While Delmon Young has yet to live up to his prospect hype, he is still just 27-years-old. Theoretically, he should be headed into the prime of his career, and baseball has seen a number of other players struggle early in their careers, only to develop into productive players at a later age. Raul Ibanez didn’t have his first productive season until age 29. Ben Zobrist turned into an effective player at age 27, seemingly out of nowhere. Garrett Jones came on the scene at 28, the same age that Nelson Cruz finally started hitting big league pitching. In each case, previously unproductive players turned into far more than they looked like earlier in their careers, and they should stand as a reason for optimism regarding Young’s future.

However, in each of those cases, those players hadn’t really failed at the Major League level in any kind of extended trial. They were minor league lifers, tagged with the 4A label, and they spent their early twenties just trying to earn a shot at the Majors. Rather than comparing Young to guys who simply didn’t get a chance to show what they could do earlier in their careers, I wanted to see if I could find some examples of late bloomers who had already accumulated significant Major League careers, and after struggling at the highest level, eventually turned into good players as they got into their peak seasons.

So, I started off by looking for players with similar track records to Delmon Young. Through his 2012 season, when he was 26-years-old, Young had racked up 3,575 plate appearances and totaled just 0.8 WAR. So, I set the playing time limit to 3,500 plate appearances capped career WAR through age 26 at less than 6. These filters would give us players who had racked up approximately six years worth of playing time, and had averaged fewer than 1 WAR per season during that time.

The problem? It’s a really small list. In the last 100 years, there have been four players have managed to get that much playing time early in their career without being particularly effective. Those four, in order of least production:

Delmon Young: 3,575 PA, 0.8 WAR
Charlie Grimm: 3,847 PA, 4.9 WAR
Cristian Guzman: 3,538 PA, 5.3 WAR
Ed Kranepool: 3,684 PA, 5.4 WAR

Grimm, Guzman, and Kranepool weren’t very effective players in their early twenties, but they were all better than Young by a pretty decent margin. No player in the last 100 years has played as much at as ineffective of a level as Delmon Young through this same point in his career. However, the three other guys on the list do offer some hope for Young’s future.

Through age 26, Grimm was a first baseman without much power, as he hit .285/.331/.392, good for just a 90 wRC+. He’d shown flashes of potential, including an excellent season at age 24, but hadn’t sustained that early promise. His age 27 season didn’t include any kind of miraculous breakout (100 wRC+, 0.7 WAR), but it began a steady ascent towards being a relatively decent player. From age 27 to 37, Grimm hit .294/.349/.401, good for a 98 wRC+, and he racked up 14.6 WAR in 4,898 pate appearances. On a per season basis, that puts him around 1.8 WAR per full year, which is roughly the performance of a league average player.

Kranepool had a similar improvement, going from a 90 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances through age 26 to a 102 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR per 600 plate appearances from age 27 to 34. He didn’t have the same staying power as Grimm, but he put together a nice three year run from 1974 to 1976 as a well above average hitter, despite showing little of that offensive potential early in his career.

Guzman is the least simmilar player to Young, as he got to the Majors early based on his speed-and-defense profile at a young age, but even he performed better from 27 to 32 than he had earlier in his career. Through age 26, Guzman had a 74 wRC+ and 0.9 WAR per 600 plate appearances, but from 27 on, he put up an 83 wRC+ and averaged 1.3 WAR per 600 trips to the plate. It’s not a huge gain, but Guzman did have one big season at age 30, putting his skills together to give the Nationals a real boost in 2008.

In each case, previously unproductive players turned into useful role players later in their careers, even after struggling for years in the big leagues with a promotion they probably weren’t ready for. However, we can’t ignore the fact that each player was significantly better than Young during their formative years, and so they were starting from a higher baseline than he is. And, of course, none of the three even turned into above average players, and it’s probably safe to write off the idea of Young becoming any kind of star.

But, for all the ridicule the Phillies got for bringing Young on board, there is some precedent of bad young players becoming useful middle aged players. It might not be quite as rosy of an outlook as comparing him to guys like Ibanez, Cruz, or Jones, but Young isn’t worthy completely giving up on yet. There’s still a chance he has a few decent seasons in him yet.

When Opening Day day rolls around in a few months, Major League teams will have to declare an active 25 man roster. That roster will, in most cases, be divided into 13 position players and 12 pitchers, with five of those pitchers designated as starters, and the rest serving as relievers out of the bullpen. However, while teams will begin the season with five starters, any team with a strong hope of contending in 2013 should have a sixth starter waiting in the wings.

Because of the frequency of pitcher injuries, it is exceedingly rare for a team to make it through the whole season without leaning on a starter who didn’t begin the year in their rotation. Last year, 186 different pitchers threw at least 50 innings as a starter, which works out to an average of just over six per team. While the sixth starter often begins the season either in Triple-A or in long relief, they’ll usually end up throwing nearly half a season’s worth of innings overall, their performance can make a significant difference on a team’s final record.

For instance, A.J. Griffin didn’t join the A’s until June 24th, when he was called up from Sacramento to replace the injured Brandon McCarthy. He proceeded to post a 3.06 ERA in 15 starts over the remainder of the season, and the A’s went 12-3 when he took the hill. The A’s beat out the Rangers for the AL West title by one game. While no single player can be responsible for a division title, it is pretty clear that the A’s wouldn’t have managed to finish ahead of Texas had Griffin not put together a remarkable second half of the season. Kris Medlen, Michael Fiers, Alex Cobb, and Hisashi Iwakuma also made significant contributions to their teams after joining the rotation in mid-season.

So, which teams are prepared for the inevitable need for a sixth starter heading into 2013? Here are three pitchers who give their teams necessary depth, and could end up being big parts of a winning club even if they don’t have a job coming out of spring training.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit

Trade rumors have been swirling around Porcello ever since the Tigers re-signed Anibal Sanchez, as Porcello is seemingly without a starting spot headed into the year. He’s certainly better than many other pitchers penciled into rotations on other teams, so a trade would make some sense. However, the Tigers might want to consider just keeping Porcello for themselves.

Doug Fister had two different stints on the disabled list last year resulting from a costochrondal strain, and has only made 30 starts in a season once in three full big league seasons. Drew Smyley only threw 117 innings last year between Triple-A and the Majors, and is still at the point of his career where Detroit isn’t going to want to push him too quickly. Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer both have their own injury histories as well. Behind Justin Verlander, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Tigers will need to fill gaps from time to time, and the drop-off to the next best starter if Porcello is trade would be extreme.

Casey Crosby would probably be first in line to replace Porcello, and he was nothing short of a disaster in three mid-season appearances last year, giving up 13 runs in 12 1/3 innings. His command simply isn’t yet Major League caliber, and having Crosby run up 100 pitches in four innings every fifth day would put a large strain on an already thin bullpen. While Porcello might hold more value for another team that could use him as a full season starter, the Tigers should be interested in minimizing the risk of losing the division by having to turn to inadequate replacements if injuries start to mount. Given the difference between a quality pitcher like Porcello and the alternatives if they traded him away, the Tigers best bet may be to just use Porcello in relief until the need arises.

Chris Capuano, LHP, Los Angeles

It has to be a little weird for Capuano to come to camp without a guaranteed rotation spot, given that he is coming off one of the best seasons of his career and stayed healthy for the entire 2012 season. Yet, after the Dodgers splurged on Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu after picking up Josh Beckett last August, there might not be room for him in the opening day rotation, especially if Chad Billingsley proves to be healthy during spring training.

But, despite the fact that Capuano might not be promised a rotation spot on opening day, the Dodgers shouldn’t be in any hurry to reduce their rotation depth. Money is clearly not a problem for the organization, so they don’t need to ship him out to save the $6 million he’s due in 2013, and while they have a large quantity of starters behind Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, they don’t necessarily have a ton of quality. Beckett wasn’t particularly good for either the Red Sox or Dodgers last year, which is why Boston gave him to Los Angeles in the first place. Aaron Harang’s 3.61 ERA from last year looks like a total mirage when compared to his 4.14 FIP and 4.95 xFIP. Ryu is a total wild card. Even if all three are completely healthy, odds are pretty good that one of them just doesn’t pitch very well in 2013.

From a performance perspective, it’s not entirely crazy to think that Capuano could be the Dodgers third or fourth best pitcher next year, even if he begins the year in the bullpen. Having him around not only gives them depth in case of an injury, but could very well allow them to upgrade on a weak rotation spot in season.

Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay

The Rays have been notorious about hoarding their pitching depth, and even after trading James Shields to Kansas City, they still have too many good arms to fit everyone into their opening day rotation. Right now, the hard-throwing right-hander is on the outside looking in, but Archer showed glimpses of dominance in his debut last year, and provides the Rays with another tantalizing option for the summer if one of their young arms goes down.

Don’t pay too much attention to his 4.60 ERA; it’s the 29.5% strikeout rate from his 29 big league innings that should be the real eye opener. For reference, Max Scherzer led all qualified MLB starters in K% during 2012, with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Archer shouldn’t be expected to keep that performance up over a full season worth of starts, but his dominant stuff should allow him to be an excellent fill-in whenever Tampa Bay needs to give one of their young arms a break.

The Rays have always put a lot of value in having more than five good starters, and they’re still rich in young pitching even after trading James Shields. Not having to lean on a mediocre Triple-A veteran or overpay for a rent-a-pitcher at the deadline has been one of the keys to the team’s sustained success, and they appear set to continue to take advantage of that strength.

Every year, there are dozens (if not hundreds) of articles, blog posts, magazines and more offering up auction values for fantasy baseball. And almost all of these fit a fairly specific set of rules – rosters in the mid-20’s, budgets in the mid-$200’s, traditional 5×5 stats. ottoneu, however, lives in a different universe and plays by its own rules. We scoff at your tiny rosters and insignificant budgets! We do not settle for your traditional 5×5 roto scoring!*

So often, I am asked how to translate a $31 Justin Verlander or a $37 Miguel Cabrera (their actual values in 2012, according to the system devised by Zach Sanders) into a fair price in ottoneu. This is an issue I struggle with every season, particularly as we start talking about the second or third seasons of a league where more than half the dollars and roster spots are often taken up before the auction.

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Keith Law’s list of the best players in Major League Baseball under the age of 25 is exceptional for several reasons, but perhaps the most notable is that the cream of the crop aren’t even anywhere close to the age limit. In fact, when you look at what Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jason Heyward did in 2012 — with Stanton and Heyward being the veterans at age 22 — it becomes clear that we just saw a season for the history books.

Much has been written about Trout and Harper, who both had all-time great seasons for their age bracket, but baseball has seen two phenomenal rookie hitters come up together before. Baseball has not, however, seen four players this young who were this good in the same season in nearly 50 years. Trout, Harper, Stanton, and Heyward combined for a truly remarkable 27.3 WAR in 2012 – for reference, here are the best combined WAR totals for four position players, all 22 or younger, in baseball history:

1964: Dick Allen, Jim Fregosi, Boog Powell, and Bill Freehan: 29.8 WAR
2012: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Hewyard: 27.3 WAR
1972: Cesar Cedeno, Chris Speier, Ted Simmons, Greg Luzinski: 25.0 WAR
1939: Ted Williams, Buddy Lewis, Ken Keltner, Charlie Keller: 25.0 WAR
1970: Johnny Bench, Bernie Carbo, Aurelio Rodriguez, Richie Hebner: 24.8 WAR
1956: Hank Aaron, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Bill White: 24.2 WAR

Only the 1964 group bested last year’s quartet, and it’s worth noting that all four players in that season were the maximum age of 22. Given that Trout and Harper weren’t even of legal drinking age at the time, you might even give a slight edge to the modern day group, even though Allen and company posted a slightly higher WAR. And, of course, there’s some pretty illustrious company looking up at last year’s phenoms, including several inner circle Hall of Famers. Any time you end up on the same list as Ted Williams, Johnny Bench, and Hank Aaron, you’re doing alright for yourself.

Of course, there are some less famous names on the list that serve as a reminder that some players just peak early, for various reasons. Carbo, for instance, had one of the great rookie seasons in baseball history in 1970, hitting .310/.454/.551 as a 22-year-old. The next year, he hit .219/.338/.339, and he started 1972 so poorly that he was traded to the Cardinals. He never came close to repeating his early success, and was out of baseball by 1980.

But, for the most part, being great in the big leagues an early age is a sign of rare talent. Even the guys who didn’t end up enshrined in Cooperstown generally had pretty terrific careers, and were among the best players of their time. There aren’t too many guys who fluke their way into terrific seasons when most players their age are still riding the buses in the minor leagues.

Trout, Harper, Stanton, and Heyward are all special talents. In most other years, they’d be easy picks for the best under-25 player in the sport. Right now, though, the sport is experiencing a renaissance of absurdly good players at a young age. When you’re looking through the list, keep in mind that this is not an ordinary class of players. We don’t usually have this kind of greatness on display at an early age. Enjoy it, because you probably won’t ever see four outfielders this good come up together again.

When the Angels became The Mystery Team and signed Josh Hamilton last month, the idea of their new batting order became the thing of legends. Hamilton could slide in behind Albert Pujols, who was already hitting behind Mike Trout, and even guys like Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar, are better than average hitters for their positions. The Angels line-up is going to be very good, and people have even begun to whisper about the team potentially scoring 1,000 runs, a feat which hasn’t been accomplished since the Indians did it back in 1999. But here’s the dirty little secret about the Angels offense; the 2013 version may very well be worse than the 2012 version.

How does a team add Josh Hamilton and get worse offensively? Well, it’s not as far fetched as it might sound on the surface. There are essentially three big factors that could cause the Angels to score fewer runs than they did last year.

1. Hamilton is not actually going to be a big upgrade over what Torii Hunter did in 2012.

If you just focus on home runs — Hamilton hit 43, Hunter hit 16 — this might seem ridiculous. But there’s more to life than home runs, and what Hunter lacked in power, he made up for in singles. Despite having 52 fewer plate appearances, Hunter out-singled Hamilton 126 to 84, and while singles might not be as flashy as home runs, they are useful run scoring tools in their own right. Because of all those base hits, Hunter posted a higher on base percentage than Hamilton — .365 to .354 — and he did it while playing half his games in Anaheim, not Texas.

This is one of the scenarios where park factors actually are a really big deal. During his time with the Rangers, Hamilton had a .406 wOBA at home and just a .365 wOBA on the road. The Ballpark in Arlington is one of the very best places in all of baseball to hit, especially in the summer when the temperature and the humidity rise. While we can’t just expect Hamilton to turn into what he has been on the road now that he’s leaving the friendly confines of Texas, his overall offensive numbers will come down. That’s why we look at park adjusted numbers like wRC+, which account for different offensive environments and put everyone on a level playing field.

Last year, Hunter posted a 130 wRC+, meaning that he hit 30% better than a league average hitter would be expected to while playing half his games in Anaheim. Josh Hamilton’s career wRC+? 135. Last year, he posted a 140 wRC+, but he’s also getting older, and age related decline could easily push Hamilton’s overall performance down to a similar level to what Hunter produced for the Angels last year.

2. The 2012 Angels were remarkably healthy and a little lucky.

The Angels didn’t have to deal with too many injuries last year, and the ones that did arise generally came on the mound. Among the regular position players, only Chris Iannetta and Erick Aybar hit the DL in 2012, and Aybar was only disabled from July 22nd to August 8th. Torii Hunter spent two weeks away from the team dealing with a personal issue, but even counting that, the rest of the hitters stayed active the entire season. The Angels had eight players garner at least 500 plate appearances last year, and that’s something that simply isn’t likely to be repeated again in 2013.

They also had some good fortune when it comes to how often their balls in play went for base hits. They led the AL with a .311 team BABIP, nearly 20 points higher than the league average last year. Some of that is due to having a line-up of speedy players, but even adjusting for the team’s speed, the Angels can’t count on getting the same amount of hits in 2012 as they did in 2013. The main regression candidate — now that Hunter has been replaced, at least — is Mike Trout, who posted a .383 BABIP last season. Even with Trout’s speed, that’s a number that simply can’t be sustained.

Over the last three years, 46 AL hitters have received 1,500 or more plate appearances; 45 of them have posted a BABIP below .350, with Austin Jackson (.370) as the lone exception. Even if you look at elite speed guys, you see that they can’t sustain BABIPs much over .350 for any length of time. Ichiro, for his career, has a .347 BABIP. Michael Bourn is at .343. Carl Crawford is at .328. Trout’s BABIP is going to come down. The only question is how far.

3. They’re also replacing Kendrys Morales with Peter Bourjos.

I like Peter Bourjos more than most, and I think he’s a much better hitter than he showed in limited duty in 2012. But, no matter how bullish you might be on his overall value, there’s no question that replacing Morales’ bat with Bourjos’ is a massive downgrade. Morales posted a 118 wRC+ last year, while Bourjos’ career mark is just 95, making him a slightly below average hitter during his time in the big leagues. Given his high strikeout rate and low power output, being an average hitter is probably his ceiling, as the Angels are essentially hoping he can turn into the west coast version of Michael Bourn, making up for the decent bat with elite defense in the outfield.

Swapping out Morales for Bourjos is probably a bigger offensive downgrade than swapping Hunter for Hamilton is an upgrade. While most of the focus is understandably on the addition of Hamilton, we must remember that the Angels made room for Hamilton by jettisoning Morales. When projecting their offense in 2013, we can’t simply pretend that they’re going to have all their good hitters back and simply added another great hitter to the mix. That’s not a reflection of what has actually happened this winter.

When you add up all the expected gains — likely some improvement from Albert Pujols, perhaps better health from Chris Iannetta, the addition of Josh Hamilton — there are enough positives to expect the Angels to still a have a very good offense in 2013, even with the issues listed above. But they had a very good offense last year — their team wRC+ of 112 was second best in baseball — and improving significantly on that performance is going to be a tall order. Adding Hamilton should allow them to remain one of the best offensive clubs in baseball, but don’t get too carried away with what putting him in right field will do to their offense. If the Angels match their offensive performance from 2012, they’ll be doing well. Expecting them to take a huge step forward is probably unrealistic.

The Rangers haven’t had a great off-season so far. After attempting (and failing) to land both Zack Greinke and Justin Upton, the team also saw Josh Hamilton defect to the division rival Angels, while Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, and Koji Uehara all went to Boston. The only free agent they’ve signed is Joakim Soria, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and might not be ready for the start of the 2013 season. The Rangers are going to have quite a different look next year.

Even the players who are sticking around are likely to experience some changes, as super prospect Jurickson Profar is expected to take a bigger role in 2013, potentially even moving into an everyday job. While Elvis Andrus is blocking his path at shortstop, Profar could play a decent amount of second base, which might force the Rangers to relocate incumbent starter Ian Kinsler to another spot on the diamond.

The question facing the Rangers is where that spot should be. Besides a two inning stint at third base — where the team is more than pleased with Adrian Beltre — Kinsler has spent his entire big league career at second base. With the departures of Hamilton and Napoli, the team has openings in the outfield and at DH, but they’ve also talked about moving Kinsler to first base, a position where they didn’t get a lot of production last year. You don’t see many second baseman shift over to first base, second baseman who are listed at 6’0, but Kinsler might actually be a better fit there than one would think just based on his height.

While first base is generally thought of as a power position, and second baseman aren’t generally known for their power, Kinsler actually hits more like a first baseman than a second baseman. For his career, he has an Isolated Slugging (Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average, which gives you a measure of how much power a player hit for) of .188. For comparison, Adrian Gonzalez has an ISO of .195 over the last three years. Kinsler isn’t known as a prodigious home run guy, but like Gonzalez, he racks up a copious amount of doubles, which are pretty effective in driving in runs themselves.

For instance, compare Kinsler’s overall offensive performance to Adam LaRoche, who the Rangers have been linked to at various times this winter. Here are their numbers since 2010:

Kinsler: .263/.350/.441, 111 wRC+
LaRoche: .255/.327/.462, 109 wRC+

No one thinks of LaRoche as an underpowered hitter for the position, and Kinsler’s offensive track record is even stronger. Any team willing to give LaRoche a first base job should also be willing to consider Kinsler a first baseman, as there’s not a lot of evidence that LaRoche is a significantly better hitter overall.

And the Rangers wouldn’t be covering totally new ground here either. There is precedent for teams moving high contact, gap power middle infielders to first base and having it pay off in a significant way. The Brewers converted high contact, middling power second baseman Paul Molitor into a first baseman at age 34, and he went on to average +4 WAR per season for the next four years. Like Kinsler, Molitor was a guy who focused more on not striking out than hitting the ball over the wall, but he was still a highly productive 1B/DH, hitting better in his thirties than he did in his twenties, partially due to the improved health from not having to play a demanding position on the field.

Molitor, of course, is not the only low-strikeout, lots-of-doubles player who has succeeded as a high quality first baseman. John Olerud slugged .465 for his career, averaging 17 home runs per full season, and still produced +60 WAR during a brilliant career. Mark Grace slugged just .442 and never hit more than 17 home runs in a season, but he was still a consistently above average player until age 37. Don Mattingly, Will Clark, John Kruk, and Sean Casey… there’s a long list of guys who were very good first baseman despite not being a prototypical slugger.

The thing most of these guys had in common, of course, was excellent defense at first base. Mattingly won nine gold gloves in a ten year span. Grace won four. Olerud won three. Often times, the first baseman who don’t hit for power make up for the lack of home runs by saving runs in the field, as their more slender frames allow them to be far more agile at the position than the big lumbering sluggers who just try to not embarrass themselves between at-bats.

While Kinsler would have to adjust to learning a new position, he has the quickness and range to develop into that kind of quality defensive first baseman. While Kinsler was a bit of a defensive problem at second base coming up (-22 UZR in his first three seasons), his hard work has helped him become an above average defender at second base in recent years (+17 UZR in his last three seasons). And, of course, the pool of players which Kinsler would be measured against at first base is not as impressive as the group at second, so he’d likely grade out as an average or better defender at first base even while learning how to make the transition. With more experience, Kinsler could easily become one of the best defenders at the position in the sport.

Kinsler might not look like a first baseman, but he hits for more power than you might think, and there’s a strong history of smaller, skinnier players being highly valuable players at first base by making a lot of contact, hitting a bunch of doubles, and playing great defense at the position. Kinsler already had the contact and doubles skillset, and his quickness should allow him to develop into a good defensive player at first as well.

With Profar forcing his way onto the roster, the Rangers need a spot for Kinsler, and they have an opening at first base. The move prolonged Paul Molitor’s career, and helped give his offense a boost as well. Don’t be surprised if Kinsler ends up as a productive first baseman before too long, even if he’s not hitting 30 home runs every year.

James Shields is not your typical #1 starter. He was a 16th round draft pick by the Rays back in 2000, then never rated as a top prospect as he climbed through the farm system. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he doesn’t throw it that often, instead mostly relying on his cutter, curve, and change-up. The change-up is excellent, but the rest of his repertoire is somewhat unexciting. Until he started racking up 200 inning seasons in the big leagues, scouts were never that impressed with what Shields had to offer.

Through years of excellent performances, he has changed a lot of minds, and has proven that his package of skills can get big league hitters out on a regular basis. Today, we’ll look at three pitchers who have similar skills, and might be able to follow Shields’ lead by developing into an unexpected ace.

Jon Niese, New York Mets

Besides throwing with his left-hand, there are a lot of similarities between Niese and a young James Shields. His average fastball velocity sits at around 90 MPH, and to balance it out, he leans heavily on his cut fastball, while also working in his curve and change-up. And, like with Shields early in his career, the only thing keeping him from being a frontline starting pitcher is a problem with allowing home runs. From 2010 to 2012, 11.7% of Niese’s fly balls have left the yard; of the 24 NL starters who have thrown 500 or more innings over the last three years, only Bronson Arroyo has a higher HR/FB rate, and he pitches in a much more hitter friendly ballpark.

In K/BB ratio, Niese actually grades out ahead of guys like Anibal Sanchez and Johnny Cueto, but his propensity for giving up the long ball has kept his results from matching what they’ve put up. If he can get his home run rate down — and HR/FB rate is far less predictive than things like walk rate or strikeout rate – than Niese could be in for a breakout season sooner than later.

Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves

Unlike Shields, Minor has been on scouts radar for a while; he was the #7 overall pick in the 2009 draft, and Keith Law rated him as the #61 prospect in baseball before the 2011 season. However, Minor was highly thought of for his polish and proximity to the majors, not so much his upside as a frontline starter. After a miserable start to the 2012 season, however, Minor showed some flashes of developing into that kind of pitcher in the second half.

In the first three months of 2012, Minor issued 33 walks against 72 strikeouts, a mediocre total for an extreme fly ball pitcher who also gave up 18 home runs. The total led to a 6.19 ERA, and questions over whether Minor was capable of being anything more than a back-end starter. However, in the second half of the year, Minor started working in his slider a bit more often, and perhaps more importantly, he started working on the outer half of the strike zone with more frequency (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/28975/a-closer-look-at-mike-minors-improvement). The shift in results was dramatic – he allowed just eight home runs and posted a 73/18 K/BB ratio in the final three months of the season, and his ERA dropped to 2.21 over that stretch. His overall season numbers don’t look very good, but if Minor can continue to work the outer half of the plate and keep the ball in the yard, he’s got a chance to turn into a very good starting pitcher.

Tommy Milone, Oakland Athletics

Like Shields, Milone was a bit of an after thought as a prospect, not getting selected until the 10th round of the 2008 draft, then being overlooked even as he dominated hitters in the minor leagues. When he was included in the Gio Gonzalez trade last winter, he was considered something of a throw-in; the other three prospects in the deal were labeled as the real return for Oakland. Meanwhile, Milone quietly took his 88 MPH fastball to the Major Leagues and turned in an excellent rookie season, baffling hitters with an array of change-ups and racking up nearly four strikeouts for every walk he issued in 2012. He has the least impressive fastball of any pitcher on this list, but he also has the best change-up, which is the pitch that has helped Shields turn into a legitimate frontline starting pitcher.

Milone also has one other thing working in his favor – his home ballpark. A large part of Shields’ success came from pitching in a home run depressing park in Tampa Bay, as he allowed just 0.74 HR/9 at home compared to 1.28 HR/9 on the road. Milone was even more extreme in his home/road splits last year, giving up just 0.55 HR/9 in Oakland compared to an astonishing 1.77 HR/9 when he left the friendly confines. Those numbers will come closer together as the samples get larger, but playing in a big ballpark is going to be a significant benefit to Milone, and he may be able to ride the stadium’s park effects to better numbers than were ever imagined for a guy with his stuff.

The Phillies are reportedly working hard to acquire Michael Young from the Texas Rangers to fill their hole at third base, and because of the Rangers surplus of talent around the infield, they’re willing to pick up a large part of his salary in order to make the trade happen. Beyond just the logjam, however, they’re willing to move Young because he was the least productive player in baseball in 2012, posting -1.4 WAR in 651 plate appearances.

Of course, his one down year came after a nine year stretch as one of the game’s most consistent players, as he put up a WAR of between +2.5 and +4.5 each season from 2003 to 2011. The Phillies seem to be betting on Young’s track record of success, understanding that one bad season doesn’t mean a player is necessarily finished. In fact, the recent track record of players who had similarly lousy seasons to Young in their mid-30s show that there’s some real chance for a rebound in 2013.

From 2002 to 2011, 24 Major League players got at least 400 plate appearances and posted a negative WAR in a season in which they were between 34 and 36 years old. Seven of those 24 — 29% — actually rebounded to be above average players in the following season.

Carlos Lee (2011): +3.2 WAR

Lee’s WAR is inflated by an outlier defensive season that included 10 outfield assists, but even his offense rebounded to where it was prior to his collapse the year before, posting a 115 wRC+ in 2011 than was essentially equal to his 2009 mark. Even without the positive defensive rating, Lee was still a useful hitter, and shows that offensive downtowns are reversible.

Ken Griffey Jr (2007): +3.1 WAR

Unlike most of the others, Griffey actually hit pretty well during his miserable season, but brutal defense in center field nuked his value. His defense was still atrocious in his rebound season, but his offense jumped back to elite levels, as he increased his wRC+ from 118 to 142, his best mark since his final season in Seattle.

Ray Durham (2008): +2.9 WAR

Durham’s season might be the most encouraging to Young, in that he was also a high contact, gap power infielder who saw his offensive skills seemingly disappear over night. At age 34, Durham was excellent, posting a 125 wRC+ by hitting a career high 26 home runs. At age 35, Durham was horrible, as his wRC+ fell to 62. Then, at age 36, he was terrific again, posting a 118 wRC+. Durham just had a one year hiatus from being a good hitter, then went right back to previously established norms.

Vinny Castilla (2003): +2.9 WAR

Like Durham and Lee, Castilla’s offense disappeared for one year, then reverted right back to where it was prior to his miserable season. Offensively, Castilla was the worst player on this list, as he posted a wRC+ of 58, a total that looks like a slump even for Rey Ordonez. However, his 2003 wRC+ of 96 was better than the one he posted in 2001, and then he got even better (105 wRC+, +3.3 WAR) than the next year.

J.T. Snow (2003): +2.7 WAR

Snow was actually pretty lousy for a two year stretch at age 33/34 (95 wRC+ combined), then bounced back in a huge way (119 wRC+) at age 35 and had the best season of his career (152 wRC+) at age 36. Despite the negative connotation of a late career offensive surge from a player in San Francisco, Snow’s improvement was mostly about eliminating strikeouts in favor of more singles. He only hit eight home runs in his rebound season, but the improved contact skills allowed him to be a well above average hitter.

Todd Helton (2011): +2.4 WAR

Young’s decline in 2012 was driven by a significant drop in power, and Helton’s 2011 season should give him some hope that it has a chance to return. After racking up just 27 extra base hits while playing half of his games in Colorado, Helton had 41 in his rebound season, and his wRC+ went from 88 to 121. So, take heart, Phillies fans – power does occasionally come back.

Scott Hatteberg (2005): +2.4 WAR

With Hatteberg, it wasn’t just one thing. Every part of his game regressed in 2004, with his walk rate falling, his strikeout rate going up, and his power disappearing all at the same time. Then, in 2005, it all reversed right back to prior levels, with Hatteberg resuming his career as an above average hitter. In fact, his age 36 and 37 seasons were the two best of his career by wRC+.

Of course, these seven represent slightly less than one third of the total pool of players who were below replacement level in their mid-30s as full-time players. Five of the 24 didn’t even play the following season, and nine others were useless again in the following campaign. The average WAR of the 19 who stuck around for a followup season was +1.1 WAR, so Young shouldn’t be seen as any kind of sure thing for the Phillies. But, at the same time, history shows that there is some potential for Young to rebound and be a productive player in 2013. That he had one bad year does not mean that he is definitively done as a productive player.

Bert Blyleven is in the Hall of Fame because he was a great pitcher who belongs in Cooperstown, but also because he was the poster-child for the analytically inclined baseball community for the better part of a decade. Led by a blogger named Rich Lederer, Blyleven’s supporters inundated writers with articles and stories supporting Blyleveln’s election, and on his 14th chance, he finally crossed the 75% mark needed for enshrinement.

With Blyleven in, now the groundswell of support is rising behind Tim Raines, an underappreciated star of his era whose willingness to draw a walk has kept him out of the Hall because he didn’t get to 3,000 hits. Raines’ skillset has always been undervalued, and even to this day, players who do what Raines did don’t get as much credit for their performances as bulky sluggers who drive in runs. The recent AL MVP race made it clear that many still prefer the RBI guy to the table setter.

So, given what we know about what types of players make it into the Hall of Fame, here are four active players who are on track to earn a place in Cooperstown one day, but who have flown under the radar during their careers and will probably require a long lobbying effort to get them elected once their careers are over.

Adrian Beltre

Third baseman are woefully underrepresented as a group in the Hall, and Brooks Robinson is basically the only third baseman who got inducted based on his defense. While elite defenders at other positions have been recognized, the great defensive third baseman has never gotten much recognition. Unless voters have an epiphany about the value of defense at the hot corner, Beltre’s going to be fighting an uphill battle. His career .280/.331/.476 line translates into a 111 wRC+, meaning he’s been 11 percent better than an average hitter based on the league norms and his home ballparks during his career. For comparison, that puts him in a tie with Graig Nettles, who never received more than 8.3% of the vote and fell off the ballot after just four years. Beltre’s offensive resume is simply not at the level of other Hall of Fame third baseman.

But, anyone who has watched Beltre play for any length of time realizes that there’s a lot more to his game than what he does in the batter’s box. He’s an amazing defender at third base, and has played Gold Glove defense at the position for nearly 18,000 innings. For his career, Ultimate Zone Rating estimates that he’s saved 147 runs more than an average defensive third baseman. When you combine that level of defensive greatness with an above average bat, you get a pretty terrific player. When Beltre hits like he has in recent years, he’s one of the best players in the sport.

His career inconsistencies and the fact that so much of his value is tied up in his defense will hurt him, but he’s already accumulated +62.5 WAR through age 33. Even if he’s just an average player for the next four years, he’ll crack the +70 WAR barrier, and an overwhelming majority of the players with +70 or more WAR have a plaque in Cooperstown. As long as he doesn’t fall off a cliff in the next few years, Beltre will deserve one too.

Matt Holliday

The case for Holliday is essentially the exact opposite as the case for Beltre. Instead of being about defense and longevity, Holliday’s case is about recognizing a premium hitter who has had one of the best seven year runs in baseball history. Since 2006, Holliday has posted a wRC+ of 138 or higher in every single season, and his 145 cumulative wRC+ over that span ranks as the sixth highest mark in baseball during that stretch — the only guys ahead of him are Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Manny Ramirez.

Unfortunately for Holliday, his offense comes from hitting for a high average and racking up a lot of doubles, so he doesn’t have the sexy home run totals that voters tend to look for in a guy who is up for election based on his offensive production. He’s only hit 30 home runs in a season on two occasions, and both of those years came in Colorado. With just 229 career home runs, Holliday’s not going to get close to any of the big slugger milestones, but looking at his overall value as a hitter, his ability to win games becomes clearer.

Holliday has been a beast of a hitter for the better part of the last decade, and yet, he’s continually flown under the radar. He’s only finished in the top 10 in MVP voting once — back in 2007, when he finished second. It’s probably too late for him to run off a series of multiple monster seasons to get the voters attention, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down in recent years, and a few more seasons at his established level should be enough to get him serious Hall of Fame consideration. Because he got a later start on his career, he’s going to need to age gracefully to have a strong case, but Holliday’s already had a Hall of Famer’s peak. Now he just needs to stick around long enough to add enough counting stats so people to remember how good he actually was.

Matt Cain

The perfect game and postseason track record have helped put Cain on the map, but in many of the milestone categories that voters tend to look at, he comes up short. He’s never finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting. He’s only made three All-Star teams. And, perhaps most problematic, he has a career record of just 85-78. Even if he stays healthy and continues to pitch well, averaging 15 wins per year for the next decade, he’s still going to finish with fewer than 250 wins, and the voting electorate continues to hang on to pitcher wins as a useful measure of pitcher value. And yet, Cain’s career ERA- of 80 — meaning he’s prevented runs at 20 percent better than league average — puts him in a tie with CC Sabathia and ahead of Hall of Famers like Juan Marichal and Bob Feller. If Cain keeps pitching the way he has thus far, he’ll deserve a spot in Cooperstown, but he’ll need voters to abandon pitcher wins in order to see his true value.

Jose Reyes

If Reyes falls short of 3,000 hits — he has 1,484, and turns 30 next summer, so it will depend almost entirely on how well his hamstrings hold up — he may still be a deserving inductee, but singles hitters who don’t reach that milestone have traditionally not done particularly well in the voting. However, Reyes is a singles hitting shortstop who has already had four elite seasons, and if he ages like Kenny Lofton, he could remain a productive player for the next decade and add enough longevity to build a solid Hall of Fame case. If he keeps hitting into his mid-to-late 30s, his career will start to resemble Alan Trammell’s – another undervalued shortstop who the analytical community is agitating for.

During the off-season, free agents get most of the attention. They’re the ones that we know are available, and if they’ve made it this far into the winter without re-signing with their old teams, they’re the ones probably looking for a change of address. However, free agents aren’t the only players that teams can acquire without giving up talent in order to get them.

Every year, there are a group of players who change teams because their prior organization didn’t want to give them the raise they were due in arbitration. They’re usually coming off poor seasons but are due significant raises anyway, as arbitration rewards players heavily for amount of playing time, even if they didn’t earn that playing time on the field. Last year, the poster boy for this situation was Angel Pagan, whom the Mets sent to San Francisco in exchange for Andres Torres in a change-of-scenery trade. Pagan was brutal in 2011 and was set to earn nearly $5 million in arbitration, so the Mets shipped him west rather than pay for the hope he would bounce back. He did bounce back, of course, and the Giants found themselves quality center fielder at a marginal cost.

Which players have the chance of being 2013’s Angel Pagan? Here are three candidates.

Rick Porcello, RHP, Detroit Tigers

Because the Tigers broke Porcello into the big leagues before he was legally allowed to drink, it’s easy to forget that this four year veteran doesn’t turn 24 until two days after Christmas. He’s never lived up to the notoriety he got as a prospect, but slowly but surely, Porcello’s markers have been trending in the right direction. He set career highs in both strikeout rate and ground ball rate in 2012, but even more encouragingly, his velocity jumped nearly two miles-per-hour, and he was regularly topping out at 95 for the first time as a Major Leaguer. The improvement was masked by mediocre results, but those were primarily caused by a .344 batting average on balls in play, and considering how dreadful the Tigers defense was, that’s a number that is unlikely to be repeated with any other set of teammates.

Because he qualified for “Super Two” status, he’s already on his second trip through arbitration, and he’ll get a raise from the $3.1 million he made last year, probably landing somewhere close to $5 million for the upcoming season. The Tigers have already publicly stated that they’re trying to re-sign Anibal Sanchez, and they’d have Drew Smyly to fill the #5 spot in the rotation if they retain Sanchez or replace him with another veteran hurler. By moving Porcello and his $5 million pricetag, they could free up some money to throw at Sanchez, and give Porcello a second chance in front of a defense that is a little more supportive of pitch-to-contact strike-throwers. Without a legitimate out-pitch, he’s unlikely to develop into an ace, but Porcello’s got a chance to settle in as a quality mid-rotation starter, especially if his velocity keeps trending upwards.

Drew Stubbs, CF, Cincinnati Reds

As a first time arbitration eligible player, Stubbs isn’t likely to be available because the Reds can’t afford to give him the $3 million or so he’ll likely be awarded. Instead, he’s likely to be available because the Reds simply want a better center fielder. He still strikes out far too often for a guy without big time power, and his .277 on base percentage last year has the Reds looking for a new leadoff hitter. However, Stubbs is a quality defensive center fielder and his core stats — walk rate, strikeout rate, and isolated power — were all basically identical to his 2011 marks, when Stubbs was a productive player for the Reds.

If he bounces back even a little bit offensively, he could be a league average player, and at 28-years-old, he still has a bit of upside left. While there are a lot of free agent center fielders available, a team looking for a lower cost option could do a lot worse than Stubbs, who offers enough power, speed, and defense to be useful for any team that can get past his problems making contact. The strikeouts aren’t going away, but a flawed player is not a useless player, and getting Stubbs out of Cincinnati might just be the second chance he needs.

Ryan Roberts, 3B, Tampa Bay

Roberts fell out of favor in Arizona quickly after a breakthrough 2011 season, and with Evan Longoria hobbled, the Rays picked Roberts up to help provide infield depth for the stretch run. For most teams, keeping a $3 million utility infielder around wouldn’t be a problem, but the Rays are on a notoriously tight budget and already have a similar, younger player on the roster in Sean Rodriguez. Paying two reserves arbitration salaries is a luxury that Tampa Bay might not be able to afford, and parting with Roberts would free up more cash to pursue offensive upgrades than dealing Rodriguez.

While a comparison to Pagan likely overstates his potential, he’s a similar style of player in that he gets value from being decent at a wide range of things rather than having any one standout skill. He makes decent contact, has some power, draws a few walks, plays a good third base, and has enough versatility to also cover second base or the outfield. Even if he doesn’t have another 2011 season in him, he’s got enough skills to be a decent stopgap third baseman, and given the slim pickings available on the free agent market, picking up Roberts and putting off a long term solution for another year isn’t a terrible option.