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Huff and Tejada Holding Back Giants

Given enough high-quality bats, even a playoff-bound team can absorb below-average production at a few positions. Yet the San Francisco Giants faced, and continue to face, a more perilous situation: They’re not only getting below-average production from Aubrey Huff and Miguel Tejada.

The lineup wasn’t particularly strong to start, and with the loss of Buster Posey for the season, it’s that much weaker. While their pitching has kept them atop the NL West to this point, the voids on offense, which now include catcher in addition to first base and shortstop, could catch up with them.

Between Huff and Tejada, Tejada presents the bigger problem. His current production, a .231 wOBA, ranks third to last among all qualified MLB hitters, and last in the National League. On defense he’s been just as bad, especially at shortstop, where he already sports a minus-3.2 UZR, which puts him on pace for minus-19.6 runs in 150 games. That is, his defense alone, if he continued playing shortstop full-time, could cost his team nearly two full wins by itself. He has played a bit better at third base, but with the injured Pablo Sandoval due to return, Tejada won’t earn much time there. Added up, his woes amount to minus-0.8 WAR, which ranks fourth worst in baseball.

While Huff has hit a considerable deal better than Tejada, he has produced a less valuable season overall. His minus-1.0 WAR ranks second worst in baseball, though it comes more heavily from the defensive side. The good news is that much of that negative value comes from his time in the outfield earlier in the season. The bad news is that his minus-8.3 UZR in the outfield is a remarkably poor mark, and a signal that moving him out there in favor of rookie first baseman Brandon Belt, when he returns from injury, is not a productive option. At first base he has actually been fine, per UZR, but his offense has dragged down his value. His .290 wOBA ranks fifth worst among his peers at first base.

Normally we might expect improvement from both Huff and Tejada, given that they’ve produced quality numbers in the past. But both face circumstances that temper those expectations. Tejada is currently 37 years old and has experienced declining production in recent years. He produced a quality season in 2009, a contract year, but other than that he has produced a wOBA of .313 or below in the past four seasons, with the previous low point coming in 2010. Huff is a bit younger at 34, but he has a history of poor seasons mixed among his good ones. Last year he exceeded expectations with a .388 wOBA, but the Giants were only able to sign him cheaply because he produced a .297 wOBA in 2009. He has a number of other seasons in which he produced below-average numbers for a first baseman, so there is precedent for this kind of season.

It does seem odd that a first-place team has remained there despite these two offensive black holes. The Giants do have the pitching to carry them most of the way, but they’re going to need offensive production at some point this year. Unfortunately for them, there is not a long list of playoff teams that have dealt with two players quite as bad as Tejada and Huff. The closest might be the 2006 Athletics, with Dan Johnson (.308 wOBA) at first base and Bobby Crosby (.286 wOBA) at shortstop. Similarly, the 2005 Padres had Phil Nevin (.293 wOBA) at first base and Sean Burroughs (.280 wOBA) at third. Last year the AL champion Texas Rangers had Elvis Andrus (.298 wOBA) at shortstop and a collection of first basemen that produced a .299 wOBA. But while it has been done before, there is something that stands out about those teams.

The 2005 Padres, 2006 Athletics and 2010 Rangers all made changes eventually. While the Rangers stuck with Andrus at short, they moved Mitch Moreland to first base, where they finally got some semblance of production. The 2005 Padres replaced Burroughs with Joe Randa, who produced a .300 wOBA for them, and Nevin with a combination of Mark Sweeney, Xavier Nady and Robert Fick. They didn’t produce league-average numbers at first base, but they produced far better than Nevin. The 2006 Athletics eventually moved Marco Scutaro into the shortstop spot, and his .307 wOBA dwarfed Crosby’s. They also moved Nick Swisher to first base, where his .368 wOBA helped tremendously.

The Giants, too, figure to make changes. But unlike the Padres, Athletics and Rangers, they have contractual obligations standing in the way. They invested $6.5 million in Tejada this past winter, so to release him now would be to realize considerable negative value. Converting WAR to dollars, he would cost the Giants a net $10.1 million, the $6.5 million for the contract plus $3.6 million in negative value.

They also re-signed Huff this past offseason, to a two-year, $22 million contract. That makes his release less likely, but the Giants could still make a change. They have demonstrated a willingness to do so in the past, pulling Barry Zito from the rotation and benching Aaron Rowand; both of them had more money remaining on their contracts than Huff. The Giants also have the benefit of an in-house replacement in Brandon Belt, once he returns from injury.

With a pitching staff that ranks among the league’s best, the Giants can deal with an average offense. Unfortunately, the presence of both Huff and Tejada drags down their run scoring, and without Posey it could get to dangerous levels. Few teams have made it very far with two similarly unproductive players, but there is still time for change. The Giants have a few options in replacing Huff and Tejada, thus restoring some order on offense. It won’t be easy, considering the investments they made. But at some point they have to consider the players sunk costs and make moves with a focus on repeating as NL West champs.


Rays Win Game 3 Despite Setbacks

The final score might not reflect it, but the Rays’ Game 3 win didn’t come easily. In four of the first five innings the Rays put six runners on base, but could not bring around any of them to score. Then, once they did start showing life in the later innings, they had to overcome a baserunning mistake and then an extra-wide strike zone before they could mount their comebacks. Twice in this game the Rays came from behind to force a Game 4.

John Jaso’s go-ahead RBI single might have rated the most significant play of the game, but the most important series of events came in the sixth. While the Rays had those six baserunners in the first five innings, they failed to get a hit after a man reached. In the sixth they got off to a good start with an Evan Longoria walk. Matt Joyce hit a soft grounder and avoided getting doubled up, but he still created an out with a runner on base.

Dan Johnson, the second lefty to face relief pitcher Derek Holland, took the first five pitches of his at-bat and worked the count full. Holland went with a fastball away on the sixth pitch, but Johnson reached out and pulled it into right field. The situation for the Rays appeared favorable. They had runners on first and second with one out, which would have given them a win expectancy of 40.1 percent, an increase of 5.9 percent on the play. But the play wasn’t over yet.

Joyce overran second and lost his balance trying to return. Nelson Cruz alertly fired back in, and Ian Kinsler applied the tag in time. That caused the Rays’ win expectancy to tumble all the way to 29.4 percent. The loss in win expectancy from having runners at first and second with one out to a runner on first with two outs is 10.5 percent. That was the single costliest WPA swing of the game, and it nearly cost the Rays another opportunity. Thankfully for them, Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton came through.

Pena had a poor year by his standards, but he was particularly poor against lefties. He struck out in 38.5 percent of his at-bats and hit for far less power than he did against righties. Again, the lefty Holland didn’t have to worry much. Holland delivered four straight pitches well out of the zone, which gave the Rays another chance with a runner in scoring position. Upton took advantage, lining an inside fastball down the left-field line for a double that tied the game. The walk and the double were worth plus-20.7 percent win probability added.

The Rays then threatened to take the lead in the seventh inning. Ben Zobrist hit a one-out double, raising the Rays’ chances of winning by 7.2 percent. The win probability stat is context-neutral, meaning it doesn’t take into consideration the hitters coming to bat. It might have been worth a bit more if it knew that Carl Crawford and Longoria each had a shot to bring home the go-ahead run. Unfortunately, a poor strike zone doomed Crawford. He fouled off the first pitch, but then saw two fastballs that appeared to be way outside. But the home plate ump called both a strike, costing the Rays 6.1 percent in win probability added.

A half inning later, Kinsler gave the Rangers the lead, but the Rays fought back with their big eighth inning. Unlike their previous scoring situations, this one went relatively smoothly. The Rays had to overcome some adversity — some of their own doing, some out of their control — to get there, but they forced a Game 4 on Sunday.


Atlanta Braves Remain NL East Faves

At the end of April, the situation for the Atlanta Braves looked bleak. After defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on April 20, the Braves were tied atop the NL East, but they promptly lost nine games in a row to fall five back in a division occupied by the two-time defending NL champs.

By the end of May, though, the Braves came back to lead the division, and they still do. They have a roughly 88 percent chance of making the playoffs. Even if the Phillies overtake them, they would lead the wild-card race, and at this point, with injured third baseman Chipper Jones out for the season, they’d take a bid any way they can get it.

The Braves’ remaining schedule certainly helps their outlook. Only 12 of their remaining 44 games are against teams with a .500-or-better record; six of those come against the Phillies, including the final series of the season. The St. Louis Cardinals and Colorado Rockies are their only other opponents with winning records; the rest of their schedule includes nine each against the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals and six against the New York Mets.

Since July 31, the Braves have been without Martin Prado, their breakout star; he ranks fifth among MLB second basemen in wOBA. The Braves have gone 9-6 in his absence, but four of those losses have been by one run, and Prado could have made a difference. He could be back soon, which will help the Braves cover for the loss of Jones. Although Jones was having a poor season by his standards, he still has the fourth-highest wOBA among Braves regulars. They will have to rely more on Omar Infante, who, All-Star or not, likely won’t sustain his current .344 wOBA when pressed into regular action.

Beyond injures, the Braves have plenty of offensive voids. In May and June it looked as though they had won their gamble on Troy Glaus, as he was back to producing at elite levels. But since then, his numbers have fallen hard (a .260 wOBA in July and just .306 so far in August). The outfield has had plenty of issues, too. Nate McLouth is currently in the minors trying to figure things out, leaving Melky Cabrera, who has a .310 wOBA, and Rick Ankiel, who has a .242 wOBA since being traded July 31 and a .309 wOBA this season. Even Jason Heyward has had his low points, including a .278 wOBA in August.

Although the pitching staff has stayed mostly healthy, the Braves lost a piece of their rotation when Kris Medlen left during the fifth inning of his Aug. 4 start with an elbow injury. He will undergo Tommy John surgery. The Braves will use Mike Minor, the team’s No. 4 preseason prospect, and Kenshin Kawakami could return to the majors if Minor doesn’t adjust well to big league life. Thankfully for the Braves, their top four starters are good enough to carry the team.

With the Phillies surging of late (and with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard about to come off the disabled list), the Braves’ outlook is a bit dim. Still, that shouldn’t discourage them very much. They have thrived on their pitching all season, and that unit remains largely intact.

The Braves have offensive options, too. They could look to the trade market for a first baseman; Lyle Overbay is one name that stands out. His season stats don’t look pretty, but he has been hitting better lately (.280 batting average/.363 on-base percentage/.517 slugging percentage since July 4). Or they could turn to Freddie Freeman, their No. 2 preseason prospect, who is hitting .311/.371/.516 in Triple-A at age 20. If the Braves wanted to make a serious gambit, they could put in a claim on Manny Ramirez once the Dodgers place him on waivers. That could give their offense a little extra punch.

Despite the injuries and offensive black holes, the Braves not only are in this thing but even have to be considered the favorites in the NL East because of their 2½-game lead. Even if they can’t hold off Philly, the wild card is still very much in play. If a roster move that can help the team presents itself, the front office should jump on it. The Braves aren’t locks to make the postseason, especially with a few Phillies returning from injuries, but it’s tough to write off a team that has been in first place for almost three months.


Breaking Down the July Deals

The 2010 MLB trade deadline has been one of the more interesting ones in recent memory. Teams engaged in a flurry of activity, making deals major and minor. Money changed hands in a number of deals, with the sellers helping pay the salaries of veterans under long-term contracts. It also seemed like every serious contender added a piece or two to help make their late-season runs. Here are some of the more significant deals that happened in July.

Rangers acquire Cliff Lee and Cristian Guzman

The Rangers made the biggest splash of the season a few weeks ago when they acquired Cliff Lee from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Justin Smoak. While that does open up a hole at first base that Chris Davis, their Opening Day first baseman, must fill, it also helps bolster the rotation, placing it among the strongest units in the American League. The move has all but guaranteed their place atop the AL West.

The Lee move also not only helps them upgrade their rotation, but it provides insurance in case a few other pitchers don’t work out. C.J. Wilson has had an excellent year in the rotation but hasn’t pitched this many innings since 2003. If he fades down the stretch, the Rangers can still lean on Lee. Same with Tommy Hunter, who has been pitching better than his peripherals would indicate (3.31 ERA, 4.77 FIP). If anything happens to them, Lee still gives the Rangers a good chance.

Phillies acquire Roy Oswalt

Two preseason contenders, the Phillies and the Red Sox, have sustained injuries to key players this year. The difference between the two is that the Phillies are still very much in the hunt. They solidified their position by trading for Oswalt just before the deadline, leaving them with perhaps the best top three starting pitchers in the National League. Oswalt, along with Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, will help keep opponents off the board. The only thing missing now is the offense.

What makes this deal even more important for the Phillies is what it means when they get back some of those injured players. If rookie Domonic Brown can hit well and stick they’ll have a superb outfield upon Shane Victorino’s return. Then, later in August they’ll bolster their infield corps by replacing the light-hitting Wilson Valdez with Chase Utley. With an offense at full strength and a greatly improved pitching staff the Phillies might not only make a run at the NL wild card. They should challenge the Braves for the East.

Angels acquire Dan Haren

A week before the trade deadline it looked like the Diamondbacks were going to trade Dan Haren to the Yankees for a package centered on Joba Chamberlain. Instead they surprised everyone a few days later by trading him to the Angels for Joe Saunders and prospects. The Angels got an instant upgrade in the rotation not only in 2010, but also for the next two years that Haren is under contract.

The problem, as stated above, is that the Rangers have jumped out to a big lead in the West. With the Yankees and the Rays both having more than 60 wins by the deadline, the AL wild card looks unattainable at this point, too. The Angels had an outside chance of fighting their way back into it, but that all but evaporated when they learned that Joel Pineiro will miss significant time with an oblique injury. They couldn’t know that at the time, so the deal is still a win — but more so because of what it means for the 2011 Angels.

Yankees acquire Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood

The Yankees benefit from their financial might, but that didn’t appear to come into play. Both Berkman and Wood have a significant amount of money left on their deals for this year, but the Astros and Indians sent the majority of that to the Yankees. The Yankees picked up all three for two prospects not in their top 10, two players to be named later and minimal salary relief.

In Berkman the Yankees get a designated hitter to replace the injured Nick Johnson. His season numbers don’t look very Berkman-like, but that could be the lingering effects of the knee surgery he had this spring. Berkman is now four months removed from the procedure, and his OPS has increased in each month since his return.

While Kearns and Wood are smaller deals, both serve their purposes. Kearns gives the Yankees a fourth outfielder who can play the field and provide some value at the plate. Wood is a pure gamble. He just came off the disabled list and has a storied injury history, but if he can remain healthy and pitch out of the bullpen like he did in 2008 the Yankees will be a very happy team in October.

Dodgers acquire Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot and Octavio Dotel

At the start of the day on July 31 the Dodgers sat in third place, seven games back in the NL West and 4½ games back in the wild-card standings. They faced an uphill climb for the season’s final two months, but made their lives a bit better by adding a starting pitcher, a second baseman and a late-innings reliever. All three could help them back into the wild-card race.

Lilly has been unspectacular this season, but a move to Dodger Stadium could give him a boost. His biggest problem has been his home run rate, which is always an issue for fly ball pitchers. If his new park helps tone that down he’ll be a bit better the rest of the way. With Theriot it appears the Dodgers are betting on a recovery, since he has a lower weighted on-base average (wOBA) than the man the Dodgers traded for him, Blake DeWitt. Dotel gives Joe Torre one more option when choosing a setup man for Jonathan Broxton.

Still, considering the Phillies’ moves it looks like an even tougher battle for the Dodgers, even with these acquisitions.

Cardinals acquire Jake Westbrook

The Cardinals had two needs heading into the deadline: a bat and a starting pitcher. They filled the latter by trading for Jake Westbrook. After missing all of 2009 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Westbrook has been unimpressive in his return effort, posting a 4.65 ERA with a 4.67 FIP to match. He should benefit from a move to the NL, and he seems like a natural fit with Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Westbrook is a sinkerballer, Duncan’s specialty, so a complete turnaround wouldn’t come as a shock.

The problem for the Cardinals is that instead of adding a bat they subtracted one.

Padres acquire Ryan Ludwick

Pitching is not a problem for the Padres. They might not have it in abundance, to the point where they could trade pitching for hitting, but they have enough to make them one of the stronger forces in the NL. Instead, they could use a boost on offense. They got that by sending two pitching prospects, the better to the Indians and the lesser to the Cardinals, for Ludwick.

Ludwick, who has a .358 wOBA for the season, gives the Padres another power threat to go with Adrian Gonzalez. He also plays very good defense, with a three-year UZR/150 of 4.7, which ranks fifth among MLB right fielders during that span. The Padres appear improved on offense and defense with this move, which should help them keep their spot atop the NL West.

White Sox acquire Edwin Jackson

Rumors were everywhere late last week that the Nationals coveted Edwin Jackson, and that any team interested in Adam Dunn would do well to acquire him as a possible trading chip. The White Sox, connected to Dunn for most of July, put together a package for Jackson that centered on rookie Daniel Hudson. But once the White Sox acquired Jackson, they found out that the Nationals were less interested in moving Dunn than previously thought.

Jackson does help the White Sox, in that he’s a veteran arm that gives them another useful starter. This is especially helpful with Jake Peavy’s absence. Jackson’s ERA is inflated due to a few poor starts early in the season, but his FIP sits at exactly where it was last year, 4.28, which is considerably lower than where it had been in the past. He might see his home run rate spike a bit with a move to the AL and Chicago’s hitter-friendly ballpark, but he provides a bit more reliability than Hudson.

Twins acquire Matt Capps

Could the Twins have used catching prospect Wilson Ramos to acquire a better player than Capps? That has been a debate among fans and analysts for the past few days. For his part, Ramos was having a poor year and is blocked by Joe Mauer, so he doesn’t provide much value to the Twins. Capps, however, does. He strengthens an already strong Twins relief corps, allowing them to slide Jon Rauch, who was effective as the closer, into a setup role. The Twins could have used a starter, but adding Capps was still a positive as a lone move.


Five Necessary Moves for Contenders

When the regular season resumes, 11 teams will be within five games of first place in their respective divisions. For those squads, the time to act is now.

With that in mind, here are five moves that would make a difference to those contending teams.

Colorado Rockies: Go get Dan Uggla

With Troy Tulowitzki out until mid-August, the Rockies have used Clint Barmes and Jonathan Herrera up the middle. For a mediocre team this might work, but that pair just doesn’t hit well enough to start for a team only two games out of first place in the NL West. The Rockies can’t afford to lose any ground right now, and need to improve on that unit.

Acquiring Uggla from the Florida Marlins would not only immediately replace Tulowitzki’s production, but would also help create a stronger offense once he returns. That would relegate Barmes to the bench and give the Rockies a strong up-the-middle duo. Uggla currently has a .375 wOBA, fifth among major league second basemen, and his 42.5 percent fly ball rate ranks third. The natural loft in his swing would play well at Colorado’s high altitude.

With the Marlins 10 games back in the NL East, they’re essentially out of contention. Uggla could make $10 million or more in his final year of arbitration this winter, and that’s a figure the Marlins probably can’t afford. It would be best to trade him now, while they still hold some of the cards. This winter, other teams know they’ll be desperate to trade him.

Texas Rangers: Call up Tanner Scheppers
The Rangers already struck big when they acquired Cliff Lee from the Seattle Mariners, but that doesn’t solve all of their pitching problems. C.J. Wilson’s 113 innings are more than he has pitched since when he was in the minors in 2003, and he could wear down in the second half. Rich Harden and Derek Holland are currently on the DL, and there’s no guarantee that either will pitch effectively when they return. If the Rangers could add one starter, they would help answer those question marks. Thankfully for them, that starter might already be in their system.

Scheppers, a 2009 first-round pick, opened the season in the pen, but has begun to stretch out in Triple-A, having started in his last five appearances. He’s gotten hit around a bit, but once he gets used to starting again he could be an asset for the Rangers’ rotation. He’s whiffed 11 men per nine innings in his minor league career. He can help the team solidify an already-strong unit, even if he has to move back to the bullpen. There appears to be little reason for the Rangers to leave Scheppers in the minors any longer.

Cincinnati Reds: Call up Aroldis Chapman
A few weeks ago the Reds announced that they’d move Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen to see if he could eventually help the major league team there. The Reds could certainly use him. Their current relief corps had a 1.49 WHIP, which ranks 12th in the NL.

Getty Images
Aroldis Chapman would bolster the Reds’ shaky bullpen.
The question, of course, is whether Chapman can pitch effectively at the major league level. He probably won’t help the bullpen’s WHIP — he has 14 strikeouts and seven walks in 9 1/3 innings of Triple-A relief — but his strikeout stuff would give Dusty Baker someone who could get the Reds out of jams. He might not be a sure thing, but it’s hard to imagine Chapman performing worse than the current relief options.

St. Louis Cardinals: Sit Skip Schumaker
The Cardinals have something of a problem in their infield. Their starting third baseman, David Freese, is on the DL until later this month. Felipe Lopez is a quality fill-in, but the Cardinals could use him elsewhere. The middle infield has been subpar so far, and the Cardinals need to improve in that area if they’re going to keep pace with, and eventually pass, the Reds in the NL Central.

They have already done something about their Opening Day shortstop, Brendan Ryan, who has a .251 wOBA. Tyler Greene, the club’s 2005 first-round pick, has been filling in for Ryan and has a .347 wOBA. Second baseman Skip Schumaker has also been a problem; he’s produced a well-below-average .318 OBP this season. The Cardinals can replace his production with Lopez’s. Once Freese returns, it’s a move that Tony La Russa has to make.

Tampa Bay Rays: Call up Desmond Jennings
At 54-34, the Rays would be leading any division in baseball except their own. They’ll face a challenge in the second half as they try to catch the first-place New York Yankees while subsequently holding off the Boston Red Sox. The pitching staff appears to be in good order, so the Rays will look to improve their offense. They have a number of options here, since they have a number of players who can handle multiple positions.

Their answer might lie within the organization. Desmond Jennings, their No. 1 prospect heading into the season, has hit his stride in Triple-A, and is batting .297 with 21 steals for the Durham Bulls. He could help in the outfield by playing right field and occasionally filling in for B.J. Upton in center. That would open up Matt Joyce (.365 OBP and career .348 wOBA) to play DH and Ben Zobrist to regularly shift to second. Both moves would make the Rays stronger.


Florida’s Scapegoat

You can’t fire all the players, the old saying goes, so you fire the manager. He is, after all, the easiest target. When a team performs poorly the front office can point to the guy in charge on the field, the figurehead, as the reason. It is, after all, his job to coax the best possible performances out of his players. If things go wrong, the front office can turn the manager into a symbol for the futility. By getting fans to focus on the symbol, the front office can take the heat off everyone else. And as Tim Kurkjian writes Thursday, the ever-increasing spotlight is making it harder than ever to be a big league skipper.

So far this season, we’ve seen three managers axed. After nearly three years of futility, the Baltimore Orioles finally showed Dave Trembley the door. A team in rebuilding mode, the Orioles probably wouldn’t have kept Trembley much longer anyway. But the team so greatly underperformed its modest expectations that management thought something had to change. Also, the Kansas City Royals fired Trey Hillman after a little more than two years on the job. While the Royals didn’t project to perform very well this season, they figured to be better than the 12-23 mark realized under Hillman. Under Ned Yost they have performed much better.

So it might also seem that the Florida Marlins fell short of expectations under Fredi Gonzalez. They were just 34-36, 7 1/2 games behind the first place Atlanta Braves, when the Marlins announced Gonzalez’s firing. This came as a disappointment after the 87-75, second-place finish from last year, and even the 84-77, third-place finish in 2008. The problem with this comparison is that the 2010 Marlins are not the 2008 or 2009 Marlins. They’re a different team that should carry a different set of expectations. Given the team’s preseason projection, it doesn’t appear that the team underperformed at all.

Using Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, here are the Marlins hitters’ projected weighted on-base average (wOBA) against what they have actually produced in 2010.

Only three hitters have come in below expectations. Ramirez, while not hitting to the .410 wOBA he posted last year, still ranks as MLB’s best shortstop. Maybin has since been sent to Triple-A for his poor performance. Cantu hasn’t been far below his projection. Nor has Coghlan, who has hit .316/.387/.502 since April 30. In other words, he has exceeded expectations for the last two months.

The pitchers, too, have been outperforming their projections. Here we can see the Marlins’ five starters and top two relievers projected Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) against what they’ve actually done.

This presents more of the same. A number of pitchers are greatly outpacing their projections. The only pitcher on that list not hitting his projected FIP is Nolasco, who has let a few too many fly balls leave the park. If his HR/FB ratio were around league average his FIP would be 3.95, which is much closer to his projected number.

When ESPN ran a season preview featuring ZiPS projected standings, the Marlins ended up with an average of 74.5 wins. Even rounding up, that’s a .463 winning percentage. Under Gonzalez they were 34-36, a .486 win percentage. It appears, then, that the Marlins have overachieved this season by about four wins, if they kept the pace of their first 70 games. This is nothing new under Gonzalez. The 2009 Marlins outpaced their Pythagorean record by five wins, and the 2008 team beat their Pythagorean record by three.

When he announced Gonzalez’s firing, Marlins President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest, said, “This team seems to be stuck in neutral.” But that doesn’t appear to be Gonzalez’s fault. His team, by all appearances, outperformed expectations in 2010. Yet he became the scapegoat for the Marlins’ inability to even further outpace their expected performance. However, with the team behind in the standings, the front office needed a symbol for Florida’s relative futility. That became Gonzalez — but he didn’t deserve it.


Is Bonderman Back?

Like so many young pitchers, Jeremy Bonderman’s significant promise was hampered by the injury bug. He caught it in 2007, starting with blisters and ending with pinched lateral cartilage in his right elbow that cost him most of September. In 2008 matters got worse. After 12 largely ineffective starts he hit the DL again, this time requiring shoulder surgery. His 2009 comeback didn’t quite work out, leaving concerns about his ability to recover and become the pitcher scouts once envisioned he could be. But in 2010, he has started to change some of those negative opinions.

Last night’s start ranked among his best of the season. Facing the Washington Nationals, Bonderman pitched seven innings, requiring just 95 pitches to record those 21 outs. He allowed just five hits and walked none. His biggest, and perhaps only, mistake came in the seventh, when Adam Dunn hit one over the wall in right-center. With the score then 7-2 it didn’t much matter. Bonderman went on to retire three of the next four hitters, ending his night in a strong fashion. He ended the night with seven strikeouts, giving him 59 in his 75 1/3 innings .

What stood out about Bonderman’s night was his slider usage. In 2006 and 2007, the best years of his career, he went to his slider about 35 percent of the time. That level of usage was justified because it was clearly his best pitch. But pitchers who throw a high percentage of sliders appear to be at risk for arm injury. Bill Bray, Kiko Calero, Brad Lidge, and Mike Wuertz are recent examples of slider-heavy pitchers who have spent time on the DL with arm injuries. Bonderman, it appears, understands how the usage affected his arm. He threw it just over 20 percent of the time last year, and is at around 25 percent this year, still a significant drop from his 2006-07 usage.

The 26 he threw last night was right in line with that percentage, and as usual Bonderman used the pitch effectively. He generated three swings and misses, all of which came on strike three. The only mistake he made with it was hanging one to Dunn in the seventh after throwing him two earlier in the at-bat. The slider might not be all the way back, as hitters laid off it half the time. When Bonderman’s slider is at its best hitters will chase it more often, either making weak contact or swinging and missing.

To compensate for the lower slider usage, Bonderman has employed a two-seamer, and with much success. It has been an effective, if not slower, pitch this season. In 2006 he averaged 93 miles per hour with the fastball, and in 2007 that was still at 92. This year he’s averaging just over 90 mph with the fastball. Last night, though, he averaged 91.7 mph and maxed out right under 94. Hitters had trouble with the pitch, too, as they swung and missed seven times in 55 pitches. That made for an overall 11.7 percent whiff rate, 2.5 points better than his season average.

Jeremy Bonderman might never be the pitcher that scouts envisioned when he was a first-round pick in 2001. It appears, however, that he is far from done. Not only has he pitched well so far this season, but he has demonstrated improvement, especially in his last few starts. His two-seamer, slider combination has been an effective one. He is well on his way to a solid season, no small accomplishment for a pitcher who missed the bulk of two years after undergoing shoulder surgery.


Atlanta’s Surprising Star

For your surprising statistic of the day, check out who leads the National League in batting average. Recognize the name on top — Martin Prado? If you don’t, it’s not a big deal. Not even the prospect experts at Baseball America noticed Prado’s ascension until it was obvious to anyone paying attention. Only now, in the midst of his third straight quality season is the Braves second baseman starting to get his due.

Prado, 26, never made a Braves Top 10 Prospects list at Baseball America. When he broke camp with the team in 2008, after cups of coffee during the two previous seasons, he was supposed to be just a utility infielder, someone who could play in place of Chipper Jones at third, Yunel Escobar at short, and Kelly Johnson at second. Yet despite a sprained thumb that kept him out for 59 days, the Braves still managed to get Prado 254 plate appearances in which he hit .320/.377/.461. Those are impressive numbers for anyone, much less a reserve.

In 2009 Prado again broke camp as the primary utility man. But when Kelly Johnson started to struggle, Prado found his name on the starting lineup more frequently. By July he was the regular starter at second base. The Braves nearly doubled his playing time in 2009, giving him 503 plate appearances, and hit .307/.358/.464. That’s when people started to take notice.

The Braves took a gamble on Prado this winter. Johnson was up for salary arbitration, but rather than pay him an increased salary after a year during which he struggled, the Braves decided not to tender him a contract, implicitly handing the job to Prado full-time. Once again Prado has rewarded their confidence. In addition to leading the NL in hitting (.325), he ranks fourth among senior circuit second basemen in OPS (.819). (Of course the leader in that category is Kelly Johnson, so let’s not give Atlanta too much credit.)

After a slow start, the Braves are now in first place in the NL East, in no small part because of contributions from two players making around the league minimum, Prado and Jason Heyward. While Heyward gets the hype because of his age and prodigious power, Prado, because he plays a premium defensive position, has contributed equally to the Braves record. He has been worth 1.7 Wins Above Replacement, while Heyward is just a fraction better at 1.8.

Prado is still under-appreciated and he probably always will be. But Martin Prado has made the most of his opportunity and is a big part of why the Braves currently sit in first place, even if he’s overshadowed by his teammates. For years, Martin Prado was overlooked, but given how well he’s played in the big leagues, it’s time to give him his due — the man is one of the better second baseman in baseball.


Johnson is the New Ibanez

If the Atlanta Braves could have one mulligan from this past offseason, it probably would be their decision to non-tender second baseman Kelly Johnson. While the Braves have struggled to hit for power, Johnson has supplied it in droves for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. He has 10 home runs already, which is as many as all Braves not named Jason Heyward have hit. But although Johnson’s torrid start has been impressive, it’s unlikely he’ll remain this good throughout 2010.

Johnson first showed signs of his potential in 2007, when he hit .276/.375/.457 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) as the Braves’ full-time second baseman. He struggled in the next two years, however, hence the non-tender. In many ways, the start to his 2010 season resembles that breakout season. His walk and strikeout rates are back in line. His batted ball data also line up fairly well, although Johnson is hitting a few more fly balls in 2010. Still, the results on those fly balls have been much better. Of the 35 fly balls he’s hit, 10 have left the park (28.6 percent). That mark is almost certainly unsustainable during the course of a full season and is higher than any hitter’s rate last year.

In 2009, only seven NL hitters cleared the fence with more than 20 percent of their fly balls. Mark Reynolds led the way with 26 percent. (See list below.) One thing that stands out about the names you see is that they all have high career isolated power (ISO) numbers, a statistic that is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. Among last year’s leaders in home run rate, only Raul Ibanez doesn’t have a career ISO of .200 or higher, and he’s close at .194. Johnson has a career ISO of .178, so he is a prime candidate to regress.

2009 N.L. HR/FB Leaders / Career Isolated Power:
Mark Reynolds    26.0%  /  .247
Ryan Howard      25.4%  /  .301
Prince Fielder   23.1%  /  .261
Adrian Gonzalez  22.2%  /  .225
Raul Ibanez      21.1%  /  .194
Adam Dunn        21.1%  /  .270
Albert Pujols    20.1%  /  .293

Ibanez actually provides a cautionary tale of his own. Before his mid-June injury last season, he hit 22 home runs on 85 fly balls, a 25.9 percent rate, while his career rate is just 13 percent. From his mid-July return through the end of the season, he hit 75 fly balls, only 12 of which left the park (16 percent). That percentage still ranks above his career mark but certainly brought down the numbers he produced during his powerful start.

Even when Johnson does come back to Earth, he’ll likely continue to produce for the Diamondbacks. Sabermetrician Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projection, which he updates daily, has Johnson pegged for a .219 ISO the rest of the way, so his power should remain intact even when more of his fly balls start dropping into gloves or gaps. He won’t sustain his .355 ISO for the next five months, but a .251 mark, per ZiPS, would represent a huge step forward for Johnson.


J.D. Drew and Other Bargains

It is difficult to find a bargain on the free-agent market. While teams can often find players who fit their needs, they often have to pay through the nose to get them. For example, Torii Hunter is a perfect fit for the Angels, but at $18 million per year, they’re paying a heavy premium for his services.

In his column today, Jayson Stark examines some of the most untradable contracts in baseball. But there are still values to be found on the free-agent market. Here are five guys who have turned out to be excellent free-agent bargains.

J.D. Drew, Red Sox (2007 — five years, $70 million): The Boston faithful might not appreciate him, but after his rocky debut season with the Red Sox, Drew has been excellent. In each of the past two years, his OPS has been above .900, which placed him in the top three among AL outfielders. According to Dollars, a metric we use at FanGraphs that converts wins above replacement to what a player would receive as a free agent, Drew has been worth $47.1 million in his three years in Boston, which is more than $5 million more than he is being paid. As long as his performance doesn’t completely crater over the next two years, he’ll have been worth every penny.

Ryan Dempster, Cubs (2009 — four years, $52 million) Dempster began his career as a starter, but moved to the bullpen when he signed with the Cubs in 2004. After he struggled in 2006 and 2007, they moved him back to the rotation for the 2008 season, and Dempster responded brilliantly, posting a 2.96 ERA in 206 2/3 innings. He still pitched well in 2009 after the new contract (3.65 ERA in 200 innings), and has started strong once again in 2010. According to Dollars, he was worth $16.4 million last year while being paid $8 million (his contract is back-loaded). He’s not an ace, but dependable midrotation starters are extremely valuable.

Casey Blake, Dodgers (2009 — three years, $18 million) The Dodgers liked what they saw of Blake after acquiring him from the Indians in a 2008 midseason trade, and they re-signed him before the 2009 season. In the first year of his new contract, he was incredibly valuable to Los Angeles, registering an .832 OPS while playing excellent defense at third. That performance was worth $20.7 million, so he’s already paid for himself. That’s some good news for Dodgers fans, considering the team gave up catcher Carlos Santana, one of the best prospects in baseball, in the trade to get him.

Juan Rivera, Angels (2009 — three years, $12.75 million) Rivera isn’t as good as Drew, but his salary is also much lower. The Angels paid him just $3.25 million last season and he produced an .810 OPS, which was worth more than $14 million. This year hasn’t gone as well, but it won’t take much for him to be worth his salary. Like Blake, he’s already paid for himself anyway.

Brad Penny, Cardinals (2010 — one year, $7.5 million) Penny’s return to the NL has gone very well to date, and he’s looking like Dave Duncan’s newest reclamation success, though he did pitch well down the stretch for the Giants after faltering with the Red Sox. His new splitter has produced ground balls aplenty and he has kept the ball in the park. He won’t sustain his 1.99 ERA, but he doesn’t have to justify the Cardinals’ minor investment in his right arm. According to Dollars, he’s already been worth $4.1 million, and it’s barely May.