Before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament that required Tommy John Surgery, Stephen Strasburg was pitching at a level that few men have been able to match. Now nearly 19 months removed from surgery, the Nationals are hopeful that their ace will be able to match his previous dominance and establish himself as one of the National League’s best starting pitchers.

Is that a realistic goal for a pitcher in his first season after returning from elbow surgery? To examine that question, we will look at six other starting pitchers who are Tommy John survivors, and we will measure their performance in year one after surgery against their performances in the season preceding the year in which they went on the DL and their second year after coming back from injury.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Washington Nationals have already decided that Bryce Harper will begin the season in the minors, as they optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse on Sunday. However, they have another critical decision to make regarding their 19-year-old phenom, and how they decide to proceed will have a significant impact on the amount of money they’ll be paying him over the next seven years.

By keeping Harper in the minors for the entire month of April, the Nationals will ensure that he will fall short of the necessary 172 days of service required for one full year of service, as defined by the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Having Harper begin 2012 in the minors will allow the team to retain his rights for the 2018 season – had he began the year in the Majors and accrued six full seasons of service time by the end of the 2017 season, he would have been eligible for free agency after his age 24 season. Now, the Nationals will also own the rights to his age 25 season.

However, the timing of his debut will go a long way in determining his salaries from 2015 through 2018. If Harper is called up before July 1st, he may be classified as a “Super Two” at the conclusion of 2014 – the top 22 percent of players with 2+ years of service (but less than the full three needed to qualify for arbitration) are upgraded to early-entry arbitration. Instead of going through the process three times, they are granted four arbitration hearings, and can begin to escalate their salaries a year earlier than players with two years of service time who do not qualify as Super Twos.

The total cost differences can add up very quickly, and beyond just allowing Super Twos to receive a substantial paycheck a year earlier, the system of annual raises creates a compounding effect where these benefit from their status even after the initial trip through arbitration. For example, here are Hunter Pence’s annual salaries during the first six years of his career:

2007 – $380,000
2008 – $396,000
2009 – $439,000
2010 – $3,500,000 (Super Two eligible)
2011 – $6,900,000
2012 – $10,400,000

Total: $22,015,000

Pence was called up to the Majors on April 28, 2007, so he’s just a bit short of having five full years of service. However, because he was a Super Two, he’s already had three shots at arbitration, and his salaries have risen much faster than if he had been called up later in the season.

To see the magnitude of the difference, here is the same salary table for Jacoby Ellsbury, who was called up from the Majors on June 30, 2007, and did not qualify as a Super Two.

2007 – $380,000
2008 – $406,000
2009 – $449,500
2010 – $497,000
2011 – $2,400,000
2012 – $8,050,000

Total: $11,802,000

Since getting called up, Pence has made twice as much as Ellsbury, even though they’ve been similarly productive players when on the field. Ellsbury’s 2011 salary was held down a bit because he missed nearly all of the 2010 season due to injury, but you can see the effects of starting arbitration early in their 2012 salaries, as Ellsbury was still not able to earn a salary as large as Pence even coming off his monster 2011 season where he finished second in the AL MVP voting.

So, what does this effect mean for Harper? It’s impossible to know exactly what he’s going to be paid in future arbitration sessions considering that we don’t know exactly how well he’s going to perform, but we can make assumptions based on projections that have him ending up as one of the game’s best players by the time he would be Super Two eligible after the 2014 season.

Here are the breakdowns of expected salaries for both situations (his 2012-2015 salaries are based on the MLB deal he signed out of the draft – he can opt out of the 2015 salary if he’s arbitration eligible), based on Harper developing into a star by the end of the 2014 season, and adjusting for normal inflation through the arbitration process.

Called up May 1st, Super Two eligible:

2012 – $500,000
2013 – $750,000
2014 – $900,000
2015 – $7,000,000
2016 – $10,500,000
2017 – $15,750,000
2018 – $23,625,000

Total: $59,025,000

Called up July 1st, not Super Two eligible:

2012 – $500,000
2013 – $750,000
2014 – $900,000
2015 – $1,000,000
2016 – $9,000,000
2017 – $13,500,000
2018 – $20,250,000

Total: $45,900,000

Harper’s starting salary in arbitration is a bit higher in scenario two, because presumably his numbers in 2015 will be even better than they were the year before, but you can see the significant cumulative effects that going to arbitration after the 2014 season can have on his salaries going forward. Just by reaching arbitration early, the total difference over the next seven years is nearly $14 million.

That’s a pretty expensive cost for giving Harper two extra months in the Major Leagues this season. If they believe that he’s going to be a drastic upgrade over their current set of outfielders and could push them towards playoff contention, it’s probably still worth doing, but if Rick Ankiel is playing well, they should consider giving Harper a couple more months to hang out in Syracuse. The cost of bringing him up on May 1st compared to July 1st is substantial, and the Nationals should be sure that they’re getting enough reward to justify giving Harper an early bite at arbitration.

Last year, the Cleveland Indians starting pitchers gave up 540 runs – the fourth worst total in Major League Baseball. Their only notable rotation addition over the winter was Derek Lowe, who the Braves were desperate to get rid of after he posted a 5.05 ERA last year. And yet, despite retaining most members of a group that were part of the team’s failure last year, advanced projection systems suggest that the Indians could have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2012.

The fact that Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections like Justin Masterson (204 IP, 3.31 FIP) shouldn’t be much of a surprise, given that Masterson had a breakthrough season last year and doesn’t turn 27 for another 10 days. Masterson’s improvement of his command while maintaining his groundball and strikeout abilities make him one of the game’s best starting pitchers. For reference, Masterson’s projection ranks him as essentially the equal of CC Sabathia (3.30 FIP) and slightly ahead of Dan Haren (3.36 FIP), so while he may not be widely recognized as a legitimate front-end starter, ZIPS expects Masterson to remain one of the elite starters in the American League.

However, Masterson was terrific in 2011 and the Indians rotation still struggled, so the expected improvement has to come from the #2-#5 spots in the rotation. And, this is where ZIPS believes that Cleveland will see drastic improvement.

Ubaldo Jimenez wasn’t particularly great for the Indians after coming over in a mid-season trade that cost the team two of their top pitching prospects, but his strong track record in prior years and the fact that his rise in ERA was based mostly on a drop in strand rate – something that has been shown to have little predictive power – combine to create a projection for Jimenez (197 IP, 3.26 FIP) that is actually even better than Masterson’s. In fact, among American League starters, only Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and Jered Weaver are projected to post a better mark than Jimenez. Like Masterson, his combination of strikeouts and groundballs give him the chance to be a dominant front line starter, and while his reputation took a hit last year, he’s still just 28-years-old and has a long history of premium performances. Few teams in baseball have as strong a 1-2 punch as the Indians have in Masterson and Jimenez.

There’s a significant drop-off between those two and the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, but the three starters penciled in for the back of the rotation are all still projected to be useful starting pitchers. While Derek Lowe had his problems in Atlanta and didn’t come close to justifying the contract he was given back in 2009, his durability is still an asset, and his underlying performances have been better than the results would indicate. ZIPS projects a 4.01 FIP for Lowe, putting him in the company of guys like Trevor Cahill, John Danks, and Derek Holland. Even if he doesn’t perform quite that well – Lowe has generally posted ERAs a bit higher than his FIPs throughout his career – he should still provide value as an innings-eater who can keep the Indians in most games.

Behind Lowe, the final two spots are expected to be filled by some combination of Kevin Slowey, Josh Tomlin, and Zach McAlister. The projections for all three peg them as useful back end starters, and give the team some needed depth that can help bridge any gaps created by injuries. While many AL contenders have serious weaknesses in the #5 spot, ZIPS believes that the Indians have multiple good options for the final rotation spot, and that buffer can provide an alternative if a member of the opening day rotation ends up struggling.

While the Tigers are still the clear favorites for the AL Central title, the difference in expected performance from each team’s starters is not where their advantage lies. Below are the projected lines for each team’s top six starters, with the results weighted by expected innings pitched for each group:

CLE (Masterson, Jimenez, Lowe, Slowey, Tomlin, McAlister): 2.70 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.82 FIP

DET (Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello, Turner, Oliver): 2.81 BB/9, 6.75 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.85 FIP

The Tigers get a few more strikeouts, but the Indians starters are expected to issue fewer walks and give up fewer home runs, and the overall output for both groups is expected to be quite similar. While Detroit’s starters get more recognition and are coming off better 2011 seasons, ZIPS believes that Cleveland’s depth advantage will help the battle of rotations end in something akin to a draw.

The Tigers offense is still the clear cream of the crop in the division, and Cleveland may not have the bats to stay in contention all year long, but their rotation is stronger than they’re given credit for. If the Indians can find a way to score enough runs, their starting pitchers have the ability to help them contend for a playoff spot.

Stephen Drew is not the Diamondbacks best player – that would be Justin Upton. He’s not the best player at his own position, nor do his numbers (including a career .270/.330/.442 line) jump off the page at first glance. And yet, given the current state of Major League shortstops, Drew’s health might be as critical to the teams success as any other variable.

Drew is recovering from a fractured ankle, and his status for Opening Day is in serious doubt. More likely, he’ll continue to rehab once the season begins and join the team in early May. How quickly he’s able to get back to what he was before the injury could very well determine how successful the Diamondbacks will be in 2012, however.

That’s because a player’s value is directly related to how good he is compared to the alternative options a team can field, and indirectly, how much better he is than his peers at the same position on other teams. And right now, Major League shortstops are a barren wasteland of offensive talent.

There are essentially three guys in the sport who can play shortstop and be significant difference makers at the plate – Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez. The latter two are now teammates, so Ramirez has shifted off the position, even further diluting the pool of talent at shortstop around the game. Last year, Major League shortstops hit .263/.317/.380, and only the Rockies and Mets received an .800 OPS or better from their combination of shortstops. For comparison, seven teams got at least that level of production in 1999, and three teams got a .900 OPS or better from their shortstops.

Granted, 1999 was the zenith of offensive shortstops – Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, and Nomar Garciaparra all had MVP caliber seasons, and even Omar Vizquel had a monster year at the plate – but we’ve still seen a significant loss of offensive production from the position over the last 10 years. When evaluating Drew’s value, we have to account for the enormous black hole that the Diamondbacks have to put in the line-up when he’s not on the field.

Last year, Arizona gave 350 plate appearances to shortstops not named Stephen Drew, and those players combined to hit .246/.292/.328. Their .621 OPS was worse than Carlos Zambrano’s career mark at the plate. Zambrano’s a good hitting pitcher, but he’s still a pitcher, and the non-Drew shortstops provided less offensive value than he has during his big league career. And yet, rather than look for upgrades to help give the team a bit more punch at the plate when Drew isn’t able to play, Arizona rewarded both Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald with two year contract extensions. This isn’t so much a criticism of Kevin Towers as it is an example of just how thin the crop of available players at the position currently is – the bar is now so low that just being able to defend at an adequate level and having a pulse qualifies you for a multi-year deal.

This is why Drew offers such a significant value for the Diamondbacks, and why he’s such an advantage for the Diamondbacks if he’s healthy. Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections have Drew hitting almost exactly at his career numbers, and the .765 OPS he’s projected for is a better total than 25 teams got from their shortstops last year.

Over the last three years, only nine shortstops have posted a higher WAR than Drew, and eight of the nine have needed more plate appearances to beat his total. On a per plate appearance basis, only The Big Three significantly outperformed Drew since the beginning of the 2009 season. And, of course, Ramirez’s move to third means that it’s now really The Big Two.

Drew might not get the recognition of his more famous teammates, but when he’s on the field, he’s one of the best players in the game at his position. The drop-off when he’s out of the line-up is staggering, and he provides a significant advantage for the Diamondbacks when he’s at full health. If the D’Backs are going to repeat as NL West Champions, they’ll need Drew to get healthy in a hurry.

The Royals have an awful lot of young talent. Even after graduating top prospects Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Danny Duffy to the Majors last year, they still placed five players on Keith Law’s list of the 100 best prospects in baseball, and he rated their farm system as the fifth best in the game right now. Their oldest projected position player is Alex Gordon, who just turned 28-years-old on February 10th, and besides Bruce Chen, their entire pitching staff is a bunch of 20-somethings.

The Royals will almost certainly be one of the youngest teams in Major League Baseball this year, and with all the highly touted young talent they’ve developed internally over the last few seasons, comparisons to the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays are inevitable. However, a closer inspection of what we should actually expect from the Royals young talents this year suggests that this team just isn’t ready to win yet.

Read the rest of this entry »

Despite spring proclamations of hope and what could be possible, not every team has a serious chance of capturing the World Series title this year. For some clubs, the lack of talent on the field makes that an unrealistic goal for 2012. However, that doesn’t mean that they can’t have a successful season, especially if they set their sights on things that they can accomplish this year. So, let’s take a look at outcomes for nine expected non-contenders that would make 2012 a worthwhile campaign, even if it doesn’t end with a run at the playoffs.

Read the rest of this entry »

When it comes to spring training statistics, there are so many problems with the data – small samples, inferior competition, hilariously small ballparks – that the numbers generally are just not worth even looking at. In most cases, March numbers can simply be thrown away without a second thought.

However, there are a few instances where spring training performances might actually tell us something. Most famously, Jose Bautista finished the 2009 season with a surprising burst of power, and he carried over that surge into spring training in 2010. The continuation of his revamped approach and swing in spring training could have helped clue us in to the fact that Bautista had undergone a dramatic transformation.

That doesn’t mean you should start reading too much into every player’s results over the next few weeks, but there are a few players worth keeping an eye on as the exhibition games get underway.

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Tampa Bay

It’s a little weird to say that the 2011 Rookie of the Year had a performance that raised a lot of red flags, but after carving up minor league hitters left and right on his way to the big leagues, Hellickson’s strikeout rate took a nosedive in the Majors. It wasn’t even just a struggle adjusting to MLB hitters – his strikeout rate actually got worse as the season went along, ending the year with just a 2.94 K/9 in September.

However, Hellickson’s swinging strike rate of 9.7% – a measure that has shown to have some predictive power when it comes to forecasting future strikeout rate – was actually quite good, placing him among the likes of Max Scherzer, Ricky Romero, and Gio Gonzalez. Given that his minor league strikeout rates and his swinging strike rate both suggest that he should get more whiffs than he did in 2011, be on the lookout for an uptick in strikeout rate by Hellickson in spring training. As David Appelman showed back in 2008, there is some correlation between a spring training change in a pitcher’s K/9 and his regular season strikeout rate.

Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore

The prospect who inspired a list of Chuck Norris-style facts hasn’t exactly lived up to the billing to date, and the most disappointing part of his Major League performance so far has been his overall lack of power – a career .415 slugging percentage is not what the Orioles envisioned. However, there’s still reason to believe that Wieters has more thump than he’s shown, and he may have begun to tap into some of the natural loft in his swing as the 2011 season came to a close. After hitting just seven home runs in the first three months of the season, Wieters launched seven in September alone, and 24 of his 47 hits in the final two months of the season went for extra bases.

The fact that he was able to sustain a well above average contact rate while also driving the ball more frequently suggests that Wieters still has the skills to be a dominant offensive force, and the final two months of 2011 could be a harbinger of good things to come in 2012.

Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore

While Wieters ended the year on a high note, his battery mate did the exact opposite, giving up 17 runs in just eight innings in September, closing a miserable season in the worst way possible. Matusz’z problems have been tied to a loss of velocity – his fastball averaged 91.5 MPH during his rookie season of 2009, but was just 88.5 MPH last year – but he was getting pounded even as he got his fastball back over 90 at the end of the year.

Keeping an eye on his velocity in spring training will be important, but Matusz will also need to show that he can command the ball in the strike zone with regularity. He doesn’t have the power repertoire that will allow him to get away with poor location, so if he’s going to work his way back into Baltimore’s rotation, he’ll have to show he can hit his spots and throw strikes consistently. Keep an eye not only on the radar gun when Matusz takes the mound, but the percentage of pitches he throws for strikes – if he’s going to get back to what he was a few years ago, it’s going to come because he remembers how to get ahead of hitters once again.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City

When the Royals promoted Moustakas in June of last year, they did it to help show Royals fans that they had a bright offensive future, with Moustakas and fellow rookie Eric Hosmer forming a corner infield duo of impact power bats. However, Moustakas had just one extra base hit in his first month in the Major Leagues, and then didn’t hit a home run in either July or August. His isolated slugging marks during his first three months in the Majors were .053, .064, and .061 – marks that only look normal if you’re Juan Pierre or Luis Castillo.

However, Moustakas was a different beast in September, collecting a total of 11 extra base hits that included four home runs. His first three months in the Majors suggested he might need more time in Triple-A before being handed a full time big league job, but with the way he closed the season, Moustakas showed that the Royals hope wasn’t all misplaced. The Royals will likely want to see Moustakas driving the ball in March like he did to finish 2011, but more than just raw home run totals (which can be easily inflated in the Arizona air), keep an eye on the percentage of his March hits that go for extra bases. If he’s consistently getting the ball into the gaps, then there’s a decent chance that his late season power surge could carry over into 2012.

Brent Morel, 3B, Chicago

Morel’s story is a bit like Moustakas’, only far more extreme. His quality glovework has always been ahead of his offensive game, and he’s never profiled as much of a power threat in the minors, but his total lack of punch – he entered September with just two home runs on the season – was a real problem for the White Sox last year. Morel spent the first five months of the year just repeatedly beating the ball into the ground, but during the last month of the season, his results took a complete turn – he launched eight home runs in 103 plate appearances and posted a .329 ISO, the eighth best mark in baseball during September. For comparison, that put him right between Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Pena.

That wasn’t the only drastic change for Morel in the season’s final month – he also drew 15 walks after taking just seven free passes in April through August. One of the league’s least patient and least powerful hitters ended the season by performing like a middle-of-the-order slugger, taking pitches with regularity and driving the ball over the wall when he got ahead in the count. It was the most dramatic change of the season, and was completely out of character with what Morel had done previously in his career. Keep an eye not just on Morel’s spring training power, but also his willingness to take the free pass – the rise of both were connected in September, and if he’s still willing to let pitches go, he has a much better chance of sustaining his late season power boost.

What with the terribly conspicuous signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this offseason, it’s easy to forget one important thing about the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim): they’re saddled with what may be the most burdensome contract in all of baseball. That contract belongs to, of course, Vernon Wells.

To grimly remind Angels fans, Wells was acquired from the Blue Jays in January of last year in exchange for Mike Napoli (he of the .444 wOBA in 2011) and Juan Rivera. Oh, and the Angels received a mere $5 million to defray the cost of Wells’s contract. And speaking of cost, the Halos will pay Wells $63 million over the next three years.

Last season, Wells authored the worst numbers of his career, which raises the possibility that his contract will worsen from “thoroughly ill-advised” to “boondoggle of unimaginable dimensions.” To be sure, Wells is an intelligent, self-aware, funny, and occasionally excellent ballplayer, but he’s not worth what he’s being paid. That’s not his fault, but it’s reality. To put a finer point on it Wells, according to WAR, provided $1.4 million in on-field value in 2011 while being paid more than $26 million. Suffice it to say, that’s not a sound investment.

So the question for the Angels, who have legitimate designs on a championship this season, is not whether Wells will somehow be worth the money — he won’t be. Rather, the question is whether he can help them toward their greater goals. The answer, with a caveat or three, is yes.

First, the depths that Wells reached last season must be acknowledged: there’s simply no glossing over a batting line of .218/.248/.412. In large part, the problem was that Wells’s line-drive rate cratered to a career-worst 12.3%, which was also the lowest figure of any qualifying hitter last season. While there’s usually some year-to-year fluctuation with line-drive rate, this level of decline is troubling. But regard these splits …

vs. RHP in 2011 .187/.213/.356 11.3 LD%
vs. LHP in 2011 .284/.320/.531 14.5 LD%

Wells’ overall numbers hide the fact that he was utterly feckless against same-side pitching but highly effective against lefties. For his entire career, Wells has been substantially better in platoon-advantaged situations, and, while everything else at the plate seemed to fall apart last season, his ability to hit for power against left-handers remained intact. And therein lies his value going forward. But he has to be deployed in just such a conservative manner.

Far too often, organizations are reluctant to treat bad contracts as “sunk costs.” That is, a player with a large and expensive pact, even if demonstrably ineffective, continues to play regularly because … well, because of the imagined mandates of that large and expensive pact. That makes no sense, obviously. Players should play because they help the team win, not because they’ve been promised a sheik’s ransom.

Taking the wise tack with a bad contract normally means releasing the player, but with Wells it’s obvious he can still help a team, provided his role is carefully limited. In his current straits, that means endeavoring never giving him a high-leverage plate appearance against a right-handed pitcher. Wells, as mentioned, can hit lefties, so he’d make for a useful platoon partner with DH Bobby Abreu, who, tidily enough is about as bad against lefties as Wells is against righties. Wells can also man center in an emergency and perhaps be a defensive asset at the corners when needed.

The Angels will be a better team if top prospect Mike Trout is an every-day outfielder alongside Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos, but Wells, even with three other righty-hitting outfielders on the roster, still has a place on this team. Pair him with Abreu (at least until Kendrys Morales proves to be healthy and effective) and let him play the corners on occasion when a lefty’s on the bump for opposition. Realize, though, that Wells is no longer a major-league regular. He’ll never again provide value on the dollar, but he can help.

The Washington Nationals, despite being linked in the media to almost every high-dollar free agent, have had a somewhat quiet winter. As such, it’s tempting to dismiss them. After all, an 80-win team whose primary offseason addition is a Type-B free agent (Edwin Jackson) isn’t redolent of “contender.” In the Nats’ case, however, that’s precisely what they are: a contender.

To be sure, the Nats can’t be considered the favorites for a playoff berth, in part because they have the misfortune of playing in a division in which only one team — the Mets — can be brushed aside as a non-factor. But they’re in the fray, which is more than can be said for the remainder of recent franchise history.

Read the rest of this entry »

For last year’s edition of the Second Opinion, we — i.e. Carson Cistulli and Eno Sarris — offered dueling prospect lists to the reader. One (Eno’s) was a full fantasy roster composed exclusively of players from Keith Law’s 2011 top-100 prospect list; the other (Carson’s), a roster of rookie-eligible players who hadn’t appeared on said list.

The idea — in theory, at least — was to review each list at the end of the season, assess the fantasy value of each player on those lists, apply some kind of handicap to Eno’s list (to compensate for the advantage of picking from more highly rated players), and then announce a winner.

Unfortunately, owing to a lack both of effort and ingenuity, we did precisely none of those things.

Read the rest of this entry »