Atlanta Braves Remain NL East Faves

At the end of April, the situation for the Atlanta Braves looked bleak. After defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on April 20, the Braves were tied atop the NL East, but they promptly lost nine games in a row to fall five back in a division occupied by the two-time defending NL champs.

By the end of May, though, the Braves came back to lead the division, and they still do. They have a roughly 88 percent chance of making the playoffs. Even if the Phillies overtake them, they would lead the wild-card race, and at this point, with injured third baseman Chipper Jones out for the season, they’d take a bid any way they can get it.

The Braves’ remaining schedule certainly helps their outlook. Only 12 of their remaining 44 games are against teams with a .500-or-better record; six of those come against the Phillies, including the final series of the season. The St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies are their only other opponents with winning records; the rest of their schedule includes nine each against the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals and six against the New York Mets.

Since July 31, the Braves have been without Martin Prado, their breakout star; he ranks fifth among MLB second basemen in wOBA. The Braves have gone 9-6 in his absence, but four of those losses have been by one run, and Prado could have made a difference. He could be back soon, which will help the Braves cover for the loss of Jones. Although Jones was having a poor season by his standards, he still has the fourth-highest wOBA among Braves regulars. They will have to rely more on Omar Infante, who, All-Star or not, likely won’t sustain his current .344 wOBA when pressed into regular action.

Beyond injures, the Braves have plenty of offensive voids. In May and June it looked as though they had won their gamble on Troy Glaus, as he was back to producing at elite levels. But since then, his numbers have fallen hard (a .260 wOBA in July and just .306 so far in August). The outfield has had plenty of issues, too. Nate McLouth is currently in the minors trying to figure things out, leaving Melky Cabrera, who has a .310 wOBA, and Rick Ankiel, who has a .242 wOBA since being traded July 31 and a .309 wOBA this season. Even Jason Heyward has had his low points, including a .278 wOBA in August.

Although the pitching staff has stayed mostly healthy, the Braves lost a piece of their rotation when Kris Medlen left during the fifth inning of his Aug. 4 start with an elbow injury. He will undergo Tommy John surgery. The Braves will use Mike Minor, the team’s No. 4 preseason prospect, and Kenshin Kawakami could return to the majors if Minor doesn’t adjust well to big league life. Thankfully for the Braves, their top four starters are good enough to carry the team.

With the Phillies surging of late (and with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard about to come off the disabled list), the Braves’ outlook is a bit dim. Still, that shouldn’t discourage them very much. They have thrived on their pitching all season, and that unit remains largely intact.

The Braves have offensive options, too. They could look to the trade market for a first baseman; Lyle Overbay is one name that stands out. His season stats don’t look pretty, but he has been hitting better lately (.280 batting average/.363 on-base percentage/.517 slugging percentage since July 4). Or they could turn to Freddie Freeman, their No. 2 preseason prospect, who is hitting .311/.371/.516 in Triple-A at age 20. If the Braves wanted to make a serious gambit, they could put in a claim on Manny Ramirez once the Dodgers place him on waivers. That could give their offense a little extra punch.

Despite the injuries and offensive black holes, the Braves not only are in this thing but even have to be considered the favorites in the NL East because of their 2½-game lead. Even if they can’t hold off Philly, the wild card is still very much in play. If a roster move that can help the team presents itself, the front office should jump on it. The Braves aren’t locks to make the postseason, especially with a few Phillies returning from injuries, but it’s tough to write off a team that has been in first place for almost three months.





Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.

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