Yoenis Cespedes’ Name Value Exceeds His Trade Value

The Boston Red Sox have made two of the biggest splashes of the offseason so far by signing Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, and the only thing we know for sure is that they aren’t done. With potentially nine major league outfielders on the roster and a rotation that might currently feature Wally the Green Monster as the second best starting pitcher after the inconsistent Clay Buchholz, it’s clear that a talented-yet-lopsided roster still needs some work.

More than likely, that’s going to mean trading an outfielder. Maybe that will be Allen Craig or Daniel Nava or Jackie Bradley Jr., but the name that keeps popping up in rumors most often is Yoenis Cespedes, with the idea being that he’s be an attractive name and an established big leaguer who can help Boston land a badly needed pitcher. With Ramirez likely landing in left field and the trio of Rusney CastilloMookie Betts and Shane Victorino probably manning center and right, in some combination, Cespedes is now expendable.

Cespedes has name value, and there’s a whole lot of #narrative that says his departure from Oakland is what single-handedly sunk the Athletics’ season, even though we know that’s not actually true. His powerful throwing arm and Home Run Derby exploits could fill up the highlight films. As such, there’s a good chance Cespedes will be traded in the next several weeks. But when you look behind the headlines, what sort of player can another team really expect? And how much talent is that worth in a trade?

Cespedes’ value

Over the course of his three-year career, Cespedes has a 115 wRC+, making him 15 percent better than the average hitter in that span. It’s also true that much of that came in his debut season with the A’s in 2012, because after a 136 wRC+ that year, he has put up only a 106 mark, with a .298 on-base percentage, in two seasons since. In other words, he has been slightly better than an average hitter over the past two years.

This is the problem, really. For all the positives that Cespedes brings — we’ll get to those in a second — there’s more than a few downsides that come, as well. Despite the fact he has played only three years in the big leagues, he’s older than you likely think of him as being, with his 30th birthday less than 11 months away. In addition, his contract states that he cannot be extended a qualifying offer when his deal ends, which limits his value for teams hoping to recoup a draft pick when he leaves.

There’s also the fact despite the shiny highlights he often produces, his overall performance has been headed in the wrong direction. As you can see in the charts below, since that first year, Cespedes has walked less often each season …

 

… in part because he has swung at — and in particular, made more contact with — more pitches outside the strike zone each season:

If you’re swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, as Cespedes has, you’re less likely to walk. If you’re making contact with those pitches, you’re generally less likely to make good solid contact, and unsurprisingly, Cespedes’ average batted-ball distance has dropped from 291.9 feet (56th in baseball) in 2012 to 275.8 (169th, essentially tied with the light-hitting DJ LeMahieu) in 2014. That might seem counterintuitive given that he hit another 22 homers, but he also tied for second in baseball with 13 homers that were “just enough” to get out, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker.

It’s the increasing tendency toward making contact on balls out of the strike zone that somewhat colors an otherwise positive improvement in strikeout rate, since it’s difficult to strike out when you’re reaching out to make contact on balls that are best laid off of. As pitchers learn his tendencies, it’s going to be on Cespedes to prove he’s able to adjust.

None of this is to say Cespedes is a bad player, of course, just one who might have already shown the best he has to offer. While you should ignore his 100 RBIs — RBIs are a team stat, and Cespedes was lucky enough to have had 432 runners on base for him this year after just 330 and 357, respectively, his first two years — his throwing arm ranked as baseball’s best in the outfield this year, and Steamer projects him for a 2.7 WAR in 2015, making him slightly better than a league-average player.

With one year and $10.5 million remaining on his contract, he represents a lower-priced alternative to some of the other outfield bats on the market, and the majors’ recent fascination with power from the right side of the plate — this is probably related to the surprising quick strikes of the Mets and A’s to land Michael Cuddyer and Billy Butler, respectively — means that if you have a productive righty outfielder (sorry, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford) who isn’t tethered to a massive contract (sorry, Matt Kemp), you have a nice trade piece on your hands.

Of course, the limited amount of team control left reduces his trade value, as does the qualifying-offer exception, as does the fact his name value may exceed his actual value. So now that we know a little better what Cespedes is, what can the Red Sox do?

Red Sox’s options

By signing Ramirez and Sandoval, the Red Sox didn’t just reinforce their own lineup. They also took a free-agent market that was extremely light on offense even before Victor Martinez and Russell Martin signed and robbed it of the last elite talents remaining. Sure, Chase Headley is still out there, but if third base isn’t a need, then teams are left to fight over the scraps of Nelson Cruz (who gives back some of his power value with awful defense), the inconsistent Colby Rasmus and the overrated Nick Markakis.

All of which is to say the Red Sox’s moves simultaneously brought talent to town and made their trade assets more appealing, because teams might now find that a trade is the best route to go with as far as acquiring offense. That’s good news for the Braves, if they want to move Justin Upton, but it’s also good news for the Red Sox, who can take advantage of the weak market to play up Cespedes’ strengths.

That’s probably enough to get the Red Sox a pitching version of a similar player, which means a slightly above-average pitcher with one year left on his deal, such as an Ian Kennedy or Mike Leake. Considering the way Boston’s roster is constructed, that’s probably a worthwhile deal to make, even if it seems like a disappointing one from the perspective of Boston fans.

Perception isn’t always reality. Cespedes is a player with big strengths but significant flaws, ones that limit his overall value, and ones that any team interested in acquiring him should be particularly careful not to forget.





Mike Petriello used to write here, and now he does not. Find him at @mike_petriello or MLB.com.

One Response to “Yoenis Cespedes’ Name Value Exceeds His Trade Value”

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  1. eph_unit says:
    FanGraphs Supporting Member

    Here’s an interesting trade idea. John Lackey has 1 yr left on his deal, and its a cheap option. Trade Craig and Kelly, both of whom probably have no place on a playoff roster, and upgrade at SP. Fair deal, right???!!