Archive for February, 2010

2010 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Rotation
Roy Halladay, RHP
Cole Hamels, LHP
Joe Blanton, RHP
J.A. Happ, LHP
Jamie Moyer, LHP

Closers and Setup
Brad Lidge, RHP
Ryan Madson, RHP

Starting Lineup
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Placido Polanco, 3B
Chase Utley, 2B
Ryan Howard, 1B
Jayson Werth, RF
Raul Ibanez, LF
Shane Victorino, CF
Carlos Ruiz, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Many owners expect Jimmy Rollins to bat .300 and add 25-plus homers to his steal totals. That won’t happen anymore. Rollins career .274 average is a good benchmark to set, as is 20 homers.

Player on the Rise

Now that he is firmly the No. 1 catcher, Carlos Ruiz can use his power to the best of his ability. A 15-homer season with solid RBI numbers could be on the horizon, if you’re willing to take on his sub-par batting average.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Chase Utley – Elite
Ryan Howard – Elite
Roy Halladay – Elite
Jayson Werth – Elite
Shane Victorino – Elite

Top 10 Prospects
1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
3. Trevor May, RHP
4. Juan Ramirez, RHP
5. Sebastian Valle, C
6. Brody Colvin, RHP
7. Tyson Gillies, OF
8. Anthony Gose, OF
9. Antonio Bastardo, LHP
10. John Mayberry Jr., OF

Overall Team Outlook: The Phillies came home with the World Series crown in 2008, but fell just short in 2009. The organization didn’t stand still, making some moves that it feels will have improved the big-league club. They’ll be looking to make it back to the big series again in 2010.

The Starting Rotation: Acquired from the Blue Jays this offseason for a package of prospects, Roy Halladay will head up the Phillies rotation heading into 2010. This is Halladay’s first year in the NL, and his vast arsenal of pitches should lead to utter dominance and competition for the Cy Young award. Cole Hamels was somewhat of a disappointment last year, but wasn’t as bad as everyone thought. He should bounce back a bit in 2010 and be a great No. 2 starter for the Phils.

Joe Blanton will be back to eat some innings and try to keep the Phillies offense in the game. After impressing in the rotation and out of the bullpen last year, J.A. Happ will likely spend an entire season in the starting rotation. Hitters will now have a book on Happ, so he’ll have to adjust in his sophomore season. Jamie Moyer, aka “Old Man River”, will try to give the Phillies one more year of soft-tossing in the five hole, but he’s also coming back from some pretty serious health issues that required hospitalization in the offseason.

The Bullpen: After a dominant 2008, Brad Lidge returned to his old self last year and has forced the Phillies to consider other options for the ninth inning. Ryan Madson is waiting to take over the role, but Philadelphia doesn’t seem convinced he’s the answer. Newly acquired Danys Baez has experience as a closer, and could be asked to take over. With lefty J.C. Romero in the pen all year, they should be able to lock down more games this season.

The Starting Lineup: The club has tailored its lineup to fit the home ballpark, and it has paid dividends. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez all provide left-handed pop and the ability to drive in runs with ease. Utley is also a base-stealing threat and an excellent defender to boot. Howard continues to be a Three True Outcome guy, and needs to hit lefties better to balance out the lineup. Jimmy Rollins will be topping the lineup and should cross home plate quite often. Former No. 2 hitter Shane Victorino is being moved down in the order to accommodate newly acquired third baseman Placido Polanco. Polanco played with the Phillies in the past, and his high-average/low-strikeout game seemed favorable to GM Ruben Amaro this offseason, but his power output is below average for his new position. (He played second base in Detroit).

Victorino should still create havoc on the base paths for opposing teams, but he will also have the chance to knock in some runs this time around. All-around stud Jayson Werth will be counted on to mash lefties and bring balance to the lineup, as well as play stellar defense in right field. Loveable catcher Carlos Ruiz will be back and starting for the Phillies and is better than many may think. His adequate power and above-average walk rate make him a great hitter to have at the bottom of the order, as he can drive in runs before the pitcher comes to the dish.

The Bench: The Phillies made attempts to change the bench after last season. Ben Francisco, acquired in the Cliff Lee trade, will be the fourth outfielder and will be the first right-handed bat off the bench. Ross Gload will back up Ryan Howard, and Juan Castro will provide insurance at the rest of the infield spots. Veteran Brian Schneider will be the No. 2 catcher, with corner infielder Greg Dobbs and outfielder John Mayberry completing the bench.


2010 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

Rotation
Paul Maholm, LHP
Ross Ohlendorf, RHP
Zach Duke, LHP
Charlie Morton, RHP
Kevin Hart, RHP

Closers and Setup
Octavio Dotel, RHP
Joel Hanrahan, RHP

Starting Lineup
Andrew McCutchen, CF
Akinori Iwamura, 2B
Garrett Jones, RF
Andy LaRoche, 3B
Ryan Doumit, C
Lastings Milledge, LF
Jeff Clement, 1B
Ronny Cedeno, SS
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Garrett Jones went bonkers upon reaching Pittsburgh last July. The lefty batter never worked the count particularly well in the minors, walking in slightly more than 7% of his plate appearances, but boosted that figure to more than 11% in the Majors as a result of eight intentional walks.

Player on the Rise

If he can sharpen his control and pull the string more effectively, Morton could be an above-average starter. Andy LaRoche, a career .295/.382/.517 minor league hitter, began driving the ball more as 2009 came to a close.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Andrew McCutchen – Average
Ryan Doumit – Average
Octavio Dotel – Average
Andy LaRoche – Deep League
Garrett Jones – Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
2. Brad Lincoln, RHP
3. Tony Sanchez, C
4. Jose Tabata, OF
5. Tim Alderson, RHP
6. Jeff Locke, LHP
7. Chase d’Arnaud, SS
8. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP
9. Rudy Owens, LHP
10. Starling Marte, OF

Overall team outlook: To assess Pittsburgh’s philosophy, look no further than last year’s opening day lineup: only Ryan Doumit and Andy LaRoche figure to return as starters. Rather than resigning the franchise to languid 70-win seasons, GM Neal Huntington took controversial, bold steps to give the roster an infusion of young, cost-controlled talent. After years of running in place, the team is now fully committed to player development.

The Starting Rotation: Paul Maholm’s ground-ball tendencies, plus control, and durability make him an asset to the Pirates, but his lack of punch-outs hinders his fantasy value. Ross Ohlendorf missed more bats during the second half of the season: 6.3 K/9 after the All-Star break, compared to 5.1 K/9 before the mid-point. Still, be skeptical of the sub-4.00 ERA. His BABIP was just .265. Ohlendorf’s fielding-independent stats suggest an ERA in the 4.50 range. Zach Duke is much like Maholm, with even fewer whiffs and a couple fewer walks. Despite the huge fluctuations in his ERA over the past three years (5.53 in 2007, 4.82 in 2008, 4.06 in 2009), Duke has been the same league-average innings-muncher. After aggravating scouts for years with incongruent scouting reports and results, Charlie Morton has a 3.1 K/BB ratio in Triple-A and was acquired from the Braves in last year’s Nate McLouth deal. The 6’4’’ righty gets grounders with a heavy low-90s heater and also has a quality curve, but his control is intermittent and a lagging change-up makes him vulnerable to lefty batters.

Former Cub Kevin Hart struck out nearly a batter per inning in the minors between the ‘pen and the rotation, but he has issued five free passes per nine innings in the Majors. He may be better suited for relief. Daniel McCutchen refuses to walk hitters and has a great track record, but his stuff is average and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Once a top prospect, Donnie Veal has serious control problems and spent last year in Rule 5 purgatory. He did have a promising Arizona Fall League season, though.

The Bullpen: With Matt Capps in Washington, Octavio Dotel takes over the ninth inning for Pittsburgh. Dotel has the second-highest K rate among relievers over the past two seasons, striking out 11.6 per nine frames. He has walked a batter every other inning over the time period, and Dotel gives up a ton of fly balls. His new home should help that latter problem, as it’s pretty difficult to go yard at PNC Park, particularly for righty hitters. Pumping mid-90s fastballs and mid-80s sliders, Joel Hanrahan has K’d 9.4 batters per nine innings in the big leagues. Unfortunately, he has also walked 5.2 per nine. Evan Meek misses bats and keeps the ball in the dirt, but with a career 6.2 BB/9, he makes Hanrahan look sharp by comparison.

The Starting Lineup: Andrew McCutchen is the sort of impact talent that Pittsburgh has lacked for years. The 2005 first-round pick has a polished approach at the plate; Olympic speed and quick wrists generate more power than you’d expect from his slender frame. He probably won’t post another ISO near .190, but McCutchen is the real deal. Akinori Iwamura won’t wow you offensively, but he rarely chases junk pitches and provides solid OBP figures. Garrett Jones packs a punch, but expecting anything near his 2009 performance would be misguided. A doubles and walks machine in the minors, Andy LaRoche was a league-average batter last season. The 26-year-old corner infielder is no star, but his big second half gives hope that there’s room for improvement.

Ryan Doumit’s season was curtailed by a wrist injury that sapped his bat control. Here’s the Catch-22 with the switch-hitter: his bat is a plus behind the plate, but catching exacerbates his lack of durability. The sheen is off Lastings Milledge; part of last year’s feeble hitting can be explained by a fractured finger, but his lack of strike-zone control is glaring. Speaking of fallen prospects, Jeff Clement may no longer don the tools of ignorance due to knee problems. That puts a big dent in his value, as his lumber would be potent for a backstop, but is ordinary at first base. Ronny Cedeno and Bobby Crosby will battle for the shortstop position, in a contest that would have been intriguing five years ago. Now, it’s just kinda sad.

The Bench: Delwyn Young’s trial run at second base reminded the Bucs why the Dodgers moved him off the keystone in the first place. The switch-hitter doesn’t have the bat for the outfield corners. Ryan Church hasn’t shown much pop lately, as post-concussion syndrome and back spasms have limited him. If healthy, he could work his way into Pittsburgh’s outfield plans. A Rule 5 pick from Florida, John Raynor hit a wall offensively at Triple-A. He’s a big stolen-base threat, however. Given substantial playing time last season, Brandon Moss scuffled and now appears buried on the outfield depth chart. Jason Jaramillo doesn’t have much in the way of secondary skills, but he’s an acceptable backup who could get 200+ at-bats, given Doumit’s injury history.


2010 Houston Astros Preview

Rotation
Roy Oswalt, RHP
Wandy Rodriguez, LHP
Brett Myers, RHP
Bud Norris, RHP
Brian Moehler, RHP

Closers and Setup
Matt Lindstrom, RHP
Brandon Lyon, RHP

Starting Lineup
Michael Bourn, CF
Hunter Pence, RF
Lance Berkman, 1B
Carlos Lee, LF
Pedro Feliz, 3B
Kazuo Matsui, 2B
Humberto Quintero, C
Tommy Manzella, SS
Pitcher

Player in Decline

After being a perennial 30-homer hitter, Carlos Lee has fallen back to earth. Lee will still give you 20+ dingers and a .300 average, but the days of him being your biggest masher are behind him.

Player on the Rise

Striking out 54 batters in 55 innings allowed Bud Norris to maintain a job in the big leagues. With some work on his fastball command, he could turn into a quality waiver wire pick-up.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Lance Berkman – Elite
Carlos Lee – Elite
Roy Oswalt – Average
Michael Bourn – Average
Wandy Rodriguez – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Jason Castro, C
2. Jordan Lyles, RHP
3. Jiovanni Mier, SS
4. Chia-Jen Lo, RHP
5. Ross Seaton, RHP
6. Tanner Bushue, RHP
7. Sammy Gervacio, RHP
8. Jonathan Gaston, OF
9. Jay Austin, OF
10. T.J. Steele, OF

Overall Team Outlook: Since being swept by the Chicago White Sox in the 2005 World Series, the Houston Astros organization has struggled to stay relevant and has not made the playoffs in the past four seasons. With a dismal farm system and a quickly aging MLB club, the club is attempting to put together a contending team this year, but faces a certain rebuild within three years.

The Starting Rotation: Perennial ace Roy Oswalt will once again head the Houston rotation. He has declined the past couple of years and will need to re-establish his fastball as a dominant pitch if he wants to stay on the top of his game. Wandy Rodriguez may be a better pitcher than Oswalt, even if he comes after him in the rotation. Wandy’s nasty curveball is a key part of his repertoire. Ever since a fantastic 2005 and 2006, No. 3 starter Brett Myers has struggled to stay on the field or remain effective when he actually does pitch. A change of scenery may be just what the doctor ordered. Bud Norris made his rookie debut last year and features a solid fastball/slider/change-up arsenal. He’ll come with the usual growing pains that you have to expect from young pitchers. Veteran Brian Moehler is in line to grab the No. 5 spot, but won’t do anything to impress anyone or make his mark on a game.

The Bullpen: Last year, closer Jose Valverde and set-up man LaTroy Hawkins were key cogs in the bullpen. Now, newly acquired arms Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom will battle it out for the right to finish games for the Astros, as both Valverde and Hawkins have moved on. Lindstrom pitched for the Marlins in 2009, while Lyon was a part of the Tigers bullpen. Although Lyons does not have the same raw stuff as Lindstrom, he’s more reliable with a proven track record of average bullpen work.

The Starting Lineup: Michael Bourn is the lone lefty in the lineup, and will be relied upon to set the table and steal bases for the ‘Stros. Bourn is coming off a strong 2009 campaign, but it is unlikely that he will keep pace with the numbers he set in ‘09. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman provide the pop, with Hunter Pence helping out in that department, as well. Berkman and Lee are both in the declining stages of their careers, but both have something to add to any offense. Pence will also be called on to swipe a couple of bases and use his speed to add an extra run or two to the offense. Pedro Feliz and Tommy Manzella are going to be counted on more for their defense than their abilities with the stick. However, Feliz has turned in decent offensive seasons in the past. The catcher position is a weak spot for Houston, with Humberto Quintero looking to hold off J.R. Towles for the job. Towles was supposed to be Houston’s catcher of the future, but he has struggled mightily in 268 Major League plate appearances. Kazuo Matsui returns for another season at second base, and his ability to hit from both sides of the plate helps balanced out the righty-centric order.

The Bench: Former starter Goeff Blum, who hits left-handed, will fill in at both corner-infield spots, with right-handed Jeff Keppinger backing up both middle-infield positions. Jason Michaels will be called on to back up all of the outfield positions, and J.R. Towles is likely to start the year as the back-up catcher.


2010 Kansas City Royals Preview

Rotation
Zack Greinke, RHP
Gil Meche, RHP
Luke Hochevar, RHP
Kyle Davies, RHP
Brian Bannister, RHP

Closers and Setup
Joakim Soria, RHP
Kyle Farnsworth, RHP

Starting Lineup
Scott Podsednik, CF
David DeJesus, LF
Billy Butler, 1B
Rick Ankiel, RF
Jose Guillen, DH
Alex Gordon, 3B
Alberto Callaspo, 2B
Jason Kendall, C
Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

Player in Decline

Those stolen bases might look tempting, but Scott Podsednik benefitted from a .342 BABIP last year. That was about 20 points higher than his expected BABIP, and his career BABIP. A .270-hitting Podsednik isn’t so appealing, when you consider his lack of secondary skills.

Player on the Rise

Luke Hochevar’s career 5.88 ERA might make you want to turn and run, but his career FIP is a more palatable 4.67. He’s not star, but Hochevar has solid control, and an average whiff rate. Alex Gordon is another buy-low candidate, as many fantasy owners have been burned by the glacial start to his career.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Zack Greinke: Elite
Joakim Soria: Elite
Billy Butler: Average
Alex Gordon: Deep League
Rick Ankiel: Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Mike Montgomery, LHP
2. Mike Moustakas, 3B
3. Eric Hosmer, 1B
4. Danny Duffy, LHP
5. Aaron Crow, RHP
6. Wil Myers, C
7. Tim Melville, RHP
8. Kila Ka’aihue, 1B
9. David Lough, OF
10. Jeff Bianchi, SS

Overall team outlook: A club of contradictions, the Royals boasts one of the best starting pitchers on the planet, an emerging slugger at first base, a still-promising third baseman, and a farm system fertile in pitching. Yet, GM Dayton Moore has shown an alarming affinity for low-OBP hitters with fatal offensive flaws. You can see a better future, but you have to squint really hard and pretend that Jose Guillen and Yuniesky Betancourt aren’t there.

The Starting Rotation: In 2009, Zack Greinke graduated from stealth ace to widely praised A.L. Cy Young award winner. He won’t come cheap, but with three plus pitches and superb control, Greinke has staying power. Gil Meche enters 2010 as a huge question mark. He topped 200 frames in his first two years in Kansas City (the first two times he accomplished that feat), with a FIP in the high 3.00s. But he paid for it last year, suffering back and shoulder injuries. Tread cautiously. No, Luke Hochevar isn’t likely to become an ace. However, the first pick in the 2006 draft has pitched more like a mid-rotation starter than his ghastly ERA would suggest. Expect a FIP in the mid-4.00s next year.

Former Braves prospect Kyle Davies still can’t find the strike zone with GPS tracking. As a fly-ball pitcher with average K rates, Davies has to hone his control to have fantasy relevance. Adding a cutter to his arsenal and using his change-up more often, Brian Bannister raised his ground-ball rate significantly. That helped cure the gopher-itis that plagued him in years past. Robinson Tejeda impressed in some late-season starts and misses bats, but he makes Davies look like Greg Maddux.

The Bullpen: Though he battled shoulder problems, Joakim Soria was lights-out when he took the mound. The Mexicutioner whiffed a career-high 11.7 hitters per nine innings, with personal bests in outside swing percentage, contact rate, and first-pitch strike percentage to boot. Soria’s health bears watching (he dealt with a shoulder injury in 2007, as well), but he’s as wicked as they come. Kyle Farnsworth missed significant time with a groin strain, but did manage to whiff more than 10 hitters per nine frames. Juan Cruz was sidelined with a shoulder strain, and has now hit the DL four seasons running. Control has never been his strong suit, and his K rate dipped last year. Tejeda could work his way into the set-up role if he’s not needed in the rotation.

The Starting Lineup: Turning 24 in April, Billy Butler began to tap into his power last year – with an ISO nearing .200 – while also increasing his walk rate. He’s a quality hitter now, and he’s still improving. Alberto Callaspo seems unlikely to repeat last year’s power outburst (his ISO was nearly 40 points higher than his minor league mark), though his bat still trumps Chris Getz’s. Friends don’t let friends draft Yuniesky Betancourt. Mike Aviles, returning from Tommy John surgery, could enter the picture. Alex Gordon’s 2009 was wrecked by a hip injury, and he needs to answer questions about his ability to handle lefties and breaking stuff. Don’t make the mistake of writing him off, though. Despite those faults, he has been a league-average hitter, and there’s still potential for more.

David DeJesus offers steady, if unspectacular, production. Scott Podsednik’s return from the dead was fueled by a very high BABIP. Buyer beware. Slowed by shoulder, Achilles, and groin injuries, Rick Ankiel hit a wall (literally and figuratively) in 2009. If he can remain upright, he’s a good bet to return to his aggressive, slugging ways. Hitting became so unnatural to Jose Guillen that he tore his knee putting on a shin guard. Save yourself the pain of drafting him. Jason Kendall barely slugged .300 last season, and, at 35, he’s not suddenly going to revert to his halcyon days as a Pirate.

The Bench: A former first-round pick of the White Sox, Josh Fields lashes lefties and can actually draw a free pass every now and then. However, he has whiffed in over a third of his Major League plate appearances and is allergic to sliders. Getz makes plenty of contact and can swipe bases, though he offers little pop. He’ll battle it out at second base with Callaspo. Switch-hitter Brayan Pena provides more lumber than Kendall, though his receiving skills are poor. Mitch Maier doesn’t offer much upside. Grit isn’t a fantasy category, so feel free to ignore Willie Bloomquist unless you’re really desperate for stolen bases.


2010 Milwaukee Brewers Preview

Rotation
Yovani Gallardo, RHP
Randy Wolf, LHP
Doug Davis, LHP
Jeff Suppan, RHP
Manny Parra, LHP

Closers and Setup
Trevor Hoffman, RHP
Todd Coffey, RHP

Starting Lineup
Rickie Weeks, 2B
Corey Hart, RF
Ryan Braun, LF
Prince Fielder, 1B
Casey McGehee, 3B
Gregg Zaun, C
Alcides Escobar, SS
Carlos Gomez, CF
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Despite a whole box of tools, Corey Hart has never approached the levels expected of him — largely due to a lack of plate discipline. Now 28, the right fielder most likely is what he is. “What he is” is basically an average hitter playing a position that ideally provides a little more than that.

Player on the Rise

Yovani Gallardo could have a season like last year’s and be a perfectly serviceable fantasy player. That said, he’s young enough that we can reasonably expect an improvement in control (4.56 BB/K last year). If the Brewers give him some run support, he could approach 15 wins with relative ease.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Ryan Braun – Elite
Prince Fielder – Elite
Yovani Gallardo – Average
Randy Wolf – Average
Trevor Hoffman – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Alcides Escobar, SS
2. Brett Lawrie, 2B
3. Mat Gamel, 3B
4. Zach Braddock, LHP
5. Jonathan Lucroy, C
6. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
7. Eric Arnett, RHP
8. Cody Scarpetta, RHP
9. Wily Peralta, RHP
10. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP

Overall team outlook: A couple years ago, Milwaukee was situated as one of baseball’s more exciting teams, with a crop full of young, cost-controlled players. Now, with some departed (J.J. Hardy), some about to become expensive (Prince Fielder), and some plagued by injury (Rickie Weeks), the future is maybe a little less bright in Beer City.

The Starting Rotation: Yovani Gallardo’s 185.2 innings in 2009 outpaced his previous high (from 2007) by 75 innings. A similar workload, combined with a drop in walks (he averaged 4.56 per nine last season), could place him among the Majors’ elite starters. Randy Wolf’s production hasn’t really ever been the problem; it’s been his health. Last year marked the first time he’s hit 200 innings since 2003. Note that Miller Park shouldn’t be as friendly to his ERA as Dodger Stadium. Doug Davis is a bit of a poor man’s Randy Wolf – just with one more walk and one fewer strikeout per nine. Jeff Suppan was, at one point, the definition of league-average. Last year, he had a 1.08 K/BB ratio. Ick. The last spot in the rotation is mostly up for grabs. Manny Parra is a lefty with velocity and sink (48.7% career ground-ball rate) but serious control issues. David Bush’s 4.79 xFIP from 2009 is a lot better than 6.38 ERA he posted.

The Bullpen: The only real way to know Trevor Hoffman’s true age is to cut him in half and count the rings inside. Until he stops striking out eight per nine and saving 40 or so games per season, it’s unlikely that he or the Milwaukee Brewers will let anyone do that. When Hoffman’s not feeling up to it, Todd Coffey is a good candidate to pick up a save or two. The reliever finally lived up to his peripherals in 2009, posting a 2.90 ERA. Unfortunately for everyone, Mark DiFelice had surgery in early December to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Hopefully, he and his cut fastball return in 2011.

The Starting Lineup: If you’re a Brewer fan, you’ll hope Manager Ken Macha is able to resist the temptation of batting either of his speediest speed merchants, Alcides Escobar or Carlos Gomez, at the top of the order, as neither is likely to get on base enough to warrant the extra plate appearances. Both will likely provide 20+ stolen bases in something like a full-time role. In lieu of either, Rickie Weeks – returning from another serious-ish injury – will most likely assume the leadoff role for 2010. Corey Hart batted second more often than anywhere else in the lineup last year – a bit of an oddity considering his questionable plate discipline (although his walk rate is considerably higher in the two-hole than anywhere else in the lineup). Ryan Braun frightens opposing pitchers and is possibly still getting better. Prince Fielder frightens pitchers, too, and is possibly still getting bigger*. Expect Casey McGehee’s BABIP to regress from the .335 he posted last year, perhaps making his hold on the fifth spot somewhat tenuous. Gregg Zaun is a useful option at catcher while prospects Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome develop in the high minors.

*Obligatory weight comment

The Bench: Like Kanye West, Jody Gerut is curious as to why you won’t let him be great. In the meantime, he’ll play a back-up role in the outfield along with grizzled vet Jim Edmonds. If the Carlos Gomez Experiment fails, either guy could be in line for more plate appearances. Craig Counsell ditched his funny batting stance in 2009 but also posted a 2.8 WAR as the Brewer infield slowly fell apart. He might very well be the Practically Perfect Utility Player.


2010 San Francisco Giants Preview

Rotation
Tim Lincecum, RHP
Matt Cain, RHP
Barry Zito, LHP
Jonathan Sanchez, LHP
Madison Bumgarner, LHP

Closers and Setup
Brian Wilson, RHP
Jeremy Affeldt, LHP

Starting Lineup
Aaron Rowand, CF
Freddy Sanchez, 2B
Pablo Sandoval, 3B
Aubrey Huff, 1B
Mark DeRosa, LF
Edgar Renteria, SS
Nate Schierholtz, RF
Bengie Molina, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Matt Cain stranded a ton of base runners and got lucky with the batted balls last year, so he is the most likely player to take a step back. Most of the starting lineup is otherwise old and already in the midst of their decline periods, so no warning is needed.

Player on the Rise

The team boasts a fearsome duo of young battery mates in Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, and with the pitchers’ velocity drop late last year, the bet here is that the catcher will shake off his late-season fatigue and put together the better debut season if he can push Molina out of the way.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Tim Lincecum – Elite
Brian Wilson – Elite
Matt Cain – Elite
Pablo Sandoval – Elite
Mark DeRosa – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Buster Posey, C
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
3. Zach Wheeler, RHP
4. Thomas Neal, OF
5. Dan Runzler, LHP
6. Roger Kieschnick, OF
7. Brandon Crawford, SS
8. Ehire Adrianza, SS
9. Clayton Tanner, LHP
10. Tommy Joseph, C

Overall team outlook: Brian Sabean continues to run out declining and generally uninspiring veterans on offense, but since he was lucky enough to run into some serious starting pitching, his teams continue to be relevant late in the season. Is this the year a few of his veterans drink from the fountain of youth and score just enough runs to make it to the postseason?

The Starting Rotation: This is the rare starting rotation where every pitcher is rosterable in standard 12-team mixed fantasy leagues. Sure, Tim Lincecum and his incredible strikeout rate is the prize, but even all the way down to rookie Madison Bumgarner, the Giants’ staff offers something for everyone. Matt Cain may take a step back next year if his luck stats are to be trusted, but even with a slightly higher WHIP, he’ll be a solid mid-rotation fantasy starter.

Barry Zito has gone from laughing stock to afterthought to spot starter over the last three years. He plays enough games against the Padres to be interesting from time to time – and fantasy owners don’t have to pay his ridiculous salary. Jonathan Sanchez may actually be the most divisive Giants starter in fantasy circles – you either believe in his strikeouts, or you think the walks will keep him from ever fulfilling his potential.

The Bullpen: Beach Boy Brian Wilson made huge strides last year by increasing his strikeout rate and decreasing his walk rate. His luck stats don’t scream regression, but the projections have him taking a step back and losing some of those gains. No matter, he’ll still be a top closer, if only because he looks relatively stable, is young, and plays for a team that should have plenty of low-scoring games and closing opportunities. Jeremy Affeldt rode his plus fastball/curveball combination to the best ERA of his career, but the underlying stats weren’t as pristine. It’ll take an injury to make him a closer.

The Starting Lineup: The 26th-ranked offense in baseball can only get better in 2010, but Sabean sure loves to acquire mediocre veterans, doesn’t he? That description can pretty much describe every player in the starting lineup other than young stud Pablo “Kung Fu Panda” Sandoval, whose game actually resembles his less-popular nickname, Fat Ichiro, with its high-BABIP, high-contact, high-wire approach. It’s nerve-wracking to recommend a guy with such a high BABIP, but he seems to have mastered some ability there. Otherwise, the rest of the offense features players that are best suited as late-round positional fillers at best.

Freddy Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Mark DeRosa, Edgar Renteria, Bengie Molina, and Aaron Rowand are all below-average fantasy players that shouldn’t be rostered in traditional mixed leagues unless they happen to be hot while your starter is injured. Only Nate Schierholtz joins Sandoval on the better side of his peak, and he has yet to turn in a Major League performance that looks anything like his Triple-A success (.925+ OPS in two seasons there). If he holds on to his job all year, he may put up a .280/20/80 season that will come cheaply and be a boon to deep league managers.

The Bench: Despite all the hand-wringing about Fred Lewis failing to develop further, the young man has done well against righties and may actually push Mark DeRosa into a super-utility role many days. He’s worth a thought or two in deeper leagues as one of the few younger players in this offense. We know who Juan Uribe is, and it’s not very exciting. Eugenio Velez is young and fast, he just doesn’t make enough contact. Travis Ishikawa is also young, and could have made a glove-and-OBP player against righties at first base, but will have to play his way through Huff to matter.


2010 Minnesota Twins Preview

Rotation
Scott Baker, RHP
Carl Pavano, RHP
Kevin Slowey, RHP
Nick Blackburn, RHP
Francisco Liriano, LHP

Closers and Setup
Joe Nathan, RHP
Matt Guerrier, RHP

Starting Lineup
Denard Span, CF
Orlando Hudson, 2B
Joe Mauer, C
Justin Morneau, 1B
Jason Kubel, DH
Michael Cuddyer, RF
Delmon Young, LF
J.J. Hardy, SS
Brendan Harris, 3B

Player in Decline

Although precipitous declines are not likely, both Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer are coming off career years. Some of this could be a shift in true talent, but most of it was probably luck. They should hit closer to their career averages than their 2009 performance.

Player on the Rise

Outfielder Denard Span had a good 2009, but he could be even better in 2010. He has youth on his side and the speed to steal 30 bases if he starts running a little more often and converts at a higher rate.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Joe Mauer: Elite
Justin Morneau: Elite
Joe Nathan: Elite
Scott Baker: Average
Denard Span: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Aaron Hicks, OF
2. Wilson Ramos, C
3. Kyle Gibson, RHP
4. Danny Valencia, 3B
5. Angel Morales, OF
6. Miguel Sano, SS
7. Ben Revere, OF
8. Joe Benson, OF
9. Jeff Manship, RHP
10. David Bromberg, RHP

Overall team outlook: The Twins club returns as nearly the same team that won the AL Central in a 163rd game against the Detroit Tigers last year. And the club should be just as competitive in 2010, its first year in Target Field, since the AL Central brethren (unlike the Mariners, Yankees, and Red Sox) made few impact moves.

The Starting Rotation: Heading into spring training, four of the five spots in the Twins’ rotation are set. Scott Baker is the ace of the staff; he always has great K/BB ratios, leading to nice number of Ks with a good WHIP. However, he gives up too many fly balls, and thus home runs, to post an elite ERA. He is a solid mid-rotation pitcher in all leagues. Kevin Slowey should be ready to go for spring training after his September surgery. Like Baker, he gives up lots of fly balls, but has elite – even better than Baker’s – K/BB ratios. If he comes back from the injury, Slowey could be a very good fantasy pitcher.

Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn round out the four set rotation spots: both should only be considered in deep-mixed or AL-only leagues. The fifth spot is up for grabs and the most intriguing candidate, from a fantasy perspective, is Francisco Liriano. He had a terrible 2009, but he was amazing pre-Tommy John and his numbers in the 2009-2010 Dominican Winter League were encouraging.

Bullpen: Joe Nathan had another extraordinary year closing for the Twins in 2009. He is one of the top-five closers heading into 2010. If anything happens to him, Matt Guerrier should be first in line for saves, but if Pat Neshek comes back strong from Tommy John surgery he could be in the running as well.

Starting Lineup: Even if Joe Mauer regresses a bit from his amazing 2009, he is still late first-round or early second-round talent and the top fantasy catcher. Justin Morneau, the Twins’ only other elite fantasy hitter, will be ready for spring training after missing the final three weeks of 2009 with a stress fracture in his back. After that, the Twins lineup features guys who are average-at-best, shallow-league contributors. Newly acquired J.J. Hardy will be the starting shortstop and he looks to return to his 2007-2008 form after an ugly 2009. Brendan Harris and Nick Punto round out the infield and bring positional flexibility, but neither has much value at all with the bat and should be avoided outside of the deepest AL-only leagues.

With the trade of Carlos Gomez the outfield is locked in with Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young. Cuddyer had a great 2009, hitting more than 30 homers for the first time. He is a serviceable third outfielder but some regression is likely, so don’t pay for his 2009 performance. Span is also a fair third outfielder, but has more upside since 30 steals in not out of the realm of possibility. Jason Kubel will be the starting DH, but he played enough outfield in 2009 to qualify as a fielder in 2010. Like Cuddyer and Span, he is an okay third outfielder, but like Cuddyer, Kubel is coming off a career year that will not likely be replicated so he could be overvalued.

Bench: The Twins signed Jim Thome as a bench player. He should get a good amount of playing time and showed in 2009 that he can still hit. There is chance he could get regular playing time against right-handed pitchers if the Twins club loses faith in Young. (Kubel would take over in left and Thome would DH). Alexi Casilla will back up second, and has immediate fantasy value if he finds a regular spot because of his potential to steal some bases.


2010 Cincinnati Reds Preview

Rotation
Aaron Harang, RHP
Bronson Arroyo, RHP
Johnny Cueto, RHP
Homer Bailey, RHP
Micah Owings, RHP

Closers and Setup
Francisco Cordero, RHP
Nick Masset, RHP

Starting Lineup
Drew Stubbs, CF
Orlando Cabrera, SS
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Scott Rolen, 3B
Jay Bruce, RF
Chris Dickerson, LF
Ramon Hernandez, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

After pitching 210-plus innings from 2005-2007, Aaron Harang has yet to pitch more than 185 frames. His strikeouts have also declined, and his walks have risen. Not a recipe for success. This former fantasy stud is no longer worth your time.

Player on the Rise

In 42 big league games, Drew Stubbs has stolen 10 bases. Stubbs was a stealing machine in the upper minors, and with playing time on his side he should be able to at least double his 2009 mark. Just keep in mind that he’ll pile up the strikeouts, which will also bring down his batting average.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Brandon Phillips – Elite
Joey Votto – Elite
Francisco Cordero – Average
Jay Bruce – Average
Johnny Cueto – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
2. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
3. Mike Leake, RHP
4. Todd Frazier, OF
5. Chris Heisey, OF
6. Brad Boxberger, RHP
7. Travis Wood, LHP
8. Zack Cozart, SS
9. Juan Francisco, 3B
10. Matt Maloney, LHP

Overall Team Outlook: Early in the offseason, the Reds organization was rumored to be cutting budget; after moving no one, though, it added to the payroll by signing Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman and veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera. The team is looking to compete this year and beyond, and could make some noise in the NL Central if the pitching staff can improve and stay healthy.

The Starting Rotation: The Reds’ rotation will likely be its downfall at the start of the season, but could improve towards the second half. Aaron Harang is back for a seventh season in Cincy, but isn’t as good as he once was. A diminished ground-ball rate has killed him in recent seasons, and will need to improve if he wants to succeed. Bronson Arroyo will be looking to improve his strikeout rate and become a 2 WAR pitcher again in 2010. It seems like yesterday that Johnny Cueto was being called up to the big leagues, but this will be his third season in The Show. Like Arroyo, Cueto will be working on bringing his strikeout rate back to its past levels. Former No. 1 prospect Homer Bailey will be given another shot at the rotation, as will Micah Owings. Reinforcements could arrive after the All-Star break if the expected call-up of Aroldis Chapman actually happens. Also, former ace Edinson Volquez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but is a long shot to make enough starts to be valuable.

The Bullpen: Closer Francisco Cordero posted his fifth career 30-plus save season in 2009 and is back once again to lock down the ninth innings. In 2009, Cordero’s strikeout rate dropped below a batter per inning for the first time since 2002. Veteran Arthur Rhodes will be the lefty set-up man, and righty Nick Masset will handle the rest of the eighth-inning duties.

The Starting Lineup: First baseman Joey Votto will continue to anchor the Reds lineup and will be counted on to drive in runs. Votto’s .418 wOBA was fourth-best in the Majors last season. Brandon Phillips will also be back to spark the offense, in the batter’s box and on the base paths. After coming to the plate less than 400 times last year, Jay Bruce will try to turn in a full 2010 in right field. Bruce has an insane amount of power and will likely mash at least 20 homers again in 2010. Acquired late last season, Scott Rolen will be the Reds’ everyday man at third base and will be expected to play great defense and knock in base runners at the plate. Rolen is nearing his last lap, but he may have a good year or two left in him.

Chris Dickerson will attempt to playleft field, and his blazing speed will always make him an interesting and fun player to watch and root for, as well as have in your lineup. Veteran Orlando Cabrera will plug the hole at short for a year, with 2010 being his first season in the NL since he was traded to the Red Sox in 2004. After a decent rookie campaign, Drew Stubbs will get a shot as the full-time center fielder in 2010 and should make the best of it. Behind the plate, veteran Ramon Hernandez will look to turn in another unspectacular, yet solid, year.

The Bench: Paul Janish was looking forward to being the starting shortstop, but he will now be relegated to bench duty. Janish plays good “D,” but his bat has been far below replacement level to this point. Speedster Willy Taveras will be back-up in the outfield, and will likely be used as a pinch runner. Outfielder Wlad Balentien, catcher Ryan Hanigan, and utility man Drew Sutton will complete the crew on the pine.


2010 Cleveland Indians Preview

Rotation
Jake Westbrook, RHP
Fausto Carmona, RHP
Justin Masterson, RHP
David Huff, LHP
Aaron Laffey, LHP

Closers and Setup
Kerry Wood, RHP
Chris Perez, RHP

Starting Lineup
Grady Sizemore, CF
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
Shin-Soo Choo, RF
Jhonny Peralta, 3B
Travis Hafner, DH
Matt LaPorta, 1B
Michael Brantley, LF
Lou Marson, C
Luis Valbuena, 2B

Player in Decline

To be sure, Asdrubal Cabrera is a quality fantasy player. But his 2009 performance might be hard to repeat. He had a .362 BABIP, 20 points above his career average. There’s nothing wrong with targeting him, but expect a batting average closer to the .290 range than his .308 mark last year.

Player on the Rise

Looking for a cheap source of steals? Michael Brantley could be your man. The lefty batter won’t drive the ball, but he controls the strike zone and is a skilled base runner. Brantley swiped 46 bags at Triple-A last year. He’s an efficient base thief, too.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Grady Sizemore: Elite
Shin-Soo Choo: Average
Asdrubal Cabrera: Average
Matt LaPorta: Deep League
Justin Masterson: Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Nick Hagadone, LHP
5. Hector Rondon, RHP
6. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
7. Jason Knapp, RHP
8. T.J. House, LHP
9. Michael Brantley, OF
10. Alexander Perez, RHP

Overall team outlook: With Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez finding new zip codes last summer, the Indians organization is in full-blown rebuilding mode. The offense figures to be potent. However, the starting rotation is in disarray. There are talented arms on the cusp of the Majors and several more in the pipeline, but growing pains are inevitable.

The Starting Rotation: There might not be a less-settled unit in the Majors. Jake Westbrook, formerly a worm-killing, innings-eating control artist, looks to return from Tommy John surgery. His lack of whiffs limits his fantasy appeal, though. Have you seen Fausto Carmona’s sinker? He has lost all semblance of control since those midges swarmed him during the 2007 playoffs. Perhaps it was an omen. Speaking of sinkers, Justin Masterson has a nasty one that eats up righty batters. However, his low three-quarters release makes him vulnerable to lefties, and he must do a better job of limiting free passes.

David Huff is the best of Cleveland’s gaggle of low-upside lefties. His stuff isn’t great, but Huff has a strong minor league track record. Aaron Laffey, never one to miss bats, suffered an oblique injury and failed to paint the corners. Jeremy Sowers walked more batters than he whiffed last year, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher, too. Nothing to see here. Carlos Carrasco had an ugly big league intro, but he had a 3.30 K/BB ratio at Triple-A and has a nice fastball/change-up combo. The breaking stuff needs work. Mitch Talbot gets grounders and is stingy with the walks. He’s a big-league-ready fourth or fifth starter.

The Bullpen: Cleveland tossed considerable cash at Kerry Wood in free agency prior to the ’09 season, only to watch him struggle with his control and post a 4.15 FIP. His fastball was the culprit, as Wood’s mid-90s gas was 1.5 runs worse per 100 pitches than it was in 2008. Batters chose to let him back himself into a corner, swinging at few outside pitches. Wood should bounce back somewhat next year, but Chris Perez is breathing down his neck. Perez loses the strike zone at times, but the former Cardinals prospect has a sizzling fastball and slider, and punched out 10.7 hitters per nine frames last year.

The Starting Lineup: Matt LaPorta underwent hip and toe surgeries in October, so he might be behind as spring training opens. The key piece in the C.C. Sabathia swap, LaPorta has top-shelf power and a patient approach. Luis Valbuena showed more thump than expected, but he struggles against southpaws and will have to hold off Jason Donald. Though he’s likely to regress somewhat, Asdrubal Cabrera is a quality shortstop who added some steals to his game. Chopping the ball into the dirt more than 50% of the time, Jhonny Peralta had a power outage last season. He had trouble catching up to fastballs, as his performance against heat declined by a run per 100 pitches seen compared to 2008.

Michael Brantley has limited pop, but he’s a burner with a clue at the plate. You’ll never have another chance to acquire Grady Sizemore at a discount, so draft him and smile as he returns to his 2005-2008 level of production. He was hobbled by a sports hernia and an elbow injury last season, as well as a lower-than-usual BABIP. A healthy Sizemore is still a first-round talent. Shin-Soo Choo brings patience, power and surprising speed to the table. While he might not repeat 2009, he’s a well-rounded fantasy option. Travis Hafner is no longer a menacing slugger, and his aching shoulder continues to be a problem. However, Pronk did bounce back from an abysmal 2008 showing. Lou Marson has limited time to prove he’s more than a handy back-up backstop, as switch-hitting force Carlos Santana isn’t far off.

The Bench: Entering 2009, Andy Marte’s career was on life support. Once the pride of the Braves system, Marte devolved into a hacking mess, tanking in trials with the Indians in 2007 and 2008. Though still a free swinger, he raked at Triple-A last year and didn’t totally embarrass himself in the Majors. Trevor Crowe has some speed and a decent eye, but a lack of pop and injuries resign him to a back-up role. Donald scuffled at Triple-A last year while hindered by a knee injury. He could be Valbuena’s caddy against lefty pitching.


2010 Seattle Mariners Preview

Rotation
Felix Hernandez, RHP
Cliff Lee, LHP
Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP
Ian Snell, RHP
Jason Vargas, LHP

Closers and Setup
David Aardsma, RHP
Brandon League, RHP

Starting Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki, RF
Chone Figgins, 3B
Milton Bradley, LF
Jose Lopez, 2B
Casey Kotchman, 1B
Franklin Gutierrez, CF
Ken Griffey Jr., DH
Jack Wilson, SS
Rob Johnson, C

Player in Decline

Decline is too strong a word here, but expecting Chone Figgins to repeat his six-win season is too optimistic. He should remain a productive player, though.

Player on the Rise

Brandon League actually broke out last season, but few people seemed to notice thanks to his artificially-high ERA. If League maintains his new found splitter, watch out for him to start vulturing saves from David Aardsma and late inning wins from high-leverage situations.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Ichiro Suzuki: Elite
Felix Hernandez: Elite
Cliff Lee: Elite
Chone Figgins: Average
David Aardsma: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Dustin Ackley, OF
2. Michael Saunders, OF
3. Adam Moore, C
4. Carlos Triunfel, 3B
5. Alex Liddi, 3B
6. Nick Franklin, SS
7. Michael Pineda, RHP
8. Gabriel Noriega, SS
9. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B
10. Nick Hill, RHP

Overall team outlook:The Seattle Mariners, at the time of publication, appear to be right up there with Texas and Anaheim heading into the 2010 season as a roughly mid-80 win team. It’s been a winter full of activity for the Mariner front office and they’ve done a remarkable job of patching holes with limited outlay in the free agent market.

The Starting Rotation:The starting rotation is going to get the lion’s share of attention in 2010. Fronted by the newly extended Felix Hernandez and newly traded-for Cliff Lee, there is probably no better 1-2 in baseball on paper. Both are legitimate Cy Young candidates on their own, but in Safeco Field and in front of another year of stellar defense, it would not surprise us if they ended up in an Adam Wainwright-Chris Carpenter type of situation by the end of the year. Behind those two the picture is less clear.

Ryan Rowland-Smith can be a solidly average starter, and Ian Snell could be anywhere from awful to good depending on which version shows up. There are numerous candidates for the fifth spot in Doug Fister, Luke French, Garrett Olson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Jason Vargas, and the ones left out will help provide some decent depth both in the bullpen and in Triple-A.

The Bullpen: The bullpen appeared good last year, for a time leading the league in ERA, but it was never actually all that successful, getting by with good luck. David Aardsma was legitimately good, though, as were Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley. All three return this year and should be bolstered by the addition of Brandon League, a dynamite reliever and another flamethrower. Four above-average righties give the Mariners pen some much better potential this season. Leftovers from the fifth starter competition, along with a few other names like Nick Hill, should round out the back of the pen.

The Starting Lineup: It’s not a menacing lineup on paper, and offense is not likely to be a strong suit for the 2010 Mariners, but there’s some upside here. Mostly, it’s upside over the 2009 team, which scored a league-worst 640 runs. Using 2009 totals to estimate 2010 performance is always a bad idea, since people tend to forget to regress those 2009 totals beforehand. Starting from scratch and building up projections focused solely on 2010 is always the best way to go. Doing so for the offense this season gives us an unexpected conclusion. While seemingly unimproved from 2009, the group of players project to score in the range of about 730 runs, a massive improvement. The reasons for this are an improvement in OBP among hitters and general regression away from the totals received at shortstop, third base, and left field, which were universally black holes for the 2009 team.

In addition to improved discipline at the plate, the Mariners lineup in 2010 is much better suited to the confines of Safeco Field. Both newcomers Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins are switch-hitters, giving manager Don Wakamatsu more flexibility and allowing the team to put as many as five hitters in the left-handed batter’s box, where Safeco actually helps offense.

The Bench: Bench depth could be a weak point for the Mariners. Carrying Ken Griffey Jr., whose only role is basically as a backup DH, hurts the flexibility that the starting lineup provides. To that end, the Mariners might consider carrying an 11-man pitching staff in order to add another bench slot. One of Adam Moore or Josh Bard will be the backup catcher, and Jack Hannahan and probably a yet-unsigned right-handed outfield bat will be in place to cover the other seven positions in the field.