A Blueprint For The Giants

Although the National League West might not be the home of offensive behemoths, at least one of the run-starved trio of the San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies will reach the playoffs. It might be tempting to write all those teams off because of their lack of punch, but history shows that you don’t have to be an offensive machine to have a parade in November.

As you can see in the graphic below, five of the 19 teams that have won the World Series in the past 20 years — there was no postseason in 1994 thanks to the strike — had offenses that were below the league average in that given year. The 1995 Atlanta Braves were a whopping 45 runs below average yet won it all thanks to some guys named Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz on the mound.

This is good news for the Giants especially; they’ve posted the worst offensive numbers of any contending club this season. (See the second chart, below this paragraph.) Their problems at the plate have kept them looking up at the Padres for most of the season and have inspired general manager Brian Sabean to make several moves to bolster the offense, including acquisitions of outfielders Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen and Cody Ross.

The Giants don’t have the Hall of Fame pitching trio that the Braves had, but their pitching has been strong enough to keep them in the race. Their team strikeout rate of 8.11 K/9 is second-best in baseball. Although they don’t have a balanced team, they may be able to make it work in October. To get there, however, they’ll have to jump over a team with a similar pedigree.

The Padres have scored just 589 runs — only three more than the Washington Nationals — and are certainly not an offensive juggernaut. They, too, have been carried by their pitching staff; they are the only team that has a higher strikeout rate than the Giants. However, their home park plays a large role in driving runs down, and given the environment in which they play half their games, their overall offensive performance is not so bad. They are comparable to the Florida Marlins of 1997 and 2003 as well as the 2005 Chicago White Sox and 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, each of which ended up winning it all.

There are enough examples of mediocre offenses being carried to world championships by their teammates to know that each of the eight teams that make it to October has a legitimate chance. However, being able to score runs in bunches certainly helps.

The New York Yankees have won five championships since 1996 on the backs of some big hitters. Last year’s New York offense wasn’t just the best in baseball — it was one of the best in baseball history, putting up a whopping plus-198 weighted runs above average that is easily the best of the championship clubs from the past 20 years. Both times that the Boston Red Sox won it all, they did so with strong offensive clubs, and the Toronto Blue Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993 with a lineup full of good hitters.

The ability to score runs is why the Yankees are again looked at as one of the favorites, as they have the best offense in baseball yet again.

However, don’t overlook the Minnesota Twins, who have hit better than any team other than the Yankees and have done so without Justin Morneau in the second half of the season. Jim Thome has filled the gap better than anyone could have anticipated, and his .278/.407/.635 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) mark is nearly the equal of Morneau’s numbers before he landed on the disabled list. With Thome and Mauer in the middle of the lineup and a deep lineup that doesn’t have any holes, the Twins can hit with the big boys and shouldn’t be underestimated come playoff time.

Over in the National League, the upstart Cincinnati Reds have mashed their way to the NL Central lead. MVP candidate Joey Votto gets most of the credit, but underrated performances from guys at key positions, such as Ryan Hanigan and Paul Janish, make the Reds a hard team to pitch around. The Reds are the team to back in the Senior Circuit if you want a club that can put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

The lesson from recent history, however, is that big-time scoring isn’t the only way to the promised land. It helps, certainly, but all these teams can point to at least one World Series champion with a similar offense and attempt to follow in its footsteps.