Trevor Cahill

Profile: Cahill’s 2014 was a mixture of good and bad. The soft-tossing righty allowed plenty of runs with a 5.61 ERA, but his 3.89 FIP and 3.83 xFIP point to better times ahead. Left-handed hitters went wild with a .404 weighted on base average against him. A .350 batting average on balls in play, well above his career average, contributed to the pain. He was substantially better out of the bullpen with a 3.04 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 23.2 innings. The lone bright spot is a healthy 10.1% swinging strike rate, which translated to 8.54 strikeouts per nine. Unfortunately, the good was offset by 4.47 walks per nine. With $12 million owed to him in 2015, the Diamondbacks are looking at an expensive swingman. (Brad Johnson)

Quick Opinion: Cahill will need to learn how to neutralize left-handed hitters if he wants to help out of the rotation. Otherwise, he’s a very well paid long reliever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jeurys Familia

Profile: Jeurys Familia underwent successful hernia surgery in October: he and fellow Mets reliever Jenrry Mejia had similar surgeries. Familia is expected to be fully healthy by spring training while Bobby Parnell and Mejia will probably fill the closer role. Familia has the outcomes to remain an effective set-up man. He will only be 25 next year and is projected to improve his strikeout and walk rates. His sinker-fourseam-slider repertoire induced close to a 60% grounder rate, which was top 30 for relievers over 30 innings pitched. The “luck” statistics (5.2% homer-to-fly ratio and .264 batting average on balls in play) are likely to regress, which should knock his actual ERA (2.21) up closer to his expected rates of 3.21 (SIERA) or 3.49 (xFIP), but top 20 velocity could keep these outcomes grounded. (Dan Schwartz)

Quick Opinion: With Mejia, Carlos Torres, Vic Black, Josh Edgin, and a hopefully healthy Bobby Parnell, the Mets have an interesting, relatively cheap pre-arbitration eligible (outside of Parnell) bullpen complemented by Familia. That might also make it tough on owners hoping for saves out of Familia. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Tommy Kahnle

Profile: Kahnle isn’t anywhere near the closer job in Colorado, not even close enough to rack up a healthy amount of saves. He was a serviceable arm in his rookie season, but he didn’t give any indications of dominance. (Brett Talley)

Read the rest of this entry »

Jonathan Papelbon

Profile: Some figured that the end was nigh for Jonathan Papelbon because of the seven save opportunities he blew in 36 total chances in 2013. The mid-30s righty’s readouts on the radar gun have definitely lost a tick – or three – but he’s still posted some solid peripherals (a 2.78 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, and 2.91 SIERA) in the past two seasons. He revived his swinging-strike rate (12.2%) in 2014 by ditching the two-seam grip, which wasn’t doing much for him. A couple of years with bad walk rates are almost distant memories. OK, enough: This is still a pitcher in decline. Last year, he went back to mostly four-seamers and locating them up often. That could certainly continue to work, but, with that low velo, it might be quite a trick to allow only two homers in a full season again. It’s fair to expect some serious regression in his .247 batting average on balls in play, too, given all its context. Papelbon deserves credit for continually finding ways to stay ahead of the competition. A strikeout rate slowly approaching 20% has reduced his relevance in the fantasy world, however. He’s still good – definitely not great – because he’s a smart pitcher. He’s still fantasy-relevant because his survival skills and hefty contract keep him in that closer’s role. Philadelphia could eventually find a taker who won’t need to feel the same way – although that seems unlikely even in 2015. He’s an adequate second reliever in mixed leagues and could be just a tad overpriced this year. (Nicholas Minnix)

Quick Opinion: Rumors of Papelbon’s demise were premature, but strikeout percentages in the low 20s can’t endear him to fantasy owners. He owes the baseball gods a favor or two, as well, so he may be a tad overvalued in 2015. He’s relevant mostly because he’s a probable source of 30-plus saves.

Read the rest of this entry »

Koji Uehara

Profile: Entering his age 39 season as a bonafide closer for the first time in his career, Koji Uehara’s body of work from 2014 looks remarkably similar to the elite marks he put up in 2013. His strikeout rate fell a few points, but he managed to shave a hair off his already ridiculous 3% walk rate. His swinging strike percentages actually climbed, too. Even though he lost a little over a mph on his already-sub-90-mph fastball, his bread-and-butter splitter could still carry the load. Cracks began to appear in the foundation late in the year, however. His second half FIP was a less sexy 3.86, driven in large part by a jump to nearly two homers per nine innings. While some of this may have just been unfortunate luck, Boston felt the struggles were real enough to “relieve” him from his closer duties late in the year once they exited the playoff hunt. The Red Sox resigned Uehara to a two-year deal, and he’ll almost certainly return as their main ninth inning man. There is still reason to draft Uehara among the top 15 or so closers, but the potential of his late season regression sticking around needs to be baked into his projections. He seems like a prime candidate to be overdrafted on name value and the whole of his 2014 numbers. (Colin Zarzycki)

Quick Opinion: For the first time in his career, Koji Uehara headed into a season as a full-time closer. The 2014 version was a reasonable facsimile of 2013’s fantasy breakout star, although late season gopheritis tainted what looked to be a top-five reliever season. Now headed into his age 40 season, Uehara doesn’t have any overt warning lights. However, savvy owners need to factor in the potential for a decline, meaning he should come off the board later than he did last year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Takashi Toritani

Profile: A slick-fielding shortstop with a good eye at the plate, Toritani is the type of player who could find a modicum of success where more athletic players like Kazuo Matsui or Tsuyoshi Nishiokadidn’t. Toritani is coming off a productive year for the Hanshin Tigers, having produced a .313/.406/.415 line, eight home runs, 73 RBIs and 10 stolen bases. He was also second in the Central League with 87 walks, a finish that ended his three-year reign as the CL leader in that category. Toritani is a smart, selective hitter who can grind out at-bats until he gets a pitch he thinks he can handle. His power numbers in Japan — 120 career home runs — are similar to what Norichika Aoki put up in NPB, but Koshien Stadium, where the Tigers play, favors pitchers more than Aoki’s old stomping ground, hitter-friendly Jingu Stadium. Still, Toritani has reached double-digit home runs only once in the past four seasons, and it might be asking a lot to expect to see any kind of surge if he were to move to the majors. Defensively Toritani is one of the best in Japan at shortstop, owing more to pure fielding prowess than the athleticism Nishioka or Munenori Kawasaki displayed. His arm would be greatly tested were he to play shortstop everyday in the majors and he’s probably better suited to second base. He’s also proven to be supremely durable, the flip side of that meaning there’s already a lot of mileage on the tires. Unfortunately for American fans, Toritani took a multi-year deal to return to the Tigers and, now 33, probably won’t ever play in Major League Baseball. (Jason Coskrey)

Quick Opinion: Takashi Toritani reportedly considered coming to America as a free agent in 2012, but remained in Japan after a down year. Now 33, Toritani gave it another shot and ended up returning home. That might be all she wrote for his Major League Baseball chances.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tony Abreu

Profile: Abreu was signed by the Giants to fill a utility infield role in 2013 and that is exactly what he did. He started 22 games at second base (30 appearances in total) while Marco Scutaro was injured and filled in over at both third and shortstop sporadically. However, defense is Abreu’s game, as evidenced by his two home runs and zero stolen bases over 147 plate appearances, so his usefulness is the fantasy game is almost nil. He’ll fill the exact same role in 2014, so fantasy owners can simply bypass him altogether. Yes, even in the deepest of leagues, he has no value. (Howard Bender)

Quick Opinion: Abreu will fill the Giants’ utility infielder role once again in 2014 which means fantasy owners can once again omit him from their lists. With no stick and no speed on the bases, he offers about as much value as Joe Buck has doing sports commentary.

Read the rest of this entry »

Miguel Cabrera

Profile: Miguel Cabrera didn’t repeat his 2012 Triple Crown, and he faded badly down the stretch as minor injuries piled up… and yet he still had what was probably the best year of his life. Cabrera’s home run per fly ball rate reached an absurd 25.4%, and while it’s difficult to count on that happening again, it’s not like it was a huge jump from 2012’s 23.0%. At some point he’s going to slow down, but he’s only headed into his age-31 season. The move back across the diamond to first base should help reduce some of the wear and tear, too. MVP arguments aside, we’re probably watching one of the top ten right handed hitters in the history of his game in his prime. Put him down for another .330ish average, 35-45 homers, and 130 runs batted in, and if you’re lucky enough to draft him consider yourself a step ahead of the competition. (Mike Petriello)

Quick Opinion: Miguel Cabrera may never play an inning at third again, but he’ll still have eligibility there in 2014, and that plus his historic bat makes him a contender for first overall pick in any draft.

Read the rest of this entry »

Travis d’Arnaud

Profile: Travis d’Arnaud may have a backwards and upside-down capital P on the back of his jersey — which is undeniably sweet — but his fantasy value in the coming years is more debatable. Some of the things that show up fairly quickly, whether you are watching the player play or looking at his small-sample major league stats, will be useful in real life but not so much in batting-average fantasy leagues. It looks like he might have good patience, for example. He swung and reached less than the league, and those stats stabilize quickly. He was always supposed to do this, too, according to scouts. Defensively, he’s a good framer, blocker and receiver, that much was immediately clear. His contact rate was good in the majors and he never really struggled with strikeouts in the minor leagues. So far, so good. The problem is that he didn’t show power in his short major league stint last year, and the places where he did show power in the minor leagues were largely hitter-friendly parks. If he does show that 18-20 homer power that is supposedly on it’s way, he’ll be fantasy relevant even if his average is in the .250s. If he doesn’t… well, he’ll be useful to the Mets. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: The good news is that the stuff that matters in short samples all went d’Arnaud’s way last year. And the good news about the bad news — his power didn’t show — is that power takes the longest to stabilize. We still don’t know how powerful the Mets’ catcher will be in the majors, and that makes all the difference to his fantasy value.

Read the rest of this entry »

Freddy Galvis

Profile: If you really value positional flexibility in fantasy baseball, Galvis might offer decent value beyond his raw numbers, as he might qualify at second, short, third, and outfield in some leagues. With the Phillies’ middle infield manned by the aging Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, and Cody Asche hardly a lock at third base for the 2014 Phillies, Galvis might have some opportunities to play. He will be just 24 during the 2014 season, but beyond that, there is not much upside. He never hit in the upper minors, with few walks and little power. He had a little speed, but it was not mind-blowing, and he does not have the sort of on-base skills that would make it useful anyway. The chance that he could luck into playing time means that he might have some marginal value in very deep NL-only leagues, but even that is iffy. Pass. (Matt Klaassen)

Quick Opinion: Freddy Galvis has little to recommend him in fantasy baseball aside from the chance that he might luck into some playing time.

Read the rest of this entry »