Joey Votto is Chasing History

Some records in baseball have become legendary over the years, to the point where most baseball fans know exactly what the number and record holder are. The records for most career no-hitters (7, Nolan Ryan), longest hitting streak (56 games, Joe DiMaggio), consecutive games played (2,632, Cal Ripken), and stolen bases in a season (130, Rickey Henderson) are some of the more famous numbers in the sport, and have stood the test of time with few challengers since they were established. But, there’s actually another record that hasn’t been seriously threatened in 75 years that is coming under assault this season, but you probably haven’t heard much about it yet — Joey Votto is poised to make a run at the record for the most doubles in a season.

The current record holder is Earl Webb, who hit 67 doubles for the Boston Red Sox in 1931. He broke George Burns’ record of 64 doubles that had been set five years previous to that. In fact, only six players in history have ever recorded 60 or more doubles in a season, and all of six of them did it in the 11 seasons between 1926 and 1936. For hitters, it was the golden age of the double.

The last player to even make a run at Webb’s record was Todd Helton in 2000. Aided by playing in Coors Field during the peak of the offensive surge at the turn of the century, Helton finished the season with 59 doubles, and his season represents the gold standard for modern day doubles production. With 30 doubles in his first 68 games, Votto’s on pace to obliterate Helton’s mark and actually run down Webb as well.

At his current pace, Votto would end the season with 71 doubles, and while history suggests he probably can’t keep hitting doubles at this pace, he is the perfect modern day hitter to challenge Webb’s record.

Doubles require line drives, because line drives are both hit hard enough to get into the gaps or down the lines and are not hit high enough to clear any fences for a home run. Among the 330 players with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2002, only two (Mark Loretta and Todd Helton) have a higher line drive rate than Votto’s 24.8%. He’s turned things up another notch in the first half of 2012, posting a ridiculous 33.0% line drive rate this season, up from the 27.5% mark he posted last year, and easily the best single season line drive rate since batted ball data began being collected.

In addition to hitting line drives, Votto is also remarkable at avoiding infield flies – the kinds of balls in play that are outs nearly 100% of the time. He hasn’t hit a single pop-up all year, which might be weird if he didn’t go the entire 2010 season without hitting an infield fly. In fact, his one pop-up from last year is starting to look like the aberration. When Votto hits the ball, it goes out, not up.

He also excels in one other skill critical to racking up a lot of doubles – driving the ball to the opposite field. Taking out his 13 home runs, Votto has put 170 balls in the field of play this season — 60 to left, 63 to center, 49 to right. His opposite field power is the driving force behind his run at Webb’s doubles records, as half of his 30 doubles have come on balls hit to left field. He’s the league leader in opposite field doubles with 15, but his eight doubles to center field rank fourth in the league, and there are 45 hitters with more pulled doubles this season than Votto. For Votto, left field is his doubles sweet spot.

This combination of high line drive rate and willingness to go to the opposite field is the perfect recipe for a lot of extra base hits that don’t quite clear the wall, and while Votto runs pretty well for a first baseman, he doesn’t run so well that he’s likely to keep on going for third. If Votto was a right-handed hitter, he’d likely have a better chance at turning some of those doubles into triples, but given his average speed and the fact that he’s hitting the ball towards third base, he’s more likely to settle for two bases instead of trying for three. Being a high doubles hitter requires an interesting combination of skills, and no player in today’s game specializes in these more than Votto.

If anything is going to keep him from the record, though, it might just be his home park. The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati has historically been a below average park for home runs because the shorter fences convert would-be doubles into home runs. In fact, GABP has historically inflated home runs by right-handed hitters (most of whom pull the ball to left field, which is Votto’s doubles field) by 13 percent, while playing as a just slightly below average doubles park due to those home runs.

When you look at the parks that historically inflate doubles (Colorado, Boston, Arizona), you begin to understand why Helton, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Luis Gonzalez, and Matt Holliday have all managed seasons with at least 50 doubles in the past 10 years. Since the Reds opened their new stadium, they’ve only had two hitters get even 40 doubles in a season — Sean Casey in 2004 and Votto last year.

So, can Votto break Webb’s record? It won’t be easy, as he’ll need 38 doubles over the Reds remaining 94 games, and he’s never hit more than 40 in 161 games in any prior season. Even with Votto’s predilection for line drives to the opposite field, the game has changed dramatically since Webb played, as the league average strikeout rate is now more than twice as high as it was back in 1931, while the average home run rate is twice as high. More strikeouts and more home runs equal many fewer chances for doubles, which is why no one has crossed the 60 double mark in 75 years. Votto’s halfway there, though, and has more than half the season remaining, so Webb could be in for his first real challenge in a very long time.