Archive for February, 2010

2010 Texas Rangers Preview

Rotation
Rich Harden, RHP
Scott Feldman, RHP
Derek Holland, LHP
Tommy Hunter, RHP
Brandon McCarthy, RHP

Closers and Setup
Frank Francisco, RHP
C.J. Wilson, LHP

Starting Lineup
Julio Borbon, CF
Michael Young, 2B
Josh Hamilton, LF
Vlad Guerrero, DH
Ian Kinsler, 2B
Nelson Cruz, RF
Chris Davis, 1B
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
Elvis Andrus, SS

Player in Decline

Vlad Guerrero and Michael Young are the only projected regulars more than 30 years of age. Both should be fine, although Vlad’s knees (and plate discipline) are always of some concern.

Player on the Rise

Neftali Feliz set the baseballing world — and catchers’ gloves — on fire during his 31 relief innings in 2009. The Rangers will give him a chance to crack the starting rotation in 2010.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Ian Kinsler: Elite
Michael Young: Average
Nelson Cruz: Average
Rich Harden: Average
Frank Francisco: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Neftali Feliz, RHP
2. Justin Smoak, 1B
3. Martin Perez, RHP
4. Tanner Scheppers, RHP
5. Kasey Kiker, LHP
6. Robbie Ross, LHP
7. Wilmer Font, RHP
8. Mitch Moreland, OF
9. Max Ramirez, C
10. Jurickson Profar, SS

Overall team outlook: Last year marked the first season since 2004 that Texas posted a winning record. A group of promising, cost-controlled players (Nelson Cruz, Julio Borbon, Elvis Andrus) and an improved pitching staff (including Rich Harden) should help the club remain competitive while preserving fiscal sanity.

The Starting Rotation: Last year, Rich Harden was the best of all starters at making batters swing and miss. That’s a pretty good skill for a pitcher to have. Of course, he’s also a perpetual injury candidate. The only question for the Rangers, who signed the righty for $7.5MM plus incentives, is: “Do you feel lucky?” Scott Feldman probably won’t win 17 games in 2010. That said, his cutter should continue to depress his BABIP numbers and control lefties. Derek Holland is better than his 6.12 ERA. He should strike out more than seven per nine while walking about three. Last year’s 4.38 xFIP is probably more likely as 2010’s ERA.

Young Tommy Hunter’s 4.10 ERA last season is a bit surprising. It’s also unlikely to be repeated, as the righty strikes out fewer than six per nine and seems unlikely to top a 40% ground-ball rate. His walk rate makes him serviceable but unexciting. The fifth spot in the rotation is up for grabs. Brandon McCarthy is a safe choice but gives up a bunch of long flies. After dominating in Japan, Colby Lewis is a contender for the fifth spot. Finally, Neftali Feliz will try to harness his electric stuff in the service of a starting role.

The Bullpen: Frank Francisco is the closer in Texas. The big righty has posted a 3.41 K/BB ratio over the last two seasons. His only nemesis is injury. If and when such a thing were to happen, C.J. Wilson has closed out games before. His 2009 was particularly impressive: 10.26 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, 55.4% GB. Former closer Chris Ray came to Texas in the trade that sent Kevin Millwood to Baltimore.

The Starting Lineup: Word on the streets (and in the newspapers) is that Julio Borbon will be leading off and playing center for Texas. He’s a very promising fantasy player, combining a .300 batting average with 30 or 40 stolen bases. Some players are more productive in fantasy than in real baseball. Michael Young is one of them. He’s not bad at all. It’s just, he’s reliant on his average for production. Josh Hamilton will look to stay injury-free and build on his success in 2008. His new position is left field. How much does Vlad Guerrero have left? Enough, probably, but he’s also not much better than, say, Luke Scott at this point. Ian Kinsler hit 13 more homers in 2009 than in 2008 to become the only member of the 30-30 club in 2009. Only problem is, his increased fly-ball rate created a pretty serious dip in his BABIP. It’ll be interesting to see if he sticks with that approach in 2010.

Right fielder Nelson Cruz entered 2009 still attempting to evade the Quad-A label. He left 2009 as roughly a four-win player, displaying an above-average bat and glove. His 20/24 stolen base rate was pretty good, too. No, he didn’t bat .300 as Bill James’s projections suggested he might – in fact, he didn’t even bat over .240 – still, Chris Davis is only 24 and possesses awesome power. CHONE likes him to rebound (.268/.321/.487), while ZiPS is more bear-ish (.251/.300/.475). It’s a rule in baseball that a team needs to field a catcher. Neither Taylor Teagarden nor Jarrod Saltalamacchia distinguished himself in that role last season. Finally, Elvis Andrus probably won’t post league-average offensive numbers anytime soon, but he was worth about a win in the field in 2010. Also, he’s a good candidate to steal 30+ bases again.

The Bench: For the first time in his career, Khalil Greene could play in something resembling a hitter’s park. Between the baleful effects of PETCO and then the baleful effects of the anxiety disorder he suffered through last season, it’s hard to say exactly what Greene is now. It’ll be interesting to see. Outfielder David Murphy is an above-average hitter and, as a corner outfielder, defender. Max Ramirez almost went to Boston for Mike Lowell in the offseason. Whether he’s still a catcher remains to be seen.


2010 Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Rotation
Ricky Romero, LHP
Shaun Marcum, RHP
Brandon Morrow, RHP
Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
David Purcey, LHP

Closers and Setup
Kevin Gregg, RHP
Scott Downs, LHP

Starting Lineup
Alex Gonzalez, SS
Aaron Hill, 2B
Adam Lind, LF
Vernon Wells, CF
Lyle Overbay, 1B
Edwin Encarnacion, 3B
John Buck, C
Randy Ruiz, DH
Travis Snider, RF

Player in Decline

As mentioned in the Jays team review, Lyle Overbay could be motivated in 2010, as it is his walk year. But his strikeout rate has also increased each of the past three seasons and hit his highest mark in six years (22.5%).

Player on the Rise

Marc Rzepczynski doesn’t blow you away with his stuff but he has good command of his pitches (His control needs work, though) and induces an above-average number of ground-ball outs. Add in the fact that he throws left-handed with some deception, and you have a perfect breakout candidate.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Adam Lind: Elite
Aaron Hill: Average
Ricky Romero: Average
Scott Downs: Average
Travis Snider: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Brett Wallace, 1B/3B
2. Kyle Drabek, RHP
3. Zach Stewart, RHP
4. J.P. Arencibia, C
5. Chad Jenkins, RHP
6. Moises Sierra, OF
7. Brad Mills, LHP
8. Travis d’Arnaud, C
9. Jake Marisnick, OF
10. Henderson Alvarez, RHP

Overall Team Outlook: Based on some projections circling around the Internet, it could be a very bad year in Toronto, with three very strong clubs in the division (Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay). The club is in rebuilding mode, so fans will just have to enjoy watching some talented young players learn the ropes with an eye to 2011 and beyond. It should be particularly fun to watch some of the hitters, including Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Travis Snider.

The Starting Rotation: No matter how you slice it, the rotation took a huge hit with the loss of ace Roy Halladay and his 220+ innings of work. Sophomore Ricky Romero is suddenly the No. 1 guy and he’s struggled with his confidence in the past, so it remains to be seen how well he’ll respond to the added pressure. Shaun Marcum, returning from Tommy John surgery, is earmarked for the No. 2 role, although he’s more of a No. 3 or 4 starter. He’s expected to be at full strength for spring training, but expecting 200 innings from him is probably foolish.

Brandon Morrow was acquired from Seattle during the offseason and the club is hoping that the former No. 1 draft pick can finally establish himself as a MLB starter, but his control needs to improve quite a bit. Marc Rzepczynski zoomed through the minor league system in ’09 and made 11 starts in the Majors. His heater is average, at best, in terms of velocity but he induces a crazy number of ground-ball outs, which increases his value. The fifth spot in the rotation will be highly contested between the likes of Brett Cecil, Scott Richmond, David Purcey, and (if healthy) Dustin McGowan. Purcey may get the nod if he shows improvement in his command in the spring. He’ll turn 28 in April and the former first-round pick has yet to establish himself at the MLB level. He’s almost out of chances.

The Bullpen: The closer’s role was split between Scott Downs and Jason Frasor in ’09 and both players had their moments. Downs will likely receive first crack at the gig since he only lost the role due to an injured toe. Frasor will be waiting in the wings as the eighth-inning guy. The club lost reliever Brandon League in the Morrow trade, but the club still has immense depth with the likes of Shawn Camp, Jeremy Accardo, Dirk Hayhurst, Jesse Carlson, Brian Tallet, Zech Zinicola, Josh Roenicke, Merkin Valdez, and Casey Janssen. Tallet has an outside shot at the No. 5 starter’s role, while Roenicke has the best chance at being the future closer on the club.

The Starting Lineup: There is not a lot of turnover in the lineup from ’09, although one particular change is sure to have a major impact. The loss of on-base machine Marco Scutaro to the rival Red Sox will definitely hurt the team’s ability to score runs. New shortstop Gonzalez does a much worse job of getting on base (.279 vs .379 OBP). Edwin Encarnacion, a former teammate of Gonzalez’, will look to rebound from a season filled with injuries and inconsistencies. He has the potential to be a very good offensive player, but his defense tarnishes his overall value. Aaron Hill is looking to build off of a breakout offensive season, but the reality is that he’s not likely to repeat his 36-home-run outburst.

Adam Lind, on the other hand, has a good chance of duplicating his .305-35-114 season and could be the club’s long-term No. 3 hitter. With another year of experience under his belt, Travis Snider will hopefully make the necessary adjustments to grow as a hitter and reach his immense talent level (which rivals or exceeds Lind’s). The club will likely look to deal Lyle Overbay at the first chance, and he should be extra motivated as he’s a free agent at year’s end. Now healthy, it remains to be seen what the club can expect from Vernon Wells. A rebound season from him, though, could have a profound effect on the entire lineup.

The Bench: The club retained John McDonald in the offseason even though his much-lauded glove took a step back in ’09, according to UZR. Jose Bautista will provide pop (but a poor batting average) at a variety of outfield and infield positions. Raul Chavez is currently earmarked for the back-up catcher’s gig, although the club is still looking at other options and could make a trade in the spring. The final spot on the bench will likely go to one of two non-roster candidates: Joey Gathright or Jeremy Reed. Gathright is the better bet to help fantasy owners thanks to his speed.


2010 Washington Nationals Preview

Rotation
John Lannan, LHP
Jason Marquis, RHP
Scott Olsen, LHP
Ross Detwiler, LHP
Matt Chico, LHP

Closers and Setup
Matt Capps, RHP
Brian Bruney, RHP

Starting Lineup
Nyjer Morgan, CF
Adam Kennedy, 2B
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Adam Dunn, 1B
Josh Willingham, LF
Elijah Dukes, RF
Ivan Rodriguez, C
Ian Desmond, SS
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Adam Dunn has old people skills, and players with those skills decline faster than others. That said, he’s only 30 years old, and a player like Jason Marquis offers a more obvious probability of regression to a career mean. (He’s just not that good!)

Player on the Rise

Stephen Strasburg is the obvious mention, but he may not make it to the Majors in his first year in the pros. If he doesn’t, surely it will be middle infielder Ian Desmond breaking out or maybe outfielder Elijah Dukes will finally make good on all of his promise.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Ryan Zimmerman: Elite
Adam Dunn: Average
Nyjer Morgan: Average
Matt Capps: Average
Josh Willingham: Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP
2. Derek Norris, C
3. Ian Desmond, SS
4. Drew Storen, RHP
5. Danny Espinosa, SS
6. Chris Marrero, 1B
7. Michael Burgess, OF
8. Bradley Meyers, RHP
9. Aaron Thompson, LHP
10. Destin Hood, OF

Overall team outlook: Mantra: bad teams are where fantasy fortunes are made. There’s plenty of opportunity on this squad, with youngsters competing for three or four spots in the lineup and the Mother of All Pitching Prospects on the way. Watch the Nationals closely in 2010 because no one knows what will happen in the nation’s capital.

The Starting Rotation: You really have to be desperate to roster a Nationals’ starting pitcher in a standard mixed league next year. Even Jason Marquis was barely rosterable last year and, with his inevitable regression next year, it will get even uglier in Washington in 2010. Stephen Strasburg is only one man, and he’s not even guaranteed to show up in the capital in 2010. Instead, fantasy managers will have to sift through the wreckage that is ground-ball-inducer John Lannan, oft-injured Scott Olsen, the underwhelming-but-young Ross Detwiler, and TJ surgery survivor Matt Chico. It’s possible that someone surprises and steals a starting job from this mediocre group, because they certainly won’t have much competition – not one of the four pitchers even boasts an average strikeout rate. It’s just that, beyond Strasburg, there’s not really a prospect coming up the pipeline this year. In general, the Nats rotation is an “avoid.”

The Bullpen: After quite the makeover, the Nationals’ bully looks much improved. Gone is walk-the-lineup Mike MacDougal and in his place is the anti-MacDougal, Matt Capps. Capps might not have the velocity or the strikeout rate of an established closer, but he won’t walk an amazing six per nine either, making him a great late-round option at closer. He should be good for nice ratios and 30 saves given his BABIP and walk rate returning to normal. Brian Bruney is the gas-throwing wild man behind him, and while Sean Burnett may look like the better pitcher, some numbers just say he was luckier. Drew Storen, another ’09 first-round pick, is not far from making the Majors once he cleans up his control.

The Starting Lineup: This middling offense (ninth in the National League) boasts some underrated fantasy players. Nyjer Morgan won’t be as good as he was after the All-Star break last year, but he’s good for a decent batting average and a bunch of steals. Adam Dunn may do some damage to your batting average, but he’s almost a lock for 40 home runs and good RBI totals.

Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes are decent fliers in deeper leagues, particularly those leagues that use OBP instead of batting average. But the real gem in this lineup is third baseman super-stud Ryan Zimmerman, who finally put together all the parts of his game last year. Some may not believe that he’s as good as he was last year, but even with a few steps back in his game, he’s a top option at a tough position. His growth has seemed organic, for what it’s worth.

Rookie Ian Desmond is expected to push veteran Cristian Guzman from shortstop to second base. In a perfect world, Guzman would never have been signed to his current contract, but that’s the Nats for you. Desmond should provide replacement-level offense at worst, while displaying average to above-average defense.

The Bench: The signing of Ivan Rodriguez is unfortunate because it pushes a young Jose Flores to the bench, but perhaps his upside will persevere. He can’t get on base, but his power is interesting. Willie Harris should be eligible at multiple positions and offers some speed to deep league benches. Justin Maxwell used to be well thought of as a speed-and-defense outfielder, but he’s getting a little long in the tooth to be considered a prospect. Mike Morse looks like the infield backup and 1B Josh Whitesell has shown that he can get on base, but we’re still waiting on the rest of his game.


2010 St. Louis Cardinals Preview

Rotation
Chris Carpenter, RHP
Adam Wainwright, RHP
Brad Penny, RHP
Kyle Lohse, RHP
Rich Hill, LHP

Closers and Setup
Ryan Franklin, RHP
Jason Motte, RHP

Starting Lineup
Skip Schumaker, 2B
Brendan Ryan, SS
Albert Pujols, 1B
Matt Holliday, LF
Ryan Ludwick, RF
Yadier Molina, C
Colby Rasmus, CF
David Freese, 3B
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Even though he saved 38 games and posted an ERA of 1.92, Ryan Franklin was not that spectacular. His xFIP of 4.27 and BABIP of .269 indicate a turnaround is likely in 2010. He still may pick up saves, but the outstanding ERA will not return.

Player on the Rise

Colby Rasmus was a very effective base stealer in the minors, but swiped only three bags last season. His average, power numbers, and steals should all increase this year.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Albert Pujols – Elite
Matt Holliday – Elite
Adam Wainwright – Elite
Chris Carpenter – Elite
Ryan Ludwick – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Shelby Miller, RHP
2. Lance Lynn, RHP
3. Jaime Garcia, LHP
4. Daryl Jones, OF
5. Allen Craig, 3B
6. Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
7. Dan Descalso, IF
8. Adam Reifer, RHP
9. David Freese, 3B
10. Robert Stock, C

Overall Team Outlook: After being a trendy pick to win the National League crown, the Cardinals faltered early in the playoffs. However, 2009 was the first playoff trip since 2006, and with building blocks in place, the club will look to continue that streak.

The Starting Rotation: The Cardinals rotation features two Cy Young contenders on top of their rotation in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Wainwright sports an outstanding curveball and is working towards improving his sinking fastball. Carpenter has long been an ace-caliber pitcher, but has never stayed healthy long enough to be reliable. Newcomer Brad Penny will be the No. 3 starter this year. After being released by the Red Sox, Penny returned to the NL last year and showed that he can be a big-time pitcher. He throws a nice fastball and, if he can stay healthy, he should provide adequate output for the Cards. Kyle Lohse will help anchor the back of the rotation and is nothing to get excited about. Battling for the fifth spot will be reclamation project Rich Hill, along with Mitchell Boggs and a host of others. Hill is on a minor league deal, and should get the first shot if Dave Duncan can work his magic.

The Bullpen: As with any Tony LaRussa club, the Cardinals bullpen could be defined as a “mess.” Ryan Franklin was the closer last season and surprised everyone with a superb season. However, the advanced statistics show that he was extremely lucky, so projections for 2010 are way down. Other options for the Cards include flamethrower Jason Motte, who blew all of his 2009 save chances, and Kyle McClellan, who will need to lower his walk rate to stay successful.

The Starting Lineup: The Cardinals lineup is filled with absolute studs, as well as some question marks. Matt Holliday, Albert Pujols, and Ryan Ludwick are all big, right-handed bats that will occupy the middle of the order in St. Louis. Center fielder Colby Rasmus will have full control of his spot with the departure of Rick Ankiel. The left side of the infield is a big question mark, with rookie David Freese stepping in as the third baseman. Freese had some great seasons in the minors and playing in a good lineup will help him. Brendan Ryan, moustache and all, will be returning as the everyday shortstop, and should provide some nice cheap steals. Skip Schumaker will be back for his second full season at second base, but may have to split time with Julio Lugo. Lugo, acquired from the Red Sox late last year, played well for the Cardinals in his brief time with the team and could also fight Ryan for playing time at short. Behind the plate it is another year of “Name that Molina,” with Yadier Molina anchoring the defense. While he may not add anything special at the plate, the Cardinals rely on him to not hurt them on offense and to drive in runs whenever he can.

The Bench: The previously mentioned Lugo will be the first player off the bench for the Cards, but after that it remains a mystery. Veteran catcher Jason LaRue could see some playing time should Molina become run down or injured, but will not be a big part of the Cardinals’ plans. Infielder Tyler Greene will also be on the roster, but the back-up outfield spots are up for grabs.


2010 San Diego Padres Preview

Rotation
Chris Young, RHP
Jon Garland, RHP
Kevin Correia, RHP
Mat Latos, RHP
Clayton Richard, LHP

Closers and Setup
Heath Bell, RHP
Luke Gregerson, RHP

Starting Lineup
Everth Cabrera, SS
David Eckstein, 2B
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Chase Headley, 3B
Will Venable, RF
Scott Hairston, CF
Kyle Blanks, LF
Nick Hundley, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Chris Young has been helped out by luck in his career, as we can see by looking at his FIP rates. His control slipped in ‘09, along with his strikeout rate. His home ballpark certainly helps his fly-ball tendencies, but he’s a huge risk on the road.

Player on the Rise

Kyle Blanks has to potential to provide some massive power numbers for fantasy managers. Add in the fact that he could be eligible at two positions (first base and the outfield) and you have a promising, young fantasy prospect.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Adrian Gonzalez – Elite
Heath Bell – Elite
Chase Headley – Average
Chris Young – Average
Mat Latos – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Simon Castro, RHP
2. Logan Forsythe, 3B
3. James Darnell, 3B
4. Jaff Decker, OF
5. Donavan Tate, OF
6. Everett Williams, OF
7. Wynn Pelzer, RHP
8. Edinson Rincon, 3B
9. Cory Luebke, LHP
10. Aaron Poreda, LHP

Overall team outlook: The Padres played The Price is Right on the Titanic by throwing anything worth more than a few hundred thousand over the rails. New ownership and management are now in charge, and the club still figures to be relatively low in the payroll rankings, but the organization has some exciting young pieces through trades of Jake Peavy and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

The Starting Rotation: If nothing else, the Padres organization has a rotation that fits its park increasingly well. Chris Young is built like a pole who allows more than 50% fly balls and has issues preventing base stealers. Nevertheless, expect his ERA to improve on a 5.21 figure and consider him a contender to lead the Padres in victories. Correia is a guy who always had issues with the long ball while pitching with the Giants, which is a symptom for disaster. He had a nice run with the Padres last year, but expect his ERA to creep over 4.00.

The rest of the rotation will feature youngsters. Mat Latos looked impressive in his Major League debut and probably has the best stuff on staff, which means the potential for strikeouts, while Clayton Richard is a tallish ground-balling lefty. The fifth spot is going to be decided via a battle royal between a bunch of pitchers with marginal differences. Sean Gallagher, Wade LeBlanc, Aaron Poreda, and Cesar Carrillo figure to be the combatants. Poreda probably holds the highest value in most leagues.

The Bullpen: Heath Bell is surprisingly back, as the Padres chose against attempting to cash in his 42 saves. Most games held within Petco are going to be low-scoring in nature and prone to high-leverage appearances from Bell, which means the save opportunities will come regardless of the quality of team. Mike Adams and Luke Gregerson represent two pretty good set-up men who figure to get a few save opportunities as well.

The Starting Lineup: Everth Cabrera jumped straight from the low minors and displayed an affinity for getting on and then stealing bases. He figures to continue leading off, collecting steals, and touching home once Adrian Gonzalez delivers. It’s unlikely that Gonzalez will pound 40 homers again, as the lineup around him doesn’t provide much incentive to actually pitch to him, but then again, this lineup is an improvement over what the Pads ran out last year, and Gonzalez walked nearly 120 times (22 times intentionally) and still smoked 40 over the fence. Gonzalez is one of two legitimate long-ball and run-producing threats, alongside the unproven Kyle Blanks. Scott Hairston also has some power and absolutely demolishes left-handed pitching. David Eckstein doesn’t do much in the way of things that are valued in fantasy leagues, but Chase Headley could represent a decent choice, if only for his occasional power. Nick Hundley isn’t worth anyone’s time.

The Bench: Scott’s brother, Jerry, figures to be the Padres’ super-utility player, taking reps in the infield and spacious outfield alike; he’s a pinch-running threat as well. Tony Gwynn Jr. will be the back-up center fielder. Meanwhile, catcher Dusty Ryan holds next to no value, and Oscar Salazar likely won’t see enough playing time to be worth a look.


2010 Los Angeles Dodgers Preview

Rotation
Chad Billingsley, RHP
Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Hiroki Kuroda, LHP
Vicente Padilla, RHP
James McDonald, RHP

Closers and Setup
Jonathan Broxton, RHP
George Sherrill, LHP

Starting Lineup
Rafael Furcal, SS
Matt Kemp, CF
Andre Ethier, RF
Manny Ramirez, LF
James Loney, 1B
Casey Blake, 3B
Ronnie Belliard, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Rafael Furcal was a down-ballot MVP choice in 2006 when he had a 119 wRC+. But he’s had two years below 95 since then surrounding an injury-shortened 2008. Now 32, he may never sniff 15 homers or 37 steals again.

Player on the Rise

Clayton Kershaw broke out in every way except wins last year, as he posted an 8-8 mark. With better run support he could double his wins total this year.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Matt Kemp – Elite
Jonathan Broxton – Elite
Manny Ramirez – Elite
Andre Ethier – Average
Clayton Kershaw – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Devaris Gordon, SS
2. Ethan Martin, RHP
3. Andrew Lambo, OF
4. Josh Lindblom, RHP
5. Chris Withrow, RHP
6. Scott Elbert, LHP
7. Aaron Miller, LHP
8. John Ely, RHP
9. Trayvon Robinson, OF
10. Allen Webster, RHP

Overall team outlook: The Dodgers organization has made it to the NLCS in back-to-back years and features a team of exciting youngsters, bolstered by productive veterans. But there is a cloud over the team due to the bitter divorce of owner(s) Frank and Jamie McCourt, which leaves the immediate future of the club uncertain. The organization did not offer arbitration to any of its free agents and has not made any impact additions to the team in the offseason.

The Starting Rotation: Despite losing two pitchers to free agency, the Dodgers still have a nice rotation. Youngsters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw lead the staff. Billingsley won nine of his first 12 decisions before running into trouble with the gopher ball, as he allowed 14 homers in his final 103.2 innings. Kershaw had a 2.27 ERA in the second half of the season yet managed just one win after the All-Star break. It was a tough year for Hiroki Kuroda, who suffered from an oblique strain early in the year and then got hit in the head by a line drive in mid-August. But when he was able to pitch, batters still had trouble with his fastball-slider-splitter repertoire, which led to an excellent 32.8 O-Swing%. That would have been the best in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

One move the Dodgers did make this season was to re-sign late-season pick-up Vicente Padilla, who pitched very well for them until Game Five of the NLCS. In eight games during the regular season for Los Angeles, Padilla had a 3.17 K/BB ratio. The fifth starter’s job is up in the air. James McDonald flopped in his four starts last year but was very effective in the bullpen. The Dodgers like his arm, and he should get another chance to make it as a starter. If McDonald falters, Eric Stults could get some starts like he did last year, and the Dodgers have a trio of former high draft picks in the upper minors who could get a shot.

The Bullpen: After three years as one of the top set-up men in the game, Jonathan Broxton excelled in his first year as the full-time closer. He averaged 97.7 mph with his fastball and complemented that with a wicked slider, a combination which led to a 13.50 K/9 and 36 saves. The Dodgers added Orioles closer George Sherrill down the stretch last year, giving them a strong eighth-inning option. Sherrill was fantastic for the Dodgers, as he allowed just two earned runs in 27.2 innings.

The Starting Lineup: The Dodgers club will feature the same lineup it did during the playoffs last year. Rafael Furcal leads off and he is followed by slugging outfielders Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez. Kemp won both the Gold Glove award and the Silver Slugger last year and should challenge for a 30-30 year. Ethier set a career high with a .237 ISO last season. Ramirez had a tough year, with first the suspension and later a hand injury, but he still posted a 148 wRC+ to lead the team. James Loney has not developed the home-run power the club hoped for, but he has back-to-back 90-RBI seasons. Casey Blake had a .320/.442/.563 line against LHPs last year and is a consistent .275 hitter with 20-homer power.

Ronnie Belliard took over for Orlando Hudson at second base down the stretch and the Dodgers chose to bring him back instead of Hudson, who had just a .707 OPS in his final 114 games. Belliard hit for both average (.351) and power (.636 SLG) in his brief time with the Dodgers last year. Belliard has a weight clause in his contract where if he reports to spring training at more than 209 pounds, the club can release him. In that case, Blake DeWitt would become the starter. Russell Martin struggled at the plate last year and hopes to improve upon last season’s .285 BABIP and 5.4 HR/FB rate.

The Bench: The Dodgers brought in Jamey Carroll to complement DeWitt for infield depth, although DeWitt may start the year in the minors if he does not grab a starting job. Doug Mientkiewicz signed a minor league deal and will likely be the back-up first baseman. Brad Ausmus returns as the second catcher. With the trade of Juan Pierre, Jason Repko becomes the primary outfield reserve. The bench is not a strong point of the club.


2010 New York Mets Preview

Rotation
Johan Santana, LHP
John Maine, RHP
Oliver Perez, LHP
Mike Pelfrey, RPH
Jon Niese, LHP

Closers and Setup
Francisco Rodriguez, RHP
Pedro Feliciano, LHP

Starting Lineup
Jose Reyes, SS
Luis Castillo, 2B
David Wright, 3B
Jason Bay, LF
Jeff Francoeur, RF
Beltran/Matthews, CF
Daniel Murphy, 1B
Omir Santos, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

People have been talking about the declining peripherals of Francisco Rodriguez for several years and it all came home to roost last season. His 1.92 K/BB was the lowest of his career.

Player on the Rise

In his final 266 plate appearances on the year, Daniel Murphy had a .294/.321/.504 line. In the final month of the season, he had a .580 slugging percentage.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
David Wright: Elite
Jose Reyes: Elite
Jason Bay: Elite
Johan Santana: Elite
Francisco Rodriguez: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Fernando Martinez, OF
2. Ike Davis, 1B
3. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
4. Wilmer Flores, SS
5. Jon Niese, LHP
6. Brad Holt, RHP
7. Ruben Tejada, SS
8. Josh Thole, C
9. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
10. Jeurys Familia, RHP

Overall team outlook: A staggering number of injuries transformed the Mets from a playoff contender to an also-ran last year. The uncertainty surrounding nearly every key player in 2009, whether due to injury or ineffectiveness, makes the Mets the hardest team to predict in all of baseball. The organization has the talent to win 90 games yet enough question marks to make another 70-win season a potential outcome.

The Starting Rotation: For the Mets to have any chance at all, Johan Santana has to return from elbow surgery to be the elite pitcher he was for them at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In a 27-game stretch over the two years, Santana was 16-2 with a 1.98 ERA. They need a dominant Santana because there is so much uncertainty with the rest of the staff. There is no clear-cut order among John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, and Oliver Perez. Maine and Perez each have 15-win seasons under their belt, but both are coming off injury-plagued seasons.

Maine has thrown just 221.1 innings the past two seasons combined and needs to be healthy enough to throw his slider on a consistent basis to be an effective pitcher. Perez has outstanding stuff but is plagued by wildness. The two seasons when his BB/9 was beneath 4.50, Perez combined for a 3.26 ERA. Overall he has a 4.54 career ERA. He is also coming off knee surgery. Pelfrey was the lone starter to remain healthy in 2009, but he posted a 5.03 ERA. Barring a last-minute trade, the Mets will have Fernando Nieve and Jon Niese battle for the fifth starter’s job. Both players had their seasons end with injuries last year. Nieve had an impressive 2.95 ERA last year but that came with a 5.41 xFIP.

The Bullpen: After bullpen meltdowns cost the Mets a playoff berth in 2008, they imported Francisco Rodriguez last season. He had a fine first half but suffered a post All-Star break meltdown. Rodriguez had a 5.52 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in the second half last year. With his high walk rate, Rodriguez has little room for error and last year everything came crashing down. Rodriguez has made a career out of stranding base runners, with a lifetime 80.4% strand rate. His LOB% was 69.8% last year. Only a .270 BABIP kept things from being even worse. The Mets club needs the first half Rodriguez if it plans to contend in 2010.

The Starting Lineup: The Mets organization hopes the return of Jose Reyes will reinvigorate the lineup. After suffering through various leg injuries last year, Reyes had surgery on a torn right hamstring tendon in October. It remains to be seen if Reyes can once again be the player that averaged 64.5 steals from 2005 to 2008. Luis Castillo had a bounceback season in 2009. His 107 wRC+ was his highest since 2005. David Wright is working with hitting coach Howard Johnson to rediscover his home-run swing. Wright hit just 10 home runs last year after averaging nearly 29 homers the previous four years.

Jason Bay was targeted as a free agent because the Mets thought his pull tendencies would allow him to hit homers in Citi Field. Bay has hit more than 30 homers in four of the past five seasons. A .343 BABIP helped Jeff Francoeur to a .350 wOBA last year with the Mets, and the club hopes that is the real Francoeur, instead of the one that had a .286 wOBA in 2008 and a .278 in 2009 with Atlanta. Carlos Beltran will miss at least the first month of the season after undergoing knee surgery in mid-January. Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. will fill in during his absence. Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis will form a platoon at first base. Murphy led the team with 12 homers last year while Tatis had an .822 OPS versus LHPs. After spending most of the season in a pointless chase for free agent Bengie Molina, the Mets have an unsettled catching situation. Josh Thole is likely to start in the minors to work on his defense while Omir Santos and Henry Blanco battle to see if either can post a .700 OPS.

The Bench: Matthews replaces Jeremy Reed as a reserve outfielder, and brings a 92-point increase in OPS. Alex Cora returns as the primary middle infield back-up. Blanco was brought in mainly for his defense. Pagan was a pleasant surprise last year in his most extended playing time in the Majors. He opens the year in center for Beltran and may see time in right if Francoeur struggles. Tatis is a solid backup at the corner infield and outfield positions and can even play second base in an emergency.


A Brief History of FanGraphs

When I started FanGraphs, I had no idea what I was getting myself into. I was a fantasy baseball nut whose full time day job was creating reports and graphs in AOL’s operations department. In 2005 I decided to put those skills to use at something I really enjoyed.

Initially, FanGraphs had a few select stats and ten graphs for batters and pitchers that I thought painted a useful picture for fantasy baseball analysis. Since then, the site has taken a turn towards professional baseball analysis, and a lot of the work we do focuses on evaluating real-life transactions.

Fortunately, much of this type of statistical analysis can be applied to fantasy baseball, and in late 2008, we decided to get back to our fantasy roots by launching RotoGraphs, the fantasy baseball blog on FanGraphs.

This past summer, Marc Hulet, editor of RotoGraphs, asked me if I’d be willing to publish a fantasy baseball magazine written by our current stable of writers. And now, seven months and sleepless nights later, we’re very pleased to present you with the 2010 FanGraphs Second Opinion: Fantasy Baseball Companion.

Why the Second Opinion? We know that FanGraphs is probably not your very first source for fantasy analysis, but we think that what we say about a particular player will be valuable in your fantasy league. And we suspect that what we say may not exactly match up with what other publications are saying because of our particular style of analysis, hence the term: second opinion.

As you read through the articles, player profiles, and team previews, you should keep in mind that predicting the future is not an exact science, and hindsight vision is always 20/20. If you disagree with what one of our analysts has written, that’s certainly okay by us, and hopefully we’ve at the very least clearly laid out another side of the argument for you to consider.

With that said, we hope you enjoy the book. We are lucky to have so many open-minded, bright and encouraging readers, and FanGraphs would not be where it was today without your visits, comments and shared enthusiasm for the game.

So thank you for being a great reader, and thank you for purchasing the book and helping support FanGraphs as we continue to strive to supply timely, thought-provoking baseball analysis. If you have any questions or comments about the 2010 Second Opinion do not hesitate to contact me personally.

Best of luck in your 2010 fantasy baseball leagues!

FanGraphs Founder
-David Appelman