Using Minor League Statistics To Find Sleepers

Rookies are a crucial part of just about every winning fantasy team, which makes it a necessity for owners to keep close tabs on players who haven’t yet cracked the big leagues. We’re all familiar with the Kris Bryants, Jon Grays, and Byron Buxtons of the world, whose names have been plastered on top prospect lists all over the Internet. These players are good bets to blossom into stars sooner or later — possibly as soon as this year.

But everyone knows those names, meaning these players probably won’t come cheap on draft day. However, top prospects are by no means the only ones who emerge from the minors to make an impact. In fact, some of the most productive rookies emerge from complete obscurity, like Kevin Kiermaier, Yangervis Solarte, and Jacob deGrom did last season.

With the help of the 2015 Steamer projections along with KATOH — a projection system I developed to forecast major league performance through age 28 — I identified some potential sleepers: Prospects you may not have heard of who could wind up being just as valuable as some of the bigger names.

Let’s start with some hitters who could be relevant major leaguers as soon as this year. The projected stat lines are from Steamer, as well as the 2015 Wins Above Replacement number. “WAR through age 28” came from the KATOH system.

Domingo Santana

AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	DEF	2015 WAR	WAR through age 28
.221	.295	.373	18	7	-8	0.5	8.2

Astros outfielder Domingo Santana received a brief, six game cameo in the big leagues last year, but appeared horribly overmatched, striking out in 14 of 18 trips to the plate. Big league performance aside, Santana hit an impressive .296/.384/.474 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A last year, which suggests he could have a bright future ahead of him. His 6’5″ frame allows him to generate lots of power — he’s averaged 21 dingers over the last three seasons. Santana’s a big boy, but he moves pretty well for his size. His speed is only slightly below-average — a 45 on the 20-80 scale — which makes him usable in an outfield corner and allows him to swipe the occasional base now and again. Santana could easily get a good chunk of playing time with Houston at some point in 2015, especially if (when) the Astros fall out of contention and start dangling free-agents-to-be like Colby Rasmus. As long as he can keep his contact issues under control, Santana could make an impact sometime soon — for both the Astros and your fantasy team. His power potential makes him someone worth monitoring in AL-only leagues, and possibly mixed leagues as well.

Jacob Lamb

AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	DEF	2015 WAR	WAR through age 28
.250	.311	.405	16	4	-7	1.0	4.2

After spending most of the year punishing Double-A level pitching, Jacob Lamb was promoted to the big leagues last August, and promptly fell flat on his face by hitting .230/.263/.373. The guy who slugged 59 extra-base hits in 108 minor league games was nowhere to be found, and in his place was a no-hit third baseman. Lamb’s struggles with the D-Backs shouldn’t be thrown out completely — they happened, after all — but they can be somewhat excused by the fact that he was rushed. The Martin Prado trade created a hole at the hot corner, and Lamb was probably thrown into the fire a little too soon. The D-Backs seem set on trying Cuban slugger Yosmanay Tomas at third base, but I’d bet against that experiment lasting very long. If and when Tomas moves to first base or an outfield corner, the third base job will be Lamb’s for the taking. Assuming he finds semi-regular playing time, there’s little reason to think Lamb won’t reach double digits in homers this year. This slugging third baseman should be on your radar in all fantasy formats.

Enrique Hernandez

AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	DEF	2015 WAR	WAR through age 28
.233	.283	.148	11	7	0	0.5	8.7

Enrique Hernandez has really gotten around lately, bouncing from the Astros to the Marlins to the Dodgers all over the course of five months. Along the way, he posted a weighted runs created plus of 110 in 134 big league plate appearances, while playing six different positions — everything but pitcher, catcher, and first base. He made consistent contact (<10% strikeout rate) and hit for sneaky power (11 homers in 98 games) in the minors last year, and could do the same for the Dodgers if given the chance. Hernandez will likely return to Triple-A to start the year — the Dodgers have a perpetual log-jam in the outfield and Justin Turner is penciled in as the team’s utility infielder. But injuries happen, and a hot start in the minors could earn the 23-year-old some chances in the infield as the season wears on. He probably won’t play enough to make an impact right away, but could certainly be a versatile source of power in the season’s second half, especially in NL-only leagues with low position eligibility thresholds.

Ketel Marte

AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	DEF	2015 WAR	WAR through age 28
.235	.264	.305	4	22	6	0.0	8.6

Despite being just 20 years old, Mariners prospect Ketel Marte more than held his own in Double- and Triple-A last year by hitting an impressive .304/.335/.411 while spending time at both shortstop and second base. Even more exciting than his batting line, however, were his 29 steals in 128 games. With Robinson Cano, Chris Taylor, and Brad Miller in the fold, Marte doesn’t fit into the Mariners immediate plans, but that could change in a hurry with an injury or two in Seattle’s infield. It remains to be seen if Marte’s low-strikeout, low-power approach will translate into big league success — his Steamer projection suggests it may not — but Marte can run like the wind. Even if he doesn’t hit right away, he could still be a cheap source of steals in AL-only formats.

Ji-Man Choi

AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	DEF	2015 WAR	WAR through age 28
.245	.316	.384	15	6	-10	1.2	4.6

Mariners first base prospect Ji-Man Choi put up a gaudy .929 OPS across three minor league levels in 2013, which was enough to earn him three appearances on Carson Cistulli’s Fringe Five list. Choi wasn’t quite as dominant this past year, but still managed a respectable .282/.386/.403 batting line in 74 games — most of them in Triple-A. There aren’t many weaknesses in Choi’s offensive game. He walks roughly as often as he strikes out and does it while hitting for power, leading Steamer to peg him for a 102 wRC+ — slightly better than league average. Choi’s a first baseman by trade, but also got some reps in left field last year, giving him multiple avenues for breaking into Seattle’s lineup. With a hot start, he could easily steal playing time from the likes of Logan Morrison and Justin Ruggiano.

Now for some pitchers who are knocking on the door of the big leagues, along with their projected KATOH WARs through age 28…

Anthony Desclafani

3.1 Projected WAR through age 28

Anthony Desclafani pitched in the Marlins system last year, but was dealt to the Cincinnati Reds as part of the package that brought back Matt Latos. Desclafani has pitched well at every minor league stop since he was taken in the sixth round back in 2011, and showed some promise in 13 big league games as well. Despite his ugly 6.27 ERA, the 24-year-old managed to keep both his FIP and SIERA below four in 33 innings of work. He’ll be in the running for the Reds fifth starter spot this spring, and is definitely someone to target in NL-only formats.

Mark Binford

 4.9 Projected WAR through age 28

Mark Binford was selected in the 30th-round back in 2011, but despite his lack of a pedigree, has just kept on producing. The 6’6″ righty has churned out ERA’s in the two’s at almost every stop along the way, including a 2.40 showing in 14 High-A starts last year. The 21-year-old righty also made eight solid starts in Double-A last season, and capped off the year with an 18-inning cameo in Triple-A. His stuff is underwhelming, but he’s consistently shown the ability to get guys out in the minors. He’ll be worth a pick-up in AL-only formats if he finds his way into Kansas City’s rotation.

Nicholas Tropeano

4.3 Projected WAR through age 28

Nicholas Tropeano posted a solid 3.03 ERA in 124 Triple-A innings, and the Astros rewarded him with four starts with the big club down the stretch. While his stuff is nothing special, he manages to get hitters out with a deceptive delivery and a solid changeup. Now a member of the Angels organization, he finds himself seventh on the team’s rotation depth chart. Tropeano might not break camp with the Angels, but injuries are bound to happen. He’ll be a go in AL-only leagues if and when he joins LA’s rotation.

Eric Jokisch

4.0 Projected WAR through age 28

Eric Jokisch spent most of last season with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, where he pitched to an admirable 3.58 ERA in 26 starts before earning a September cameo in Chicago. Jokisch is somewhat buried following the additions of Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, which somewhat clouds his future in Chicago the club. It’s not clear if he’ll have the opportunity to start this year, but a couple of injuries to the Cubs rotation could change that. Although his fastball rarely breaks 90, he’s shown the ability to strike batters out — Steamer forecasts a 20% K% for 2015. That alone makes him worth keeping an eye on in NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues.

Matthew Bowman

3.1 Projected WAR through age 28

After posting impressive numbers in the low-minors, former 12th rounder Matthew Bowman proved his mettle by turning in a solid 3.47 FIP as a 23-year-old pitching in Double- and Triple-A. Although he’s 23, Bowman is still relatively new to pitching — he was primarily a shortstop in college — so he may even have more upside than your average Triple-A pitcher. The Mets have a boatload of starting pitching depth, but some of it comes with substantial injury risk, namely Bartolo Colon and Matt Harvey. Even on that team, there’s a chance Bowman could sneak into the rotation in the season’s second half and help out someone’s NL-only staff.

For those of you in deeper dynasty leagues, I have a few more names. These guys won’t have a meaningful impact in the big leagues this year, but could develop into quality players down the road. First, the hitters.

Alex Verdugo

10.8 Projected WAR through age 28

Dodgers prospect Alex Verdugo will start 2015 as an 18-year-old, putting him years away from big league action. But while he’s pretty far off, his performance in Rookie ball suggests he might have a bright future ahead of him. Verdugo did just about everything well in his pro debut: He made a ton of contact, hit for  power, and flashed good speed by going 11 for 11 on the base paths. As a rule, it’s foolhardy to forecast a hitter’s big league success based on his Rookie ball numbers, but Verdugo has more going for him than his stat line. A second round pick this past June, he also has the tools to back up his performance, earning him an Andre Ethier comp from Kiley McDaniel. Although he’s far away, Verdugo’s a legit power-speed threat who’s worth keeping an eye on in dynasty leagues — especially if his power carries over to full-season ball this year.

Teoscar Hernandez

3.5 Projected WAR through age 28

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez spent most of 2014 with the Astros’ High-A affiliate, where he hit the snot out of the ball before earning a late-season promotion to Double-A. In addition to hitting for power — he belted 21 homers — he also swiped 33 bases in 42 attempts, making for a downright sexy power-speed combo. Hernandez still has some holes in his swing, which might prevent him from hitting for a high average in the majors, but the power and speed are there, and should translate over to the big league level. Still just 22, Hernandez is likely a year away from big league action, but he could be a 20-20 guy come 2017.

Billy McKinney

4.7 Projected WAR through age 28

Up to this point, Billy McKinney’s biggest claim to fame is his inclusion in last July’s Jeff Samardzija/Addison Russell blockbuster, but McKinney could wind up being a useful player himself. He more than held his own as a 19-year-old in High-A, and really turned it on in the season’s final two months by clubbing .301/.390/.432 after becoming Cubs property. McKinney doesn’t really have a stand-out tool or skill, but has hit for a high average in the low minors while also showing decent power and speed. He should be ready to contribute in 2016 or 2017 — assuming the Cubs’ mess of hitting prospects leaves an opening in the outfield.

Auston Bousfield

2.9 Projected WAR through age 28

The Padres selected Auston Bousfield in the fifth round last June, and he immediately started terrorizing Short-Season-A pitching. In 45 games, the centerfielder turned in an impressive .301/.402/.512 batting line with 12 steals. Bousfield was a little old for his level last year, but even so, a power speed combo like that is pretty eye-popping. He’ll head to full-season ball next year, which will be the real test of his abilities; but, as a college bat, he could move through the Padres system pretty quickly. Some have compared him to Chris Denorfia, which doesn’t sound all that exciting until you look at Denorfia’s park-adjusted numbers from San Diego. A slightly-above-average hitter with speed is nothing to sneeze at.

Ozhaino Albies

10.6 Projected WAR through age 28

If you’re looking for a super deep sleeper and don’t mind waiting a few years, I give you Ozhaino Albies, an 18-year-old shortstop in the Braves system. As a 17-year-old in Rookie-ball, Albies made a ton of contact, which helped him post an absurd .364 average in 261 plate appearances. A lack of power likely limits Albies’ upside — 62% of his batted balls were on the ground last year. But even so, his combination speed and bat-to-ball skills could make him a useful big leaguer and fantasy player — especially if he’s able to stick at shortstop.

Now for some far-away pitchers…

German Marquez

2.9 Projected WAR through age 28

After a mediocre showing in Rookie ball, German Marquez really put things together last year in Low-A, fanning 24% of opposing batters in 98 innings last year on his way to a 3.21 ERA. Although you won’t see his name on any prospect lists, Marquez has pretty good stuff. He throws a mid-90’s and compliments it with a solid curveball and changeup. All things considered, Marquez seems like a good bet to develop into a mid-rotation starter. He may stop flying under the radar if he pitches well in High-A this year, so now’s the time to pounce if you’re in a deep dynasty league.

Dylan Unsworth

3.2 Projected WAR through age 28

Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his 5.88 ERA, Mariners hurler Dylan Unsworth’s 2014 performance was actually pretty impressive. In 26 starts in Class-A High Desert — a locale that’s notorious for its high run-scoring environment — Unsworth turned in an impressive 119:19 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. The South African righty is at least a year away from big league action, but showed enough promise in 2014 to suggest he might have a successful career ahead of him. Snap him up now in deep dynasty leagues while his ERA is significantly worse than his strikeout and walk numbers.

Jen-Ho Tseng

2.9 Projected WAR through age 28

Signed as an international free agent in 2013, Taiwanese righty Jen-Ho Tseng turned in an impressive debut season with the Cubs’ Low-A affiliate. The 19-year-old appeared in 19 games — 17 of them starts — and put up an impressive 85:15 strikeout to walk ratio. Tseng’s stuff is nothing special, but he’s demonstrated solid command so far, as evidenced by his 4% walk rate last season. Tseng has already proven his mettle in full-season ball, and should develop into a useful big league starter in time.

Keury Mella

2.6 Projected WAR through age 28

Keury Mella opened the 2014 in the Sally League, where he pitched to a sparkling 2.79 FIP before an undisclosed injury derailed his season in June. He returned to the mound in August, but as a precaution, the Giants dropped him down to the Northwest League. It’s unclear what his injury was, but it didn’t seem to faze him — he continued to mow down upon his return. With a mid-90’s fastball, Mella isn’t exactly a soft-tosser. He may not be a sleeper this time next year if he continues to pitch well in High-A, so now’s the time to pounce.

Greg Harris

2.5 Projected WAR through age 28

A non-prospect heading into the year, Greg Harris garnered some attention by turning in a solid showing as a 19-year-old in Low-A. The 2013 17th rounder posted an impressive 92:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 innings last year, on his way to a 3.55 FIP. Despite his solid performance, the Dodgers shipped him to Tampa Bay this winter as part of the package for Joel Peralta. He’ll get a crack at High-A in 2015, putting him two or three years away from big league action. Still just 20, Harris is a bit of a lottery ticket, but his performance to date suggests he might have a bright future.