2010 Cincinnati Reds Preview

Rotation
Aaron Harang, RHP
Bronson Arroyo, RHP
Johnny Cueto, RHP
Homer Bailey, RHP
Micah Owings, RHP

Closers and Setup
Francisco Cordero, RHP
Nick Masset, RHP

Starting Lineup
Drew Stubbs, CF
Orlando Cabrera, SS
Joey Votto, 1B
Brandon Phillips, 2B
Scott Rolen, 3B
Jay Bruce, RF
Chris Dickerson, LF
Ramon Hernandez, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

After pitching 210-plus innings from 2005-2007, Aaron Harang has yet to pitch more than 185 frames. His strikeouts have also declined, and his walks have risen. Not a recipe for success. This former fantasy stud is no longer worth your time.

Player on the Rise

In 42 big league games, Drew Stubbs has stolen 10 bases. Stubbs was a stealing machine in the upper minors, and with playing time on his side he should be able to at least double his 2009 mark. Just keep in mind that he’ll pile up the strikeouts, which will also bring down his batting average.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Brandon Phillips – Elite
Joey Votto – Elite
Francisco Cordero – Average
Jay Bruce – Average
Johnny Cueto – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
2. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
3. Mike Leake, RHP
4. Todd Frazier, OF
5. Chris Heisey, OF
6. Brad Boxberger, RHP
7. Travis Wood, LHP
8. Zack Cozart, SS
9. Juan Francisco, 3B
10. Matt Maloney, LHP

Overall Team Outlook: Early in the offseason, the Reds organization was rumored to be cutting budget; after moving no one, though, it added to the payroll by signing Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman and veteran shortstop Orlando Cabrera. The team is looking to compete this year and beyond, and could make some noise in the NL Central if the pitching staff can improve and stay healthy.

The Starting Rotation: The Reds’ rotation will likely be its downfall at the start of the season, but could improve towards the second half. Aaron Harang is back for a seventh season in Cincy, but isn’t as good as he once was. A diminished ground-ball rate has killed him in recent seasons, and will need to improve if he wants to succeed. Bronson Arroyo will be looking to improve his strikeout rate and become a 2 WAR pitcher again in 2010. It seems like yesterday that Johnny Cueto was being called up to the big leagues, but this will be his third season in The Show. Like Arroyo, Cueto will be working on bringing his strikeout rate back to its past levels. Former No. 1 prospect Homer Bailey will be given another shot at the rotation, as will Micah Owings. Reinforcements could arrive after the All-Star break if the expected call-up of Aroldis Chapman actually happens. Also, former ace Edinson Volquez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but is a long shot to make enough starts to be valuable.

The Bullpen: Closer Francisco Cordero posted his fifth career 30-plus save season in 2009 and is back once again to lock down the ninth innings. In 2009, Cordero’s strikeout rate dropped below a batter per inning for the first time since 2002. Veteran Arthur Rhodes will be the lefty set-up man, and righty Nick Masset will handle the rest of the eighth-inning duties.

The Starting Lineup: First baseman Joey Votto will continue to anchor the Reds lineup and will be counted on to drive in runs. Votto’s .418 wOBA was fourth-best in the Majors last season. Brandon Phillips will also be back to spark the offense, in the batter’s box and on the base paths. After coming to the plate less than 400 times last year, Jay Bruce will try to turn in a full 2010 in right field. Bruce has an insane amount of power and will likely mash at least 20 homers again in 2010. Acquired late last season, Scott Rolen will be the Reds’ everyday man at third base and will be expected to play great defense and knock in base runners at the plate. Rolen is nearing his last lap, but he may have a good year or two left in him.

Chris Dickerson will attempt to playleft field, and his blazing speed will always make him an interesting and fun player to watch and root for, as well as have in your lineup. Veteran Orlando Cabrera will plug the hole at short for a year, with 2010 being his first season in the NL since he was traded to the Red Sox in 2004. After a decent rookie campaign, Drew Stubbs will get a shot as the full-time center fielder in 2010 and should make the best of it. Behind the plate, veteran Ramon Hernandez will look to turn in another unspectacular, yet solid, year.

The Bench: Paul Janish was looking forward to being the starting shortstop, but he will now be relegated to bench duty. Janish plays good “D,” but his bat has been far below replacement level to this point. Speedster Willy Taveras will be back-up in the outfield, and will likely be used as a pinch runner. Outfielder Wlad Balentien, catcher Ryan Hanigan, and utility man Drew Sutton will complete the crew on the pine.


2010 Cleveland Indians Preview

Rotation
Jake Westbrook, RHP
Fausto Carmona, RHP
Justin Masterson, RHP
David Huff, LHP
Aaron Laffey, LHP

Closers and Setup
Kerry Wood, RHP
Chris Perez, RHP

Starting Lineup
Grady Sizemore, CF
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
Shin-Soo Choo, RF
Jhonny Peralta, 3B
Travis Hafner, DH
Matt LaPorta, 1B
Michael Brantley, LF
Lou Marson, C
Luis Valbuena, 2B

Player in Decline

To be sure, Asdrubal Cabrera is a quality fantasy player. But his 2009 performance might be hard to repeat. He had a .362 BABIP, 20 points above his career average. There’s nothing wrong with targeting him, but expect a batting average closer to the .290 range than his .308 mark last year.

Player on the Rise

Looking for a cheap source of steals? Michael Brantley could be your man. The lefty batter won’t drive the ball, but he controls the strike zone and is a skilled base runner. Brantley swiped 46 bags at Triple-A last year. He’s an efficient base thief, too.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Grady Sizemore: Elite
Shin-Soo Choo: Average
Asdrubal Cabrera: Average
Matt LaPorta: Deep League
Justin Masterson: Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Nick Hagadone, LHP
5. Hector Rondon, RHP
6. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
7. Jason Knapp, RHP
8. T.J. House, LHP
9. Michael Brantley, OF
10. Alexander Perez, RHP

Overall team outlook: With Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez finding new zip codes last summer, the Indians organization is in full-blown rebuilding mode. The offense figures to be potent. However, the starting rotation is in disarray. There are talented arms on the cusp of the Majors and several more in the pipeline, but growing pains are inevitable.

The Starting Rotation: There might not be a less-settled unit in the Majors. Jake Westbrook, formerly a worm-killing, innings-eating control artist, looks to return from Tommy John surgery. His lack of whiffs limits his fantasy appeal, though. Have you seen Fausto Carmona’s sinker? He has lost all semblance of control since those midges swarmed him during the 2007 playoffs. Perhaps it was an omen. Speaking of sinkers, Justin Masterson has a nasty one that eats up righty batters. However, his low three-quarters release makes him vulnerable to lefties, and he must do a better job of limiting free passes.

David Huff is the best of Cleveland’s gaggle of low-upside lefties. His stuff isn’t great, but Huff has a strong minor league track record. Aaron Laffey, never one to miss bats, suffered an oblique injury and failed to paint the corners. Jeremy Sowers walked more batters than he whiffed last year, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher, too. Nothing to see here. Carlos Carrasco had an ugly big league intro, but he had a 3.30 K/BB ratio at Triple-A and has a nice fastball/change-up combo. The breaking stuff needs work. Mitch Talbot gets grounders and is stingy with the walks. He’s a big-league-ready fourth or fifth starter.

The Bullpen: Cleveland tossed considerable cash at Kerry Wood in free agency prior to the ’09 season, only to watch him struggle with his control and post a 4.15 FIP. His fastball was the culprit, as Wood’s mid-90s gas was 1.5 runs worse per 100 pitches than it was in 2008. Batters chose to let him back himself into a corner, swinging at few outside pitches. Wood should bounce back somewhat next year, but Chris Perez is breathing down his neck. Perez loses the strike zone at times, but the former Cardinals prospect has a sizzling fastball and slider, and punched out 10.7 hitters per nine frames last year.

The Starting Lineup: Matt LaPorta underwent hip and toe surgeries in October, so he might be behind as spring training opens. The key piece in the C.C. Sabathia swap, LaPorta has top-shelf power and a patient approach. Luis Valbuena showed more thump than expected, but he struggles against southpaws and will have to hold off Jason Donald. Though he’s likely to regress somewhat, Asdrubal Cabrera is a quality shortstop who added some steals to his game. Chopping the ball into the dirt more than 50% of the time, Jhonny Peralta had a power outage last season. He had trouble catching up to fastballs, as his performance against heat declined by a run per 100 pitches seen compared to 2008.

Michael Brantley has limited pop, but he’s a burner with a clue at the plate. You’ll never have another chance to acquire Grady Sizemore at a discount, so draft him and smile as he returns to his 2005-2008 level of production. He was hobbled by a sports hernia and an elbow injury last season, as well as a lower-than-usual BABIP. A healthy Sizemore is still a first-round talent. Shin-Soo Choo brings patience, power and surprising speed to the table. While he might not repeat 2009, he’s a well-rounded fantasy option. Travis Hafner is no longer a menacing slugger, and his aching shoulder continues to be a problem. However, Pronk did bounce back from an abysmal 2008 showing. Lou Marson has limited time to prove he’s more than a handy back-up backstop, as switch-hitting force Carlos Santana isn’t far off.

The Bench: Entering 2009, Andy Marte’s career was on life support. Once the pride of the Braves system, Marte devolved into a hacking mess, tanking in trials with the Indians in 2007 and 2008. Though still a free swinger, he raked at Triple-A last year and didn’t totally embarrass himself in the Majors. Trevor Crowe has some speed and a decent eye, but a lack of pop and injuries resign him to a back-up role. Donald scuffled at Triple-A last year while hindered by a knee injury. He could be Valbuena’s caddy against lefty pitching.


2010 Seattle Mariners Preview

Rotation
Felix Hernandez, RHP
Cliff Lee, LHP
Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP
Ian Snell, RHP
Jason Vargas, LHP

Closers and Setup
David Aardsma, RHP
Brandon League, RHP

Starting Lineup
Ichiro Suzuki, RF
Chone Figgins, 3B
Milton Bradley, LF
Jose Lopez, 2B
Casey Kotchman, 1B
Franklin Gutierrez, CF
Ken Griffey Jr., DH
Jack Wilson, SS
Rob Johnson, C

Player in Decline

Decline is too strong a word here, but expecting Chone Figgins to repeat his six-win season is too optimistic. He should remain a productive player, though.

Player on the Rise

Brandon League actually broke out last season, but few people seemed to notice thanks to his artificially-high ERA. If League maintains his new found splitter, watch out for him to start vulturing saves from David Aardsma and late inning wins from high-leverage situations.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Ichiro Suzuki: Elite
Felix Hernandez: Elite
Cliff Lee: Elite
Chone Figgins: Average
David Aardsma: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Dustin Ackley, OF
2. Michael Saunders, OF
3. Adam Moore, C
4. Carlos Triunfel, 3B
5. Alex Liddi, 3B
6. Nick Franklin, SS
7. Michael Pineda, RHP
8. Gabriel Noriega, SS
9. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B
10. Nick Hill, RHP

Overall team outlook:The Seattle Mariners, at the time of publication, appear to be right up there with Texas and Anaheim heading into the 2010 season as a roughly mid-80 win team. It’s been a winter full of activity for the Mariner front office and they’ve done a remarkable job of patching holes with limited outlay in the free agent market.

The Starting Rotation:The starting rotation is going to get the lion’s share of attention in 2010. Fronted by the newly extended Felix Hernandez and newly traded-for Cliff Lee, there is probably no better 1-2 in baseball on paper. Both are legitimate Cy Young candidates on their own, but in Safeco Field and in front of another year of stellar defense, it would not surprise us if they ended up in an Adam Wainwright-Chris Carpenter type of situation by the end of the year. Behind those two the picture is less clear.

Ryan Rowland-Smith can be a solidly average starter, and Ian Snell could be anywhere from awful to good depending on which version shows up. There are numerous candidates for the fifth spot in Doug Fister, Luke French, Garrett Olson, Yusmeiro Petit, and Jason Vargas, and the ones left out will help provide some decent depth both in the bullpen and in Triple-A.

The Bullpen: The bullpen appeared good last year, for a time leading the league in ERA, but it was never actually all that successful, getting by with good luck. David Aardsma was legitimately good, though, as were Mark Lowe and Shawn Kelley. All three return this year and should be bolstered by the addition of Brandon League, a dynamite reliever and another flamethrower. Four above-average righties give the Mariners pen some much better potential this season. Leftovers from the fifth starter competition, along with a few other names like Nick Hill, should round out the back of the pen.

The Starting Lineup: It’s not a menacing lineup on paper, and offense is not likely to be a strong suit for the 2010 Mariners, but there’s some upside here. Mostly, it’s upside over the 2009 team, which scored a league-worst 640 runs. Using 2009 totals to estimate 2010 performance is always a bad idea, since people tend to forget to regress those 2009 totals beforehand. Starting from scratch and building up projections focused solely on 2010 is always the best way to go. Doing so for the offense this season gives us an unexpected conclusion. While seemingly unimproved from 2009, the group of players project to score in the range of about 730 runs, a massive improvement. The reasons for this are an improvement in OBP among hitters and general regression away from the totals received at shortstop, third base, and left field, which were universally black holes for the 2009 team.

In addition to improved discipline at the plate, the Mariners lineup in 2010 is much better suited to the confines of Safeco Field. Both newcomers Milton Bradley and Chone Figgins are switch-hitters, giving manager Don Wakamatsu more flexibility and allowing the team to put as many as five hitters in the left-handed batter’s box, where Safeco actually helps offense.

The Bench: Bench depth could be a weak point for the Mariners. Carrying Ken Griffey Jr., whose only role is basically as a backup DH, hurts the flexibility that the starting lineup provides. To that end, the Mariners might consider carrying an 11-man pitching staff in order to add another bench slot. One of Adam Moore or Josh Bard will be the backup catcher, and Jack Hannahan and probably a yet-unsigned right-handed outfield bat will be in place to cover the other seven positions in the field.


2010 Colorado Rockies Preview

Rotation
Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
Aaron Cook, RHP
Jorge De La Rosa, LHP
Jeff Francis, LHP
Jason Hammel, RHP

Closers and Setup
Hustin Street, RHP
Rafael Betancourt, RHP

Starting Lineup
Carlos Gonzalez, CF
Clint Barmes, 2B
Todd Helton, 1B
Troy Tulowitzki, SS
Brad Hawpe, RF
Ian Stewart, 3B
Seth Smith, LF
Chris Iannetta, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

The easy answer is the 36-year-old Todd Helton, but he has skills (hitting for contact and line drives) that have traditionally aged well. Instead, there is a distinct possibility that Clint Barmes loses his everyday role. Barmes doesn’t walk, doesn’t have much power or speed, and strikes out a lot.

Player on the Rise

If Clint Barmes falters at all, speedster Eric Young Jr has shown he’s ready to get on base and run. He is a great sleeper for steals in fantasy this year. If Ian Stewart can harness the strikeouts a little, we know he has power, so he deserves a mention.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Troy Tulowitzki – Elite
Ubaldo Jimenez – Elite
Carlos Gonzalez – Average
Brad Hawpe – Average
Todd Helton – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Christian Friedrich, LHP
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
3. Tyler Matzek, LHP
4. Wilin Rosario, C
5. Hector Gomez, SS
6. Rex Brothers, LHP
7. Esmil Rogers, RHP
8. Eric Young Jr., 2B
9. Mike McKenry, C
10. Tim Wheeler, OF

Overall team outlook: Coming off of its second straight Wild Card postseason appearance, the Rockies have found an interesting and competitive mix of youthful promise and veteran leadership. Going forward, their unique situation will continue to be the struggle to put together a workable and affordable Coors-friendly pitching staff around their strong youth up the middle.

The Starting Rotation: Coming off his second four-plus WAR season, Ubaldo Jimenez is the unquestioned ace of the staff. His ability to consistently rack up ground balls and strikeouts bodes well for his future. Some projections have him returning to the higher walk rates of his early career, but after last year’s nice walk rate, a rosier outlook on Jimenez is defensible. Aaron Cook also uses a nice ground-ball rate to forge passable real-life production, but because of his strikeout rates is usually only usable in deeper fantasy leagues.

The returning Jeff Francis has showed promise but is coming off of shoulder injuries and never really showed standout ability in either the strikeout or ground-ball categories. Jorge De La Rosa is the ultimate wild card in terms of performance. Last year, the strikeouts and walks came in bunches, and he had the best season of his career… while putting up a 1.38 WHIP. In deeper leagues, the strikeouts are worth a pick, but in normal leagues De La Rosa is only a late round flier. Jason Hammel doesn’t do enough of anything to be very interesting. If Francis is not healthy, Franklin Morales and his still-existent upside may find himself back in the rotation.

The Bullpen: Huston Street had his regular health hiccups in 2009, but he returned to dominance with a double-digit strikeout rate and a miniscule walk rate. Even conservative projections have him putting up another excellent season in 2010 and only trepidation about his health, or the slight worry that Street gets traded to a team with a closer, should cause any hesitation for potential Street owners on draft day. Rafael Betancourt and Morales lurk should one of these scenarios bear fruit, with Morales the possible long-term option if the Rockies take a step back and need to look to the future.

The Starting Lineup: You’d have to think that his scorching second half last year earned Carlos Gonzalez the leadoff role permanently, especially since early returns have him better than Dexter Fowler defensively in center field. That pushes Fowler into a platoon with Seth Smith, and since Fowler does his best against lefties, it will take a Brad Hawpe trade to recover Fowler’s (admittedly strong) fantasy upside in the short term. Hawpe will eventually go, and then this will be an outfield that will sport great D, good speed, and power alongside their ability to get on base. Buy on all of the Rockies’ outfielders outside of the defensively limited Hawpe.

Clint Barmes hit second most of last year, but that spot in the order is volatile and will probably rotate during the year. Todd Helton is the old man among the boys whose production depends on how well his back holds up, but either way he has the powerful Ian Stewart ready to knock him in. Finally, Chris Iannetta could have some BABIP-induced bounceback next year, which would get his powerful but cheap bat into fantasy lineups in leagues of all sizes in 2010.

The Bench: The loser of the Fowler/Smith battle/platoon will find himself on the bench more than he’d like. Until Hawpe leaves, though, there’s also the talented, but so far underperforming, Ryan Spilborghs languishing on the bench. If Eric Young, Jr can play a passable second base, he should be starting (and stealing bases) as soon as this year. Bringing in Miguel Olivo the same year as signing Iannetta to a long-term contract was a little surprising. Hopefully Iannetta’s play will keep Olivo and his tiny walk rate on the bench, but if Olivo starts he’s at least interesting for his power.


2010 Detroit Tigers Preview

Rotation
Justin Verlander, RHP
Max Scherzer, RHP
Rick Porcello, RHP
Jeremy Bonderman, RHP
Nate Robertson, LHP

Closers and Setup
Jose Valverde, RHP
Joel Zumaya, RHP

Starting Lineup
Austin Jackson, CF
Carlos Guillen, DH
Magglio Ordonez, RF
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Brandon Inge, 3B
Ryan Raburn, LF
Scott Sizemore, 2B
Gerald Laird, C
Adam Everett, SS

Player in Decline

Brandon Inge’s HR/FB rate, 15.4%, was much higher than his career average entering 2009: 9.8%. A decline in home-run rate, and thus homer total, is likely. Inge will turn 33 in the 2010 season and played a big part of his career at catcher — a physically demanding position — so getting 637 PAs again is not a given.

Player on the Rise

The organization has a slew of potential breakout players and predicting exactly who will be bust out is impossible. But Scott Sizemore is definitely someone to keep an eye on. He has the opportunity – the starting second-base job – and had a solid 2009 in Triple-A.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Miguel Cabrera: Elite
Justin Verlander: Elite
Jose Valverde: Average
Max Scherzer: Average
Rick Porcello: Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Casey Crosby, LHP
2. Jacob Turner, RHP
3. Ryan Strieby, 1B
4. Alex Avila, C
5. Scott Sizemore, 2B
6. Daniel Fields, SS
7. Wilkin Ramirez, OF
8. Andy Oliver, LHP
9. Robbie Weinhardt, RHP
10. Cody Satterwhite, RHP

Overall team outlook: The Tigers club made a big trade to get younger and cheaper, but in so doing, it lost two keys players from its near-playoff team in ‘09. Still, the organization should have the talent to be competitive, though it may not be the favorite in a weak AL Central.

The Starting Rotation: Justin Verlander broke out in a big way in 2009, leading baseball with 269 strikeouts and tying with three other pitchers for the lead with 19 wins. He will be a top-10 fantasy pitcher in 2010. The Tigers traded No. 2 starter Edwin Jackson for a new, cheaper No. 2 in Max Scherzer. He has the potential to be even better than Jackson. Health is a concern with Scherzer, but when he is on the mound, he can be a top-of-the-rotation starter and strike out more than a batter an inning.

Rick Porcello was the beneficiary of some BABIP luck in 2009 and will probably not repeat his sub-4.00 ERA. Also, his low strikeout rate limits his fantasy value. Jeremy Bonderman is slotted into the rotation as this point, and he is probably worth a late-round flyer on the off chance he is healthy and regains his 2006 magic. Still, don’t count on it. Nate Robertson has the inside track for the fifth starter job (while Armando Galarraga, Dontrelle Willis and Phil Coke remain as other possibilities), but is an option only in deep AL-only leagues.

Bullpen: Newly acquired Jose Valverde will be handed the closing duties heading into 2010. He is a talented pitcher, and his history of saving games for Arizona and Houston gives him a longer leash if he struggles a bit. But if he goes down with an injury or experiences a sustained period of ineffectiveness, Joel Zumaya is probably first in line for his job, although Ryan Perry or Daniel Schlereth could be in the running if Zumaya cannot re-find the strike zone.

Starting Lineup: Miguel Cabrera qualifies at only first base now, but he hits more than enough to make up for it; he shouldn’t make it out of the first round in most drafts. After Cabrera, though, the rest of the Tigers’ lineup should probably be avoided in most 12-team mixed leagues. Magglio Ordonez, who should start in right, saw his power evaporate in 2009. He should see some improvement in 2010 but probably not enough (although he still hits for a good average). Ryan Raburn should get the job in left and, given a full year, has the power to hit 25 or more homers. Carlos Guillen will be the starting DH, though he qualifies in the outfield. Over the past two years he has had a hard time staying healthy and, when he has played, his numbers have been down.

Brandon Inge, Gerald Laird, and Adam Everett return to their positions in 2010, but none hits enough to justify consideration outside of AL-only leagues. Finally, the Tigers club will hand starting jobs to two guys who have no Major League at-bats: Austin Jackson will take over in center and Scott Sizemore will man the keystone. There is a good possibility of a rough initial adjustment period for both, but they offer some upside with the speed to steal some bases and at least some power.

Bench: Another rookie, Alex Avila, could get some time at catcher. For a catcher he has good power, so keep an eye on his playing time. Clete Thomas and Wilkin Ramirez could see time in the outfield, and if they do should get a fair number of steals. If Guillen is injured or ineffective then Jeff Larish could get some time at DH and has big-time power, but his average will not be pretty.


2010 Florida Marlins Preview

Rotation
Josh Johnson, RHP
Ricky Nolasco, RHP
Chris Volstad, RHP
Anibal Sanchez, RHP
Sean West, LHP

Closers and Setup
Leo Nunez, RHP
Dan Meyer, RHP

Starting Lineup
Chris Coghlan, LF
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Dan Uggla, 2B
Jorge Cantu, 3B
Cody Ross, RF
John Baker, C
Gaby Sanchez, 1B
Cameron Maybin, CF
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Dan Uggla. Don’t expect him to fall off the map entirely, but we are talking about a less-than-athletic player who has a good chunk of his value tied with whether or not he can stay at second base.

Player on the Rise

Ricky Nolasco is just too easy of a choice to pass up because of his shiny peripherals. Cameron Maybin is chock full o’ tools, but will need to be more aggressive on the base paths then he was last year to have a lot of fantasy value.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Hanley Ramirez: Elite
Josh Johnson: Elite
Ricky Nolasco: Average
Chris Coghlan: Average
Dan Uggla: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Michael Stanton, OF
2. Logan Morrison, 1B
3. Matt Dominguez, 3B
4. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
5. Chad James, LHP
6. Ryan Tucker, RHP
7. Bryan Petersen, OF
8. Scott Cousins, OF
9. Brad Hand, LHP
10. Isaac Galloway, OF

Overall Team Outlook: Say what you will about Jeffrey Loria’s slumlord ways, few teams can match The Fish in production per dollars spent. Perhaps that’s easy to do when you’re flipping stars with escalating contracts for top prospects, but maybe, just maybe, some low-budget teams could learn a thing or two about knowing when to deal from the Marlins’ pattern. In order to continue the success, the club will rely upon its young core of star players while hoping that other youngsters like Cameron Maybin find their stride.

Starting Rotation: Josh Johnson ascended into the rarefied air of “Ace” this past year, putting together a spectacular 5.5 WAR season. Johnson was the subject of many a trade rumor this past hot stove season, but after the MLBPA publicly shamed the Marlins organization for pocketing its revenue sharing money, the club gave Johnson a nifty four-year, $39 million extension. If there is any concern, ’09 was the first time Johnson ever approached the magical 200-inning threshold, so it will be interesting to see how he holds up next season. Behind Johnson is the enigmatic Ricky Nolasco, owner of the Jekyll-and-Hyde-iest FIP-ERA differential of 2009, and his performance re-opened a whole can of worms in the debate on the merits of using FIP when calculating a pitcher’s WAR. He posted golden strikeout and walk numbers, 9.49 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, but he finished the season with an ugly ERA of 5.06 despite a sterling 3.35 FIP. Will the real Ricky Nolasco please stand up?

After Johnson-Nolasco, the rotation picture gets clouded. The stinker, er, I mean sinker-balling Chris Volstad was third on the team in innings pitched with 159, and pitched at replacement level last year. Anibal Sánchez, Rick VandenHurk, Sean West, and Andrew Miller will fight for the remaining three spots. All four pitchers have promise, but for one reason or another they have been unable to live up to their billings. Sánchez made headlines when he threw a no-hitter back in 2006. He was the first rookie to do so since Bud Smith threw one in 2001. Sánchez’s pitching career unfortunately is going down the path of Smith’s, as he has not been able to stay on the field due to injuries.

Bullpen: I’m fishing for positives here and coming up empty (pun intended). Right now, the closer is Leo Nunez, a proud owner of a career 4.72 xFIP. Nunez was the worst closer in all of baseball in terms of WAR last season at -0.8 WAR, yet he managed to rack up 26 saves, which goes to show you how worthless of a stat saves really is. Behind him is a mixed bag of middling middle relievers that includes Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Reynel Pinto, Brian Sanches, Jose Veras, and Cristhian Martinez. To make things interesting, the Marlins invited Derrick Turnbow to spring training.

Starting Lineup: The offense starts and ends with Hanley Ramirez, the one Marlin even casual baseball fans know about. After “The Manley” there is Dan Uggla. This is one player the Marlins probably have waited a bit too long to trade, but most projections have him continuing his Three True Outcome ways in South Florida. Chris Coghlan wasn’t the sabermetric-group-think NL ROY of choice, but he was the BBWAA’s, and that’s all that matters, so suck it up! But I digress. A second baseman by trade, he’s in the outfield for now until/if/when Uggla gets traded.

To Coghlan’s credit, a .372 wOBA is nothing to sneeze at coming from a rookie, even if it was aided by a .366 BABIP. Expect some regression to the mean, but Coghlan will be a valuable cog in the lineup for years to come. Cody Ross is approaching the overrated zone after posting a 24-homer, 90-RBI season last year, but is a solid-average player, good for a .340-.350 wOBA with average-ish defense.

Jorge Cantu is in a similar class as Ross, sans the defense. He is an average player with gaudy RBI totals that make him overrated. At any rate, his defense is average at first, but if all goes well, he’ll be playing at third with Gaby Sánchez at first base. Sánchez bombed in his last spring training, and it led to manager Fredi Gonzalez losing his mind and giving Emilio Bonifacio more than 500 plate appearances before the organization traded for Nick Johnson.

Sánchez is somewhat of a poor man’s Nick Johnson, although that comparison might be a bit of a stretch; he doesn’t hit for power, but he has good plate discipline and draws a fair share of walks. He posted a .378 wOBA in the graveyard that is Zephyr Park in Triple-A New Orleans while Bonifacio hogged up all his playing time while playing at replacement level. Did you know that John Baker and Ronny Paulino teamed up to form a 4 WAR platoon at the catcher position for Florida last season?

Finally, the wild card is Cameron Maybin. The graceful and athletic Maybin, not Coghlan, was predicted to run away with the NL ROY. He ended up stumbling out of the gate and getting sent to Triple-A, where he reclaimed his uber-prospect status. His projections diverge greatly, but all he has to do is be league average as a hitter to offer value to Florida, thanks to his solid defense.

Bench: Brett Carroll might be the new Gabe Gross, in that he’s a minus with the bat, but is so freakishly good at defense that he merits his fair share of playing time. I’ve already touched on Paulino and Bonifacio. Jai Miller is a strikeout machine but has decent power and can play solid outfield defense. Wes Helms, Brian Barden, and Danny Richar will battle for who is the less fungible infielder in spring training.

I’m thankful for Michael Jong of MarlinManiac. com, whose suggestions were invaluable in penning this preview.


2010 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

Rotation
Brandon Webb, RHP
Dan Haren, RHP
Edwin Jackson, RHP
Ian Kennedy, RHP
Billy Buckner, RHP

Closers and Setup
Chad Qualls, RHP
Juan Gutierrez, RHP

Starting Lineup
Kelly Johnson, 2B
Stephen Drew, SS
Justin Upton, RF
Mark Reynolds, 3B
Adam LaRoche, 1B
Conor Jackson, LF
Chris Young, CF
Miguel Montero, C
Pitcher

Player in Decline

It’s hard to think of Conor Jackson in decline at the age of 27, but it’s more his role that’s in decline than anything else. With the presence of Parra in the fourth outfielder’s role, Jackson is likely to see a reduction in his playing time in left field.

Player on the Rise

As mentioned, the move from the AL East to the NL West should certainly do Ian Kennedy some good. His durability is in question to some degree but he should prove a good WHIP, respectable ERA and a modest K-rate.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Justin Upton – Elite
Dan Haren – Elite
Mark Reynolds – Elite
Brandon Webb – Average
Edwin Jackson – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP
2. Brandon Allen, 1B
3. Bobby Borchering, 3B
4. Mike Belfiore, LHP
5. A.J. Pollock, OF
6. Chris Owings, SS
7. Marc Krauss, OF
8. Matthew Davidson, 3B
9. Cole Gillespie, OF
10. Collin Cowgill, OF

Team Outlook: The return of its ace will certainly help the club, and the team has a shot at the NL West title based on the starting rotation. However, the offense is nothing to write home about. On the plus side, though, none of the teams in the division are overly improved, and the Dodgers organization has never been more vulnerable, thanks to the ongoing storyline away from the diamond.

The Rotation: A healthy Brandon Webb, returning from shoulder surgery, will help anchor a rotation that sees some new, youthful faces join the fray. Webb is expected to be at full strength in April, but it remains to be seen how durable he’ll be over the course of the season. Dan Haren is one of the best No. 2 starters in all of baseball. He’s also one of the safest bets for both 200+ innings and strikeouts. Edwin Jackson comes over from Detroit and he should find the National League more to his liking. You can’t argue with his pure stuff, but Jackson is still searching for consistency and command of his heater. Ian Kennedy is a perfect sleeper for 2010, as his stuff will play much better in the NL and he appears to be over his health issues. The fifth spot is still open, but Billy Buckner is the favorite for the spot.

The Bullpen: After saving 24 games with a 3.14 FIP in ’09, Chad Qualls enters 2010 as the early favorite for saves if he’s recovered from knee surgery. He has a good chance of saving 30+ games. If he falters, the club’s options are limited after trading prospect Daniel Schlereth to the Tigers. Juan Gutierrez filled in for Qualls when he hurt his knee (nine saves in 10 tries), so the right-hander is probably first in line. Veteran right-handers Bob Howry (66 career saves) and Aaron Heilman were both brought in during the offseason to help solidify the relief corps. Clay Zavada, a second-year player, should be the go-to southpaw.

The Starting Lineup: The club lacks a true leadoff hitter at this point. Both Chris Young and Stephen Drew could hit near the top of the order, but neither is well-suited to the role due to their poor on-base numbers. Young also strikes out far too much to be an effective leadoff hitter, but he does have some speed. The club might try Kelly Johnson near the top of the order, too, although he’d probably benefit from hitting in the No. 8 hole. The heart of the order will consist of Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds and Adam LaRoche, a free-agent acquisition. It remains to be seen where Conor Jackson fits in to the lineup. Both LaRoche and Jackson should provide a little more protection for Reynolds than he received in ’09. The club should receive above-average offense from the catching tandem of Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder. However, it’s also possible that, if Snyder can prove himself healthy in the spring, he’ll be traded, which will clear the way for John Hester to assume the back-up role. Reynolds and Upton provide the bulk of both speed and power in the lineup; a rejuvenated Young could also be tossed into that group.

The Bench: As mentioned, Montero and Snyder should split the catching chores, with Montero receiving the bulk of the work. Ryan Roberts was earmarked for the second-base job before the club brought in Johnson, so the former Jays prospect should now serve as an offensive-minded utility player. Veteran Augie Ojeda was also retained and should have the other infielder job, but he’ll be pushed by both Tony Abreu and Rusty Ryal. In the outfield, Jackson’s return will likely shift Gerardo Parra to a fourth outfielder’s role, but he should play all over the outfield and receive significant playing time.


2010 Atlanta Braves Preview

Rotation
Derek Lowe, RHP
Tim Hudson, RHP
Tommy Hanson, RHP
Jair Jurrjens, RHP
Kenshin Kawakami, RHP

Closers and Setup
Billy Wagner, LHP
Takashi Saito, RHP

Starting Lineup
Nate McLouth, CF
Martin Prado, 2B
Chipper Jones, 3B
Brian McCann, C
Troy Glaus, 1B
Yunel Escobar, SS
Melky Cabrera, RF
Matt Diaz, LF
Pitcher

Player in Decline

Chipper Jones provides an easy answer, but his age and health risks are all tied into his lowered price tag these days. Jair Jurrjens, on the other hand, has a high price tag and some luck-related statistics that may go the other way and detract from his value in 2010.

Player on the Rise

Everyone is wondering about Jason Heyward, who has considerable upside but may run into an adjustment period as a young Justin Upton did before him. Jordan Schafer could surprise if he has put that adjustment period behind him and is ready to cash in some of his potential.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Brian McCann – Elite
Tommy Hanson – Average
Billy Wagner – Average
Jair Jurrjens – Average
Chipper Jones – Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B
3. Julio Teheran, RHP
4. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP
6. Randall Delgado, RHP
7. Mike Minor, LHP
8. Zeke Spruill, RHP
9. Christian Bethancourt, C
10. Cody Johnson, OF

Overall team outlook: After 14 straight years of playoff appearances, any year without extra games is considered a failure in Atlanta. Then again, this team seems to be coming together nicely with a combination of the fruit of the club’s prodigious talent development system and some decent free-agent acquisitions. The Braves will be interesting in 2010.

The Starting Rotation: Because of their veteran status, Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe remain the titular No. 1 and No. 2 pitchers in the rotation. However, both have shown decline and Hudson is coming off of Tommy John surgery. Though both veterans could provide some nice bounce-back value in the short term, the “real” top two starters on this team are wunderkind Tommy Hanson and the surprising Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens doesn’t quite do it with smoke and mirrors, but there’s been some luck in his numbers and he may come back to earth a little. He’s already a risk because of his lower strikeout rates.

Though the departed Javier Vazquez had a top-five season among NL starters last year, this team always seems capable of coping with loss. Even fifth starter and Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami was decent last year, and Jo-Jo Reyes and Kris Medlen are the young swingmen that have shown promise in the upper minors.

The Bullpen: Replacing two young studs like Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with old men like Billy Wagner and Takaishi Saito seems like two large steps in the wrong direction, but in terms of real-world baseball, the decisions were laudable. Instead of sinking long-term money into a fungible position, the team has two reliable veterans on short-term contracts. This could all work out and create the bullpen of a contender, or it could fall apart and the team will see a lot of Peter Moylan. Either way, the club won’t be on the hook for a ton of bullpen salary in 2010.

The Starting Lineup: Nate McLouth returns and gets a chance to improve on his poor Turner Field numbers, and he’ll be followed by a lineup that could shape up to be strong in 2010. Martin Prado gives us no real reason to doubt his natural progression and development, Chipper Jones is stellar when he’s in the lineup, and catcher Brian McCann is a young stud with real power at a premium position.

Where Troy Glaus lands depends on how his surgically repaired shoulder holds up, but as recently as 2008, Glaus was a powerful corner infielder. He could easily return to his old status. Yunel Escobar doesn’t do any one thing at a superstar level, but he has enough on-base skills to supplant a struggling Prado and enough power to fill in for an injured Glaus. He might hit anywhere in this lineup, as he did in 2009. The outfield is still up in the air, with as many as five candidates for the corner outfield positions. Melky Cabrera does just enough to guarantee at-bats, and Matt Diaz is a lefty killer at the very least. Beyond that, projecting the corner outfield in Turner Field is a mystery in 2010.

The Bench: Depending on what happens with wunderkind Jason Heyward, the outfield is in a state of flux. Cabrera and Diaz could platoon if Heyward makes the team, and that would be the best use of their talents. If one is pressed into a full-time role, that means Jordan Schafer is getting a shot to recoup his former status as a rising star. Eric Hinske backs up the corners and could be useful if Glaus isn’t healthy. Gregor Blanco can play all over the outfield, and Omar Infante will back up the infield, but neither should be relevant in most fantasy leagues.


2010 Baltimore Orioles Preview

Rotation
Kevin Millwood, RHP
Jeremy Guthrie, RHP
Bradley Bergesen, RHP
Brian Matusz, LHP
Chris Tillman, RHP

Closers and Setup
Mike Gonzalez, RHP
Jim Johnson, RHP

Starting Lineup
Brian Roberts, 2B
Adam Jones, CF
Nick Markakis, RF
Miguel Tejada, 3B
Luke Scott, DH
Garrett Atkins, 1B
Nolan Reimold, LF
Matt Wieters, C
Cesar Izturis, SS

Player in Decline

Garrett Atkins wasn’t exactly a world-beater in 2009 with Colorado (posting a wRC+ of 67), and, yes, his .247 BABIP was considerably below his career average. That said, Atkins’ home/away splits over his career suggest that he’s unlikely to provide the sort of production a first baseman ought to.

Player on the Rise

Pick a pitcher, any pitcher. Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Brandon Erbe, and Jake Arrieta are all poised to produce at the Major League level sooner than later. Matusz probably has the most polish right now, though, and CHONE agrees: 4.59 ERA, 7.20 K/9, 3.42 BB/9.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Brian Roberts: Elite
Nick Markakis: Elite
Adam Jones: Average
Miguel Tejada: Average
Luke Scott: Deep League

Top 10 Prospects
1. Brian Matusz, LHP
2. Josh Bell, 3B
3. Brandon Erbe, RHP
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
5. Zach Britton, LHP
6. Matt Hobgood, RHP
7. Brandon Snyder, 1B
8. Caleb Joseph, C
9. Kam Mickolio, RHP
10. Mychal Givens, SS

Overall team outlook: Though unlikely to compete in 2010, the Orioles organization is building a core of young, talented players who will make the team interesting for the next few years. In the meantime, a couple of curious veteran signings are bound to raise questions about the savvy of the front office.

The Starting Rotation: New acquisition Kevin Millwood will be the nominal No. 1 in 2010, and the move from Texas might have a somewhat tonic effect on his numbers. Jeremy Guthrie lost 17 games in 2009, and, even more worrisome, saw his strikeout rate fall below 5.00 K/9 and ground-ball rate below 35%. CHONE projects a slight rebound, but the outlook isn’t fantastic. Brad Bergesen isn’t necessarily a sweet fantasy play with his 4.5 or so strikeouts per nine, but he avoids walks and gets ground balls at about a 50% clip, which should give him success as a Major Leaguer.

Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman were, until last year, the most promising pitching prospects (say that five times fast) in the organization. This year, the O’s hope that they develop into the most productive pitchers on the staff. Despite an underwhelming 100 innings in 2009, David Hernandez remains an interesting case, due to his excellent minor league strikeout numbers.

The Bullpen: Flush with cash entering the offseason, Baltimore signed Mike Gonzalez to two-year deal worth $12 million. Gonzalez has fantastic stuff – there’s no ignoring it – but the wisdom of such a decision is questionable, as (a) Gonzalez is an injury risk, and (b) that sort of money might’ve made sense elsewhere on the roster. Jim Johnson closed games last year after Baltimore shipped George Sherrill to Los Angeles. Reliever Cla Meredith has a wacky 67.1% ground-ball rate for his career.

The Starting Lineup: Brian Roberts remains a fixture at the top of the Baltimore lineup. CHONE and ZiPS both like him to sustain about a .360 OBP and steal 30 bases. Adam Jones is in a race with Chris Tillman to embarrass former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi, who orchestrated the Erik Bedard trade a couple seasons ago. He raked last year before injury curtailed his production. Nick Markakis’ 113 wRC+ last year didn’t live up to his excellent 2008. He’s signed through 2014, so the Baltimore front office will be crossing their collective fingers.

Miguel Tejada returns to the site of at least some of his conquests. His walk rate slipped to troublingly low levels in Houston. Basically, as his batting average goes, so goes Tejada. Acquired by Baltimore in the trade that sent Tejada to Houston in the first place, Luke Scott is a useful piece – and a better fielder than the DH label would suggest. Oh, Garrett Atkins. Nolan Reimold took advantage of his first shot at Major League pitching, posting a 123 wRC+. An Achilles injury apparently harassed him for much of last season. Not everyone believes in God; Matt Wieters, on the other hand… Cesar Izturis is hanging around for his glove. He’s actually been worth about a win afield each of these last three years.

The Bench: Ty Wigginton is a unique back-up infielder in that he plays all infield positions with equal levels of mediocrity. You can say this for him: he can hit. As Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold dealt with injury last season, Felix Pie demonstrated why he was once a highly rated prospect in the Cubs’ system, flashing the leather to the tune of 6.9 runs above average in less than half of a season’s worth of playing time. He enters 2010 as Baltimore’s fourth outfielder.


2010 Chicago White Sox Preview

Rotation
Jake Peavy, RHP
Mark Buehrle, LHP
Gavin Floyd, RHP
John Danks, LHP
Freddy Garcia, RHP

Closers and Setup
Bobby Jenks, RHP
J.J. Putz, RHP

Starting Lineup
Juan Pierre, LF
Gordon Beckham, 2B
Mark Teahen, 3B
Paul Konerko, 1B
Carlos Quentin, RF
Alex Rios, CF
A.J. Pierzynski, C
Alexei Ramirez, SS
Andruw Jones, DH

Player in Decline

Paul Konerko played in 30 more games in 2009 than the previous year, which made his counting stats go up. But his BB/K, LD% and HR/FB rates all declined. The guy who averaged a .291-39-110 line from 2004-06 is but a distant memory.

Player on the Rise

Gordon Beckham came up and held his own as a 22 year old last season. Six of his 14 homers came in the final month of the year and a 25-homer season is within reach if he can take advantage of his home park. Beckham hit just four homers in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular last year.

Top 5 Fantasy Players
Jake Peavy: Average
Gordon Beckham: Average
Carlos Quentin: Average
Alexei Ramirez: Average
Bobby Jenks: Average

Top 10 Prospects
1. Tyler Flowers, C
2. Daniel Hudson, RHP
3. Jordan Danks, OF
4. Jared Mitchell, OF
5. Brent Morel, 3B
6. Dayan Viciedo, 3B
7. C.J. Retherford, 2B/3B
8. Clevelan Santeliz, RHP
9. Trayce Thompson, OF
10. David Holmberg, LHP

Overall team outlook: The White Sox finished 12th in the American League in runs scored last season and will feature an overhauled offense in 2010. The club said goodbye to Jim Thome late last year and let Jermaine Dye go after the season. Chicago hopes its new imports can lead to a more versatile and balanced attack to support a pitching staff that should be one of the best in the American League.

The Starting Rotation: Jake Peavy won all three starts he made for the White Sox down the stretch and takes over as the staff ace. He battled injuries to his ankle and elbow last year but, when healthy, the former Padre is one of the top starters in the game. Mark Buehrle has always given the club innings and, for the past three seasons, he has also given consistency, as he has averaged a 3.75 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Gavin Floyd had better peripherals in 2009 but worse results. His FIP was a full run lower than in 2008 but he dropped from 17 to 11 wins. In his final 21 starts of the year, John Danks had a 3.21 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Freddy Garcia and rookie Daniel Hudson will battle for the fifth starter’s job. Garcia’s velocity is heading towards Buehrle territory but his slider is once again an outpitch. Hudson jumped from Class-A to the Majors last year and showed a good fastball (93.4 mph) in his limited action. He has a 10.6 K/9 in two years in the minors.

The Bullpen: Despite rumors to the contrary, the White Sox kept Bobby Jenks as their closer, inking him to a new deal and avoiding an arbitration hearing. Last year, Jenks saw a rebound of his K rate. Unfortunately, he also saw his HR/FB rate more than triple. But the real reason for his struggles was a tough July, when he allowed seven earned runs in 7.1 innings pitched, all without a homer allowed. In early August, Jenks passed a kidney stone. He finished the season with a 2.50 ERA in his final 17 games, despite allowing three homers in that stretch. Chicago inked J.J. Putz to be a set-up man/back-up closer while Matt Thornton, Tony Pena and Scott Linebrink add quality depth.

The Starting Lineup: The White Sox brought in Juan Pierre to be the leadoff hitter and he replaces Scott Podsednik. Pierre was productive when he led off for the Dodgers, but it remains to be seen if he can thrive in the lineup where Podsednik had just 75 runs in 132 games. Chicago hopes to recoup some lost power with full seasons from Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin. Despite playing in one of the best home-run parks in baseball, the White Sox were league average in homers last year and may struggle just to reach that mark in 2010. They will need better production from Alexei Ramirez, newcomer Mark Teahen, and late-season addition Alex Rios, who flopped in his brief time in Chicago last year.

A.J. Pierzynski is in the final year of his contract, likely his last with the White Sox, as top prospect Tyler Flowers is all but ready to take over. Perhaps the biggest change in the team is at designated hitter. After several years of having Thome man the position, manager Ozzie Guillen plans to use the spot among several people, with newcomer Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay expected to get the bulk of the time. Guillen also hopes to use the spot to give regulars a partial day off. Thome led the club with a wRC+ of 127 last year, a number the club will struggle to replace.

The Bench: The White Sox will have a veteran bench, with 42-year-old Omar Vizquel joining holdovers Kotsay (34) and Ramon Castro (34) and newcomer Jones (33). Jayson Nix (26) brings some youth, along with the ability to play both the infield and outfield. Because of the versatility of Kotsay, who can play first base and the outfield, and Nix, the White Sox have flexibility in their final bench spot which could be filled with Brent Lillibridge, Alejandro De Aza, or potentially even Flowers as a C/DH.