10 Key Players for NL’s Second Half

As the second half begins — nice win by Tim Lincecum Thursday night — FanGraphs is looking at 10 players who are essential to the stretch run in each league; on Thursday we focused on the AL. What follows is the National League edition.

Dexter Fowler
The Rockies’ former top prospect offers a blend of speed and on-base savvy perhaps unseen since Kenny Lofton. Despite a legitimately horrible UZR in 2009 (minus-16.2 runs), Fowler is a better defender than right fielder Brad Hawpe. Assuming Fowler can cut down on the strikeouts (nearly 30 percent rate right now), the switch-hitter should be able to secure a full-time position, which would knock Hawpe to first base, removing the toasty Todd Helton from the equation while instantly improving the Rockies’ defense and lineup.

Nate McLouth
Acquired a little over a year ago from the Pirates, it seems that McLouth left his talent at PNC Park. McLouth is having the worst season of his career offensively and it’s not particularly close. His .269 wOBA is only part of the story, though, as he’s also played brutal defense (minus-6.9 UZR to date). A resurgence by Melky Cabrera or McLouth could help pull the Braves away from the outfield trade market. One worrisome factoid about McLouth is that he suffered a concussion in early June and might not be able to return for another few weeks.

Carlos Beltran
Beltran returned Thursday night; his overall return should knock Jeff Francoeur to the bench permanently — which would be nothing shy of a blessing for a team that desperately needs to rid itself of his dead weight.

Edinson Volquez
Another player making his 2010 season debut after the All-Star break, Volquez has recovered from Tommy John surgery and a suspension for PED usage. In 31 minor league innings, he has struck out 66 and walked only 21, which is encouraging. Another above-average arm in the rotation would make the Reds even more legitimate contenders for a playoff berth.

Jair Jurrjens
Same story, different verse for Jurrjens and the Atlanta Braves. If he can regain any semblance of the pitcher who posted consecutive FIP of 3.59 and 3.68 in 2008 and ’09, the Braves will probably run away with the NL East, leaving the Mets and Phillies to duke it out for the wild card.

Buster Posey
The Giants are the forgotten team in the NL West. If they were to get a bat like Dan Uggla, they’d be dangerous; their problem for the last year-and-a-half has been offense. Posey helps immeasurably with that. In 149 plate appearances this season he has a .409 wOBA, and could be the NL’s answer to Joe Mauer.

Manny Ramirez
Even if Manny isn’t quite the slugger he used to be in the golden days, he’s still much better than Garret Anderson and Reed Johnson, the men who have played in his absence. When Ramirez is in, the Dodgers have the best offensive outfield in the National League, and when he’s out, well, they have Garret Anderson (.467 OPS) playing in meaningful games.

Chad Billingsley
One of the league’s best-kept secrets, Billingsley deserves none of the grief he’s received for a so-so win-loss record and career-worst ERA. He is currently toting the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career and as a result a 3.40 FIP, which is the second-best of his career. He’s been brilliant all along, and if that .337 batting average on balls in play can regress during the second half, everyone else might take notice.

Johan Santana
Ignore the ERA. Santana isn’t pitching very well. He has horrible strikeout and walk ratios relative to what we’re accustomed to, and the lone saving grace is his deflated home run rate. Santana has always been able to stay slightly below the league average for jacks given up, but he’s currently halving his career average. That won’t continue for long and it won’t be pretty if that relapse coincides with his other struggles.

Jon Garland
The Padres are the surprise of baseball, but things are about to get complicated. If the Padres stick to their plan, staff ace Mat Latos will be shut down before he goes too far over the 150 innings mark. Of course, that plan didn’t involve the playoffs, and yet here they are, in first place at the break. That makes Garland’s performance all the more important. He’s pitched well to date, with his best xFIP in years, but that needs to continue and perhaps improve when and if the Padres put the lock on Latos.