The Red Sox Will Be Just Fine Without An Ace

The last-to-first-to-last-again Boston Red Sox have completed yet another overhaul, importingHanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, as well as expecting full seasons from Rusney Castillo andMookie Betts, to reinforce an offense that sputtered to a 27th-overall wRC+ finish in 2014. But that’s nothing compared to the changes in the rotation, in which six of the nine pitchers who started at least 10 games last year are gone.

In place of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Jake Peavy,Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster and Felix Doubront, the Sox head into 2015 with a rotation fronted by Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson, as well as holdovers Joe Kelly and Clay Buchholz. For a team that entered the offseason simply needing to find enough arms to field a team for the season, it’s an interesting collection of potentially useful arms.

That said, the idea of “Rick Porcello, Opening Day starter” isn’t exactly going to sell tickets, and that’s the main criticism leveled at Boston this winter: “Where’s the ace?!” Having whiffed on the chance to bring Lester back and so far unable to satisfy Philadelphia’s demands for Cole Hamels, the Red Sox don’t appear to have the guy needed to make a postseason run. Maybe they don’t, but maybe they don’t need to. Here’s why the Red Sox are just fine the way they are — for now, at least.

What they have is better than you think it is

The common perception is that the Red Sox’s rotation is a weakness, so it’s perfectly understandable to be surprised when finding out that the Steamer projection system has the Sox ranked as the fifth-best in baseball. How is that possible? Well, it has depth, for one thing. Boston might be going with quantity over quality, but there’s some merit to that in a sport that chews up pitching arms.

There are only two teams that Steamer sees as having five starters projected for at least 1.0 WAR: the Nationals, obviously … and the Red Sox. Projections are just that, and much of that depends on Masterson and Buchholz rebounding from down seasons; none of this is guaranteed, of course. But the projections aren’t just pulled together without real data inputs either; there are reasons to believe all five of these pitchers can give the Sox a chance to win every night.

That’s because the Red Sox haven’t just haphazardly thrown a group of pitchers together. They’ve put together a collection that perfectly fits their roster and the current conditions of the game.

Pitcher	2014 GB%	Career
Buchholz	46.6	48.8
Kelly	54.9	52.4
Masterson	58.2	56.6
Miley	51.1	48.6
Porcello	49.0	52.1
MLB Avg.	44.8	44.2 (2005-14)

That is, as the table to the right shows, this is a rotation full of ground ball-inducing pitchers, all better (in some cases considerably so) at inducing grounders than the average MLB pitcher. Now consider the infield defense they’ll have to support them. Dustin Pedroia is an elite second baseman, proving at least 11 Defensive Runs Saved in every one of his full seasons. Sandoval is easily an upgrade at third base over Will Middlebrooks. Mike Napoli has turned himself into a surprisingly good first baseman. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts represents the potential weak link; at just 22, there’s still room for him to improve, but it’s not guaranteed. Of course, since three of these pitchers — Porcello in Detroit, Miley in Arizona and Masterson in Cleveland — played in front of defenses that ranged from mediocre to awful last year, it’s a step up for all.

It’s also not an accident that the Sox have added highly regarded pitch-framer Ryan Hanigan to assist young catcher Christian Vazquez, who also is considered very good at framing. Recent research has shown that the bottom of the called strike zone keeps dropping lower and lower — 47 square inches since 2009, by one measure — which helps low-strike pitchers. Miley and Masterson both ranked among the 25 top pitchers as far as pitches to the low part of the zone last year. These pitchers are in perfect position to look better, even if they don’t take massive steps forward.

Porcello in particular seems perpetually underrated, and it’s not hard to see why. In Detroit, he was essentially the fifth starter, but that was less about him than it was about sharing a rotation with guys like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister and David Price. Since 2012, he has been one of the 30 most valuable starters in baseball, and now he’s headed to a situation where his infield and catcher will do far more to support him. If you’re looking for a breakout starter, he’s not a bad one to keep in mind. After all, he’s still only 26.

Besides, even if the term “ace” weren’t subjective, it’s not always easy to know when you have one. After all, few would have considered Corey Kluber an ace heading into 2014, and he won the AL Cy Young Award. Madison Bumgarner clearly improved his reputation with his historic October, but he’s yet to have that real, true top-10 regular season. For someone such as Porcello, it’s quite possible that we’ll be looking at him very differently a year from now.

There’s also plenty of time to get an “ace”

At this point in the winter, the inventory of pitching upgrades is tapped out. James Shields is still out there, but he’s not an “ace” in the sense that Lester and Scherzer are; he’s more of a very good No. 2 or 3 starter. Hamels seems more likely to stay with the Phillies for now than be traded. With the advent of the second wild card making something like 27 of the 30 teams think they have a realistic chance of contending, no one is looking to dump pitching, except for maybe the Nationals, and they’ll surely demand a lot for Jordan Zimmermann or Stephen Strasburg.

But look ahead to midseason, when some teams will have shifted into “sell” mode in advance of what looks to be a stocked 2015-16 free-agent pitching market. The unlikely-to-contend Reds should be willing to offloadJohnny Cueto, who had a Cy Young-caliber season last year. Jeff Samardzija might be available if the White Sox can’t keep pace in a competitive AL Central. Hamels, if he’s not been traded yet, would still be an option. So might Cliff Lee if he’s able to prove he’s healthy after last year’s arm scare. If Zimmermann is moved to a team that can’t extend him and doesn’t contend, he could get flipped again in July.

So there’s still time — and options — to get that No. 1 pitcher, but this team, as constructed, can get to October without what most would consider an ace. That’s because there’s possibly no roster in baseball that’s as deep as these Red Sox, with Steamer viewing them as being tied with Washington as baseball’s best team. Even “lacking” in the rotation, as many consider them to be, the 17 Red Sox players who are projected to be worth at least 1 WAR are easily the most in baseball.

It’s not like we haven’t seen a rotation without a true work horse before. The Baltimore Orioles won the AL East led by a rotation that featured Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen, both very good starters who aren’t close to being “aces” by any stretch of the definition.

Now, can the Red Sox win in October without an ace? That part’s a little harder, because the added days off format in the playoffs means that depth matters less when you can use the cream of the crop more often. (Not that it stopped the title run of the 2013 Sox, who got a good year from Lester, but not a great one.)

The Red Sox are probably still looking for an ace, but they don’t need one now. With the options likely limited these days, they’re better off waiting and seeing what they have first. If they feel the need to upgrade in July, the opportunity should be there. Either way, this team is a very strong contender, “ace” or not.