Make-or-Break AL Players

Baseball games that actually count resume today; so upon starting the second half, it seemed prudent to look at some players with pivotal roles in the American League playoff race. Almost all top-10 lists will be ripe for subjective arguments and this one should be no exception.

That said, here are 10 players, in no particular order, who could make or break the AL playoff races.

Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays’ bullpen is a big reason why they’re ahead of the Red Sox for the Wild Card and maintaining that advantage will be essential down the stretch. Joaquin Benoit has been nothing short of amazing for Tampa Bay and is one of the season’s best free-agent signings. Tampa inked him to a minor league contract back in February, and Benoit has delivered a career-high in strikeout and ground ball rates along with a career-low walk rate. His 1.99 xFIP, a measure of fielding-independent ERA calculated by strikeouts, walks and normalized home-run-to-fly-ball rate, is the second-best mark in baseball behind Jonathan Broxton. This level of success is unprecedented for Benoit, and the Rays need it to continue.

Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox
Boston currently sits three games outside of a playoff spot. They are going to need some improvement, especially in the rotation, to catch up. But they can’t afford any player falling back from his first-half performance. The player this might be most important for is Adrian Beltre. Now, anyone who watched Beltre play with the Seattle Mariners could have foreseen that Beltre would do well once removed from Safeco, but Fenway Park has not been the end-all, be-all catalyst for Beltre’s offensive resurgence. Beltre has .841 OPS at home compared to a remarkable .979 mark on the road. Beltre is hitting at an offensive level that he has not even sniffed since his monster 2004 season. Can he keep it going through the second half?

Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers
Yes, the Rangers are in first and they now have Cliff Lee, but their lead in the AL West (4 1/2 games) isn’t huge. Colby Lewis (3.33 ERA in 17 starts) was about as unknown as you could get entering this season. After spending some unremarkable time coming up through the minors, Lewis ended up in Japan from 2008-09 and underwent a complete transformation. His success in Japan still presented difficulties when figuring out how he might do stateside — difficulties that Lewis has mitigated but not fully assuaged in this first half. Lewis has been nothing short of — pardon the expression — a home run for the Rangers. What is important for Texas is that he stay somewhere in the vicinity of this new Colby Lewis and not revert, as Major League hitters get to see him for the third or fourth time, back to pre-2008 Colby Lewis.

Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Angels are yet again trying to beat projections and over-perform. They are in a tough position this season, already trailing in the AL West standings by a sizable margin that could get larger after the Rangers traded for Lee. The Angels need some serious improvement in their overall talent level to catch the Rangers and for that they need Scott Kazmir (6.92 ERA) to rediscover his talent.

Kazmir has been a fickle performer for Anaheim. While he was superb down the stretch for them last season, his strikeout rates continued to fall and he eventually bombed in the postseason. He straightened out that inconsistency in 2010 but in a negative way. His average fastball velocity, 90.5 mph, is at the lowest point of his career, but that, by itself, does not mean he is injured. If Kazmir is actually healthy, there might still be a chance for Kazmir to pitch as he once did. If he could find that form again, that would represent a huge upgrade for the Angels, arguably one of similar magnitude as the Rangers’ addition of Lee.

J.J. Putz, Chicago White Sox
The AL Central houses the real dogfight in the American League. Two teams are within 3 1/2 games of Chicago but, as division leaders, the White Sox still have two key questions facing their pitching. The bullpen has been an asset for Chicago but almost totally because of Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz. Thornton has been performing well for several years now, but Putz was a disaster for the Mets last season. This year, Putz is back to his old glory. Thanks to an increased use of his splitter, Putz has his strikeouts back above one per inning and his 2.41 xFIP is his best mark since 2006. Can he keep it up? Putz is certainly an injury risk and if he slips, then the White Sox bullpen gets a lot weaker.

Daniel Hudson, Chicago White Sox
Other than Putz, the biggest key to the Sox’s second half is Hudson. With Jake Peavy out for the season, Hudson will fill his spot in the rotation. Hudson’s meteoric rise in 2009 saw him climb from Class-A to the majors and he hasn’t cooled off yet. He began this season back in the Triple-A rotation and excelled with 108 strikeouts and just 31 walks in 93 1/3 innings. Hudson’s performance in Chicago is critical to the White Sox’s success; solid performances from him directly helps their postseason chances and takes the pressure off the White Sox’s front office to go shopping for a starting pitcher.

Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
The Twins were the early-season favorite for the AL Central and still remain in the hunt, but so far have disappointed. One of the causes of that disappointment is the less-than-expected production of Joe Mauer. Few expected Mauer to repeat his 2009 numbers, but a repeat of his 2008 numbers was certainly achievable; instead, Mauer has skipped another year back to his 2007 self. (His .293 average is the same as it was in ’07.) He’s still a valuable asset, but Minnesota is relying on more out of him. Mauer is suffering from a batting average on balls in play (.315) that is much lower than his career average (.341), so a resurgence in the second half seems more likely than not.

Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
For the Twins to have success, any improvement from Joe Mauer must be met with zero diminishing production from anyone else, and that’s where Justin Morneau factors in. Morneau has been an absolute beast at the plate this year, upping his line-drive rate and spiking his batting average to a level unusual even for him. In fact, Morneau leads all hitters in WAR with a 5.0 mark at the break. While his power is at a career-high level as well, the real outlier is in his batting average. Morneau’s previous career best was a .300 average in 2008 — he is hitting .345 this year. That is just a point behind the major league lead, and a figure that’s a fantastic bet to return to Earth. His contributions thus far have been terrific, but they might go for naught if he does not manage to sustain them.

Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
A half game behind Chicago for the division lead, the Tigers have serious questions too. Namely, can Jose Valverde keep up the career year? Valverde’s ERA stands at 0.92 coming into the second half but his FIP and xFIP (projected FIP) indicate that he’s been very fortunate to keep it that low. Valverde, remarkably, has gone from a high-strikeout, fly ball-heavy pitcher to one getting an extreme number of ground balls without losing too many of the strikeouts. Valverde has been a big success for the Tigers, but with Joel Zumaya now out for the rest of the year, the Tigers will be leaning on Valverde even more. If he falters it would represent a big blow to the bullpen’s overall effectiveness due to the high leverage of innings that Valverde has been spitting out with great success.

Brennan Boesch, Detroit Tigers
The bullpen isn’t the only unit sitting on a precarious edge for Detroit. The Tigers have featured just four serious hitters. Magglio Ordonez, Johnny Damon and Miguel Cabrera come as no surprise, but the fourth, Brennan Boesch, should. Boesch’s .990 OPS is surprising because his minor league development didn’t hint at such an output.

After just 66 trips to the plate with Triple-A Toledo this year, Boesch’s 1.076 OPS got him noticed and subsequently promoted. What drove that improvement, however, was a ridiculous .500 average on batted balls, a figure not even Ted Williams could dream of maintaining. Boesch has adjusted to the Majors well, but once again he is benefitting from an inflated (.381) BABIP that should fall. That would create a hole in the middle of Detroit’s lineup and could sink the Tigers’ playoff chances.