Washington’s Path To The World Series

Even before the Washington Nationals ripped off 10 wins in a row and counting, they were extremely well-positioned to win the NL East, if only due to the lack of competition. The Mets, Phillies and Marlins aren’t serious contenders this season, and the Braves have played losing baseball (50-54) for months since getting off to a 17-7 start. Before their winning streak started, FanGraphs had the Nationals’ odds of winning the division at 92.4 percent. Now it’s 98.2 percent. Barring a calamitous collapse, this race is over.

Of course, the Nationals don’t have their goals set simply on a division title. After bowing out in the first round of the 2012 playoffs and missing October entirely in 2013, their mandate is to win the World Series — and it might be the best-positioned National League team to get there. Here’s why.

Underrated staff

The Nats’ pitching ranks No. 2 in ERA and No. 1 in FIP, and a lot of that is due to their outstanding rotation, which also ranks in the top two in those metrics. Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg both rank in the top 10 in the majors in terms of strikeout-to-walk ratio; no NL pitcher with at least 100 innings has walked a lower percentage of hitters than Doug Fister’s 2.9 percent. As a team, the Nationals easily have the lowest walk percentage in baseball, and it’s easy to see that limiting free passes has a direct impact on limiting runs.

Along with Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals have four of the top 20 starters in baseball in the past three seasons, and with the emergence of Tanner Roark, they now have five quality starting pitchers at a time when other contenders are scrambling to simply fill out their rotations. Of course, nobody uses five starting pitchers in short playoff series full of days off, and often the fourth starter barely appears.

What this means is that manager Matt Williams can put at least one, and for some games two, of his outstanding starters into the bullpen for playoff games, and that will be a help because the struggles of closer Rafael Soriano might be the major weakness on this team right now. Soriano has allowed more than twice as many runs in 14 second-half games (10) than he did in 37 first-half games (four). If Soriano is removed from the closer role, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard represent able replacements. And believe it or not, Gonzalez, who has long been a very good pitcher and started in the National League Division Series two years ago, might find himself in the bullpen, simply because he isn’t one of the three best starters here. It’s a good problem to have.

Zimmerman’s potential new role

It has been a tough year for franchise cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman, who broke his thumb in April, strained his hamstring in July, and spent most of his time in between showing that the throwing issues that have plagued him at third base are worse than ever. Though he had a brief cameo in left field when Bryce Harper was injured, Williams returned him to third base before the hamstring injury, pushing superior defender Anthony Rendon to second.

Now, former shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is in town to play second, Rendon is at third and the infield defense is improved. This isn’t the same as saying that the team is better off without Zimmerman, of course; after all, his 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 121 wRC+. But with his hamstring injury likely to keep him out for most of the rest of the regular season, it’s hard to see Williams immediately placing him back at third base after such a long layoff. Remember, the minor league seasons end in the first week of September, so even rehab opportunities are limited.

That means that, if healthy, Zimmerman could be a dangerous multipositional bench bat in October, something few teams can match, and the Nationals wouldn’t have to sacrifice their infield defense to have him.

Other NL contenders have more issues

The Dodgers and Brewers lead their respective divisions and are solid bets to make the playoffs, but issues are mounting for both. The Dodgers in particular have suffered through a brutal run of injuries, particularly to their starting rotation. With Josh Beckett (hip) probably out for the season, Hyun-Jin Ryu sidelined with a glute injury and Zack Greinke worrying about a sore elbow, the team has had to insert waiver-wire retreads Kevin Correia and Roberto Hernandez into the starting rotation. Forget worrying about replacing the ineffective Dan Haren, as was the goal a few weeks ago; now it’s simply about finding enough healthy bodies to fill out a rotation alongside ace Clayton Kershaw.

Ryu should be fine by the playoffs, but even if he and Greinke are both whole at that point — big ifs — the Dodgers still will be in a situation where Haren, Correia or Hernandez would need to start at least one NLDS game, or risk Kershaw on short rest, which didn’t go well in 2013. Add to that concern about the left side of the infield — Hanley Ramirez and Juan Uribe are both injured, meaning Erisbel Arruebarrena and Justin Turner are currently the starters — one of theworst catching situations in baseball, and bullpen uncertainty, and the Dodgers suddenly have plenty of problems to sort through.

It’s not quite as serious in Milwaukee, though the Brewers are currently without Kyle Lohse (ankle) and Matt Garza (oblique). Lohse should be back next week and Garza at some point in September, and the rotation has been buoyed by the unexpected contributions of Mike Fiers. Of course, Fiers isn’t going to keep up a .163 BABIP for very long, and rookie Jimmy Nelson has been merely decent since replacing the deposed Marco Estrada. It’s clear that baseball underestimated the Brewers entering the season, and Pittsburgh’s total collapse has helped, but St. Louis is merely 1.5 games behind and  Milwaukee has been a .500 team (51-49) since a 20-7 start. Unlike the Nationals, the Brewers aren’t nearly as certain of making the playoffs just yet.

October outlook

That leaves the Nationals set up better than any other NL team. It’s not because of the winning streak or even the walk-off wins, as fun as they are. It’s because they have the best rotation in the league, a lineup that doesn’t have holes — each of the eight regular starters, plus Zimmerman, has a wRC+ of better than 100, which is league average — and the easiest path to the playoffs. As the Nationals glide into October, they’ll be the NL favorite to get to the World Series.