Who Could Be The Next Wade Davis?

When we talk about the still-controversial 2012 deal that eventually helped the Royals make it to the World Series, it’s generally referred to as “the James Shields trade.” Shields has been a huge contributor to the Royals (Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding), but it’s easy to forget that he wasn’t the only piece the team got from the Tampa Bay Rays for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and others. The Royals also acquired Wade Davis along with Shields, and Davis has been an enormous piece of the three-headed bullpen monster that has made late-inning comebacks against Kansas City all but impossible.

Davis didn’t start out as a relief star, however. In fact, he didn’t even start out as a reliever. After two mediocre years in the Rays’ rotation, Tampa Bay shifted him to the bullpen, and he responded with a successful 2012 campaign. The Royals put him back into the rotation in 2013, where he was again disappointing, but sent him back to the bullpen this year. It’s a trick the team had pulled last year as well, getting an outstanding relief season from Luke Hochevar after five uninspiring years as a starter. Kansas City’s American League Championship Series opponent, Baltimore, also had three quality relievers in Andrew Miller, Zach Britton and Brian Matusz who had been shifted to the pen after many failed attempts to master a starting gig.

When pitchers are no longer asked to pace themselves for a six- or seven-inning outing, and can instead go all-out in shorter stints, the benefits are obvious. Velocity often increases, as it did for Davis and Britton. An ineffective secondary pitch, such as Miller’s changeup, can be discarded. This isn’t a new idea — even the great Mariano Rivera was once a middling starter — but it’s one that has yielded incredible success in the right situations.

So with that in mind, who might be the next Davis? Let’s identify a few starters, not older than 30, who have struggled in the rotation but remain good candidates to be successful relievers. Obviously, a Clayton Kershaw or David Price would be great in the bullpen as well, but they’re more valuable as starters. We’re looking for someone like Davis, who might not be equipped to help a team in the rotation but could be a lights-out reliever.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

The former Cy Young Award winner kicks off our list in part because this process might already be in motion. Lincecum famously worked out of the bullpen in San Francisco’s 2012 run to the championship, adding far more value in five relief appearances (13 innings, 17 K’s and just two walks, one earned run) than he did in his lone start (four earned runs, nine baserunners allowed in 4 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the NLCS).

Lincecum returned to the rotation in 2013, where he was generally mediocre, then was even worse as a starter in 2014, to the point that he lost his job after a disastrous start in Washington on Aug. 23. (Somehow, Lincecum threw a no-hitter in each season, which didn’t quite make up for the dozens of lousy starts otherwise.) It’s now been three full seasons since Lincecum was last merely an average starter, as his declining velocity — from 94 mph at his peak to a mere 90 this year — has hindered his ability to miss bats, causing his strikeout percentage to drop from 28.8 percent in 2009 to 19.9 percent this year, all while hitters as a whole are striking out more.

Lincecum hadn’t yet appeared in the 2014 postseason before pitching in Game 2 of the World Series, but he’s under contract in 2015 for $18 million. It’s uncertain what his future will be in San Francisco; he could go back to the rotation. But allowing him to work as a one- or two-inning reliever might allow him to regain that lost velocity, as well as cut an inconsistent or ineffective pitch or two, starting with his two-seam fastball. Relief pitchers as a whole threw 1.5 mph harder than their starting pitching counterparts this year, which might be exactly what he needs, although with his admitted issues in working from the stretch, he’d be best served entering with no men on base.

Jacob Turner, Chicago Cubs

“But Turner is just 23,” you might say, “and that’s far too soon to give up on the No. 9 pick in the 2009 draft as a starter.” Perhaps so, but a side effect of aggressive moves — Turner signed a major league contract after being drafted and debuted with the Tigers in 2010 before going to Miami in 2012’s Anibal Sanchez deal — is that he’s now out of options. That means that he can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to other clubs, and when the Marlins tired of his struggles in August, the Cubs were able to swoop in and acquire him for two low-level prospects.

While Miami may have done better to show more patience with a young pitcher, he had mostly struggled in 39 starts for the team, failing to prove he could put hitters away and not showing the elite control or ground-ball skills that a mediocre strikeout artist generally needs to survive. Those issues were all on display in his short time with the Cubs, and he heads into 2015 needing to earn a spot or once again be designated for assignment. Though Turner showed some improvement this year — his walk rate improved and his FIP covered up a dreadful ERA — even the Cubs might not be able to commit to him being in the rotation in 2015.

So why not try the bullpen and see if they can develop a relief ace in the same way they revived Jake Arrieta’s career when he arrived? Turner generally works in the 92-93 mph range, but he was able to touch 95-96 mph in brief relief outings earlier this season, and shorter stints would allow him to hide the fact that he doesn’t really have a true out pitch, especially against lefties. Since all of Turner’s pitches were ranked as below average by FanGraphs this year, even that might not be enough, but allowing hitters to see him multiple times per game certainly isn’t helping. And if it works, well, the Cubs could always move him back down the road if they felt like it.

Joe Kelly, Boston Red Sox

This could also apply to Brandon Workman, or Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster and so on, because the Red Sox have built an impressive stable of talented young pitchers who may or may not actually be best suited to start. Each of Kelly’s 17 appearances in 2014 came as a starter, but he had been split relatively evenly between the rotation and the bullpen in his first two years in the big leagues.

The difference is easy to see:

Career IP K% BB% K%-BB% FIP
As SP 274 2/3 14.5 9.2 5.4 4.19
As RP 52 2/3 21.6 6.2 15.4 3.71
Of the 155 pitchers who have thrown at least 250 innings since Kelly’s 2012 debut, only 10 have had lower strikeout-percentage marks than Kelly’s 14.5 percent as a starter, and several of those (Barry Zito, Jake Westbrook, Joe Saunders, Kevin Correia) are either out of baseball or will be soon. The 9.2 percent walk rate would be one of the 20 worst marks of that group; combine the two, and Kelly’s 5.4 percent K%-BB% as a starter is tied for the fourth worst in that span. The three pitchers worse — Westbrook, Lucas Harrell, and Luis Mendoza — combined to throw 12 1/3 innings of 9.49 ERA ball this year, all by Harrell.

Even as a starter, Kelly routinely sits at 95, but as a reliever, he has dialed it up to 98-99. He’d also be able to consolidate his pitches, losing his ineffective slider, which has been hit to the tune of a .500 slugging percentage over his career. As a starter, Kelly has been merely fine. But as a reliever, he could be a beast.

The issue here is that the Boston rotation is currently beyond questionable, with Jon Lester, Jake Peavy and John Lackey all having departed via trade. Due to need alone, Kelly might be in the rotation in 2015. It might not, however, be where he can add the most value.