The Daily Fantasy Baseball Compendium

A compendium usually comes in the form of a heavy, leather bound tome. Perhaps it’s fitting that something as exciting, fast-based, and internet-based as daily fantasy baseball (DFS) has a compendium that will come to you in a more digital format.

The purpose in a compendium, in any case, is to provide a detailed and thorough exploration of a single subject. Today, our focus is daily fantasy baseball. Consider this a beginner’s guide to DFS. If you’re looking for a place to start or just want to reorient yourself with the basics – you’re in the right place.

What Is Daily Fantasy Baseball?

Traditional fantasy baseball is a season-long affair. DFS is a daily experience. You’ll pick a new roster every day based on lineups, weather, matchups, and stadiums. If you pick a bad team on April 10, you only have to live with the consequences for a day.

Rather than drafting a team, you’re given a set payroll. Your job is to optimize your lineup for that day by drafting a pitcher(s) and position players. Each player has an associated cost, based on some proprietary blend of historical and recent performance. Every site calculates player cost in a slightly different way. As an example, Johnny Cueto might cost $10,000 while Drew Smyly might run $7,800. Picking Cueto over Smyly will have implications for the rest of your roster and vice versa.

While it’s possible to only participate in free contests, most DFS games are played for money. Buy-ins commonly range from $1 to $200 per contest. There are a few high roller contests too. A typical traditional fantasy baseball league might come with a $50 buy-in. If you were to play a single $1 DFS contest every day, you’d be investing about $170. In other words, there is a lot more money to be made (and lost) in DFS.

You can think of DFS as roughly analogous to online poker. The sites collect a rake on every entry – it’s (mostly) how they make their money. You can enter different types of contests – tournaments, heads up play, etc. which affect your odds of winning and how much you can win.

Sticking with the poker analogy, daily baseball is a combination of luck and skill. Anything can happen in a given poker hand, but there is a way to play the percentages to maximize long term winnings. Same with DFS. There are days when I fall in love with my lineup only to watch it inexplicably flounder. Conversely, one of my best days last season came courtesy of Brad Miller. Improbably, he bopped two home runs and made me $700 in the process.

Just as pocket aces can (and often does) lose in Texas Hold’Em, so too can your fantastically optimized lineup flop. Still, if you had the choice, you would always opt to start with aces. If you’re playing DFS to win money, prepare to take the long view and overlook some heartbreaking losses.

Platforms

There are (presumably) dozens of sites providing daily fantasy baseball. My own experience is limited to the two biggest sites – FanDuel and DraftKings. I’ll restrict my comments to these two platforms. Just keep in mind there are plenty of other places to play.

Every platform offers a slightly different game. Scoring, positions, and salaries will vary. For example, FanDuel uses one pitcher, eight position players, and does not allow multiple position eligibility. DraftKings uses two pitchers, eight position players, and does allow multiple position eligibility. The scoring systems are different too (we’ll get there).

Most platforms reward current participants for recruiting new players. If you have a friend already playing, make sure you sign up through their referral link. They’ll get a very small cut of your buy-ins.

FanDuel

If you like simplicity, FanDuel is your platform of choice. Many platforms try to incorporate multiple pitchers, relievers, utility fielding slots, and multi-position eligibility. FanDuel cuts down to the basics with one starting pitcher, your standard eight positions, a simple scoring system, and a $35,000 budget. The simplicity seemingly increases the role of luck in performance, but I have not empirically confirmed that detail.

Below I have included a table of FanDuel’s scoring system compared against linear weights from FanGraphs Guts!

Outcome	Points	linear weights
1B	1	0.888
2B	2	1.271
3B	3	1.616
HR	4	2.101
RBI	1
R	1
BB	1	0.69
SB	2	0.2
HBP	1	0.722
Out	-0.25	-0.11

Home runs are a big deal. While our linear weights consider a home run to be about 2.4 to three time more valuable than a single, FanDuel awards at least six points for a home run (HR+R+RBI) compared to one point for a single. One of the quickest paths to success is to hit a lot of home runs – especially with men on base. Easy peasy, right?

Scoring for pitchers is extremely basic. Observe:

Outcome	Points
W	4
ER	-1
SO	1
IP	1

You want strikeout pitchers who last deep into the game. A good pitching performance will often decide the outcome of a DFS contest. A complete game, 11 strikeout win is worth 24 points – the same as a hitter going 4-for-4 with four solo home runs. Generally, you want to target at least 15 points from your starter.

There is one notable quirk with FanDuel – rosters lock as soon as a contest starts. If your contest begins at 1:05 pm, you may have to guess who is starting in later games. Trust me, it’s best not to guess. Nothing is more devastating in DFS than getting stuck with a dead roster spot.

DraftKings

DraftKings offers a more nuanced game with two pitchers, a $50,000 budget, and multi-position eligibility. Unlike FanDuel, players lock only when their game starts. If you want to use Buster Posey in a late game and he’s benched, at least you can audible to Hector Sanchez.

Once again, I’ve compared DraftKings points to linear weights.

Outcome	Points	linear weights
1B	3	0.888
2B	5	1.271
3B	8	1.616
HR	10	2.101
RBI	2
R	2
BB	2	0.69
SB	5	0.2
HBP	2	0.722
Out	—	-0.11
CS	-2	-0.398

Home runs remain extremely important. A solo blast nets 14 points. As you can probably tell, DraftKing’s scoring system requires a little extra thought since there are no single point events. While you won’t be penalized for outs, you do have to avoid caught stealings. That’s not exactly an easy category to manage.

Outcome	Points
W	4
ER	-2
SO	2
IP	2.25
H	-0.6
BB	-0.6
HBP	-0.6
CG	2.5
Shutout	2.5
No Hitter	5

Not only do you play two starting pitchers, more stats are measured. Wins are devalued compared to FanDuel, but innings and strikeouts are still extremely important. Unlike FanDuel, you have to worry about baserunners allowed. Then there are the fluke stats. If you’re lucky enough to capture a complete game, shutout, or no hitter, you’re handed a ton of extra points.

Just like FanDuel, a great pitching performance is comparable to a hitter blasting four solo home runs. If you catch two excellent starts on the same day, you’re probably taking home some money.

Types of Contest

There are a few general league types that are common between all platforms. Each site also experiments with unique formats.

Head-to-Head

This is your standard head-to-head experience against a single opponent. Be aware of the rake. If you play a $2 H2H game, the winner takes $3.60. The expected value of your entry is $1.80. You’ll need to win 55-56% of the time just to break even. To grind out a nice return over a season, you’ll need to win six out of 10 contests. You’ll also have to play a lot of contests to win serious money. The one-on-one nature of the game has implications for how you build your lineup (discussed below).

Tournaments

This is the polar opposite of H2H, pitting you against 200 to 10,000+ opponents. There are prizes that decline from first to Xth place depending on the size of the tournament. Generally speaking, the top 10 to 15% get paid. A $2, 10,055 participant tournament has a $1.79 expected value per entry. While the expected value is comparable to H2H, you can anticipate some quantity of busted lineups. The more participants there are in a contest, the more points you need to score in order to win. 

Even in 10,000 person contests, it’s exceedingly rare for somebody to draft a roster identical to your own.

Multi-Entry

Some contests – usually tournaments – allow for multiple entries. This opens two distinct strategy options. You can enter the same roster multiple times, which will increase the risk/reward with that one roster. Alternatively, you can craft different lineups to increase your chance at winning. Both strategies have merit.

Leagues

These are tiny tournaments, ranging from five to 100 players. The expected value of a $2 entry is the same $1.80. Payouts come in three types: standard (like tournaments), 50/50, and Double Up.

50/50

Some types of leagues are 50/50′s. With a $2 50/50 league, all owners in the top 50% of the standings will make $3.60. The rest lose. This is a good game for someone who prefers to play it safe. Just don’t go too safe. A lot of DFS hobbyists prefer this format. You’ll use a similar strategy to a H2H league.

Double Up

Double up, triple up, quintuple up – you’ll find them all on most sites. The double up is pretty similar to a 50/50 league. A $2 entry will give you a shot at a $4 payout. However, slightly fewer than the top 50% of rosters are paid. If you were to play a quintuple up, you’ll bet $2 to win $10. You’ll have to finish in about the top 17% in order to place.

Build a Process

A consistent process is a key building block for DFS success. For the pros, that often means building an algorithm, following the output, and adapting the formula based on holes. For a more casual DFS participant, a process might involve checking certain fantasy publications, determining weather conditions, and analyzing matchups. Below is my personal process. There are numerous ways to find DFS success, and I recommend building your own proprietary approach to the daily grind.

Lineups, Weather, Matchups, and Stadiums

It is absolutely critical that all of your players start. This might sound elementary. If you play often enough, eventually you will be caught with your pants down. It’s embarrassing to miss a win by a thin margin with Andrew McCutchen sitting on the bench. There are plenty of great resources that display lineups as soon as they’re announced on Twitter. I use Rotowire. If you’re playing for serious stakes, you’ll want to keep an eye on Twitter to make sure nobody is a late scratch.

Lineups are important in another sense too. You usually want hitters in the top half of the order because they come to the plate more often. It can also help to target hitters from away teams. Home teams sometimes only come to the plate eight times.

Weather is another important factor. Not only do you need to avoid potential rainouts, players in adverse conditions perform unpredictably. Some pitchers are unphased by a light rain. Others meltdown entirely. There is no good data set for separating the wheat from the chaff – I prefer to avoid rain entirely.

Cold temperatures reduce the number of home runs hit, which could work in a pitcher’s favor. Like with rain, some pitchers simply don’t pitch well in the cold. Conversely, warm weather increases home run production. Wind is a tricky detail to incorporate at some locales. The wind effect at Wrigley Field is well documented and easy to exploit. Californian teams deal with things called Santa Ana winds and the marine layer. Ask a Californian to explain, I just know they affect home run rates.

To get a better understanding of the math behind the weather, I recommend Jeff Zimmerman’s research. A couple salient facts: a 10 degree increase of temperature equals an extra four feet on a 400 foot fly ball. One mph of following wind speed equals three feet.

To most DFS participants, “matchups” refers to batter vs. pitcher data. I do not reference BvP rates. Repeat, I completely ignore BvP data. The Book says BvP data is not predictive of future performance.

Despite my controversial approach, matchups do matter to my overall strategy. Target hitters against weak pitchers and vice versa. The platoon advantage can also work in your favor, especially if you’re trying to find a core performer at a bargain basement price.

Finally, park effects influence my targets. Take Coors Field. Home runs are boosted by 32% in Colorado. That effect is partially baked into the price tag of Rockies hitters, but the same isn’t true of visiting teams. Let’s use Buster Posey as an example. his home park suppresses right-handed home runs by 24%. Coors boosts them by 30%. That’s a big swing in value for Posey.

I use a simple tool called the Factor Grid to determine which games are best for targeting offense and pitching. It contains basic park factors, home run factors by handedness, and a daily weather rating.

Examples of Specific Strategies

Stacking

When you use several hitters from the same team, it’s called a stack. Your goal is to have your hitters interact. Say you roster Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, and Andrew McCutchen. If McCutchen launches a three-run home run with the other pair on base, you get more points. Using FanDuel as an example, a plain three-run home run is eight points. In this scenario it’s 10 points because Marte and Harrison also scored. Plus you probably also received points when they reached base.

Stacking is a common and effective DFS strategy. I stack my rosters most days. It’s a boom or bust approach to DFS, which makes it particularly good for tournaments and other deep formats where you expect to lose most days. In a deep tournament, one magical day can cover hundreds of future buy-ins.

All platforms limit the number of players you can take from a given team. On FanDuel, you can select no more than four players from a given team and three teams must be represented on your roster. Draftkings doesn’t have the player maximum, but you do need to pick from three teams.

Away Leadoffs

If you’re playing a head-to-head or 50/50 style league, you probably don’t want to stack. Instead, you should aim for steady performance day after day. A good technique is to bulk up on leadoff hitters from away teams. You’ll also want to pay attention to the stadium effects.

This strategy requires a good starting pitcher. Rather than trying to find the underpriced guy, you may want to pony up for Corey Kluber. Leadoff hitters pair well with good pitchers because they usually aren’t too pricey. They don’t bash a ton of home runs or drive in heaps of RBI. Their value comes via frequent plate appearances, runs scored, and stolen bases. Remember, you’re aiming for consistency rather than trying to maximize your score.

Overlay

Most tournaments come with a Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP). Once you start raking in the winnings, you’re bound to be enticed by the larger tournaments. At times, a $200 entry will give you a shot at a $50,000 first prize.

The problem with the rich games is the competition. You’ll be pitted against the best of the best in DFS. You’ll need an ace in the hole. That’s where the overlay comes in.

An overlay exists when the expected value of an entry is more than the cost. This happens most commonly at the $200 entry level.Let’s say there is a 1,000 person tournament. The prize pool is $180,000.

If the tournament is full, the expected value of your entry is $180. However, if there are only 800 entries, the expected value is $225. You’re (temporarily) $25 richer for entering. Typically, something like the top 150 slots are paid. In the 800 entry scenario, your odds of hitting one of those spots increases dramatically.

When to Start Playing

Without question, the best time to start playing daily fantasy is at the beginning of the season.

If you’re a FanGraphs savant, you’ll have a better idea of player value than the internal pricing system. For example, Steven Souza is liable to start with a price below $3,000 on FanDuel (bargain basement territory). However, we know he could be an average or better fantasy outfielder. Player prices tend to fluctuate wildly in the first month, opening a lot of opportunities for bargain hunting.

DFS newbies, players who specialize in other sports, and those who blew their bankroll in past seasons are also most active at the beginning of the year. April comes with a deep pool of sub-par competitors. If you’re a savvy player in a tournament or league, your odds of winning should easily cover the rake. You can also poach H2H contests against other inexperienced competitors. Just be sure to opt out of small contests against DFS pros.

Professionals

Just like poker, there is a class of DFS professional who play for a living. You want to minimize your contact with them. Most sites display basic stats for player avatars, such as games played and winning percentage. The heavyweights are also easily googled.

If you think somebody above your weight class is on the other side of a H2H contest, you may want withdraw. Conversely, if you consider the buy-in affordable, it might be worth playing the game to get a look at their roster. It could give you some ideas. And hey, you might win.

Some professionals use a simple process like the one I outlined. Most rely on an algorithm to either maximize potential gain or minimize potential loss. They’ll enter dozens of lineups, often in over 100 contests a day. If you play any tournament, you’ll be pitted against them. Any league above the $5 level is liable to have a few pro entries. You don’t need to run from them in a deep format.

Taxes

Like a casino, the sites will issue tax documentation if you win over $600. Don’t get arrested for tax evasion. Plan to pay your taxes.