In addition to getting fewer games against the Tigers, Yankees, and Rays, they also lose a series against Minnesota, who might challenge the Astros in the race for the #1 pick in the 2014 draft, and lose some games against the mid-to-lower-tier AL clubs as well. Clearly, though, the games being shifted to match-ups with the Astros are coming from a group of games that were against much stiffer competition previously.

To take this a step further, we can make an educated guess as to just how many additional wins we might expect the Angels (and the Rangers, Mariners, and A’s) to get from this new schedule compared to what they might have been expected to win under the old format. The Astros won 34% of their games last year, and that was with some decent performances from since-traded players such as Jed Lowrie, Wandy Rodriguez, and Wilton Lopez. Even with some improvement from a few young players and some carryovers, it’s hard to see the Astros being a significantly improved team in 2013. If we project a slight improvement — it’s really hard to lose 107 games, even when you’re rebuilding — we might generously call them a 60 win team in 2013, which means that they would be expected to win 37% of their games next year.

However, because we believe that the Angels are a better than average team, the Astros shouldn’t win 37% of their match-ups against Anaheim. By using a neat little mathematical tool developed by Bill James called log5, we can estimate the outcome of those 19 Angels-Astros match-ups, however. If we assume that the Angels have the talent level of a 90 win team — that is, they would win 55.5% of their games — then we’d expect the Angels to beat the Astros in 68% of their head to head match-ups, which translates to a 13-6 expected record in those games.

How would they have done under the old system? Well, if we look at the overall strength of the competition that they are playing fewer games against, we note that they are skewed towards above average teams, mainly thanks to the reduction in games against Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New York. Overall, the same methodology would have expected the Angels to go just 10-9 under the old schedule, so playing the Astros is a three win bump for Anaheim.

The math is essentially the same for each of the other three AL West incumbents, even teams with less imposing rosters like Seattle. While the Mariners might not win as many games against the Astros as the Angels, Rangers, and A’s, they’ll still get the benefit of losing fewer games against the AL East squads, and so the relative benefit comes out to three additional wins for them as well.

Three wins probably won’t be enough to push the Mariners into the playoff race, but it could very well be a decisive margin in determining the American League Wild Card teams. For Texas, Anaheim, and Oakland, the arrival of the Astros might give them enough of a cushion to sneak out a wild card berth, even if their rosters might not stack up against Toronto or Tampa Bay on paper. Thanks to the unbalanced schedule, it’s not always about being the best team, but simply being the team that takes the most advantage of inferior opponents.

When the Blue Jays pulled off their blockbuster trade with the Marlins, the focus immediately went to the two pitchers in the deal, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle. Toronto’s rotation was terrible in 2012, and their starters were one of the main reasons the team allowed 784 runs last season, more than all but five other MLB clubs. Johnson brings the ability to dominate when healthy, while Buehrle is the safest bet in MLB for 200 average or better innings. With one fell swoop, the Marlins rebuilt a battered rotation.

However, there’s a secondary storyline hiding under the Blue Jays off-season, and the foundation for their 2013 offensive identity was laid in that same transaction. With that move — and a few more additions later in the off-season — the Blue Jays have given themselves the opportunity to run more than any team has in recent years.

Everyone knows that Jose Reyes is one of the fastest players in baseball, and uses his speed to greatly enhance his overall value. In fact, over the last 10 years, Reyes has accumulated the sixth most runs from baserunning of any player in MLB, despite missing large chunks of time due to various injuries. However, on the Blue Jays roster of sprinters, Reyes might be the third most dangerous baserunning weapon.

In order to get a better idea of seasonal baserunning value, we can take the amount of runs a player has created on the bases and prorate it to 600 plate appearances, which is approximately one full season worth of playing time for a regular position player. Over the last 10 years, the most valuable runner per 600 plate appearances (with a 1,500 PA minimum to keep the sample size reasonably large) has been Brett Gardner, who checks in at +10.3 runs per season. Three spots behind Gardner is Blue Jays outfielder Rajai Davis, who has averaged +8.3 runs per season on the bases. Two spots behind Davis? Newly acquired utility infielder Emilio Bonifacio, who came from Miami with Reyes in the mega-deal.

That’s right – the 2013 Blue Jays are going to feature two of the six most effective baserunners in baseball over the last decade, and neither one is named Jose Reyes. Reyes, if you’re wondering, checks in at +5.8 runs per 600 plate appearances, coming in 16th overall during the last 10 years. It doesn’t stop with Reyes, either, as the Blue Jays also imported infielder Maicer Izturis (+3.9 runs per 600 PA, #40) over the winter, and are retaining center fielder Colby Rasmus (+3.2 runs per 600 PA, #60) as well. And, if Rasmus either struggles or gets injured, the team would likely call up 22-year-old speedster Anthony Gose, who put up a staggering +5.1 runs of baserunning value in just 189 plate appearances as a rookie last year.

Even assuming a reduced role for Davis with Melky Cabrera — an above average but unspectacular baserunner — taking over as the regular left fielder, we can still project him as a force on the bases. After all, even on days when Davis isn’t starting, he’ll likely be used as a late inning pinch-runner, and Davis is absolutely fearless as a base stealer. Last year, Davis was in position to steal a base 118 times, and he ran on 59 of those, or exactly half of his opportunities. No other player in baseball ran even close to that frequency. Only five other players attempted a steal in at least 1/3 of their opportunities last season, and two of them — Gose (35%) and Bonifacio (33%) are now Davis’ teammates.

Aggressive baserunning has largely gone out of vogue in baseball over the last 20 years, as the increased offensive environment that began in 1994 led to a change in the calculus of how often a player should run. When hits and especially home runs are plentiful, the value of advancing into scoring position is reduced — the runner is more likely to score from first base, after all — and the cost of making an out is higher, as it prevents more batters from coming to bat. With the reduction in offense throughout the sport, runs are now more scarce, and the tide has shifted back towards increasing aggressiveness on the bases.

During the offensive heyday at the turn of the century, the break-even rate for base stealing was around 70%, with runners succeeding less often than that not adding any real value to their teams through base stealing, no matter how many bases they stole. Last year, it was down to about 66%, as outs simply aren’t as harmful as they used to be, and the potential run gained by getting into scoring position is more critical to winning than it was when every game ended 10-9.

The Blue Jays appear to be extremely aware of the rising importance of baserunning, and have built a roster to take advantage of a more aggressive style of play than we’ve seen in some time. Over the last 10 years, no team has created more value on the bases than the 2010 Tampa Bay Rays, who checked in at +34 runs overall, led by Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, and Evan Longoria, and also featured quality running role players like Jason Bartlett and Sean Rodriguez. That team won 96 games and finished at the top of the American League East.

This Blue Jays team could very well challenge that Rays team for the best baserunning club we’ve seen, depending on how much playing time Davis, Bonifacio, and Gose end up getting this season. Even with Davis and Bonifacio serving as part-time players to begin the season and Gose likely ticketed for Triple-A, this is still easily the fastest team in baseball, and the Blue Jays speed is likely to be a factor in every game they play this season.

Every year during spring training, teams are doing more than more than soaking up sun and trying to cut out early to get in 18 holes. They’re actually working on their games, and often that means working on areas in which they were deficient a year ago. In that vein, let’s take a look at five would-be contenders and the areas in which they should be focusing this spring. At a certain point, teams and players are who they are, but hope springs eternal, and hard work does pay dividends.

Detroit’s defense: It’s no secret that Detroit’s defense left something to be desired last season. It didn’t stop them from reaching the World Series, but that doesn’t mean that Detroit should rest on its laurels. While the Tigers had a middling .983 fielding percentage, advanced metrics — be it UZR, DRS or Defensive Efficiency — all painted the Tigers as a bottom feeder with the leather. The transactions they have made should make them a bit better this season. Omar Infante is a slight upgrade over Ramon Santiago, but mostly in the sense that manager Jim Leyland may be more comfortable playing Infante every day, while Santiago never achieved that status. Assuming that father time didn’t catch up with Torii Hunter this offseason, he should be a big upgrade over Brennan Boesch in right field. But it’s not all wine and roses. Likely starting left fielder Andy Dirks may have good range, but his arm leaves a lot to be desired. And then there is still Miguel Cabrera at third base. Among the 13 qualified third basemen last season, no one posted a worse UZR than did Cabrera. In fact, of the 124 qualified players last season, Cabrera’s -10 UZR ranked 115^th. To be fair, his defense could have been a lot worse than it was, and he has worked hard to transition from first base back to third base. But he needs to keep working.

Boston’s walk rate: When Red Sox fans used to complain that the team’s games were too long, the main culprit was the team’s great walk rate. Last season, it was a different story. After nine years with one of the top walk rates in the game — from 2003 to 2011, no team had a better walk rate than Boston — the Sawx’s walk rate fell all the way to 29^th-best in the game. There are two reasons to think that won’t continue in 2013. First, new recruits Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli and David Ross are exceedingly patient. Second, while Boston’s non-pitcher walk rate fell from nine percent in 2011 to seven percent in ’12, they still saw about the same number of pitches — their 3.89 pitches seen per plate appearance ranked third in the majors, which was in line with the recent past. The team did lose patient hitters in Kevin Youkilis and Cody Ross, but they are poised to once again claim a top-notch walk rate.

Atlanta’s hitting against breaking balls: In looking at the Pitchf/x breakdowns of how teams fared against each pitch last season, one thing sticks out — on a per 100 pitches basis, the Braves were the only National League team in the bottom five against both curveballs and sliders last season. Atlanta had a middling offense — seventh in the National League in runs scored, and 17^th overall — and this inefficiency was a likely culprit. Looking to 2013, the situation may not improve all that much. The only Braves’ regulars who posted positive rates against both curves and sliders last season were Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, and neither of them will suit up for Atlanta in 2013.  On the positive side of the ledger is that Michael Bourn was well below average against both pitches, and he is also history. Andrelton Simmons may help, as he was leaps and bounds better against breaking balls than were Tyler Pastornicky and Paul Janish. Then again, Simmons doesn’t even have 1,500 professional plate appearances yet, and less than 200 at the major league level, so let’s hold off on crowing on him just yet. The Upton brothers may help, as for their careers both have posted positive numbers against curveballs, and Justin Upton has fared well against sliders as well, but neither has been impeccably good against the pitches. B.J. Upton had been a monster against curveballs until last year. Another negative may be at third base, where neither Chris Johnson nor Juan Francisco are downright Pedro Cerrano-esque. The Braves would do well to set the pitching machine to deliver a bevy of breaking balls this spring.

Oakland’s starting pitcher strikeout rate: Last season, only one team’s starters struck out less than 17 percent of the hitters they faced and still posted a winning record. That’s right, it was the A’s. The mainly no-name crew of castoffs, rookies and Brandon McCarthy didn’t pump strike three with enough regularity. Often unable to generate swinging strikes — their swinging strike percentage ranked a dismal 10^th in the American League and 24^th overall — Oakland had to rely on its defense more than most. Since they imported Chris Young, they will have even more defensive depth this season, but it would be nice if they could give their fielders a break more frequently. The team’s K% should come up a little naturally. The four starters at the bottom of their K% list from a year ago — McCarthy, Bartolo Colon, Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey — are all either history or will miss a significant chunk of the season. The three departed pitchers — Godfrey, McCarthy and Ross — combined for more than 20 percent of their starter’s innings, and all posted a K% south of 16 percent. On the other hand, their removal in and of itself isn’t going to make the A’s elite. For them to make real progress in this regard, the team needs their youngsters to take steps forward, particularly Jarrod Parker and Dan Straily. Both struck out at least 20 percent in every one of their minor league stops, but did not reach that threshold last season in the majors. It’s reasonable to expect improvement from both — both posted swinging strike percentages that were above league average — but they’ve got to go out and show it.

Yankees’ starting pitcher HR/FB rate: Last season, only the Orioles and Yankees posted a HR/FB (fly ball) rate in the bottom 10 and posted winning records, but while the O’s should get a different mix of pitchers (more Chris Tillman and Jason Hammel, less Tommy Hunter) the Yankees’ mix figures to be fairly similar — CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova, with David Phelps first off the bench as spot starter. These six started 88% of the team’s games last season, and all six posted a HR/FB above the AL average of 12.3%. This deficiency is understandable when the team is in the Bronx, as the corners of Yankee Stadium are fairly bandbox-ish. But only three teams allowed homers at a higher rate on the road than did the Yankees, and among starting pitchers, only Hughes’ HR/FB dipped under league average. The tendency to allow big flies certainly didn’t hurt New York’s chances of reaching the postseason, but any Yankees fan who hasn’t yet repressed the memories of Game 4 of last year’s American League Championship Series will remember that part of the reason New York was broomed was that they allowed four homers to Detroit in the decisive fourth game. This may prove to be a blip on the radar — the dismal 2012 HR/FB rates for Hughes, Kurosa, Nova and Sabathia were all career worsts — but just in case, the Yanks may want to make keeping the ball in the yard a priority this spring.

When the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke this offseason, he gave them — along with lefty Clayton Kershaw — one of the top front-ends of a rotation in baseball. Together, the duo may have one of the best one-two punches in the game, a duo truly capable of winning four games in a seven-game series. Are they the best in the game? Let’s take a look.

First, a couple of parameters. I selected the top two of each rotation based on the player’s projected WAR totals, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS system, which has just finished running over at FanGraphs. I also took the combined WAR of each duo for the past three seasons. I use three seasons, because any one season can be subject to small sample size or statistical flukes, so when possible — as it is here — three years makes for a better sample. However, WAR isn’t the end-all be-all, so we want a couple of other metrics as well. A pitcher’s peripheral statistics, such as strikeouts and walks, often hold a great deal of predictive value, but rather than dividing them by each other, as K/BB does, it’s better to subtract the two percentages from each other. This not only gives it more predictive value (which you can read more about here) but it also makes more sense intuitively, as you are using the same sample in your denominator – total batters faced. Finally, we want to have a projected rate stat to account for the fact that not all pitchers are projected to have the same workload (for instance, ZiPS projects Gio Gonzalez to toss 200 innings this year, but projects Clayton Kershaw to toss 221.2, a large difference), so we’ll use the ZiPS projected ERA for each duo. By using all four of these metrics, we can get a more complete picture of how the duos have performed, and how they may be expected to perform. In doing so, five duos emerged.

5. Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Weaver and Wilson have been very productive over the past three years, and likely will be again this season. Both rank in the top 10 in WAR over the past three seasons, placing them in the top five as a duo. But where they fail to reach the top is in their strikeout and walk ability. Collectively, their strikeout and walk rates are middling, though the walk rate can be laid at the feet of Wilson much more so than Weaver. Though Weaver doesn’t walk many, he does a poor job of keeping the ball on the ground, but thanks to his ballpark and outfield defense, this isn’t the issue for him that it would be on a different team.

4. Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals

Strasburg is at once the reason to be wary and optimistic for the Nationals. There isn’t a starter in baseball who has a better FIP- projection than Strasburg’s 58 FIP- heading into this season. But Strasburg also has the thinnest track record, thanks to his Tommy John surgery. As a result, he has a fairly thin track record — just 251.1 innings pitched in the majors, and not one season with 30 starts. On the other side is Gonzalez, who made a lot of strides last season but still walked batters at a rate above that of league average. The two may top this chart a year from now, but at the moment it is prudent to exercise a little caution.

3. Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers

Last season was Scherzer’s coming out party, as the young righty — who was part of the famed three-way trade that also involved Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy — saw his strikeout rate skyrocket. Instead of making contact on more than 78 percent of the pitches they swung at, opposing hitters were only able to connect on 74 percent of Scherzer’s pitches in 2012, a number that was good for fourth in the game among qualified starters. As for Verlander, he essentially duplicated his Cy Young Award-winning season, though the instinct of writers who wanted to want to craft a different narrative led them to select David Price for the honor instead. Still, few are going to do it better than Verlander, who ZiPS projects to have the most WAR among starting pitchers this season.

2. Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

You could make the argument that Halladay deserves to be placed here rather than Hamels, but coming off a down year, Hamels has a higher projected WAR than does Halladay. And certainly Hamels is no slouch, as among the number-two starters as defined by this exercise, only Mat Latos has a higher projected WAR for 2013. Lee and Hamels form the most efficient pairing. Both few waste bullets, particularly Lee, whose 3.9 % walk rate is easily the game’s lowest over the past three years. Over those past three years, they have been the most valuable duo, and there is little reason to expect much of a drop-off this season. Lee received attention for his drop in wins last season, but if there’s any reason for worry among Phillies fans, it’s that both his K rate and swinging strike percentage fell last season. But he also was able to limit his walks more, which dampened most of the negative effect.

1. Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke – Los Angeles Dodgers

Indeed the Dodgers’ new duo is the last team on the list. No pair of pitchers that a team can put together can match the 10.4 WAR that ZiPS projects Kershaw and Greinke to achieve this season. The Nats might come close if Strasburg were pegged for more innings pitched, but it remains to be seen if the nanny state Washington placed him in will lead to the 200-inning season they expect from him. Like the Phillies, Los Angeles has a pair of very efficient pitchers. It’s become de rigeur to doubt Greinke, but he has been worth at least four wins in each of the past five seasons, giving him an exemplary track record. It’s that track record that makes him more bankable than Scherzer or Strasburg, who have just a single season of domination under their belts. And while Kershaw didn’t match his brilliant 2011 season in the same fashion that Verlander did, he joins Verlander as one of two pitchers to notch a WAR projection north of six wins.

We can probably eliminate the Angels from the discussion, as well as teams like the Giants, Yankees and Rays from the best one-two punch discussion, but Washington, Detroit, Philly and the Dodgers are all so talented that picking one team as definitively the best is akin to splitting hairs. Having said that, the Dodgers may have the best balance of past track record and future projection, and that puts them in position to tip the scales in their favor. LA may not have the best overall rotation, but with Kershaw and Greinke, they are going to be tough to beat.

Fans of the Washington Nationals have much to be excited about, because a team that already won 98 games last year looks like it could be geared to be even better in 2013. This year’s edition won’t have to worry about shutting down Stephen Strasburg, and they surprised many by adding Rafael Soriano to what was already a solid bullpen.

They can expect improved outfield performance given that Bryce Harper has a year of experience under his belt, Jayson Werth has returned from yet another injury — don’t forget, he was excellent (.312/.394/.441) in 52 starts after coming back last year — and they’ve finally filled the leadoff/center field hole they’ve been trying to patch for years by trading for Denard Span.

GM Mike Rizzo capped off his busy offseason by adding Dan Haren to the rotation, retainingAdam LaRoche on the club’s terms and rebuilding some farm depth by trading the somewhat overrated Mike Morse to Seattle.

All in all, it has been a very good winter for the Nationals, and they’re the consensus pick to win the National League East, especially given the teardowns in Miami and New York, and the continued aging of the Phillies. But for a team that’s truly built to win now, there’s one more move they could and should make — they need to be the club that swoops in to signKyle Lohse, the one big-ticket free agent remaining.

How good is he?

In some ways, the fact that Lohse remains unsigned headed into the second half of February seems like proof of the education of an industry. He brings 30 wins, a 3.11 ERA and one championship ring over the past two seasons into free agency, numbers that ordinarily would generate something of a feeding frenzy on an open market that is always desperate for quality starting pitching. Yet here we are, with camps open to pitchers and catchers across Arizona and Florida, and Lohse is still out there.

It’s not hard to see why, of course. Teams have wisely begun to look beyond misleading win-loss records to dig a little deeper, and what you have in Lohse is someone on the wrong side of 30 with a long history of inconsistency who doesn’t miss bats and missed time in both 2009 and 2010 because of arm injuries.

Thirty wins over two years may seem elite, but a 3.58 FIP and a 5.72 K/9 — the latter among the 10 lowest figures of all qualified starters over the past two seasons — indicate someone who is much more of a mid-rotation starter. Throw in the presence of Scott Boras and the anchor of draft pick compensation due to the qualifying offer St. Louis extended, and you can see why Lohse’s stock isn’t as high as he might have thought back in the fall.

Lohse may not be among the elite group of pitchers in baseball, but a veteran mid-rotation guy still brings considerable value. He has seemingly become so overrated that he might actually now be underrated, because he’s still a good, solid picher, and his market may have fallen to where he might be a steal at this point. While he won’t miss bats, he has made himself into a control artist, walking only 1.62 batters per nine innings last season — better than all but four other starters — and finishing in the top 25 in home run rate (0.81 per nine). On the right terms, he would be an improvement for nearly every team in baseball.

Why Washington?

The Nationals make the most sense because two of the issues that may scare off other clubs — Boras and the draft pick — simply don’t apply here. Rizzo famously has a good relationship with the super-agent, counting Boras clients Harper, Soriano, Werth, Strasburg and Danny Espinosa among the current Nationals already. Boras also represents Edwin Jackson, who waited until February to sign with Washington last year before moving on to the Cubs this winter. The Nationals already forfeited their first-round draft pick to sign Soriano, so picking up Lohse would cost them only their next pick, which would be in the high 60s in what is expected to be a shallow draft.

That’s important because Washington is in exactly the right position on the win curve to continue to try to improve. That is, it wouldn’t make sense for a team such as Houston to go after Lohse, because spending millions and a draft pick to simply improve from 60 wins to 63 wins ultimately makes little difference. For the Nationals, who do still have to fight off the reloaded Braves on their way to another division title, every win counts — far more than a late second-round pick would.

Given that Washington already has a solid rotation in Strasburg, Haren, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermannand Ross Detwiler, collecting Lohse may seem like an unnecessary addition that would merely lead to an embarrassment of riches. Perhaps so, but there’s ample reason for the Nationals to want to seal some of the cracks that are easily visible here.

Gonzalez may yet have to deal with the repercussions of his alleged involvement in the South Florida PED mess that has caught up Alex Rodriguez and others, while concerns over Haren’s back and hip were serious enough that he managed only a one-year deal, coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. If either one misses time, the team is without an obvious or appealing replacement because safety blanket John Lannan moved on this winter.

Adding Lohse probably would bump Detwiler out of the rotation, and that would not only improve the starters, it could solve one of the team’s more glaring holes — the lack of a real lefty option in the bullpen. Washington lost Sean Burnett to free agency and missed on available lefties such as J.P. Howell, which currently leaves them with only the mediocreZach Duke as a southpaw reliever.

Detwiler had a decent season in his first full year in the Washington rotation, contributing 164 1/3 innings of a 3.40 ERA, but advanced statistics are not a huge fan; he misses even fewer bats than Lohse does and brings neither elite velocity nor a great out pitch. Having him pitch in relief might allow his velocity to play up somewhat while also helping the club more than he would in the rotation, given that he has been very effective against lefty hitters over his career (.214/.307/.300 line against). He would not only be a better option than Duke, he would be available to return to the rotation should injuries require it.

The real question is whether the Nationals could find the money for Lohse, because they have spent so much elsewhere. That said, Lohse doesn’t look to be in much of a position to demand a massive deal at this point and Boras has shown a willingness to be creative with Washington, deferring a sizable portion of Soriano’s deal. Assuming Boras is never going to allow Lohse to sign for less than the $13.3 million qualifying offer he declined, a back-loaded two-year deal in the $28 million to $32 million range, perhaps with a third-year vesting option, seems appropriate for both sides.

From a baseball point of view, it almost seems like a no-brainer for everyone. Washington would improve its rotation depth and bullpen while fully gearing up for a World Series run; Lohse would get a chance to win another ring while remaining in the National League and playing in front of a good defense that should also score plenty of runs to support him.

There are other places that might make sense for Lohse — teams such as the Los Angeles Angels or Cleveland Indians, who both already have lost draft picks and could use another starter. After pricey offseasons for each, those clubs could be at their spending limits, and Lohse may not have interest in returning to the more difficult American League for the first time since 2006. Washington is the best fit if the money is there, and Boras and Rizzo always seem to find a way.

I’m happy to announce the fantasy values have come to FanGraphs+! Based on Steamer projections, these values are for standard, OBP, and “only” leagues based on the following descriptors: 12 teams, 23 starting lineup slots, $260 budget. They will appear on the projections’ leaderboard for FanGraphs+ subscribers.

The methodology for these values has long floated around the site, but there are a few minor changes that have been made to better the accuracy and efficacy of these values.

The replacement levels have been altered to cover a full league’s worth of players. In the past, we had assumed that the last round of two contained replacement players, but discarding this assumption leads to fuller, more accurate auction values. Now, the top 276 players are worth a combined $3120, which is the full budgeted amount for a 12-team auction draft.

In the past, we’d limited results to players that met a certain at-bat or innings threshold. This is no longer the case. However, there is still need for a baseline uninfluenced by low counting stats, the league averages and standard deviations were calculated using the players with at least 350 ABs or 40 IP.

Enjoy!