Brewers Future Without Prince Fielder

The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in odd straits. On one hand, they’re coming off a season in which they barged to 96 wins and a division title. Their chief rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, lost their franchise player. On the other hand, however, the Brewers are poised to lose Prince Fielder to free agency, and reigning National League MVP Ryan Braun may be facing a 50-game suspension.

So what to make of this diminished team in this diminished division?

In 2011, the Brewers notched an offensive WAR of 32.9 and a pitching WAR of 18.1. Add that to the replacement-level estimate of 43 WAR, and you get 93 wins for the Brewers last season, which, of course, is close to their actual total. Still, their starting baseline is a bit lower than their 96-66 record would suggest.

The most obvious consideration is the pending loss of Fielder. Fielder, who’s been linked in recent days to the Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners, figures to be a five- to seven-win player in each of the next few seasons, so his absence will be damaging. Mat Gamel will likely take over for Fielder next season, and Gamel’s recent strong showing at Triple-A suggests he can at least tread water. Still, a loss of about four wins seems likely.

If recent reports about Braun are any guide, then he seems likely to be suspended for roughly a third of the season. In Braun’s stead, the Brewers will probably trot out Carlos Gomez (and perhaps slide Nyjer Morgan to left) or Norichika Aoki, should they come to terms with the Japanese outfielder by the Jan. 17 deadline. Either scenario promises a serious dropoff in terms of offensive production. Even in a span of “just” 50 games, the Brewers could be facing the loss of 1.5-2 wins.

On the upside, there’s the addition of third baseman Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez has health concerns and is past his prime, but he still constitutes a hefty upgrade for the Brewers. Last season, Milwaukee third sackers (meaning, mostly, Casey McGehee) combined to “hit” .215/.275/.324, while the average National Leaguer at the position batted .257/.317/.387. That’s a substantial deficit, and the Brewers — so long as Ramirez can stay generally healthy — should improve upon those year-ago levels by quite a bit. That will help cushion against the permanent loss of Fielder and the temporary loss of Braun.

Elsewhere, sloughing off Yuniesky Betancourt was a positive development, even if his replacement is the uninspiring Alex Gonzalez. However, Morgan is ripe to regress to career norms with the bat. Add it all up, and the Milwaukee offense will be significantly worse in 2012, as you might expect given recent events.

On the pitching side of things, the Brewers are coming off a season in which they ranked third in the NL in team xFIP. The fact that they ranked a more modest seventh in ERA suggests some combination of bad defense and bad luck. The defense should be somewhat improved by the departures of Fielder and Betancourt. As for improved luck, the main beneficiary might be ace Zack Greinke.

In 2011, Greinke put up a rather middling ERA of 3.83, but his xFIP — which takes into account his outstanding peripheral indicators — was a stellar 2.56. If Greinke can drop his BABIP, increase his strand rate a bit and get a little better defense behind him — all reasonable assumptions — his run-prevention numbers should improve notably. On this point, the ZiPS projection system foresees a big year for Greinke. Behind Greinke, the Brewers can potentially boast a rotation full of better-than-average starters, as well as a bullpen that’s quite deep from the right side.

The most serious issue for Milwaukee will of course be papering over the losses to the offense, a goal that will entail keeping guys like Ramirez and Rickie Weeks healthy and managing to hang on during Braun’s likely absence. The Brewers might be banking on decline from the Pujols-less Cardinals, but Adam Wainwright returns and Carlos Beltran is an addition that will lessen the blow from losing Pujols considerably.

In the end, it might be that winning the NL Central in 2012 will require fewer than 90 victories. Even with that lowered bar, however, the Brewers might not have enough to repeat. Regardless of who prevails, expect a much closer race in the season to come.