Japans’ Best, Now and Future

The 2014 season in Nippon Professional Baseball began with the assumption Hiroshima Carp pitcher Kenta Maeda or Orix Buffaloes ace Chihiro Kaneko, or both, would follow in the footsteps of Masahiro Tanaka and head to Major League Baseball via the posting system.

Things will be the same in 2015, since neither Maeda nor Kaneko was posted in 2014. This is the new normal in Japan. As respect for NPB, already considered the second best league in the world, continues to grow, so too does the reality that MLB teams will try to swoop in and snatch up top players.

Japanese fans take this in stride these days. Hideo Nomo was vilified for leaving in 1995, but Tanaka was hailed as a hero last year as fans beamed with pride because their best proved they could play in the world’s best league. You can’t fit every good Japanese player with an “MLB ship by” tag, though, because not every player harbors a desire to leave Japan. But for those who do the door is somewhat open.

Maeda (and/or Kaneko) is still expected to be among the next group of NPB players who make the leap. Going from NPB to MLB requires a number of adjustments, and the fact that not every player makes the transition successfully is also true of players from other parts of the world as well.

For Japanese pitchers especially, it’s not the game itself that’s different — although, depending on the year, the ball and the strike zone have been different sizes in Japan — it’s the approach taken in MLB vs. in Japan, to say nothing of the cultural differences in life off the field.

Many Japanese teams rely on small ball and manufacturing runs far more than their non-Kansas City Royals counterparts in America. Where MLB teams try to put up crooked numbers in the early innings, it’s not uncommon to see an NPB leadoff hitter hit a single or double in the top of the first and promptly be bunted over by the number two hitter.

The rigidity of Japanese business culture also bleeds over onto the diamond in some ways. Many managers try to micromanage out mistakes and take what few choices a player has out of his hands. That happens a great deal, though not all the time, in the lower levels in Japan. When Naoya Washiya, a speedy outfielder drafted by the Washington Nationals in the 42nd round in 2008 and the 14th round in 2009, went to the U.S. for college, he had to be broken of the habit of constantly looking to the dugout for approval before even thinking of attempting to steal a base. This after being told repeatedly he always had the green light unless explicitly told otherwise. It had been ingrained in him in Japan to not go off on his own for fear of making a mistake and losing face for the team, and that was a hard habit to break.

Physically, the MLB season is more demanding. There are more games, more travel, no set weekly days off, nor a 12-inning limit on games like there is in Japan. There are more teams and players to study, and while the talent gap at the top isn’t extremely large, it widens quickly as you go down the depth chart.

There will continue to be Japanese players who can make the adjustments and thrive in America, like Ichiro Suzuki and Yu Darvish, and those who fall short, the way Kei Igawa and Tsuyoshi Nishioka did.

Maeda, 26, will probably be among the next to take the challenge, possibly after next season. Maeda’s arsenal consists mostly of a fastball, a very good slider, a change-up, shuuto and curveball. He throws all with superb command. Maeda doesn’t bring a lot of velocity to the table so his command will be the key factor if he ever makes the move.

“Maeken” wasn’t as dominant in 2014 as he’s been past years but still finished 11-9 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 161 strikeouts in 187 innings. Maeda also had a good showing during the MLB-Japan All-Star Series in November, throwing five scoreless innings for Samurai Japan in a 2-0 Game 1 win. As an elite talent, he’s likely to be able to make the jump.

Another couple of years, if not next year, could see Kaneko, 31, posted. Kaneko pushed his international free agency date back by exercising domestic free agency rights, and ended up re-signing with the Buffaloes on a four-year deal. Kaneko maintained that pitching in the majors is still something he wants to do, so smart money is on him being posted in the near future, rather than playing out four years and trying to latch on with a team as a 35-year old.

Another pitcher who could land on the market, though to not nearly the same fanfare, is 27-year-old Yokohama BayStars fireballer Shun Yamaguchi, who is 25-33 with 111 saves and a 3.13 ERA between starting and relieving over nine seasons. Yamaguchi throws hard and has a good forkball, but can also be erratic and hittable.

Atsushi Nomi, who recently re-signed with the Hanshin Tigers, is a lefty who uses control and a deception to his advantage and has drawn interest from scouts. Nomi might have trouble with the MLB strike zone, and could find his stuff a little more hittable in the West. He’s also 35. Still, he might want to take the plunge prior to his new three-year deal being up and while he still has some remnants of decent velocity left. American interest will probably depend mostly on his posting price.

Orix Buffaloes outfielder Yoshio Itoi has reportedly been trying to be posted for years. He’s approaching full free agency in a little over two seasons, so he finally may have the leverage to get the ball rolling. Itoi can almost do it all and continues to be a high-level player in Japan, but is already 33-years old, and a lack on home run power has usually been one of the knocks on his game. He’s still an adept doubles hitter with a good approach at the plate. He might have more trouble hitting for power if he moves to MLB’s bigger ballparks, but would probably produce extra-base hits at a decent clip.

The Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters’ Daikan Yoh has the same type of repertoire as his former teammate Itoi — yujigood bat, good speed and good defense. Itoi is the probably the better of the two, but Yoh is younger at 27. Yoh was .293/.367/.495 with 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2014 and, like Itoi, free agency is looming, putting him in the sweetspot to possibly be posted.

More intriguing than Yoh is Fighters left fielder Sho Nakata, who has grown considerably over the last few years. Hideki Matsui has been the only Japanese power hitter to really make the transition work (and Matsui was much better) but Nakata, who has at least 24 home runs each of the last three years and has improved his overall approach at the plate, is at least a curiosity. Once a feast-or-famine hitter, he’s become more well-rounded, while also lowering his strikeouts considerably.

“If Nakata gets more disciplined at the plate, meaning less free-swinging, I think he could go to the major leagues,” said one MLB scout. “I like that power. I don’t know how much those numbers will translate to MLB.”

Looking further out on the horizon, Fukuoka Softbank Hawks outfielder Yuki Yanagita is generating interest. “He’s a multiple-tool player,” the scout said. “He can hit, has a little bit of power, he can hit for average, he has speed and steals bases, and he can hit to all parts of the field. He’s aggressive defensively. He covers a lot of range. A lot of people want to see him in MLB now.”

Yanagita had a breakout year in 2014, slashing .317/413/.452. Yanagita, who bats from the left side, hit .326 against left-handers and .312 against right-handers. He also hit .331 with runners in scoring position. Yanagita hit 15 home runs, drew 72 walks, drove in 70 runs and stole 33 bases while playing in all 144 games.

He’s an aggressive hitter and that can get the best of him, evidenced by some of the wild hacks he let loose on occasion. Yanagita also has room for improvement against splitters and change-ups in Japan, and is somewhat strikeout prone, whiffing 131 times, fourth most in the Pacific League.

Now that Takashi Toritani chose to stay in Japan rather than come stateside, it’s possible there won’t be a great market for the Hiroshima Carp’s Ryosuke Kikuchi four to five years down the road.

Watching the 24-year old field second base is worth a posting fee alone. He’s a spectacular fielder who, unlike some past Japanese infielders, probably wouldn’t have to shift from his natural position if he were to play in MLB and already plays most of his home games on grass.

Kikuchi, hit .325 this year, his third pro season, with 11 home runs and 23 stolen bases, a far cry from the .229 and .247 averages he put up the previous two seasons. If he can consistently hit for average it would shore up one of big weaknesses in his profile.

Chiba Lotte Marines pitcher Yuji Nishino is armed with a very good splitter and does a great impression of Koji Uehara. Along with the Hanshin Tigers’ Shintaro Fujinami, a great talent with a high ceiling who needs to work on the secondary pitches he pairs with his above-average fastball, these areotani two other players to watch closely down the line.

The Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters’ Shohei Otani remains the ultimate wild card.
The Fighters star is still a long way from free agency, but the fact the team successfully changed his mind about beginning his career in Japan suggests the two sides have some sort of posting mechanism in place already, if/when Otani wants to make the move.

Nippon Ham let Otani get his feet wet as a two-way player in 2013, when he started off playing right field and was eased into starting games on the mound. The reins were loosened this season. Otani was in the Fighters’ Opening Day rotation and ended up starting 24 games, while also making 234 plate appearances. He was the first Japanese player to win 10 games as a pitcher while also hitting 10 home runs in the same season.

Some feel Otani projects higher as a pitcher. He went 11-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 179 strikeouts in 2014, leading Japan with a 10.37 strikeouts per nine rate. He was on the mound for 155 1/3 innings, and walked 57.

His fastball has great velocity (mid to upper 90s), decent life and is among the best in Japan. He topped out at 162 km (101 mph), the fastest-ever by a Japanese pitcher in a regular-season game, in his final start of the season on October fifth. Otani’s splitter is another great weapon and he also features a good slider and will mix in a big, slow curve. Just 20 years old, he’ll continue to get better and find new ways to attack hitters.

Otani is not on Yu Darvish’s level yet, even as comparisons continue to roll in, but he’s trending upward in a big way. As a hitter he produced a .274/.338/.505 line with 10 home runs and 31 RBIs and was mostly in the lineup as a designated hitter.

There’s most definitely another Nori Aoki in this group, and odds are, there’s another Yu Darvish. But in the short term, especially with new posting rules in place, there may not be a top-shelf player that comes over from Japan to dominate the world’s best league. We know there won’t be one this year at least.