ALDS Reset

Both American League Division Series stand at 1-1, and that provides us with at least two key considerations. First, both series are now, for all intents and purposes, best-of-three series; and second, the lower-seeded team in each series now enjoys home-field advantage. Given these facts, is it time to recalibrate our expectations as far as the Detroit Tigers-New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays-Texas Rangers series are concerned? The short answer: yes.

Here’s how the pitching matchups for rest of the Tigers-Yankees series will look:

Game 3 — CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander
(at Detroit)
Game 4 — A.J. Burnett vs. Rick Porcello
(at Detroit)
Game 5 (if necessary) — TBD vs. Doug Fister (at New York)

That suspension of Game 1 on Friday night pushed each team’s ace back to Game 3 and switched the venue. The latter consequence won’t mean much to Verlander, who hasn’t shown any home-road tendencies of note this season. The same goes for Sabathia.

Comerica Park, however, may present some challenges to the Yankees’ offense. They’ll be facing a pair of right-handers in Detroit, and that means Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher will be batting from the left side. While both players hit for more power as left-handed batters, Comerica greatly suppresses the power numbers of left-handed batters. For park factors, a score of 100 is average. And as you can see in the link, Comerica has a home run park factor of 88 for left-handed hitters, which is well below average (lower numbers favor pitchers). In fact, only one AL park — Kauffman Stadium — has cut down on lefty home runs to a greater extent. In contrast, Yankee Stadium is, by a rather absurd margin, the most accommodating environment in all of baseball for left-handed power hitters with a left-handed home run factor of 143. Some Yankees hitters — Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano, in addition to Teixeira and Swisher — will suffer as a result. For an offense that depends heavily on lefty power, this is not good news.

While the sample size is quite small, it’s also worth noting that the Yankees went 1-3 in Comerica Park during the season and scored just 10 total runs in those four games. Quite possibly, that’s because Comerica’s peculiarities dovetail with those of the 2011 Yankees.

The other, perhaps larger consequence of the Game 1 rainout is that Burnett (5.20 ERA over the last two years) will be given a start. Ideally for their purposes, the Yankees would have been able to give a pair of starts to Sabathia and thus avoid inflicting Burnett upon themselves and the world at large. Instead, Burnett will pitch Game 4 in Detroit, which will be one team’s chance to close it out. Burnett, of course, has induced more hand-wrings in 2011 than any pitcher not named John Lackey.

Indeed, Burnett has struggled mightily away from home, and he’s struggled more mightily still against right-handed batters (and this has generally been the case throughout his career). Righties had an .831 OPS against him this year, while lefties have a .777 mark. Those trends will work against him in Game 4. The Tigers, if manager Jim Leyland chooses to do so, can lard the lineup with right-handed hitters such as Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, Magglio Ordonez, Austin Jackson and Delmon Young. If the Tigers want to get crazy, they might even have switch-hitter Victor Martinez bat from the right side against Burnett. Martinez has a line of .368 AVG /.478 OBP/.579 SLG against righties as a right-handed hitter in his career (in just 23 plate appearances). Presumably, that’s mostly come against knuckleballers, but Burnett’s splits are such that it’s worth discussing.

Based on the fact that the Yankees’ primary offensive strength is neutralized by Comerica Park, and the fact that they will be forced to use Burnett, the Tigers are legitimate favorites to win each of the next two games.

Rays-Rangers

Game 3 — Colby Lewis vs. David Price (at Tampa Bay)
Game 4 — Matt Harrison vs. Jeremy Hellickson (at Tampa Bay)
Game 5 (if necessary) — James Shields vs. C.J. Wilson (at Texas)

Lewis, a right-hander, likes to pitch on the road (3.43 ERA on the road this year, 5.54 at home), and he likes to face same-side hitters (.616 OPS against). On the flip side, Price could struggle against the righty-heavy Texas lineup: In his career, righties have homered once every 37 plate appearances against Price, while lefties have gone yard once every 63 PAs. So while Price is a better pitcher overall, the location of the game and the makeup of the Rangers’ lineup make this pitching matchup a lot more even than it appears at first glance.

With that said, the Rays will have an edge in Game 4. Hellickson gets to pitch Game 4 at home, where his numbers are uniformly better this season, and, as mentioned, the Rangers’ lineup is almost exclusively right-handed, which will benefit him.

And that brings us to Game 5. Rookie sensation Matt Moore utterly tamed the Rangers in Game 1, but Rays manager Joe Maddon is still saying that Shields will be his Game 5 starter if he needs one. It’s hard to properly analyze this game without knowing the starting pitcher, and Moore is proving to be this October’s big X factor.

We know the Rangers will start Wilson, one of this season’s most effective pitchers. However, despite his recent credentials, Wilson was abused in Game 1 opposite Moore, so the usual narrative of “playoff veteran versus untested rookie” yielded unanticipated results. And Wilson, in the regular season and his lone 2011 postseason start, has, by his own standards, struggled at home (3.69 ERA at home, 2.31 away).

In the end, this remains the most difficult series to predict. If pressed, bet on Texas’ superior offense, underrated back-end relief corps and solid rotation to carry the day, but Moore could change everything.