R.A. Dickey is one of three finalists for the NL Cy Young Award, which will be announced on Wednesday. According to rumors from last week, there’s also a chance that accepting the award will be the last thing he does in a Mets uniform. With just one year left on his contract, the Mets are exploring what it will take to re-sign him to a new deal, and simultaneously gauging his market value in order to determine whether or not they’re better off keeping him or trading him.

To me, the answer is pretty clear – they should keep R.A. Dickey for themselves.

The thought process behind trading him makes sense on the surface; he’s going to be 38-years-old next year, the Mets don’t look like contenders in 2013, and he’ll be a free agent at the end of next season. However, roster construction isn’t just a one year decision, and the Mets need to look at Dickey’s value beyond 2013 as well. And, because of the pitch that he specializes in, we need to throw away everything we think we know about a normal pitcher’s career after age 38.

Knuckleballers are a different breed, and history shows that their career trajectories don’t look anything like traditional pitchers. In fact, even heading into his age 38 season, there’s no reason to think that Dickey is anywhere near the end of his career.

I’ve identified 14 pitchers who were knuckleball specialists and threw at least 200 innings in the Major Leagues beyond their age 37 season, ranging from Phil Niekro’s 2,641 innings down to Freddie Fitzsimmons’ 265 innings. The average totals innings count for the group after age 37 is 1,001, or about five full seasons. And it’s not just Niekro artificially inflating the average by himself; the median result is 905 innings, and 10 of the 12 threw at least 550 innings. Knucklers who make it to age 38 simply don’t break down and stop pitching at 39 or 40. History shows that these pitchers can keep pitching well into their forties, and usually do.

And, the story gets even more optimistic for Dickey’s future when we look at how well those pitchers sustained their previous results after turning 38. Below is a list of the 12 knucklers who had careers after age 37, and how their age 38 and beyond performance compared with the results they got at age 37. We’re using ERA-, which is just their ERA compared to the league average in the particular season that they pitched, with 100 representing average and each point below that representing a percentage point better than league average.

Name Age 37 ERA- Age 38+ ERA-
Joe Niekro 74 107
Ted Lyons 77 71
Jesse Haines 77 92
Charlie Hough 79 98
Phil Niekro 88 94
Johnny Niggeling 88 81
Hoyt Wilhelm 89 62
Tom Candiotti 91 111
Freddie Fitzsimmons 96 86
Tim Wakefield 103 102
Dutch Leonard 106 77
Hal Brown 112 111

Average 90 91

As a group, their average ERA- after turning 38 was essentially identical to their age 37 ERA-, and seven of the 12 pitchers on the list actually prevented runs at a better rate after turning 38 than they did at 37. There’s no obvious performance degradation here, and we’re not just looking at their age 38 season, but their entire careers after 37, when they combined to post an ERA 10 percent better than the league average. We need to regress Dickey’s expectations for future performance based on the fact that he’s only had one amazing season, but history suggests that he’s not really anywhere close to the point where we need to start downgrading his performance because he’s just too old to keep pitching as well as he has previously.

Based on the average career length of previous knucklers who made it to this point, Dickey is probably capable of another four or five full seasons, barring some kind of fluke injury like the line drive to the kneecap that took out Freddie Fitzsimmons anyway. If he was a traditional fastball/breaking ball pitcher, he’d essentially be at a point on his career arc somewhere around 30-years-old, and no one would be wondering whether or not the Mets should sign up for a long term extension for their ace.

The Mets might not think they’re likely to be contenders in 2013, but given their market size and the fact that the Jason Bay albatross is off the books after this year, prematurely writing off 2014 and 2015 at this point is foolish. Especially with a strong group of pitchers behind Dickey, the Mets simply need to add a few more decent everyday players and they’ll be on the cusp of making a run at contention once again. While they might not be able to add all those players this winter, Sandy Alderson should be able to plan on incrementally improving the roster and looking at 2014 as a realistic opportunity to take a significant step forward.

And history suggests that Dickey should still be a highly effective pitcher in 2014, and probably even beyond that. The Mets should view Dickey as part of their long term solution, not a short term asset with an expiration date drawing ever closer. Knucklers age in whatever the opposite of dog years is, and 38 just isn’t all that old for this kind of pitcher. Unless the Mets plan on punting the rest of the decade, they should be able to see a scenario where Dickey helps pitch them into the playoffs. It might not happen next year, but Dickey could easily be part of the next good Mets team. And that should be enough reason to keep him around.

With the World Series trophy now residing in San Francisco, every American League team saw their 2012 season end in disappointment. Here are five moves that could help change that for 2013.

1. The Rays trade LHP David Price and SS Tim Beckham to Arizona for OF Justin Upton and RHP Trevor Bauer.

It would be the blockbuster of blockbusters, with two franchise talents switching coasts in the prime of their careers, but it is also a move that could potentially help both teams solve some issues. As long as the Rays hold their payroll at a similar level, trading Price is an inevitability, as his increasing arbitration awards are going to price him out of their budget within the two years. By swapping him for Upton — whose salaries for the next three years are already locked in — now, they can ensure that they have cost certainty over a premium young talent who can fill a void in their line-up, rather than having to move him for prospects in 12-18 months.

The Rays would essentially be replacing one Upton with the other, but they’d also be bringing in the power bat that they’ve needed to complement Evan Longoria for years. Upton’s not as good of a player right now as Price is, but given the respective replacements, the improvement in the outfielder might be equivalent to the drop-off in the rotation, especially with a piece like Bauer coming along with Upton. The Rays have the pitching depth to move Price for an offensive upgrade, and acquiring Upton while his value is at its lowest might be their best chance to add a big time bat while their window to contend is open.

For Arizona, the price is stiff, but they turn two players that have frustrated the organization into one of the elite pitchers in the game, and a true staff ace that can carry them if they get into October. It wouldn’t be easy to pull the trigger on surrendering two guys who have carried as much hype as Upton and Bauer, but if Kevin Towers was offered the chance to turn potential into performance, I’m not sure he could walk away from the opportunity.

2. The Yankees sign B.J. Upton for five years, $75 million

With Nick Swisher seemingly on his way out of New York, the Yankees have an opening for an outfielder, and they should take advantage of the chance to move Curtis Granderson to right field by bringing in a new center fielder. Upton would give the team a 28-year-old premium defender who has the same flaws that Granderson had when he came over from Detroit, so Kevin Long gets a new project to try and pull offensive potential out of. And, by bringing in Upton to play center, the team can move Granderson to right field, where his diminishing abilities to go back on balls won’t be as noticeable. The short porch in right field is a perfect fit for Granderson’s defensive skillset, and Upton has the speed to run down balls in the gaps that Granderson won’t get to.

Upton also gives the team some youth, which this aging roster could use, and his familiarity with the AL East should make the transition smoother. While $75 million might seem like a lot for a player who has never turned into what he was projected to become, his combination of above average offense and range in center field make it an investment worth making.

3. The Tigers sign Melky Cabrera for one year, $7 million.

The Tigers struggles against left-handed pitching were exposed in the first two games of the World Series, when Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner carved up their line-up in San Francisco. Especially problematic was the team’s reliance on journeyman rookie — words that don’t often go together, and for good reason — Quintin Berry in left field, and his placement in front of Miguel Cabrera because of the team’s lack of on base threats. Cabrera can solve both problems at once, giving the team a drastic upgrade in left field who can also serve as the switch-hitting #2 hitter that Jim Leyland craves. Oh, and there’s the fact that Cabrera destroyed left-handed pitching this year, putting up a 202 wRC+ against southpaws that was fourth best in baseball, behind only Buster Posey, Ryan Braun, and Andrew McCutchen.

Yes, there’s the whole PED suspension issue, and Cabrera is unlikely to ever repeat his 2012 performance, but he was pretty good for the Royals in 2011 and didn’t fail any drug tests then. And, on a one year “make good” contract, there wouldn’t be much risk for the Tigers, who know a thing or two about giving second chances to guys who can hit. Offering Melky the chance to hit in front the Triple Crown winner is a perfect sales pitch to get him to Detroit and show that he can perform even while clean. Given his contact rate, gap power, and switch-hitting skills, he’d be the perfect complement to Miguel Cabrera, and the Cabrera Squared shirts would sell themselves.

4. The Rangers trade RHP Tanner Scheppers and 1B Mitch Moreland to Cleveland for OF Shin-Soo Choo.

With Josh Hamilton unlikely to return, the Rangers need a legitimate left-handed bat. While plugging in Jurickson Profar and shifting Ian Kinsler to the outfield would create room for the team’s best prospect and fill Hamilton’s void, it would also make the team too right-handed, as they’d down to just David Murphy and Moreland as left-handed regulars. Choo would give them a patient left-handed stick whose gap power would play up in the heat, and could slide between RF and DH depending on Nelson Cruz’s health. His weakness against lefties means that they could use his spot to slide Profar in, getting him some playing time even if he’s not slotted for an everyday job out of spring training. And, because he’s entering the final year of his contract, they wouldn’t have to part with any of their best prospects to get him. The Indians would save roughly $8 million (depending on what Choo gets in his final trip through arbitration) and would add two interesting young players to their Major League roster, so it’s a move that could be a win-win for both sides.

5. The A’s sign Eric Chavez for one year, $4 million.

Back when “Moneyball” — the book, not the movie — was published, Eric Chavez was Billy Beane’s golden child. He had turned into an elite third baseman at a young age, and looked poised to help carry the franchise after the departure of The Big Three and Miguel Tejada. However, chronic back problems derailed his career and stole his power, and Chavez had to spend his final four years in Oakland watching from the bench as the A’s Cinderella run crashed around him. Now almost 35-years-old, Chavez somehow found the fountain of youth in New York, but it’s time for him to come home.

Josh Donaldson did an admirable job filling in at third base after Brandon Inge got hurt, but he’s probably best suited to a part-time job, and as a right-handed hitter, he could use a lefty to share the job with. Chavez is a lefty who should be strictly platooned and can’t be counted on to play everyday, so the match is perfect, and Chavez could be reunited with the franchise that developed him in time to celebrate its rebirth. The A’s are extremely young and could use a veteran leader like Chavez — especially if he can hit like he did in 2012 again — and it seems only fitting that he finishes his career where it started.

Matchup to Watch: Doug Fister vs Pablo Sandoval

Sandoval is an excellent bad-ball hitter, but he’s also the most aggressive hitter in baseball at chasing out of the zone, and he does most of his damage against fastballs. Fister has excellent command of both his curve and change-up, and should attack Sandoval with a steady diet of off-speed stuff out of the zone. With Posey and Pence set to see nothing but right-handers, the Giants will need Sandoval to produce, and Fister can show the human starters on the Tigers staff how to pitch the Giants best left-handed bat.

Giants X-Factor: Angel Pagan

Marco Scutaro is just too famous to be an an X-Factor after his dynamite NLCS performance, but he’s not the only under-the-radar acquisition by Brian Sabean who is a big part of why the Giants are in the World Series. Pagan was essentially discarded by the Mets over the winter, but has provided value in every area of the game for San Francisco. A switch-hitter who is better from the left side, Pagan has a chance to thrive against the sea of right-handers Detroit will throw, and his ability to get on base in front of Scutaro can allow Bochy to use the hit-and-run that proved so effective against St. Louis.

Tigers X-Factor: Jose Valverde

The Tigers former closer lost his job because he was poorly suited to retiring the waves of left-handed sluggers on the Yankees, but he’s got a long track record of excellence against right-handed batters, and the middle of the Giants line-up is very right-handed. If Leyland uses him as a situation match-up guy, he can bring him in to face Scutaro, Posey, and Pence while only forcing him to face one left-handed batter (Sandoval), and can likely be quite effective in that role. Valverde’s problems against left-handers make him an ineffective closer, but if used selectively against right-handers, he can be a weapon for Detroit.

Giants Key Reliever: Jeremy Affeldt

The Giants bullpen is low on quality right-handers in front of Sergio Romo, which will force Bruce Bochy to trust Affeldt to get some big outs against right-handed hitters. Leyland will undoubtedly intersperse Delmon Young and Jhonny Peralta between Prince Fielder, Andy Dirks, and Alex Avila, forcing any left-handed reliever to face two right-handed bats in order to get to the three lefties. Of the Giants left-handed relievers, Affeldt is the one most capable of getting Young and Peralta out, so don’t be surprised if he’s the San Francisco reliever that Bochy uses most often.

Tigers Key Reliever: Phil Coke

Coke was a revelation for the Tigers in the ninth inning against New York, but the Yankees lefty heavy line-up meant that he was often facing hitters who had no chance against his breaking ball. San Francisco doesn’t have those same kind of lefties running through their line-up, as their two best hitters from that side are both switch-hitters, meaning that Brandon Belt might be the only left-hander Coke faces the entire series. And Coke was a walking disaster against right-handed hitters this year. Of the 492 pitchers who threw at least 10 innings versus RHBs, Coke ranked 491st in batting average allowed (.381), 489th in on base percentage allowed (.446), and 482nd in slugging percentage allowed. While Coke played a vital role in their win against New York, the Giants are a wildly different match-up, and Leyland needs to rely much more heavily on his right-handers in this series. If Coke is anointed as the closer based on his ALCS performance, it could be a World Series disaster.

Giants Key Bench Player: Joaquin Arias

When the series travels to Detroit, the Giants will have to pick someone to serve as their designated hitter. The options are grim – Aubrey Huff looks finished, Ryan Theriot is on the roster for his defensive flexibility, and Hector Sanchez is the team’s backup catcher. Based on his late game defensive substitutions, it appears that the likely plan will be to have Arias take over as the starting third baseman, with Pablo Sandoval moving to Designated Hitter where his body type makes more sense. However, defensive metrics actually rate Sandoval as a pretty good defender, and it’s not clear that Arias is a significant improvement with the glove, so he’ll need to hit for the move to have positive ramifications for the Giants. Unfortunately for the Giants, Arias hit just .240/.278/.347 against right-handers this year, so this is a particularly bad match-up for him. Still, he may be the best of a bad lot, and for three games in Detroit, he’ll likely find himself in the starting line-up.

Tigers Key Bench Player: Quintin Berry

Berry’s not regularly a bench player, but with the lack of a DH in NL parks, Leyland has already committed to giving his left field spot to Delmon Young, so Berry will come off the bench for the first two (and potentially last two) games of the series. Young’s defensive issues in the outfield are well known, and Berry will almost certainly be called on to replace him late in games to provide better glovework, which could also lead to him hitting behind Prince Fielder in high leverage situations. While Berry likely won’t get too many at-bats in San Francisco, the ones he could be in line for could have huge ramifications, and the Tigers could end up needing to see their light hitting rookie to come through in a clutch situation.

Most Important Stat: Justin Verlander’s 3.80 career postseason ERA

The Tigers are going to be huge favorites in both Game 1 and 5 due to Verlander’s dominance, especially with the way he’s breezed through his last seven starts. However, baseball’s a funny game, and guys you expect do dominate in October don’t always perform as expected, even when they’re the game’s best pitcher. Verlander has been excellent this postseason, but he got hit pretty hard last year, and was lousy back in 2006 as well. Detroit should win both games he starts, but it’s not the mortal lock that you might think. Even with the Ace of all Aces on the mound, the Tigers odds in the two games he starts are probably no better than 60-65%. The Giants are a good baseball team, and shouldn’t simply be counted out of two games simply because Verlander is on the hill.

Modest Proposal: The Giants should bring back Melky Cabrera to DH.

In the first two rounds of the series, you could make a legitimate case that the Giants didn’t really need Cabrera. After all, Gregor Blanco has performed admirably in left field, and benching him for Cabrera isn’t a dramatic upgrade. However, with the sparse field of DH candidates, the gap between Cabrera and his replacement for those three games in Detroit could be massive, and the Giants are going to need all the offense they can get against the Tigers pitching staff. Even with a few months of rust after serving his suspension, Cabrera would be a vast offensive improvement over the inferior DH alternatives, and would provide a better pinch-hitting option in the games in San Francisco. The Giants may still be bitter at Cabrera for getting suspended in the first place, but nothing soothes an angry spirit like a World Series trophy, and they’re more likely to win one with him on the roster.

Prediction: Tigers in 7.

Matchup to Watch: Prince Fielder vs Andy Pettitte

The Yankees getting extended to the limit by the Orioles pushes CC Sabathia back to either Game Three (on three days rest) or Game Four (on normal rest), but the Yankees still have an excellent left-handed starter lined up for Game One – Andy Pettitte. In fact, Pettitte was the toughest left-handed AL starting pitcher for left-handers to hit against this year, and Prince Fielder’s problems with lefties aren’t talked about enough. For his career, his .262/.344/.456 line against southpaws makes him just a decent hitter when a lefty is on the mound, and with Pettitte making two starts and potentially being available out of the bullpen in a potential Game 7, he’s going to see a lot the Yankees toughest LHP.

Yankees X-Factor: Eric Chavez

It seems likely that Alex Rodriguez’s benching was not a one game thing, and so Chavez is going to take over as the Yankees primary third baseman against right-handers. That makes the match-up against Detroit even more interesting, as their entire rotation is right-handed, so Chavez is going to play a large role in this series. If he produces anywhere near the level he did in the regular season — when he was worth +1.8 WAR in just 313 plate appearances — he can be a major factor, but his years of struggles prior to 2012 suggest that he might not be suited to an everyday role at age 34. Will Girardi be comfortable using Chavez every night? Can he perform without regular rest? These are not questions that we know the answer to, but might go a long way to determining the Yankees playoff future.

Tigers X-Factor: Doug Fister

With Justin Verlander slotted in for Game Three, Fister is going to take the ball to open the series and has a chance to establish himself as a true frontline pitcher. His breakout since coming to Detroit has gone a bit under the radar, but Fister was excellent for Detroit this season, posting an ERA that was 17 percent better than league average despite pitching in front of one of the league’s worst defenses. His transformation has come with the change from being a pitch-to-contact strike-thrower into a guy who can get strikeouts with both his change-up and his curve, and now Fister is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. The Yankees scored seven runs off of him in 9 2/3 innings in last year’s ALDS, but Fister’s a better pitcher now than he was then, and he’s going to have a big stage on which to show it.

Yankees Key Reliever: Boone Logan

As a team, the Tigers posted a 109 wRC+ (#3 in AL) against right-handed pitching but just a 96 wRC+ (#9 in AL) against left-handers, the largest platoon split of any team AL team. Logan didn’t get a ton of work in the ALDS, but he’s going to be called on quite often to neutralize Detroit’s left-handed thump. Logan is a good left-on-left reliever, but his command problems against right-handers makes him tough to use for more than one batter at a time.

Tigers Key Reliever: Jose Valverde

Valverde’s meltdown in Game Four of the ALDS didn’t help put to rest any concerns that Detroit had about their relief corps, and the Yankees are a nightmare of a match-up for Valverde. We chronicled his struggles against lefties in the ALDS preview, and the Yankees have a line-up that is heavy on left-handed power. Jim Leyland is unlikely to make a switch in his closer role at this point, but I wouldn’t trust Valverde to get Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher out. His ability to hold close leads against left-handers is almost certainly going to be tested, and could easily determine who advances to the World Series.

Yankees Key Bench Player: Alex Rodriguez

Even if Girardi gives him a start or two to keep him engaged, A-Rod’s biggest impact on the ALCS is likely to come as a pinch-hitter. He’s 0-14 in his career in that role, but Chavez and Ibanez both struggle mightily against left-handed pitching, and he’ll likely be called on to hit for either or both to counter a Phil Coke appearance. He might be the world’s most expensive pinch-hitter, but he’s also going to be Girardi’s best option off the bench, and could make a real difference in that role.

Tigers Key Bench Player: Does Not Exist

Jim Leyland has a starting nine, and barring a natural disaster or a return of the bubonic plague, those guys are going to win or lose the series for Detroit. Only two of the Tigers reserves — Avisail Garcia and Gerald Laird — even managed an official plate appearance in the first round, and both started because they’re part of the Tigers regular line-up against right-handers. Don Kelly ended up hitting a game-winning sac fly after being inserted as a pinch-runner earlier in Game Three, but that’s about the extent of bench usage that you’re likely to see from Detroit.

Most Important Stat: Tigers winning percentage when anyone but Justin Verlander starts – .511

The Tigers are a great team when Verlander starts and an average team when he doesn’t, but because he pitched in Game Five of the ALDS, the Tigers are going to have to rely on the rest of their roster to get them to the World Series. Verlander will only get two starts on normal rest if the series goes to seven games, so if they trail 3-2 headed into Game Six, they’ll have to choose between a short-rest Verlander or playing an elimination game without their ace on the mound. If the series goes seven, they’ve got a great chance to advance, but getting it that far while only getting one start from the game’s best pitcher is going to be a challenge.

Modest Proposal: Make Max Scherzer the closer.

Scherzer is an excellent starting pitcher, so this shouldn’t be seen as a demotion due to any issues with his performance. Instead, this would be an attempt to maximize his impact on the series. Scherzer’s slotted in to start game four, where he’ll likely be opposed by CC Sabathia, so there’s a decent chance the Tigers will lose that game no matter who pitches. By repurposing him as a dominating relief ace, the Tigers can likely get just as many innings out of Scherzer in relief as they could by giving him one start, and realign those innings to come in games that they have better chances of winning. Rick Porcello and Drew Smyley could each throw 2-3 innings in Game Four, gaining the platoon advantage early, so they wouldn’t be punting the game entirely, but would be doubling down on their opportunity to win the games when New York doesn’t have their ace on the hill.

Prediction: Yankees in six.

Matchup to Watch: Manny Machado vs CC Sabathia/Andy Pettitte

The Orioles pulled their 20-year-old third baseman up from Double-A in August, and the talented youngster managed to hold his own down the stretch, even while making the adjustment from shortstop at the same time. While he’s still rough around the edges, Machado has already shown that he’s capable of driving the baseball, especially against left-handers. If the series goes five games, the Yankees will throw a left-handed starter in three of them, and the Orioles will need production from Machado to offset those southpaws ability to neutralize power hitters Jim Thome and Chris Davis.

Yankees X-Factor: Curtis Granderson

It’s an overstatement to say that Granderson makes the Yankees offense work, but his performance swings have a huge impact on whether the team wins or loses. While he looked to have solved some of his contact problems during last year’s breakout, his strikeout rate has continued to escalate this year. He whiffed in 31% of his second half plate appearances, during which he simply wasn’t the offensive force he’s been previously. If Granderson can put his bat on the ball, it’s got a good chance of traveling a long distance, and the Orioles posted a below average strikeout rate as a team, so this should be a good match-up for him.

Orioles X-Factor: Matt Wieters

While Wieters overall offensive performance has always been more good than great, he’s had stretches of baseball where he’s been the dominating force that he was billed as coming out of college. September was one of those stretches, as Wieters hit .296/.389/.541 and began to draw some respect from opposing managers – three of his four intentional walks on the season came in the final month. That version of Wieters is one of the game’s best players, and gives the Orioles a switch-hitting slugger who can do a lot of damage in a hurry. He’ll get the benefit of seeing a lot of left-handed pitching in this series, so Wieters has a chance to keep his hot September going.

Yankees Key Reliever: David Robertson

Rafael Soriano might be the guy filling in for Mariano Rivera, but Robertson is the reason the Yankees are able to protect so many leads. His command improvement has allowed him to work as more than just a one inning setup guy, as he faced five or more batters in 19 of his 65 appearances this year. He will almost certainly be asked to pitch across multiple innings in the postseason, including getting tough left-handers out when they don’t want to pull him for match-up reasons. Robertson’s hammer curve gives him a weapon that works against hitters from both sides of the plate, and the Orioles are going to have to figure out how to keep Robertson from turning each game into a six inning affair.

Orioles Key Reliever: Tommy Hunter

While Hunter’s overall season performance doesn’t seem to merit a spot on the playoff roster, his late season velocity spike saw him averaging 96 with his fastball, compared to 91-92 in the first five months of the season. The huge jump in velocity showed up immediately in his September results – 12 2/3 IP, 2 BB, 12 K, 0.71 ERA. While it’s a sample size of just 51 batters, it is no coincidence that Hunter turned into a dominating reliever when his fastball started hitting the upper-90s, and he simply didn’t look anything like the pitch-to-contact strike-thrower he’d been as a starter. Don’t look at Hunter’s 5.45 season ERA and think he’s a scrub – the most recent version of Hunter has the ability to be a big weapon for the Orioles.

Yankees Key Bench Player: Eduardo Nunez

With Andruw Jones second half collapse, Nunez may very well take over his role as the platoon OF/DH who starts against lefties. He only got 100 plate appearances during the regular season, but his high contact rate against southpaws made him a productive hitter, and it’s the kind of skill that might translate well into a limited role. You don’t see a utility infielder serving as a DH in the playoffs very often, but Nunez may very well be the Yankees best option.

Orioles Key Bench Player: Ryan Flaherty

Second base has been a season long problem for the O’s, with Robert Andino failing to hit much and Brian Roberts return simply leading to another injury. The team finished the year with Flaherty starting eight of the final 12 games at the keystone, as he flashed some power for the first time all year. Five of his nine extra base hits on the season came in September, and with no real effective alternatives, the rule 5 pick could end up getting significant playing time for the Orioles in the post-season.

Most Important Stat: Orioles bullpen WPA: +13.86

The Orioles amazing 29-9 record in one run games is essentially the main reason why the team is in the playoffs, and that record can be explained simply through continued amazing performances by the Orioles bullpen. In fact, by Win Probability Added – a measure that looks at wins added based on the situation, score, and inning at the time of the performance – the Orioles bullpen was the most “clutch” group of relievers in baseball history. While their bullpen was just decent in medium or low leverage situations, only Tampa Bay’s relievers performed better in high leverage situations, and the Orioles played in so many tight games that they were used in more tight situations than any other bullpen in the AL. This combination of high quantity and high quality performances when it matters most was the key to the O’s magical season, and they’ll need their relievers to keep carrying the day if they’re going to advance in October.

Modest Proposal: The Orioles should carry 13 pitchers.

In general, teams shorten their pitching staff in October, as the lack of a need for a fifth starter and the day off for travel give them an opportunity to consolidate innings among their best few pitchers. The Orioles, however, don’t really have a best few pitchers – they have an abundance of arms who are all similarly useful in specific situations, and the fact that the five games are scheduled to take place over just six days means that pitching depth is more important than usual. Additionally, the Orioles bench is not very good, and they only really need a backup catcher, a utility infielder, and one outfielder to serve as depth behind their regular starters. Going with 13 pitchers will allow Buck Showalter to be extremely aggressive with his bullpen usage, playing the match-ups and relying heavily on his bullpen rather than letting the starting pitchers dig a big hole. Against the AL’s best offense, having the ability to make six or seven pitching changes each game is more important than having a pinch-runner for Jim Thome.

Prediction: Yankees in four.

Matchup to Watch: Brandon Moss vs Phil Coke

The A’s don’t have a ton of power from the left side, and the Tigers don’t have much left-handed pitching, so this series is going to be a battle of right-handers, but the two prominent lefties might end up deciding things. Moss slugged .643 versus right-handed pitching but just .431 against lefties this year, so you can bet that Jim Leyland is going to target his lefty specialist to face the A’s toughest slugging lefty as many times as possible in the series. Because of Coke’s problems against right-handers — they hit .381/.446/.604 against him this year — Moss is probably the only batter he’ll face all series. These two should get used to seeing each other.

A’s X-Factor: George Kottaras

Like Moss, Kottaras will also benefit from the right-handed heavy pitching staff that Detroit leans upon, and should end up spending most of the time behind the plate for the A’s. He has 21 home runs in 541 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching, so while he’s not going to hit for a high average, he’s capable of turning around a fastball and providing some production from the bottom of the order.

Tigers X-Factor: Austin Jackson

For the first four months of the season, Jackson may have the Tigers best position player, as he added power and posted a .400 OBP, providing the opportunity for the big boys to drive in a lot of runs. He faded a bit in August and September, however, looking more like the decent hitter with some OBP issues he’d been in previous years. Last year, opposing pitchers dominated Jackson in the postsesaon, exploiting his contact issues to limit him to just a .195/.327/.317 line. His improvement in the first half of the year suggests that he can do better this year, but he’ll need to get back to the things that made him successful earlier in the season.

A’s Key Reliever: Sean Doolittle

It’s amazing that a converted position player could become so good so quickly, but in Doolittle’s first year of pitching, he’s become a dominant left-handed reliever, and one of the key parts of the A’s bullpen. Interestingly enough, though, he posted a large reverse platoon split, and was much better against right-handed batters than lefties. This attribute should let him go multiple innings if need be, and Bob Melvin shouldn’t be afraid to let him go through the heart of the Tigers order – he’s got as good a chance of retiring Miguel Cabrera as he does of getting Prince Fielder out.

Tigers Key Reliever: Joaquin Benoit

Jim Leyland leaned on Benoit very heavily last October, but given his second half meltdown — he’s allowed 11 home runs since the start of July — it will be interesting to see if he’ll be given as much responsibility this year. Most of the rest of the Tigers bullpen is primarily made up of match-up guys, so Benoit’s ability to get both right-handers and left-handers out could prove to be pivotal, but his gopheritis this year suggests that asking him to protect a late lead for too long could go horribly wrong in a hurry. The Tigers need Benoit to be the guy he was last year, not the guy he’s been in the second half of this year.

A’s Key Bench Player: Chris Carter

With Seth Smith as the starting DH against right-handed pitchers, Carter will be limited to pinch-hitting duties in this series. If Cliff Pennington comes to bat in a key situation, look for Carter to pop out of the dugout and provide a little more pressure on the Tigers pitchers. While he strikes out a lot, Carter may very well be the best pinch-hitter on anyone’s bench in the playoffs, with his power giving him the chance to change a game or two.

Tigers Key Bench Player: Ramon Santiago

This is almost a selection by default, as the rest of the Tigers bench is not much look to at. In fact, the Tigers lack of depth beyond their starters was one of their key problems this year, and Leyland is likely to just ride his starters for as long as he can. Santiago can serve as a pinch-runner in a key situation, but beyond that, don’t expect to see many of Detroit’s reserves in this series. They’re just not good enough to be featured in games with this kind of meaning.

Most Important Stat: Tigers starters, 82 ERA-

Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez combined to prevent runs at a rate that was 18 percent better than the league average this year. To put that in context, that’s essentially the same rate put up by Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia this year. The Tigers starters are the best group that any team takes into October, and while they’re not quite up to the Phillies level from the past few years, they’re pretty close. The A’s offense has been surprisingly good in the second half of the year, but they’re in for a stiff challenge, as there just isn’t a weak spot in this Detroit rotation.

Modest Proposal: Jose Valverde should not be asked to begin the 9th if an LHB is due up.

While Valverde is the Tigers capital-C Closer, he’s really a right-handed specialist masquerading in that role. He only struck out 21 left-handed batters all season (against 19 walks), and his problems holding leads have mostly come when he’s been asked to retire a series of guys who bat from the opposite side. If a left-hander is due up to start the inning, the Tigers are better off sticking with Benoit for one additional batter, then handing the ball to Valverde to go after the righties. The A’s don’t have the same amount of scary left-handed bats that others do, but Leyland should still protect his closer as best he can, and that means not using him for the entire ninth inning if a right-hander isn’t due up first.

Prediction: Tigers in five.

Matchup to Watch: Buster Posey vs Aroldis Chapman

Posey put together an amazing offensive season that is likely going to end with the NL MVP trophy on his mantle, but he did most of his damage against left-handed pitching, hitting .433/.470/.793 against southpaws on the year. Conversely, he only hit .292/.382/.440 against right-handed pitching, which is a nice line but not overly spectacular. The Reds pitching staff is heavily right-handed, so Posey’s chances to tee off on a left-hander is only likely to happen if he gets a chance to face the Reds flamethrowing closer. While Chapman was excellent for the Reds this season, 10 of the 12 extra base hits — and all four of the home runs — he allowed were against righties this year. Conventional wisdom will tell Dusty Baker to bring Chapman in to face whoever is coming up in the ninth inning, but if he has a chance to get Posey out with a right-hander before going to Chapman, he should take advantage of it. The Reds don’t have to let Posey face a lefty the entire series, and can mitigate the Giants main offensive weapon if they simply keep throwing right-handers at him, saving Chapman for everyone else in the line-up.

Giants X-Factor: Brandon Belt

Bruce Bochy has talked about having Hector Sanchez catch Tim Lincecum for his comfort level, but doing so would force Buster Posey to first base and Brandon Belt to the bench. With the Reds rotation featuring all right-handed pitching, the Giants can’t afford to sit one of their few quality left-handed bats in favor of their backup catcher. Belt needs to start each game, and if that means Lincecum has to throw to Posey, so be it.

Reds X-Factor: Bronson Arroyo

Arroyo is being given the chance to start in Game 2 of the series, meaning that he’s also going to be lined up to start game 5 if the Reds stay with just a three man rotation. Arroyo had a strong comeback season after a disastrous 2011, but is still prone to giving up home runs, and could put Baker in a tough situation if he gives up a few long balls early. With Mat Latos available, the Reds are taking a risk in lining up Arroyo to get the ball in a potential deciding fifth game, and Arroyo’s going to have to keep the ball in the yard for this decision to not look like a mistake.

Giants Key Reliever: Jose Mijares

The Giants acquired Mijares for the stretch run to help them deal with dangerous left-handers, and the Reds have the most dangerous left-handed hitter in the game in Joey Votto. Mijares held left-handed batters to a .205/.269/.317 line this season, but he’s going to be asked to get Votto out multiple times in this series, a tall task for even the toughest lefty reliever.

Reds Key Reliever: Jonathan Broxton

The Reds bullpen is a bit strange, in that the two best relievers down there are both left-handed and that all the important right-handers were better against left-handed batters than right-handers this season. However, with the Giants mashing lefties this year, the Reds are going to have to maximize their right-on-right match-ups, and that will mean using guys like Broxton to go after Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey, and Hunter Pence. With a strong fastball and a decent slider, Broxton should be better against right-handers than he was this season. He’ll need to be for the Reds to get some big outs late in games in this series.

Giants Key Bench Player: Aubrey Huff

Huff had a lost season and his potential inclusion on the playoff roster is a source of controversy, but the Giants don’t have any other left-handed power on their bench. Perhaps Huff doesn’t possess the kind of thump he used to have either, but Bruce Bochy is going to need someone to pinch-hit against right-handers, and there aren’t any other obvious options behind San Francisco’s regular starters. The team’s lack of pinch-hitting depth is a problem, and they’ll likely look to Huff for a miracle comeback after a miserable 2012 campaign.

Reds Key Bench Player: Xavier Paul

Paul was very effective against right-handed pitching down the stretch, and even spent a little time in center field, where Drew Stubbs has been mostly ineffective this season. If Stubbs comes to bat in a critical situation early in the game, Dusty Baker should not hesitate to use Paul to pinch-hit for Stubbs. The defensive downgrade might hurt later, but Paul can hit right-handed pitching, something that cannot be said for Stubbs.

Most Important Stat: Giants 81.7% contact rate on swings

The Giants offense posted the fourth best contact rate in baseball this year, producing offense through consistently putting the bat on the ball. The Reds bullpen allowed the lowest rate of contact of any relief corps in baseball, limiting hitters to just 73.7% contact on the season. Late in games, it’s going to be strength versus strength, with the Reds relievers trying to throw the ball past Giants hitters who are very good at putting the ball in play. The best way to protect a late lead is to simply strike everyone out, but San Francisco is the toughest playoff team to accomplish that against.

Modest Proposal: Todd Frazier should start at third base for the Reds over Scott Rolen.

Baker favors the veteran for his experience and his defense, but Frazier clearly outperformed Rolen when he was given a chance to play during the regular season. Rolen’s glove still has value, but shouldn’t stand in the way of one of the Reds best hitters getting a chance to drive in runs. Rolen can be used as a late game defensive replacement, giving Baker the advantage of improved defense when protecting leads, but if Cincinnati wants to maximize their chances of advancing past the first round, Frazier should be in the starting line-up.

Here’s the piece for tomorrow.

With the regular season winding down, those who won’t be playing in October are beginning to look forward to the Hot Stove season, and are picking through the list of free agents that will hit the market this coming winter. Part of that preparation is looking back at how previous free agents have fared after landing a big contract, and seeing what lessons can be learned from history. It turns out that the early results of last winter’s class holds some interesting lessons for those who are preparing to spend again this winter.

First, let’s just look at the free agents who had the best years in 2012 on the field. While first season performance doesn’t dictate whether a contract was a wise choice or not, these five players provided the largest boosts to their franchises with their play this year.

1. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee: 6.2 WAR

Ramirez was brought in to replace Fielder’s offense in Milwaukee, and he actually provided an upgrade over what the team got from their slugging first baseman the year before. Already 34, Ramirez is unlikely to repeat his career year, but swapping out Fielder for Ramirez looks like a net win for Milwaukee even before you consider the massive cost differences.

2. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona: 5.6 WAR

Another surprising result, Hill has been rejuvenated in Arizona, finding his early career power and supplementing it with a .300 average for the first time in his career. He’s cut down on his pop-ups and is driving the ball regularly, and there aren’t many second baseman in baseball who can match what Hill did at the plate this year.

3. Yu Darvish, SP, Texas: 4.9 WAR

While Darvish was not techncally a free agent, all teams had the option to bid on his rights, so for all intents and purposes, he was available to the highest bidder. His command has been up and down, but over the last six weeks, he’s been pounding the strike zone with nasty stuff, and his ability to keep the ball in the yard even when he’s struggling to throw strikes has allowed him to thrive in Texas.

4. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia: 4.8 WAR

Rollins may be the surprising name on the list, but after a slow start to the year, he’s been a monster in the second half of the season, carrying the Phillies back into the playoff race despite injuries to Roy Halladay, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard. Rollins ended up back in Philadelphia after finding the market for his services pretty dry, but in retrospect, teams should have been anxious to get one of the game’s best middle infielders away from the Phillies.

5. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit: 4.7 WAR

The Tigers haven’t played up to expectations this year, but don’t blame Fielder – he’s done his part, providing the kind of offensive complement to Miguel Cabrera that the Tigers were expecting when they gave him a massive contract to replace the injured Victor Martinez. How Fielder would hold up as he got older was always the concern, but the Tigers will take the value now and worry about the long term ramifications of the deal later.

Shopping in free agency isn’t just about getting the best results from the players you sign, however. Since teams have budgets to operate under, getting value for the dollar frees up money to spend on other players, so franchises can often be better off landing a couple of good players at bargain prices rather than focusing on trying to pay market value for one big name star. So, instead of simply looking at the best signings by total production, here are the best free agent values of last winter.

1. Fernando Rodney, RP, Tampa Bay: 1 year/$2 million AAV plus a team option – 2.2 WAR – $0.9 million per WAR

Rodney has an outside chance to best Dennis Eckersley’s 0.61 ERA in 1990, which currently stands as the lowest ERA any pitcher has produced in a full season in Major League history. Relievers in general are generally overvalued on the free agent market, but Rodney has been an amazing bargain, and perhaps the best part of the deal is that the Rays had the foresight to include a team option for 2013 in the contract, so Rodney can’t even cash in on his amazing performance this year.

2. Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona: 2 years/$5.5 million Annual Average Value – 5.6 WAR – $1.0 million per WAR

The going rate for free agents last year was about $5 million per win, while Hill only cost $1 million per win, an 80% discount off the market rate. Keeping the deal to just two years minimized their risk last winter, but in retrospect, they probably wish they would have gotten him locked up for three or four years now. If he comes anywhere close to repeating his performance in 2013, he’s going to land a much, much bigger paycheck next time around.

3. Josh Willingham, OF, Minnesota: 3 years/$7 million AAV – 3.9 WAR – $1.8 million per WAR

Concerns about his age (33) along with the wrong-way trends of his walk and strikeout rates drove down Willingham’s price, but he didn’t take long to make teams regret passing on one of the cheapest sluggers to sign in the last few years. He’s set a career high with 35 home runs in part because he got his contact rates back under control, and is a reminder that trends don’t always continue on a straight line.

4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Milwaukee: 3 years/$12 million AAV – 6.2 WAR – $1.9 million per WAR

The most productive free agent of the winter signed for just $36 million total, or just 17 percent of the total that Detroit guaranteed Fielder over the life of his deal. In a market where offensive performance is heavily rewarded, it’s rare to see a power hitting run producer come out as such a bargain, but that’s exactly what the Brewers got in Ramirez.

5. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, New York: 1 year/$10 million AAV – 3.6 WAR – $2.7 million per WAR

Kuroda’s production in LA was viewed with skepticism, especially when Brian Cashman asked him to make the switch from the NL West to the AL East. However, Kuroda’s sinker has proven just as effective against stiffer opponents, and he’s been a stabilizing force in the Yankees rotation. Perhaps most interestingly, the Yankees make him a qualifying offer and receive a draft pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere this winter, so they’ll either get him back on an another low-risk one year contract or gain an additional prospect for the future.

The one key strand that runs through the top five values? They were all on the wrong side of 30 and presumed to be on the downside of their careers. Each came at a discount due to questions about their long term value, and whether they could sustain recent successes while adjusting to their advancing age. Teams willing to place bets on older free agents did very well last winter, receiving a large bang for the buck without having to enter into a long term commitment to improve their teams in the short term.

On July 1st, the San Diego Padres stood at 29-50, a worse mark than every team in baseball besides the Chicago Cubs. They’d been outscored by 80 runs, and simply looked like a team that was far from being competitive. Since that day, however, the Padres have won 42 of 70, a .600 winning percentage that is tied for the fifth best mark in baseball. The addition of top catching prospect Yasmani Grandal and a resurgent Cameron Maybin have the offense clicking, and their second half success has people talking about the Padres as contenders in 2013.

And certainly, the Padres do have several interesting young players, and their farm system was rated as the best in the game by Keith Law before the season started, so there are reasons for Friar-related optimism. However, before we get too carried away by their recent string of strong play, it would be helpful to know whether these kinds of second half surges have actually carried over to the following season.

Over the last five years, I found eight examples of teams that posted losing records before July 1st, but had a winning percentage at least 100 points higher in the final three months of the season than they did in the first three. While the Padres mid-season turn around seems unexpected based on how they played in the first three months of the year, this phenomenon happens pretty much every season, and sometimes multiple teams pull off large second half improvements in the same year.

So, how often did those gains carry over to the following season? Well, Padres fans, you might not want to read any further, because you’re probably not going to like the answer.

Of the eight clubs that had similar leaps, only one team — the 2008 Rockies — actually improved upon their second half winning percentage in the following year, and that example comes with a fairly large asterisk, because the 2007 Rockies team made it to the World Series. They started their NL title defense with a thud, and their second half rebound and subsequent 2009 improvement was more about returning to established levels of performance. The Rockies played poorly in the first half of 2008, but those were really their only poor stretch of baseball over a three year time period, so they don’t necessarily fit the model of an upstart team having a strong finish as a precursor to what is to come.

Besides that Colorado team, every other club played worse in the following season than they did during their second half improvement. Of course, there was far more room to go down than up, so perhaps that was to be expected, but the magnitude of the overall declines doesn’t speak particularly well for the Second Half Surge theory.

On average, the seven decliners lost 67 points off their second half winning percentage, dropping from a .548 aggregate winning percentage as a group to just .478 in the following year. The 2010 Braves had the smallest decline at 19 points — and they did manage to win the NL Wild Card, so perhaps you would like to count them as a success story as well — but they were also the best of the first half teams that we were examining, having posted a .474 winning percentage in the first three months of 2009.

Four of the seven posted losing records in their follow-up season, and two of them — the 2009 Indians and 2011 Astros — posted lower winning percentages in the next season than they did in the first half of the prior year. Overall, the .478 winning percentage posted by these teams in the season after their “Second Half Surge” was slightly lower than the .480 winning percentage they posted during the season in which they appeared to be two totally different clubs.

And perhaps that small difference is the real takeaway here. At the group level, these teams posted an almost identical record in the next season as they did to their total record in the prior year, suggesting that the first half record of a team that improves significantly is just as important as the second half data. Had we just used total season winning percentage as a predictor of next season winning percentage, we’d have hit the overall mark almost dead on for these eight teams.

The Padres play of late is certainly encouraging, but it doesn’t mean that we can just ignore all the problems that were on full display in the first three months of the season. If we want to understand how teams will do next year, we should look at their entire season as a whole, and not fall into the trap of putting too much weight on recent performance. The Padres may very well be a team on the rise, but their record since the calendar turned to July is simply not enough evidence to suggest that they should be penciled in for a playoff run in 2013.

With the regular season just a few weeks away, teams are beginning to have to make their off-season plans, at least as it pertains to players on their own roster. In situations where a player has a guaranteed contract, the decision of whether to retain them or not has already been made, but arbitration eligible players and guys who have team options for 2013 force teams to make often difficult decisions. Based on their performance and their 2013 salaries, here are the five toughest calls that teams are going to have to make this winter.

Jake Peavy, SP, Chicago White Sox – $22 million team option or $4 million buyout

While Adam Dunn and Alex Rios have both had big comebacks to spark the offense, Peavy’s return to prior form has been the biggest driver of the White Sox success this year. After dealing with a variety of arm problems, Peavy is going to throw 200 innings for the first time since 2007, and while he’s not quite as dominant as he was then, his K/BB ratio (3.89) is nearly the equal of Justin Verlander (3.93), and ranks seventh in the American League among qualified starters. He’s also the rare fly ball pitcher who can succeed in the White Sox home ballpark, and while it might seem like he’s been around forever, he doesn’t turn 32 until the end of May.

However, is a pitcher with Peavy’s track record of injuries worth $18 million (the net cost of retaining him, considering the presence of the buyout) for 2013? Last winter, Hiroki Kuroda only was able to land a one year, $11 million deal with a similar skillset, and while he was several years older, he didn’t have Peavy’s history of arm problems. It is a weak market for starting pitching, however, and Peavy could probably land a three or four year deal at a reduced annual average value if the White Sox grant him free agency. The White Sox may be looking at a choice between paying him $22 million for 2013 or paying the $4 million buyout and then bidding against others who might offer something like $36 million over three years. However, even if they had to pay the buyout, signing him to 3/36 would value the additional two years at just $9 million apiece, which is probably a gamble worth making given his production.

Verdict: Decline the option, attempt to re-sign to multi-year deal at a lower AAV.

Dan Haren, SP, Anaheim: $15.5 million team option or $3.5 million buyout

Before the season, this looked like a lock to be picked up, but Haren has struggled with back problems that have led to reduced velocity, and in turn, his worst season since his rookie season in 2002. However, an off-season of rest could solve all of his issues, and he’s had stretches of effectiveness this year, including his most recent few starts in September. However, Haren’s strikeout rate has been trending in the wrong direction for four years now, and even early in the season, he wasn’t the same frontline starter he was in Arizona.

At a net cost of $12 million, the question for the Angels will really come down to whether they can afford to keep both Haren and free agent starter Zack Greinke, or if they need to choose between them. If picking up Haren’s option stands in the way of retaining Greinke, then paying the buyout and hoping to bring him back at a lower salary seems like the best bet. If they don’t believe they can re-sign Greinke, however, then they can allocate a few million that would have gone to keeping him around to picking up Haren’s option, making sure they don’t lose two starters in one fell swoop this winter.

Verdict: Decline if they can re-sign Greinke, exercise if they can’t.

Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco: Offer arbitration at expected $14 million or non-tender

When the Phillies traded Pence to San Francisco, the fact that he was not eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season was touted as a virtue. However, as a player who has already gone through arbitration three times (thanks to achieving Super-Two status earlier in his career), Pence’s salaries have escalated to the point where offering him arbitration might result in a paycheck that is too large for what he brings to the table.

After posting a career best .378 wOBA and +4.7 WAR last year, Pence has regressed to a career worst .324 wOBA and +1.8 WAR this season, as he’s just not getting balls to fall in for hits like he used to. His core statistics are all mostly unchanged, so there isn’t evidence of massive decline, but Pence overachieved in 2010, and his current salary reflects numbers that he probably can’t put up again. If Pence is more of a +2 to +3 win player headed into his age 30 season, $14 million may just be too rich for the Giants blood, especially if they also want to retain the more productive Angel Pagan. However, if they think that Pence could bounce back to something closer to his prior form, $14 million isn’t an outrageous sum for one year, and they would have the right to make him a qualifying offer after next season, which would give them draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere as a free agent, which they would not get if they non-tender him this winter.

Verdict: Offer arbitration, hope he’s willing to settle for a smaller raise.

Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Chicago: $13 million team option with $1 million buyout

Since the White Sox took Youkilis from their red-stained brethren, his power and walks have come back and he’s performed as well as they could have hoped, though still not at the kinds of levels he’s achieved previously. Still, at +1.7 WAR in just 266 plate appearances in Chicago, his numbers would project out to a +4 win season in over 150 games played, which is easily worth the $12 million net cost of exercising his team option.

Of course, Youkilis has actually never managed to play 150 games in a regular season before, and has only averaged 115 per season over the last four years. So, while he’s been productive when healthy, the injuries are starting to take a toll on his body, and committing a significant chunk of the payroll to a guy who might best profile as a part-time player might not be the best use of resources for the White Sox. On the other hand, this is an absolutely miserable crop of free agent infielders, so he’d be fighting guys like Jeff Keppinger for the title of best available third base option if the Whtie Sox cut him loose. Given the relative lack of alternatives, he probably won’t have to settle for much less than what the option would guarantee him.

Verdict: Decline, but don’t expect a big savings if they try to re-sign him afterwards.

Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta: $9 million team option or $1 million buyout

Hudson has been an excellent pitcher when healthy, and $8 million isn’t a lot of money for a guy who can still get opposing batters out, but Hudson’s future comes with a lot of red flags. He turned 37 in July, and right about that time, his velocity and strikeout rates both headed south in a hurry. After averaging 90 MPH with his fastball after coming off the disabled list in May, he bottomed out at 88 MPH in July, though he’s creeped back up to 89 in the last month or so. However, his 12% strikeout rate in the second half of the season is a problem, as even a groundball specialist like Hudson needs to miss bats every now and then in order to keep opposing runners from scoring.

Given his advancing age, his back surgery last winter, and his declining velocity and strikeout rates, committing $8 million to Hudson might not be in the Braves best interests. As a Georgia resident near the end of his career, Hudson may be more willing to take a paycut to stay close to home, but how low he’ll be willing to go while still being a rather effective pitcher remains to be seen. If the Braves put him on the market, he might be this winter’s Roy Oswalt.

Verdict: Decline, then try to re-sign to an incentive-laden contract.